'Make in India' Single engined fighter

[shiv]

Hot war or not, local dominance and later global clout requires build up ASAP

[Rishi Verma]

Supply-chain, babudom, nehruvian PSUs etc are philosophical. Think of the guys on the shop floor where the work gets done.

....They are all entitled to increments, government holidays, restricted holidays etc.

For a technical person on the shop floor - it is true that he is a key element. But an organization that is full of other employees who will never leave because it is an easy and cushy job is never going to rise above their inefficiencies.

Two points:
One: In a large or small company, any workflow related problems are almost 100% the result of top management policies (or screw ups) and almost 0 % the result of presence of unions, cushy life-time jobs, taking many holidays, or getting undeserved increments.

Two: I have followed modi since before he became the CM of Gujarat, as a CM his favourite line was "I use the same Karkoons, same paperwork, same procedures, same file-folders, and I get things done 10x faster"

The main issue at HAL is lack of leadership that fails to inspire the rank and file.

[Karan M]

I have always said that it is not transfer of technology that is important but transfer of the brains behind the technology. One of the reasons ISRO is successful is that it's earliest scientists, people like APJ Kalam saw first hand and learned space technology at NASA. And when they came back they were given a relatively free hand by Vikram Sarabhai who had enough clout with GOI to run ISRO his way. The result is the ISRO of today.

oh come on ldev, ISRO being duccessful due to NASA? seriously..

HAL is what it is, because many in GOI wanted HAL, BEML to remain the way they are. First family figured out the import assemble bijness a long way back..

[Karan M]

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.co.nz/

Colonel Shukla reports that Boeing has recieved request or interest from IAF for a twin engine fighter.
What the hell is wrong with us.

And last not least do we want another thread called Indian twin engined fighter or would you like this renamed as ... we don't know what hell we want ?

Hallmarks of the IAF Mod getting into yet another farce.

[Karan M]

Hot war may likely happen and the govt may foresee something brewing. But just because Modi & Co see it, that is not going to speed up the process of acquiring 200 single engine (or twin engine) fighters. This still has to go through the various stages from RFI (where it is now) to RFP to evaluation to down select to negotiation to signing of contract. The bureaucracy will insist on this and Modi is limited in his options to make that process go any faster. This is the MMRCA tamasha all over again.

Nailed it. If focus is on fighying a war, stockpile Su30 spares, fix basic weapons availability as versus spending much money and time on imports that will come many years from now.

[ldev]

I have always said that it is not transfer of technology that is important but transfer of the brains behind the technology. One of the reasons ISRO is successful is that it's earliest scientists, people like APJ Kalam saw first hand and learned space technology at NASA. And when they came back they were given a relatively free hand by Vikram Sarabhai who had enough clout with GOI to run ISRO his way. The result is the ISRO of today.

oh come on ldev, ISRO being duccessful due to NASA? seriously..

HAL is what it is, because many in GOI wanted HAL, BEML to remain the way they are. First family figured out the import assemble bijness a long way back..

The relevant point I am making is that it is the hands on experience learned in a successful organization that is more important then the transfer of blueprints of building a specific aircraft which is what everyone seems to be clamoring for i.e. TOT. Kalam could have learned space technology anywhere, NASA or in Russia. But it was the fundamental principles he learned in a successful organization and then built on those principles to successfully build a series of rocket launchers in India.

We view HAL as successful primarily because of the number of aircraft that it has built. But takeaway the collaborations, primarily Russian and the Jaguar and what else has HAL done organically. And the collaborations were spoon-fed situations. The Russians even established their own fiefdom in Nasik.

[JayS]

Hot war may likely happen and the govt may foresee something brewing. But just because Modi & Co see it, that is not going to speed up the process of acquiring 200 single engine (or twin engine) fighters. This still has to go through the various stages from RFI (where it is now) to RFP to evaluation to down select to negotiation to signing of contract. The bureaucracy will insist on this and Modi is limited in his options to make that process go any faster. This is the MMRCA tamasha all over again.

Nailed it. If focus is on fighying a war, stockpile Su30 spares, fix basic weapons availability as versus spending much money and time on imports that will come many years from now.

+1.

Do we see any increase in Su-30MKI production even for the remaining ones let alone ordering beyond 272?? If there is a war coming, that's the first thing GOI should be doing as far as addition of numbers is concerned. Because that the bird in hand, literally.

To credit GOI, they are doing few things to jack up preparedness in short term.

[JayS]

Let me stick my neck out and say this - I see as much brain washing about Capitalism and privatization today in India as it was about Socialism being the panacea for all our problems before 1970s.

Another thing is, there is a need to see DPSUs as what they are, part of GOI - not separate entities from GOI, which can do whatever they wanted to do like a private companies but didn't do *only* because they were lazy bums wanting to relax while drawing ever increasing salaries with inpunity for inefficiency. Would we blame Private companies, and then alone whole and sole, to be gross inefficient, unimaginative and bunch of losers for not doing anything of significance till 1991??

Just trying to bring in perspective that I see lacking generally in understanding the situation, or not being highlighted enough. I seriously respect Modi's organisational and leadership skills when he can get far more work done by the same system, while other just keep cribbing about it. He says he is not interesting in going after anyone particularly for past sins until they are working now for good, and to be sure he does extract good work from them.

[JayS]

I have always said that it is not transfer of technology that is important but transfer of the brains behind the technology. One of the reasons ISRO is successful is that it's earliest scientists, people like APJ Kalam saw first hand and learned space technology at NASA. And when they came back they were given a relatively free hand by Vikram Sarabhai who had enough clout with GOI to run ISRO his way. The result is the ISRO of today.

oh come on ldev, ISRO being duccessful due to NASA? seriously..

HAL is what it is, because many in GOI wanted HAL, BEML to remain the way they are. First family figured out the import assemble bijness a long way back..

To me the key difference between ISRO/DAE and rest of RnD establishment is lack of autonomy and presence of constant fiddling by babudom in the later.

[Bart S]

I think Indian govt is sensing something,

That could be one explanation. Or, simply that they are applying basic common sense and doing their duty in equipping the armed forces with at least the bare minimum needed for warfighting, something that the governments over the last 3 decades have miserably failed at.

[ldev]

To me the key difference between ISRO/DAE and rest of RnD establishment is lack of autonomy and presence of constant fiddling by babudom in the later.

It is no coincidence that the founders of ISRO and DAE were Vikram Sarabhai and Homi Bhabha, two individuals who were skilled in their respective domains and had clout with JLN to shape their organizations as they saw fit. That founding culture remains in those organizations.

HAL is a stepchild pulled in different directions with the various collaborations and no identity and drive.

[JayS]

To me the key difference between ISRO/DAE and rest of RnD establishment is lack of autonomy and presence of constant fiddling by babudom in the later.

It is no coincidence that the founders of ISRO and DAE were Vikram Sarabhai and Homi Bhabha, two individuals who were skilled in their respective domains and had clout with JLN to shape their organizations as they saw fit. That founding culture remains in those organizations.

HAL is a stepchild pulled in different directions with the various collaborations and no identity and drive.

Not to forget these two things were considered utmost important for National Security and were not at all available for free access - particularly after Nehru shut the doors on US due to his NAM philosophy. The other sectors were not judged of same importance. Also not to forget Nehru had a thing for S&T and despised anything related to Defense. Its no coincidence that only these two sectors were given freedom from babudom. If we had Dept of Aeronautics on the same lines directly under PMO, we would have seen far different picture today in Aerospace. This particular proposal is being shot down for decades by vested interests. Something which was not allowed in Space/Atomic energy because they were part of core National Security which was protected by design.

I refuse to believe there was no one to take lead in Aerospace just like Vikram Sarabhai or Homi Bhabha. Its just they were never brought up because of Nehru's inherent disdain for defense related matter, and thus we would probably never know about them. NAL had had few good people in 60's/70s.

My whole point is these things are driven by the GOI and whoever is running GOI. Cannot blame/give credit to individuals or organisations alone who had no autonomy or power to make policy changes. One stupid babu seating is MoD can reck havoc and over-power entire Armed Forces. What does that tell you?? Case of RnD orgs is not very different.

[ldev]

Also not to forget Nehru had a thing for S&T and despised anything related to Defense. Its no coincidence that only these two sectors were given freedom from babudom. If we had Dept of Aeronautics on the same lines directly under PMO, we would have seen far different picture today in Aerospace.

It is quite possible that in the absence of JLN's disdain for defence issues/the armed forces and the presence of a Bhabha/Sarabhai like figure for Aeronautics, HAL could have been in a different place entirely, maybe building a HF-84 by now , a 5th generation fighter!!.

But the reality that India faces today is that HAL is in the doldrums and IMO cannot be reformed. So the Modi option for building a military industrial complex in the private sector is probably the quickest way forward.

[D.Mahesh]

ISRO not comparable to HAL. HAL is a mass production case - even allowing for fact that airframe types are made in batches, blocks, etc. After very detailed reviews of the INSAS 5.56 and how shoddy a finished product it is - please see what a wide gulf is there between design and manufacturing.

[JayS]

It is quite possible that in the absence of JLN's disdain for defence issues/the armed forces and the presence of a Bhabha/Sarabhai like figure for Aeronautics, HAL could have been in a different place entirely, maybe building a HF-84 by now , a 5th generation fighter!!.

But the reality that India faces today is that HAL is in the doldrums and IMO cannot be reformed. So the Modi option for building a military industrial complex in the private sector is probably the quickest way forward.

IMO it can be. I put forth my opinion in LCA thread some time ago. If we wait for HAL to be killed a natural death a la HMT way it will be decades before it happens and by that time so much of resources will be sunk in to it, it would prove to be incredibly inefficient. Autonomy is way to go. GOI should let go HAL, and let it float on its own. Don't bail it out, don't suck dividends from them. Just let them be on their own. Let them function as they see fit, just cut them slack from govt rules of pay scales and quotas. In short give then full financial and administrative Autonomy. It if sinks from there , well you anyway wanted it to sink. But if it goes up from there, the nation only gains from it.

[ShauryaT]

To me the key difference between ISRO/DAE and rest of RnD establishment is lack of autonomy and presence of constant fiddling by babudom in the later.

Works for "scientific" organization but only to an extent. DAE/BARC is another example, that enjoyed such autonomy, under Babha. However, it leads to inefficiencies as they scale as DAE's trials and evolutions have proved. NONE of the so called navratna PSU's (HAL being one of them) would have any jewels, were they to NOT enjoy their monopolies. The rot that PSU's are and DPSU's are no exception is a massive fraud on India. Does not mean no good ever was done. Does not mean all in it are rotten. Just that the system that balances risk, reward, accountabilities, conflict of interest is not designed to ever produce a net ROI for the Indian nation.

Sorry: this topic though somewhat related is way out the remit of this thread. Those interested in the topic may read http://www.amazon.in/Governance-Scleros ... 8129105241

Modi's instincts are to reform from within not bomb them and hang them to dry. We will see if his methods succeed.

[shiv]

Two points:
One: In a large or small company, any workflow related problems are almost 100% the result of top management policies (or screw ups) and almost 0 % the result of presence of unions, cushy life-time jobs, taking many holidays, or getting undeserved increments.

I am not going to dispute what you post as fact, but I ask if these studies have been done in Indian PSUs? Or Indian government establishments?

The way things work is exemplified by what I see in innumerable offices. For example in an Insurance company office (the online portal does not work) the clerk takes my cheque and prints out the car insurance policy. But it needs the boss's signature. The boss's cubicle is just 10 feet away - but it has to be taken to the boss by a designated office courier who is hanging around, If that chap is having his morning coffee - religiously brought in at 11 AM - we wait.

There are too many employees and everyone has a role and only the newbies over enthusiastically play roles that they are not supposed to play. In the shop floor how this pans out will be in pushing a trolley of tools or fetching something that is by the side. There will be a designated person for this. In a private hospital I will simply go and pick up what I need - say a syringe - from shelf. In the government hospital the orderly must arrive to get a syringe that sits in full view 5 feet away.

Two: I have followed modi since before he became the CM of Gujarat, as a CM his favourite line was "I use the same Karkoons, same paperwork, same procedures, same file-folders, and I get things done 10x faster"

The main issue at HAL is lack of leadership that fails to inspire the rank and file.

That is why Modi is PM and that is why HAL promises us no more than 16 per year. The work culture is bad and calling for "good leadership" is akin to wishing that my aunt had been my uncle, if only she had the necessary organs. Those PSU bosses have come up in a system of sycophancy, inefficiency, sipharish, reservation etc. Inspiration can come only from leaders who are leaders, not people who have risen by number of years in teh organization

[shiv]

I think Indian govt is sensing something,

That could be one explanation. Or, simply that they are applying basic common sense and doing their duty in equipping the armed forces with at least the bare minimum needed for warfighting, something that the governments over the last 3 decades have miserably failed at.

I doubt if GoI is sensing anything suddenly. War prep would have happened months before the surgical strike.

This is all a long term plan as part of the vision for the nation IMHO

[Surya]

afriend who has no interest in defense said - we should go in for transferring both lines F 16 and F 18

I laughed and said - nice dream but cannot afford unless the IAF is not expected to order them

now shukla says this


strange

[Rahul M]

changed the thread title as it was too long.

[yensoy]

To me the key difference between ISRO/DAE and rest of RnD establishment is lack of autonomy and presence of constant fiddling by babudom in the later.

Works for "scientific" organization but only to an extent. DAE/BARC is another example, that enjoyed such autonomy, under Babha. However, it leads to inefficiencies as they scale as DAE's trials and evolutions have proved. NONE of the so called navratna PSU's (HAL being one of them) would have any jewels, were they to NOT enjoy their monopolies...

To be fair to them, many of these Navratnas have also monopoly customers. If you have only one customer, that customer controls you. Yes we can talk about exports and fun theoretical stuff, but the reality is that 90+% of your production is going to be supplied to the Railways, or Army, or Air Force... Would you as an individual start a company which caters to only one customer, and literally exists at the whims and fancies of said customer?

The way out would be to diversify - so a single heavy engineering corporation specializing in high power engines and transmissions should supply to both Railways and Navy and possibly other customers. Like "Mitsubishi Heavy Industries". Such an organization needs to be agile - it should be easy to redeploy personnel & equipment across product lines (which also means that shop floor workers, engineers and management have to be on a path of continuous learning and skills upgradation - a concept foreign to PSUs).

Unfortunately we set up a bunch of small units with very specific names, locations and product offerings which have ossified over the past decades with entrenched staff unwilling to trade up, out-of-date machines and technologies and dying markets.

[Manish_Sharma]

1.
1947 Socialist leftist nehru decided to make money for congress party by defence acquisition by importing arms ammunition from foreign nations. While killing local capitalist business possiblities.

This way nehru and congress being THE govt. controlled the PSUs while only few british time industrialist house were allowed to continue as they were also friends of congress party.

If more business houses had come up they may have given money to other political parties.

Also armed forces can never become strong and able to fight long wars on Imported maal, so keeping them weak; very much in line of nehru-congi thinking.

2.
While henry ford invented the first "assembly line" of cars & same sort of inventions have been allowed in usa for their "enterpreneurs" ; either the system has been rigged in Bharat against our interpreneurs OR as a separate race from usa we Bharatvasis simply don't have it anymore. I don't know.

But Henry Ford saw that lot more orders are their for the cars, hence he invested in creating an "assembly line" , while seeing the needs for "steel bridges" andrew carnegie created giant "steel industry" in america.

Same way to break this rut of "imported arms", NaMo has to give an order in "huge numbers" to create an Bharatiya Military Industrial Complex.

But there are problems, Nehru-congi system has created a whole culture of "import and only import" in bureacracy and armed forces.

The thing is so bad that IAF brass convinces IITian Parrikar that against 2 front war with cheenis & porkis only 90 more "medium fighters" will do as only they can do "deep strike". Now the demand could have been genuine if they said we need either :
126 Rafale OR 270 Tejas for the job.

But they say no only Rafale OR any other western jet. Even Tejas sized grippen is ok for them.

While field pilots who have flown Tejas are happy, but as we saw in General Sh. V.K. Singh's case that promotions etc. have been given to congis' own men mostly and they talk.

"What deep strike"? one may ask. Pakistan is having a depth of 300 kms.

While how deep in Cheen will Rafale strike lugging those fuel tanks?

Nope. If rafale carries a certain payload to certain range with its 2 snecma engines. Then 2 Tejas can do the same using 2 GE 404 engines.

Then again import pasand establishment of ours can send RFIs to grippen and f-18 in same medium catagory.

To make Bharat great NaMo has to show that Bharat can manufacture 36 tejas per year. If he has to buy certain "aviation alloys" tech from west or get the western company to set up a factory here. Only then can some real change happen otherwise.

From 1978 to 2018 only change from Indira to Modi will be Jaguar assembly to F-16 assembly.

[Rakesh]

changed the thread title as it was too long.

Saar you should have waited until the end of next week...by then you could have renamed it to triple engine, 400 aircraft, ToT in India competition.

It is amazing how the goalposts have been shifted from one week to the next. Until last week it was 120 single engine fighters. Now that the Indian populace digested that ladoo, the next ladoo arrived...twin engine, 200 aircraft order. Now we will argue this for the next week or two till the third ladoo arrives (pls do not show me the preview of the third one...I already have indegestion from sallowing the first one and I cannot fathom the idea of consuming the second).

[Rakesh]

Nailed it. If focus is on fighying a war, stockpile Su30 spares, fix basic weapons availability as versus spending much money and time on imports that will come many years from now.

+1.

Do we see any increase in Su-30MKI production even for the remaining ones let alone ordering beyond 272?? If there is a war coming, that's the first thing GOI should be doing as far as addition of numbers is concerned. Because that the bird in hand, literally. To credit GOI, they are doing few things to jack up preparedness in short term.

Better that wasting precious time & money on this single/twin engine nonsense, it would make better sense as you and Karan have said. Get the serviceability way up, purchase more weaponry, buy more tankers and AWACS, get more S-400s than the five we just bought, focus on increasing the # of pilots to join the fighter stream (what is the use of 120 or 200 fighters if there is an acute shortage of pilots?), etc. This would be a far better use of resources than spending money on shiny phoren toys.

As you all know, the Army uses a concept called teeth-to-tail ratio (Karan M and rohitvats are the subject matter experts on that topic). The Air Force has/wants shiny teeth, but due to poor planning and Air Marshals drooling over glossy brochures has completely dropped the ball on the tail.

[saptarishi]

Many are against this single engine "Make in India" fighter but i guess this perfectly makes sense. IAF needs 42 Squadrons by 2027 and 45 by 2032. 13 from Su-30MKI, 2 fromRafale, 11 from Mirage/Mig-29/Jaguar and 6 from Tejas mki/mk1a, which makes it 32 squadrons.
Still a shortfall of 10 squadrons.
With AMCA and LCA mk2 no where in sight and FGFA slated for 2023-24 induction IAF will be severely short of squadrons.
If we assume that 5 squadrons of FGFA we have by 2032 still India will need 8 squadrons (short fall of 144-160 aircraft since a squadron has 18-20 aircrafts).
This is where the this Make in India fighter will pitch in. We need money for 36 Rafales, 3.87 billion dollar for FGFA development and also close to 10-12 billion more for 100 odd FGFA procurement.
We will also neet few billions for Tejas mk-1a, AMCA development and SU-30MKI Super-30 upgrades. This effectively rules out Eurofighter,Rafale and F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet since these are very costly to be produced in numbers wth tech transfer. Mig-35 is ruled out since IAF does not want to put all eggs in russian basket.
This makes strong case for F-16V/Block 70 and Gripen NG.
F-16 is good. Will have APG-80/83 AESA but since everyone knows that it is "THE F-16" which Pakistan got over 30 years back (even though this is the latest version) IAF will be reluctant. Plus USA will have some serious issues in tech transfer. Moreover F-16 is nearing the end of its life cycle. This leaves Gripen NG or JAS-39E as the front line contender for many reasons which are as follows:-
1) Good Tech Transfer offer
2)Low lifecycle and maintenance costs
3) SAAB's assistance in TEJAS and AMCA
4)Plane is very advanced because its loaded with goodies like RS-05A Raven AESA, Israeli PAWS-2 Missile approach warning suite from Elisra, latest Brite Cloud towed decoys , awesome weaponry comprising of Meteor/Python 5/Taurus KEPD/RBS 15/IRIS-T missiles and SPICE and Paveway Bombs with Litening pods and an awesome fifth generation cockpit as seen in the below image. This is the Gripen NG cockpit for Brazilian Gripens. Brazilians have gone for Israeli Cockpit NG through ELBIT's Brazilian subsidiary AEL. India aslo has HALBIT which would manufacture the latest cockpit for Gripen in India.


So i guess this deal will make sense if India goes for Gripen. This would certainly help LCA MK2 and AMCA too.

[Rakesh]

saptarishi: are you a retired/serving Air Marshal?

P.S. You have committed harakiri by endorsing the Gripen on BRF.

[Cosmo_R]

Fantasy fight: F-16V vs. Gripen E from a F-16 (former) operator

https://fightersweep.com/6024/dogfight- ... 9e-gripen/

When is the Gripe E due again? 2025?

The IAF needs minimum of 200 a.c by 2021-22

[Khalsa]

changed the thread title as it was too long.

Thanks Rahul ....... it was needed (the change).
Can you ommit the single engined part as well so we can build the rumours or reality of F-18 request instead of having another thread.

Just call it Make in India Medium Role Fighter

[Viv S]

Best to wait until we have more to go on than just anticipation from Boeing.

[Indranil]

I love this Boeing thing. I am really hoping that the Russians also enter with the Mig-35. That will be the fastest way to getting 200 aircrafts into the IAF by 2021.

[Bart S]

Many are against this single engine "Make in India" fighter but i guess this perfectly makes sense. IAF needs 42 Squadrons by 2027 and 45 by 2032. 13 from Su-30MKI, 2 fromRafale, 11 from Mirage/Mig-29/Jaguar and 6 from Tejas mki/mk1a, which makes it 32 squadrons.
Still a shortfall of 10 squadrons.
With AMCA and LCA mk2 no where in sight and FGFA slated for 2023-24 induction IAF will be severely short of squadrons.
If we assume that 5 squadrons of FGFA we have by 2032 still India will need 8 squadrons (short fall of 144-160 aircraft since a squadron has 18-20 aircrafts).
This is where the this Make in India fighter will pitch in. We need money for 36 Rafales, 3.87 billion dollar for FGFA development and also close to 10-12 billion more for 100 odd FGFA procurement.
We will also neet few billions for Tejas mk-1a, AMCA development and SU-30MKI Super-30 upgrades. This effectively rules out Eurofighter,Rafale and F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet since these are very costly to be produced in numbers wth tech transfer. Mig-35 is ruled out since IAF does not want to put all eggs in russian basket.
This makes strong case for F-16V/Block 70 and Gripen NG.
F-16 is good. Will have APG-80/83 AESA but since everyone knows that it is "THE F-16" which Pakistan got over 30 years back (even though this is the latest version) IAF will be reluctant. Plus USA will have some serious issues in tech transfer. Moreover F-16 is nearing the end of its life cycle. This leaves Gripen NG or JAS-39E as the front line contender for many reasons which are as follows:-
1) Good Tech Transfer offer
2)Low lifecycle and maintenance costs
3) SAAB's assistance in TEJAS and AMCA
4)Plane is very advanced because its loaded with goodies like RS-05A Raven AESA, Israeli PAWS-2 Missile approach warning suite from Elisra, latest Brite Cloud towed decoys , awesome weaponry comprising of Meteor/Python 5/Taurus KEPD/RBS 15/IRIS-T missiles and SPICE and Paveway Bombs with Litening pods and an awesome fifth generation cockpit as seen in the below image. This is the Gripen NG cockpit for Brazilian Gripens. Brazilians have gone for Israeli Cockpit NG through ELBIT's Brazilian subsidiary AEL. India aslo has HALBIT which would manufacture the latest cockpit for Gripen in India.


So i guess this deal will make sense if India goes for Gripen. This would certainly help LCA MK2 and AMCA too.

Let us look at your points, in comparison with the LCA
1> Already own most of the tech and IP
2> Same with LCA
3> Debatable, more likely will kill the LCA by the presence of another fighter in the same weight class, one that pays dividends in Swiss bank accounts too.
4> The same shiny baubles and doodads can be fitted in the LCA as well.

So it actually makes no sense for this particular competition. Of course, we aren't known to be sensible with procurement decisions.

[ramana]

afriend who has no interest in defense said - we should go in for transferring both lines F 16 and F 18

I laughed and said - nice dream but cannot afford unless the IAF is not expected to order them

now shukla says this


strange

Yesterday I too felt India needs to get both F-16 and F-18 lines and start new aerospace lines to parallel HAL.

If US can have LM, Boeing, Northrup as main aero companies, India could have 3 lines.

Off course spin of HAL.

I felt this because MoD had parked Rs51,000 crores in HAL which was asking for Rs 2500 crores to ramp up LCA production and showing interest earned as profit.

If this not a scam what is?

[ArmenT]

oh come on ldev, ISRO being duccessful due to NASA? seriously..

HAL is what it is, because many in GOI wanted HAL, BEML to remain the way they are. First family figured out the import assemble bijness a long way back..

The relevant point I am making is that it is the hands on experience learned in a successful organization that is more important then the transfer of blueprints of building a specific aircraft which is what everyone seems to be clamoring for i.e. TOT. Kalam could have learned space technology anywhere, NASA or in Russia. But it was the fundamental principles he learned in a successful organization and then built on those principles to successfully build a series of rocket launchers in India.

IIRC, APJ Kalam only spent a couple of days visiting NASA facilities and that was it. For the record, he wasn't very good as a rocket scientist either (If I recall correctly, he graduated last in his class at Madras Institute of Tech.). His real talent was as a manager. It is no joke organizing a bunch of scientists and knowing when to stand back and not interfere with their work, this was something he really excelled at.

Now back to your regularly scheduled Single engined fighter programming.

[Indranil]

Ramana sir,

I can't tell you how strongly I feel that HAL's monopoly should be broken. But this screwdrivergiri does not solve that problem. After the assembly of the F-16s is complete what expertise would the company have developed? Could it design new aircrafts or new parts? Will Indian companies have learnt to design and build major aircraft parts? The answer unfortunately is no.

If we want India's aero industry to flourish we need to develop our Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers. Without them you can't design and build aircrafts in the country. This screwdriver in India program does not develop that.

Actually, there exists a real path to do so. Give orders for another private LCA line. Many of LCA's part are built in the country. Let those companies learn how to scale up while maintaining quality. Without that capability, having yet another aircraft assembler is baseless. After that line ends, no real capability to design and build an indigenous aircraft is developed or retained.

[Rishirishi]

Go for Gripen NG on the condition that India gets to purchase 50% of SAAB and the new company develop the medium fighter together in future. Sweden may just accept the offer. It does not have many choices.

[Y I Patel]

Surya, It's not F16 and F18. It's F16 or F18 or something else like Eurofigther/Gripen/even Rafale. For some unfathomable reason MoD is on track to put out two separate requests. But the fact that this new request was going to be going out was let out long ago - I remember a senior Boeing executive saying that such a revised tender was expected to come out several months ago (or maybe even last year) - I believe I heard that on the panel discussion involving Manohar Parrikar and other industry executives that was very well received on BRF. In that sense, this is just a new iteration of the old MMRCA tender, but with revised ground rules.

Again, I can't figure out why this roundabout way of doing it. But it will become clear in the coming weeks that the competition is going to be between the manufacturers that participated in the old competition but without the technical component to avoid the situation that came to pass the last time over.

[Rishi Verma]

Self-deleted rant-e-truth

[amit]

Ramana sir,

I can't tell you how strongly I feel that HAL's monopoly should be broken. But this screwdrivergiri does not solve that problem. After the assembly of the F-16s is complete what expertise would the company have developed? Could it design new aircrafts or new parts? Will Indian companies have learnt to design and build major aircraft parts? The answer unfortunately is no.

If we want India's aero industry to flourish we need to develop our Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 manufacturers. Without them you can't design and build aircrafts in the country. This screwdriver in India program does not develop that.

Actually, there exists a real path to do so. Give orders for another private LCA line. Many of LCA's part are built in the country. Let those companies learn how to scale up while maintaining quality. Without that capability, having yet another aircraft assembler is baseless. After that line ends, no real capability to design and build an indigenous aircraft is developed or retained.

Indranil

I've been following this thread with keen interest and I believe that there is merit in the stand you and others have taken vis a vis this Make in India move. However, I also believe that those who are supporting this Make in India F16/Gripen manufacturing idea also have a merit in what they are saying. Now one would ask how can both sides be right?

I think its important to have a look at how China has built its (increasingly sophisticated) aerospace industry to get a clue to why exactly Modi and Parrikar are supporting this move to assemble a new fighter aircraft in India and why this per se should pose no threat to the Tejas programme.

There are many good analysis of the Chinese aerospace industry but this Royal Aeronautical Society is worth checking out.

For example, some excerpts:

China has benefitted from long term collaboration with western manufacturers. Beginning with the McDonnell
Douglas MD-82 ‘Trunkliner’ programme in the 1990s, China has worked with a number of US and European companies

So it collaborates with both Russia and US/Europe.

China has also re-organised its defence industrial assets the better to design, develop and manufacturer advanced
weaponry. This will include a limited privatisation of all but the most sensitive of the state-owned defence companies to
encourage private investment. The aim is to rationalise disparate assets and to improve efficiency and effectiveness.
Currently, China’s defence companies have assets worth an estimated $315bn have some 70 subsidiaries with over 40
defence listed businesses.

So even the Chinese understand that privatisation is the way to go to increase efficiency. Now here's the thing, parts of the state run Chinese aerospace industry can be privatised by a Chinese babu signing off some papers (and perhaps taking an ang bao under that table). Now imagine the kind of brouhaha that would start if Modi/Parrikar decided to try to privatise a part of HAL? How about the political consequences of a decision to open a private sector line to manufacture the LCA, asking HAL to teach a private player all the manufacturing expertise that it has acquired? Do you think the powerful public sector unions are going to keep quiet and cheer along? Heck half of HAL employees will go on strike saying the that their roti, roji is being taken away from them. These things don't happen in a vacuum but in the reality of the dirty politics that is played out everyday in India.

So what do these folk do? They can't privatise HAL or ADA for the matter but they understand a MIL needs to be built with most of it in the private sector (they have ample evidence that MIL in the public sector doesn't work). They try to kick start the MIL. Is that a correct way to go? Well time will only tell. But with two options, one was to sit on their hands (like UPA) or to go out and try to do something about it, they chose the latter. Does that mean they are working for anti-Indian interests and are out to kill the LCA?

However, the Chinese remain heavily reliant on foreign firms to provide critical components and technologies for these
aircraft. More than 20 overseas firms are partnering on the ARJ21, including General Electric (engines), Rockwell Collins (avionics), Liebheer (landing gear), and Parker Aerospace (flight controls). In addition, the ARJ21’s nose cone is a direct copy of the MD-82. For its part, CFM International will supply its LEAP turbofan engine for the C-919, and it will subsequently build an assembly line in China for series production.

Moral: Put money on the table and a lot of the tech denial regime falls by the wayside.

For much of the period since the 1950s, China has depended on a mixture of, “buying, building or stealing” to acquire a
military aerospace capability.

Unfortunately we are too dharmic for our own good and couldn't go this route.

With the advent of Deng Xiaoping’s Open Door policy of the late 1970s and early 1980s, China’s defence aerospace industry benefited from direct technology transfer, such as GEC-Marconi avionics used in several Chinese military aircraft. Western technology also helped China to develop a fly-by-wire competence.

The rise of Chinese economic power and the attractions of its market have begun to change the balance of bargaining
power with prospective partners in the west and seem to be overriding Russian reluctance to sell its most advanced
products. Western companies have begun to locate R&D facilities in China as part of wider commercial initiatives;
this increases China’s overall research competence through training and exposure to new knowledge. In the latter case,
Russian desperation to maintain its own indigenous industry may be a critical factor in effecting the shift in bargaining
power.

I think this "exposure to new knowledge" is significant. Assuming a F16 factory is set up in collaboration with, say the Tatas, do you think once the production run is over - even if its just screwdrivergiri - the management of this private company is going to pack up their bags say bye bye to all infrastructure built up and close down the unit? Or maybe they would turn it into a museum on India's failed MIL effort?

This is an important point that India needs to emulate irrespective of whether there is a made in india plane or we just go for more LCAs:

Reverse engineering at this level itself implies a high degree of technical competence; China has invested heavily in the
research and technological infrastructure that is the precondition of acquiring a world class aerospace industry. For example, the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics in Beijing is the country’s primary centre for aerodynamic research and testing. It already has 25 wind tunnels, including transonic and supersonic facilities and its activities also include missile and space research.

Bottomline, I think what is being attempted is to kick start a new player in the private sector in the hope that this new player will be able to absorb enough technology to move forward with new projects once this current run is over. After all, didn't HAL develop its own expertise by initially doing screwdrivergiri with Russian and French products? Today it can design something like the LCH and finetune the Tejas production.

As to scrapping Tejas, look if the government wants to do that it can do so anytime, heck it could have done so anytime over the past 10 years and yet here we are with a marvellous aircraft flying proudly. And if the government support remains behind Tejas, they will ensure that IAF takes come what may. Raha says 42 squadrons are the ideal for the IAF. Now will he or his successor say No to 45-47 squadrons (filled with MK1A dn MK2) if the government pays for them?

PS: I've said this many times in many threads, and others have too. India with a $3 trillion plus GDP is a far different beast than an India with $600-700 billion GDP. I think when we look at tech denial regimes 10-15 years ago (I think I've read Pressler a dozen times on this thread) it's worth remembering this. And you want proof? Just look at China.

[shiv]

Self-deleted rant-e-truth

LOL - I saw the rant and had it in my cache.

I won't post the whole thing but you brought up a valid point that connects with an earlier post of yours

How many ***** have done anything for "swachchh-bharat" campaign?

I must point out that I (and lots of people including my SHQ) have been neck deep in this stuff - but we started 5 years before the swacch bharat campaign started. But you had said something about inspiring leadership.

When the Prime Minister himself moots something it gives great power to those who want that thing to be done. The sense of power we have in getting things cleaned up now after the swacch bharat campaign started is fantastic compared to the sense of powerlessness we had earlier.

But that is a digression

In the LCA thread I posted quotes from a CAG report that spoke of stupid delays like setting up a hangar - but there are other things I have quoted that call for "intrspection" as your rant suggested. HAL had ordered (or failed to order on time) several machines, and at least one was delayed because the supplier failed to demonstrate that it works.

It appears that our country does not have spare capacity where there are dozens of private workshops with these "machines". Somewhere on these thread I had commented that my "second favourite TV program" is the American "Kings of Restoration" about a family run restoration business in Last Weggas (a town in America ) The machinery they have is "routine stuff' - like sand blasters and spray paint and easy access to a nearby shop that does water jet cutting of metal. This is stuff for which I have never found a shop in Bangalore. Most Bangalore workshops run on 1920s tech. Arc welding machines, drill, lathe, Acetylene gas welding and that's it. There is no commercial establishment to have a high tolerance thing to be made., No commercial 3D printing place. This is Bangalore the much touted Aerospace capital of India.

Any machine needed for making a phoren jet will have to be installed in private company workshops that will move local tech up by 80 years. The real meaning of "developing country" and the gulf with an industrialized nation is difficult to comprehend until we see that a global aerospace "giant" - HAL is hobbled by stuff that it should not be hobbled by.

[Indranil]

You wrote a wonderful post and raised valid points. I commend and respect you for bringing facts and figures to the table. It is becoming such a rarity, that it is refreshing. I agree with some parts of your post and disagree with others. I will reply tomorrow.