'Make in India' Single engined fighter

[ShauryaT]

Indian MIC need a financier and that is not the GoI.

I find this logic strange. The GoI pays for the acquired products. GoI has the power to create incentives and tax structures to attract capital to wherever they desire. It will be right to say GoI does not have the funds to sustain a decrepit DPSU infrastructure AND incubate a private MIC and keep both going at the same time. The right answer here is to disinvest and believe there is enough private capital to rise up to the effort IF GoI makes this intention clear and executes against the expected political opposition.

[shiv]

Indian MIC need a financier and that is not the GoI.

I find this logic strange. The GoI pays for the acquired products. GoI has the power to create incentives and tax structures to attract capital to wherever they desire. It will be right to say GoI does not have the funds to sustain a decrepit DPSU infrastructure AND incubate a private MIC and keep both going at the same time. The right answer here is to disinvest and believe there is enough private capital to rise up to the effort IF GoI makes this intention clear and executes against the expected political opposition.

Shaurya what we need is expansion of capacity, not a lateral shift of ownership coupled with a long term contraction in government investment as pvt sector expands.

[hanumadu]

The government cannot fund the new private factories - they can give sops, concessions and tax breaks. Those new factories cannot be built without investment. Where will that investment come from? That investment can come from abroad, but those who invest will want profits. They can make profits if their product has a market. The Indian military is a ready made market because it is still starved of quality stuff - being dependent on PSUs who are inefficient and cannot deliver in quality of quantity, but cannot be shut down.

By getting foreign investment to set up defence manufacturing units the government does not have to expand the PSU base and pay more government employees with perks and sops for their entire lifespan.

Why can't the govt fund the private defence factories, especially given the urgent and strategic need for them? Some body already said on this thread that the upfront cost can be recovered from the profits made. Some things cannot be measured in terms of profit or loss. How much investment is needed? We are no longer that hard put up for money. Look at the money the govt is spending on infrastructure when private investors are reeling under debt and unwilling to commit more money.

The investment from abroad is not free. The govt will have to spend much more in acquiring anything that comes out of those private investors' factories. Look at the chinese govt. It finances foreign governments to buy its products and Indian govt cannot finance its own strategic industry. 30 million per a 4+ generation plane. India should vendor finance every body who wants a light fighter plane.

[Indranil]

I read through the last few pages, and one theme seems to run through the supporters of a line for a new imported fighter: the Indian industry is not ready to manufacture LCA fast enough for IAF requirements. Yet that same industry is magically capable of manufacturing an imported fighter at speeds that has never been witnessed in India.

Can't you guys not see how circular your logic is? An imported fighter or LCA, the manufacturers would build to specifications or blueprints. If they can be quickly trained to build to F-16/Gripen blueprints, then with the same ease they can learn to build parts for LCA. I have a genuine request by supporters of F-16/Gripen for India. Please create a list of technologies that will allow the manufacturing of F-16/Gripen faster than LCA in India. Or create a list of technologies that India will have (which it currently doesn't) thanks to a Gripen/F-16 line. And please don't repeat the crap about AESA radar/engine.

Can't you guys see what is actually happening, SAAB/LM is trying to get orders in lieu of LCAs, and IAF, GoI and you all are supporting the same. I love GoI and IAF, but I can't support them in this. It makes no sense to me.

[Marten]

I'd like to wager not one of the posters talking about getting in foreign ancillary or component manufacturers actually knows a real person in India who does this for a living. It is arduous and painful primarily because the numbers are very low and orders are in fact not guaranteed. Getting into this field is for the fools. Anyone dealing with DPSUs or Labs will also know that payments require some amount of pushing (can't say what type), and that most retired folks turn to contracting and make money while quite a few qualified cos do not even attempt getting into the space due to such environmental constraints. I know two sad cases - private small entrepreuners, one of whom passed away and the baton has been handed over to his nephew who will probaby shut shop in a few years thanks to the lack of steady orders. The larger vendors are still capable of managing with exports for other products. This is the primary problem that needs to be solved. Given access to technology and firm orders, there are quite a few folks who would happily take up the high end of what we call hi-tech manufacturing. Applying learnings from software or electronics is quite muddled thinking.
PS: Sorry IR, saw your post as I was submitting mine.

[Cybaru]

I have a genuine request by supporters of F-16/Gripen for India. Please create a list of technologies that will allow the manufacturing of F-16/Gripen faster than LCA in India. Or create a list of technologies that India will have (which it currently doesn't) thanks to a Gripen/F-16 line. And please don't repeat the crap about AESA radar/engine.

+1

[shiv]

I read through the last few pages, and one theme seems to run through the supporters of a line for a new imported fighter: the Indian industry is not ready to manufacture LCA fast enough for IAF requirements. Yet that same industry is magically capable of manufacturing an imported fighter at speeds, that has never been witnessed in India.

The industry is not going to manufacture LCA or any foreign fighter.

It will be screwdrivergiri done in India in Indian sheds on Indian land with Indian workers. Anyone who thinks that fighters can be produced fast by importing technology is deluding himself. Anyone who thinks that LCAs are going to come out faster than 16 a year starting around 2018-19 is contradicting what the HAL MD and the defence minister are saying

[shiv]

I'd like to wager not one of the posters talking about getting in foreign ancillary or component manufacturers actually knows a real person in India who does this for a living. It is arduous and painful primarily because the numbers are very low and orders are in fact not guaranteed. Getting into this field is for the fools.

In fact the only way to do this is to import outright initially while calling for suitable Indian industry partners who claim to possess the skills to do that to see if they can do it. In fact private industry in India are also not stupid. They will strike a deal with some company in Germany to make the stuff (or at least components) and assemble/repackage and sell here.

Medical equipment companies are masters in this game. Generally some small German (or phoren) company will set up an India office who will simply sell under his label. That German company gets orders that he is not getting in Germany and is undercutting someone else in Europe or Japan or some place like that. The servicing will be done by Indians in India

Over the course of time some of the more innovative Indians will cut off the OEM and sell their own copies, or they will have a two tier system of "imported" and "local"

[hanumadu]

Can't you guys not see how circular your logic is? An imported fighter or LCA, the manufacturers would build to specifications or blueprints. If they can be quickly trained to built to F-16/Gripen blueprints, then with the same ease they can learn to build parts for LCA. I have a genuine request by supporters of F-16/Gripen for India. Please create a list of technologies that will allow the manufacturing of F-16/Gripen faster than LCA in India. Or create a list of technologies that India will have (which it currently doesn't) thanks to a Gripen/F-16 line. And please don't repeat the crap about AESA radar/engine.

Also what are the qualifications and skills that are lacking in India. PhDs, Engineers or shop floor technicians. How can they be trained? How long will it take to train them? Do we have people to train them? Can we import them if we do not have them?

[Indranil]

I'd like to wager not one of the posters talking about getting in foreign ancillary or component manufacturers actually knows a real person in India who does this for a living. It is arduous and painful primarily because the numbers are very low and orders are in fact not guaranteed. Getting into this field is for the fools. Anyone dealing with DPSUs or Labs will also know that payments require some amount of pushing (can't say what type), and that most retired folks turn to contracting and make money while quite a few qualified cos do not even attempt getting into the space due to such environmental constraints. I know two sad cases - private small entrepreuners, one of whom passed away and the baton has been handed over to his nephew who will probaby shut shop in a few years thanks to the lack of steady orders. The larger vendors are still capable of managing with exports for other products. This is the primary problem that needs to be solved. Given access to technology and firm orders, there are quite a few folks who would happily take up the high end of what we call hi-tech manufacturing. Applying learnings from software or electronics is quite muddled thinking.
PS: Sorry IR, saw your post as I was submitting mine.

No apologies required. I am completely with you. We have real problem on our hands. There is monopoly in the DPSUs. There is institutional inertia outside and no financial reason to get into anything other than the business of screwdrivergiri. Many scholars have said that if one has to solve the problem, identify the problem first, and then solve it. We have identified and the problem and instead of going through the pains of solving it, we are going for a "fast" solution, yet another line of screwdrivergiri.

[Indranil]

Can't you guys not see how circular your logic is? An imported fighter or LCA, the manufacturers would build to specifications or blueprints. If they can be quickly trained to built to F-16/Gripen blueprints, then with the same ease they can learn to build parts for LCA. I have a genuine request by supporters of F-16/Gripen for India. Please create a list of technologies that will allow the manufacturing of F-16/Gripen faster than LCA in India. Or create a list of technologies that India will have (which it currently doesn't) thanks to a Gripen/F-16 line. And please don't repeat the crap about AESA radar/engine.

Also what are the qualifications and skills that are lacking in India. PhDs, Engineers or shop floor technicians. How can they be trained? How long will it take to train them? Do we have people to train them? Can we import them if we do not have them?

I look at Tata Advanced Systems with enormous admiration. There are others too like Bharat Forge, Alpha designs, Astra microwave, Samtel etc. These companies are building to blueprints, ahead of schedule and on budget. But one has to make a financial case for it. Indian govt. should place an order for 400 LCAs and mandate that they should be produced within 15 years. If these 20 billion dollar offer is made, just see how quickly things come up. Instead, we would give the FRench 8 Billion and somebody else another 20 Billion. The Indians have to keep building like khaadi gram udyogs.

[ks_sachin]

I'd like to wager not one of the posters talking about getting in foreign ancillary or component manufacturers actually knows a real person in India who does this for a living. It is arduous and painful primarily because the numbers are very low and orders are in fact not guaranteed. Getting into this field is for the fools. Anyone dealing with DPSUs or Labs will also know that payments require some amount of pushing (can't say what type), and that most retired folks turn to contracting and make money while quite a few qualified cos do not even attempt getting into the space due to such environmental constraints. I know two sad cases - private small entrepreuners, one of whom passed away and the baton has been handed over to his nephew who will probaby shut shop in a few years thanks to the lack of steady orders. The larger vendors are still capable of managing with exports for other products. This is the primary problem that needs to be solved. Given access to technology and firm orders, there are quite a few folks who would happily take up the high end of what we call hi-tech manufacturing. Applying learnings from software or electronics is quite muddled thinking.
PS: Sorry IR, saw your post as I was submitting mine.

No apologies required. I am completely with you. We have real problem on our hands. There is monopoly in the DPSUs. There is institutional inertia outside and no financial reason to get into anything other than the business of screwdrivergiri. Many scholars have said that if one has to solve the problem, identify the problem first, and then solve it. We have identified and the problem and instead of going through the pains of solving it, we are going for a "fast" solution, yet another line of screwdrivergiri.

It is very depressing....

[shiv]

When it comes to small components - whether single items like rings/pipes or whether they are assembled from multiple parts - the industrial ecosystem in Europe and USA typically will have a dozen or more companies who are capable of doing the work. If company X gets a big order from Airbus or Boeing, company Y and Z have lost out. These guys will always be ready to team up with an Indian businessman and supply stuff under his name to India provided he does the India groundwork. it is win win for both but it does not mean technology infusion into India unless the Indian entity goes one step further and starts making the stuff they are importing. Some companies do that. Some don't. I have done business with both types.

[GShankar]

Question - did something similar happen with Volvo too? Or was it sold lock, stock and barrel to Chinese?

Volvo Aero was sold to a UK based company.

I was referring to your comment about the conditions put on TML on the JLR acquisition - like neither production nor technology is to be transferred to India (rather out of UK). On the same vein, I am not sure whether volvo had any worthwhile technology that could be useful for geely.

With regards to Technology control after an acquisition:

In hindsight, JLR have developed new aluminium chassis and engines. I am sure (rather hopeful) quite a few indians, especially from TMETC would have been part of the process and they could be brought back to India for KT, etc. to qualitatively improve TML products.

But not sure how Geely benefitted by new R&D in volvo, especially their two newest vehicles s90 and xc90 have been considered good overall.

PS: Ignore if this discussion is OT.

[JayS]

I'd like to wager not one of the posters talking about getting in foreign ancillary or component manufacturers actually knows a real person in India who does this for a living. It is arduous and painful primarily because the numbers are very low and orders are in fact not guaranteed. Getting into this field is for the fools. Anyone dealing with DPSUs or Labs will also know that payments require some amount of pushing (can't say what type), and that most retired folks turn to contracting and make money while quite a few qualified cos do not even attempt getting into the space due to such environmental constraints. I know two sad cases - private small entrepreuners, one of whom passed away and the baton has been handed over to his nephew who will probaby shut shop in a few years thanks to the lack of steady orders. The larger vendors are still capable of managing with exports for other products. This is the primary problem that needs to be solved. Given access to technology and firm orders, there are quite a few folks who would happily take up the high end of what we call hi-tech manufacturing. Applying learnings from software or electronics is quite muddled thinking.
PS: Sorry IR, saw your post as I was submitting mine.

You nailed it. The real bottleneck is sorry state of contracting procedures and lack of ordered. Some companies have even done projects on 'No Cost No Commitment' basis, only to have no orders at the end of the day, lost years of efforts, all the investments and most importantly the zeal to do anything in this field. I have worked for 1.5yrs in this arena, not in manufacturing though, which is far worse than RnD types start-ups. You need to keep what is called as "White Elephant" which is typically a rtd high ranking Officer from forces/DRDO or a Prof from IIT who knows which keys to press to get some orders. Just for that he would be paid big moneys. And even then its not so easy. But without that you are doomed.

If what KaranM had said somewhere is true, there seems to be a huge improvement on the clearing payments front. The contracting process seems to be getting better. That has to be made free of red-tapism. The L1 tendering process should be scrapped.

Next issue is of orders. We never give good amount of orders to Desi projects. We always wait for it to prove their worth fully in the field and then also only meagre orders follow. Whereas we are ready to wait for 20yrs for importing something and we spell out fixed orders upfront there.

HAL MD said that HAL can ramp up to 25/yr if they get enough suppliers to outsource all manufacturing. They got two Tier1 suppliers so far. We have about 5-6yrs until Mk1A starts coming out and 20 FOC MK1 to use as a set-up batch. But HAL *cannot* speed up the process of setting up facilities. GoI has to put its weight behind the pvt companies, first to assure orders in future so their investments are justified (who will invest for 5-6 yrs of production if there is no guarantee of anything after that? AMCA is to far out in future). Then give lands, clearances, infrastructures even soft loans, tax breaks at lightening speed. The same treatment that GOI is ready to give for those same suppliers who would work for F16 if it comes in. Unless this is done, no point blaming HAL for slow production rate. HAL itself is stuck in endless red-tapism, I have heard stories from ex-employees, how for small small things but essential things like instrumentation MoD seats on files for years while HAL takes the brunt for lethargy.

In fact I don't see the point in deriding HAL at all. Its not a fully autonomous company. They have done good job, or at least tried to do something out of the usual box on projects which come within their financial autonomy power (IJT, HTFE, HTT) by putting up money from own pocket. But when in comes to bigger projects like LCA they are totally dependant on MoD. Our RM invites Saffron to open MRO centre in GOA saying we need 5000-10000 engines in next few decades, most of which will be Safran engine. I am yet to hear such encouragement from GOI for HTFE/HTSE. I have already pointed out on BRF earlier that the tender that came for outsourcing of manufacturing of the same promised such low number that any sane business man will *not* invest in such venture, even When HAL is ready to fully transfer the tech and teach how to do the entire manufacturing of given modules.

[JayS]

Volvo Aero was sold to a UK based company.

I was referring to your comment about the conditions put on TML on the JLR acquisition - like neither production nor technology is to be transferred to India (rather out of UK). On the same vein, I am not sure whether volvo had any worthwhile technology that could be useful for geely.

With regards to Technology control after an acquisition:

In hindsight, JLR have developed new aluminium chassis and engines. I am sure (rather hopeful) quite a few indians, especially from TMETC would have been part of the process and they could be brought back to India for KT, etc. to qualitatively improve TML products.

But not sure how Geely benefitted by new R&D in volvo, especially their two newest vehicles s90 and xc90 have been considered good overall.

PS: Ignore if this discussion is OT.

Sorry not aware of Volvo Auto biz. If you ask something about Volvo Aero, I could tell you something.

[hanumadu]

When it comes to small components - whether single items like rings/pipes or whether they are assembled from multiple parts - the industrial ecosystem in Europe and USA typically will have a dozen or more companies who are capable of doing the work. If company X gets a big order from Airbus or Boeing, company Y and Z have lost out. These guys will always be ready to team up with an Indian businessman and supply stuff under his name to India provided he does the India groundwork. it is win win for both but it does not mean technology infusion into India unless the Indian entity goes one step further and starts making the stuff they are importing. Some companies do that. Some don't. I have done business with both types.

This is an insignificant issue to overcome. Firstly, its defence equipment with IP owned by DRDO. So, cant reveal blue prints to outsiders. Have it in the contract and it wont be hard to enforce either. The analogy with medical equipment may not hold as the medical end user is only interested in the product and may not have any IP nor is it a national security issue.

Your reasons for a foreign vendor have gone from India does not have the capability to we need foreign vendor to achieve the numbers quickly to inability of the govt to finance the component manufacturers to private component manufacturers subcontracting them to others. At least they are in decreasing order of their severity.

[symontk]

The government cannot fund the new private factories

Govt can and have done that already. If you look at the participation of pvt sector in space its from the facilities built from ISRO's money. The reason for funding is that its sparsely used. The condition is that those facilities are primarily used for ISRO's need. ISRO has invested similarly in Public sector too with same conditions. ISRO officers transfer the necessary documentation and training for the new employees and will provide the specifications. There is product quality monitoring facility too

Same thing can be done for LCA too. But I dont think ADA has figured out the production part of LCA. Once it is done it can be shared across several companies, Pvt and Public

[shiv]

The government cannot fund the new private factories

Govt can and have done that already. If you look at the participation of pvt sector in space its from the facilities built from ISRO's money.

No insult intended to ISROs achievements - but ISRO is a classic example of a company that gets land free and has to pay no taxes on the land and does not depend on profits to pay salaries. All that ISRO did was to become efficient - which our defence PSUs are not doing because of the left hand pays right hand nature of PSUs.

[kit]

Correct. Even if we manage to buy SAAB somehow, the technology will not come to India automatically. It will stay in Sweden. Only thing is we will have control over it to some degree (but not fully). We can guess the picture based on what happened in JLR acquisition by TATA, even though it was a mere auto company.

Question - did something similar happen with Volvo too? Or was it sold lock, stock and barrel to Chinese?

As with all things if you want to get the tech of the company that is acquired there is a work around !! .. India / Indians do not do this but China / Chinese do ! .. has to do with greed / incentive / bending over to please etc on part of the higher ups in the company .. google around ..numerous examples

[shiv]

This is an insignificant issue to overcome. Firstly, its defence equipment with IP owned by DRDO.

No I was referring to how private parties may jump in taking offsets clause to supply items for an imported jet being assembled in India

[JayS]

The government cannot fund the new private factories

Govt can and have done that already. If you look at the participation of pvt sector in space its from the facilities built from ISRO's money. The reason for funding is that its sparsely used. The condition is that those facilities are primarily used for ISRO's need. ISRO has invested similarly in Public sector too with same conditions. ISRO officers transfer the necessary documentation and training for the new employees and will provide the specifications. There is product quality monitoring facility too

Same thing can be done for LCA too. But I dont think ADA has figured out the production part of LCA. Once it is done it can be shared across several companies, Pvt and Public

Govt can always fund if they want to. There are ways, easiest being giving soft-loans for 100% investment with a clause that the pvt company has to buy equity (apart from returning the loan amount) in given amount of years from the profits.

But the biggest problem is govt has to assure order, for if there is no business case, no one will come to waste their time in such ventures, let alone money. But if there are assured future orders, the pvt companies can put up own money or get loans from banks in regular manner since the banks will be willing to fund the biz if they are convinced of viability. In addition govt can ensure all the offsets would go to those companies which participate in LCA manufacturing. That would give them additional breather. So if Chhota bhai wants 22000Cr worth projects he has to invest 500-1000Cr in one tier1 level facility for LCA. Something on that line. So not only LCA but other programs such as LCH, LUH, HTSE, Kaveri could be roped in to make sure enough orders are on the plate. But bottom-line is govt has to *commit*, just like other govts world over do for their domestic MIC. In Project 75I also, I read, Ministry has issues with committing future orders for the strategic partner they would choose to build some of those subs in India. They simply don't want it.

Otherwise, forget about any sort of angel funding in such ventures. Getting even 1Cr for such venture is near impossible.

[JayS]

Question - did something similar happen with Volvo too? Or was it sold lock, stock and barrel to Chinese?

As with all things if you want to get the tech of the company that is acquired there is a work around !! .. India / Indians do not do this but China / Chinese do ! .. has to do with greed / incentive / bending over to please etc on part of the higher ups in the company .. google around ..numerous examples

And that's one of the reasons why no one likes it when Chinese take over their company. Local Swedes were not happy when Chinese company took over SAAB. They were much more favourable for Indian company, M&M. For reasons, I do not know, M&M couldn't buy SAAB auto biz and the Singapore based Chinese co won.

I mean look at the JLR situation, China is selling clones of JLR cars and despite owning it, TATA not manufacturing it in India. TML trying to absorb the tech in much more slow but organic way which is more amicable to all. 15yrs down the line we will see definite improvement in TML line-up. But we cannot use this model in defense, for one no one will sell us those companies, and second the technology has much more stringent control by the govts.

We have one RnD facility in US which is 50% funded by USGov. None from our company employees from other offices can go there, call by phone or even send a post. Not even CEO. The tech developed their will be closely guarded for long time and will not got outside USA. So if we want some component made for some project in India, well we might be able to get it built by same tech (if ITAR allows it that is) and import, but we may never be able to build the component outside US anytime soon, even if we own it.

[kit]

So why is China tolerated despite balatantly stealing from western countires ??? Too many politicians Western and business people are invested in their prosperity .. they get rich when china gets rich ..simple

India wants to be top tier economy .. get foreign companies ( not countries) invest in you .. the more they sell ( not inside the country) the more they makes.. This kind of protectionism makes china the economy it is today. No regard for IPR whatsoever. They do profess it is another matter.. clone or duplicate whatever is made in the world is their motto. Not a bad one . Japan started on it !

[JayS]

*OT Alert*

^^They tolerate China because they are joined by hips with them now. And of coarse what you said counts big time. Who would not like double digit returns when in own country IR were negative??

And not only they get rich, the rich Chinese are bringing back the money to West. Already a lot of them are buying western passports. The moment sign of collapse appears they will all fly westwards taking significant wealth with them. One hell of a master plan by US.

However I am not in favour of repeating China's export-led model in India. We already have a ever increasing domestic consumption and a healthy service sector. We need to learn from the experiences of China and Germany.

Japan/SK went from Imitation to innovation, but they always kept a decent quality. China has gone nuts with all the obsession with quantity.

[kit]

*OT Alert*

^^They tolerate China because they are joined by hips with them now. And of coarse what you said counts big time. Who would not like double digit returns when in own country IR were negative??

And not only they get rich, the rich Chinese are bringing back the money to West. Already a lot of them are buying western passports. The moment sign of collapse appears they will all fly westwards taking significant wealth with them. One hell of a master plan by US.

However I am not in favour of repeating China's export-led model in India. We already have a ever increasing domestic consumption and a healthy service sector. We need to learn from the experiences of China and Germany.

Japan/SK went from Imitation to innovation, but they always kept a decent quality. China has gone nuts with all the obsession with quantity.

OT .. but true .. That India has yet to develop fully ..Aerospace manufacturing especially is a definite plus .. things will get better with right policies and the right government ..the GOI is fully invested in the LCA manufacture and the AMCA .. the tech will mature

[shiv]

Question: Let us assume that a fighter plane "X" is really downselected for "make in India" and to ramp up IAF numbers. How soon will that fighter have to appear and in what numbers.

Now the IAF strength is going to go down by a dozen squadrons by 2020-22, but we will only get about 4 squadrons of Rafala and Tejas by then. So we will need at least 4 of "fighter X" squadrons by 2022. Unless the fighter is selected and agreement reached by 2018 - I cannot see how any fighter can be "made/assembled in India" that soon.

So here's the question. What is plan B? What if none of these plans fructify?

Are we simply going to do an emergency import of foreign manufactured aircraft?

[ShauryaT]

I find this logic strange. The GoI pays for the acquired products. GoI has the power to create incentives and tax structures to attract capital to wherever they desire. It will be right to say GoI does not have the funds to sustain a decrepit DPSU infrastructure AND incubate a private MIC and keep both going at the same time. The right answer here is to disinvest and believe there is enough private capital to rise up to the effort IF GoI makes this intention clear and executes against the expected political opposition.

Shaurya what we need is expansion of capacity, not a lateral shift of ownership coupled with a long term contraction in government investment as pvt sector expands.

Shiv ji: My argument is we cannot do both and cannot wait for this smooth "eventual" death of DPSU's as we know them. As you have rightly noted, private industry has no experience being Tier 1 players and there is a lack of tier 2 and 3 suppliers, half of which is due to the fact that these tier 2/3 suppliers do not want to deal with the governmental system. It will take upwards of 10-15 years before any meaningful self designed products would be forthcoming from this private industry, more so for highly complex efforts like an aircraft. Many times there will be with some critical foreign technology in them. The Kalyani artillery systems is a case in point they started this journey in the 90's and they still are anxious of government acts which can lay all their investments to waste.

As you know, things do not stop evolving and the pace and scale at which we need to replace and arm is similar to only three other nations in the world. These three have their own indigenous eco-systems well developed to varying degrees. If we have any hope of being an independent power, we cannot afford to screw up on this journey, for its strategic costs will be heavy as it has been. We have lost precious decades and cannot loose more decades. It is time for radical surgery now.

ADA, NAL, HAL all have to keep on evolving their works, which is not done at a pace the nation needs. Look at the recent interview of the ADA folks, there was hardly any mention of LCA Mark 2. The entire focus seems to have shifted to AMCA. This lack of any idea on what and when mark 2 will arrive was more or less corroborated by the HAL chiefs, who were again silent on that score. There are so many programs here, that some type of disinvestment to kick start private industry from day 1 as the tier 1 player is the need of the day. The Kaveri saga is another case in point. I would bet that private industry would have figured a solution by now and a use for some version of the engine on trainers, strike aircraft, UAV, something and with some luck or tie ups made investments to evolve. The DPSU's/labs can retain some long gestation and non-commercial projects. But anything to do with revenue making opportunities, export opportunities and mass orders needs to go to private industry. Frankly the DPSU's have no business being in the business of commercial weapon systems.

You are right to point out the political limitations, but this is where one expects leadership. Where is it? MoD is all powerful not because it has control of the forces but because it controls a large purse along with DPSU's and OFB's. The babucracy knows that this is the creamy layer, where corrupt practices rule the roost. We have used the analogy cleaning of the Aegean stables before. Where is my Hercules?

[ShauryaT]

Question: Let us assume that a fighter plane "X" is really downselected for "make in India" and to ramp up IAF numbers. How soon will that fighter have to appear and in what numbers.

Now the IAF strength is going to go down by a dozen squadrons by 2020-22, but we will only get about 4 squadrons of Rafala and Tejas by then. So we will need at least 4 of "fighter X" squadrons by 2022. Unless the fighter is selected and agreement reached by 2018 - I cannot see how any fighter can be "made/assembled in India" that soon.

So here's the question. What is plan B? What if none of these plans fructify?

Are we simply going to do an emergency import of foreign manufactured aircraft?

My answer is go with the Mig 29K. Has a long future with IN already. Not single engined, hence higher operational cost but will arrest the numbers with significant capability. Focus exclusively on the Tejas as the single engined fighter and evolve it RAPIDLY.

[sudeepj]

JayS bhai, lets agree to disagree. My own background is in electronics, not aerospace, I know at least a little bit about manufacturing. To me, it doesnt appear that making 240 Ambassadors instead of 120 will magically transform your product into a honda. Instead of berating me, do write to the GoI and explain you reasoning. May be they will listen, unlike me.

its the innovation curve where we will gain the most. New materials, new processes, scaling, automated tools, 3d printing, continuous enhancements to software/hardware, new weapon types, new tools for support, 3d visual crack inspections. If we make a lot of finished goods at home, we will also learn how to ensure they live upto the specs, figure out why if they don't and in next revision make enhancements. This whole cycle is lost when you import the toolings and drawings. And yes adding an extra 120 makes a huge difference to this innovation curve. When you import you only get the learning curve ( cost improvement ) not the innovation curve with it. If we are to make a dent in that, we need both.

1. That you will gain these when you manufacture 240 instead of 120 is simply a fond hope. Reality is, that out of the key technologies needed for a fighter jet - engine, radar, missiles, structures, control law, aero design expertise - we are missing at least three. Even in structures, we do not know how good the LCA Structure is. There are frequent complaints about it being 'overdesigned' to compensate for design expertise. [A good aero structure being defined as, just as strong as it needs to be and no more]

2. I am yet to see a single poster show, why 240 and 32/year will be better than 120 and 16/year. Who will supply the tooling for the second line? I have visited the boeing factory, they have a huge robot to do the riveting. The clatter is constant. The same thing is being done on the LCA using a riveting hand tool. Do you think, that if we have a second line, we will automatically get the riveting robot? If we get the second line from LM, dont you think we will get a better production line? Wont the second LCA line be a clone of the first one at HAL?

3. Detractors whine about how bad the Indian industry is, with no track record and nothing to show for, even in autos where we are a world player. Yet, expect that this industry when given an order for 120 planes will automagically start doing 3D printing of composites. Carbon fiber bicycle banayi hai inhone?

4. Detractors are yet to show, that the LCA MK1A is a good enough fighter to induct into the IAF in a number as large as 240. Its going to be extremely good over own skies and say, 2-300 kms into enemy skies. But even with the AESA and in flight refueling, does it have the legs to take the fight to the enemy? Especially when compared to the J10 and the J16?

5. Lastly, can India have a completely local aero-space setup when we buy about 1 or 2 squadrons of planes per year? (35 squadrons of planes, 30 year life span of a plane).

6. If India is threatened by China, can an airforce centered around the LCA surge its capability in short order? For instance, can it induct cutting edge weapons within a few months? Can it get its hands on say, 5 more squadrons within six months? This is possible with the American platform by way of direct transfer from the US and its allies. Can the LCA fight integrated into an allied system? [Recall that the Euros ran out of A2G weapons when bombing Libya and had to run to the great Khan].

Bottomline is, its a much more complicated decision than the open and shut case detractors portray it to be. They do themselves and the GoI a huge disservice.

[ShauryaT]

2. I am yet to see a single poster show, why 240 and 32/year will be better than 120 and 16/year. Who will supply the tooling for the second line? I have visited the boeing factory, they have a huge robot to do the riveting. The clatter is constant. The same thing is being done on the LCA using a riveting hand tool. Do you think, that if we have a second line, we will automatically get the riveting robot? If we get the second line from LM, dont you think we will get a better production line? Wont the second LCA line be a clone of the first one at HAL?

Automation is not the only way to scale. It maybe an efficient method to scale but not the only way. Trying to jump two generations ahead in the efficiency game is a nice to have and not a need to have. Focus on what is needed here and not what is a nice to have. The need is build a private aero-space industry - may not be the most efficient one today and by definition may not compete with the most efficient one's on the market. We may not export our products to EU or US for three decades and that is an acceptable outcome.

4. Detractors are yet to show, that the LCA MK1A is a good enough fighter to induct into the IAF in a number as large as 240. Its going to be extremely good over own skies and say, 2-300 kms into enemy skies. But even with the AESA and in flight refueling, does it have the legs to take the fight to the enemy? Especially when compared to the J10 and the J16?

Does the J10 have what it takes to take the fight to Indian skies, taking off @ 15.000 ft. Why bring in the J16 into the debate? Apples and Oranges, is it not? At least those buggers stuck with their iterations of the J10 and are now flying with the own engines!!

5. Lastly, can India have a completely local aero-space setup when we buy about 1 or 2 squadrons of planes per year? (35 squadrons of planes, 30 year life span of a plane).

If IAF had its way, the demand is for 50 squadrons and I see this going up in the coming decades, if we have to play our rightful role in the IOR. IOW, yes, we have enough of a demand to have a largely local aero-sapece setup and this is without the export potential in the IOR or latin America.

6. If India is threatened by China, can an airforce centered around the LCA surge its capability in short order? For instance, can it induct cutting edge weapons within a few months? Can it get its hands on say, 5 more squadrons within six months? This is possible with the American platform by way of direct transfer from the US and its allies. Can the LCA fight integrated into an allied system? [Recall that the Euros ran out of A2G weapons when bombing Libya and had to run to the great Khan].

No, but am not aware that we are looking to be "allied" with anyone?

Bottomline is, its a much more complicated decision than the open and shut case detractors portray it to be. They do themselves and the GoI a huge disservice.

[/quote] Long time observers are not pointing these issues out for the first time. It does take dogged determination to stick with what you have and make your own eco-systems work. Sometimes I wish, we do some nuclear tests, sanctions will be put on our defense industry and then we will learn that necessity is the mother of all inventions. Invite another single engined fighter and good chance that Tejas goes the way of Marut with ADA on to the next shiny thing by way of AMCA!! Thankful to Parikkar to get all parties together to get the Tejas production going. He needs do take some bigger steps now.

[shiv]

What does ISRO do when it needs to launch a satellite that GSLV/PSLV cannot lift? It goes to Ariane.

But let me apply the logic that has been used on this thread. If ISRO must go to Arilane to do things that it is already doing, then someone is trying to kill ISRO.

This is obviously bullshit. ISRO goes on doing what it does and the help of an external agency is taken for things ISRO cannot do. But That does not shut ISRO down

Why would the situation for Tejas be different? The Tejas lline will go on and later AMCA. But when numbers cannot be met, we take the help of an external agency.

[ShauryaT]

What does ISRO do when it needs to launch a satellite that GSLV/PSLV cannot lift? It goes to Ariane.

But let me apply the logic that has been used on this thread. If ISRO must go to Arilane to do things that it is already doing, then someone is trying to kill ISRO.

This is obviously bullshit. ISRO goes on doing what it does and the help of an external agency is taken for things ISRO cannot do. But That does not shut ISRO down

Why would the situation for Tejas be different? The Tejas lline will go on and later AMCA. But when numbers cannot be met, we take the help of an external agency.

Invite Ariane to come and setup shop in India and then see what happens to ISRO.

[sudeepj]

2. I am yet to see a single poster show, why 240 and 32/year will be better than 120 and 16/year. Who will supply the tooling for the second line? I have visited the boeing factory, they have a huge robot to do the riveting. The clatter is constant. The same thing is being done on the LCA using a riveting hand tool. Do you think, that if we have a second line, we will automatically get the riveting robot? If we get the second line from LM, dont you think we will get a better production line? Wont the second LCA line be a clone of the first one at HAL?

Automation is not the only way to scale. It maybe an efficient method to scale but not the only way. Trying to jump two generations ahead in the efficiency game is a nice to have and not a need to have. Focus on what is needed here and not what is a nice to have. The need is build a private aero-space industry - may not be the most efficient one today and by definition may not compete with the most efficient one's on the market. We may not export our products to EU or US for three decades and that is an acceptable outcome.

Agreed, I am simply making the point that a second LCA line will simply be a clone of the first LCA line, which is at HAL. Because its the same cussed lalajis who are going to set it up, with help from the same cussed DPSUs. What do we gain in production technologies etc.?

4. Detractors are yet to show, that the LCA MK1A is a good enough fighter to induct into the IAF in a number as large as 240. Its going to be extremely good over own skies and say, 2-300 kms into enemy skies. But even with the AESA and in flight refueling, does it have the legs to take the fight to the enemy? Especially when compared to the J10 and the J16?

Does the J10 have what it takes to take the fight to Indian skies, taking off @ 15.000 ft. Why bring in the J16 into the debate? Apples and Oranges, is it not? At least those buggers stuck with their iterations of the J10 and are now flying with the own engines!!

Only for want of choice! They are sanctioned, remember? Further, its one thing to continue R&D and LSP, another to saddle your entire force with Kunluns. Thirdly, they have a source of technology now, with Russians involved in a war on their western front. The happy time for us, when the Russians would not sell them stuff because they were scared and the west didnt sell them stuff because of sanctions, is over!

We need to realistically look at the situation.. the Chinese are where they are today and we are where we are. They have multiple nobel laureates working for them in hard science areas. We have none. They have multiple high tech companies, and they have insulated their populace from the western viewpoint (Twitter/fb/uber/amazon clones). Compared to the west, they are still trailing, but they are working on competing with the big daddies, not with us. If we attempt to take the path that they took, there will be a window of time, several decades long, when we will be in a position where they can thrash us up. In short, the time to emulate China was in the 80s and 90s.. That time is now past us and there is a new reality we are faced with.

5. Lastly, can India have a completely local aero-space setup when we buy about 1 or 2 squadrons of planes per year? (35 squadrons of planes, 30 year life span of a plane).

If IAF had its way, the demand is for 50 squadrons and I see this going up in the coming decades, if we have to play our rightful role in the IOR. IOW, yes, we have enough of a demand to have a largely local aero-sapece setup and this is without the export potential in the IOR or latin America.

I am sorry Shaurya T ji.. what is this damn rightful role in IOR? 100,000 of our Civilians have been killed by a neighbor most of whose population is within 100kms of our border, seriously challenging our internal cohesion and national wellbeing and you are talking about rightful role in IOR? IAF is far more likely to be a 30sq force, not a 40 sq force, and in defense of your argument, you think its possibly going to be a 50sq force. These are simply.. fantasies.

6. If India is threatened by China, can an airforce centered around the LCA surge its capability in short order? For instance, can it induct cutting edge weapons within a few months? Can it get its hands on say, 5 more squadrons within six months? This is possible with the American platform by way of direct transfer from the US and its allies. Can the LCA fight integrated into an allied system? [Recall that the Euros ran out of A2G weapons when bombing Libya and had to run to the great Khan].

No, but am not aware that we are looking to be "allied" with anyone?

There was no 'alliance' or treaty between the French and the British before 1907, I feel that is the time period our current situation corresponds to. If Xi continues his bellicose path while maintaining internal cohesion and stability, both the US and India will have no option but to come together. You may have noticed gauntlets being thrown in Tawang, Phillipines etc. recently.

Bottomline is, its a much more complicated decision than the open and shut case detractors portray it to be. They do themselves and the GoI a huge disservice.

Long time observers are not pointing these issues out for the first time. It does take dogged determination to stick with what you have and make your own eco-systems work. Sometimes I wish, we do some nuclear tests, sanctions will be put on our defense industry and then we will learn that necessity is the mother of all inventions. Invite another single engined fighter and good chance that Tejas goes the way of Marut with ADA on to the next shiny thing by way of AMCA!! Thankful to Parikkar to get all parties together to get the Tejas production going. He needs do take some bigger steps now.

Ill happily agree that we do need to stick to our own. But sticking to our own in a way that *promotes* Rapid catching up with the best and also maintaining offensive-defense capabilities, AND not turning into some kind of technology island like the North Korean regime. Question is what is the best compromise that allows us to do so. I feel, 120-Mk1A, while we also produce another fighter in parallel is the way forward. Once the LCA production has stabilized, we can reexamine the issue and order a few more squadrons worth. OR if the LCA is not good enough at that time, we can move forwards with the AMCA.

[symontk]

The question is not on ISRO's heavy lift capability but if Pvt and Public companies can create manufacture with out major orders. Basically a production eco system and culture needs to be created then only these things can be achieved. Govt has to take the first step as none of the Pvt compaines will step with their money

Regarding ISRO's capabilty, once they prove GSLVMk3, theoretically we have the capability of making 737 sized aircrafts. But do we have an ecosystem to develop on what ISRO did and develop the same. That is the part Govt should step in

[shiv]

Invite Ariane to come and setup shop in India and then see what happens to ISRO.

That is a fair comment. In fact something positive may come out of it - so we don't know. Any deal that is struck must be weighted to get something positive for India.

[ShauryaT]

I am sorry Shaurya T ji.. what is this damn rightful role in IOR? 100,000 of our Civilians have been killed by a neighbor most of whose population is within 100kms of our border and you are talking about rightful role in IAR? IAF is far more likely to be a 30sq force, not a 40 sq force, and in defense of your argument, you think its possibly going to be a 50sq force. These are simply.. fantasies.

I am not the only one with these "fantasies". The IAF too has articulated such a desire of 50 squadrons. Our rightful role is akin to the role the British Raj played with Indian men and materials in WWII, of course the republic will serve Indian interests. In military terms, it means some restoration of the erstwhile middle eastern/west asia command along with a far east command and domination of littoral IOR states. Call me a dreamer, it is fine. Sustained investment of 3% of GDP into defense will do the trick.

Ill happily agree that we do need to stick to our own. But sticking to our own in a way that *promotes* Rapid catching up with the best and also maintaining offensive-defense capabilities, AND not turning into some kind of technology island like the North Korean regime. Question is what is the best compromise that allows us to do so. I feel, 120-Mk1A, while we also produce another fighter in parallel is the way forward. Once the LCA production has stabilized, we can reexamine the issue and order a few more squadrons worth. OR if the LCA is not good enough at that time, we can move forwards with the AMCA.

I think we can disagree, do not think we have the capacity to sustain two separate eco-systems for a single engined fighter.

[shiv]

Can the US be bought?

I say yes the US can be bought. The Chinese bought the US in low tech manufacture. Let us buy the US by involving them in so much that they are caught. I am saying this as a person who has written thousands of words cursing the US for its perfidy. But I see US power on the decline and it will seek helping hands. The signs of a decline in US influence are everywhere. Rapprochement with Iran. Philippines mocking the US and Pakistan not bending to anything the US did, and the US gradually accepting what China is catching up even as the US struggles with Russia

[Cosmo_R]

^^^"Why can't the govt fund the private defence factories, especially given the urgent and strategic need for them? Some body already said on this thread that the upfront cost can be recovered from the profits made. Some things cannot be measured in terms of profit or loss. How much investment is needed? We are no longer that hard put up for money. Look at the money the govt is spending on infrastructure when private investors are reeling under debt and unwilling to commit more money. "

1. Where does the government get the money—from increased taxes, borrowing or printing money? Here's a link to taxes as source

http://www.investologic.in/income-tax-payers-in-india/

2. All things must be measured in terms of profit or loss. You're not going to work for less to subsidize your neighbor, why should any investment funds be directed into a drain? For example, would you put money into providing a drug to the poor if doesn't work? Why did they close down PSUs that were not making it like HMT watches? After all, it was providing employment.

Socialism is about spending until you run out of other people's money. It does not work. China has a budget surplus and it can spend on national projects. The provinces and banks however, are so loaded with debt of private and public debt of zombie companies that without the opacity that PRC cloaks its finances with, there would be more panic.

[Indranil]

1. That you will gain these when you manufacture 240 instead of 120 is simply a fond hope. Reality is, that out of the key technologies needed for a fighter jet - engine, radar, missiles, structures, control law, aero design expertise - we are missing at least three. Even in structures, we do not know how good the LCA Structure is. There are frequent complaints about it being 'overdesigned' to compensate for design expertise. [A good aero structure being defined as, just as strong as it needs to be and no more]

2. I am yet to see a single poster show, why 240 and 32/year will be better than 120 and 16/year. Who will supply the tooling for the second line? I have visited the boeing factory, they have a huge robot to do the riveting. The clatter is constant. The same thing is being done on the LCA using a riveting hand tool. Do you think, that if we have a second line, we will automatically get the riveting robot? If we get the second line from LM, dont you think we will get a better production line? Wont the second LCA line be a clone of the first one at HAL?

3. Detractors whine about how bad the Indian industry is, with no track record and nothing to show for, even in autos where we are a world player. Yet, expect that this industry when given an order for 120 planes will automagically start doing 3D printing of composites. Carbon fiber bicycle banayi hai inhone?

4. Detractors are yet to show, that the LCA MK1A is a good enough fighter to induct into the IAF in a number as large as 240. Its going to be extremely good over own skies and say, 2-300 kms into enemy skies. But even with the AESA and in flight refueling, does it have the legs to take the fight to the enemy? Especially when compared to the J10 and the J16?

5. Lastly, can India have a completely local aero-space setup when we buy about 1 or 2 squadrons of planes per year? (35 squadrons of planes, 30 year life span of a plane).

6. If India is threatened by China, can an airforce centered around the LCA surge its capability in short order? For instance, can it induct cutting edge weapons within a few months? Can it get its hands on say, 5 more squadrons within six months? This is possible with the American platform by way of direct transfer from the US and its allies. Can the LCA fight integrated into an allied system? [Recall that the Euros ran out of A2G weapons when bombing Libya and had to run to the great Khan].

Bottomline is, its a much more complicated decision than the open and shut case detractors portray it to be. They do themselves and the GoI a huge disservice.

1. Please educate me on which of the following will we become an expert in by virtue of another fighter line building say 200 fighters: engine, radar, missiles, structures, control law, aero design expertise

2. Please ask your friends in Boeing if they would invest in the same automation robots if they had to make 1 airplane per month.

3. You are asking the same industry to automagically manufacture a foreign fighter, aren't you?

4. I would like you to show me how a Gripen with same payload and fuel fraction will be able to have longer legs than the Mk1A. The difference in range under the same laws of physics will by in +-5%. What India needs to invest in is refuelers. If we are going to have 800 aircrafts with in flight refueling capability, we should have at least 30-40 refuelers. Unfortunately, we go for the glamour of fighters.

5. Did not understand your question.

6. You do realize that you are saying that while our Su-30s, Mig-29s, LCAs, Mirages, Mig-27s all share the same armaments. So, if we want to be really prepared, we should get planes which share these same armaments, and then stock up on those armaments. Going for 120 airplanes which require specialized armaments and then beg or borrow their armaments in times of distress is not my definition of preparedness.