Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 07:56

So anything that happens in aleppo or afrin albab now has a sam bubble vs turkiye or nato if they go off the agreed script.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 16 Nov 2016 08:52

Flying air cover for the strike aircraft seems a much better use for the Kuznetsov's Mig-29K and SU-33 fighters. At least they can still carry a full load of AA missiles & fuel even with the limitations of launching from the ski jump. Ski jump is really only an issue for carrying heavy bomb loads.

The Kuznetsov could maintain 'round the clock air cover over Aleppo & Idlib provinces for the SU-24's, TU-22's and SU-34's, allowing the strikers to carry maximum bomb loads and concentrate on their targets. This also seems like an opportunity to use the old TU-95's for carpet bombing (if any of them are still equipped for that).

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 10:41

https://twitter.com/imp_navigator/statu ... 4607529984

Su-33 with bomb under belly and FAB-500 M54 close up

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 16 Nov 2016 10:43

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 19962.html

Syria's President Assad says Donald Trump will be 'natural ally' to 'fight the terrorists'
President-elect could join Russia and Iran in supporting Syria, Mr Assad says

Samuel Osborne @SamuelOsborne
One of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's supporters previously said he was 'ready' to cooperate with Donald Trump Getty
Donald Trump will be a "natural ally" of the Syrian regime if he fulfils his pledge to "fight the terrorists," President Bashar al-Assad has said.

Speaking for the first time since Mr Trump's election victory last week, the Syrian president said he was unsure the American billionaire would be able to keep his word and step up the fight against jihadists.

"We cannot tell anything about what he's going to do, but if... he is going to fight the terrorists, of course we are going to be ally, natural ally in that regard with the Russian, with the Iranian, with many other countries," he told Portugal's RTP state television.

When he was asked about Mr Trump's campaign comments suggesting the US should focus more on fighting Isis than the Syrian regime, Mr Assad remained cautious but said he would welcome such a move.
"I would say this is promising, but can he deliver?" he replied.

READ MORE
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ‘ready to co-operate with Trump’
Donald Trump signifies he will end US support for Syrian rebels
Russia says relations will depend on US after presidential election
Aleppo air strikes resume as Russia and Assad launch massive offensive

"Can he go in that regard? What about the countervailing forces within the administration, the mainstream media that were against him? How can he deal with it?" he said.

"That's why for us it's still dubious whether he can do or live up to his promises or not.
"That's why we are very cautious in judging him, especially as he wasn't in a political position before."
One of Mr Assad's supporters previously said he was "ready" to cooperate with the US President-elect.

The United States is currently leading an international coalition conducting air strikes against Isis fighters in Syria and Iraq. It also backs rebels fighting the Assad regime.

Drone footage shows Aleppo brought to the ground
"We have to worry about Isis, before we can get too much more involved" in Syria, Mr Trump said during the second presidential debate. He went on to say: "I don't like Assad at all. But Assad is killing Isis, Russia is killing Isis, and Iran is killing Isis."

Syrian activists from Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently (RBSS) fact-checked Mr Trump's position and accused him of being a liar.

Mr Trump recently reaffirmed his position, saying assisting the Syrian government in fighting Isis should be the US' main objective.

“I’ve had an opposite view of many people regarding Syria. My attitude was you’re fighting Syria, Syria is fighting Isis, and you have to get rid of Isis,” he said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday.

Russia and the Syrian regime launched a major offensive against opposition targets on Tuesday, hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin and Mr Trump discussed Syria in a phone call and agreed to combine efforts in the fight against "international terrorism and extremism".

Russia's defence ministry said targets in rebel-held northern Idlib province and parts of the central province of Homs were hit by jets from the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier.

Activists reported the resumption of bombing in rebel-held areas of Aleppo for the first time in nearly a month

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 10:50

#Syria Russian MOD claims Adm. Kuznetsov's Su-33s took part in last strikes. Videos only show Su-33s w/ R-27 & R-33 or clean !

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 10:56

Singha wrote:Yes its just field testing for bugs and demo for future clients. The 300kg warhead compares poorly vs the 750kg on each smerch rocket and i think a telar carries 12. The tochka will also be way cheaper for this role.

The second one seems to be a hit on extreme top edge of screen.

These large targets sitting in open need a visit from backfires or the su34. That will really fix them.

The Kalbir Cruise missile have used Explosive as can be be seen with the video and post destruction.

Bastion Hit seems to be just a kinetic one , Just a big hole on top no destruction caused by explosive around the large hole , no video footage of explosive unlike kalbir hit.

All targets hit are quite big looks like some sort of longish warehouse ....the destruction is propotional to explosive , Unless there is secondary explosion caused by explosive kept there or flamable substance there wont be any huge destruction beyond the kalbir explosive.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 11:15

the yakhont warhead could have malfunctioned and not gone off. a certain % of missiles are always duds incl the famous Thawks which Cheen hauled away from TSP.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 11:24

even with partial hits and damage, there will be a lack of volunteers willing to work in those arms factories again. another attack could drop in anytime. Eqpt will probably be relocated to dispersed sites and smaller plants taking advantage of the lack of airpower for a 24x7 thing on russian side.

a Reaper armed with 16 hellfires and hanging about all day taking shots would be ideal here .... cheap, agile, deadly

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 11:30

Singha wrote:even with partial hits and damage, there will be a lack of volunteers willing to work in those arms factories again. another attack could drop in anytime. Eqpt will probably be relocated to dispersed sites and smaller plants taking advantage of the lack of airpower for a 24x7 thing on russian side.

a Reaper armed with 16 hellfires and hanging about all day taking shots would be ideal here .... cheap, agile, deadly

Yes A Reaper like UCAV is soley lacking by Russians in Syria , Rest every thing is there.

The Chinese have it and so do Iranian , See no reason why Russians cant loan from them , for Syrian operation they need to take out target of opportunity that pops up in a moment and then gets lost , Jihadi Walking in Groups , In Toyota Convey , HVT etc.

In Jahadi Conflict , Persistance and Long Range UCAV is a must .....more important than fighter aircraft or cruise missile after the initial onslaught

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 11:33

Singha wrote:the yakhont warhead could have malfunctioned and not gone off. a certain % of missiles are always duds incl the famous Thawks which Cheen hauled away from TSP.

Quite possible but 2 Onyx were fired and both going dud would be rarity if not impossible.

I suspect they Russian must have used Bastion for LACM role for first time ( beyond their testing ranges ) they would have done some initial trials minus the warhead to see how it works in this role.

Bastion are not as sophsticated as Brahmos 3 for LACM role

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 11:36

Su-35S being loaded for A2G role

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 16:29

More Footage released of yesterdays Cruise Missile Attack

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 16:59

no vertical diving attacks in this series though I am quite sure trajectory shaping is possible.

what now ? the grigorovich has fired its missiles and has no role to play except ASW/anti-FAC

not clear is the russian subs lurking around have kalibers / klubs or yakhonts fitted.

time to wheel in a shipload of Smerch and Tochkas and start pounding on a industrial scale methinks. maybe setup a new sqdn of modernized Frogfoots in a latakia airbase and release them for the hunt ...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Nov 2016 17:22

Flagship of the Russian Navy in Syria: Onboard the legendary Admiral Kuznetsov

Farooq · Post by **Farooq** » 16 Nov 2016 17:39

Hashd al Shabi have reached perimeter of Talafar airfield.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 18:01

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 18:02

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 18:09

Tal afar on the edge of the desert...offers plenty of cover for a defence

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 18:11

habal · Post by **habal** » 16 Nov 2016 18:27

those roads are better than many roads seen in India circa 2010 for relatively mofussil areas. Maybe plenty availability of bitumen.

kit · Post by **kit** » 16 Nov 2016 18:31

habal wrote:those roads are better than many roads seen in India circa 2010 for relatively mofussil areas. Maybe plenty availability of bitumen.

Not much of rains !

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 16 Nov 2016 19:49

Singha wrote:Tal afar on the edge of the desert...offers plenty of cover for a defence

Looks like Jaisalmer (the city, not the fort). Such a bloody shame; it will have to be almost completely destroyed to get all the rats out.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Nov 2016 19:58

Al Jakeeda

Syria's war: US aims new sanctions at Assad backers
Motion targeting Syrian government and its backers adopted as bombardment of opposition strongholds in Aleppo continues.

US legislators have passed a bill that would sanction the government of Syria and its supporters, including Russia and Iran, for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the country.

The bill was passed by the House of Representatives on Tuesday, imposing new sanctions on Syria.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 20:16

Iraqi Day ‏@iraqi_day
#BREAKING
Hadi Al-Amari: The #PMU will fight #ISIS in #Syria after #Mosul battle & Bashar al-Assad has invited us.
#حكاية_الموصل #Iraq

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 20:17

Hence they were given this loosely defined task west of mosul to roam far and wide in the desert and bring justice to the criminals on both sides of the imaginary line drawn by british and french over gin and tonic in some london lap dance club ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 22:36

PMU have reached Tal afar airport after the ISIS abandoned its perimeter defences, surrounded it from 3 sides and are attempting to take over. 7 VBIED destroyed so far... here is one https://twitter.com/teamsmediawar/statu ... 2974365697

they will probably look to take over the airport which might have ISIS weapons caches, poison gas, mass graves and factory and then make for a point west of Tal afar to cut it off from Singal and complete the 360' ring around Mosul first, before turning back on Tal afar.

first close the net, then club the rats to death. it wont be pretty.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Nov 2016 22:41

YPG has withdrawn from Manbij and heading south for Raqqa campaign.

so looks like they will not contest the takeover of AlBab by the turkoman jihadi bands.

whether these bands will halt at Al bab or make for Manbij thereafter will decide if the YPG considers the US as a patron or not.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 08:19

DAMASCUS, SYRIA (9:05 P.M.) - Hashd Al-Sha'abi (Popular Mobilization Units) had another successful day in the western countryside of Mosul, liberating more than 18km of territory from the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS).

To top the day off, Hashd Al-Sha'abi managed to liberate the strategic Tal 'Afar Airport in western Mosul, killing a large number of Islamic State terrorists in the process of this advance.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 08:23

Leith Abou Fadel ‏@leithfadel 9h9 hours ago
Leith Abou Fadel Retweeted Haidar Sumeri
This is going to be some victory for Hashd! Can't wait until they start wiping out ISIS in Deir Ezzor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 08:23

Singha wrote:Iraqi Day ‏@iraqi_day
#BREAKING
Hadi Al-Amari: The #PMU will fight #ISIS in #Syria after #Mosul battle & Bashar al-Assad has invited us.
#حكاية_الموصل #Iraq

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 08:24

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 08:25

just a little longer keep going on same line to cut the last highway to Singal and the rat trap will spring shut

its quite clear ISIS has no cohesive military plan to defend their caliphate...in localized pockets depending on the motivation of the cadre and fear of their religious police, they will fight fiercely ... in other areas they will melt away tail between legs .... there is no large unit plan or movement just a dogged defence using suicide bombs ....

maybe over the last 2 years many of their ex-army veterans have died or been poached by the nusra and shams...whats left are the dregs, the perverts, the mental retards, the religious nuts and the brainwashed teen soldiers.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Nov 2016 09:35

Impact of yesterdays Cruise missile attack

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Nov 2016 09:37

3 Nusra commanders, dozens of jihadists killed in airstrikes from Russian aircraft carrier – MoD

https://www.rt.com/news/367205-syria-nu ... d-strikes/

“As a result of strikes delivered by Su-33 carrier-based fighter jets and air group of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, a large gang of the Jabhat al-Nusra group was destroyed in the province of Idlib,” Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said Thursday.

At least 30 terrorists were killed, including three field commanders, Konashenkov said, adding that the operation resulted in a “major blow” against Al-Nusra, which now goes by the name of Jabhat Fatah Al-Sham.

Konashenkov said the “well-known” commanders were Muhammad Helala, Abu Jaber Harmuja and Abul Baha Al-Asfari.

“Eliminated field commander Abul Baha al-Asfari was in charge of uniting the remaining reserves of Jabhat al-Nusra groupings in the provinces of Aleppo and Hama, as well as of planning and carrying out another militant attack on Aleppo,” Konashenkov said.

On Tuesday, The Defense Ministry revealed that Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, had for the first time taken part in a large-scale military operation, targeting terrorist forces in Homs and Idlib provinces as Su-33 jets began sorties from its deck. RT’s crew, which had been invited to witness the onset of the operation from the carrier, was told that all the bombers were fully equipped for the combat mission, each carrying high-precision 500kg bombs. Prior to the launch of the operation, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said that Russia had determined “the main targets” in the region, which included “ammunition warehouses, spots occupied by the militants; to be more precise – terrorists.”

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 10:55

the missile was a miss ... it hit the courtyard infront of the warehouse. there is a road leading from Saraqib in Idlib that does east to Khan touman which is the main supply route of jihadis and weapons. all nodes along this will be in target list.

Idlib will need a lot of work to soften up, as the jihadis have been entrenched there for a while now and enjoy ready access to the turkey border to move men and materials. the elite stormtroops probably just rest in turkey after each attack as most of Idlib frontier is dormant and under no pressure by the SAA. the dry open plains make TOW missiles very effective.

once Aleppo is done, Idlib will need to be attacked from all sides like Iraqis are doing in Mosul using artillery smoke shells to blind the TOW shooters in each village. the sheer impunity with which the gazelle helicopter was hit by a TOW was startling.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 13:53

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 13:54

linkup with kurds should be tomorrow. the great circle is complete. hard work by the PMU going out so far .. they have used japani WW2 type light infantry and light tank tactics, moving fast, bypassing strongpoints and being agile on their feet. and they have sorted out the VBIED thing and beaten off some serious swarm vbied assaults.

Daesh gathered around al bukamal and deir azzor must be shitting bricks at when this "mobile horde" will turn south-west and march in...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 13:57

Ukraine has developed a saudi-funded IRBM thats a iskander clone named Grom (thunder). per sputnik news they are threatening not only to flatten the donbass republic and crimea but even to attack moscow and teach russia a lesson

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Nov 2016 15:39

Russia quits war crimes court following Ukraine ruling. OT

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 16:00

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
Syrian Army military build up reported at Kweires AB south of al-Bab