Levant crisis - III

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Nov 2016 16:44

One strange aspect of this crisis is many milita and otherwise groups like Hezbollah have got legitimacy. Which would be unacceptable in a normal world.

Hezbollah paraded their weaponry recently : Lebanon army said nothing to do with them. But many armoury & tanks paraded are of US origin !

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 17:12

hezbollah is a state within a state more than a chota mota militia. relations with the regular lebanese army seem to be ok as they are fighting the same set of enemies. a few months ago the US donated some good kit to the lebanese army like hummers and artillery.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 17:14

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 1m1 minute ago
Explosion occurred at a weapon/ammunition storage reportedly belonging to Zinki

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 6m6 minutes ago
Another bombing in Azaz, over 25 militants belonging to #EuphratesShield were killed, north Aleppo

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 17:17

remnant of a missile that killed 8 civilians today in Afrin somewhere. it is a OTR-21 Tochka so could be syrian or russian owned..but it went astray for sure . pro-govt twitterers carefuly avoid mentioning these matters. i got it from a kurdish twitterer

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 17:19

raqqa front - SDF takes out a vbied head on
https://twitter.com/agirecudi/status/798247739041730560

1st missile missed and was a a dud ...its flame visible in initial part of video

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 17:29

list of active fights
1) deir azzor - attacks on airport or al-sina area every alternate day - SAA holding
2) Al-bab - turkey vs isis vs YPG (and SAA soon to join from kuweires NE Aleppo) - Turkey winning for now
3) SW Aleppo - JAF vs SAA+Hezbollah+iraqis+Afghans - SAA widening buffer zone but no big offensive yet into western countryside
4) E Aleppo - zinki + JAF vs SAA + Liwa al quds - major attack still to start
5) N Hama - SAA vs Shams / JAF - SAA + NDF slowly rolling them back up north
6) Ghouta damascus - SAA vs jihadis - SAA on verge of victory
7) Syria-Lebanon border mountains - ISIS affiliate vs SAA+hezbollah - SAA dominant

Raqqa north - SDF vs ISIS - SDF slowly advancing with SOCOM help but no move on city is planned
9) Tal Afar - PMU vs ISIS - PMU will cut the last road tomorrow and link with peshmerga b4 going for Tal afar town itself - PMU dominant
10) Mosul - 1/3 of eastern mosul is in govt hands. 900 isis killed, 100 captured.

list of inactive fronts
11) Qalamoun mountains - been quiet for a while
12) Shaer and Maher gas fields - E Homs - SAA mainly NDF holding it
13) Palmyra - Arak - SAA + Russians sitting there in eyesight of ISIS checkposts
14) Latakia - desert hawks et al were shifted to north aleppo
15) Idlibs eastern border - quiet for long - no moves yet
16) yarmouk camp on jordan border - ISIS have been served ultimatum to get out within 1 month of face blows

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 17:34

pro Govt - SAA, desert hawks/magaweer (funded by two brothers), tiger forces, NDF, hezbollah, russia, kataib hezbollah(iraqis), PMU volunteers, iranians, afghans, liwa al quds (palestinian refugees in syria)

pro Kurd - atleast half dozen kurd militias , some of whom do not see eye to eye , pentagon

pro themselves - jaish al thuwar arabs who fight along with the YPG/YPJ, Iraqi Peshmerga under barzani

pro ISIS - ISIS + rogue militias in the lebanese border and down south at yarmouk camp and such

pro Turkey + GCC - nusra + shams + 50 other groups incl sultan murad division and so on ... , CIA ...

pro Iraqi - iraqi army + PMU + NPU(nineveh protection units)

so close to 100 different players - and no more than two in any combination have the same end goals or motivations.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Nov 2016 17:41

great, Thanks Singha saar !

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 17 Nov 2016 17:59

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/18/world ... .html?_r=0

Turkey’s Free Press Withers Under Erdogan’s Crackdown.

Turkey now has handily outstripped China as the world’s biggest jailer of journalists, according to figures compiled by the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 17 Nov 2016 18:02

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turke ... SKBN13B1BK

Turkey's Erdogan could govern until 2029 under plans to change constitution

President Tayyip Erdogan could govern Turkey until 2029 with expanded executive powers under proposals the ruling AK Party hopes will go to a referendum next spring, officials who have seen the latest draft told Reuters on Wednesday.

Sathish_A · Post by **Sathish_A** » 17 Nov 2016 18:15

Singha wrote:raqqa front - SDF takes out a vbied head on
https://twitter.com/agirecudi/status/798247739041730560

1st missile missed and was a a dud ...its flame visible in initial part of video

Looks like an airstrike took it out.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 17 Nov 2016 18:17

Singha wrote:raqqa front - SDF takes out a vbied head on
https://twitter.com/agirecudi/status/798247739041730560

1st missile missed and was a a dud ...its flame visible in initial part of video

in the desert on a single highway the VBIED comes from a single direction. what if the convoy puts a few 4-strip Indian highway entry type speed breakers about 1/2 km and 1km in front. The VBIED will self explode or the rat-e-driver will die of broken back at this speed

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 18:36

They use the organic bulldizers to put a temp earth berm across the road when halted...around whole camp if needed

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 19:47

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 21:50

Distance from tal afar to syria border is huge and those black pockets on the map are all isis held

Will take a while clean up mosul region then turn west to syria

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 21:52

NDF ‏@NatDefFor
#SAA and #PMU officers are working together for upcoming eastern #Syria operations

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 21:54

Hassan ‏@Honor_Loyalty88
#PMU forces with support from 9th IA and armored brigade from 5th IA overrun #Daesh and liberate #TalAfar airport in 24 hours

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 21:57

Iraq has a chain of populated towns up the euphrates all the way to the border...much easier to stage out and enter deir azor from that angle than 200k across bleak mountains and deserts from arak sukhnah axis...logistical tail very long and vulnerable

Daesh still holds qaim the last town on iraqi side and al bukamal the first town on syrian side. Time to plan for both mashallah

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 22:00

Russian kola peninsula bombers in action..

Sputnik..more details awaited

Russian Ministry of Defense said Thursday that Russian Aerospace Forces carried out a strike on Daesh and al-Nusra targets in Syria on November 17.

Russia's strategic missile carriers used cruise missiles to strike Daesh and al-Nusra targets in Syria, the statement said. All of the targets' coordinates were verified by intelligence. The missile carriers' route lied above the water areas of the north seas and Eastern Atlantic, the statement said.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2016 ... ike-daesh/

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 22:42

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 2h2 hours ago
SDF have asserted full control over Tell Samen after intense clashes with IS, they are currently ~30km from Raqqa

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Nov 2016 22:55

Tu-95MS Russian strategic bombers target ISIS & Al-Nusra in Syria with cruise missiles

Russian strategic bombers strike ISIS & Al-Nusra in Syria with cruise missiles (VIDEO)

https://www.rt.com/news/367290-russia-c ... sis-nusra/

Russia has deployed strategic bombers to launch strikes on Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) and Al-Nusra Front targets in Syria, the Defense Ministry reported. The bombers flew from Russia for the mission, and fired cruise missiles while over the Mediterranean Sea.

With in-flight refueling on two occasions, the bombers covered a distance of some 11,000km (6,835 miles), flying over a northern sea route and the eastern Atlantic.

Su-33 fighter jets from Russia’s Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier and air forces from the Khmeimim base in Syria were also deployed in the strikes on Thursday, Interfax reported, citing the Defense Ministry. Su-30 jets provided cover for the mission, the report added.

After launching cruise missiles at terrorist targets in Syria, the Russian jets returned to base, the ministry said.

Terrorist command points, weapons and ammunition depots, as well as an arms production facility were targeted by the strikes, the Russian military said, adding that all coordinates had been checked through several intelligence channels.

"The results of the strikes were also controlled by drones," the Defense Ministry reported.

Earlier this week, the Defense Ministry announced that Russia was carrying out a large-scale military operation against terrorists in Syria. The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia's only aircraft carrier, took part in the mission for the first time. Su-33 jets were sent on sorties from its deck, targeting terrorist forces in Homs and Idlib provinces. The Russian frigate the Admiral Grigorovich was also deployed in the offensive.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 17 Nov 2016 22:58

Looking at the above map, the Mt. Athasan hills could be the Tora Bora of Iraq. The Sunni peaceful leadership have a propensity to run to mountains. Bad-daddy may already be there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 23:00

so the more southerly units based in Engels would be using the caspian route soon ... next few days...

using the atlantic route and those kh101 n-capable ALCMs is just rattling the bars of the cage with uk-france

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 23:05

northern edge of the mt athsan low hills have this military storage looking facility

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Mos ... 0004?hl=en

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Nov 2016 23:24

Rishi Verma wrote:Looking at the above map, the Mt. Athasan hills could be the Tora Bora of Iraq. The Sunni peaceful leadership have a propensity to run to mountains. Bad-daddy may already be there.

last heard bag daddy is moving in maze of tunnels (Mosul), scared like chicken and doesn;t even trust close aides, always moves in a sossai vest.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Nov 2016 23:37

the ISIS core have crossed the river and camping in the western Mosul which is not yet under any attack. Iraqi army has reached to some 5km from mosul airport but moving slowly....the western half of city is apprently a maze of narrow roads where even hummers will find it tough to move in.

taking a look at map the eastern half is orderly colonies. the core of the western part is the old city of mosul packed like purani dilli....it will need a long siege to save civilians, rest can be taken.

thats why commanders mention 2 months....the newer part of the city can be taken in 2 weeks if they press hard...but old city will be a real PITA

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Nov 2016 23:38

US State Dept believes Russia recently bombed 5 hospitals in Syria. Can't name them, locate them or even say in which cities.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LinaArabii/s ... 4761400320

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 18 Nov 2016 00:05

I predict once surrounded, Mosul ISIS will collapse within 2 weeks. Heavy Seige can only be faced with intact walls or continuous re-supply. Mosul ISIS will have neither.

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Nov 2016 01:20

As per CNN, paediatricians still abound in Aleppo. Wonder when they will opt to move out of bombs way. Maybe when it is too late.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 05:50

Gyan wrote:I predict once surrounded, Mosul ISIS will collapse within 2 weeks. Heavy Seige can only be faced with intact walls or continuous re-supply. Mosul ISIS will have neither.

^^that is a conventional siege where there is only ISIS inside. here a couple lakh civilians will be trapped in the old city behind ISIS guns so airstrikes and arty use except on the outer shell of the shrinking egg is ruled out. or they could punch holes , swarm in for raids and allow as many civilians as possible to run through the temp safe corridors before retreating.

Manbij had a similar situation and it took YPG two months due to civilian shields. they had to round up and bring in special units of snipers to finally defeat the IS.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 07:49

Tal afar iraqi helicopter takes out isis vehicle

https://mobile.twitter.com/nomorestans/status

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Nov 2016 10:29

deleted

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Nov 2016 10:31

Some one captured Kh-101 in flight over Syria

Identified two places shown in the video strikes by cruise missiles from Tu-95MS in the district of Aleppo. Both in the "green" and both of them could potentially be used. The first building - a police academy in the western suburbs of Aleppo. Second - some considerable military facility in the north-west of it (from colleagues Anton Lavrov).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 10:49

^^ the red star on the SE of the bottom rectangle is monte cassino er khan touman.

---

(TASS) The parents of Russian officer Alexander Prokhorenko, who was killed in Syria in March this year, have written a letter to French President Francois Hollande, urging him to unite the international anti-terror efforts.

The letter’s text was read out by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Thursday.

Senior Lieutenant Prokhorenko was killed when he was directing Russian warplanes’ strikes towards the positions of militants of the Islamic State terrorist organization (outlawed in Russia) in Syria. When surrounded by militants, he requested friendly fire.

Prokhorenko was posthumously awarded the Hero of Russia title. The authorities of the Orenburg Region where he was born have named a street in the regional center in his honor. Also, a school in the village of Gorodki in the Tyulgansky district of the Orenburg Region where he studied has been named after him.

"Mr. President, you, the father of four children, can understand the depth of our pain and there is hardly anything more frightening in life than the death of one’s child," the letter says.

"Sasha [Alexander] gave his life to prevent terrorists in Russia, France and other countries from killing people, so that there is peace in our countries and there is no fear," according to the letter.

As the letter says, there is still a long way to go to achieve victory over international terrorism.

"In Syria, the militants who killed our son are getting away from punishment as soon as they say that they are the opposition," Prokhorenko’s parents write.

"It is painful to see that the leaders of leading European countries are doing everything to give militants a respite," the letter says.

ALSO READ Syria Foreign Ministry calls on OPCW to investigate use of toxic gasses by militants in Aleppo
"Our peoples can defeat terrorism but instead of uniting and finally destroying militants, you are publicly denouncing the actions of Russian pilots," Prokhorenko’s parents write.

"You can’t be an observer in the struggle with this evil. Either we all struggle or you turn to be on their side," the letter says.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 14:26

line of 20+ dead isis in deir azzor

https://twitter.com/TheDaneChris/status ... 2000024576

must be after some battle.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 18 Nov 2016 14:43

Singha wrote:raqqa front - SDF takes out a vbied head on
https://twitter.com/agirecudi/status/798247739041730560

1st missile missed and was a a dud ...its flame visible in initial part of video

The First missile seems to be ground launched, freezing the video at 17 secs you can see it is air lanched bomb which gets the Vbied.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 14:53

lucky for the SDF then. they usually keep a pair of Milan warmed up at these checkposts. I have seen a video where the 1st missile missed and the second Milan hit home.

very graphic - turkish munna FSA savages have beheaded someone near Al bab and walking around with the head. at end of video you can see a child soldier also who cant be more than pre-teen

https://twitter.com/TheDaneChris/status ... 3898605576

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 18:31

PMU line outside the tal afar town

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 18:33

i think they will sit there a couple of days and let ISIS send their swarm of VBIEDs ... easier to knock them off across that flat open expanse of land

keep the kornets warm and wait...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 18 Nov 2016 18:35

Iraqi Day ‏@iraqi_day 29m29 minutes ago
#BREAKING IMPORTANT
Kata'ib #Hezbollah said it fired at a #Turkish jet that was circling over the #PMU in Tal Afar west #Mosul #Iraq.