Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

[GShankar]

There are charges for cancelling railway reservations.

Do not underestimate TDP or AIDMK. Even DMK had large money. There are godowns full of cash for all these parties and they all will be looking for ways to save it.

Declare fat bonuses to entire armies of cadres.
Sent them out to buy, gold, silver, for e.g.
And then.... "hey, folks, shouldn't you guys be 'donating' 90% of that gold to party ?!! "
Done deal.

This was the exact scheme that was part of the plot in rajinikanth movie - Sivaji (The Boss). Very difficult to do in practice. All the money will in no time be converted into fine beverages, biriyani and cigarette.

[Suraj]

Sigh here we go again . Please stop focusing your energies on smalltime hacks dealing with 1000s of rupees . We are talking of money totaling in lakhs of crores; cool hacks that work for 1 followed by 3-5 zeros don't scale to sums with 1 follower by 8-12 zeros . None of these clever little hacks will scale to the amounts in question. Most of it will be abandoned within the banking system, which suits GoI just fine because it eliminates any liability associated with those deposits.

[JohnTitor]

^^ I think that is the most important aspect of this whole thing after the fact that there will be less money outside the economy/accounted for.

I think those with a few crores will be able to somehow launder some of it. But big fish will lose a large portion if not all of it.

[Prem]

Black money surgical strike destroys Pakistan's fake currency network
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/blac ... 06903.html

Pakistan was printing fake Indian currency at its government press in Punjab and Balochistan province. The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, Research and Analysis Wing and other intelligence agencies had exposed Pakistan government acquiring ink and paper far in excess of requirement to print Pakistani currency. Yet little was done to effectively nail Pakistan earlier, sources said."Nobody had the guts and moral courage to nail the widespread fake Indian currency racket since the abyss of corruption was very deep. PM Modi has taken the bull by the horns and by demonetizing big currency notes all anti-India forces lose,'' Vikram Singh, former Director General of Uttar Pradesh Police told India Today.
Intelligence agencies have documented Pakistan acquiring the printing press illegally and then purchasing ink in excess from Frankfurt in Germany and from Switzerland. Pakistan also procured currency printing paper far in excess of its requirement to print fake Indian currency. "In fact Pakistan is printing more (fake) Indian currency than its own currency,'' Dr Nirmal Singh, deputy chief minister of J&K said complimenting the prime minister for his bold decision."Our investigations revealed Habib Bank of Pakistan used branches of a local bank in Nepal along the India-Nepal border to push illegally printed currency into India. A local Indian bank also came under investigations but repeated investigations into its operations were detailed,'' sources added. This indicated the depth to which corruption had seeped."But the prime minister's move has crippled this entire nexus. The currency notes they may be holding is now not even worth its weight in paper. The hawala operations have also been crippled. Similarly now all the large denomination Indian currency separatists, terrorists and over ground workers of terrorist organizations are holding - is worthless. Their money power has been destroyed,'' sources added.The National Investigation Agency (NIA) had put the fake currency through forensic tests and in a report to the MHA submitted that: " The forensic examination of samples by Security Printing and Minting Corporation of India Limited concludes that FICN were manufactured at regular currency making machines owned by a sovereign government. And observed that some of the pivotal parameters of the FICN and Pakistan currency notes bear similar value.. the forensic evidence coupled with field investigation establishes the role of Pakistan in the manufacture of FICN.''Pakistan used a complex web of couriers, banks and even diplomatic courier to flood the Indian market with fake currency. "Pakistan realised it could not destabilise an economy India's size but it used fake currency to fund terror in Jammu and Kashmir and Indian Mujahideen modules in several parts of the country including Maharashtra and Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Bengal and Bihar. Money was routed through Nepal, Bangladesh, Dubai, Thailand and recently even parts of China. By demonetizing the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes the entire network has been destroyed,'' sources added.

[Gus]

People posting brilliant ideas like multiple deposits, ticket booking etc...all these can launder a meagre fraction.

The ones holding 100cr plus have no way out other than eating the loss. There is just no way to safely handle anything up from a Cr.

And remember, all the black money is going to be competing as well to become white. A hilarious situation really.

[kmkraoind]

ANI @ANI_news

#FLASH: In a few months, new color combination and new design 1000 Rupee notes will be released says Economic Affairs Secretary

After burning old corrupt forest, new forest will be raised. Now we may have less-leakge proof or less black money generator in the form of GST, Real Estate Bill etc, expect the new forest will have fruit trees and Tulasi vanams, instead of Ganga, Weed plants.

[Suraj]

This focus on hacks is like estimating that because the first two balls of the innings were sixes , the remaining 49.4 can end up in the stands too. Yup, GoI will sit there idly while all that happens . And every venal person will find thousands of gullible honest loyal suckers to do their bidding . And the railway reservation guy will do nothing when someone comes to buy Rs.1 lake worth of tickets to 'wherever I can get tickets for', with about a hundred guys behind him carrying money to do the same. Yup, it's all going to work out just fine for the black marketers .

[Yagnasri]

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/rs-50 ... 98140.html

FP is at it again. Just look at the tone of this report. These two notes consist of 88% of the total currency. It is not possible to give a shorter deposit period and close it. A large cash-based economy is the one which NM had inherited. It is not his creation. So giving some real lead time is a must, Further, the courts are already approached by people. Any short period may allow courts to interfere also.

[habal]

One small chink reported in whole scheme:

Non-BJP states not getting new denominations, or getting only measly amounts. So Gujarat & MH get lions share.

rest get thenga.

New denominations are getting into Mumbai markets as per reports.

KA & KL need to be a bit wary here. Also UP.

[sooraj]

Kejriwal raises eyebrows over PM in demonetisation beneficiary Paytm ad

As Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal points out in this tweet, "Paytm biggest beneficiary of PM's announcement. Next day PM appears in its ads. Whats the deal, Mr PM?"

[rahulm]

Using cute jugaadu schemes like rail tickets, bonuses, pay hikes etc can only save rats and mice. Probably, not even a rounding error in the scheme of things where the total size of the parallel economy is estimated to be upto half of th formal economy.

This gold business - current premium over market price is unsustainable. When prices come down the gold buyers will have discounted their purchase by the % drop. In effect, a commission for avoiding the tax net. Still, in the scheme of things it's not even a drop. You can't buy 100 cr or even 1 cr worth of gold just like that.

Let people scramble around trying to save their sorry arses. Serves them right.

[kumarn]

People depositing money in banks will not "recapitalize" banks! Please understand that.

Your deposits are a liability to the bank. This will force the banks to deploy this additional funds but looking at the state of the economy, it will be difficult. So interest rates will drop - good for a lot of people.

Not all of it . There's a substantial built in amount GoI is going to skin off as the penalty, and a large number of high value depositors are going to get hit with 100s or 1000s of crores penalty if the quoted claims of volume of BM cash are any indicator . That's not a deposit with a corresponding withdrawal liability and just additional capital base GoI deposits back in the banking system .

The rest while technically a liability on their books, are such large sums that they're not feasible to withdraw, and will remain as generally sticky deposits accruing interest and being deployed as loans .

Suraj ji, what happens to the cash that is burnt? How does that get accounted for? I understand from the other posters that this will be less liability for RBI. Is that money totally lost to the economy? Sorry for persistent and naive question! But I am not able to get my head around it. Hope youn can e
xplain.

[putnanja]

Report from Calcutta ...

' Kitna-gaya?' club counts

Calcutta, Nov. 9: In the season of counting, the chartbuster question is " aapka kitna gaya?" (How much have you lost)?

The runner-up: "We will somehow manage but what about politicians and bureaucrats?"

Some of the high net-worth individuals in Calcutta were today trying to gauge the loss of the other cash-club members as the impact of the demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes began to sink in.

"Who has lost how much has become the topic of discussion.... People are calling up each other and sharing estimates," a real estate player said....
...

The wads of hard cash played a key role in what is popularly known as the "parallel economy", which is driven by unaccounted-for money. Like the real economy, the parallel economy has always had a money market, with "bankers" and "customers" operating on the basis of trust and keeping the taxman at bay.

"Most people with untaxed money don't stash it in their cupboards. Politicians and officials getting caught with stacks of cash are exceptions. Many keep the money with big businessmen, who act as 'bankers'. These 'bankers' also need money to run their businesses and give returns to their customers in the range of 11 to 12 per cent a year," a businessman said.

The illegal money market - the nucleus of the parallel economy - is a nationwide phenomenon. But Calcutta, a trading hub since the British Raj days, has had such a developed market that it drew the attention of researchers who studied how the smooth flow of information resulted in near-zero default.

The future of these deposits with the "bankers" in the parallel economy was today discussed in hushed tones in parts of central Calcutta, the epicentre of the illegal money market.

"In some cases, the 'bankers' want to return the principal to their customers who don't know what to do with the money," said a source.

He, however, added the illegal money market was "so efficient" that it would soon find a way to dodge the new rules.

Although the players said they were hopeful, the possible impact of the demonetisation decision on two key segments of the Bengal economy - real estate and jewellery - was talked about through the day in the lanes and bylanes of Burrabazar.

Most of the demand for real estate and jewellery has always originated from the parallel economy, which the Prime Minister tried to demolish through the demonetisation drive.

"People with kachcha (black) money have been the main buyers of jewellery as an investment.... Today, we hardly had any buyer at our store as we decided to transact only through cheques and credit cards," said a prominent jeweller in Calcutta.

According to him, the impact of the Centre's decision would be felt for some time in the jewellery industry as demand would dry up because of the crackdown on black money.

Real estate and the high-end retail market will be the other casualties. Several developers in the city and its suburbs still insist on paying 20-30 per cent of the total value of a flat in cash. Such transactions will be difficult until a new stash is built.

"The impact will be two-fold. Transactions will come down because the cash component will be out of business temporarily, leading to slackening in demand and softening of prices," a real estate source said.
...
...
The other point of discussion was the political fallout of the move on the BJP, which has traditionally enjoyed the support of affluent traders. The opinion, however, was divided as some traders hailed the drive as a "bold move" even if it resulted in "some losses".
...

Wow, even some traders saying its good move even if they had losses?

[rahulm]

My own Whatsapp chat transcript from this morning with a conveying lawyer based in pune. Black mine creation by asking for bribes is well and alive in BJP maharashtra. Bits of chat in Marathi.

10/11/16, 07:40:25: Me: How is office ?
10/11/16, 07:40:58: lawyer: Yesterday it was too busy
10/11/16, 07:41:12: Me: Good
10/11/16, 07:41:17: lawyer: Today also
10/11/16, 07:41:25: lawyer: Our registration got cancelled
10/11/16, 07:41:36: Me: Why ?
10/11/16, 07:41:40: lawyer: that registrar was asking 10k for 2 documents
10/11/16, 07:42:01: lawyer: I was about to call anti corruption.. khup horrible bribing ahe
10/11/16, 07:42:35: Me: I know. It's sad.
10/11/16, 07:42:46: lawyer: But as our boss said agar client ready hai to why to worry
10/11/16, 07:43:32: lawyer: Really kal mala shocking hota actually 2k mhanla me tar registrar mhanto 5k per document hach bhav ahe. I said bhav ahe ???
10/11/16, 07:43:59: Me: Ouch
10/11/16, 07:44:08: lawyer: Ti mhanala mug dusrikade kara.. i said me JDR kade jatie.. tyala dhamkavun ale
10/11/16, 07:44:30: lawyer: Aj another 2 3havelis madhe BHAV kay chalalay bagnar
10/11/16, 07:44:37: lawyer: Horrible
10/11/16, 07:45:35: lawyer: Ani our doc is complete in all sense n within limitation period tari
10/11/16, 07:46:17: Me: Hmmm.
10/11/16, 07:47:02: lawyer: actually mazha personal doc asta tar me kharach complaint keli asti
10/11/16, 07:47:13: lawyer: But client la consult karava lagta
10/11/16, 07:48:25: Me: Yes true.
10/11/16, 07:48:46: lawyer: Hhmm

[Sachin]

x-posted from the "Political" thread..
---
May be you would have some pointers here (I would also post my query, if any thread is there on this money denotification exclusively). Kerala has numerous Cooperative "Banks" which are actually outside the ambit of RBI. The management of these "banks" are all by the local politicians, mainly the commies. I know there is an order that these "banks" cannot transact on the 500,1000 notes. But don't know how this can be enforced. It is has been an open secret that this cooperative banks have been the most favoured banks of all the hawala dealers, and black marketeers in KL.

The scenario I have in mind is the hawala dealers and people who have black money, depositing these into accounts held at Co.Op banks. Assume that the Co.Op bank management is actively encouraging this. No documentation is taken. Now these co.op banks do not have "cash chests", so they cannot deal with the new notes. These folks would have to approach nationalised banks, surrender their old notes and get the new ones. But they can always say that these 500,1000 notes were there with them (spread across their customer base) already. By now, chances of identifying whether 500,1000 came in as new deposit, or it was part of an existing deposit would be lost. When a management friendly hawala dealer comes in, the co-op bank can also take the 500,1000 notes from him and give him the same value of money with lesser denomination notes (which these "banks" would have to a limited quantity).

[Suraj]

It's money that's gone out of circulation and no longer competes with white money for goods and services . Look at it this way - when you sought to buy anything from a kg of dal to a house , someone with black money has been able to front run you and buy it lower, and sell it to you for more, behind the scenes . They've been doing it repeatedly in all kinds of things , essentiallly siphoning off white money into black . RBI has to keep making up for the 'leakage' by printing more . This new money then competed with the growing volume of black money working behind the scenes . The end result has been chronic inflation (basically money feeding into the black market) and shock price rise of certain items regularly. If say 30% of that is burned, that's a few lakhs crores of speculative cash not competing with your white money .

[putnanja]

Temple twist

Hundi collection at the Tirupati temple, usually dominated by Rs 10 notes and coins, saw a flood of Rs 500 and Rs1,000 notes on Wednesday.
...

[pankajs]

Ok ... here it is. After a while, say 5 years, you will NOT be able to do any high valued transaction in cash.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/jucQ9N ... onomy.html
Mann ki baat: Modi emphasises need for digital payments

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Comi ... 342663.cms
Coming soon, curbs on use of cash for high-value deals: Revenue secy

"More such measures will come, what will be the cut-off we don't know," Adhia said when asked whether the government was planning to impose restrictions on cash deposits of over Rs 3 lakh. The SC-appointed special investigation team (SIT) had recommended that curbs be imposed on cash deposits+ of over Rs 3 lakh. The limit is aimed to ensure that transactions are made using credit or debit cards, cheques or drafts which can be tracked.

[Yayavar]

so jet-li, the eternal brf bugbear, did something good

[kvraghav]

The jewellery shops have to report sales every week. Wonder how they are managing to split bills and back date the bills? Have tweeted PM sir to do something for the gold. May be bring in a rule that gold can only be sold to Govt outlets after this initial rush. Push all the hoarders to one small bin and burn the bin.

[Kati]

Here is one scheme reported by a Kolkata-based newspaper which apparently is making rounds.

Due to PM-JDY a lot of poor rural folks have opened new bank accounts with very little balance most
of the time. Political crooks are getting hold of these poor folks, sometimes in connivance with local bank officials. Then, suppose one fat cat wants to launder 20 lakhs, he gets hold of 10 people, distributes 2 lakhs in each person's account, and then asks them to keep 5% as commission, and get the rest out soon in new banknotes. The only downside is - since the whole thing runs in word of mouth, someone later may refuse to handover the 95% black money as white. ... Apparently, in rural Bengal, TMC's henchmen are scouting for JDY account holders and offering 5% commission. They are offering another 1 to 2% to bank officials too for smooth process.

[kapilrdave]

I have a slightly different take on this matter....

We people fear that what if the hoarders find 1000s of bank a/c holders to deposit their BM? The counter to that fear is being given that government will chase down the original source down in due time so it's not happening OR is dangerous.

My take is, what if govt WANTS the hoarders to to distribute their money into poorer people? Remember NM's election promise of 15 lakhs in to accounts?

The advantages of this are as follows....

1. No poor is going to do this for the hoarders for free. They will get their due cut over and above the 30% tax limit. Makes them richer. This reduces the economical inequality greatly. I know it sounds like a socialist philosophy (which I'm not), but it's necessary to negate the bad effects of capitalism.

2. The stocked BM was not contributing to the economy as much as it should have. It was just left unused and unproductive. On the other hand, it possessed huge power to manipulate the economy and drive the inflation at will. Now that the BM is distributed to mangoes, it will be used into productive activities.

3. Although this drastic step is admired by everyone, this will definitely have an adverse effect on the GDP if not handled well. The Govt doesn't want to collapse a lot of small to mid scale legal businesses run mainly by black money. Bringing them into the main economy is all fine, but you just don't want them to choke. Giving this safe passage of saving about 50% of their cash by distributing to many people is important. Businesses will learn their lesson in a big way by losing 50% money and hopefully do it white in future.

4. The obvious political advantage of giving free money to poor!

Modi has outsmarted everyone to this date. He has always been ahead in thinking. So I'm just trying to have a peek into his mind .

JMTC and all that.

[pankajs]

Bank account with near ZERO balance suddenly getting 2 lakh will trigger alert. No respite for those who think they can get away by using JDY. 2.5 lahk limit is for suckers.

[Suraj]

When the money's in the bank, the bank gains control over what it can do with it, and have easily analytical visibility into deposit patterns. GoI can easily flag patterns of abnormal high value deposits into subsets of PMJDY accounts and send the ED personnel over . No poor guys going to go for 5% on the behalf of the rich fatkat .

In the end all these are just creative ways for people with hidden BM to get themselves caught . More people involved - more points of failure .

To anyone coming up with these ideas, please do this. Say you're Corruptuddin bin BMullah . You have 3000cr to whitewash . Break it down into how many notes it will be . Calculate time to count it and split it into small enough chunks . Count time to find the thousands of honest suckers you're going to ask to launder this . Count the time to organize and disburse all this safely to thousands of people . Count the time for them to go deposit it . Count the time to record their information to reach them later. Count the time for all the screwups that will happen . And oh yes bank hours are fixed and you have to plan to send all these people to various banks on time such that 1000 people don't suddenly show up at one bank with exactly same amount each etc . And of course time for them to eat, sleep, visit pakistan and wipe their mush etc . See what I'm getting at ? Quantify the time . Now multiply that by hundreds of thousands of other people doing the same with their money . Let us know your calculation results . PS : you have 50 days, not all of which are bank working days .

[kapilrdave]

Bank account with near ZERO balance suddenly getting 2 lakh will trigger alert. No respite for those who think they can get away by using JDY. 2.5 lahk limit is for suckers.

What I'm trying to say is that govt "might" turn a blind eye to these small transactions for the reasons I've mentioned above.

[kvraghav]

Gold might become parallel currency now. Somehow, we have to curb this. May be make id proof mandatory for all gold purchases or put 15% sales tax.

[pankajs]

I just realized that no matter what happens the gain is 100% of the BM some directly and some indirectly. That is the impact of the currency swap. Future deterrence is the malai on the top.

Say by the end of this window BM hoarders are able to launder 70% and take 30% loss. That successful laundered 70% is out in the open under the GOI gaze and that is a net gain of 70% direct to the banking system. The loss of 30% BM is an indirect gain to the GOI/RBI now that 30% of its liabilities have vanished. So the net gain to formal Indian economy in total is 100% anyway just my switching the currency.

I do not think more than 20% can be laundered successfully but we will come to know the final score by March 2017.

[JayS]

I have a slightly different take on this matter....

We people fear that what if the hoarders find 1000s of bank a/c holders to deposit their BM? The counter to that fear is being given that government will chase down the original source down in due time so it's not happening OR is dangerous.

My take is, what if govt WANTS the hoarders to to distribute their money into poorer people? Remember NM's election promise of 15 lakhs in to accounts?

The advantages of this are as follows....

1. No poor is going to do this for the hoarders for free. They will get their due cut over and above the 30% tax limit. Makes them richer. This reduces the economical inequality greatly. I know it sounds like a socialist philosophy (which I'm not), but it's necessary to negate the bad effects of capitalism.

2. The stocked BM was not contributing to the economy as much as it should have. It was just left unused and unproductive. On the other hand, it possessed huge power to manipulate the economy and drive the inflation at will. Now that the BM is distributed to mangoes, it will be used into productive activities.

3. Although this drastic step is admired by everyone, this will definitely have an adverse effect on the GDP if not handled well. The Govt doesn't want to collapse a lot of small to mid scale legal businesses run mainly by black money. Bringing them into the main economy is all fine, but you just don't want them to choke. Giving this safe passage of saving about 50% of their cash by distributing to many people is important. Businesses will learn their lesson in a big way by losing 50% money and hopefully do it white in future.

4. The obvious political advantage of giving free money to poor!

Modi has outsmarted everyone to this date. He has always been ahead in thinking. So I'm just trying to have a peek into his mind .

JMTC and all that.

+1

Even if this scheme causes great pain in the a$$ for BM holders to manage their money, still its something achieved and I am happy about it.

But from the look of it, some of the money which was 1. seating idle doing no contribution to real economy. 2. And was just increasing inflation through price bubble in various sectors, will come to GOI as tax, to small folks as commission who help convert the currency, comes as white for those who try to salvage it in their IT return. On top of it, these cheap ways of Railway tickets or loaning, laundering will work only for small/medium folks. For the big fishes, they will have no other way but to simply burn it or face the music from GOI. Yes some big fishes might escape, but the real dent is that the power they had with the money is significantly eroded now.

Apart from that, now on people will always fear to keep large stash of cash with them. Its jinxed forever.

Also the effect it has on Paki nexus of fake currency and Terror funding is beyond imagination.

All in all, Modi has outthought and outdid everyone in this game. And no one is sure what will come next.

I personally think, the big denominations will go soon enough, moment Modi feels confident about the infrastructure to deploy full scale digital economy, he could easily scrap these notes and make all transactions above a certain limit through digital transaction only.

Making 2000 Rs note was a master-stroke. That's kept most of the people clueless.

I hear next blow in offing is on the GOLD. Another rumour is imposition of limit on amount of cash that could be hold by someone.

[pankajs]

News18 ✔ @CNNnews18
#UPDATE: Banks are refusing to exchange notes without ID Proof #IndiaFightsCorruption LIVE: http://www.news18.com/news/india/demone ... 10412.html …
----->
I was under the impression that for up to 2000 it wouldn't ask for ID proof.

[Schmidt]

If there is a significant drop in property valuations ( 30-40% ) , will banks require a top up in the security amount paid to cover the gap i mortgage loans extended

This is a common practice in US / Singapore etc

Or do the banks here take a more lenient view ?

[pankajs]

http://www.firstpost.com/business/curre ... 95312.html

11:21 (IST)
Exchange is possible

Old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes worth Rs 4,000 or below can be exchanged for any denomination having legal tender, i.e Rs 100, Rs 50 etc. But you gave to submit a requisition slip with proof of identity and along with the notes to be exchanged.

11:17 (IST)
For depositing cash

Old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes can be deposited into their bank accounts and/or exchanged. There will not be any limit on the quantity or value. However, if your account is not Know Your Customer (KYC) norms compliant, the maximum value is Rs 50,000.

Customers can withdraw Rs 4000 from ATM’s & Rs 10000 from bank counter and can deposit any amount: Arundhati Bhattacharya (MD, SBI) pic.twitter.com/GM3Qm94d7Q
— ANI (@ANI_news) November 10, 2016

[MohdKav]

When the money's in the bank, the bank gains control over what it can do with it, and have easily analytical visibility into deposit patterns. GoI can easily flag patterns of abnormal high value deposits into subsets of PMJDY accounts and send the ED personnel over . No poor guys going to go for 5% on the behalf of the rich fatkat .

In the end all these are just creative ways for people with hidden BM to get themselves caught . More people involved - more points of failure .

To anyone coming up with these ideas, please do this. Say you're Corruptuddin bin BMullah . You have 3000cr to whitewash . Break it down into how many notes it will be . Calculate time to count it and split it into small enough chunks . Count time to find the thousands of honest suckers you're going to ask to launder this . Count the time to organize and disburse all this safely to thousands of people . Count the time for them to go deposit it . Count the time to record their information to reach them later. Count the time for all the screwups that will happen . And oh yes bank hours are fixed and you have to plan to send all these people to various banks on time such that 1000 people don't suddenly show up at one bank with exactly same amount each etc . And of course time for them to eat, sleep, visit pakistan and wipe their mush etc . See what I'm getting at ? Quantify the time . Now multiply that by hundreds of thousands of other people doing the same with their money . Let us know your calculation results . PS : you have 50 days, not all of which are bank working days .

You are forgetting one important part, IT department simply doesnt have the human resource.

[Suraj]

Bank account with near ZERO balance suddenly getting 2 lakh will trigger alert. No respite for those who think they can get away by using JDY. 2.5 lahk limit is for suckers.

What I'm trying to say is that govt "might" turn a blind eye to these small transactions for the reasons I've mentioned above.

And what others are trying to tell you is that your efforts to slice the cheese thinner is directly at odds with the fact that you have a HUGE piece of cheese to slice . There's very little time and the more time you spend trying to break it down into smaller undetectable bits, the more you're setting yourself behind as your management complexity increases exponentially .

[Suraj]

You are forgetting one important part, IT department simply doesnt have the human resource.

So ? Once the money is in the bank, government controls you. They can suspend the account pending review, freeze accounts, anything they want. They set the timelines too . Taxman can take his time to get to the case, and until then the fatkat is short all the money he deposited, while the money itself is now within the banking sector being used to generate loan revenue .

[JayS]

News18 ✔ @CNNnews18
#UPDATE: Banks are refusing to exchange notes without ID Proof #IndiaFightsCorruption LIVE: http://www.news18.com/news/india/demone ... 10412.html …
----->
I was under the impression that for up to 2000 it wouldn't ask for ID proof.

One with big cash and influence could have simply made 00s or 000s of people run around in various banks/branches in a city to convert 2000 each multiple times for till 30th Dec for some commission and could have recovered a large chunk of his BM.

1000 persons converting 10x2000 everyday for 50days = 100,00,00,000

A big politician could easily mobilise cadre to get 1000s of Cr of cash in such manner for some commission.

So the ID.

Just saying..

[chandrasekaran]

I don't think prosecution is Modi's intent. Its simply impossible given the numbers involved. He would be quite happy and content with #1. The money coming into the banking system, which by itself is HUGE
#2. Catch the biggest top 10 fishes (I am sure 7-8 will belong to Congoons + their coitre) and keep them tied down till atleast 2019.

[Yagnasri]

No such top up/ additional security requirement is there here for home loans. For loan against property as of today, no such system is there to seek additional security. Banks regularly fund 80% of the value only in any home loan. So 20% buffer is already there.

[Rishi Verma]

How the Plan was kept a Secret

Main points:
Plan cooking for six months

Limited ppl in the know (most ministers not included)

On day of announcement a meeting of ministers was called, agenda was India-Japan nuclear deal

No mobiles in meeting was announced earlier, just for this purpose

Ministers sat in meeting from 6:30pm till 9:00 pm, ministers were "required" to remain in the room during the speech (modi knows ministers can't be trusted)

After the TV speech modi was in further meetings until midnight

[kvraghav]

Will the JDY account holders loose their BPL status if they deposit 1lakh?

[pankajs]

Don't think so. BPL status is based on more than one criteria. And 1 lakh saving for a 50 year old after working for 35 years is not much.