Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

[Pratyush]

True, but they will have toe be sure the they will not be cough out in this situation again. Can they be sure that post 2019, a Modi govt won't discontinue old notes with 1 week notice. Or 50 day notice.

Ultimately the behaviour of these parasites has to change. I am not sure how to bring it about from the central level as most of them are at the state level.

[shiv]

TOI reporting that in UP about 18,000 zero balance JDY accounts suddenly have 49,000 which is near the max deposit of 50k allowed without PAN. The poor guys were given 500Rs "bakshish".

Still only 90 crores And all white now to be studied in slow motion when the excitement is over

[Sanju]

My FIL sold his property in August asking for all white and selling it at the Govt. rate. When the buyer said I don't have the money all in white, He said give it to me when you have it. He could have of-course sold it partly in black and made more money. But then after serving the Army for 30 years as a Doc in AMC he is still supporting his country and doing the right thing.

I hear what the businessmen here are saying. I empathize with you that yes it is a hard step for you. I can only say that you need to have some faith in Modi, who I am sure has gamed it and the sky will come falling down on the corrupt officials. You are all way better off than the Chinese people who lost their livelihood and their property. No consolation but perspective.....for the larger good of the country people will have to go through hardship.

[shiv]

True, but they will have toe be sure the they will not be cough out in this situation again. Can they be sure that post 2019, a Modi govt won't discontinue old notes with 1 week notice. Or 50 day notice.

Ultimately the behaviour of these parasites has to change. I am not sure how to bring it about from the central level as most of them are at the state level.

I really think the next step should be to limit the transport of undeclared cash more than 5 lakhs. Anything more gets confiscated (if caught of course)

[kvraghav]

Remove their BPL status and they will sqeal the name of the source.

[rahulm]

There is a report in Uttar Pradesh Jagran (never heard of'it) dated 27 October (pre announcement ) that

Kala dhan bahar nikaal ne ko Kendra sarkar kar rahi tayyari
Wapas ho saqte hain paanch so aur ek,hazaar rupee ke note.

I have a copy of the article.

In hind sight they were right.

[habal]

Has anybody seen/got the new ₹500 note. anybody knows somebody who has ?

[Gus]

http://www.dinamalar.com/news_detail.asp?id=1647258
post offices to be open on sat and sunday

http://www.dinamalar.com/news_detail.asp?id=1647269
600 plus jewelers in major cities sent notice on stock

[ManSingh]

True, but they will have toe be sure the they will not be cough out in this situation again. Can they be sure that post 2019, a Modi govt won't discontinue old notes with 1 week notice. Or 50 day notice.

Ultimately the behaviour of these parasites has to change. I am not sure how to bring it about from the central level as most of them are at the state level.

I really think the next step should be to limit the transport of undeclared cash more than 5 lakhs. Anything more gets confiscated (if caught of course)

Yes, something like civil forfeiture act and 50% of seizure goes to seizing police party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_for ... ted_States

[shiv]

Coud Suraj or some finance whiz kid please explain something to me.

Assume that the total amount of money in circulation is Rs 1000

Of this Rs 1000, Rs 300 (30%) is in small notes of Rs 100 and less
Rs 700 were in high denomination notes.

That means in one fell swoop the govt has removed 70% of all cash in circulation.

Now here comes another assumption. I have states that Rs 700 was in hi denimonation notes of Rs 500/1000

Assume that 50% of that was in Black and the rest 50% - i.e Rs 350 was in white and in circulation

So that means that the government initially has to exchange only the Rs 350 that is in circulation with aam junta. The other Rs 350 that is stashed away in black may or may not come back into circulation

• Some of that Rs 350 (i.e 35% of all money) will return to circulation by declaration of black money
• Some will return via hawala channels/fraud like filling thousands of zero accounts with Rs 49,999
• Some will get thrown into temple hundis
• Some will get converted to gold - but will anyway manifest as "return to circulation" as while money
• Some will be burnt of destroyed

My question is as follows:

I assume the government has an idea of how many Rupees were in circulation based on how much they have printed. In an ideal world the value of new notes issues should ultimately equal the exact value of all the old Rs 500/1000 notes. But this will not happen because some notes (fake/stashed/undeclared) will be lost forever. But the value of the new money that the government is introducing should be LESS than the total value of the demonetized currency. The amount by which it is LESS should indicate the total value of the black economy. Is this correct?

Secondly, if by chance the total value of new notes issues is equal to or greater than the value of the demonetized cash, would it not mean that the economy has been fluffed up an unexpectedly great deal by fake currency?

Sorry if the question is too obscure and unclear to answer...

[Rahul M]

Have the gold prices doubled now? My sil said they are asking 50k for 10gms. The present price of gold is down by 10% to $1230 here.

buy with white money at normal rate. (I did so yesterday)

or buy with black money at inflated rate.

[komal]

Why are authorities forcing temples to seal their hundi boxes? What is wrong if BM is donated to a good cause rather than being burned?

[Rishi Verma]

Can't believe kejri ever went to IIT or he ever was a tax man. He is saying black money not returned will be "lost", he also saying modi had told his "friends" ahead of time.

Before my BP went high i read the comments section and some guy wrote "kejriwal is a national disgrace". And my bp stabilized.

[Pratyush]

My FIL sold his property in SNIP ..............

Please pay my regards to your FIL. We need more unbending men like him.

[Gus]

shiv - what do you mean by value? the 'new money' is just a denomination. It's value keeps changing as per its purchase power / exchange rate, no?

All I understand is removing of BM from circulation changes the value of the rupee, but I am not sure how we can compare value of money before and now. Different markets may offer new different values to the rupee?

[Sanju]

Thanks Pratyush..will do.

[Rishi Verma]

Went to my Corporation Bank, as predicted the rush was 1/2 as bad as yesterday. More people depositing than withdrawing. I did a token widrawal to take a look at 2000 note.

I noticed that deposit clerks receiving money are not looking for FICN, they just take form and check ID and stash the notes in the drawer.

Then the trail of who deposited fake currency is gone.

[Murugan]

I managed to use axis atm which was opened up at 10 pm after the armored vehicle bought in new cash. Guard told me it was worth 1.5 lakh and will last for 2 hrs max since everyone was using 2 cards. The only complain by most of the people was lack of 100 rs notes. 2000 rs notes are not useful for conducting daily purchase and sales.

Best way is to go to bank branch in person or send someone with bearer cheque and withdraw money from bank. Daily limit is Rs 10,000 and Weekly 20,000=00 over and above Rs 2000=00 from atm. Banks are giving in bundles of 10, 20, 50 and 100. Personal experience

[habal]

That means in one fell swoop the govt has removed 70% of all cash in circulation.

I think this is like imposing a financial emergency on the country under guise of fighting black money.

86% of monetary transactions was under 500/1000.

And the new 500 is nowhere to be seen. Although there are reports it was released along with 2000, the new 500 is not available even with RBI yet.

And my speculation is that the new 500 will not be available in near future also.

New 1000 note as per MEA secretary will be released in 3 months.

This means that from now to 3 months ahead, ATMs will carry only 100 Rupee notes since they mainly Diebold machines and are not calibrated or programmed to dispense 2000 notes without Diebold themselves updating software on all their ATM machines, now this is an extensive exercise and can last around 6 months.

In the meanwhile, reports are the 2000 is only temporary and will be stopped or withdrawn inside 3 months (probably when 1000 is relaunched).

This clearly means there is no big currency notes in foreseeable future.

[SRoy]

The banks are doing a poor job of handling the situation.

Yesterday went out with tasks in hand.

1. Request a PIN for my credit card as I was not getting through the phone banking system. HDFC
2. Request closure of my old salary account. HSBC

At HDFC told to stand in the queue. The explanation that I just need to lodge a request for PIN with the personal banking staff after they verify my identity. The fat cow manning the queue did not budge. So, gave her a piece of my mind, explained her what does the term working girl means in derogatory way amidst loud cheering from the crowd. I left.

At HSBC similar scene. Similar nonsense by one low level employee. Fortunately, the branch manager was out to stretch his legs. Told him my purpose. He apologized profusely and ushered my in. He gave a tongue lashing to the minion in front of me. Anyway done in 10 minutes and came out.

My observations ....

There are moneybags that are probably seeing a bank for the first time. The chutzpah need to seen to be believed. They think the banks solely exists to handle their ill-gotten wealth. In fact the manager at HSBC coolly asked him to take a hike if he can't bear to stand in the queue. HSBC being a premium bank had the shortest queue.

All ATM's were dry.

Most bank's have no idea how to handle this situation.

I believe the following should have been done.

1. Separate timings for banks own customers and lay mob out just for note exchange.
2. For own customers segregate the depositors and exchangers.
3. One dedicated desk, maybe manned by one person, to handle other banking services.

Some banks are separating own customers from others and their ATM's have stopped serving other than own customers.

[Murugan]

New Rs. 500=00 is now appearing

[habal]

All ATM's were dry.

that is normal. How long do you think people withdrawing 10K (today) or 4K yesterday in 100 rupee notes will allow ATM to remain operational.

ATM can load only 1.5-2 lakh rupees in 100 notes, total loading capacity of most ATMs is 12 lakhs and remaining was 500/1000 rupee notes.

those 500/1000 rupee slots cannot be filled by 100 notes. Only 100 rupee slots can be filled by 100.

[Murugan]

Security feature - Rs 2000=00 observed under ultraviolet light

[ShauryaT]

For folks who have the means will find the ways and these ways are being found. This BM by and large hard earned will not be handed over to GoI. On the ground here, the consensus of the business community is quite clear on that matter. Even if it costs an hair cut of 40-50% such an option would be preferable to dealing with the GoI.

After such a major jolt to the public at large, what we need is for the IT folks to now turn their gaze towards every politician, bureaucrat, govt employees central, state and local targeted within this community on those who have fleeced the Indian public. Only such an act to attack the corrupt that is from the ground up will go towards some pacification that Modi is indeed thinking straight on the issue.

[ShauryaT]

I really think the next step should be to limit the transport of undeclared cash more than 5 lakhs. Anything more gets confiscated (if caught of course)

Shiv ji: What next? Go into people's houses to check how much cash sitting there? Why does the govt not exclusively target the bribe takers for a year and flush out most of the fleecers and then turn its gaze on the public.

[chetak]

S Gurumurthy ‏@sgurumurthy Nov 10

3 celebrated pvt banks seem to have colluded with a corp buccaneer & a political party to give new notes for old for 100+ cr in Delhi n Bby

803 retweets 353 likes

[nandakumar]

Coud Suraj or some finance whiz kid please explain something to me.

Assume that the total amount of money in circulation is Rs 1000

Of this Rs 1000, Rs 300 (30%) is in small notes of Rs 100 and less
Rs 700 were in high denomination notes.

That means in one fell swoop the govt has removed 70% of all cash in circulation.

Now here comes another assumption. I have states that Rs 700 was in hi denimonation notes of Rs 500/1000

Assume that 50% of that was in Black and the rest 50% - i.e Rs 350 was in white and in circulation

So that means that the government initially has to exchange only the Rs 350 that is in circulation with aam junta. The other Rs 350 that is stashed away in black may or may not come back into circulation

• Some of that Rs 350 (i.e 35% of all money) will return to circulation by declaration of black money
• Some will return via hawala channels/fraud like filling thousands of zero accounts with Rs 49,999
• Some will get thrown into temple hundis
• Some will get converted to gold - but will anyway manifest as "return to circulation" as while money
• Some will be burnt of destroyed

My question is as follows:

I assume the government has an idea of how many Rupees were in circulation based on how much they have printed. In an ideal world the value of new notes issues should ultimately equal the exact value of all the old Rs 500/1000 notes. But this will not happen because some notes (fake/stashed/undeclared) will be lost forever. But the value of the new money that the government is introducing should be LESS than the total value of the demonetized currency. The amount by which it is LESS should indicate the total value of the black economy. Is this correct?

Secondly, if by chance the total value of new notes issues is equal to or greater than the value of the demonetized cash, would it not mean that the economy has been fluffed up an unexpectedly great deal by fake currency?

Sorry if the question is too obscure and unclear to answer...

But the value of the new money that the government is introducing should be LESS than the total value of the demonetized currency. The amount by which it is LESS should indicate the total value of the black economy. Is this correct?
Yes thats correct.
Secondly, if by chance the total value of new notes issues is equal to or greater than the value of the demonetized cash, would it not mean that the economy has been fluffed up an unexpectedly great deal by fake currency?
Should the notes exchanged plus currency deposited in the bank accounts exceed the high denomination of notes in circulation prior to demonetisation then yes it is fair to say that the difference can only be explained by the deposit of fake currency notes. Of course one would have to make a minor technical adjustment. Deposits do tend to grow in the normal course which is currently running at 9 to 10% per annum. Since monies can be deposited till December 31st, we may to make roughly a 1.5% adjustment (10%*2/12to the incremental deposits in the banking system.

[disha]

After such a major jolt to the public at large, what we need is for the IT folks to now turn their gaze towards every politician, bureaucrat, govt employees central, state and local targeted within this community on those who have fleeced the Indian public. Only such an act to attack the corrupt that is from the ground up will go towards some pacification that Modi is indeed thinking straight on the issue.

KK Kejriwal is already screaming. Mamta screamed., Maya screamed and others too. Looks like the surgical strike by Modi made Kejru napunsak!

[abhischekcc]

Let's say the Indian economy is $20 trillion overground and 50% of that is underground, IOW $10 trillion. Total is $30 trillion.

As a consequence of demonetisation, half of underground economy is wiped out leaving $5 trillion. The other $5 trillion becomes over ground. So total economy is now NOMINALLY $25 trillion. Using this number, Modi will go to town saying "wah wah. India grew at 20% after the demonetisation."

All the salaried class (whose tax is cut as TDS, and who, as a consequence think they are honest - while taking 25% of their salary as non-taxable reimbursements) will go bonkers at Modi and think he is the best PM ever.

Meanwhile, actual economy goes down by a sixth or 17%. People loss jobs and families are ruined, and this is scenario that 2019 will be fought. Do you think Hindu Nationalist movement can take another 10 years of secular rule? It is very much possible for anti Hindu and anti National forces to exploit the genuine anger Modi has ended up creating.

For the record, the small time businessmen and the labour class far outnumber the IT vity types.

[Suraj]

abhischekcc: This is neither the politics nor strawman ideas thread.

[abhischekcc]

How do you distinguish between demonetisation and politics?

[habal]

the anvil falls on senior citizens and old and infirm who are single and lonely. How in the world will these people exchange their notes after standing in queue.

no business is taking place in shops as only bangalore has card transaction for groceries. The rest of India is in deep doodoo and shops are empty because you can only get goods worth 2000 or 100. Nobody has change to dispense change for 2000 notes.

[kmkraoind]

Note change hits Maoists - Thehansindia

Posting the article full for sake of preservation.

Hyderabad: Close on the heels of Andhra-Orissa border encounter setback in which they lost their 27 comrades, the CPI-Maoists seems to be facing yet another colossal challenge with the scrapping of high-value notes.

Though the demonetisation of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes move was aimed at curbing unaccounted cash or black money circulating in the country’s economy, invariably it’s going to affect the Left-Wing Extremism (LWE) financing.

Based on the fact that ultras store the cash in the denominations of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes in dumps to use it for their needs, it’s going to be a herculean task for them to swap the devalued notes with the new currency issued by the government before December 30, the last day for the exchange of notes, especially in view of ongoing counterinsurgency activities of the police in the Maoist heartland of the Dandakaranya.

It may be noted here that according to the Ministry of State for Home Affairs, the CPI-Maoists have been collecting more than Rs 140 crore annually from a variety of sources, allegedly extorting the contractors and industrialists whose establishments are in forest region.

Going by the past instances, the Maoists store large sums of money in dumps packed in polythene covers and boxes made of non-corrosive metals.

Obviously, the cash they hide will be of high value. “The whereabouts of the dumps is only known to the elite group of leaders.

Though the top leaders maintain the secrecy of the location of the dumps, they share the information in bits and pieces to their most-trusted lieutenants.

If one person knows the forest region, the other one knows the area but not the pin-point location,” a senior police official who involved in tracing of a dump said.

Especially against the backdrop of intensified combing operations by Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Telangana police in the face of AOB encounter, the banned outfit may find it difficult even to reach their dumps, he said.

They invariably have to depend on their frontal organisations, couriers, sympathisers and village-level leaders in remote areas, he added.

“We are keeping a close vigil on people living in forest fringe villages by conducting vehicle checks. The ultras may not be in a hurry but they certainly come out with a strategy to exchange the high-valued notes.

However, it may not be that easy to exchange all the cash they have with them at a time when people living in mainstream are finding it difficult to fulfill the formalities such as bank account, Aadhaar and PAN cards,” an IPS officer from East Godavari district who is in-charge of counterinsurgency activities, told The Hans India, on condition of anonymity.

The police sources further add that the cash in dumps that runs into crores is usually used to procure arms and ammunition, and not for their daily needs such as provisions.

[pankajs]

There are two issues with ABCC's scenario.

1. The business that thinks it will not be able to operate as white will disappear but the demand will NOT disappear. Someone else will get that demand or perhaps open a new business to meet that demand. E.g Think of a jeweler or builder who doesn't think he can operate under the new regime but will the demand of jewelery or house disappear? It will go to the next guy. However there will be some disruption while both business men and mangos make adjustment under the new regime. In some business the adjustment will be near instantaneous (Chaiwalla/Panwalla/etc) while in some it will be a bit stretched out (RE).

2. BM Wealth as opposed to BM income is usually dead money as far as economy is concerned e.g. what is parked outside the country. Every years BM income adds to that dead money. Forget about the accumulated dead money for now but going forward less money will be added to that dead money pool and more will keep circulating within the economy doing more in the economy. That is a net positive for the economy and will add to growth going forward.

There is going to be disruption in the near-term but will add *real* growth to the economy in the longer-term.

[manjgu]

i think ATM running dry is a shame...atleast ATM connected with banks should run 24*7. banks only open during office hrs..ATM is a 24*7 bank

[nirav]

No "businessman" in his right mind will stop doing business because he faces massive impediment in continuing his all cash business.

Rokda as we've know till now won't be the same anymore.

[Sicanta]

the anvil falls on senior citizens and old and infirm who are single and lonely. How in the world will these people exchange their notes after standing in queue.

no business is taking place in shops as only bangalore has card transaction for groceries. The rest of India is in deep doodoo and shops are empty because you can only get goods worth 2000 or 100. Nobody has change to dispense change for 2000 notes.

Go to any bank or atm. Senior citizens are being given privileged positions in the queue, while others wait for their turn, they are happy discussing the pros and cons of the move.

[JayS]

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39
From what is happening in small towns and rural areas. it seems that MoF made no contingency plan for denomination for the last 2 1/2 years

Didn't the printing of Rs 100 notes start 6 months before. Looks like it wasn't sufficient to cover the demand.

Nashik Press printed 30000Cr worth of faulty notes of 100 denomination. All burnt this January. That might have affected the situation. not sure if GOI took care of that short fall. Incredible incompetence, no one noticed the silver thread is missing from the paper until the notes were sent out to banks.

[manjgu]

they could not have printed 500 and 1000 notes as the word would have got out that old notes are going kaput.. everyone knew about new 2000 note

[JayS]

Just to share my personal experience ...

A few years back we bought a small flat in Kolkata, and after the day we made the last installment to the promoter we
suddenly get a letter from the IT dept demanding to prove that all transactions were done legally. So we had to rush with
all bank passbooks, receipts, etc. Within half an hours, after scanning our papers, the IT Dept let us go....

I guess for much higher priced flats BM works.....

This is pretty rare actually. Probably the promoter got audited and hence the customers.

BM is more for second sales, land (as opposed to flat) sales and transactions where a loan is not taken.

In many cities even fresh buy with home loan is asked BM by builders. Its double whammy for middle class since this reduces on-paper price of flat and banks give 80-85% loan of this on-paper amount, not the actual paid price. So effectively down-payment is increased for the buyer.