Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSharma » 28 Oct 2016 18:59

just the fact that they are squealing means we are pushing the right buttons.

i know of some other companies, who are not into consumer electronics
they too import chinese products, do their own packaging and pass it off as indian.

slowly as people realise whats going on, their sales will go down as well

right now its not possible to replace chinese phones/tvs in the cheap segment but we can replace plastic products/toys etc easily

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Oct 2016 20:50

India, China NSAs to meet next week to discuss bilateral ties - PTI
National Security Advisers of India and China will meet next week to discuss measures to improve bilateral ties which are strained by differences over a host of issues including India's admission into NSG+ and Beijing's attempts to block UN ban on JeM Chief Masood Azhar+ .

National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi will meet in Hyderabad in November first week for informal dialogue on the state of bilateral relations, specially the irritants bedevilling the development of ties, officials said.

Besides blocking India's admission into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), China had put a second technical hold on India's move+ to bring about a UN ban on Azhar. Also India has been protesting over the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which is being laid through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).

While India is concerned over the Pakistan factor creeping into India-China relations making the bilateral ties more complex, China too is airing its apprehensions over the movement to boycott Chinese goods in India+ as well the visit of US Ambassador to New Delhi, Richard Verma, to Arunachal Pradesh+ , which it considers as Southern Tibet and India's permission to allow the Dalai Lama to visit the area.

Chinese officials say Beijing is apprehensive about India moving closer to US and Japan broadening its strategic and defence ties with both the countries.

Doval and Yang who are the designated Special Representatives of the India-China boundary talks, also periodically meet to discuss the whole gamut of the China-Indian relations.

Yang was the former foreign minister of China before he was elevated to the rank of State Councillor of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) after President Xi Jinping took over power in 2013.

In Chinese power structure, State Councillor is more powerful than the Foreign Minister on foreign policy issues.

Both Doval and Yang have been meeting regularly to discuss the problems affecting the bilateral relations.

Officials say that the Hyderabad meeting is not Special Representatives dialogue on border but an informal consultations in which all issues including those relating to the borders may figure.

Their meeting is set to take place in the backdrop of the just concluded plenary meeting of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) which conferred the status of "core leader" on Xi, broadening his power base both in the party and military.

On India's admission into the NSG, both sides held in-depth talks over the issue. India has been pressing China to relent on its opposition saying that vast majority of the 48 member group back New Delhi's case.

China, which is opposing India's membership on the ground that India is not a signatory to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), says the group need to work out a proposal on the accession on all the non-NPT countries meaning Pakistan's admission too.

After talks with India, Chinese officials also held talks with Pakistan on the same issue.

On the issue of ban on Azhar, China has not reacted to Pakistan's reported move to freeze his bank accounts and keeping him under house arrest. Beijing's technical hold in the UN on Azhar's ban issue is due to expire in December.

Doval and Yang were expected to touch on these issues as well as India's concerns over the ballooning trade deficit which according to Chinese officials touched over $51 billion last year in little over $70 billion trade between the two countries.

China has been promising to step up investments in India besides opening up markets for Indian IT and Pharmaceuticals. {AFAIK, that promise to open up Chinese markets for Indian goods & services is a decade old with absolutely not an inch of movement. This is repeated before & after every meeting of the SRs of the two countries.}

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby darshan » 29 Oct 2016 22:41

While working under Sales VP for my former employer, on three different occasions, we decided to take a return flight out of china as soon as possible. All three times with various big chinese companies, the process was the same.
1) The chinese team will refuse to talk in English at the critical moments and you are relying on your chinese speaking team members. The standard tactic to distract you at critical times.
2) They will attack the cost structure and keep harping on how they are being taken for a ride while things can be done lot cheaper within china. (And, we would be like, if that is the case then you would not be entertaining us.)
3) And end the meetings while presenting ideas like give us your IP, blue prints, etc. and we can do it for cheaper and will pay you token license fees.

Our teams immediately walked away all three times as it was clear that they were more interested in stealing whatever they can rather than do actual business as equals. While we did walk away due to the company's CEO being founder and having clear guidelines on not selling out for quick profit, but I am sure that there are many who would not have due to quick near term profits.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 29 Oct 2016 23:04

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 102373.cms

India plans to block entry of cheap Chinese goods
N
EW DELHI: India is expected to push for a new approach to tariff cuts at the 16-country trade bloc to prevent China from flooding its market with cheap goods. The commerce department is working on ways to give minimum tariff concessions to Chinese goods and delay the concessions by a long number of years even as it allows imports from other member countries at lower duties. As part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade negotiations, India is looking to tre .. to treat Chinese products differently due to the burgeoning trade deficit it has with Beijing. In 2015-16, India's exports to China were $9 billion while the imports were a staggering $61.7 billion leaving a trade deficit of $52.7 billion.
India hopes this longer phasing out of tariff concessions and differential treatment, called “deviations”, will become the basis for RCEP negotiations. The new approach comes ahead of the next ministerial meeting on November 3-4 in the Philippines .Moreover, since India had to do away with a three-tier structure of differential duty cuts as part of the negotiations, deviations are the last ray of hope to contain the trade deficit with China under a formal trade agreement. In the earlier tiered structure, India had proposed to remove duties on 42.5% of the items traded with China, something that Beijing had termed as low. “We hope the tiers come back from the backdoor through deviations,” said a commerce department official, ad .. We can look at longer staging periods for China by delaying the concessions by some years or not offer key products for tariff cuts to them at all,” the official said. Despite agreeing to a common concession, India is insisting on a single undertaking for the RCEP which means nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. “With single undertaking, we can be sure other members will not lose interest in India’s demands once we accept their demands for tariff concessions on goods,” the official said .

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 29 Oct 2016 23:06

Trade with India may be only 2 % of PRC but its does constitutes of 11-12 % of China's trade surplus. Let them not trade with India (Bread) and Enjoy (Cake) Pakistan.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kit » 30 Oct 2016 00:20

Prem wrote:Trade with India may be only 2 % of PRC but its does constitutes of 11-12 % of China's trade surplus.


could you please elaborate ?? ..this is news to me !

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 07:00

kit, the total trade surplus for China last fiscal was around 600B USD while with India alone it was 53 B USD. It works out to ~ 9%

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 12:12

BRadmins... have been reading this book and if u allow i am plissed to post some exceprts (time permitting possibly summary of each chapter) of this book.. True to the adage "Know ur friends better but know your enemies the bestest" have begun to read about Cheen.. and lucky enough got my hands on this nearly 1000 pg book
https://www.google.co.in/imgres?imgurl= ... cQ_B0IeDAK

Have read thru half the book but could not write summary.. so will post summary as and when I have time to type (as I am reading)..

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 12:13

Chapter 34: Why Mao and Stalin started the Korean War
Chapter 35: Mao milks the Korean War (1950-53)

US reveres the policy of non-intervention towards Taiwan when North Korea invaded South korea in June 1950—main reason why PRC never was able to take back Taiwan. China deployed 3 m and USA 1 m. Moa used this war to get Stalin to commit to help China build a modern defense force with arms industry. Mao hijacked Kim, the Korean dictator’s war. Chinese forces outnumber >6-1 the Korean forces. Moa would not stop even though Kim wanted a stop to the war.

In 1951 July, Moa, on advice from Staling sued for cease fire. The talks that followed did were not successful as Moa insisted that all Chinese POW must be returned. Majority of the Chinese forces hat wet to fight in Korea were former ex-Nationalists.. Mao, perhaps planned to kill them (as did Stalin in WW-2). Majority Of these ex-Nationalists who were POW did not want to go back to CCP. This was a good excuse for Moa who anyway not keen on stopping the war. He wanted to fight and he had a good alibi. The ultimate goal for Mao was to get weapons and the technology from Russia. When things did not improve Eisenhower said that he was ready to use the nuclear bomb on China if needed. This was music to Mao as he could not ask Stalin to give him nuclear weapons. Stalin, who was not even wiling to set up conventional defense manufacturing in China was nowhere near to agreeing to this request. This perhaps motivated him to call truce and agree to a cease fire in this war but still did not order to so. Stalin died in 1953 and the new team that took power were keen to stop war.
They even agree to his defense equipment request but Moa wanted nuclear weapons and would not agree stop the war. Kremlin then came up with psyops (and back tracked on its earlier statement) that Mao had fabricated the news that USA had biological weapons in Korean war. This was the only reason they were supporting China in Korean war.. Now that this is proven false they want truce with USA. Mao was cornered and had to agree to stop fighting. He did not get Nuclear weapons but got other military hardware. Mao agreed to voluntary repatriation of POWs now. 2/3 of CCP POW opted go to Taiwan. The rest that went to China were denounced as traitors. 21 Americans and one Scot fighting for the ccp went back to China and they later became disillusioned with CCP.

Official figures state that 4 lacs Chinese soldiers died but the truth could be that it was more close to a million.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 12:29

manju wrote:BRadmins... have been reading this book and if u allow i am plissed to post some exceprts (time permitting possibly summary of each chapter) of this book.. Have read thru half the book but could not write summary.. so will post summary as and when I have time to type (as I am reading)..

manju, welcome. Please post here. You may also post an overall review in the 'Book Review' thread.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kit » 30 Oct 2016 12:49

SSridhar wrote:kit, the total trade surplus for China last fiscal was around 600B USD while with India alone it was 53 B USD. It works out to ~ 9%



Thank you Sridhar !! .. all the more reason for a billion people for buy Indian 8)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 13:23

S Sridhar will post the summary and hopefully book review later.. I started typing my thoughts and summary only after I returned home.. Read the first half in the plan (could not type).. for now will post as I read the chapter..

37. War on Peasants (1953-56)
In 1955 Mao initiated “collective farming”, six years after he came to power in 1949. It was much easier to keep an eye on the produce and as usual Moa used one another to spy and report anyone who tried to hide the farm produce. As with many of his initiatives he used terror to conduct surveillance for “collective farming.” Each government body was given quotas (x number of farmers) to be arrested in each county. However, he was lenient towards business people in cities and that only because it suite his purpose. So much for Mao’s talk about working for the poor farmers. It was all talk when it came to “farmer’s welfare.”

Mao, was an absolute schemer. He would play one against another.. Ensuring that no one trusted anyone else-this applied to both the part members and the general public as well. Innumerable examples… He always stayed in a villas that had bunkers (nuclear weapon proof. As with any new initiative terror was the main tool. For example when he wanted to cut down corruption government he would give quotas to the supervisors and say for example 5% of the staff are corrupt. So the supervisors had to make at least 5% target and subject them into “confessions and informing”… this would be followed by frequent public denunciation meetings and physical abuse. If an initiative involved threat to his power the victims would be physically tortured and execute in public and the people (in lacs) were forced to witness these executions. The purpose was to instil fear.

Moa never gave up the idea of acquiring nuclear weapons. In 1954 China attack a few offshore islands of Taiwan (with no provocation) and when things did stop Eisenhower said he would not hesitate to use the nuclear bomb if China did not stop the attacks. USA had just signed a mutual defence treaty with Taiwan. This was music to Mao’s ears. He used this threat to ask Khrushchev (the new Kremlin boss) to ask for nuclear weapons. Kremlin did not want to intervene on China’s behalf should the US use nuclear weapons as it did not want to get into a direct confrontation with USA. At lost USSR agreed to provide and build nuclear reactors over twelve year’s period.

How would he pay for this? Squeeze the farmers more. But his No 2 and 3 men (including Choi-en-Lai) opposed this as they were more realistic and knew that it would destroy the country side and farmers. At this time Khrushchev had begun to denounce Stalin’s personality cult which Mao was imitating. The leaders below Mao were able to get away denouncing Mao’s plans to squeeze the farmers more (to tax more) by quoting Kremlin’s new outlook. Moa

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bart S » 30 Oct 2016 13:25

kit wrote:
SSridhar wrote:kit, the total trade surplus for China last fiscal was around 600B USD while with India alone it was 53 B USD. It works out to ~ 9%



Thank you Sridhar !! .. all the more reason for a billion people for buy Indian 8)


Plus India is a the takeoff stage to rapidly grow and become one of the largest markets in the world. What is 10% today could grow to seriously cost them in terms of competitiveness tomorrow. It will also send a signal to MNCs that they should invest in manufacturing for India in India instead of importing from China.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 13:27

Manju, Mao & Soviet Union had a frosty relationship to start with. USSR did not come to Mao's help against the Kuomintang. In 1949, Mao went to Moscow to meet Stalin but was made to cool off for two months in an icy dacha in the outskirts as Stalin refused to meet him. There are stories of Russian pathologists analyzing Mao's poop to see how many more years he would live.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 13:39

On the question of Chinese involvement in the Korean peninsula, there was strong opposition to it from top leaders of CPC. None other than the Marshal of the Chinese Armed Forces (later) seems to have said, "We have been fighting over several decades in the past. People now want peace. It is utterly against the people's will to angage in more fighting. Our nation has just been liberated, the economy is in a great mess, the Army's equipment needs to be updated. How can we afford more war? Besides, we could be pretty confident fighting the Kuomintang, yet to fight the modern American army equipped with atom bombs is quite another matter". [From: "China's Coming War With Asia" by Jonathan Holslag, an interesting book]

Now Gen. Lin Biao was no pushover even for Chairman Mao. He was the second in hierarchy after Mao. Somehow, Mao prevailed. The same Gen. Lin Biao opposed the rapprochement with the US in 1970. There was a a large number of pro-Moscow generals who gathered around Lin Biao and against Mao & Zhou's pro-US policies. It was not until Lin Biao could be purged through a plane crash in Mongolia in late September 1971 that Mao himself could take the next steps in normalizing relationships with the US. Mao himself came close to being ousted from power through a military coup. The top leadership's confidence in PLA hierarchy was shaken.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 14:03

Bart S wrote:Plus India is a the takeoff stage to rapidly grow and become one of the largest markets in the world. What is 10% today could grow to seriously cost them in terms of competitiveness tomorrow. It will also send a signal to MNCs that they should invest in manufacturing for India in India instead of importing from China.

Absolutely correct.

I would also like to highlight another point that comes up for discussion, the nuclear issue. We usually discuss India-Pakistan nuclear issues, deterrence, compellance etc, but largely ignore the India-China issues. China's trade policies with India are also linked up with the nuclear issue.

On the issue of nuclear doctrine and China’s perception of Indian nuclear-weapons and deterrence, the Chinese thoughts appear to be that India is not a major nuclear threat to it because of factors such as the size and capability of its nuclear warheads, delivery systems, its NFU policy, a usually defensive Indian diplomatic outlook, and non-aggressive nature. It also believes that it was India’s hunger for a Great power status coupled with domestic politics that led to the 1998 tests. In other words, China believes that both in capability and intention, India is not a threat. It also believes that the technological gap between the two countries in this field is too wide to be easily bridged by India. It drafted the p-5 statement condemning India after Clinton revealed to the Chinese leadership the letter wrtten by Vajpayee to him justifying India's quest for n-weapons. It took the lead in the UNSC also under instigation from the US.

However, 9/11 and Pres. Bush changed the scenario on its head. China objected strongly to the Indo-US Nuclear deal in c. 2008 because it felt strongly that such a deal was in the overall US scheme of ‘balancing China’. Though it also took a moral high ground that the US was relaxing and violating the international non-proliferation goals, China is the last country that can talk about proliferation anyway. However, in c. 2016, some Chinese voices are heard advocating a track-II talk on nuclear-related fields between China and India. China still believes that India’s nuclear-weapons programme can still be capped and eliminated and for this reason, it wants to keep equating India with Pakistan so that such a possibility could be achieved through a South Asian Nuclear Free Zone. It makes Pakistan constantly harp on this subject. Such a formulation helps twin objectives, that of eliminating Indian n-weapons and keeping India equated with Pakistan. That would, in their calculation, leave China the preeminent nuclear and political power in Asia. At the same time, it also believes that Indian distrust to its own n-weapons can be removed through better and bigger trade with India. China therefore opposes India in UNSC, NSG etc because it feels that its is not *YET* there because its n-power status is illegal as it has not signed NPT and is not considered as a n-weapons state. But, it believes that India can be disabused of the notion that Great Power status comes from possessing n-weapons by emphasizing that it comes from a great economy and China could be its partner to achieve that and once that is achieved, India can join the high table.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 30 Oct 2016 15:44

Wow SS ji. What crystal clear analysis. Just cuts to the crap peddled elsewhere. Hat tip to you saar.

In your judgment, has China considered the possibility of they themselves falling off their imaginary pedestal that have hoisted themselves on?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 30 Oct 2016 16:24

The US could not dissuade India from nuclear weapons when India was much poorer and went through decades of economic and political turmoil. They were willing to endure sanctions and take the fight to the American stooge Pakistan. Why would Chinese analysts find India remotely willing to abjure nukes when they are growing at 8% plus and Pakistan is in the septic tank? They would not have understood anything about India's civilisational world view.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 17:35

SSridhar wrote:Manju, Mao & Soviet Union had a frosty relationship to start with. USSR did not come to Mao's help against the Kuomintang. In 1949, Mao went to Moscow to meet Stalin but was made to cool off for two months in an icy dacha in the outskirts as Stalin refused to meet him. There are stories of Russian pathologists analyzing Mao's poop to see how many more years he would live.


lol... one thing.. these communists and tyrants are real psychos..!! I had some vague idea about Mao watching History Channel.. I am glad I got hold of this book so i have better/deepeL understanding of napakis taller than mountain friends..

I think Mao knew how to let the Ruskies part with technology for nuclear weapons and then later for mizziles.. attack taiwan and promptly usa would say "we will not hesitate to nuclear bomb China" This was music to Mao. He used this threat to tell ruskies.. Hey look "u either gives or arms or u will be dragged into a direct conflict with USA"

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 17:39

manju wrote:
SSridhar wrote:Manju, Mao & Soviet Union had a frosty relationship to start with. USSR did not come to Mao's help against the Kuomintang. In 1949, Mao went to Moscow to meet Stalin but was made to cool off for two months in an icy dacha in the outskirts as Stalin refused to meet him. There are stories of Russian pathologists analyzing Mao's poop to see how many more years he would live.


lol... one thing.. these communists and tyrants are real psychos..!! I had some vague idea about Mao watching History Channel.. I am glad I got hold of this book so i have better/deepeL understanding of napakis taller than mountain friends..

I think Mao knew how to let the Ruskies part with technology for nuclear weapons and then later for mizziles.. attack taiwan and promptly usa would say "we will not hesitate to nuclear bomb China" This was music to Mao. He used this threat to tell ruskies.. Hey look "u either gives or arms or u will be dragged into a direct conflict with USA"

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 17:47

panduranghari wrote:In your judgment, has China considered the possibility of they themselves falling off their imaginary pedestal that have hoisted themselves on?

Nobody would know the answer to your question except probably the gang of seven that comprises the Standing Committee of the Politburo that rules China or some of the members of the Politburo. China is very dismissive of India and it probably thinks that even if China slows down considerably, it would simply be far ahead of India and in no real danger from that direction.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Oct 2016 17:58

sanjaykumar wrote:The US could not dissuade India from nuclear weapons when India was much poorer and went through decades of economic and political turmoil. They were willing to endure sanctions and take the fight to the American stooge Pakistan. Why would Chinese analysts find India remotely willing to abjure nukes when they are growing at 8% plus and Pakistan is in the septic tank? They would not have understood anything about India's civilisational world view.

It is impossible to know why & how nations arrive at certain conclusions about others. Some of the reasons could be our emphasis on 'Vasudeiva Khutumbakam' which could be misinterpreted as weakness, or certain impressions that Zhou-en-Lai formed about Nehru and other Indian interlocutors, or the 1962 war, or the lack of resolve on India's part to swat a Pakistan almost one-seventh, or weaponizing only 34 years after China did and that too when the window of opportunity was about to close etc. Such miscalculations lead to great disasters.

IMHO, there are two problems in dealing with China: one, the lack of transparency in Chinese thinking and two, the lack of understanding of each other's civilizational values. There are no two countries as large and as old and yet not much understanding.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 18:00

Mao: The Unknown Story

Book by Jon Halliday and Jung Chang

Chapter 38. Undermining Khrushchev (1956-59)

Stalin died in 1953. Six year later in 1949 many communist countries like Poland and Hungary had protests against USSR overbearing influence on their domestic policies. Moa tried to fish in troubled waters and place himself on the pedestal on par with USSR’s leadership as the leader of the communist movement. Later, he offered help 2.5 lac volunteers (euphemism for soldiers) to fight for Egypt when the Suez Canal crisis erupted.

In 1957, old time Stalinists revolted against Khrushchev but they were beaten down. To reinforce his position as the top communist leader he wanted to get explicit support from foreign communist parties. All communist leader sent in their endorsement promptly but Mao used this opportunity to bargain for technology to build atom bombs and missiles as well as more advance fighter planes. USSR was also planning the communist world/s biggest ever summit in November 1957 and for this event to go smoothly they needed Mao on Board. Mao made sure that the agreement and the technology transfer of the atom bomb happened before he went to the summit in Moscow. And as usual China paid for this largely with agricultural produce. The farmers were taxed more- they had to part with more of their grains. Every time Moscow delayed on their promise Moa would shell Taiwan to keep pressure on Moscow. He used this tactic to get the technology for advanced ships and submarines. This continued until he died in 1979. The same year USA established diplomatic relations with China.

In November 1957 Mao went to Moscow for the summit and tried to project himself as the leader of the international communist movement. In one of his speeches he said “… People say that poverty is bad, but in fact poverty is good. The poorer people are, the more revolutionary they are. …..”

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 30 Oct 2016 19:52

Mao: The Unknown Story

Book by Jon Halliday and Jung Chang

Chapter 39. Killing the Hundred Flowers (1957-58; age 63-64 yrs)/

TERRORIZATION had always been Mao’s panacea whenever he wanted to achieve anything. When Khrushchev condemned Stalin/s use of terror, Mao had to lower the rate of arrests and killings. But when Khrushchev’s tanks rolled into Hungary later in 1956, Mao saw his change to revive persecution. His colleagues were still saying that troubles in Eastern Europe were the result of over concentration he heavy industry and neglecting living standards. Mao’s view of the lessons from Eastern Europe was completely different. He said, ‘the basic problem with some Eastern European countries is that they did not eliminate all those counter revolutionaries. … Easter Europe just did not kill on a grand scale”


However, with the trend in the communist world lowing toward de-Stalinisation, Mao decided it was not wise to be too blatant about launching a purge as he done so many times in the past. To create a justification, he cooked up a devious plan and came up with an adage, ‘Let a hundred flowers bloom.’ It was trap set by Mao that none suspected. He was inviting people to speak out so that he could use what they said as an excuse to victimize them. He was targeting intellectuals and the educated, the people most likely to speak up. To one of his cronies he said that he was casting along line to bait big fish. People criticized the concentration of power, foreign policy, economic policy, regimes; secretiveness and judiciary and pretty much everything. Most of the criticism never reach the general public, as Moa only allowed carefully selected snippets to appear in the press. He made that criticisms were restricted to isolated campuses and individual institution, and these institutions were not permitted to contact each other. Dissent was thus kept rigidly fragmented, so a popular uprising was impossible.


Mao was surprised to hear in these criticisms that the leaderships was split with himself cast as the champion of dissent,. Many had mistakenly come to think that he was a liberal and appeals had been heard like; ‘Let us unite around Mao Tse-tun-Khrushhchev!’ Then he unleashed his persecution machine with a ‘Anti-Rightist Campaign’. The brief exciting moment of ‘a hundred flower’ was over.
As usual Moa set a quota for victim; between 1-10% of ‘intellectuals- the better educated. Consequently >5lacs were labelled as ‘Rightists’ However, he was very keen not to punish the top scientists as he needed them for his defence industrial complex. Those caught were put into ‘thought reform’ process which involved hard labour in labour camps. Many died of hunger, starvation and cold. Some committed suicide.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 30 Oct 2016 21:06

SSridhar wrote:
panduranghari wrote:In your judgment, has China considered the possibility of they themselves falling off their imaginary pedestal that have hoisted themselves on?

Nobody would know the answer to your question except probably the gang of seven that comprises the Standing Committee of the Politburo that rules China or some of the members of the Politburo. China is very dismissive of India and it probably thinks that even if China slows down considerably, it would simply be far ahead of India and in no real danger from that direction.


SS ji, often what's not emphasised is the fact that China has buffers all around its han core of coastal China. Frankly India doesn't have the military might to cross the Tibet and hit China. Often most observers think that Tibet is China and Xinjiang is China, but it's not China, if at all any sovereign country has any any land borders with China core, it is North Korea and that country is in firm grip of China. Nobody can do a Hiroshima or Nagasaki to China, there lies the feeling of security for the Chinese. The other thing about China, which is a recent development is its economy.

I can give an example of a person who behaves just like the Chinese from Panchatantra, his name is hiranyaka, the mouse which can jump above its weight to eat which was kept in cloth bag hanging from the tusk of an elephant fixed to a wall very high. The priest who keeps the food there was unable to control the mouse even though he knows the modus operandi of the mouse and keeps awake the whole night beating a metal drum, finally the priest's friend tells based on his wisdom that the mouse got the strength because of the treasure the mouse has got. The priest devices a method to take away the treasure, the mouse is not able to jump even 1 feet high.

A stagnation to the growth of China economy could be the Achilles heel. Other than that there is no fear for the Chinese. One more vulnerability is some how some one should make the strangle hold of CPC is broken by bribing the leadership. But for that also there is no body close enough to China, the device and rule would be effective only when somebody is already in side, there is none inside China who can destabilize the Chinese han.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 30 Oct 2016 21:39

TKiran wrote:A stagnation to the growth of China economy could be the Achilles heel. Other than that there is no fear for the Chinese. One more vulnerability is some how some one should make the strangle hold of CPC is broken by bribing the leadership. But for that also there is no body close enough to China, the device and rule would be effective only when somebody is already in side, there is none inside China who can destabilize the Chinese han.


I find that incorrect. The chini negotiating tactics are that of a paranoid nation and people feeling sorry for itself. There is no confidence in them. No confidence that would allow them to play by the rules for the greater good. No confidence that actually allows their army to fight or build bases overseas. They are the only P5 who hasn't any experience in warfare for the past 4 decades or so.

But they truly believe they are a lesser power surrounded by enemies (and that is true, especially on its eastern shore.) This gives them an excuse to cheat, lie and steal to advantage themselves at every opportunity because they feel disadvantaged. That is the true danger.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 30 Oct 2016 23:01

SS ji, often what's not emphasised is the fact that China has buffers all around its han core of coastal China. Frankly India doesn't have the military might to cross the Tibet and hit China. Often most observers think that Tibet is China and Xinjiang is China, but it's not China, if at all any sovereign country has any any land borders with China core, it is North Korea and that country is in firm grip of China. Nobody can do a Hiroshima or Nagasaki to China, there lies the feeling of security for the Chinese. The other thing about China, which is a recent development is its economy.


Not really so, the Han are petrified of the Buddhists in Tibet and to a lesser extent Mongolia as also the Mohammedans in the West. These people do sit along the supply lines to Aksai Chin/Ladakh, Arunachal. They are a potent internal security threat. India in fact has no such populace. ( It used to have a large domestic audience for its western rival, that has vanished along with any concept of rivalry with the Pakistanis).

Again through all the weakness, India has maintained sanctuary for the Dalai Lama as also Establishment 22 type investments.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 30 Oct 2016 23:59

Bart S wrote:
kit wrote:Thank you Sridhar !! .. all the more reason for a billion people for buy Indian 8)
Plus India is a the takeoff stage to rapidly grow and become one of the largest markets in the world. What is 10% today could grow to seriously cost them in terms of competitiveness tomorrow. It will also send a signal to MNCs that they should invest in manufacturing for India in India instead of importing from China.


PRC export is down this year. Evaporating trade surplus with India will have higher impact on their calculations to invest money on our enemies while earning $$ from us. China's economic Boycott by Bharati is beginning of beautiful bargain with them and the world.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 31 Oct 2016 00:02

The Chinese are only learning what all bankers know: If you lend a client a million dollars, you have him over a barrel; if you lend him a billion he has you over a barrel.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 31 Oct 2016 03:15

SSridhar saar +101 to your long post above, fantastic understanding of Indo Cheena problems : hats off !

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Rammpal » 31 Oct 2016 03:54

"...But they truly believe they are a lesser power surrounded by enemies (and that is true, especially on its eastern shore.) This gives them an excuse to cheat, lie and steal to advantage themselves at every opportunity because they feel disadvantaged. That is the true danger...."

Those are their defining traits.
How is something which is out in the open like that 'true danger' ? :|

The bigger challenge for India would be, how is Modiji planning to win/earn Chinese money ? 8)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 31 Oct 2016 05:43

Mao: The Unknown Story
Book by Jon Halliday and Jung Chang

Chapter 40. The Great Leap; ‘Half of China may well have to die’ (1958-61)

After successfully subduing his critics including some of the top leadership by accusing them of being ‘Rightists’ he proceeded to accelerate his ‘ Superpower program’ (but still concealed it from the public). Earlier he had a time line of a decade now he wanted to be there in a few as three years. He called this the infamous ‘THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD’

In public he marketed this as an effort to overtake capitalist countries in a short time. Only the top core knew he true intention. With the great leap forward he wished to control the planet. He told a group of select provincial chief ‘In the future we will set the Earth Control Committee, and make a uniform plan for Earth.’ He intended to dominate the world just like he had dominated China.
The great leap involved

- Agriculture:

More food was to be extracted from the farmers for export to pay for his defense spending. He accused the farmer of "stealing their own grain." Again he came up with a devious plan. He simply said that the forecast for the next few years indicates higher farm out Put. Based on these estimates the country chiefs had to extract x% of farm output. He even exclaimed ‘What do we do with all the extra food.’ In September the government mouth piece ‘People’s Daily’ reported that some areas had produced over 70 tons from less than 1/5 of an acre, which was hundreds of times the norm. This lead to mass deaths due to starvation, torture, and hunger. Mao simply passed the buck on to his underlings and blamed them. He would never accept responsibility for anything that went wrong. That year China exported nearly 5 million tons of grain only worth nearly a billion US$- this did not include meat and other products. He even ordered grains to be used to make ethanol and to be used in industries when people were dying of hunger.

So far he had not helped the farmers with any help to procure fertilizers or other farm equipment. When he saw that the farm output had not gone up he came with the idea of building large dams. Rural population were used as as slaves for the construction. The workers had to fend for themselves- bring their own food and even tools to the work. Mao was a man in a hurry and had disregard for planning and processes. There were hardly any geological surveys. The implementing party workers who were eager to please Mao did not oppose and worked without proper planning (as to not waste time). Many laborers died due to overwork. Most of the project turned out to be stupendous waste. Many were abandoned half way. There were many dam disasters as they crumbled leading to flood.

He had other crazy schemes implemented. To increase farm output he encouraged close planting of rice. He did not have the money to buy fertilizers so he encourage use of human excreta as fertilizer. Excreta from urban areas was allocated to a particular village and peasants would come before dawn to collect the waste. If this was not crazy enough he came with a campaign against four pests to be eliminated- rats, mosquito, flies and sparrows. Sparrows he said eat up the grain and forced people to wave sticks in the field trying to fend of sparrows and catch them. With fewer sparrows (which normally eat the insects and flies, etc) there was an ecological disaster. talk about don quixote :rotfl: He ignored pleas by scientists who warned him of ecological disaster. When he realized his mistake he apparently sent a request to USSR to send 32 lac sparrows.

- Steel Making:

The ‘SupeLpower programmer’ needed steel. He overworked the steel mills but he could not meet the target he had set. He came up with even weird idea of starting ‘Backyard Furnaces’ to be set by the general population. To feed these furnaces people were forced to part with every piece of metal in their possession- farm tools, utensils, water wagons, iron door handles and women’s hair-clips. Peasant houses were torn down, so the timber and thatched roofs could be burned a fuel. Many went homeless. There was widespread logging along the mountains which to caused flooding. In addition this mass steel making took away farmers from farming into this unproductive/destructive effort. So farm output also went down. Out of the 10.7 million tons of steel that was produced only 40% was good steel and more than and more than 3 m tons was useless. The good steel was produced by the stell mills and the useless steel from the ‘Backyard Furnaces’

The four year Leap from 1958-61 was an epic failure leading to waster of natural resources and human effort, probably the biggest in human history.

In 1958 he ordered the setting up of ‘[color=#4000FF]People’s Communes[/color].’ All the households had to handover their private plots, houses, animals and trees. They had to live in dormitories, there was a common kitchen. [b]To me it seems like humans were being organized along the lines of a beehive. There were workers (peasants), the soldiers (communist party workers) and the queen bee (Mao!). [/b] He even toyed the idea of getting ridding of people’s names and identifying them by numbers. This was tried out in one state. Because people were eating in the canteens and they had no need for their houses they were torn down. Three years late when these canteens were closed (did not save any money to have them) people could not go back as the houses were destroyed.
During this time he tore down many old Chinese architectural building and ordered many be remodeled like the British and Japanese buildings.

In 1958 there was Mao-made famine and the government even came up with suggestions on alternate foods. One was a green roe-like substance called chlorella, which grew in urine and contained some protein. AFTER Chou En-lai tasted and approved this stuff, it soon provided a high proportion of the urban population/s protein. There were many reports of cannibalism as well in the rural areas. While all this was happening food was rotting in the state granaries. Close to 3.8 crore people die in what was the biggest man made famine in history. During these years 7 million tons of food was exported by China. To me, there is a parallel to what the Brits did to India with the Bengal famine. Moa did this to his own people. When people died in mass Mao would say ‘This is good as they fertilize the ground.’ He even ordered to plant crops over burial plots, which caused intense anguish among the masses.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 31 Oct 2016 05:46

In effect Mao was playing the role of ya alla and PHUB to propagate his religion- Maoism

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 31 Oct 2016 06:29

sanjaykumar wrote:

Not really so, the Han are petrified of the Buddhists in Tibet and to a lesser extent Mongolia as also the Mohammedans in the West. These people do sit along the supply lines to Aksai Chin/Ladakh, Arunachal. They are a potent internal security threat. India in fact has no such populace. ( It used to have a large domestic audience for its western rival, that has vanished along with any concept of rivalry with the Pakistanis).

Again through all the weakness, India has maintained sanctuary for the Dalai Lama as also Establishment 22 type investments.


Sanjaykumar ji, it could be an internal security threat to Tibet. But most of us have been conditioned to think that Tibet is China. Believe me Tibet is buffer to han China. Geographically Tibet (areawise) is as big as India. If you have to hit China, you have to hit coastal China, which is a full India away. If you attack some han China soldiers in Tibet, you are still attacking Tibet, not China. You should understand the meaning of buffer, then only you will appreciate my point.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 31 Oct 2016 09:17

Rammpal wrote:"...But they truly believe they are a lesser power surrounded by enemies (and that is true, especially on its eastern shore.) This gives them an excuse to cheat, lie and steal to advantage themselves at every opportunity because they feel disadvantaged. That is the true danger...."

Those are their defining traits.
How is something which is out in the open like that 'true danger' ? :|

The bigger challenge for India would be, how is Modiji planning to win/earn Chinese money ? 8)



The "danger" is that we misinterpret their strategy and motivation as SSji's post seems to indicate a "strong" chiniland who believes itself above others. If you study chini negotiatons (both national and private) their stance is always that of the poor and aggrieved party which allows them to cheat, lie and steal with a kind of self-righteousness. So their motivation is directly opposite of what SSji's suggestion.

It is not really chini money we want but the monies of the MNCs fleeing the PRC's wage increases. They are already more than three and half times that of India ($3.52 for a chini worker vs $0.92 for an Indian.)

What Modi needs to do is improve our infrastructure and the natural gravity of lower costs should draw the MNCs in. But Modi must do this quick because the supply chains have been moving en masse to ASEAN and especially Vietnam.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 31 Oct 2016 13:50

Hilarious! EU Commissioner's view on the Chinese.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 87706.html
EU commissioner describes Chinese people as 'slit eyed' and jokes about 'compulsory gay marriage'
Guenther Oettinger described visiting Chinese businessmen as 'nine men, one party, and no democracy'

Samuel Osborne
Guenther Oettinger, European Commissioner for Digital Economy and Society, also joked about 'compulsory gay marriage' Adam Berry/Getty Images
Germany's EU commissioner has been accused of racism after he described Chinese people as "slit eyed".

Speaking to businessmen in Hamburg last week, Guenther Oettinger used the term "Schlitzaugen" ("slit eyes") to describe visiting Chinese businessmen, Reuters reports.

He said the congregation consisted of "nine men, one party, and no democracy".

"All of them in suits, single-breasted, dark blue jackets," he added. "All of them had their hair combed from left to right, with black shoe polish on their hair."

In an interview with German newspaper Die Welt, Mr Oettinger defended his comments. "That was a somewhat sloppy remark that was in no way meant to be disrespectful to China," he said.

He added: "You have to see the broader context in which I made my remarks. In my speech, I wanted to warn Germany of too much self-confidence."

In his speech, Mr Oettinger also joked about gay marriage. After criticising Germany's welfare system and Chancellor Angela Merkel's liberal policies, he said "perhaps compulsory gay marriage will be introduced".

His remarks were criticised by the German Federation of Lesbians and Gays (LSVD).

LSVD spokeswoman Stefanie Schmidt said: "An EU commissioner must be able to convincingly represent the European values of non-discrimination and not put the case for racist and homophobic prejudices."

Mr Oettinger has previously expressed doubts over whether the UK will leave the EU, saying he would not "place any major bets on Brexit".

Mr Oettinger accepted the Brexit referendum vote was "binding" but told German newspaper Bild: "It is possible that public opinion will tip if the economic situation in the wake of the Brexit vote worsens. In any case, I wouldn't place any major bets on Brexit."



PS:Didn't the good old Dook of Windsor "Phil the Greek" also describe on a visit to the Middle Kingdom these oriental gentlemen as such? " "If you stay here much longer you'll all be slitty–eyed."

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 31 Oct 2016 21:03

http://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard ... db353016d8

Sold: Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port And The World's Emptiest Airport Go To The Chinese


They can greet every plane and ship of IN operating out of TN from there.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 01 Nov 2016 05:41

Mao: The Unknown Story Paperback
by Jung Chang (Author), Jon Halliday (Author)

Chapter 41: Defense Minister Peng’s Lonely Battle (1958-59)

Only one man in the Politburo, Marshal Peng De-hui, the defense minister, had the courage to dissent and he talked about the catastrophe cause by the ‘Great Leap.’ Peng empathized with the poor as he himself came from a very poor background and had a famished childhood. He also did not like the fact that servicemen had to take oath in the name of Mao and not to the nation. He hated this personality cult. He spoke his mind and did not hold his feelings. Mao hated Peng but could not do much as he was quite popular among the ranks. However he elevated his crony Marshal Lin Biao to be the a vice-chairman of the party, which put Lin above PENG, IN THE ARMS AS WELL AS THE Party.

Peng tried to contact eastern European communist leaders to let them know the reality. He was met with deaf ears. The E German and Czek leaders did not care and were just happy to import from China as it met their needs- it had allowed E Germany to end rationings of Food in May 1958.

As usual Moa used on of his ad-hoc meetings to purge his opponent Peng. He called for meeting of he party leadership and allowed them to speak their mind and used their statement to get back at those who were putting obstacles to his crazy ideas which had cause the great famine. Peng was put under house arrest and a few were sent out to labour camps in N.W China. Family members of those purged disowned them including wife and children. Peng was replaced by Lin Biao as defense minister who developed ‘the Little Red Book’ a compilation of Moa’s quotes. This was made mandatory reading / memorizing for the armed forces.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby manju » 01 Nov 2016 05:41

Chapter 42: The Tibetans Rebel (1950-61).

Mao set his eyes on Tibet once he conquered China (away from the Nationalists). It seems Stalin was the one who proposed to Mao to flood Tibet with Han Chinese so they could form a quarter of the population (from 5%). Unlike other areas Tibetans continued to have personal arms.

Mao invited Dalai Lama to Peking (19 y old then) and sweet talked him. Dalai Lama found Mao very patronizing and tolerated him. When Mao tried to ‘requisition’ food from the Tibetan farmer, they rebelled. On 10 March 1959 an uprising broke out in Lhasa, after word spread that eh Chinese planned to kidnap the Dalai Lama. Mao let Dalai Lama escape to India. He did not kill Dalai Lama as he did not want to inflame world opinion, particularly in Buddhist countries and INDIA, WHICH Mao was courting.

Mao, then enquired about Tibetan practice (negative ones) and started a propaganda drive painting Tibet as a terrifying place, where gruesome tortures take place. After the war and confiscating Tibet it met the same fate as the rest of China under Mao. Nearly half of adult males were thrown into prison and labor camps. Nuns and lamas were forced to break celibacy vows and forced to marry. According to Panchen Lama, the number of monasteries in Tibet fell from more than 2500 before 1959 to ‘only just over 70’ in 1961, and the number of monks and nuns fro over 1,10,00 to 7,000 (some 10,000 fled abroad)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Rammpal » 01 Nov 2016 05:52

^^^ ".....particularly in Buddhist countries and INDIA, WHICH Mao was courting....."

Courting?
What does that mean - invasion ?!!


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