India-Russia: News & Analysis

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 20 Dec 2016 10:00

I believe this one is going to have repercussions. Killing an ambassador means escalation to a war like state. Whoever did this will pay in some form, that much is certain.

No fan of Putin. Just that ruskies are a whole different breed than the WKK libtards that run most of EU.

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Dec 2016 10:21

Manish_Sharma wrote:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/art ... ition.html

Invoking Syria, policeman kills Russian ambassador to Turkey

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — A Turkish policeman fatally shot Russia's ambassador to Turkey on Monday in front of a shocked gathering at a photo exhibit and then, pacing near the body of his victim, appeared to condemn Russia's military role in Syria, shouting: "Don't forget Aleppo! Don't forget Syria!"

The leaders of Turkey and Russia said the attack in Ankara, the Turkish capital, was an attempt to disrupt efforts to repair ties between their countries, which have backed opposing sides in the Syrian civil war.

An Associated Press photographer and others at the art gallery watched in horror as the gunman, who was wearing a dark suit and tie, fired at least eight shots, at one point walking around Ambassador Andrei Karlov as he lay motionless and shooting him again at close range.

The assailant, who was identified as Mevlut Mert Altintas, a 22-year-old member of Ankara's riot police squad, was later killed in a shootout with police. Three other people were wounded in the attack, authorities said.

The assassination came after days of protests by Turks angry over Russia's support for President Bashar Assad in the Syrian conflict and Russia's role in the bombardment and destruction of Aleppo, Syria's largest city.

The gunman shouted about Aleppo in Turkish, and also yelled "Allahu akbar," the Arabic phrase for "God is great," continuing in Arabic: "We are the descendants of those who supported the Prophet Muhammad, for jihad."

The attack, condemned by the White House and the United Nations, was another sign of how Turkey, a NATO member and a partner in the U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State group, is struggling to contain multiple security threats. The war in Syria has been a major problem for years, sending several million refugees into Turkey and, more recently, drawing in Turkish troops.

Turkey has become accustomed to deadly attacks — Kurdish militants claimed responsibility for Dec. 10 bombings in Istanbul that killed 44 people, many of them police.

The spectacle of 62-year-old Karlov's assassination by a member of the Turkish security forces at a photography exhibit meant to highlight Russian culture reinforced the sense of unease over the region's conflict and complex web of alliances and relationships.

It came a day before a key meeting about Syria to be held in Moscow. Those attending include the foreign and defense ministers from Turkey, an opponent of Assad, and Russia and Iran, backers of the Syrian regime.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the killing of Karlov as an attempt to damage Russia-Turkey ties "and to thwart a peace process in Syria which Russia, Turkey and Iran have been actively trying to promote."

Putin said he and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed in a phone call that Russian investigators would fly to Ankara to conduct a joint probe with their Turkish counterparts.

"We must know who was directing the killer," Putin said in televised remarks. He ordered top officials to strengthen protection of the Turkish Embassy in Moscow and asked Turkey to increase security at the Russian mission in Ankara.

In a video message shown on several Turkish TV channels, Erdogan said: "This is a provocation to damage the normalization process of Turkish-Russian relations. But both the Russian and Turkish administrations have the determination not to fall for this provocation."

Karlov was several minutes into a speech at the embassy-sponsored exhibition in Ankara when he was gunned down.

Altintas, the gunman, also fired shots in the air, sending panicked audience members running for cover, and smashed several of the framed photos hung for the exhibition. The floor was splattered with blood, and the ambassador's eye glasses lay a few feet from his body.

After shooting the ambassador, the gunman got into a 15-minute shootout with police before he was killed, Turkey's state-run Anadolu news agency reported.

The shooter's family home in the western province of Aydin was later searched and his mother, father and sister were detained, the news agency said, without citing sources. The man's house in Ankara was raided and his roommate, also a police officer, was also taken into custody, it said.

Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said Altintas, who was born in 1994, had been an officer with Ankara's riot police squad for more than two years. He did not give a motive for the attack.

"It's a tragic day in the history of our country and Russian diplomacy," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

"Ambassador Karlov has made a lot of personal contributions to the development of ties with Turkey. He has done a lot to overcome a crisis in bilateral relations," she said. "He was a man who put his heart and his soul into his job. It's a terrible loss for us and also the world."

Karlov joined the diplomatic service in 1976. He served as Russia's ambassador to Pyongyang from 2001-2006, and later worked as the chief of the Foreign Ministry's consular department. He had served as the ambassador to Turkey since 2013.

The White House condemned the assassination, saying "this heinous attack on a member of the diplomatic corps is unacceptable," President Barack Obama was briefed by his national security team while on vacation in Hawaii

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also condemned what he called a "senseless act of terror," for which "there can be no justification."

Relations between Russia and Turkey were badly strained by the downing of a Russian warplane at the Syrian border in November 2015, but Turkey's apology earlier this year helped overcome the rift. Putin and Erdogan have held several meetings in recent months and spoken frequently over the phone.

Russia and Turkey have co-sponsored the evacuation of civilians and rebels from Aleppo and also discussed the prospect of organizing a new round of peace talks in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana.

Security threats to Turkey include the Islamic State group, and which has been blamed for attacks in Turkey. Additionally, Turkish security forces and courts remain preoccupied with purging state institutions of the supporters of an exiled Islamist cleric whom the government accuses of staging a failed coup attempt in July.

the CIA at its old game again

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 20 Dec 2016 10:28

Bomber's parting gift for peace in middle east

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 20 Dec 2016 10:45

Where are all these terrorists in Syria coming from?
Are they Saudi & Pakistani nationals being shipped in by the boat load?

I just watched a few youtube clips of the fighting in Syria and death lurks on every corner. At any point if your head is visible, you are liable to be dropped by a bullet, tank shell, rocket or bomb flying in from nowhere.

I find it hard to believe any mercenary would be that motivated to fight under such dangerous circumstances just to get a paycheck from Saudi Arabia.

Who really are these so called "rebels" and are the even Syrian?

The day is not far off when one of these crackpots will blow up a nuclear reactor and start a global war.

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2016 10:48

bombet is a peace prize that keeps on giving.

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 20 Dec 2016 10:49

Neshantji,

The videos are only about "interesting" part of the war. The uninteresting part is the majority (building berms, building rats nests, bunkers, filling up VBIED with UK supplied cluster bombs etc.). Those videos wont sell on youtube, but might help future nanhas to figure out how to weld up a F-450 into an armored SVBIED and how to place the ammo for maximum carnage.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Dec 2016 10:57

I would expect Russian response would be done in measured cold calculated manner , they would wait for the investigation to get over and find out the culprit and then respond , they did the same when Russian passenger aircraft was brought down over egypt in bomb explosion and it took more than a month for them to find out how it happened and then respond , most of the western press had already name the culprit/orginisation in a day or two.

Russia has been using hitman in turkey to take out chechnian armed group http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38294204

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Dec 2016 11:23

Russian response to assassinations and the like is similar to Israelis. Covert action to track and kill everyone involved.

There were reports about 6 months ago that one of the Turkmen militia members to took down the Su-34 was killed in a car bomb in Turkey.

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 20 Dec 2016 11:25

Putin will hit hard "see-aye-yeah". This serves two purpose makes DT difficult to do puppy juppy with russkies, they will respond and will force DT to respond to that response as well they do not want Russkies to be moved from being enemy no.1. Deep state still holds cold war hang over grudges.

Secondly they remind russi's they are ready to go to their true colors (to any nadir) in their dirty games, point is what level VP is ready to go to instill fear that he has created under deep state massa from ookrane to Syria. They literally dhoti shiver but when they do this they expect VP to do same level of dirty shit(eye for an eye) he would not take that bait. He will respond at the same time it would not be seen or even clue like in this case where it is already known who is behind this.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 20 Dec 2016 11:27

But killing an ambassador is different. Even the US with its CENTCOM didn't really do much of a shock and awe after Stephens was killed in Benghazi. How Putin interprets this vis-a-vis his projection of Russian strength to his people (Russian masses) is something to be watched.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 20 Dec 2016 11:29

My sincere condolences to the ambassador's family, friends, and colleagues. What a heinous crime.

I'm surprised by some of the comments here. President Putin is not a coward. If he were, he would have abandoned the people of Crimea to Ukrainian Nazis and the people of Syria to jihadist cannibals. However, he has done neither. At the same time, he is trying his best to avoid WWIII, which would result in global nuclear destruction (including that of Russia).

Wise leaders have to balance multiple priorities and take care not to fall into traps. In the Kargil War, Prime Minister Vajpayee defeated the Pakistani invaders. However, he was careful not to cross the LOC. Why? Crossing the LOC (the de facto international border) could have been used by extra-regional powers (like the U.S.) to get involved. The U.S. would have used military force to then attack India, which would have been demonized in the Western media as the "rogue aggressor." I believe this was the Western plan all along. If it had succeeded, I suspect that Indian nuclear/missile/space labs would have been on the target list. After the 1998 nuclear tests, that was the real objective.

President Putin's ultimate goal regarding Turkey is to reduce the threat it poses to Russia. Currently, that threat is significant. That's his responsibility as the political leader of Russia. To that end, he is engaging Turkey commercially and geo-politically in an attempt to gain more influence within Turkey. Money talks, and many people are motivated by greed. Thus, the increasing Russian-Turkish business ties.

For a professional take on the assassination, I recommend reading Saker:
http://thesaker.is/a-few-initial-short- ... to-ankara/

krishna_krishna · Post by **krishna_krishna** » 20 Dec 2016 11:32

^^ You cannot compare massa to Ruskies. That case was also different that was their own doing , the people whom they prepped up went against them there was no foreign govt involvement. In this case this is direct action and Ruskies will respond in bad ass way.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 20 Dec 2016 11:34

Here is the full video clip of the murder. Caution: explicit.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4de_1482167380

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2016 11:42

there was so much provocation to reveal names of captured NATO operatives.

By announcing the names of some of the captured NATO-Israeli-GCC (perpetual wars lobby) operatives at UN, Russia/Syria threw down the gauntlet and crossed an unspoken line, and the Russian ambassador paid with his life as retribution.

Aleppo has fallen, and a real war is about to begin. Expect an ever increasing cycle of escalations.

We are all about to live in interesting times.

that CIA-prodigy Mubarak Hussain Obama is still going to have a month to get his last laugh and many innocent people are going to pay with their lives in the interim.

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 20 Dec 2016 11:49

Paul wrote:So now that HRC is gone, Putin has outlived his utility for India.

Thats your(American) view,
Indian view is, "No Russian PM will outlive his utility as long as USA exists."

kit · Post by **kit** » 20 Dec 2016 11:59

maybe the CIA wants to "prime" Trump as he takes office ..what better way to make sure he doesnt get too chummy with Putin ?

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 20 Dec 2016 12:03

A comment on RT:

Trump needs to build that wall soon, see-aay-ehs are escaping

On a serious note:

Ombaba aint a risk taker, so unless the faggy battam gang is compromised and gone fully rogue I dont know if this is really see-aaay-eh. But it could very well be a plot to drive a wedge between Putin and Trump. Trump better be very very careful if that is indeed the case, he will have a lot of spring cleaning to do.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 20 Dec 2016 12:05

^^^Saar, I live in Basaweshwaranagar, Bengaluru....not American by any stretch of imagination. Been on BRF since Kargil days

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2016 12:06

It means they more or less work on behalf of themselves for their own special interest lobbies that wield power over them.

the organization has been subverted into an international terrorist organization.
Trump will have to undertake a big purge to cleanse it thoroughly, they on other hand will try to keep him unsettled as long as possible.

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2016 12:10

the purge will see some numbers of Jason bourne type 'one-man army' operatives chased down and hunted across various world capitals. Many David Coleman Headley types exposed and their cover blown, many who lie with Islamist sympathizers and act as funds & arms conduits for the terrorists will be taken down by subterfuge. -

the generals can pick and choose their best SF personnel and turn them undercover to chase these 'soon-to-be-rogue' operatives down.

cleaning up USA is tougher than Modi's job of cleaning up India.
much tougher considering how deep their tentacles are embedded in Islamic terror worldwide.

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2016 12:30

Bob Baer again issuing dire warnings on CNN about how Russians are 'riding a tiger', they will suffer for their involvement in middle east.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Dec 2016 12:43

I know this is OT but how long before Pakis learn from their Turkish fathers and attempt a similar thing Indian envoys in Afg or Pak? India should step up security for our diplomatic staff.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 20 Dec 2016 12:45

Chandragupta wrote:I know this is OT but how long before Pakis learn from their Turkish fathers and attempt a similar thing Indian envoys in Afg or Pak? India should step up security for our diplomatic staff.

They've already done that. Remember the Kabul embassy bombings or the attacks on our consulate in Herat? Probably Turkis took a leaf out of Paki playbook.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Dec 2016 13:02

What is it with the conspiracy theories? Quacks like a duck, walks like a duck.. Lock Ness monster??

Most of the time, things are what they look like. Turkish cop, disgruntled about Aleppo, wants to 'do something'/'be heard', finds himself a soft target in a public setting and sets himself up for 'martyrdom'.

As for the strategic implications, there are none (the limited blowback will be entirely political). There's a reason the ambassador was a soft target lacking VVIP protection. The role of such functionaries is by-and-large to carry out PR work on behalf of their state, attend ribbon cuttings, cultural soirees, hobnob with the local elites and also oversee routine administrative work.

Foreign policy is made in national capitals (in the Kremlin, in this case) and the advice from an ambassador is usually just a footnote to the planning process. There was time when foreign offices depended heavily on their embassies as the primary nodes for local input, but in the age of globalisation and the internet, they've been rendered mostly defunct.

As such things go, the downing of the Russian Su-24 was a far far more serious event. This one is unlikely to have much of an impact on Russian-Turkish relations (which have been recovering since the attempted coup in July).

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 20 Dec 2016 13:06

Sorry. Killing an Ambassador as much an act of war if not more than downing a jet. An Ambassador is almost like a part of the country in another country, a messenger so to speak. Shooting the representative.... is almost always a bad idea.

Having said that, I dont know if there is any cya involvement here. Dont think they are that stupid, but who knows they figured out eyeraq had wmds and all.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Dec 2016 13:12

LokeshC wrote:Sorry. Killing an Ambassador as much an act of war if not more than downing a jet. An Ambassador is almost like a part of the country in another country, a messenger so to speak. Shooting the representative.... is almost always a bad idea.

Its an act of war when its carried out by the state. And states have little incentive to bump off diplomats or even turn a blind eye to non-state entity planning the same. Expelling a diplomat sends a message. Having one murdered on your soil is just a national embarrassment.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 20 Dec 2016 13:13

Realistically, what can Russia do to respond to this?

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 20 Dec 2016 13:18

Viv S,
ISIS/AlQ is at war with Russia. The murderer was from the Turkish internal security department. Turkey has largely gone Baki with this, in a couple of years it will be fully baki.

Whoever did this is going to pay, is all I have to say. This is as serious as it gets.

Now who funds ISIS/AlQ/Bakistan/Turkey, and would they or wouldn't they have a hand in this... is a different question and I do not wish to speculate.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Dec 2016 14:04

LokeshC wrote:Viv S,
ISIS/AlQ is at war with Russia. The murderer was from the Turkish internal security department. Turkey has largely gone Baki with this, in a couple of years it will be fully baki.

The same logic could be used to accuse the Ukraine of having masterminded it. Ukraine and Russia are in a state of cold war. A Russian diplomat is dead. Therefore, the Ukrainians could be responsible.

Whoever did this is going to pay, is all I have to say. This is as serious as it gets.

Now who funds ISIS/AlQ/Bakistan/Turkey, and would they or wouldn't they have a hand in this... is a different question and I do not wish to speculate.

Who's responsible isn't a different, its the core question. The Russian ambassador was not playing a crucial role in formulating foreign policy. His death does not change the formal/global status quo. No state actor gains from his murder, Turkey loses (slightly).

As for the FSA, they're already at war with Assad/Russia and have a host of sympathisers in the Sunni world that don't need formal direction to engage in this kind of violence. The ISIS meanwhile has claimed responsibility for several terrorist attacks in Europe. It'll hardly shy from claiming credit for another.

While its human nature to look for bigger story/secret beyond the obvious, until there's real evidence saying otherwise, engaging in conspiracies theories is not just pointless, its silly.

LokeshC · Post by **LokeshC** » 20 Dec 2016 14:14

I scratch my head and wonder, where did I indulge in CT? Even more so i wonder what the real argument here is? I said whoever did this will pay in some way. I stand by it, and that's one thing I said. I also said cya wont prolly have done it, I stand by that statement as well.

I did not say ww3 is gonna start tomorrow or some such thing. Please don't put words in my mouth.

Lets move on.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 20 Dec 2016 14:22

Nothing happened after Erdogan shot down Roosi plane.
Nothing is gonna happen now. Russia had a target then.
Now it is just some disgruntled jihadi.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Dec 2016 14:26

Kashi wrote:Realistically, what can Russia do to respond to this?

Sheikh BakrBagr, Prince of Saud and Most Benevolent Sponsor of many VBIEDs, may get mugged. Or can wonder each time his chauffeur turns the ignition, what will get ignited.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 20 Dec 2016 15:31

Let's see what +ve can come out of Turkish Mumtaazturk Qadricek suddenly remembering his islamiyat.

Putin will cry and telephone Trump "Comrade Ju Were Right about those Moslems"

Putin will cry and call Modi "Modiski I tell you dip switch settings for quadrupling Brahmos range to 1200km, Ju you want miles? Ok 1200miles, Ju got it"

Putin will call ergodan and say "May your mother-in-law eat roach caviar Ju Arap"

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Dec 2016 16:11

there are a few potential escalatory scenarios to keep in mind.

Russian hackers target Turkey. Russia has a penchant for causing domestic political trouble in other countries through conveniently timed cyber hacks (just ask the United States). The Turkish government has been on the receiving end of such hacks before; on Dec. 7, Wikileaks released over 57,000 emails of Berat Albayrak, Turkey’s minister of energy and natural resources and also President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law. With indications of Russia cooperating with Wikileaks to publicize hacked emails in the past, Russian cyber surrogates could target Turkey, revealing more unflattering secrets about people in the orbit of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The already fragile relationship between Russia and Turkey could fall apart, leading to renewed economic pressure on Turkey. This is what happened after November 2015, when Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian bomber on the border of Syria. In response, Russia embargoed many Turkish goods, Turkish exports to Russia fell $737 million. Further, the Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline, meant to be part of the two countries’ “strategic partnership,” was put on hold. The economic situation did not improve until Erdogan apologized in June 2016.
The assassination is used as an excuse for further democratic repression in both Turkey and Russia. Erdogan detained thousands after the failed coup against his government this July, a putsch that included an attempt on his own life. Putin came to power in part by cracking down against perceived insubordination by violence in Chechnya. Whatever else, the assassination does not bode well for Russian or Turkish civil society.
The ceasefire in Aleppo collapses. Russia and Turkey are on opposite sides of the Syrian civil war, but both helped broker the latest ceasefire that allowed rebels and civilians to leave Aleppo. The assassination could cause the ceasefire collapse anew, or lead to renewed fighting elsewhere in Syria. Russian forces are operational in northeast Syria, not far from where Turkish troops have taken part in cross-border assaults on towns held by the Islamic State.
Russia plays the Kurdish card. Turkey is a NATO member, making it highly unlikely that Russia would consider starting an out and out war with Turkey itself. Karlov is probably not, in other words, another Archduke Franz Ferdinand. But Russia could use its historical ties with disaffected Kurdish populations in Turkey, including possible support for Kurdish militants, spurring more Kurdish terror attacks.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/12/19/fiv ... to-turkey/

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Dec 2016 16:47

Hypothetical scenario :

What can NATO states do if tomorrow Putin loses it and rains down a few dozen cruise missiles on Istanbul & Ankara?

Which NATO member has the stomach to take on Russia right now? Specially when Russia is responding to its envoy being killed by a Jehadi shouting AoA. How many governments in Europe would go to their voters saying we must lose thousands of men to defend an Islamist Turkey?

Looks like a good time to pull the pants down on NATO.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Dec 2016 16:59

Remember "salami slice" discussion in Yes Prime Minister. Minor steps will not give rise to any major fight. But from what we have seen Russian and Turks tried to improve relations after the Su25 incidence.

having said that, attack of Ambassador is not a small thing that will be ignored by Russians.

habal · Post by **habal** » 20 Dec 2016 17:06

right now Russia-Syria are winning, and I doubt Russia will expand the war now when it is winning. When the plane was shot down, the russian intervention had just begun, in that case the response to that provocation would have been make or break.

I am sure though, that they would like to get even with Mubarak Hussain and his control arms. If they get down to giving an equal & befitting response, it is not going to be pretty.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Dec 2016 17:29

LokeshC wrote:I scratch my head and wonder, where did I indulge in CT? Even more so i wonder what the real argument here is? I said whoever did this will pay in some way. I stand by it, and that's one thing I said. I also said cya wont prolly have done it, I stand by that statement as well.

"Whoever did this" implies somebody masterminded the event, unless you referring to the dead gunman paying for it in the after-life. You also termed it an "act of war" which again implies that it was a state entity that was responsible, despite the fact that no state makes any obvious gains from the killing, taking us again into CT territory.

I did not say ww3 is gonna start tomorrow or some such thing. Please don't put words in my mouth.

I said nothing about WW 3 or whatever. All I'm saying is that until there's evidence pointing to the contrary, its wiser to stick with the obvious explanation. Occam's Razor.

Lets move on.

Sure.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Dec 2016 17:53

Chandragupta wrote:Hypothetical scenario :

What can NATO states do if tomorrow Putin loses it and rains down a few dozen cruise missiles on Istanbul & Ankara?

They'd be in a state of war under Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

Which NATO member has the stomach to take on Russia right now? Specially when Russia is responding to its envoy being killed by a Jehadi shouting AoA. How many governments in Europe would go to their voters saying we must lose thousands of men to defend an Islamist Turkey?

No national legislature needs to vote on the issue, they've all ratified the NATO treaty which would immediately become operational. The fallout of the Su-24 downing was ambiguous, it isn't in this case.

Looks like a good time to pull the pants down on NATO.

Russia has been trying to co-opt Turkey out of NATO and out of the EU's sphere of influence into its own ambit for nearly a decade now. And until the Russian intervention in Syria, it was succeeding. And whatever influence it lost, it regained in the aftermath of the July coup attempt which ran a rift in US-Turkey relations.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 20 Dec 2016 17:54

Roos lovers will jump up and down BR, swear on Putin`s clean shaven bare chest and declare how bloody Russian revenge is going to be.
That is all that is gonna happen.
Apart from those Erdoo-Putin phonecalls of course.