Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 08 Dec 2016 09:58

Rammpal wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:Akhilesh Yadav in all wisdom announced that UP gov will give compensation to anyone dying while standing in a bank queue.
That's a witty one, but, do UP folks understand such jokes ?

It's not a joke, in UP dead can vote so a compensated dead can vote often.

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 08 Dec 2016 11:21

Ah, so That's where his compassion is !!

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Dec 2016 11:40

parashara wrote: A couple armchair "finance whizzes" on this forum jumped in aggressively yelling about why my friend was dead wrong and why this was perfectly doable - see messages from Suraj et. al.

Interesting., this couple of armchair "finance whizzes" have got bunch of economic predictions right which even the eCONomist continuously missed. So maybe instead of name-calling., it will be better to serve you to listen to them. They may still get things wrong but more often than not, they will get it right.

parashara wrote: Turns out my friend was absolutely right. And also looks like the amount of this liability is in the tune of 1.5L Cr.

Just because it will not be done does not mean that it cannot be done. Previous Demonetization., RBI transferred it to GOI as a dividend. So a precedent exists. But will RBI do it for this round of demonetization? Per Urjit Patel., the answer is No. And if you read the Indian Economy thread., you will get your answer (the debt burden of the GOI comes down).

parashara wrote: Moral: Better to trust a good friend who speaks softly than some virtual actors low on gyaan and high on vitriol.

Moral: Better to trust a good brain who speaks the truth than some unnamed friends low on gyaan and high on weed

GeorgeM · Post by **GeorgeM** » 08 Dec 2016 11:46

Rammpal wrote:
ramana wrote:8 December marks one month of demonetization. Has the media figured out the real impacts or still going atrocity reporting?
Probably been busy with Pearl Harbor bombing anniversary writeups.

have you guys read this.
Great article, sector by sector impact. Published Dec7th, a month after DEMO.
The big surprise is agriculture. Nuetral to Positive. But this is short term, the caveat is - cash supply has to increase, for sustaining this.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 843771.cms

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Dec 2016 11:55

Rishirishi wrote: 3
The bank notes represent about 15% of the GDP. There will be a drop in the GDP by approx 2%-4%.

Major fallacy: GDP is a measure of economic activity and not a measure of currency in circulation.

If your logic is right., if all the currency notes are taken out of circulation and everything goes DeMaterialized (or electronic) - will the GDP be zero?

4
As I see it so far, only money laudrers has made a profit on this, the rest of the people have lost.

Your point 4 is in direct contravention of your point 1. Wait., I think I can guess your political leanings now

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2016 12:01

sivab wrote:
parashara wrote:A few days back I asked a question on this forum:
"Can the RBI erase the liability equivalent of the unsurfaced BM and transfer that as dividend to the govt?"

A banking tech friend of mine said:
"Nonsense - can't be done"

A couple armchair "finance whizzes" on this forum jumped in aggressively yelling about why my friend was dead wrong and why this was perfectly doable - see messages from Suraj et. al.

Turns out my friend was absolutely right.

And also looks like the amount of this liability is in the tune of 1.5L Cr.

Read the Urjit Patel uvaacha below:
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... eststories

Moral: Better to trust a good friend who speaks softly than some virtual actors low on gyaan and high on vitriol.
Stop putting extra words into RBI Gov's mouth and misstate what he said.

Here is the direct link to governors interview from RBI
https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/conten ... 732484.mp3

Listen to the question at 14:30. He said "Withdrawal of legal tender status doesn't extinguish anything on RBI's balance sheet and therefore there is no implication for balance sheet as of now. The question does not arise as of now". The question was repeated and his answer was "Not just by withdrawal of legal tender status".

Nowhere he said it can't be done.

Quite right.

Nowhere does RBI says it won't be done. He is careful in adding "as of now" meaning he is making no promises and the option is ALWAYS open.

1. The option is with the GOI and not the RBI and an ordinance is all that is needed.
2. It has been done before and can be done again.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 08 Dec 2016 12:03

If all the 15 lakh crore is coming back, then all black is now in banking system. I have been hearing grapevine that Mulayam has converted most of his stash by distributing it to his sarpanchs who in turn have distributed to 100s of villagers. With the kind of muscle power they have it is not going to be tough to recover their money.

It is going to be very tough to prosecute the BM hoarders. But the good part is I think the banks have been recapitalised and there will be no substantial black money left in the system.

The real hit will be his actions on benami property and gold. Benami property is easy to unearth, just ask every property owner to come with their ITRs of last 5 years and see if they have the wherewithal to purchase the property. A 10 crore piece of land purchased by a policewala in the name of his bil who is a clerk will not fly at all. Gold is harder to hit though, will they search bank lockers? What about the rampant bribery and corruption in the IT department? It is going to be christmas time for them.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 08 Dec 2016 12:08

Here's a counterpoint to the "uh oh! RBI will exchange all of the 15.5 lakh crores" point being made...

Maybe we have been overestimating the size of the black money economy all along? Just maybe we aren't as terribly corrupt as we thought? Maybe most people can explain their cash holdings or are willing to come forward to whiten it with a penalty so they can sleep better in the night? This should be a good thing, no?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Dec 2016 12:13

yensoy wrote:Maybe most people can explain their cash holdings or are willing to come forward to whiten it with a penalty so they can sleep better in the night? This should be a good thing, no?

That is the only excuse which I can think at this moment, when the media (and anti-Modi group) goes on saying that RBI is now expecting most of the money to come back to the accounts. And the other reasoning can be that, once the money comes into the account it becomes accountable, and the BM hoarders would be identified and punished. The media at present is just saying that the exercise failed, because GoI expects lots of people to burn their ill gotten wealth, but it did not happen that way.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Dec 2016 12:15

One test of people standing by NM on this DeMo drive would be when some big political fishes land up in Jail (off course they will get bail and eventually released thanks to 'whatsapp group') for BM and hoarding of cash.
Throwing some unknown Bizman under the bus while the political class/Babudom enjoys in shade with no repercussion would be a let down especially when the general perception is that Political class is the main consumer of black money.

The jury is still out on whether this DM drive is a political master for BJP stroke since Akali Dal will lose Punjab election for sure (and presstitutes will act as if NaMo himself has lost Punjab election) while UP is still too chaotic to be called.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Dec 2016 12:22

Chandragupta wrote:If all the 15 lakh crore is coming back, then all black is now in banking system. I have been hearing grapevine that Mulayam has converted most of his stash by distributing it to his sarpanchs who in turn have distributed to 100s of villagers. .

So finally he turned 'samajwadi',

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 08 Dec 2016 12:58

parashara wrote:A few days back I asked a question on this forum:
"Can the RBI erase the liability equivalent of the unsurfaced BM and transfer that as dividend to the govt?"

A banking tech friend of mine said:
"Nonsense - can't be done"

A couple armchair "finance whizzes" on this forum jumped in aggressively yelling about why my friend was dead wrong and why this was perfectly doable - see messages from Suraj et. al.

Turns out my friend was absolutely right.

And also looks like the amount of this liability is in the tune of 1.5L Cr.

Read the Urjit Patel uvaacha below:
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... eststories

Moral: Better to trust a good friend who speaks softly than some virtual actors low on gyaan and high on vitriol.

Not sure about the tone of the post - why have a chip on your shoulder about something someone else told you! Heck, it ain't even your learned opinion. Anyways, I don't have a dog in that race. Would suggest not to get into this Upper Hand mode -- typically ends in a brawl.

Had a semi-decent exp at ICICI. Cash refill came in at 11am, but lines were orderly and neat and my total wait time at the branch itself was only 15-20 minutes in all. Only 2k notes available but they were processing transactions at less than one a minute. Pretty neat. Also managed to deposit old notes without any wait time. The real pain in the butt is getting these split into smaller denominations and going out there and spending them!
PS: Several folks there said smaller denoms are being pushed to PSU Banks first, and the lines have dried up so cash can be withdrawn in 15 mins! Is that true?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 08 Dec 2016 13:03

Chandragupta wrote:It is going to be very tough to prosecute the BM hoarders. But the good part is I think the banks have been recapitalised and there will be no substantial black money left in the system.

Actually if the banks accept more deposits from customers(as is happening due to DeMo), the CAR will become more low.
So the need for GOI to recapitalize the PSU banks will onlee increase.
May be GOI should use any windfall accruing via DeMo to do just that as the first measure.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Dec 2016 13:08

Yes PSU banks are getting new ₹100, ₹50, ₹20 ₹10 notes now.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 08 Dec 2016 14:18

All you cheer leading girls beware ! Initial support and euphoria is wearing off and mood at ground is slowly turning into irritation and anger.

It doesn't help, that the banks themselves (corrupt lot) helped launder money and in the process siphoned off liquidity. They are still doing so.
It doesn't help, that the cattle class is unwilling to get into the formal banking system.
2000 Rs. is big joke. No rational explanation for it, except that it is helping the thieves to rebuild their war chest.
It doesn't help that UPI is non-functional. Still born. Can't expect anything else if designed by committee.
It doesn't help, that well educated, well paid pensioners aren't willing to mend their ways. Single largest nuisance group.

That said, this is going all the way like the EPF fiasco.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2016 14:47

SRoy wrote:All you cheer leading girls beware !

Was that required in making your view/opinions known? Does that help in making logical posts?

I would think that it would be the fastest way down name calling rabbit hole.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 08 Dec 2016 15:00

That was in jest. Did I name anyone?

Please flip back few pages. I'm one of those with clear and unequivocal support.
But doesn't mean I endorse the way it is implemented, nor do I agree with lot of people that are singing praises without any idea what's going on at ground level.
It is the lower classes that change their colour of flag for few crumbs and loaves. Not us. We will bear the burnt of adverse political fallout.

Too many people living in ivory towers. BTW, no opinions expressed. Facts as on ground presented.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Dec 2016 15:40

What is happening on the Co-operative bank front? Eerie silence from Kerala as well. Off course some "online news portals" reporting about "alleged black money" hoarded in co-operative banks.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Dec 2016 15:44

district co-operative banks have been resuscitated by nabard.

nabard has claimed that all a/c's with dist cooperative banks have KYC and agri credit is genuine. Case pending in supreme court. Centre's stand is diluted now.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 08 Dec 2016 15:54

SRoy wrote:That was in jest. Did I name anyone?

Please flip back few pages. I'm one of those with clear and unequivocal support.
But doesn't mean I endorse the way it is implemented, nor do I agree with lot of people that are singing praises without any idea what's going on at ground level.
It is the lower classes that change their colour of flag for few crumbs and loaves. Not us. We will bear the burnt of adverse political fallout.

Too many people living in ivory towers. BTW, no opinions expressed. Facts as on ground presented.

This forum has become an echo chamber. Any criticism or questions are drowned out and only praise is allowed. Talk about living in ivory towers.

I just came back from the bank hoping to withdraw some money but they had no cash. Everybody in the queue was angry and abusing the banks and the PM.

Either BRF accept the ground realities or it is going to be another India shining moment for us.

It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.

Also another tidbit : Muslims are going around Hindu trader hubs and offering flat rate of 15% for them to launder their BM through their bank accounts. It is a windfall for them, they are very confident that IT or Law enforcement can't lay a finger on them and if they try, 'hum dekh lenge sabko'.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 08 Dec 2016 15:57

District cooperative banks are for all intents and purposes like scheduled PSU banks. As they are promoted and supported by state cooperative department.w with a 3 tier structure managed by the apex society.

They will have all the KYC norms met.

It is the other types of cooperative banks that are deficient in KYC norms.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Dec 2016 16:15

habal wrote:district co-operative banks have been resuscitated by nabard.

What about primary cooperative societies/banks? The maximum deposits seems to be held by them. Yes, even I was reading about the NABARD report whiich the district co-operative banks are planning to use as evidence favouring them. But don't these primary cooperative banks have accounts in district co-operative banks? In that case what would be the KYC documents they would have given? Because here, there is no point in using a KYC to identify the primary cooperative society which made huge deposits, the tax folks needs to go one level deep to know who had accounts in those primary cooperative societies.

Pratyush wrote:It is the other types of cooperative banks that are deficient in KYC norms.

To be quite honest, Kerala media has been trying to deliberately down play the the three tier structure. Some of their reports tend to confuse the reader that there is only one type of cooperative bank, and they are all KYC compliant. The state and district co-operative banks work under RBI guide lines, which I feel every one knowns now and would agree. But when it comes to the primary cooperative socities ("banks"??) people against demonitisation becomes all wishy-washy in their responses.

Chandragupta wrote:It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.

I think that even in the forum, there are people who have become skeptical about the success of the demonitisation drive. With news reports coming about people converting 200 crores worth of old currency to new one (Janardhan Reddy & a driver's suicide news item), and the RBI officer's statement of most of the money coming back for sure have many people change their opinion. Again, if the whole thing now depends upon the inititive, honesty and hard work of the IT departments then that again makes the whole move slightly sloppy.

On the queue front, I now see more ATMs having queues (20-30 people per ATM) which also means that more ATMs have cash available with them. As for me, my ray of hope (that the drive would succeed) is that media has never been pro-BJP and pro-Modi during all this while. Hence their reports (or worse still; their interpretations) also need not be taken at 100% facevalue.

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Dec 2016 16:21

you see dist coop banks have said they do not have revenue to install & maintain Finacle, but they can provide all details of a/c holders to Court.

but if you ask these co-ops for details of any one a/c, they can easily spend days searching for it. They are also very careless in maintaining & filing records of individual a/c holders. So next time someone approaches them, they will think thrice before seeking details.

I maintain one such a/c in urban co-op for a senior citizen widower relative, the coop bank keeps asking me for photos/KYC every 6 months because they lost previous photo/KYC. So they have no system of filing.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Dec 2016 16:48

habal wrote:you see dist coop banks have said they do not have revenue to install & maintain Finacle, but they can provide all details of a/c holders to Court.

Why to the court? Any idea? Why can't they pass it onto RBI or the tax departments? This also makes me think in an another angle. If the demonitsation drive does not do really well (i.e money laundering did succeed), then can the central government use the "accounts in co-operative society/banks" as a good stick to make the opposition rabble rousers fall in line? This is with the impression that lots of politicians do have un accounted wealth stored in these type of banks (!?).

habal · Post by **habal** » 08 Dec 2016 16:55

they will forward it to nabard, who will form enterprise CBS solution just for those coops that cannot afford commercial grade CBS. Then tax depts can have ready access to all coop a/c's. Wipro, TCS in charge of this nabard coop as per reports.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2016 16:58

I have no idea what the GOI is planning but here is a doable template.

As soon as the DeMo window is closed FREEZE all co-op bank/bank account for CASH withdrawal. This can be done without even an offical order by just denying them cash. Anyone that needs CASH has to identify his/her account and supply KYC before allowing even a single rupee cash. Folks are free to use cheque/online transfer/Card/other digital means to move money which will make it traceable..

That will freeze all the money at the bank in non-KYC accounts till eternity. Let folks who have *claims* on any such account supply KYC or move court. Just like benami property benami accounts/deposits can be recovered by forcing owners to come forward or loose the money in their unclaimed account(s).

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Dec 2016 17:49

Chandragupta wrote: Either BRF accept the ground realities or it is going to be another India shining moment for us.

It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.

Also another tidbit : Muslims are going around Hindu trader hubs and offering flat rate of 15% for them to launder their BM through their bank accounts. It is a windfall for them, they are very confident that IT or Law enforcement can't lay a finger on them and if they try, 'hum dekh lenge sabko'.

India is a hu-uge country. My experiences are different from yours. What part of this nation are you referring to?

A minor titbit on the bit about "ground reality". Money coming into the banking system does not become white. Not sure why this idea is being spread by parliamentarians down to educated Indians

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2016 17:54

I has this on my list for a long time but never got around to post it. It is old in that it is dated 28-Nov-2016. Hopefully it hasn't been posted before.

https://www.valueresearchonline.com/sto ... ?str=32522
The real impact of demonetisation

Moreover, there will be many positives, even immediate ones. I have already seen, first-hand, a sharp shift in previously cash-based businesses to above-board, tax-paid transactions. The real success of demonetisation, and the majority of its economic impact, will come not from the 'unearthing' of stocked black money, but from a change in future behaviour. People work in cash, earn profits in cash and accumulate wealth in black because so far, this has been effectively a riskless option. This is no longer true--and that's the real change. For the first time, there is real danger and real unpredictability in continuing to do so.

Those whose black wealth comes from bribery and other crimes are a separate class but as far as real business-owners are concerned, their response is very different. Over the last fortnight, I've personally interacted with a large number who I know personally and they've all said that they are converting their businesses to all white. Not a single one has had any moral epiphany, they're not doing this because it's the right thing. Instead, they've all said that cash is just too risky now because you don't know what Modi could do next. If you are doing business in cash, you can feel the fear in your heart that here's a determined, dangerous and unpredictable opponent who has shown that there is no limit to how far he is willing to go. And that's the real determinant of what the economic impact of demonetisation will be.

raj-senthil · Post by **raj-senthil** » 08 Dec 2016 17:54

Sorry if already posted
100 kilos gold and Rs 90 crore recovered in Chennai IT raids

Out of the Rs 90 crore seized, Rs 70 crore was in new currency notes. Sleuths from the IT department carried out raids in eight locations across Chennai In one of the biggest hauls post demonetisation, Income Tax officials seized Rs 90 crore and approximately 100 kgs gold.

Multiple teams of IT officials raided 8 places across Chennai unearthing illegally amassed wealth. Out of the Rs 90 crore seized, Rs 70 crore was in new currency notes. Sleuths from the IT department carried out raids in eight locations including residences and offices belonging to three businessmen in Chennai's T Nagar and Anna Nagar. The businessmen identified as Shekhar Reddy, Srinivas Reddy and Prem are accused of possessing unaccounted wealth. The trio have also been accused of running a money laundering racket.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Dec 2016 17:57

Once the GOI/IT department's analysis of data picks up speed we can expect to hear more such raids and busts. This is just the beginning phase. My guess would be that the whole of next year would be filled with such chota-mota news.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Dec 2016 18:05

shiv wrote:
Chandragupta wrote: Either BRF accept the ground realities or it is going to be another India shining moment for us.

It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.

Also another tidbit : Muslims are going around Hindu trader hubs and offering flat rate of 15% for them to launder their BM through their bank accounts. It is a windfall for them, they are very confident that IT or Law enforcement can't lay a finger on them and if they try, 'hum dekh lenge sabko'.
India is a hu-uge country. My experiences are different from yours. What part of this nation are you referring to?

A minor titbit on the bit about "ground reality". Money coming into the banking system does not become white. Not sure why this idea is being spread by parliamentarians down to educated Indians

Agreed this is a huge country and things might be different , But I have heard similar stories from financial capital , Personally heard from Business men and people in know Black Money to Gold conversion done with 50 % premium , In Cash 40 % in Black to white via bank transfer 30 % , Builder Lobby gave it to Politician who have used in recent election ......I think the big guy have figured out how to take care of the black money some might have just disclosed it too , .........its the small to medium size businessmen and people in similar wealth bracket have gone for such conversion at a cost ......Middle Class and Poor People have end up standing in queues

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Dec 2016 18:07

Reports say that 11 lakh cr have come into the banking system, and about 4 lakh cr are still "missing"

But RBI has issued about 1/3-1/4th that amount do far - i.e. 4 lakh cr. So our cash economy such as is, is currently chugging along with the 14% that was in notes less than 500 - plus this extra 4 lakh cr issued by RBI

I don't know if the RBI has issued a "break up" of how much it has issued in 2000, how much in 500 and how much in smaller notes. I for one have not seen a new 500 note yet. Clearly the amount that was sucked up in Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes is not going to come out in 2000 and 500 notes. A proportion of that will be in 100, 50 and 20. The difficulty of carrying anything more than a lakh or two in such notes will force some small to medium spenders to change to e-money.

Of course I cannot compare my own life and experiences with others - because we have drawn a total of Rs 10,000 in one month - of which we had 4 x 2000 notes and one set of Rs 50 notes. Most of my dealings have been in e-money where there are no ceilings set. I have received change for 2000 freely and cheerfully from various outlets. Two withdrawals were done in a bank queue with a wait of less than 10 minutes.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 08 Dec 2016 18:11

Bengal Tiger has roared :

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 873184.cms

President Pranab Mukherjee blasts a disrupted Parliament: 'For God's sake, do your job'

NEW DELHI: President Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday ripped into Parliamentarians over the continued logjam in both Houses and said "For God's sake, do your job."

Ever since the winter session of Parliament began on November 16, both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha have been repeatedly adjourned, as both ruling and opposition MPs have squabbled over PM Narendra Modi's November 8 decision to scrap high value currency notes.

The President is having none of it.

"For God's sake, do your job. You are meant to transact business in Parliament. Disruption of Parliament is not acceptable at all," Pranab Mukherjee said.

Delivering the Defence Estate Day Lecture 2016 on "Reforms for a stronger Democracy", the President said people send their representatives to Parliament to work for the country and not to agitate.He said he was concerned that disruption of parliamentary work has become a "practice".

"Dharnas can be organised anywhere else," he said, and urged MPs to debate and discuss issues of public importance in Parliament.

Just yesterday, BJP stalwart LK Advani, too, criticised MPs for holding up Pariamentary proceedings.

Proceedings in the Lok Sabha were disrupted for the 15th consecutive day today as the Opposition continued to engage in sloganeering demanding a debate on demonetisation under a rule that entails voting.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 08 Dec 2016 18:12

shiv wrote:
Chandragupta wrote: Either BRF accept the ground realities or it is going to be another India shining moment for us.

It seems like all black money has been laundered. And it is going to be a tough mountain to climb for the Government to try and get BM in the net.

Also another tidbit : Muslims are going around Hindu trader hubs and offering flat rate of 15% for them to launder their BM through their bank accounts. It is a windfall for them, they are very confident that IT or Law enforcement can't lay a finger on them and if they try, 'hum dekh lenge sabko'.
India is a hu-uge country. My experiences are different from yours. What part of this nation are you referring to?

A minor titbit on the bit about "ground reality". Money coming into the banking system does not become white. Not sure why this idea is being spread by parliamentarians down to educated Indians

if businesses are audited, a record of their bank deposits are automatically requested by the auditor. these deposits are matched against revenue, discrepancies are then investigated. business petty cash should be reconciled periodically when it is replenished and a record kept for audit.

receivables are aged and randomly sampled and payables checked for authorization and comparison to the bank check register.

the tax man cometh.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Dec 2016 18:14

pankajs wrote:As soon as the DeMo window is closed FREEZE all co-op bank/bank account for CASH withdrawal. This can be done without even an offical order by just denying them cash. Anyone that needs CASH has to identify his/her account and supply KYC before allowing even a single rupee cash. Folks are free to use cheque/online transfer/Card/other digital means to move money which will make it traceable..

Then some thing similar is already happening. Tamil Nadu govt. have already informed the account holders in primary co-operative societies to open an account in a District Co.Op bank with a proper KYC. And then some how the accounts are all linked up and can be operated, with all the restrictions which are now set on a normal bank account. Kerala Govt. is working on allowing people to open a "mirror account" (of their account in Primary Co.op) in a district Co.Op, which would enable people to withdraw money (weekly limit Rs.24,000).

But I really don't know how robust are the district co.op banks' KYC document keeping is. These banks are all infested with local politicians, and only have varying degrees of computerization. I don't think very many even have a small network of ATMs or encourage facilities like NEFT & RTGS. They also may not be really "rich" to afford all this.

That will freeze all the money at the bank in non-KYC accounts till eternity. Let folks who have *claims* on any such account supply KYC or move court.

The primary co.op banks do NOT operate under RBI rules. Today they are unable to transact, because of them being denied any new currency. So if the freeze is lifted, there are high chances that these Primary Co.Op banks would once again operate the same way they worked earlier. Hap hazard documentation and being of good help to black money racketeers.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 08 Dec 2016 18:15

Will a Modi-style clampdown on black money work in Russia?

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/tatar_straits/ ... sia_646575

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 08 Dec 2016 18:20

Austin wrote: Agreed this is a huge country and things might be different , But I have heard similar stories from financial capital , Personally heard from Business men and people in know Black Money to Gold conversion done with 50 % premium , In Cash 40 % in Black to white via bank transfer 30 % , Builder Lobby gave it to Politician who have used in recent election ......I think the big guy have figured out how to take care of the black money some might have just disclosed it too , .........its the small to medium size businessmen and people in similar wealth bracket have gone for such conversion at a cost ......Middle Class and Poor People have end up standing in queues

It is my view that the middle and poorer people were also black money hoarders of a smaller degree. It is not as though the latter were squeaky clean while the former are guilty. Most are guilty - but the bigger guys have taken a bigger hit. The smaller guys (middle and poor) have got a Rupee for Rupee conversion by waiting in queue because they were told beforehand that black money up to 2.5 lakhs esp in female hands, was white. In fact that is what was intended.

The conversion rates you mention above actually amounts to a huge hit considering that the converted cash value is coming back into the system. I don't know if you have ever played with audio files in a sound editor. You get a sound graph with peaks (loudest sounds). When you edit out noise or reduce amplitude - all the peaks get smaller. Every single "peak"/stash of black hoarded cash has now become smaller or converted out of liquid cash into something that will have to get reconverted later into cash if needed.

At this point in time anyone who exchanged black cash for gold/jewellery will not be able to get that converted back easily because of a shortage of notes. What happens to them later needs to be seen

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 08 Dec 2016 18:24

All this money coming into the banking system, Would most of it not fled as soon as people are able to withdraw. Would not we go back to hoarding money in small denomination or convert it into gold to hedge the bets.
Why do we think that there is a huge bonanza waiting for RBI and banks at the end of this rainbow if the money eventually goes back to the owners of the Money and not stay in bank.

Why do we think that this is end of BM as we know it. What stops hoarders and corrupts to start the journey once again. How this drive has ended Black Money, someone pls explain.

PS: Lines are back but this time in the bank premise for small denomination notes and not at ATMs.ATMs no longer disperse Rs.100 note anymore atleast in B'lore.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 08 Dec 2016 18:38

VikasRaina wrote:All this money coming into the banking system, Would most of it not fled as soon as people are able to withdraw. Would not we go back to hoarding money in small denomination or convert it into gold to hedge the bets.

Most of it would flee, but I feel by then the IT departments would also start their investigations on the deposit. One thing, which I feel GoI or RBI may do is to set a pretty decent (not Rs.24,000) of withdrawal limit for every account. Say for a normal account (based on inflow/outflow) increase the withdrawal limits to say 1 or 2 lakhs. But any thing and beyond would be "locked in", would get released once the IT folks are satisfied.

Why do we think that this is end of BM as we know it. What stops hoarders and corrupts to start the journey once again. How this drive has ended Black Money, someone pls explain.

I don't think any one has said that this is the end of Black money in India, and the menace would not come back again. This is only a temporary step in the long term journey to curtail the black economy. People who have hoarded so much bags of currency, did not do it over night. They took years to stash so much funds, and yet in one day they were all asked to deposit the same and then prove how they managed to get it. If you ask me, black money generation would start again; the moment some one pays a bribe to a government official. But will that government official get a huge chunk of black money in quick time, that I doubt it.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 08 Dec 2016 18:53

shiv wrote:There must have been thousands of government corporation employees and water/electricity etc depts with stashes from 50 lakhs to 5 crores.

Yes agreed. Infact in the previous IDS scheme that ended around 67k cr were declared. IIRC I read somewhere that about 21k people contributed to this figure ( about 3cr per person ). So what you say makes sense.

However I think this changes the tempo of the game. It stops being a question of 4s and 6s. Instead it becomes a game of singles - fast, easy, sharp, cheeky singles but singles nonetheless. And atleast I think thats politically not good.

Its a matter of perception as Rudradev so eloquently states. Nobody for eg remembers Gambhir's innings from WC 2012. Only Dhoni's 6.

Politically a best case outcome would be that atleast 2-3 lac cr doesnt come in. I personally still have hopes that that would indeed be the case. If it turns out that way i think everybody can declare a victory and move on. But if chota-mota people start getting harassed it becomes very difficult politically.