Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 08:39

Austin wrote:What happens if as part of final peace deal , Assad is deported to Iran or Russia.

Will the current Moderate & Extremist beheaders will co-exits peacefully or will this end up in Libya like scenario ?

What happens to the minorities like Shiah , Christians ( what ever still left ) and Alawites in Syria will be allowed to live peacefully ?

you know the answer. even among the rebels themselves, its the more hardline who are always better armed, better funded and dominant. it will be like LTTE wiping out rest of tamil groups.

Libya will look like a picnic once the massacres start.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 08:40

daily some 5-10 turkiye soldiers/police are killed by PKK, who also lose some people daily. a mix of IEDs and direct assaults on isolated outposts.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 10:40

China, Russia Have Same Views on Syria, Afghanistan - Foreign Minister

https://en.ria.ru/politics/20161010/104 ... istan.html

China and Russia hold the same position on the most important international and regional issues, including on Syria and Afghanistan. The sides, being permanent members of the UN Security Council, continue close cooperation on international and regional issues," Li told a briefing.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 13:13

Us has put 3 ddg there to bait the yemenis per reports.
Perhaps launch locations will be passed back to saudi af

By Phil Stewart | WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - A U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer was targeted on Sunday in a failed missile attack from territory in Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, a U.S. military spokesman told Reuters, saying neither of the two missiles hit the ship.

The attempted strike on the USS Mason, which was first reported by Reuters, came just a week after a United Arab Emirates vessel came under attack from Houthis and suggests growing risks to the U.S. military from Yemen's conflict.

The U.S. government, which has become increasingly vocal about civilian casualties in the war, this weekend announced a review of its support to a Saudi Arabia-led coalition battling the Houthis after a strike on mourners in the capital Sanaa that killed up to 140 people.

The failed missile attack on the USS Mason began around 7 p.m. local time, when the ship detected two inbound missiles over a 60-minute period in the Red Sea off Yemen's coast, the U.S. military said.

"Both missiles impacted the water before reaching the ship," Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said. "There were no injuries to our sailors and no damage to the ship."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 13:14

Atleast one of the ddg took some passive soft kill measures per the same report but no sam used

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 10 Oct 2016 13:37

Looks like uncle is looking to get involved in another middle eastern war. Or else no reason to act as a Bait.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 14:25

Lot of elders from northern tribes and sanaa elites got killed....this was best function hall there.

Saleh has called for a great patriotic war rodina style against the saudis all along the border.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 14:28

What the usa is upto in this war is a mystery other than selling even more arms to saudis.

Perhaps the bogey of a russo iranian proxy atop the bab el mandab straits has been sold by saudi funded neocon think tanks

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 10 Oct 2016 15:00

Singha wrote:Atleast one of the ddg took some passive soft kill measures per the same report but no sam used

we just got lucky, that's all. next time could be different.

no dazzler is perfect.

I don't care how much they practice and test.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 15:06

Cmon c802 vs a uprated ddg51..its like a local thug vs a pro league boxer..not even a salvo just 2 weak punches.

The captain must have been confident enough not fire ram essm just relied on ew and floating decoy to safely splash it with active weapons on standby.

Not sure the fire site even had a solution on target..probably just fired it into general area based on thuraya call from a spy trawler...maybe other saudi yemeni ships moving around were the target

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 16:10

The missile seems to have felt short of target range and fell in the water much before hitting the target , iirc this has happened before as well.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 16:13

I think this is perhaps the most important development in Syrian conflict in recent past , the Russians are now most certainly for a long haul in Syria.

Russia plans permanent naval facility in Syrian port of Tartus – MoD

The Russian facility in Tartus has long been used to resupply Russian warships during Mediterranean Sea missions.

“We are going to have a permanent Navy base in Tartus. We have prepared the paperwork, which is now being reviewed by other government agencies. The documents are pretty much ready, so we hope to submit them to you for ratification soon,” General Nikolay Pankov, deputy defense minister responsible for communication with other parts of the Russian government, told the Federation Council, Russia’s senate

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 16:17

This development is now beyond Assad and conflict, This is the first permeant base for Russia outside its own territory , so far Tartu's had the status of just a replenshment base.

Now the Russians will get more troops , infra and berthing facility beyond a pier , clearly indicating decades of deployment at Tartus

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 10 Oct 2016 16:55

I read recently top general of Iran saying - Syria is paramount to our survival. If Damascus (Assad) goes, Iran will fall. We will never let it happen!

What are Trump's views on Syria conflict? Hillary's views we know

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 17:08

France threatens Damascus & Moscow with ICC war crimes probe over Aleppo

https://www.rt.com/news/362229-france-t ... cc-aleppo/

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit France on October 19. He and his French counterpart, Francois Hollande, will not just be trading pleasantries, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said.

"We do not agree with what Russia is doing, bombarding Aleppo. France is committed as never before to saving the population of Aleppo," Ayrault told France Inter radio.

Meanwhile, President Hollande said in an interview with TMC television that he was having doubts as to whether to meet with Putin when he visits Paris on October 19.

“The population [of Aleppo] is the victim of war crimes. Those who commit these acts will pay for this responsibility before the international court of justice," Hollande said.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Oct 2016 17:15

Trump said: "Aleppo has basically fallen already". And he laid it out clearly: The Syrian government is fighting the ISIS, the Russians are fighting the ISIS. Obama is supporting some rebels, but has no idea what they are or what they are doing.

IOW, the first US politician to dare to tell the truth even halfway.

Clinton lied through her canines as usual: "The Russians and Syrians have never attached the ISIS" (duh! Palmyra?) Showed that she is just a vicious, snarling liar. Should have seen the expression in her eyes when the artificial canine-baring 'smile' was not on. Trump to his credit, doesn't try any artificial smiles at all.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 17:33

whats with French though , Would they complain to ICC about Saudi Strike in Yemen ? Or US invasion of Iraq where many thousands got killed ?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Oct 2016 17:43

Trying to appease the Ummah and Usa at the same time? Preparing for killary-Huma regime when those will be the same?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 Oct 2016 17:46

Syrian newer Mig-29 seen with R-77

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2172617.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 19:17

Syrians are fighting isis palmyra . East homs. Deir azzor. Qalamoun. Parts of damascus province. And jund al aqsa of iblib and hama is daesh front too.

The inactive areas east of aleppo toward al bab and deir hafr will heat up once city falls.

The isis defeated saa on another front the famous bull run from ithriyah to tabqah afb.

Nobody is fighting isis in so many areas as saa

Next is sdf who fight one front one battle at a time. First shahdadi then manbij now creeping to al bab. Sinjar too.

Next are the turki hordes whose fight with isis is half sham half pingpong. Same ppl hv been ided in both uniforms

Second Last is amrika in terms of fighting isis in syria

Last is the loudmouth hollande with his 10 rafales

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 10 Oct 2016 19:38

Singha wrote:Last is the loudmouth hollande with his 10 rafales

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 10 Oct 2016 19:50

Second Last is amrika in terms of fighting isis in syria

Both FOR and AGAINST, 2 b fair

A few brave Special Forces soldiers putting their lives on the line on the ground in Eyeraq fighting ISIS, while their bosses send F-16s to support ISIS attacks in Syria and their bosses' allies and bijnej partners bomb the Kurds whom the Special Forces are helping.

What a crop we have ruling America!!

kit · Post by **kit** » 10 Oct 2016 20:06

Was thinking what Trump or Billary would do

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Oct 2016 21:01

The iraqi element run by brett mcgurk are likely the same ones working with ypg in syria and helping on mosul front.

The rest of it are 3 letter agency and rogue faction shows.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 11 Oct 2016 00:14

Singha wrote:I believe the houthis are sunni.

No, they are Zaidi Shias.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 11 Oct 2016 00:41

Austin wrote:whats with French though , Would they complain to ICC about Saudi Strike in Yemen ? Or US invasion of Iraq where many thousands got killed ?

To be fair they were a big thorn in the side of the GWB/Neocon rush to war in Iraq in 2003, and a major reason why the CoW couldn't be cobbled together under UN auspices. Remember "Freedom Fries"?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 09:54

yemen has hit the king fahd airbase outside Taif city with multiple ballistic missiles

this video captures some of the explosions

https://twitter.com/Hamosh84/status/785244589619904513

emergency services rushing to the scene

https://twitter.com/Hamosh84/status/785245740192989184

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 09:57

The 'Nimr' Tiger ‏@Souria4Syrians Oct 9
Ashrar Al Sham spokesman: we haven't agreed to anything, we will fight Jund Al Aqsa child molesters until we completely annihilate them

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 09:58

Taif to yemeni border is around 700km , to sanaa is 1000km so these would have to be proper SCUDs operated by the yemeni army not modded SA-2/3 types or Tochkas with various armed tribes.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 10:01

Al masdar:

Among the dead in the funeral bombing on Saturday were notables straddling the country's many political divides, threatening to harden the will of powerful armed tribes around the capital who may make common cause with the Houthis.

"Despite all the massacres that have happened in this war, attacking a funeral is unprecedented and crosses a major red line in Yemeni culture," said Farea al-Muslimi, an analyst at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic studies.

"The air strikes killed powerful people, and their tribes and families will be drawn closer to the Houthis as they all try to retaliate.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 10:04

17 generals were killed, 12 injured - it was a deliberate decapitation strike

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 10:06

well well...

Haykal Bafana ‏@BaFana3 10h10 hours ago
"Yemen bases will establish Russian control over Red Sea, Persian Gulf & Gulf of Aden shipping routes & put us in range of Diego Garcia."

agitpapa Retweeted
Haykal Bafana ‏@BaFana3 10h10 hours ago
"We are negotiating cautiously establishing a naval logistics base in Yemen, in return for our support in the war."
Anonymous, Russia.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 10:09

http://english.almanar.com.lb/59145

Yemen rocketry force fired a homemade ballistic missile on Saudi airbase in Taif, in retaliation for the horrible massacre committed against Yemeni taking part in a funeral in the capital Sanaa last Saturday.

Yemeni military source reported that the rocketry force in the Yemeni army and the popular committees fired “Burkan -1” (Volcano) missile at dawn on Monday.

Surveillance units in the army and the popular committees stressed that the missile has accurately hit its target in King Fah Airbase, the source said.

Ambulance vehicles rushed to the scene of the attack, as fear and confusion prevailed in the area surrounding the airbase following the attack, according to the source.

Meanwhile, the Yemeni source said that the attack on the Saudi airbase come in retaliation for the horrific massacre which killed and injured more than 800 Yemenis on Saturday.

“Burkan” is a Scud missile developed by the Yemeni rocketry force. The missile range surpasses 800 km, with its warhead weighs half a ton.

The video below shows the moments when “Burkan” missile hit King Fahd Airbase.

^^ click the link for video - seems they had a cellphone spy onsite to capture the fall of shot.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 10:12

^^ seems like more than one missile hit as the one above did not do anything major while the first one caused a chain of explosions.
makes sense as the scud is not noted as greatly accurate, so better to fire off a few on the same area of the airbase (fuel , ammo, flight line) and hope one of them hits a juicy area.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 10:16

Rift between Saudi and Egypt over Syria

In the meanwhile, Saudi-Egypt relations not going well, particularly due to differences over Syria:

https://twitter.com/EgyIndependent/s...36684217421825

Saudi UN envoy harshly criticised Egypt for voting in favour of Russian UNSC Syria resolution

https://twitter.com/yeh1a/status/785133620608589824[b]

Breaking: ARAMCO, the largest oil company in Saudi Arabia, announced that they will stop to supply Egypt with oil products. [/b]

https://twitter.com/BTelawy/status/785433497829797888[b]

Saudi learning the hard way that its regional alliances/partnerships can't deliver: Turkey won't antagonize Iran; Egypt won't let Assad down[/b]

https://twitter.com/emile_hokayem/statu ... 1011057665

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 10:18

Egypt faces consequences of voting for Russian peace resolution
http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2016/10/1 ... esolution/

Tension erupted between Saudi Arabia and Egypt after the latter voted in favour of the draft resolution from Russia in the United Nations security council on Saturday.

Following Egypt’s vote, the Ministry of Petroleum said that Aramco, a governmental Saudi oil company, has suspended its oil aid to Egypt; however, the five-year agreement between them is still in effect.

Egypt defends backing Russian draft on Syria

http://gulfnews.com/news/mena/egypt/egy ... -1.1909390

Egypt, a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, shrugged off the criticism.

“Egypt backs all efforts aimed at stopping the Syrian people’s tragedy. It voted for both resolutions based on their content, not political bidding that has become a hindrance to the Security Council’s work,” Egyptian Ambassador to the UN Amr Abul Atta said.

“Egypt voted for halting deliberate targeting of Syrian civilians, backing for humanitarian access and cessation of hostilities according to relevant Security Council resolutions,” Abul Atta added, according to Egyptian official.

The Egyptian official blamed what he called “differences” among the Security Council’s permanent members for the body’s failure to take effective decisions on Syria.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 10:36

BBC:Russia's top spin doctor in nuclear warning

A Russian takes a long time to harness a horse, but then rides fast," said the news anchor, quoting a famous Russian saying.

By "riding fast", Kiselyov was referring to a string of recent Russian military deployments:

Last week, Moscow sent three warships from the Black Sea Fleet to the Mediterranean: on board, cruise missiles that can carry nuclear warheads
Russia deployed nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles into the Kaliningrad region bordering Poland
The Russians announced they would send 5,000 paratroopers to Egypt for military exercises
Moscow also suspended three nuclear agreements with the United States

Kiselyov said that in recent days there had been a "radical change' in the US-Russian relationship.

Moscow was taking action, he said, because of "the loud talk in Washington of a 'Plan B' for Syria. Everyone understands what this plan means: direct military force in Syria against President Assad's forces and the Russian military".

In Washington, the US state department said last week it was continuing internal deliberations about "non-diplomatic" options regarding the war in Syria

In News of the Week, a Russian defence ministry spokesman warned American bombers not to target the Syrian army. Kiselyov put it more bluntly: "We'll shoot them down," he explained.

Is this bravado? Bluffing? Or is there a real danger of a direct military confrontation between Russia and the US?

In recent days several Russian newspapers have been talking openly about the possibility of such a clash.

"There is a reason that Russia has deployed S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Syria," Izvestia commented last week.

"Moscow is ready to use them. This won't spark a world war. After all, we've shot down American planes before, in Vietnam and Korea [in Soviet times]. Vladimir Putin is making it clear that Russia will make no more concessions [in Syria]."

And Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs warned that "this is the most dangerous situation since the Cold War".

"In the Cold War, confrontation was based on understanding of 'red lines'. Today this is not the case.

"Most likely no-one wants to launch a big collision between Russia and the United States. But this is exactly the case when unintended consequences might emerge."

To some in Moscow, Russia is merely reacting to Western aggression.

"There is a campaign to hit Russia everywhere possible," believes retired Lt Gen Yevgeny Buzhinsky. He cites Western sanctions against Moscow and even the banning of Russia's Paralympic team over doping allegations.

"Of course there is a reaction. As far as Russia sees it, as Putin sees it, it is full-scale confrontation on all fronts. If you want a confrontation, you'll get one."But it won't be a confrontation that doesn't harm the interests of the United States. You want a confrontation, you'll get one everywhere."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Oct 2016 11:16

its in hot-peace situations like these that being truly independent in mil industrial terms pays off. only the P2 can play these kind of games and still have their entire mil food chain more or less intact from sanctions to back that up. Cheen will get there once it gets the engine thing under control.

as for Yindia

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Oct 2016 11:35

Singha wrote:its in hot-peace situations like these that being truly independent in mil industrial terms pays off. only the P2 can play these kind of games and still have their entire mil food chain more or less intact from sanctions to back that up. Cheen will get there once it gets the engine thing under control.

as for Yindia

Cheen does not depend on Western Engine and their dependencies are on Russian Engine for modern figher , J-10/20/21 etc and for older types they manage to reverse engineer the engine and build it.

Yes a self sufficient MIL is the first and critical step in Independent Foreign Policy , China and Russia have that as the basic ingredient. Look how French banned Mistral Sale and Russian said FU and moved on because its not critical and their own yards can build one . Now Imagine Rus Air Force with Rafale or Mirage or someother foreign fighter , Imagine what a blanket ban would mean to their independent FP ?

Yes India will now build another single engine Imported fighter and claim we have Independent Foreign Policy.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 11 Oct 2016 11:36

It will make more sense for Russia to retaliate by shooting of Scuds and Cruise missiles under the Cover of Houthis into Saudi Arabian Oil Fields and Refineries. That will damage the Saudis who are primary drivers of this war and also help Russia by raising oil prices.