Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 14 Dec 2016 06:46

Exactly Kashi ji,

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Dec 2016 07:09

ShauryaT wrote:I know the type of responses that will dominate such a post, but it is important to raise the banner of a policy disagreement without recourse to partisan positions.

The main criterion by which to judge economic policies and institutions is whether they advance human freedom. On this standard, demonetisation is an unarguably regressive move

Among the many curious things about demonetisation is the ardent defence of this exercise by economists and economic commentators sympathetic to the government. It is as though the currency swap is being accompanied by an ideology swap.

This is how articles by the Wendy Doniger/Arundhati Roy ilk start.

With rhetoric - a strawman that is sanctimoniously set up as a truism, and since what follows does not correspond to that truism - it must be untruth.

First:

The main criterion by which to judge economic policies and institutions is whether they advance human freedom.

This is called: petitio principii - a circular argument where the conclusion is made as the premise. "Demonetization restricts freedom. Freedom is the most important thing, Therefore demonetization restricts freedom". This is laughable tripe.

Freedom is a buzzword of a concept that is supposed to be extended without limits. How about freedom for pedophiles? Is that hot a human freedom? Does the restriction of pedophilia not retard human freedom? Freedom to hoard black money? The author of the article is high on rhetoric.

The next sentence:

It is as though the currency swap is being accompanied by an ideology swap.

Here the author makes the accusation that commentators sympathetic to the move are motivated by ideology and not economics. This is what we would call as ad hominem on the forum

(Corrected a quote that I had posted wrongly - replaced with correct quote)
I could say:

Shaurya was dropped on his head as a baby - which would explain his need to blah blah blah

This accusation carries as much weight as the one made in the article.

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 14 Dec 2016 07:18

ShauryaT wrote:Among the many curious things about demonetisation is the ardent defence of this exercise by economists and economic commentators sympathetic to the government. It is as though the currency swap is being accompanied by an ideology swap.

I could argue the opposite with the same facts:

It is the economists and the economic commentators that are NOT sympathetic to the govt spreading conspiracy theories and making false statements as truths (aka Goebel style propagandu).

The economists who are not of the sikular persuasions may just be stating facts and conclusions that are realistic, but they appear to be ideological to a sikular, because in a convoluted world of a sikular, facts and logic have no place when compared to ideology.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Dec 2016 07:18

Thanks for the pisko deconstruction shiv.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 14 Dec 2016 07:33

criticism-of-pm-modi-s-notes-ban-cockeyed-economist-jagdish-bhagwati

The government's demonetisation drive has paralysed parliament and divided public opinion. Eminent economist Jagdish Bhagwati has, however, given a thumbs up to notes ban and called the criticism of it "cockeyed". Speaking exclusively to NDTV from Columbia University, Prof Bhagwati said that people are only facing "transitional' hardships and asked the critics to stop "shooting from the hip".

Prof. Bhagwati seems to be of the opinion that the black to white conversion is doing some income redistribution, where the poor are benefitting in the process. He is not too worried about the laundering aspect as some of it lands in the poor folks account. Do not know what to make of a policy where people have tried to redistribute wealth by direct or indirect force of the state. Our first PM JLN also tried this with the Zamindari act hailed as a bold move for its times, its results were not too great. The state with the most success with this forced land redistribution and other land "reforms" was West Bengal. It ruined its economy in the process. Will force work in India in this realm is an open question.

One thing is for sure. Most of the notes are coming back. How many take advantage of the IDS-2 50% scheme is something to be watched, hope it does better than the previous one. How far will the government go in the cat and mouse game after Jan 1 is to be watched, for it will determine many things between the state and holders of wealth. Will this move be over with the government claiming victory and the opposition decrying as is its wont, or will the saga continue?

Have to say for a so called right wing government, income redistribution does not sound like a right wing policy. The answers of the right wing are usually vested in trickle down and/or lifting the poor - not in a transfer of wealth. Great politics and populism is usually not great economics. Time will tell and soon enough on where this is headed.

PS: Not responding to the responses, simply goes back and forth and no value added.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Dec 2016 07:59

The difference between the abolition of the zamindari system and DeMo is that the state is NOT redistributing money like they did with land. The black marketers are THEMSELVES redistributing money in an effort to launder it; the poor who don't hand back fresh cash are just refusing to play ball. Are the poor committing a crime too here ? Sure. And the state does not care. The overriding principle of criminal prosecution is to go for the big fishes.

One can argue that government 'compelled' them to do this. Sure. Compelled them to commit a crime to hide another crime. That'll get them lots of sympathy.

The black market guy can keep all his money, less the tax applied on it. But no, they go out of their way to find so called 'mules' or 'poor', and then people have the chutzpah to call it 'income redistribution'. Sorry, it's actually called 'finding accessories towards your crime'.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Dec 2016 07:59

ANI ‏@ANI_news 7h7 hours ago
Thane(Maharashtra): Crime Branch arrested three persons with new notes worth Rs 1.4 crores

astal · Post by **astal** » 14 Dec 2016 08:06

Regarding income redistribution.

All taxation is income redistribution. The demonetization exercise has two goals. Reduce tax evasion and temporarily halt the menace of counterfeit money. There may be some redistribution of income from tax evading criminals to the state either due to non deposit or due to 50 % tax applied when sources cannot be reconciled. This is the short term impact.

Over the next few years, RBI/IT dept will have better information how much money citizens actually make. This will increase actual taxation for evaders but may result in lower tax rates/taxes for non evaders. Instead of lowering tax rates, the government could stimulate demand with the extra taxes that are accrued. This would be 'redistributive"

Until we know how the additional income will be spent, looking at this from a right wing left wing perspective is speculation.

astal · Post by **astal** » 14 Dec 2016 08:07

Oh and abolition of zamindari was confiscation of legitimate assets. Here only money from tax evasion will be confiscated.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Dec 2016 08:14

Seizures news
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... s-4425867/

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Dec 2016 08:50

Kashi wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:Even if they did, the deposit slip has to filled with denominations and quantity of each denomination, so the bank employees would be caught.
Precisely. The deposit slip must indicate the quantities of each denomination such as 5x1000, 10x500 etc. The main part of the slip is detached and retained by the bank while the customer/depositor retains the smaller stub, which too retains the info.

Unless there are electronic records that someone in a remote office can audit, the paper trail doesn't mean much; local auditors can be suborned.

I agree that the leakage can't be much without raising the risk of detection too high.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Dec 2016 08:56

SaiK wrote:
chetak wrote:Demonetisation: Corrupt Deal Disrupted Printing of Rs 500 Notes

This rot is sooooooo deeeeeep! jee it is like one of those zombie movie, and the zombies here are the kala walas.

what about the rot here??

There are two other cases of irregularities against Rana, investigated by the CBI, which are related to the procurement of the KBA-Giori-supplied machine and the use of an Arabian security thread in the production of Rs 10 notes. While the CBI held Rana guilty, he was let off with warnings by present Finance Minister Arun Jaitley

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 14 Dec 2016 09:09

A_Gupta wrote:Unless there are electronic records that someone in a remote office can audit, the paper trail doesn't mean much; local auditors can be suborned.

I agree that the leakage can't be much without raising the risk of detection too high.

You are right, electronic records are a must. The usual procedure is that once a deposit has been received in this way, it must be manually entered into the electronic records (computer) by the cashier/operator.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Dec 2016 09:32

ShauryaT wrote: One thing is for sure. Most of the notes are coming back. How many take advantage of the IDS-2 50% scheme is something to be watched, hope it does better than the previous one. How far will the government go in the cat and mouse game after Jan 1 is to be watched,

PS: Not responding to the responses, simply goes back and forth and no value added.

"Back and forth" with no value added is absolutely correct even of the quoted sentence above

But it seems to me that there is a naive, child-like mental picture in the minds of article writers that was evoked by demonetization.Let me explain

When demonetization was announced, a whole lot of people including many article writers whose works I read today seemed to think that there was X amount in hoarded cash that would never come back into the system because the hoarders would be too scared to show that they had hoarded money. So the return of the cash into banks is being interpreted in two ways:
1. That there was not much black hoarded cash
2. That it has all been safely changed to white

What is naive and child-like about about this is that wealthy people who hoard cash will not run scared and avoid declaring their money. They will do everything in their power to get that money exchanged. So what demonetization did is not a mere static binary where
1. Legitimate money comes into banks
2. Illegitimate money remains out of circulation giving a "windfall"

What demonetization did was to cause a massive and sudden spike in black transactions. The very thing that demonetization was accused as not being able to prevent was sparked off - but under the watchful eyes of intel agencies. Every phone call to known centers of money exchange will have been monitored and every spike in bank deposits would have triggered an alarm as hoarders scrambled to use available routes to launder cash.

The available routes were announced before hand
1. 4500 exchange at bank per day per person
2. Upto 2.5 lakh deposit in women's accounts
3. Upto 50000 in Jan Dhan

That aside every bundle of notes leaving RBI would have had serial numbers recorded - i.e serial nos A to C bound for Bengaluru, Kerala, D to F to Mumbai etc. So all seizures of new notes will have a clear indicator of source of leak.

What is being monitored closely now are the spike in phone calls, emails and bank transfers. Most of us will know that every bank was instructed to install CCTV cameras. Banks where the camera mysteriously "stops working" just when huge cash transactions were done will put all the bank employees under the scanner.

Should be a fun 3 months ahead - with just days left for the end of the year

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 14 Dec 2016 10:33

Del duplicate

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 14 Dec 2016 10:38

200 raids a month according to RnDTV headline today. If each raid nets a paltry 1cr that's a lot of cr in a month.

Also Delhi police found 3cr in old notes bound for Bombay.

Imagine if delhi corrupt need to send money to Bombay for laundering means they are desperate, fearful, having a high BP, and ready for a cardiac arrest. It would be great if some get cremated in their own bundle of notes.

I like the smiles on the IT guys

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 14 Dec 2016 11:14

Suraj wrote:The article claims Modi promised to increase the exchange limit in his original speech. Yet there's no such promise in that speech. Nor does the RBI press release make any promise it broke. You can continue to exchange old money for new.

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016 ... pee-notes/

7. For your immediate needs, you can go to any bank, head post office or sub post office, show your identity proof like Aadhaar card, voter card, ration card, passport, PAN card or other approved proofs, and exchange your old 500 or 1,000 rupee notes for new notes.

8. From 10th November till 24th November the limit for such exchange will be 4,000 rupees. From 25th November till 30th December, the limit will be increased.

You can also listen to PM's speech on youtube towards the last 10-15 mins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJYFE59rLhM

Further, where's the proof that non-customers are mules ?

Sir you can google for "cash mules" and "money mules" and you will find plenty of references. You said your father and his retiree friends are in India. Ask them. Its a well known fact. In one of the press conferences Shaktikanta (?) Das also mentioned it - i think he used the term "certain unscrupulous elements".

The closure of cash for cash exchange is good policy.

Thats besides the point. The point was that there are scalable models for BM converters. The India Today sting further proves another way.

And coming back to Chandragupta's point, the big guys have their stuff fixed, and the only people who would bear the brunt of "knock on door" will be chota-mota people.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 14 Dec 2016 11:28

Kashi wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:Even if they did, the deposit slip has to filled with denominations and quantity of each denomination, so the bank employees would be caught.
Precisely. The deposit slip must indicate the quantities of each denomination such as 5x1000, 10x500 etc. The main part of the slip is detached and retained by the bank while the customer/depositor retains the smaller stub, which too retains the info.

not only deposit slip even the casher has to enter the split-up of denominations. there is a separate section for old and new 500 and 1000 notes in Finical. so I doubt it is easy to change the way you told.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 14 Dec 2016 11:38

Manish_Sharma wrote: 1. It is you who is not serious Rajesh, changing the "mulayam's money in poor mules' accounts" CHANGED TO "money exchange mules".

Sharmaji the point as i mentioned to Suraj was that there are ways that are scalable. Accounts or exchange are just different MOs. The NCP fellow caught on camera (Kanwar Pratap Singh) says payments will be in installments for eg.

2. Govt. didn't shut the scheme it was only to be until 24th of november and it completed the full term. Yes last 3-4 days it was changed to Rs. 2000/- from Rs. 4000/-

Please listen to PM's speech.

If you go to mulayam-azam belt you will see what kind of people make up their vote belt. They are the kind who won't return money even if their own father has put them in their account. Such is m-yadav votebank. Specially Rampur-Azamgarh areas.

theek hai, you can believe what you want to.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 14 Dec 2016 11:43

Not Shaurya but the "ideology" being referred to is not "hindutva" or "secularism". I think the ideology being referred to is communism/capitalism. The writer is most probably a libertarian.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Dec 2016 12:09

Why So Many Raids? Deluge Of New Notes In 200 Searches In A Month
All India | Reported by Sandeep Phukan, Tanima Biswas, Edited by Deepshikha Ghosh | Updated: December 13, 2016 22:16 IST

There have been over 200 searches across the country for black money since the notes ban and crores have been found in new 2,000-rupee notes that are not so easily available at banks and ATMs yet.

Behind the raids, say sources, is intel provided by government "informers" lurking at "strategic points" to track the movement of high currency notes. This may mean someone's watching you at a bank or a market, but sources in the Income Tax department have refused to reveal anything.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Dec 2016 12:10

fast track court needs to be setup in each zone to process these bank officials, operators and BM holders and hand out harsh sentences. destroy their future ability to run any business or stand for any office.

they are stealing the future of our children.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 14 Dec 2016 12:11

hanumadu wrote:What bills get deposited is noted in the deposit slip. Won't banks tally at the end of the day what bills came in and what were given out?

Kashi wrote:The main part of the slip is detached and retained by the bank while the customer/depositor retains the smaller stub, which too retains the info.

madhu wrote:not only deposit slip even the casher has to enter the split-up of denominations. there is a separate section for old and new 500 and 1000 notes in Finical. so I doubt it is easy to change the way you told.

Got this from SHQ, who works at a PSU bank. The new feature in Finnacle was only launched around a week and a half back. And that too it is more like a Remarks column, when the denominations are entered. RBI asked them to comply with this very strictly. But until then what ever deposits were made, their deposit slips are retained at the banks (as paper records). I don't think they can just burn them up, if they expect a raid.

But in a few cases at Karnataka, especially of the two high ranking officials caught at Bengaluru the money was syphoned off from the funds ear marked for ATMs. One of the people who were in the racket was the owner of a "security company"

which had the contract to distribute the funds to ATMs. At least in that case, senior banking staff plus this ATM cash-stuffer chap were involved. I don't know what kind of audit trail is there for cash loaded into ATMs, but my understanding is that RBI does have a tracking mechanism to know which currency wads went to which bank, and which branch. From what I could understand the failures in the banking system were 80% caused at very high level managerial posts within the bank (managers of very big branches, currency chests and even the RBI).

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 14 Dec 2016 12:41

Sachin wrote:
hanumadu wrote:What bills get deposited is noted in the deposit slip. Won't banks tally at the end of the day what bills came in and what were given out?

Kashi wrote:The main part of the slip is detached and retained by the bank while the customer/depositor retains the smaller stub, which too retains the info.

madhu wrote:not only deposit slip even the casher has to enter the split-up of denominations. there is a separate section for old and new 500 and 1000 notes in Finical. so I doubt it is easy to change the way you told.
Got this from SHQ, who works at a PSU bank. The new feature in Finnacle was only launched around a week and a half back. And that too it is more like a Remarks column, when the denominations are entered. RBI asked them to comply with this very strictly. But until then what ever deposits were made, their deposit slips are retained at the banks (as paper records). I don't think they can just burn them up, if they expect a raid.

But in a few cases at Karnataka, especially of the two high ranking officials caught at Bengaluru the money was syphoned off from the funds ear marked for ATMs. One of the people who were in the racket was the owner of a "security company" :roll: which had the contract to distribute the funds to ATMs. At least in that case, senior banking staff plus this ATM cash-stuffer chap were involved. I don't know what kind of audit trail is there for cash loaded into ATMs, but my understanding is that RBI does have a tracking mechanism to know which currency wads went to which bank, and which branch. From what I could understand the failures in the banking system were 80% caused at very high level managerial posts within the bank (managers of very big branches, currency chests and even the RBI).

Sachin, thanks for this. Reinforces my belief that mango man in India is not corrupt. It's the powerful and top level guys. And that means that the system corrupts not some inherent corruption gene in us. We reform the system and corruption can go.

Could you pls ask your SHQ - what in her view is the leakage that has happened because of this - 1 pct, 5 pct , 10 pct ? I know no one in the banking system or finance ministry or investigating agencies so some perspective from a real practioner would be very useful. I know it's a very hard question as no one knows yet but just her best guess and her sense of the situation.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 14 Dec 2016 12:46

RajeshG wrote:Not Shaurya but the "ideology" being referred to is not "hindutva" or "secularism". I think the ideology being referred to is communism/capitalism. The writer is most probably a libertarian.

RajeshG, thanks for all your posts but let's come to the main point or net net as they say in Mumbai. KItna tha ?

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 14 Dec 2016 12:49

Suraj wrote:The difference between the abolition of the zamindari system and DeMo is that the state is NOT redistributing money like they did with land. The black marketers are THEMSELVES redistributing money in an effort to launder it; the poor who don't hand back fresh cash are just refusing to play ball. Are the poor committing a crime too here ? Sure. And the state does not care. The overriding principle of criminal prosecution is to go for the big fishes.

One can argue that government 'compelled' them to do this. Sure. Compelled them to commit a crime to hide another crime. That'll get them lots of sympathy.

The black market guy can keep all his money, less the tax applied on it. But no, they go out of their way to find so called 'mules' or 'poor', and then people have the chutzpah to call it 'income redistribution'. Sorry, it's actually called 'finding accessories towards your crime'.

Suraj, the mules can kick also

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 14 Dec 2016 12:50

Nabard completes checking cooperative bank accounts in 13 districts...{in Kerala}
The primary report of the checks are expected to reach the Supreme Court through the central government
....
Primary cooperative banks in Kerala have informed Nabard that they do not have the details of depositors of the Rs1,000 crores that made its way into these banks.It is believed that Nabard officials would present this report to the Supreme Court. This report would also back the central government's stance that cooperative banks are following Know Your Customer (KYC) norms....
....
The state government is keeping its fingers crossed in the hope that the Supreme Court would not use this as the only excuse to prevent justice to cooperative banks that have 57 lakh customers in 796 branches....
---
A Malayalam article on the same online news paper, also says that in Karnataka the PWD contractor accused of laundering black money has now stated that he also helped two ministers to launder their black money. And that he has also helped four IAS officials and five IPS officials to launder their black money. Chandrakanth Ramalingam is the PWD contractor who has made this statement, and there also some documentary evidence on his computer hard disk. After the note-bandhi the maximum seizures of black money seems to have been from Karnataka state.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Dec 2016 12:56

RajeshG wrote:7. For your immediate needs, you can go to any bank, head post office or sub post office, show your identity proof like Aadhaar card, voter card, ration card, passport, PAN card or other approved proofs, and exchange your old 500 or 1,000 rupee notes for new notes.

8. From 10th November till 24th November the limit for such exchange will be 4,000 rupees. From 25th November till 30th December, the limit will be increased.

So you want the PM to keep alleged promises while people have no civic sense at all ? It cuts both ways. People with no civic sense cannot bother to open bank accounts and were impacting the efforts of those actually trying to deposit money. All news articles emphasized that exchange lines were hurting deposit lines. There are 450 million working age people, and you want PM to do something that *worsens* the lines ?

RajeshG wrote:Sir you can google for "cash mules" and "money mules" and you will find plenty of references. You said your father and his retiree friends are in India. Ask them. Its a well known fact. In one of the press conferences Shaktikanta (?) Das also mentioned it - i think he used the term "certain unscrupulous elements".

It's not a "well known fact", merely your opinion, for which you have no data. You asserted that mules dominate the deposit lines and that vast sums have been converted. Whatever significant mule business existed is dead in the water - exchanged stopped, indelible ink, and PMJDY account data shows that the use of that route is basically non-existent. And as this thread itself shows, they're finding new cash at the rate of something like 10cr/day .

RajeshG wrote:Thats besides the point. The point was that there are scalable models for BM converters. The India Today sting further proves another way.

[/quote]
So provide the data showing cash withdrawals through these 'scalable models'. RBI should have it no ? You're talking such large sums that it should surely show up in RBI data. PMJDY route obviously isn't it. That was everyone's favorite example. And yet it's not merely a matter of lack of evidence either way - there's actually evidence to contract that idea. PMJDY account data specifically shows there's not been any significant deposit-and-withdraw activity.

srinebula · Post by **srinebula** » 14 Dec 2016 13:02

Thanks for your informative posts Sachin sir.
I remember you mentioned few days back in the thread that there was no provision to record the denominations.
Within few weeks, RBI was able to coordinate and get a new feature rolled out to such large number of banks.
It is amazing to see such quick turnaround times in a complex banking system. Truly this is the elephants dancing moment that we are witnessing.

Sachin wrote:
hanumadu wrote:What bills get deposited is noted in the deposit slip. Won't banks tally at the end of the day what bills came in and what were given out?

Kashi wrote:The main part of the slip is detached and retained by the bank while the customer/depositor retains the smaller stub, which too retains the info.

madhu wrote:not only deposit slip even the casher has to enter the split-up of denominations. there is a separate section for old and new 500 and 1000 notes in Finical. so I doubt it is easy to change the way you told.
Got this from SHQ, who works at a PSU bank. The new feature in Finnacle was only launched around a week and a half back. And that too it is more like a Remarks column, when the denominations are entered. RBI asked them to comply with this very strictly. But until then what ever deposits were made, their deposit slips are retained at the banks (as paper records). I don't think they can just burn them up, if they expect a raid.

But in a few cases at Karnataka, especially of the two high ranking officials caught at Bengaluru the money was syphoned off from the funds ear marked for ATMs. One of the people who were in the racket was the owner of a "security company" which had the contract to distribute the funds to ATMs. At least in that case, senior banking staff plus this ATM cash-stuffer chap were involved. I don't know what kind of audit trail is there for cash loaded into ATMs, but my understanding is that RBI does have a tracking mechanism to know which currency wads went to which bank, and which branch. From what I could understand the failures in the banking system were 80% caused at very high level managerial posts within the bank (managers of very big branches, currency chests and even the RBI).

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Dec 2016 13:08

Sachin wrote:Nabard completes checking cooperative bank accounts in 13 districts...{in Kerala}
The primary report of the checks are expected to reach the Supreme Court through the central government
....
Primary cooperative banks in Kerala have informed Nabard that they do not have the details of depositors of the Rs1,000 crores that made its way into these banks.It is believed that Nabard officials would present this report to the Supreme Court. This report would also back the central government's stance that cooperative banks are following Know Your Customer (KYC) norms....
....
The state government is keeping its fingers crossed in the hope that the Supreme Court would not use this as the only excuse to prevent justice to cooperative banks that have 57 lakh customers in 796 branches....
---
A Malayalam article on the same online news paper, also says that in Karnataka the PWD contractor accused of laundering black money has now stated that he also helped two ministers to launder their black money. And that he has also helped four IAS officials and five IPS officials to launder their black money. Chandrakanth Ramalingam is the PWD contractor who has made this statement, and there also some documentary evidence on his computer hard disk. After the note-bandhi the maximum seizures of black money seems to have been from Karnataka state.

This is the sole congi ATM left for transactions.

if this ATM runs dry, pappu and his pals are done for.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Dec 2016 13:25

I emailed PMO again with suggestions on using Mann Ki Baat to explain demonetization and its importance in laymans terms, on telling the public to not hoard small notes, and requesting them to report daily statistics on IT raids and money found, to keep people enthusiastic about the police action.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 14 Dec 2016 13:38

Suraj wrote:I emailed PMO again with suggestions on using Mann Ki Baat to explain demonetization and its importance in laymans terms, on telling the public to not hoard small notes, and requesting them to report daily statistics on IT raids and money found, to keep people enthusiastic about the police action.

Kudos! A twitter tracker from the PMO would be fun but targeted at a very select audience. Just prachaar through regional language channels would be far more effective.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 14 Dec 2016 13:39

After the note-bandhi the maximum seizures of black money seems to have been from Karnataka state.

Such has been the state of mind we were living in, as if living in the ocean of corruption, that person living in a state will claim their state will win the gold medal in corruption. I think as far as absolute size of rupee amount Maharashtra will win the gold medal because of megapolis Mumbai. But as far as corruption that's encoded in the genetics of aam police, hospital worker, rto, etc no one can top my fair state of UP.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 14 Dec 2016 13:39

Suraj wrote:I emailed PMO again with suggestions on using Mann Ki Baat to explain demonetization and its importance in laymans terms, on telling the public to not hoard small notes, and requesting them to report daily statistics on IT raids and money found, to keep people enthusiastic about the police action.

Well Done !!

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 14 Dec 2016 13:55

Don't fudge numbers: CBDT warns of strict action for changing I-T return 'drastically'

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 313_1.html

What the Watal Committee recommends for a cashless India

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 170_1.html

An independent payments regulator-the Payments Regulatory Board (PRB)- within the framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

Similar treatment for banks and non-banking entities in the payments space

Inclusion of consumer protection, data protection and privacy clauses in the existing Payment and Settlements Act. This will help users approach the regulator in cases of unauthorised and fraudulent transactions.

Aadhaar-based e-KYC to replace all existing central KYC processes. The panel has sought to make the Adhaar number central to all transactions.

24X7 operation of real-time gross settlement system (RTGS) and national electronic funds transfer (NEFT) banking services

Allowing non-bank payment service providers to have direct access to payment systems

Interoperability between banks and payment service providers to be regulated by RBI

Increase funds to promote digital payments

Levying a cash-handling charge to disincentivise cash transactions

All government payments to be made online. It has also suggested waiving customs and excise duty on parts used in micro-ATMs and point of sale machines.

SSharma · Post by **SSharma** » 14 Dec 2016 14:23

Rishi Verma wrote:
After the note-bandhi the maximum seizures of black money seems to have been from Karnataka state.
Such has been the state of mind we were living in, as if living in the ocean of corruption, that person living in a state will claim their state will win the gold medal in corruption. I think as far as absolute size of rupee amount Maharashtra will win the gold medal because of megapolis Mumbai. But as far as corruption that's encoded in the genetics of aam police, hospital worker, rto, etc no one can top my fair state of UP.

i agree, UP, my pride and joy

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 14 Dec 2016 15:05

Suraj wrote:So you want the PM to keep alleged promises while people have no civic sense at all ?

Bhai mere you claimed that PM made no such promise for which i pointed to the speech. I made no claim that PM should keep such a promise.

Whatever significant mule business existed is dead in the water - exchanged stopped, indelible ink, and PMJDY account data shows that the use of that route is basically non-existent.

Right since the exchange stopped that business doesnt exist.

So provide the data showing cash withdrawals through these 'scalable models'. RBI should have it no ?

To me the best possible data for this would be the deposit amounts. I dont know whether RBI would have that much data either to be honest. For eg Ministry of Finance white paper on BM had a hard time making an estimation about BM in the country even (altho that was in 2012). IOW if the deposits if close to total currency being replaced would mean either (a) there is no BM (b) people found their own models.

A different way to look at data for potentially scalable model is to look at the total number of accounts in India's banking system. Divide the number of accounts by 4 or 5 assuming people have more then one accounts ( avg 5 lets say ). Multiply that by 2 lacs. That is the amount potentially depositable without raising a flag. Maybe even divide that by 10 or 20 for a figure that can be used assuming its 5 or 10% of people who would participate in such a scheme. This is ofcourse just normal 2L deposit scheme. There might be others that I cant think of.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 14 Dec 2016 15:12

Akshay Kapoor wrote:KItna tha ?

Kapoor saab, With respect, there could be more then 2 sides to an issue. But it definitely is interesting that people feel that the only reason somebody might criticise notebandi would be because they have lots of maal. To each their own I guess. Last from me on this. Jai Hind.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 14 Dec 2016 15:25

Another place where a lot of old notes might be is overseas. Potential countries would be all neighbors, middle east and african countries maybe ? I know Nepal had raised the conversion issue at a high level at one point but havent heard much after that. I have also heard that in some countries in middle east some businesses do deal in INR. Does anybody have middle east experiencce ? Does anybody have any estimation on how much money that might be ?

Murugan · Post by **Murugan** » 14 Dec 2016 15:29

12.44 Lakh Crore till 10th December - RBI Dy Governor Gandhi