Understanding the United States of America (USA) - III

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 00:22

deleted

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 02:47

Stats for you. A very good read.

How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

Glad they clarified. This one poll had me wondering.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Oct 2016 03:43

Quoting Mark Twain "There are lies, damned lies, and Statistics!"

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 03:52

I thought he said "There are lies, damned lies, and Analysts".

No?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 03:57

These numbers are from Wisconsin. Starting Thu and polled thru' Fri (tape released) + Sat + Sun, to end just prior to the debate.

Would be interesting to see the numbers this Thu-Sun.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 04:07

Ohio:

“A large percentage of Ohio’s electorate is most passionate about who should not be president,” said Tom Sutton, Ph.D., BW political science professor and director of the BW CRI. “The core support for each of the major party candidates has stayed largely unchanged, but the bad news for Trump is that more of the undecideds—and some third party supporters—who are now coming off the fence are moving to Clinton.”

I think that is the trend across the board. Trump has managed to hold on to his base.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 04:17

The Polls Are All Wrong. A Startup Called Civis Is Our Best Hope to Fix Them

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 13 Oct 2016 04:51

NRao wrote:I thought he said "There are lies, damned lies, and Analysts".

No?

The term was popularised in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

source

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 05:39

Would be interesting to see the numbers this Thu-Sun.

Let's give Trump a week of attacking Paul Ryan

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Oct 2016 05:50

NYT was reporting today that some Republicans who had abandoned Trump were returning.

Evangelicals were still miffed.

I guess they can stomach Hillary win.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Oct 2016 05:57

There is an interesting point to consider. BO won by using text messages and direct appeals to people to come out and vote. Typically, the donkeys don't come out to vote easily, while the elephants generally come out, having more freedom on the job etc.

What happens if HC is reported as being 10 points ahead? Why would they come out to vote?

Then again, the elephants are so divided I don't know what they are going to do - may get wiped out in COTUS too.

I DO hope that happens to a lot of the T-Party Hitler Jugend.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 05:58

It is getting even more ugly...and threatens to slide even more.

two people are out there talking about 'sexual assault'...

like bill cosby...more folks are going to come out.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Oct 2016 06:03

Oh, wow! Looks like Ecuadoran Embassy will need a new wing to house Trump as well as Assange. The Deep State can bring these sorts of charges against anyone on demand, looks like. Why now, when the Huffington Post had reported some such story back in January and June?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 06:43

Good thing there was a tape for the 'locker room talk'. or maybe that was also manufactured by this 'deep state'. god forbid that trump is actually an ahole.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 06:49

some beauty pageant contestants have also said that he walks into change rooms, startling the women in different stages of undress and some totally naked.

he himself bragged about this on howard stern, years ago.

must be the deep state planning that recording years ago, to use now.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 06:53

Trump lawyers given court date over lawsuit alleging rape of 13-year-old

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Oct 2016 06:57

Come on! The guy has been around all these years, and these people just decided to sue him for sexual assault now? yes, it's as bogus as it gets. Same as happened to Assange.

As for the "locker room tape": That was a conversation with two participants. One was Trump, a real estate tycoon. Boorish, ill-bred, etc etc. The other was Billy Bush, nephew of President Gee-Dubya, grand-nephew of President Bush the 1 and Barbara Bush. Scion of one of THE oldest and most famous families in America.

Why is language that is appropriate for the Scion, not appropriate for the boorish real estate peddler?

And oh! Only one of the participants in that private conversation was boor enough to report that 11 years later. The Scion. American civilization at its classic best.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 07:04

His problem is that many will be unwilling to give him the benefit of doubt after what he has demonstrated over the last year, and especially what folks have heard/seen on tape. Also, it is quite likely that more material comes out over the next 3 or so weeks. By many accounts its out there so its really a matter of something leaking or oppo getting theirs hands on it.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Oct 2016 07:10

Yeah, but the pity is that this is one guy who would have brought out a lot of truths that the Deep State never allows revealed.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 07:11

Deja vu

Two Women Say Donald Trump Touched Them Inappropriately

Former Miss Arizona Says Donald Trump Walked in on ‘Naked’ Pageant Contestants

Going to be part of the diplomatic protocol.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 07:15

Roger Stone and Steve Bannon are going to go thermonuclear...Time to work those "backchannels" with Assange.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 07:22

Too late. Julie must be leaking:

Dixon’s comments echo a recent CNN KFile report that uncovered audio of Trump discussing the perks of owning beauty pageants with Howard Stern back in 2005.

“I’ll go backstage and everyone’s getting dressed, and everything else, and you know, no men are anywhere, and I’m allowed to go in because I’m the owner of the pageant and therefore I’m inspecting it,” Trump told Stern. “You know, I’m inspecting because I want to make sure that everything is good.”
Also Read:
Twitter Trolls Trump After He Tells Supporters to Vote on November 28
Dixon added, “I’m telling you Donald Trump owned the pageant for the reasons to utilize his power to get around beautiful women. Who do you complain to? He owns the pageant. There’s no one to complain to. Everyone there works for him.”

18 year olds.

Yeah. Vote for him.

What next? Invite men with beautiful spouses and daughters to the WH?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 07:33

Guess this was prior to yelling and screaming at the NYT reporter:

Trump Thinks Election Day Is November 28

With only 29 days to go until Election Day, the clock is ticking for both presidential candidates to encourage their supporters to register to vote, especially because some registration deadlines are fast approaching in many states. During a rally in Panama City, Florida, on Tuesday, Donald Trump urged people in the state—which just got its registration deadline extended because of Hurricane Matthew—to register and then vote on Election Day.

Unfortunately, he got the date wrong.

"Make sure you get out and vote November 28," he said. "We've gotta win."

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 07:42

UlanBatori wrote:Come on! The guy has been around all these years, and these people just decided to sue him for sexual assault now? yes, it's as bogus as it gets. Same as happened to Assange.

As for the "locker room tape": That was a conversation with two participants. One was Trump, a real estate tycoon. Boorish, ill-bred, etc etc. The other was Billy Bush, nephew of President Gee-Dubya, grand-nephew of President Bush the 1 and Barbara Bush. Scion of one of THE oldest and most famous families in America.

Why is language that is appropriate for the Scion, not appropriate for the boorish real estate peddler?

And oh! Only one of the participants in that private conversation was boor enough to report that 11 years later. The Scion. American civilization at its classic best.

you are so high on opinion but low on what's going on.

Billy Bush was suspended from his TV thing.

Clearly the network thought the guy who played along was not fit for TV.

But you think the main guy is fit for prez.

Btw, do you also think Bill Cosby is innocent because all those women came out decades late?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 07:46

brar_w wrote:Roger Stone and Steve Bannon are going to go thermonuclear...Time to work those "backchannels" with Assange.

Roger Ailes - another fine "just a boorish news peddler", whose offenses were such that he had to be booted out of the network that he started from scratch and grew into an empire

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 07:49

NRao wrote:Guess this was prior to yelling and screaming at the NYT reporter:

Trump Thinks Election Day Is November 28

With only 29 days to go until Election Day, the clock is ticking for both presidential candidates to encourage their supporters to register to vote, especially because some registration deadlines are fast approaching in many states. During a rally in Panama City, Florida, on Tuesday, Donald Trump urged people in the state—which just got its registration deadline extended because of Hurricane Matthew—to register and then vote on Election Day.

Unfortunately, he got the date wrong.

"Make sure you get out and vote November 28," he said. "We've gotta win."

meh, that could be just a slip of the tongue..

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Oct 2016 08:16

And, of course, true Trumpism:

Donald Trump threatens to sue New York Times over sexual harassment report

First threat was when NYT published part of the tax returns.

Now this!!

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 08:24

UlanBatori wrote:Yeah, but the pity is that this is one guy who would have brought out a lot of truths that the Deep State never allows revealed.

Like what? The Kenyan hospital that Obama was really born in?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Oct 2016 10:07

brar_w wrote:His problem is that many will be unwilling to give him the benefit of doubt after what he has demonstrated over the last year, and especially what folks have heard/seen on tape. Also, it is quite likely that more material comes out over the next 3 or so weeks. By many accounts its out there so its really a matter of something leaking or oppo getting theirs hands on it.

There's been a lot of stuff on Trump out there for a long time in interviews that he gave. It is the biased MSM which is following the Killary camp's orders to bring it out as so called "new" material now. The goal is not to influence the undecided or fluid voters, but to keep Trump supporters like EJs at home.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Oct 2016 10:25

https://twitter.com/wikileaks

RELEASE: The Podesta Emails Part 5 (673 new emails) #HillaryClinton #PodestaEmails #PodestaEmails5 https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/?5 ... archresult …

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Oct 2016 10:26

MSM has been very tight lipped about wikileaks shows how much control Clinton has over these media , Even our NDTV is going full retard and bashing Donald Trump and not a single work about Hillary or wikileaks

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 13 Oct 2016 10:39

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 13 Oct 2016 12:20

From someone whom we hate,but i thought he makes good points about funding,support groups and political processes

It appears a civil war has broken out in the GOP. It is easy to understand why this is happening, the GOP congressional leadership made a deal with Donald Trump when they made him the party nominee. The some terms of the deal are now active but the GOP does not seem to be in a position to fully divest itself of Donald Trump.

Based on news reports at the time I think the deal went something like this - you do what you can to bring your fans over to the party's voter rolls and we will support your brand. The fine print in the deal was - if Donald Trump starts alienating the GOP existing voters, then the GOP backs out. The flag set on this was Hillary's lead over Donald Trump in the polls. If Donald Trump fell below Hillary by 7 points - the GOP would move to secure its needs and abandon the Trump campaign.

The basic rationale of the GOP for making the deal was that the Donald Trump supporters were not really part of its voting ranks. They were the ones making weird stances at rallies and they were clearly easy to sway with emotional reactions, but these were not people you could count on to turn up to actually vote.

Donald Trump for his part promised to make them all turn up to vote. He directed his machine to start registering voters and reaching out to people to make sure that they came to the polling both or cast early ballots. Unfortunately for Donald Trump - there really is no Trump organization - he has never invested any money in one or raised money to build one. The result was his directives to the organization - were basically directives to nowhere. The GOP's internal surveillance people picked up on this disconnect very early on and told him to fix that - it seems like he didn't actually do it.

An added problem arose when the release of the lewd comments tapes and the ensuing mishandling of the issue by the Trump campaign created a massive 10+ point lead for Hillary over Donald. This automatically activated the "Abandon Trump" clauses of the deal and the GOP top leaders began to distance themselves from Donald Trump. The GOP's financiers began to slowly back out of pledges for campaign support [1].

The rank and file of the party and lower tier GOP leaders however were not in a position to action on these clauses. In the last decade as the GOP's voter base struggled to cope with a black man being president, a number political opportunists jumped into the party. They saw this voter disaffection as a means to launch themselves into a position of influence inside the GOP. This group of opportunists saw Trump as a great chance to topple the existing GOP leadership and seize control of the main organs of the party. It is these people that are making it hard for the GOP to detach from the Trump campaign.

The naivete of these opportunists is something to be seen to be believed - it appears these people are operating under the assumption that the massive financial support for GOP causes which comes from personal pledges by long time leaders to special interest group will simply flow to them just because they are the new guard. The opportunists don't understand that is not how it really works.

For his part now with the "Abandon Trump" clauses in action - Donald Trump has two choices. He can either try to sound conciliatory and recover the lost support of the GOP. This would be a significant distraction from his main campaign task of attacking Hillary Clinton. Or he can abandon the GOP leadership and push ahead with the task of consolidating his base. The latter move will likely cost him the election but it might secure his brand against the catastrophic losses it would endure if he failed in the election despite GOP support.

I am not really sure what strengthening Donald Trump's brand this late in his life will do. At most he will be like Sumner Redstone - living and nominally in control but ruled by random special interest groups who basically buy airtime by engaging expensive legal teams to sue each other. I also echo Mark Cuban's question - what is the point of running a mass market engagement when you have a *premium* brand? none of these people you are drawing to your rallies are going to buy your premium products. At best they will buy mass market stuff but the royalties from those are shaky at best. Typical margins on those products are ~ 5% at most compared to the 30-50% you get from a premium brand. Why would you do this? It is one thing to broaden a brand portfolio - but it is completely another thing to shoulder ridiculous risks for no clear gains.

For the GOP - this civil war is going to cause a major split that has been some years in the making. It could be that the older established GOP people will keep their seats this time around but in the GOP's core will pull a way and try to establish its own political presence (with or without Donald Trump). Kind of like a Tea Party 2.0. It isn't clear that formation will sustain but the GOP will have to spend a lot of time restructuring itself.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Oct 2016 14:01

Clinton will win election, but expect ‘nasty time’ for the markets, David Stockman says

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Oct 2016 14:11

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37639839

mr trumps list of past exploits continues to get longer

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 15:01

This may be why his favorite 'fall back' option of threatening to sue may not be credible this time -

A lawyer for Trump similarly threatened to sue The Times when it published several pages of his 1995 tax return earlier this month.
If the Trump campaign does proceed with lawsuits, it will give both the Times and the Post the opportunity to pursue discovery and request information on Trump's entire sexual history, because Trump would have the burden of proving falsity and actual malice.

Gus wrote:
NRao wrote:Guess this was prior to yelling and screaming at the NYT reporter:

Trump Thinks Election Day Is November 28

meh, that could be just a slip of the tongue..

No, No, the Nov. 8 is actually a MSM plot to confuse Trump supporters. The real election is on Nov. 28

Also, NBC is reporting that the campaign which once boasted of fighting in NY and CA, is pulling all resources from VA [ A state that practically any other republican would have been competitive in even though it would still have been tough for the GOP]...We should be hearing more about it in the next couple of days.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Oct 2016 15:31

Where Do Clinton And Trump Have The Most Upside?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 16:40

Austin wrote:MSM has been very tight lipped about wikileaks shows how much control Clinton has over these media , Even our NDTV is going full retard and bashing Donald Trump and not a single work about Hillary or wikileaks

Every channel covered the recent leaks. The left leaning covered it second news after first news of Trump allegations. The right leaning ones did vice versa.

And why should Indian channels talk about the emails. Peoples eyes glaze over and they nod off or change channels. Pussy grabbing will drive TRP. Guess what any Indian channel will do?

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 13 Oct 2016 16:44

Do American channels go into the dull and voluminous details of Indian politics or just go for the saucy eyeball grabbing stuff (from American pov) - the beef, the riots etc

That's the nature of these things. What's the surprise here

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 13 Oct 2016 16:59

Gus, speaking of being high on "what's going on" (and your immediate resort to personal attack is right along the line of thinking there, sorry to have to say that..), this thing about Behavioral Correctness is way out of hand.

1) Most of these Bees Saal Baad Revealers have no evidence (which is understandable, but no excuse for tarring someone ignoring the presumption of innocence in every individual case)
2) The number of "abusers" by these metrics is probably close to 30 percent of US and global population. Starting with the ex-Pope.
3) These are OBVIOUSLY politically motivated "revelations" that have little to do with whether someone will do their jobs.
4) In Cosby's case it was about robbing an 80-year old who was basically too old and weak to defend himself. Race had a lot to do with that one, so there is some relief that it is happening to someone like Trump. Classic piranha attack, though.
5) Same with Assange - that was SO clearly Deep State Department.
6) Yes I did hear that Billy Bush has been "suspended" from whatever news dump, but I am just pointing out that the sort of conversation about which all CNN is heaving and eye-rolling, is perfectly normal and usual AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF AMERICAN SOCIETY. In private.

If people keep falling for this nonsense, they will keep electing the worst mass murderers - look at Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Georgia (I mean Oiropean), Ukraine... What will the world map look like after 8 years of Hillarity? OK, one can ask the same of Trumanzees, but the debate has completely shifted out of substance and into this sort of nonsense.

Lavrov had it right.

There are SO MANY *******s on both sides in this election campaign