Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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chetak
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

tsarkar wrote:Not related, but the termites are emerging

http://www.oneindia.com/india/taxman-bi ... 62237.html
New Delhi, Nov 15: The Income Tax department has slapped a penalty of Rs.57 crore on Congress leader and senior advocate Abhishek Manu Singhvi after he was unable to furnish documentary proof to back his claim of expenses. The department has rejected Singhvi's claim that a termite attack on the premises of his chartered accountant destroyed all records, said reports.

The department has also raised doubts over the advocate's claim that he purchased laptops worth Rs 5 crore for his staff, which entitled him to 30 per cent depreciation.

The Income Tax department and the Commission, had earlier, added a sum over his declared professional income of Rs. 91.95 crore over three years between 2010-11 to 2012-13 and slapped a penalty. The order was then stayed by the Rajasthan Court, said reports.

The commission has also contended Singhvi's claim that he spent Rs 35.98 crore on purchase of solar panels for his company, Rishab Enterprises. According to reports, the Jodhpur Income Tax Commissioner also came across cash ranging between Rs.7 crore to Rs. 32 crore in Singhvi's account. The Congress leader said that it was meant to pay fees of his legal assitants. Singhvi has reportedly alleged that he was being trapped in a "cat and mouse game" and argued that the Commission did not have the jurisdiction to impose penalty on him
An indication how crooked the media is can be gauged by the fact that none of the larger media companies are publishing this news.

this is also the same ahole who claimed to the IT dept that termites ate away receipts worth many tens of crores and so he was unable to produce receipts.

I doubt very much whether termites can survive such a rich diet. :evil:


all these lootyens thugs and congi "mai ke lals" were used to getting their way using a maze of cooperating baboo(n)s to cloak their shady moves and bedroom athletics.


Abhishek Singhvi in tax soup: officials reject claim that ‘termites ate vouchers,’ slap Rs 56-cr penalty



Written by Appu Esthose Suresh , Ritu Sarin | New Delhi |

November 12, 2014


Multiplying Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi’s Income Tax problems, the Settlement Commission has added over Rs 91.95 crore to his declared professional income over a three-year period and slapped a penalty of Rs 56.67 crore. The order has since been stayed. He had moved the Commission on his own but a probe was launched subsequently, prompting him to describe the proceedings as a “cat and mouse game” which “trapped” him.

Citing inability to furnish documentary proof to back his expenses claim, Singhvi had told the Commission that a termite attack on the premises of his chartered accountant in December 2012 had destroyed all records and expense vouchers, documents.

The Income Tax department and the Commission also contested Singhvi’s claim that he purchased laptops worth Rs 5 crore for members of his staff over three financial years and was, therefore, entitled to 30 per cent depreciation

Image

As first reported first by The Indian Express, Singhvi approached the Commission last year, seeking immunity from penalty and prosecution which has since been denied to him on some counts.

Singhvi moved the Jodhpur High Court which stayed a 103-page Commission order passed on September 11 this year.

“I have been the highest tax-payer among lawyers. Even in this case, the entire income was received by cheque, so were the expenses. So it is a case of over-expenditure and the department not agreeing to it. I went to the Settlement Commission suo motu before any survey or investigation started since I could not back up my claim due to destruction of records, and the loss of which I had reported to police before the I-T probe even began,” Singhvi told The Indian Express.

The Singhvi tax case saw the Commission launching a full-fledged investigation into the expenses shown by the assessee. This is what the Commission highlighted:

> The sum has been added to Singhvi’s professional taxable income since he took the plea that a termite attack on the premises of his chartered accountant in December 2012 destroyed all his records and expense vouchers/documents. This was not accepted by the Income Tax Department (ITD) and the Commission.

> The Commission’s September order noted that since Singhvi’s salary sheet had shown that he had employed 14 advocates/professionals to assist him, he would have had to purchase 1,250 laptops (each costing Rs 40,000) to account for the amount under that head.

> The Commission also probed Singhvi’s claim that he spent Rs 35.98 crore on purchase of solar panels for his company, Rishab Enterprises. It declared that the transaction was “mainly intended at tax evasion by inflating the cost of the panels”. Of Rs 25.16 crore said to have been paid by Singhvi, the company concerned admitted it received only Rs 21.39 crore. The owner of the company which sold the solar panels, and whose premises were searched by the ITD, gave a statement admitting that the cost was “inflated” and that Rs 10 crore was to be repaid to Singhvi in the form of a loan to his sons.

Incidentally, the Commission also challenged Singhvi’s original contention — made at the first stage of his assessment — that the net income he earned from his legal practice was in the range of 55 per cent. The order noted the Income Tax contention that other equally senior Supreme Court lawyers had informed the tax department that their net income ranged between 90 per cent and 95 per cent.

The Commission also referred to the earlier probe by ITD in which several cheque payments made by Singhvi — to the tune of Rs 10.97 crore in the same three-year period — were found to be “non verifiable”. Reason: When inquiry letters were sent to 91 parties, 37 were returned.

Following the Commission order, Singhvi approached the Jodhpur High Court which granted a stay. In his writ petition, he reiterated the stand he had taken before the tax authorities: “The record of the petitioner had been destroyed on account of termite attack and could not have established existing claims by bringing on record documentary evidence.”

He said the loss of documents due to termite attack was reported to police on December 13, 2012. While contesting the I-T view, Singhvi’s petition stated: “There is absolutely no finding of the commission to the effect that termite attack, consequent destruction of records or the police report in that regard is false, misleading, lack authenticity or is legally unsustainable.”

Singhvi alleged that he had been “trapped” in a “cat and mouse game” and argued that the Commission did not have the jurisdiction to impose penalty on him. “No authority and power has been however been granted to the Settlement Commission in way of the provisions of Chapter XIX-A of the Act to impose and /or direct imposition of penalty under the provisions,” petition stated.

On the issue of the solar power company, Singhvi’s writ petition said: “No report could be furnished after 12 January 2014 being the expiry of the statutory period of 90 days for furnishing the report… DIT (Director, Income Tax investigation) Mumbai had no locus in the present proceeding… DIT Mumbai referred to ex parte enquiry conducted at Mumbai and is not tenable since the said statement was recorded under section 131 of the Act.”
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Suraj »

Interest rates are estimated to fall a full 100bps within half a year:
Interest rates to come down by 1% in 3-6 months: Kamath
Demonetisation of high value notes will have a positive impact on liquidity and will bring down the interest rates by one per cent in the next three-six months, said seasoned banker and New Development Bank (NDB) chief K V Kamath.

“What I am looking at is... good monsoon, inflation coming down, and in the last quarter, there has been a 70-basis point reduction in headline interest rates, and with this (demonetisation), we would see a further drop in interest rates between now and say, three-six months, of another percentage point,” he said.
CPI, which was down to 4.2% in October, should be close to 0 in November, perhaps even negative. What's more, with no black market and improving NPAs, interest rate cuts should actually transmit effectively through the banking system.
Flush with funds, banks may cut lending rates
Yields on 10-year government bond, a benchmark of the prevalent rate in the economy, have fallen more than 25 basis points since Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes on November 8.

Banks opened the next day amid chaos, as people rushed to the branches to exchange their old notes and to withdraw up to the limit of Rs 4,000. The rest of the old notes will go directly to the banks as low-interest-earning current and savings account deposits. The high-value notes made up Rs 14.1 lakh crore of the cash in circulation. If a substantial portion of that comes back to the banks, there will be a massive spike in deposit base.

This will bring down the cost of funds for banks. The lenders are trying to figure out where to put the cash. Therefore, the deposits are being invested in bonds, leading to a spike in the prices of the papers.

Bond yields and bank lending rates have a direct relationship. After the new methodology of lending rate calculation came in, any incremental drop in cost of funds, including through the fixed income route, has to be passed onto the customers.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Karthik S »

The Metro Rail Guy ‏@TheMetroRailGuy
The Metro Rail Guy Retweeted ® वैशाली
What a horrible, horrible excuse. Finishing work, particularly at KGate & Lal Qila, has further delayed the line and not #demonitization
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Gus »

shiv wrote:Anyone who has witnessed a political rally in Bengaluru will know that 20-50,000 people are trucked in from outside in buses (lucky ones) and lorries (normal). These people lose an entire day and are at least fed - and probably paid Rs 500 a head. The vehicles probably cost Rs 5000 for a day. So for a day's political rally party functionaries have to cough up a crore or 2 in cash.

I wonder if the opposition parties have the funds to organize a huge political rally to oppose demonetization?
until last week of december, yes. as the rent-a-crowd can still go to bank and get exchanged.

come to think of it, rallies may increase - as parties may think that at least a portion of the waste goes to their cadre.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Philip »

Inking fingers as in polls is a ridiculous idea,adding to the labour of bank employees.already groaning under the massive ongoing exercise involved. Moreover,most pol parties have,allegedly some method of wiping off the ink and have legions of party workers who can stand in Qs happily knowing that they're getting unexpected post-Diwali "bonuses" by way of commissions from their pol bosses! The big sharks ,who don't stand in Qs for paltry sums are laughing all the way to the bank! Literally,as one individual who spoke to me ,said that some bankers are laundering cash 1 cr no problem,in smaller instalments,at a commission ranging between 15-20%. Bank employees on the make are having a field day. Media reports have given some other examples of collusion between bankers and their VIP/VVIP customers.Most banks run out of cash for exchange by 12 noon.I've twice been turned away.The weekly withdrawal sum is also inadequate.Current Accts. sums are also too little for many cos,enterprises who pay daily/weekly wages by cash.These workers do not possess bank accts.,credit/debit cards,etc.Where can they run too? It's very easy to sit pontificating in Lutyen's Delhi,as Arnab describes it, and tell citizens to use electronic means for paying for items. With the prospect of lorry movements being drastically cut down,there's going to be a food shortage next.The GOI had better make preparations for the TA,etc.,to be prepared for the worst so that there is no stoppage of essential supplies should the sh*t hit the fan eve with food supplies.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Shaktimaan »

Drove from Mumbai to Vapi, Gujarat today.

Paid Rs 2000 old notes for petrol. No tolls anywhere. First restaurant in Vapi main highway naka refused to take old cash or card payment. Second one also refused but very apologetically said they they have ordered a card swipe machine which will be delivered tomorrow.

The speed of going cashless will increase over the next few weeks...
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by svenkat »

Philip Sir,
you had linked to articles from huntington post.in and siasat.They are rabidly anti-modi.

I do not disagree to your post on deep rooted corruption(neta,babu,contractor,real estate,judge,police) etc in India.otoh,some corruption was inevitable given our diversity,retarded development,british divide and rule and dictates of electoral politics.Capitalist democracies like UK/US went through all of this under far far better conditions.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Chandragupta »

nachiket wrote:RE depreciation will be limited and temporary. There are millions of salaried families having only white money who were priced out of the market by the BM holders. If interest rates go down as is hoped along with an initial fall in RE prices, they will get back into the market and the prices will stabilize.
Pathik wrote:^^^^RE prices at least in metros will not come down more than 8-10% if at all. The big players will maintain quid pro with their asset and inventory power

added: some already have been dealing in 100% white
Nobody deals in 100% white in RE, specially in the secondary market. There is no big development happening inside Delhi or Gurgaon/Noida proper, now they are spreading out towards Greater Noida & Manesar as there is no land left. If someone wants to live inside Delhi, he only has choices of builder floors which are sold in crores in 70% black.

A south Delhi floor in an upscale neighbourhood used to go for 7-8 crores, who has that kind of money except big industrialists & NRIs? How many people are there in India who have income of 50L + in white? How many top management folks & CEOs have that kind of income and what is the number of such people?

My guess is RE will come down even more. People with Tech jobs will anyway live close to their offices which are in Gurgaon & Noida not in Delhi. Most upscale neighbourhoods are filled with Business people, big builders, industrialists etc who will be somewhat hit with the move.

RE is inflated because of corruption money. There are many sectors in Noida & Gurgaon where more than 50% of the land belongs to babus in state departments. It is registered in the names of their family & friends and they all collect rent from the property, take a cut and hand the rest to the babu who then goes on to buy more land. This is how it happens. I don't know how easy it is to find & seize such property but if it happens (and I hope to god it happens because these guys need to be punished, they are the fountainhead of corruption) you'll be stunned with the volume.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by sanjayc »

RE is inflated because of corruption money. There are many sectors in Noida & Gurgaon where more than 50% of the land belongs to babus in state departments. It is registered in the names of their family & friends and they all collect rent from the property, take a cut and hand the rest to the babu who then goes on to buy more land. This is how it happens. I don't know how easy it is to find & seize such property but if it happens (and I hope to god it happens because these guys need to be punished, they are the fountainhead of corruption) you'll be stunned with the volume.
Modi has said benami property (property purchased in a relative's name to conceal the source) is the next in line for action.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Pathik »

Suraj wrote:
Pathik wrote:^^^^RE prices at least in metros will not come down more than 8-10% if at all. The big players will maintain quid pro with their asset and inventory power
Could you please explain, who's the counterparty in the quid pro quo ?
Financiers, investors.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by yensoy »

Pathik wrote:
Suraj wrote: Could you please explain, who's the counterparty in the quid pro quo ?
Financiers, investors.
A counterparty requires a deal to happen. If there is no deal, there is no counterparty. I think the truly deep pockets will sit it out and wait for price to recover.

In fact, a very cynical view of how to profit from demonetization is this - buy heavily discounted properties from distressed promoters/builders (in white), wait for a couple of years for black money to rebuild in the system, and profit from inflated prices (of course your proceeds will be partly in black but you should be profitable on the white portion as well).
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Pathik »

Chandragupta wrote:
nachiket wrote:RE depreciation will be limited and temporary. There are millions of salaried families having only white money who were priced out of the market by the BM holders. If interest rates go down as is hoped along with an initial fall in RE prices, they will get back into the market and the prices will stabilize.
Pathik wrote:^^^^RE prices at least in metros will not come down more than 8-10% if at all. The big players will maintain quid pro with their asset and inventory power

added: some already have been dealing in 100% white
Nobody deals in 100% white in RE, specially in the secondary market. There is no big development happening inside Delhi or Gurgaon/Noida proper, now they are spreading out towards Greater Noida & Manesar as there is no land left. If someone wants to live inside Delhi, he only has choices of builder floors which are sold in crores in 70% black.

A south Delhi floor in an upscale neighbourhood used to go for 7-8 crores, who has that kind of money except big industrialists & NRIs? How many people are there in India who have income of 50L + in white? How many top management folks & CEOs have that kind of income and what is the number of such people?

My guess is RE will come down even more. People with Tech jobs will anyway live close to their offices which are in Gurgaon & Noida not in Delhi. Most upscale neighbourhoods are filled with Business people, big builders, industrialists etc who will be somewhat hit with the move.

RE is inflated because of corruption money. There are many sectors in Noida & Gurgaon where more than 50% of the land belongs to babus in state departments. It is registered in the names of their family & friends and they all collect rent from the property, take a cut and hand the rest to the babu who then goes on to buy more land. This is how it happens. I don't know how easy it is to find & seize such property but if it happens (and I hope to god it happens because these guys need to be punished, they are the fountainhead of corruption) you'll be stunned with the volume.
Bigger players like Raheja, Hiranandani, Lodha can deal 100% white if asked unless buyer insists on black.
Investment properties could be 50-50 ration B-W. Most ITvt friends who invested around Mumbai Pune belt bought theirs in white in the last five years.
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Post by srinebula »

All the usual suspects are propping him up. I don't know if there is any real contribution from him.
Prof. R. Vaidya had been talking about this since 2009. Narendra Modi demanded it in a public address in 2011. Swamy had been at for a long while.
habal wrote:
Karthik S wrote:

At around 10, he talks about new high value currency notes. He says they are for temporary usage.
he is talking of 0% interest rate regime. This is a world bank agenda. So is demonitisation and abolition of high value currency.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by vina »

Gus wrote:
until last week of december, yes. as the rent-a-crowd can still go to bank and get exchanged.

come to think of it, rallies may increase - as parties may think that at least a portion of the waste goes to their cadre.
They CAN'T they will need to change their OWN cash and they will get a ink mark on their fingers. Let us be very clear. The Rs 4500 is ALL that you can exchange. The rest has to be deposited in a bank and withdrawn , either via ATM or via withdrawal slip / self cheque.

If these idiots exchange someone else's cash, they will have to deposit their own cash and then withdraw it gradually. Sure, they can deposit the Rs 500 in the bank and get it out. But I doubt they will be very enthused if they find out that they can't get cash over the table after the first round of exchange.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Pathik »

yensoy wrote: In fact, a very cynical view of how to profit from demonetization is this - buy heavily discounted properties from distressed promoters/builders (in white), wait for a couple of years for black money to rebuild in the system, and profit from inflated prices (of course your proceeds will be partly in black but you should be profitable on the white portion as well).
Most RE players will sit out, hoard properties again use the old strategy to prevent market from falling.They have made enough money to afford this for a few months. The ROI can wait as usual when profits are multi fold. Most investments and construction has been on the BM anyways The same buyers would be picking up the properties...just delayed by a few months perhaps.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Sachin »

Observations on the way to office. In the rural parts most of the ATMs seems to have run out of money. No queues out there. Some of them have down their shutters while others have a "No Cash" board. In that part, people have also NOT queued up in front of banks. On the city side I had to cross a Vijaya Bank, Canara Bank and AXIS bank and each of them had a queue of around 30-40 people at 1000Hrs itself.

In Kerala, the Sabari Mala hill shrine has now opened up. I am sure that Lord Ayyappa may see lots of new devotees this time (even "seculars", "rationals" & "aetheists"). For the state this pilgrimage is a major source of revenue. I am wondering what would happen to the Rs.500 & Rs.1000s deposited there. My personal take is that when they come to deposit the money, the temple management should be treated as a business entity and the appropriate taxes & penalties levied on them. They can keep the rest of the money. What makes me worry is that if this temple just gets a chance to keep all the money (I mean it is like paying your govt. dues in old currency), the government would certainly misuse these funds to fund some other nefarious scheme (favouring minority religions only).
kmkraoind wrote:If I were you, I will use Tweet long to post above, and tag @PMOIndia @HMOIndia @FinMinIndia @DasShaktikanta
I am not active on Twitter, and hence could not do this. Can some one else active on Twitter do that? What I have done is to use the PM's official web site, which has a provision to register greivances. I have put the comments there, and received an acknowledgement.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by vina »

yensoy wrote:o profit from demonetization is this - buy heavily discounted properties from distressed promoters/builders (in white), wait for a couple of years for black money to rebuild in the system, and profit from inflated prices (of course your proceeds will be partly in black but you should be profitable on the white portion as well).
I expect a big land price crash and secondary market RE crash coming soon. I expect this to happen as of early Jan .
The followup action would be like this. ALL owners of non agricultural land will be required to file a wealth tax return / statement and all titles all over will be cross checked against returns (very easy to automate that in this day and age. A cross search report based on PAN no alone will do it).

Anything that hits and doesnt match the IT returns will be in trouble and the ones that are not filed in wealth tax will show up as Benami and be simply confiscated and auctioned off. Expect PANIC selling attempts by the Benami holders.
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Post by Pathik »

Can see a barter system already developing to replace black money cash. Drug, gold, land, arms could already have defined relative weightage. I hope team NaMo is looking at such deals closely
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by harish_ch »

disha wrote: Do you have BM?
None. All my cash is accounted for.
And what you feel about this DeMonetization?
Support it 100%. Though I feel this ink marking should have been done from day one. The long queues at banks for conversions is not all common man. It is mostly BM hoarders using puppets to convert as much as possible. Common man form the lower income groups I know are mostly stuck up with exchanging money (Rs 400 for 500 Note) with brokers in their bastis as they are overwhelmed by the queues and pressing daily necessities. I told them not to do that and suggested them to deposit it in their bank accounts. I don't see much change.
2. Are you using Payment banks like PayTM and are you encouraging your domestic help (or office helps) to open PMJDY accounts?
I use my cards and online banking most of the time. I rarely depend on cash. My domestic help have bank account.
3. Did you stand in ATM line and if yes, can you post your interactions?
I did not stand in ATM line not even in my office as I was able to manage without cash. But from the people who actually stood in the lines, I heard mostly positive reactions. One of my colleague says it feels like being in Shankar's "Nayak" movie :) .
My FB and Whatsapp is overflowing with messages supporting demonetization which I am promptly pushing ahead.
Several BM holders who were earlier looking quickly to exit their stash into land or gold. Now you do not have any competition from them. That is nobody is coming to compete with you and buying the property out as 100% cash or even 80% cash while you are trying to do 100% white and can only pony up so much.
Can you factor that in?
Coming to my case, I have bought a flat with 100% white component. It is a big community with around 2000 flats and all transactions are white. I talked to many of my co-buyers and no one is willing to sell their flats for less than what they bought for. Our opinion is, home loans will be easy to get given the cash surplus at banks now, and since ours is all white transaction, banks will give substantial amount as loan for buyers. So we(at least the one's with no immediate pressing need) intend to wait until that moment comes and not sell for less.

We may be wrong but we want to wait until an year or two to be proved wrong.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

vina wrote:
yensoy wrote:o profit from demonetization is this - buy heavily discounted properties from distressed promoters/builders (in white), wait for a couple of years for black money to rebuild in the system, and profit from inflated prices (of course your proceeds will be partly in black but you should be profitable on the white portion as well).
I expect a big land price crash and secondary market RE crash coming soon. I expect this to happen as of early Jan .
The followup action would be like this. ALL owners of non agricultural land will be required to file a wealth tax return / statement and all titles all over will be cross checked against returns (very easy to automate that in this day and age. A cross search report based on PAN no alone will do it).

Anything that hits and doesnt match the IT returns will be in trouble and the ones that are not filed in wealth tax will show up as Benami and be simply confiscated and auctioned off. Expect PANIC selling attempts by the Benami holders.
The prices will correct only to the extent of the cash component demanded.

This varies from 5 - 20 %, depending on the region.

Not expecting any corrections in the RE market in south India.

May very well happen in other parts of the country.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by vina »

chetak wrote:
The prices will correct only to the extent of the cash component demanded.

This varies from 5 - 20 %, depending on the region.

Not expecting any corrections in the RE market in south India.

May very well happen in other parts of the country.
All the "investors" are squeezed dry. The liquidity is sucked out. All the "investor" driven markets are dead. That would be Mumbai/NCR and probably Peepur's Lepubrick of Kerala. Bangalore will stagnate (the investor froth will go away), Chennai is probably stagnant to declining as well.

RE has topped out and will see time correction for the next decade until the fundamentals catch up. If you bought a house to live in great. If you bought it to flip /park your wealth in, you are going to see it stagnate for the next 10 years. And oh, if you were leveraged buying it , good luck, the interest cost keeps ticking and the rentals wont cover the interest outgo.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by abhijitm »

SHQ came from bank. Exchange queue had all slum dwellers. Looks like mostly hired people converting bm to w.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Aditya_V »

vina wrote:
RE has topped out and will see time correction for the next decade until the fundamentals catch up. If you bought a house to live in great. If you bought it to flip /park your wealth in, you are going to see it stagnate for the next 10 years. And oh, if you were leveraged buying it , good luck, the interest cost keeps ticking and the rentals wont cover the interest outgo.
If you are like me shit- you bought a slightly bigger flat 90% aldready paid out- to move in in the next 2 months, huge loan with diffficult EMi- mos of it which you hope to repay after selling the existing house to stay- tough luck, but again for greater good of country you take it.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

vina wrote:
chetak wrote:
The prices will correct only to the extent of the cash component demanded.

This varies from 5 - 20 %, depending on the region.

Not expecting any corrections in the RE market in south India.

May very well happen in other parts of the country.
All the "investors" are squeezed dry. The liquidity is sucked out. All the "investor" driven markets are dead. That would be Mumbai/NCR and probably Peepur's Lepubrick of Kerala. Bangalore will stagnate (the investor froth will go away), Chennai is probably stagnant to declining as well.

RE has topped out and will see time correction for the next decade until the fundamentals catch up. If you bought a house to live in great. If you bought it to flip /park your wealth in, you are going to see it stagnate for the next 10 years. And oh, if you were leveraged buying it , good luck, the interest cost keeps ticking and the rentals wont cover the interest outgo.
any property in a good locality in any city has a 25-30 % premium over and above the market, if sold to upwardly mobile "minorities" who are flush with cash from the gelf or wherever and are very very keen to get out of their traditional ghettos or other socio-religious defined localities.

locals are hoping to pickup "good deals" thinking they will benefit from distress sales in the secondary market.

Gelfies are still willing to pay premium, depending on the locality or well run premier housing colonies.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

abhijitm wrote:SHQ came from bank. Exchange queue had all slum dwellers. Looks like mostly hired people converting bm to w.
hence the indelible ink. :)

But again, there is an endless supply of such poor folk who can be made use of.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by JayS »

shiv wrote:
Nsmith wrote:
(3) There will be real contraction in the economy due to the factors listed above. The scope and depth of the contraction depends on the extent to which that trade was being settled in cash and compliance levels in general. So for example, real estate sector will be forced to re-price assets to more realistic levels and will witness significant value destruction. The ripple effects will also hit cement, sand, sanitary fittings, paints etc.
Thanks. This is what I thought. There will be a contraction of the economy - BUT. But the government now has money. Is that correct?
Short term contraction due to liquidity crunch, yes. Consumption will go down. Particularly in the high value items. But I see this falling consumption due to reduction in PP (purchasing power) of upper/middle class owing to their BM being compensated by the rising of white money middle class because money in their hand has higher PP now and in long term the middle class consumption will increase faster now. Expectations are than GDP numbers will be hit in coming two quarters. But things should normalise after that and should actually pick pace in say coming 2-3yrs or so.

As Suraj has said multiple times, the white economy is not gonna contract, it was what it was, only the black economy will now partially become white and rest will be wiped out. So if our GDP was $2T in white and $1T in black before 8th Nov, the white GDP will become say $2.5T now, plus some residual black component of $0.1T assuming it won't get cleaned just as yet. Rest $0.4T black economy is wiped out for now. But the added $0.5T to white side will have a positive cascading effect and will more than compensate the los black part in coming years. Net net, in say 5yr time frame we should have same economic size that we would otherwise have had, but now most of it would be in white. The more white it becomes lower the taxes and interest rates can go, and given channels to generate and keep BM are choked, the incentive to remain white increases with time.

my 2 white paisa. :mrgreen:
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by yensoy »

chetak wrote:The prices will correct only to the extent of the cash component demanded.

This varies from 5 - 20 %, depending on the region.

Not expecting any corrections in the RE market in south India.

May very well happen in other parts of the country.
It's hard to say. Prices are determined at the margins. Price of oil is based on what I can sell the last barrel of oil at. Even if deep pockets sit it out as the market collapses, a substantial fraction of people will have to sell - because they are over-leveraged, or have to pay IT penalties, or have big expenses, or because they just need to move. A 5% reduction in inventory may have a much larger percentage impact on prices (or in reverse a 5% increase in population will cause demand and prices to shoot up by even 50%). Then there is sentiment - how sanguine are people going to be for RE values to keep their upward trend? I am not an economist but know enough that the relationship between black money component of house prices and the trend of house prices will be determined by several factors and won't simply be 1:1 :-?
Aditya_V wrote:If you are like me shit- you bought a slightly bigger flat 90% aldready paid out- to move in in the next 2 months, huge loan with diffficult EMi- mos of it which you hope to repay after selling the existing house to stay- tough luck, but again for greater good of country you take it.
On the positive side, expect your EMIs to start falling in a couple of months.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by TKiran »

vina wrote:
All the "investors" are squeezed dry. The liquidity is sucked out. All the "investor" driven markets are dead. That would be Mumbai/NCR and probably Peepur's Lepubrick of Kerala. Bangalore will stagnate (the investor froth will go away), Chennai is probably stagnant to declining as well.

RE has topped out and will see time correction for the next decade until the fundamentals catch up. If you bought a house to live in great. If you bought it to flip /park your wealth in, you are going to see it stagnate for the next 10 years. And oh, if you were leveraged buying it , good luck, the interest cost keeps ticking and the rentals wont cover the interest outgo.
Vina sir, if you said it then it would be correct, I thought there is demand for the housing, so it would not change, but I didn't analyze the true picture. I will postpone my plans for 6 months, what's harm in waiting and watching, certainly RE is not going to go up in the coming 6 months. Thanks for your insight.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by chetak »

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:The prices will correct only to the extent of the cash component demanded.

This varies from 5 - 20 %, depending on the region.

Not expecting any corrections in the RE market in south India.

May very well happen in other parts of the country.
It's hard to say. Prices are determined at the margins. Price of oil is based on what I can sell the last barrel of oil at. Even if deep pockets sit it out as the market collapses, a substantial fraction of people will have to sell - because they are over-leveraged, or have to pay IT penalties, or have big expenses, or because they just need to move. A 5% reduction in inventory may have a much larger percentage impact on prices (or in reverse a 5% increase in population will cause demand and prices to shoot up by even 50%). Then there is sentiment - how sanguine are people going to be for RE values to keep their upward trend? I am not an economist but know enough that the relationship between black money component of house prices and the trend of house prices will be determined by several factors and won't simply be 1:1 :-?
I personally know many people who would like to sell but are put off by the ridiculously low prices being offered by "prospective buyers". The loans have all been paid off and the property is either simply locked up or sometimes rented.

They are simply waiting it out.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by yensoy »

JayS wrote:So if our GDP was $2T in white and $1T in black before 8th Nov, the white GDP will become say $2.5T now, plus some residual black component of $0.1T assuming it won't get cleaned just as yet. Rest $0.4T black economy is wiped out for now.

my 2 white paisa. :mrgreen:
Sir, a big portion of the black economy is useless and unproductive (actually counterproductive). Let's take it to an absurd extent. If tomorrow GoI picks one person, gives him or her 1 billion $, and says that for the next 365 days, he/she should pass it on to another individual, and at the end return it to GoI. So during the year 365 billion $ has moved. Does it increase the economy by 365 billion $? What good does it do?

So the excise inspector shaking down a liquor baron for money, which in turn he uses to pay off the politician, who then uses it to pay for crowds, who in turn use the proceeds to buy overpriced liquor from the baron... all this cancels out despite there being a "black economy".
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Supratik »

Those who have bought RE for longer term like me will see their market price decline in short term but cancelled out by lower/lesser EMIs. Prices will pick-up longer term. If there is no emergency and you did it in white the thing to do will be to sit it out. It is the short term punters with loads of BM who will be hit.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Marten »

I'd be more than happy to buy if the prices dip even 10%. Got mah powder dry and mah 'backy ready to chew. Shall wait for the raight dyeal.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Supratik »

If I were to go after BM in RE I would expect govt to bring out a scheme for people to declare their non-agri RE soon. People with Benami properties will most likely be holding the lota as I doubt now people will buy RE without clear ownership or even if they manage to sell they will take a haircut. However, I am not sure what will happen if they transfer it to their chacha-bhatija.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by SaraLax »

Some news articles on the situation across the nation.....

Demonetization effect on SMEs in Coimbatore, TN - Life Goes On with Minor Disruptions !
But, outwardly most activities seem near normal. Industry insiders admit to some difficulty here and there, but nothing that they cannot tide over.

Some of the small and micro units, used to paying its workers in cash on a weekly basis have felt the cash crunch. Though they have been crying hoarse about the tight money situation, workers did not openly attack the management for deferred payment. They concede that this is not a problem created by the management. They also admitted that the management in many units had provided them permission to visit banks to draw money even during factory working hours.

A week has gone by since the demonetisation announcement. Industry representatives had initially issued statements stating that they would have to stop operations as the withdrawal limits are small and they would therefore not be able to source the materials or pay off workers, particularly those on weekly basis.

But most of these micro and small units are still operational. There seems to be no visible signs of industrial unrest due to non payment of workers' wages.

There have been some rumours that some experienced workers, who had stayed on with the same employer for say four- five years, were given a month's wage and some extra amount as bonus – all in cash, and in advance. This could not be confirmed though.


For industrialists though, life goes on like before. A small scale industrialist didn't disrupt his holiday plans despite the liquidity crunch. He said he had gone to Kerala for the weekend with his family and friends with just Rs. 150 in his wallet, a couple of the now invalid Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes, and plastic cards as well.

“Gas stations accept these notes, we settled our hotel dues by swiping our card and got back with the money in the wallet intact. If you ask, most people, even small shops accept cards in Kerala, and banks are giving Rs. 4,000 in exchange for these notes,” he said.
Smuggling along Indo-Bangla border halted
KOLKATA, NOVEMBER 15:
It’s all quiet on the eastern front. Demonetisation has brought smuggling activity to a near standstill along the 4,000-km India-Bangladesh border for the last one week. Normally, nearly $4 billion worth of cattle is smuggled to Bangladesh and fake currency comes in from across the border.

“Border ke aas-pas koi mutne bhi nehi jar aha hai (no one is going to the border even to pee),” said a senior security official in charge of the border along South Bengal districts that account for 80 per cent of the total smuggling activity on the Bangladesh border. The view is corroborated by a senior police official who didn’t want to be named. “We are relieved from the fake currency smuggling headache for the time being,” he said.

State police are expecting demonetisation to wipe out the trade in fake Indian currency notes (FICNs)for at least a year now.
According to them, the turnover in illegal cattle trade could be conservative put at ₹25,000 crore. Of this, 60 per cent, or nearly ₹15,000 crore, is traded in fake currency.

An unofficial estimate suggests that out of every 1,000 currency notes of ₹1,000/500 denomination, at least five are fake. While the actual estimate of FICN will be known after completion of the demonetisation exercise, police sources say majority of fake notes are smuggled through the Bangladesh and Nepal borders making West Bengal the hub of FICN trade. Kaliachak in Malda district in West Bengal is one of the prominent smuggling routes.

“The density of fake currency in circulation is the highest in West Bengal,” a source said. ( Is this the reason why Mamata is shouting & wailing in a hoarse manner ?)

Over the past four years, Border Security Force (BSF) and other security agencies were grappling with fake currency smuggling through the South Bengal border.

In the last three years, FICN worth ₹6.6 crore has been seized by security forces. Eighty-five persons, including 11 Bangladeshi nationals, have been arrested. This year alone ₹1.35 crore was seized and 19 people arrested.

The seizure is considered a fraction of the trade.


“Certain areas such as Kaliachak have been prone to FICN smuggling. Over the past few years, we have raise the ante against them,” PSR Anjaneyulu, IG - South Bengal Frontier of the BSF, said. Minors are used in large numbers as couriers by the FICN smugglers.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by jamwal »

These Abhishek Singhvi news items on this page and previous are from 2014.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Sachin »

vina wrote:The liquidity is sucked out. All the "investor" driven markets are dead. That would be Mumbai/NCR and probably Peepur's Lepubrick of Kerala
Know a couple of small time players in RE sector in the Peepur's Lepubrick. Looks like RE sector was already not really doing that great. One thing there were some local laws which were changed, and this made registration process etc. more strict. The flat construction business also seems to have taken a big hit, with some of the low-level builders actually going kaput. Have heard of RE folks who were elephant owners, now working in Gelf super markets kind of cases as well.
chetak wrote:if sold to upwardly mobile "minorities" who are flush with cash from the gelf or wherever and are very very keen to get out of their traditional ghettos or other socio-religious defined localities
Upwardly mobile "minorities" also may land up in soup soon. Because it is these very folks who always encouraged transaction by cash. Yes, there are a lot of them who may have every thing in white, but chances of these folks having black money is much more higher. I saw some worried faces yesterday at office (and they are upwardly mobile "minorities")
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by jamwal »

Chandragupta wrote: Nobody deals in 100% white in RE, specially in the secondary market. There is no big development happening inside Delhi or Gurgaon/Noida proper, now they are spreading out towards Greater Noida & Manesar as there is no land left. If someone wants to live inside Delhi, he only has choices of builder floors which are sold in crores in 70% black.

.
Not an expert, but some people bought 1-2 crore cost properties in full white recently.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by JayS »

yensoy wrote:
JayS wrote:So if our GDP was $2T in white and $1T in black before 8th Nov, the white GDP will become say $2.5T now, plus some residual black component of $0.1T assuming it won't get cleaned just as yet. Rest $0.4T black economy is wiped out for now.

my 2 white paisa. :mrgreen:
Sir, a big portion of the black economy is useless and unproductive (actually counterproductive). Let's take it to an absurd extent. If tomorrow GoI picks one person, gives him or her 1 billion $, and says that for the next 365 days, he/she should pass it on to another individual, and at the end return it to GoI. So during the year 365 billion $ has moved. Does it increase the economy by 365 billion $? What good does it do?

So the excise inspector shaking down a liquor baron for money, which in turn he uses to pay off the politician, who then uses it to pay for crowds, who in turn use the proceeds to buy overpriced liquor from the baron... all this cancels out despite there being a "black economy".
Agreed, but a portion of it was driving consumption in the market and some other portion was providing liquidity to businesses through additional consumption and availability of cash for daily dealings. This part will actually affect the businesses in short term. But it should recover quickly enough once the system adjusts itself for more white content. The stashed part or the part which was just changing hands for bribery/large transactions like RE was not really contributing to the economy. All said and done, bringing this money in white will only have positive effect.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by Supratik »

From the secondary market or primary? Most reputed builders will not ask for BM upfront. It is the punter who will try to find out if he can do it in BM. However, secondary market is overwhelmingly black. Even if you are honest you cannot sell or buy without doing it in black becoz the other party will not take it.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Post by shiv »

Signs of economic activity returning to Bengaluru. More people about in shops etc. Bank queues shorter.
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