Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Shiv sir, will doctors fall under gst? Should doctors in clinic also give bills with the number? My neighbourhood doctor never accepted anything except cash but today she was OK for credit card since the 5 in 1 vaccinations runs into thousands.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Bill Gates on Demonetization
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38014011
He is all for it and sees it as a revolutionary/leapfrog step. Posting the BBC since their spin on it is still more honest than the same news in HT or Livemint.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-38014011
He is all for it and sees it as a revolutionary/leapfrog step. Posting the BBC since their spin on it is still more honest than the same news in HT or Livemint.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
In fact, give the ability of this demonitisation along with the GST to force the ENTIRE parallel economy to come clean and stop all sorts of abuses including labor abuse and tax evasion the champions of labour, the Commies and the Unions must be singing HOSANNAS and welcoming this with open arms and stand shoulder to shoulder with the Govt and make this happen.
But no. They will do dharna, go stand with Didi, hem and haw.. throw "Whaddabouts?" Sure. How about MAKING SURE ESI is contributed and paid ? How about making sure taxes are paid fairly and evasion becomes very very difficult. How about making sure that the worker has wage accounts with banks. How about making sure that there is a formal social security system and safety net that gets in place. How about making sure that the future generation of black money
If Modi manages to get just these things in place. It will be a massive long term accomplishment in addition to the windfall he will get from this demonistation.
The commies SHOULD welcome this whole heartedly and support him unconditionally.
But no. They will do dharna, go stand with Didi, hem and haw.. throw "Whaddabouts?" Sure. How about MAKING SURE ESI is contributed and paid ? How about making sure taxes are paid fairly and evasion becomes very very difficult. How about making sure that the worker has wage accounts with banks. How about making sure that there is a formal social security system and safety net that gets in place. How about making sure that the future generation of black money
If Modi manages to get just these things in place. It will be a massive long term accomplishment in addition to the windfall he will get from this demonistation.
The commies SHOULD welcome this whole heartedly and support him unconditionally.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Add the cashew industry to the list of oppressed beings. To the last man, every plantation owner and trader is struggling. I now realize the same must apply to the spice industry - pepper and cardamom, for instance, where the grower is tax-free but the trader who makes more money than all of them never pays any taxes. Close relative (my insider source) is complaining that Kerala is struggling due to these restrictions. They're NEVER going to start paying PF or ESI health insurance for their employees.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Saar Indian Communism is virtually a form of religious fanaticism in the way they hang on to dogmatic beliefs. Unlike Naveen Patnaik or CBN or even Nitish Kumar, these have reduced themselves to a state where they see only a binary contest, basically everything that the PM does must be wrong, simply because he does it. They are unable to get out of that loop or see any nuance or even spot any opportunities in such decisions due to the pathetic state of intellectual bankruptcy. Likewise with Kejri.vina wrote:In fact, give the ability of this demonitisation along with the GST to force the ENTIRE parallel economy to come clean and stop all sorts of abuses including labor abuse and tax evasion the champions of labour, the Commies and the Unions must be singing HOSANNAS and welcoming this with open arms and stand shoulder to shoulder with the Govt and make this happen.
But no. They will do dharna, go stand with Didi, hem and haw.. throw "Whaddabouts?" Sure. How about MAKING SURE ESI is contributed and paid ? How about making sure taxes are paid fairly and evasion becomes very very difficult. How about making sure that the worker has wage accounts with banks. How about making sure that there is a formal social security system and safety net that gets in place. How about making sure that the future generation of black money
If Modi manages to get just these things in place. It will be a massive long term accomplishment in addition to the windfall he will get from this demonistation.
The commies SHOULD welcome this whole heartedly and support him unconditionally.
One can at least understand the positions of the INC and Mamta etc since they actually have a lot to lose from the decision.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Doesn't the same reason for not releasing new 1000 Re note hold for new 500 Re note? Say a person with 100000 black money will deposit 10000 worth of old 500 bills, pays taxes and fine for it on day 1. He will then immediately 10000 Rs. Next day he will again deposit 10000 Rs of old 500 bills and with draw 10000 in new currency. Rinse and repeat 10 times and all his old stash is converted to new currency. He will claim he has been depositing the same 10000 Rs every day whereas in reality he has exchanged 100000 worth of black money.Rahul M wrote:unless it is for a technical reason that's a patently stupid move.Paul wrote:Interview on radio from Mysore printing press: their focus is on lower denomination notes first, then bring 500 rupee notes into market.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
I think PM ji should address the social security of individual income groups with different schemes. We have salaried, retailers, manufacturers, distributors, service providers, farmers as the main income groups. Business men should not be a general term. Each one should have a different IT strategy and different social security system based on payment capabilities under each group.Doctors with clincs are individual service providers and I am not sure whether they should pay service tax or income tax or both.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Some thoughts on Black Money : ( sorry for the long post )
There has been a chorus from the opposition as well as paid media that less than 5% of BM is held in the form of cash , whereas the rest would have been long converted into other asset classes such as real estate , gold / bullion etc.
I will put down some points below to debunk that argument .
Now there are following types of BM accumulators :
1. Passive bribe takers – these could be lower level govt officers , police , even private sector officials etc. These guys are all pervasive , but the quantum accumulated by them would be relatively less as well as the damage done by them to society at large would also be correspondingly less.
These guys take bribes , and therefore the money is necessarily BM by definiton
2. Other Passive BM accumulators – these could be doctors / lawyers and other self employed traders and businessmen . These guys might accumulate a larger level of BM , but still their deleterious effect on society as a whole is still less and can be contained.
The money these guys have accumulated is BM not due to bribes , but due to being unaccounted for / untaxed money.
3. Active Bribe Takers – this is a more dangerous category and includes higher level govt officials at decision making levels , politicians etc. This category can and does ALTER policy decisions that engenders BM and necessitates bribes in order to CREATE MONOPOLIES , favourable decisions etc.
Not only is the quantum of BM accumulated much greater , but also the society suffers disproportionately in other ways as well such as inefficiencies , higher prices etc.
4. Active Black Money Enterprises - this is the worst of the lot. It includes all illegal criminal enterprises , political Parties , as well as legit enterprises that effectively are funded predominantly by BM ( such as real estate ) .
These enterprises would have the bulk of BM in the country , simply because they are actively using BM to fund their working capital needs an it acts as a multiplier and GENERATES more BM. Their entire edifice is built on BM .
These guys would have a very small part of their total BM in other asset classes , as they need liquid cash to fund and run their enterprises. This is the reason political opponents are the most vociferous in opposing the scheme.
Criminal enterprises , Naxals , Terrorists etc cannot squeal in public , and hence might instigate their various proxies such as paid media , NGOs or even friendly political parties etc to voice their opposition.
Legit BM accumulators such as Real estate developers ( after trying their best to convert to white ) would simply lick their wounds and adjust to the new NORMAL.
And here is another thought – even if someone manages to convert to gold / real estate – there would come a time when they will need CASH / liquidity. At that time they will have to reconvert their assets into cash. A tight enforcement accompanied by punitive measures would ensure that such reconversion wold be almost impossible without attracting the attention of ED / IT departments.
So basically , the worst affected would be the last 2 Active categories and the most serious damage would have been to the last category. Hence the opposition to the scheme and the arguments that it does not address the black money problem , when it fact it might have already achieved its objectives.
There has been a chorus from the opposition as well as paid media that less than 5% of BM is held in the form of cash , whereas the rest would have been long converted into other asset classes such as real estate , gold / bullion etc.
I will put down some points below to debunk that argument .
Now there are following types of BM accumulators :
1. Passive bribe takers – these could be lower level govt officers , police , even private sector officials etc. These guys are all pervasive , but the quantum accumulated by them would be relatively less as well as the damage done by them to society at large would also be correspondingly less.
These guys take bribes , and therefore the money is necessarily BM by definiton
2. Other Passive BM accumulators – these could be doctors / lawyers and other self employed traders and businessmen . These guys might accumulate a larger level of BM , but still their deleterious effect on society as a whole is still less and can be contained.
The money these guys have accumulated is BM not due to bribes , but due to being unaccounted for / untaxed money.
3. Active Bribe Takers – this is a more dangerous category and includes higher level govt officials at decision making levels , politicians etc. This category can and does ALTER policy decisions that engenders BM and necessitates bribes in order to CREATE MONOPOLIES , favourable decisions etc.
Not only is the quantum of BM accumulated much greater , but also the society suffers disproportionately in other ways as well such as inefficiencies , higher prices etc.
4. Active Black Money Enterprises - this is the worst of the lot. It includes all illegal criminal enterprises , political Parties , as well as legit enterprises that effectively are funded predominantly by BM ( such as real estate ) .
These enterprises would have the bulk of BM in the country , simply because they are actively using BM to fund their working capital needs an it acts as a multiplier and GENERATES more BM. Their entire edifice is built on BM .
These guys would have a very small part of their total BM in other asset classes , as they need liquid cash to fund and run their enterprises. This is the reason political opponents are the most vociferous in opposing the scheme.
Criminal enterprises , Naxals , Terrorists etc cannot squeal in public , and hence might instigate their various proxies such as paid media , NGOs or even friendly political parties etc to voice their opposition.
Legit BM accumulators such as Real estate developers ( after trying their best to convert to white ) would simply lick their wounds and adjust to the new NORMAL.
And here is another thought – even if someone manages to convert to gold / real estate – there would come a time when they will need CASH / liquidity. At that time they will have to reconvert their assets into cash. A tight enforcement accompanied by punitive measures would ensure that such reconversion wold be almost impossible without attracting the attention of ED / IT departments.
So basically , the worst affected would be the last 2 Active categories and the most serious damage would have been to the last category. Hence the opposition to the scheme and the arguments that it does not address the black money problem , when it fact it might have already achieved its objectives.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Arrived BLR airport very early AM in darkness from Goa. Usually, take an airport KSTDC taxi from the rank. Dulled by a delayed Air Asia flight and fuelled by my own smugness,decided to use Uber + payTM and beat the taxi cash hassles.
I
Booked an Uber ride. Full marks to BIAL for being responsive and incorporating app based ride services into airport transportation options inc. signage.
Went to Uber pick up zone and smack bang into the equivalent of a white collar UPSRTC Bus stand.Smarter and more smug people than me. Ola section was desserted. uber section was white collar Kalyug. Uber ushers screaming, crowds blocking the driveway chatting animatedly on the phone with Uber drivers and peering into the high beam headlights of incoming Uber cars to spot their ride. Horns blaring everywhere.
My driver took 35 minutes to crawl from airport entrance to pick up zone and another 20 minutes to exit parking lot.
At the end of my trip, at 230 AM it was all worth it with a smooth, hassle free, no arguemenfs over small change payment.
Today morning, dry BLR sunshine feels great after Goa humidity.And, heh heh, a small back pack with 10k in 50 denominations sets me up,nicely for weekend fun and frolic in BLR. With the currency bulk, I feel like a cashed up,baniya. Will remember not to stuff these bundles into my pant pocket lest the resultant terrible bugle asymmetry give PYT's and amma's with flowers in hair the wrong idea

I
Booked an Uber ride. Full marks to BIAL for being responsive and incorporating app based ride services into airport transportation options inc. signage.
Went to Uber pick up zone and smack bang into the equivalent of a white collar UPSRTC Bus stand.Smarter and more smug people than me. Ola section was desserted. uber section was white collar Kalyug. Uber ushers screaming, crowds blocking the driveway chatting animatedly on the phone with Uber drivers and peering into the high beam headlights of incoming Uber cars to spot their ride. Horns blaring everywhere.
My driver took 35 minutes to crawl from airport entrance to pick up zone and another 20 minutes to exit parking lot.
At the end of my trip, at 230 AM it was all worth it with a smooth, hassle free, no arguemenfs over small change payment.
Today morning, dry BLR sunshine feels great after Goa humidity.And, heh heh, a small back pack with 10k in 50 denominations sets me up,nicely for weekend fun and frolic in BLR. With the currency bulk, I feel like a cashed up,baniya. Will remember not to stuff these bundles into my pant pocket lest the resultant terrible bugle asymmetry give PYT's and amma's with flowers in hair the wrong idea



Last edited by rahulm on 19 Nov 2016 12:16, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Why are new 500 notes not in market?
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
the differentiation with the old notes make it obvious.hanumadu wrote:Doesn't the same reason for not releasing new 1000 Re note hold for new 500 Re note? Say a person with 100000 black money will deposit 10000 worth of old 500 bills, pays taxes and fine for it on day 1. He will then immediately 10000 Rs. Next day he will again deposit 10000 Rs of old 500 bills and with draw 10000 in new currency. Rinse and repeat 10 times and all his old stash is converted to new currency. He will claim he has been depositing the same 10000 Rs every day whereas in reality he has exchanged 100000 worth of black money.Rahul M wrote: unless it is for a technical reason that's a patently stupid move.
>> Why are new 500 notes not in market?
started seeing them from today.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Thats great. You have great conviction and maybe it will last forever. Would that be the case for the 80% of population forever ? What will happen two months down the road when the people who have certain amount of money they earn and not pay tax for have those avenues dried up ? Will they raise prices ? If 80% dont support it and say the support goes down to 70% what are the political implications ?shiv wrote:one shade, jet black. There are no "shades".
Moreover such unfettered convictions come from where ? Are these based in some more basic human emotions ? Are these based on our perceptions of morality ? practicality ? logic ? envy ? patriotism ? Does everyone make the support/not-support decision based on the exact same emotions in 125 crore population ?
I think a lot of these things determine the eventual fallout of this. Its not even a question of anybody's supporting or not-supporting this action anymore. The action has been taken. What BRF needs to do is recognise that this is either a huge opportunity and an equally huge risk. The risks need to be minimised and opportunities maximised.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
I am especially worried about this sentiment. Its a negative sentiment. Its based out of envy and its very dangerous in my mind.Bart S wrote:
"I'm an ordinary man and I'm suffering hardship too. I was in a long queue on Saturday. But it's worth it. The rich need to be punished for being greedy. I am savouring the moment," said a smiling Mohan Kishore, who sells fresh coconut water on a South Delhi street.
This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/world/for-the-fir ... srcuo.html
https://mises.org/library/appeasing-envy
The envious are not satisfied with equality; they secretly yearn for superiority and revenge. In the French Revolution of 1848, a woman coal-heaver is said to have remarked to a richly dressed lady: “Yes, madam, everything’s going to be equal now; I shall go in silks and you’ll carry coal.”
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Talked to a rickshaw wala in Mumbai. His net earning these days is 50 Rs per day after paying his rick owner, gas etc. He was not in good mood but still had bit of a patience left.
Got down from rick and overheard a cobbler saying 'it is better to have a job these days.'
Got down from rick and overheard a cobbler saying 'it is better to have a job these days.'
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
But the differentiation holds for new 1000 Rs bill too. Unless they specifically record whether the bills being deposited are old or new, they cant refute the customer's claim that it is the same money in new bills he was depositing all along.Rahul M wrote:the differentiation with the old notes make it obvious.hanumadu wrote:
Doesn't the same reason for not releasing new 1000 Re note hold for new 500 Re note? Say a person with 100000 black money will deposit 10000 worth of old 500 bills, pays taxes and fine for it on day 1. He will then immediately 10000 Rs. Next day he will again deposit 10000 Rs of old 500 bills and with draw 10000 in new currency. Rinse and repeat 10 times and all his old stash is converted to new currency. He will claim he has been depositing the same 10000 Rs every day whereas in reality he has exchanged 100000 worth of black money.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Lower denomination Notes keeps inflation under controlSupratik wrote:Why are new 500 notes not in market?
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
There is a growing undercurrent of distress that GoI should not ignore.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
+1RajeshG wrote:I am especially worried about this sentiment. Its a negative sentiment. Its based out of envy and its very dangerous in my mind.Bart S wrote:
"I'm an ordinary man and I'm suffering hardship too. I was in a long queue on Saturday. But it's worth it. The rich need to be punished for being greedy. I am savouring the moment," said a smiling Mohan Kishore, who sells fresh coconut water on a South Delhi street.
This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/world/for-the-fir ... srcuo.html
There is palpable class resentment in the masses. Modi in his recent speech said something to the effect of 'kadwi chai gareeb ko acchi lagti but ameero se nahi pi jaati' (the poor want strong tea but the rich cant have a sip of it). Its better to use words like bhrashtachari, kale dhan ke malik etc instead of saying ameer. Not every rich person in India is a BM hoarder.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Well, after being abused and treated dismissively and like dirt by classes of people who accumulated illegal wealth, one can't really fault them for feeling that way. Read the article fully, including the account of the driver. What they are complaining about is ill treatment, it's not really fair to put it down to envy.RajeshG wrote:I am especially worried about this sentiment. Its a negative sentiment. Its based out of envy and its very dangerous in my mind.Bart S wrote:
"I'm an ordinary man and I'm suffering hardship too. I was in a long queue on Saturday. But it's worth it. The rich need to be punished for being greedy. I am savouring the moment," said a smiling Mohan Kishore, who sells fresh coconut water on a South Delhi street.
This story was found at: http://www.smh.com.au/world/for-the-fir ... srcuo.html
https://mises.org/library/appeasing-envy
The envious are not satisfied with equality; they secretly yearn for superiority and revenge. In the French Revolution of 1848, a woman coal-heaver is said to have remarked to a richly dressed lady: “Yes, madam, everything’s going to be equal now; I shall go in silks and you’ll carry coal.”
However, I don't think the guy conveyed the sentiment eruditely, what he was trying to say was it is good to see some comeuppance for people who lorded over folks like him purely because of illegal activities and black money. That is definitely not something that anybody can find fault with, except black money supporters of course.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
I am beginning to the emergence of cashless market in Nehru place Delhi over the last few days. Pay TM and oxygen wallets acceptance has grown manifold. Initially almost no one was accepting electronic cash. But now, the acceptance has increased. We still have holdouts that are only accepting cash. But as time goes by this number should reduce.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
IT notices have started arriving for people. For deposits as low as 4 Lakhs Rs.
I think the entire thieving business of sending cooks, drivers, gardeners to do deposit itself will stop.
What's really perplexing is that many segments of the erstwhile parallel economy still dealing with old notes.
Are they too stupid not to know the consequences, as they may probably be last in the chain and would need to dispose of the cash?
Or they have some tricks up their sleeves that we don't know yet? Collusion with some bankers, maybe? Not casting aspersions on bankers per se, but I cannot see any logical explanation of use of old notes outside hospitals, pharmacies, transportation (rail / air etc.) and utilities (LPG/ electricity etc.).
I think the entire thieving business of sending cooks, drivers, gardeners to do deposit itself will stop.
What's really perplexing is that many segments of the erstwhile parallel economy still dealing with old notes.
Are they too stupid not to know the consequences, as they may probably be last in the chain and would need to dispose of the cash?
Or they have some tricks up their sleeves that we don't know yet? Collusion with some bankers, maybe? Not casting aspersions on bankers per se, but I cannot see any logical explanation of use of old notes outside hospitals, pharmacies, transportation (rail / air etc.) and utilities (LPG/ electricity etc.).
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
This I agree. People have contributed to this perfidious system by enabling this at some level and this makes them liable. My parents worked in a government sector hospital as medics. Things were not easy for them as they never took a bribe. This surgery by Modi ji vindicates my parents (and other honest folks) and it will make most people who abetted the system to live within the constraints of the system. Black money enables buying peoples integrity. If one looses their integrity, nothing in the world can replace that. Morals notwithstanding.RajeshG wrote:
people here take BM as evil and almost everybody who has 'black' money as kaffir.
in real world BM isnt quiet black - but there are shades of grey. even people with 'black' money have 'morals'.
Hopefully the system will regain its integrity gradually and so would the people.
Another thing this will do is the foreigners who visit India will find a more honest populace. They wont be fleeced. Most educational institutes set up by politicians will have to shut shop as they wont be be able to keep it functional. Smoking more hopium, I think the medics will start acting like service providing 'Kshudras' rather than imagining themselves to be businessmen 'Vaishayas'.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Sorry absolutely no idea about this. But the fact is doctors are supposed to provide receipts in their private clinics like any other business.kvraghav wrote:Shiv sir, will doctors fall under gst? Should doctors in clinic also give bills with the number? My neighbourhood doctor never accepted anything except cash but today she was OK for credit card since the 5 in 1 vaccinations runs into thousands.
Most of my receipts come via a hospital which always gives a printed receipt and this turned out to be medicolegally important to me when a patient once tried to blame me by failing to acknowledge that he had seen me earlier. The attempt failed because there was a dated entry of his earlier payment of consultation fee.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
In the era of 100% digitized core banking systems, there is nothing an individual banker can do really. That is why most of the action is in cooperative banks that are not yet in the net.SRoy wrote: Or they have some tricks up their sleeves that we don't know yet? Collusion with some bankers, maybe? Not casting aspersions on bankers per se, but I cannot see any logical explanation of use of old notes outside hospitals, pharmacies, transportation (rail / air etc.) and utilities (LPG/ electricity etc.).
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
All services will fall under GST. However healthcare is usually zero rated or there will be 0% tax applicable on the invoice. This will give rise to many tax related issues to the doctor or hospital in claiming back their input tax but then it is all off topic.will doctors fall under gst?
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
I feel like each poor person being offered the 2.5 lakh should take it and run if they can. Why commission? It's their money to keep, all of it. Govt is not going to come after individual 2.5 lakh anyway.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
My convictions are my convictions. Ultimately what happens will be which set of convictions outweighs and overwhelms a different set of convictions.RajeshG wrote: Moreover such unfettered convictions come from where ? Are these based in some more basic human emotions ? Are these based on our perceptions of morality ? practicality ? logic ? envy ? patriotism ? Does everyone make the support/not-support decision based on the exact same emotions in 125 crore population ?
I think a lot of these things determine the eventual fallout of this. Its not even a question of anybody's supporting or not-supporting this action anymore. The action has been taken. What BRF needs to do is recognise that this is either a huge opportunity and an equally huge risk. The risks need to be minimised and opportunities maximised.
My own convictions have meant bugger-all/zilch to the nation so far but those convictions are not about to change. Those who do not share my convictions and feel that there are lighter shades of "acceptable" black money, "good" black money, "recession preventing" black money, "I am an old man" black money, "Everyone else does it so why not me" black money, "my collection is so small" black money, "doctors do 90% good & deserve a break" black money, Govt is full of cheats black money have ruled this nation for decades - and that is probably what one can expect will happen in future also.
Last edited by shiv on 19 Nov 2016 14:55, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
But are the cooperative banks allowed to undertake exchanges or deposits with any paper trail and PAN?Bart S wrote:In the era of 100% digitized core banking systems, there is nothing an individual banker can do really. That is why most of the action is in cooperative banks that are not yet in the net.SRoy wrote: Or they have some tricks up their sleeves that we don't know yet? Collusion with some bankers, maybe? Not casting aspersions on bankers per se, but I cannot see any logical explanation of use of old notes outside hospitals, pharmacies, transportation (rail / air etc.) and utilities (LPG/ electricity etc.).
If so then it is a big lapse.
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Vinod ji,vinod wrote:The prices are falling... can any of gurus guess how much of this exercise will end up causing a dreadful deflation and businesses to start failing?
Already workers are being sent to withdraw money rather than work. The RE guys may just stop construction and start firing workers enmasse. Other sectors, I can't see getting affected. But assuming many businesses would have hired thinking they can use the black to offset some expenses may fire the excess capacity. Where will these people go?
I'm assuming Modi will have to come up with major pumping into economy soon. Pretty sure it will happen in Jan, can it wait until that?
Can you please tell me why 'deflation' is so dreadful? I am not being sarcastic or am not trying to come across as trite?
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
If you think it through, its a smart move. The GOI is not facing solvency issue like it can happen in a currency crash.Rahul M wrote:unless it is for a technical reason that's a patently stupid move.Paul wrote:Interview on radio from Mysore printing press: their focus is on lower denomination notes first, then bring 500 rupee notes into market.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
I don't think so.SRoy wrote:But are the cooperative banks allowed to undertake exchanges or deposits with any paper trail and PAN?Bart S wrote:
In the era of 100% digitized core banking systems, there is nothing an individual banker can do really. That is why most of the action is in cooperative banks that are not yet in the net.
If so then it is a big lapse.
However my point was that they are not fully under RBI control and supervision and aren't digitized to the same level either, so there there is a genuine chance that corrupt bank officials (and there should be many of them, given that these are mostly fronts for politicians and hawala channels) can help launder money by tampering with records, for example putting a pre-demonetization date on deposits.
The authorities can still audit them and ferret out a lot of this stuff, but it isn't foolproof or easy to do that.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
why would there be an solvency issue or a currency crash with this ? rather the opposite I would think !panduranghari wrote:If you think it through, its a smart move. The GOI is not facing solvency issue like it can happen in a currency crash.Rahul M wrote: unless it is for a technical reason that's a patently stupid move.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
If the BJP wants to have a surgical strike at CPM in kerala , here is their golden chance .. audit those cooperative banks in kerala .. reportedly upto 50000 crores stashed hereBart S wrote:I don't think so.SRoy wrote: But are the cooperative banks allowed to undertake exchanges or deposits with any paper trail and PAN?
If so then it is a big lapse.
However my point was that they are not fully under RBI control and supervision and aren't digitized to the same level either, so there there is a genuine chance that corrupt bank officials (and there should be many of them, given that these are mostly fronts for politicians and hawala channels) can help launder money by tampering with records, for example putting a pre-demonetization date on deposits.
The authorities can still audit them and ferret out a lot of this stuff, but it isn't foolproof or easy to do that.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Once a certain *minimum* threshold is reached (per trade; difficult to say what that threshold is) the holdouts will have to adapt or perish.Pratyush wrote:I am beginning to the emergence of cashless market in Nehru place Delhi over the last few days. Pay TM and oxygen wallets acceptance has grown manifold. Initially almost no one was accepting electronic cash. But now, the acceptance has increased. We still have holdouts that are only accepting cash. But as time goes by this number should reduce.
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- Posts: 3469
- Joined: 07 Dec 2008 15:26
- Location: Kingdom of My Fair Lady
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
The Sikkim notice? That is probably fake, no pan number, no section of IT law etc. And I don't think IT guys have so much bandwidth to serve notices to such small larvae not even fish.SRoy wrote:IT notices have started arriving for people. For deposits as low as 4 Lakhs Rs.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
At the lowest level, e.g. a hawker or a small time poor farmer with a small land holding, depositing 1 lakh into his account may not invite any scrutiny. For them it is still safe to accept old notes though not desirable.SRoy wrote:Are they too stupid not to know the consequences, as they may probably be last in the chain and would need to dispose of the cash
Some leakage is to be expected. My initial guess stated before (Not base on any knowledge but just on the 80/20 principle) is that we can expect up to 20% leakage. That would still constitute a big win in my view.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 493215.cms
The Reserve Bank of India has withdrawn the facility given to the cooperative banks the right to accept or exchange the spiked 500 and 1,000 rupee notes.
The Reserve Bank of India has withdrawn the facility given to the cooperative banks the right to accept or exchange the spiked 500 and 1,000 rupee notes.

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Nice move. Anyway there was not a single person i could see in a cooperative bank yesterday.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
Just returned from Nilgiri's and Richmond super market in Richmond. BAU. Saw change for 2000 being tendered by checkout without any fuss.
He is sorting and keeping 2000 in a separate bag.
Both establishments have swipe machines so right up my alley.
He is sorting and keeping 2000 in a separate bag.
Both establishments have swipe machines so right up my alley.
Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy
My guess is that these *non-cooperative* cooperatives will be subjected to DEEP forensic audits BUT after Dec 2016.