Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 23 Dec 2016 00:07

Ground report from Pune and Mumbai

1. Spoke to 3 drivers and 2 security guards. Fully supporting demo
2. Chattering class and upper middle class is ambiguous. Never having stood in a line some people are still saying lots of takleef to people. Asked them (my own mother included) have you ever stood in a line. No they haven't. But it seems it's fashionable to say this. noise value and highly irritating but they are not driving the narrative with the people on ground. Till now atleast.
3. Dad went to big SBI branch in Pune. Met the manager to give certificate of life for pension. Chap comes in and wants to withdraw money form jdy. Has done his allowed quota. Manager explained and said I can't give you more. Do you want me to go to jail.
4. Big builder shard pawar money have 50 lacs to a mid sized contractor to launder. Mid sized needs to give it to smaller contractors and down the chain. He is worried about the risk of money not coming , being reported etc so told big builder sir I will do 30 lacs but can't do 50. This is the multi failure points in long chain argument made by Suraj a few times.
5. Excise commissioner has given 2 cr for laundering and said the govt will come and go but I will be here and it's you people who will have to make up my loss. We GST asap to sort this out.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 23 Dec 2016 00:23

MohdKav wrote:Why go for Muluyam, there are many little mulayam running around in India, in thousands. Tax evaders should be caught. If you are not catching anyone, and people are converting money with ease. Then the only looser is the common man and the honest man.

If you don't do anything, you will never make any mistakes, and you can maintain a perfect record. Demonetization is no different.

India hasn't done anything, taken any risk, tried to change, in a very long time. One of the smartest people I know, an ex-IAS babu who turned anti-corruption crusader, told me once that the Indian "steel frame" edifice is so weak and rotten and corrupt that it remains standing only because of the dirt and rust that has accumulated in all the joints. No one, even with the best of intentions, dares to touch it to rebuild because they don't know what will happen if they do.

I think it is a mistake to see the demonetization effort in a literal way, and judge it as a "success" or "failure." It would be amazing to me if an effort like this yielded some significant positive results, and is judged as a "success." That's because it is treading completely uncharted territory, with no guidance at all from any historical data. Everyone who stands on the sidelines and finds faults with the idea, the approach, the implementation etc. is quite right; but what they are missing is that a risky, costly, huge and unprecedented exercise like this has, on the face of it, very little chance of accomplishing anything directly.

I think of a country deciding to go to war as an analogy. You can go to war with specific objectives in mind--occupy such and so territory, drive out invaders from somewhere etc. But sometimes a country that has hitherto shied away from any war or other risk-taking behavior may go to war just show the world that it is capable of going to war. It is a signal of fundamental change, that it is not business-as-usual any more. It is a truth-telling exercise that forces everyone to open up and show where they stand.

Such signals, by their nature, are costly. But a leader who delivers such a signal and still remains a leader can be quite fearsome. Check out these articles by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, who is the opposite of a Modi bhakt. He gets it, and is, rightly, frightened. For better or worse, this exercise is about projecting the strength and courage of Narendra Modi. Some think it is for the better, many feel it is for the worse and prefer Pappu-mafia queen-MMS raj as the devil they know.

http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... d-4379388/
http://indianexpress.com/article/opinio ... n-4395371/

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 23 Dec 2016 00:37

Suraj wrote:
MohdKav wrote:That is not the only way, there are multiple ways. the money being is laundered directly from the RBI and Bank chest. Banks are hoarding cash just like people are doing, they are not giving any to their own customers. One of banker's for example only gives out Rs.6000 at one go and for a week for ordinary people even if he can give more, While important customers get much more.

Money is also laundered through fake accounts. I dont think much time has been spend here on how money laundering is happening, people can only do that if they come out of their cocoon and chinbot behavior about this whole saga.
Alright, I'm going to put a stop to this nonsense.

Make any claims you like about random nebulous individuals . But when you make claims about Indian public and state institutions, that requires evidence. You don't get to randomly claim 'banks do this, RBI does that' WITHOUT EVIDENCE. And no, 'everyone knows this', 'I heard about this from my maid's cat' are not evidence.

Short of evidence provided, you'll be banned for trolling.

Fascinating so all the money ( new 2000) found was all fake, I suppose.
Quite easy to google on the RBI and Bank officials. Today in cochin, people were caught with 37.5 lac new currency; where did it come from ?
You dont like my responses,you are more the welcome to silence me, which doesnt change anything on the ground. As a Moderator, you shouldnt be so consumed by a pov, that you refuse to accomdate an alternate pov and give it the same latitude you give yours.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 23 Dec 2016 00:44

shiv wrote:
The unnecessary dimension if I may explain is showing feelings which only evoke Schadenfreude among those who read it. That is why I was amused. Clearly you are letting on that this is one button of yours that can be pressed to get you worked up. Always bad form on the Internet. I did not want to write this explanation but there you are. I rarely "defend" anyone who calls someone names but I do detect moods.
You might have over played your piskcology here. Doc.

If I may use an analogy - if you have 20 people who see a horse and one person who sees a donkey, the debate is going to be centered around the features of the horse. Not the donkey.

You are seeing people laundering money "all around you". The donkey is in full view to you. Others are not seeing that. If you choose to accuse them of blindness, stupidity or bias - it is your problem, not theirs

Could the demonetization have been done better? Here I have a definite viewpoint. The demonetization was a process - conversion of notes is still going on as I write this. The question of whether it could have been done better is moot until the entire process is over and done with and the results analysed. But you don't seem to want to wait. That is fine, but complaining that others are "high fiving" and not thinking like you smacks of an angry man. Why are you so angry?

A lot of people thought earth was flat at one point of time.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 23 Dec 2016 00:57

MohdKav wrote:Fascinating so all the money ( new 2000) found was all fake, I suppose.
Quite easy to google on the RBI and Bank officials. Today in cochin, people were caught with 37.5 lac new currency; where did it come from ?
You dont like my responses,you are more the welcome to silence me, which doesnt change anything on the ground. As a Moderator, you shouldnt be so consumed by a pov, that you refuse to accomdate an alternate pov and give it the same latitude you give yours.

You specifically stated that the banks are involved in money laundering and hoarding. Please provide evidence for that. "People have been caught" is not remotely evidence for your assertions. You actually have to prove that the banking system is part of a criminal enterprise. You do not get to get away with making sweeping generalizations like that.

The moderation team most certainly has no interest in encouraging posters who denigrate Indian state institutions. You want to be an anarchist, then go elsewhere. Does not matter if it's the central bank or the army. You get banned for that all the same.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 23 Dec 2016 01:03

Axis Bank, Coperative Bank, RBI employee caught in Karnataka.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 23 Dec 2016 01:07

Sorry, that's not what you claimed. You claimed the institutions themselves are involved in the process of laundering and hoarding money. Prove it.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Dec 2016 01:09

Individuals caught in such activities do not mean the entire bank or RBI is doing the same.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 23 Dec 2016 01:11

Karan M wrote:Individuals caught in such activities do not mean the entire bank or RBI is doing the same.

Exactly. I expect MohdKav to prove his assertions that the banks and RBI themselves are in on it.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 23 Dec 2016 01:16

Suraj wrote:Sorry, that's not what you claimed. You claimed the institutions themselves are involved in the process of laundering and hoarding money. Prove it.

Yup, thats happening right here, right now. I didnt claim that today, I have claimed that before, even before the others got caught, or 37.5 lac got arrested today in Kochi. Its not even one agent, there are atleast 4 operating out of the city, people who have political and local police patronage.

disha · Post by **disha** » 23 Dec 2016 01:19

nandakumar wrote: Was she saying it just to assuage my hurt feelings or there has indeed been a successful attempt at passing off a fake Rs 2000 note (perhaps a crude fake, but a fake note nonetheless)? I couldn't be very sure.

Or maybe she is just unsure of all the high currency notes since she sees them less often. Note that her trade unit is around Rs. 100. At some 10 customers a day and she will make Rs. 1000. She will go to her local flower vendor and pay off her flowers PLUS interest on the 'loan' in lieu of goods plus the rental for the spot . She will rarely carry a bundle of 1000 notes. Also accepting a 1000 Rs. note for say Rs. 90 trade - she now has to keep track how much to pay back to each person who has brokered for her (it is a hassle).

She wants assuage from her fellow small time traders that she can accept this high currency note.

If the above assumption of mine is true., then it blows a hole in the argument that poor/common man are suffering from currency Demo. My experiences with 500/1000 Rs. note was that it was treated with great suspicion by generally older small traders. They just do not know how to handle it., indicating that it is not a common usage for them. This is when you start going out of class-A mega-cities to class-B cities and class-C towns.

You want to test the theory., in your next train travel - whip out say Rs. 2000/- and pay to either a very young or a older small vendor on the towns where the train stops and on the platform. For example Nandurbar. See their reactions.

Hence all the rona-dhona on Modi's Demo - is just that - rona-dhona. And yes people want to do rona-dhona since the Demo has brought them outside of the comfort zone and they do not want to take some effort to change the course. A little course correction will go a long way.

I cannot comment on the hospital part - since I have not experienced it first hand DURING Demo exercise. And I do understand that for people with near and dear ones in hospitals, Demo brings in unnecessary stress. But other than that subset., all the whining on Demo is just plain rona-dhona if one has not already lost money to DM. This same sub-set (non-hospital/non-BM-losers) will wait for the sarkaar to scratch a itch on their bottoms to feel 'Acche Din'.

For the BM-Losers (including people who perpetuate the BM cycle)., well they must whine. If they do not., how will we know if Demo is working or not?

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 23 Dec 2016 01:19

{Deleted}

disha · Post by **disha** » 23 Dec 2016 01:23

MohdKav wrote:
Yup, thats happening right here, right now. I didnt claim that today, I have claimed that before, even before the others got caught, or 37.5 lac got arrested today in Kochi. Its not even one agent, there are atleast 4 operating out of the city, people who have political and local police patronage.

But then you were saying that nobody is getting caught?

On the illegal money stash recovered in notes and gold amounting to some Rs. 8000 crore., you were saying that it is not enough. Of course., you will say that even Rs. 15 lakh crore is not enough since you will move the goal post somewhere.

So answer the question - that is show us proof that banks (and not cooperative "banks") are in this to make the Demo fail. Saying "couple of local banks are certainly involved" is a neither here or there statements. It is like saying that 'Axis bank' is certainly involved in money laundering.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Dec 2016 01:35

So Adux aka MohdKav is on another ban. Chap is from a left-INC background and has frequently bragged in the past about his deep connections etc. Of course, every reason to spread FUD about current demon drive.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 23 Dec 2016 03:42

Cash seizure hints at black money smuggling along India-Bangladesh border - TOI

GUWAHATI: With the income Tax Department stepping up the heat on black money hoarders+ , many Indians could be sending their black money in new notes to Bangladesh to escape the I-T net.

The possible modus operandi caught the attention of Indian security agencies after the Border Security Force (BSF) on Thursday seized Rs 29.70 lakh in new Rs 2000 notes from two people at Nokchi in West Garo Hills District in Meghalaya. Nokchi borders Bangladesh.
The money belonging to an Indian cloth merchant was meant to be delivered to one coal exporter at Gasuapara in Meghalaya. Gasuapara is the export hub of coal for the Garo Hills region and from here huge quantities of coal are sent to Bangladesh through international trade on an annual basis.
This has given rise to strong doubts that money was meant for smuggling+ into Bangladesh through coal consignments for a safe keep.
"The porous India-Bangladesh border is a known conduit for entry of fake Indian currency notes+ (FICN) by some Bangladeshi racketeers who are also involved in smuggling of cattle from India. The reverse flow is possible and Indians could be sending their black money to Bangladesh through the same racketeers," a source said.

A BSF spokesman said that the personnel carried out an operation on Hill Road and apprehended two Indian nationals, Nasib Miya, (23 yrs) and Bilal Hossain, (22 yrs), both residents of Pubergram village at Mankachar in Assam along with the notes.
"The apprehended people revealed that the seized currency belongs to one Sanjay Agarwal, a cloth merchant of Mankachar, and the consignment of money was to be handed over to one coal exporter, Lophu Sangma of Balaji Coal export company of Gasuapara," the spokesman said.
"There are 1485 new Rs 2000 notes and other smaller denomination notes amounting to Rs. 3,205," he added.

The BSF party also seized one PAN card, one voter ID, two driving licenses, one mobile with two Indian SIM and one motor cycle from their possession. The apprehended persons along with seized items handed over to concerned police station for further legal action.
Intelligence agencies are also looking into a possible terror link to the seized money, a source told TOI. "Right now we are also not ruling out the Garo National Liberation Army which has bases across the border and they might be using the same route to transfer their money," the source said.

They are getting caught in every mode of corruption. Lot of focus by govt. The human intelligence and leads were probably exist before Demo too but the new currency is becoming a smoking gun to catch the hoarders. As it was rationed, nobody is supposed to have lakhs of new notes. This became a great advantage for the law enforcement, making the culprits caught with no defense.

In fact, going forward, there is a proposal to make anything more than Rs 15 lakhs of currency notes is illegal to possess. Remember the case where during 2014 elections, law enforcement caught Rs 30 Crore of cash in actor turned politician, Chiranjivi's relative house in Chennai. He simply escaped with the help of PC with no repercussions as he could cook stories to make the source of the income genuine. We can haggle on the amount, but based on the Demo results it is a very important preventive step and a great lever for IT and ED agencies.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 23 Dec 2016 04:19

Neela wrote:Tweet from today from MoF

Income Tax Dept through NMS has identified 67.54 lakh potential non-filers who have carried out high value transactions in F.Y. 2014-15
1:18 PM - 22 Dec 2016 from New Delhi, India
This is for FY 2014 - 2015
Can someone explain how MoF could have arrived at this finding?
Have they scanned bank transactions vs tax filed (or not) against the same PAN number?

The reports says that it cross checked with various other sources - specifically banks and other financial institutions. So I suspect they created a machine learning/artificial intelligence model and pumping all the data from various sources into it. If there is willingness, this technology and expertise is available for few years for many companies and institutions. Very hard to guess what the model is doing and what the feed back mechanism for model is wihout knowing some samples. The simplest model can work on credit card statements, bank statements and real estate transactions and tie them together by PAN id. This is why electronic cashless transactions are so critical if govt has to fight this BM in the long run. Hope they make any cash transactions above Rs 10000 or certain amount as illegal.

Here is the full article from TOI.

NEW DELHI: The income tax department has identified an additional 67.54 lakh non-filers who carried out high-value transactions in the 2014-15 financial year, but did not file tax returns for 2015-16.
The I-T department is set to initiate action against these people soon.
The information was collected from banks and other financial institutions.
Data analysis carried out by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) identifies non-filers about whom specific information is available in transaction reports received in its databases from various sources. The analysis is carried out as part of the I-T department's Non-filers Monitoring System (NMS) which is meant to identify non-filers with potential tax liabilities.
A CBDT press release said that the I-T department had identified the 67.54 lakh people by conducting its fifth cycle of data matching.
The department is in the process of sending notices to these non-filers to now account for their transactions and pay taxes as applicable.
The non-filers can access details of their transactions when they log on to the e-filing portal with their PAN, the CBDT said.
The PAN holder will be able to respond electronically and retain a copy of the submitted response.
The CBDT urged all tax payers to disclose their true income and pay taxes accordingly to escape scrutiny. It said the I-T department would continue to pursue non-filers vigorously.

In more than 760 search and seizure operations after demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes on November 8, the I-T department has unearthed at least Rs 3,590 crore in unaccounted income. The department has issued 3,589 notices since November 8 to various entities for alleged tax evasion and hawala dealings.
More than Rs 500 crore has been seized in cash and jewellery during this period, including Rs 93 crore in new currency notes. The I-T department has also referred at least 215 cases to the Enforcement Directorate and 185 to the CBI to further investigation in the matters.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Dec 2016 04:40

Very hard to guess what the model is doing and what the feed back mechanism for model is wihout knowing some samples.

Not hard at all.

Catching someone is about the past - following a trail - collecting data from ALL sources (that collect such data). And as the article states, analysis, a matter of "bashing" (as some call it). Correlating, matching, etc.

Models are based on the same data, but are used to predict behavior, assess risk and the like. Deals with the future.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 23 Dec 2016 04:44

I dont think we even need elaborate schemes to curb people from holding excess cash. Just make 50rs the highest denomination. Makes it very hard to make high value transactions with cash. Push digitisation through subsidies/tax breaks for account transfers.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 23 Dec 2016 05:44

Yogi_G wrote: Now for the joy part, I am making it a point to regularly meet these same folks these days on a regular basis. The awesome look on their faces and gone is the cocky tone, its all subdued and defeated in content.
If a single Demon drive can send these BM hoarders to such a tizzy I only wonder what the next set of measures will do. Go for them Modi ji, go for them in full earnest!

My saashtaang pranaams Yogi jee _/\_

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 23 Dec 2016 06:39

NRao wrote:
Very hard to guess what the model is doing and what the feed back mechanism for model is wihout knowing some samples.
Not hard at all.

Catching someone is about the past - following a trail - collecting data from ALL sources (that collect such data). And as the article states, analysis, a matter of "bashing" (as some call it). Correlating, matching, etc.

Models are based on the same data, but are used to predict behavior, assess risk and the like. Deals with the future.

I don't want to speculate based on theory without knowing what variables they are using, training data, test and validation data. They need to have really good size, not 700+ sample points as the report suggests. You have millions of PAN ids and their tax filings but they don't automatically become your training data without classifying them which requires scrutiny.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Dec 2016 06:42

JohnTitor wrote:I dont think we even need elaborate schemes to curb people from holding excess cash. Just make 50rs the highest denomination. Makes it very hard to make high value transactions with cash. Push digitisation through subsidies/tax breaks for account transfers.

As I see it - such a move will cause some future government to start printing hi denomination notes using the excuse "Poor are suffering", We have seen how much that excuse has been overused in the last 6 weeks

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 23 Dec 2016 06:48

A survey of the Urban Poor. - Audio report.
Episode 7 - Coping with 'Notebandi'(Demonetisation): Voices of informal workers

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 23 Dec 2016 06:50

shiv wrote:
JohnTitor wrote:I dont think we even need elaborate schemes to curb people from holding excess cash. Just make 50rs the highest denomination. Makes it very hard to make high value transactions with cash. Push digitisation through subsidies/tax breaks for account transfers.
As I see it - such a move will cause some future government to start printing hi denomination notes using the excuse "Poor are suffering", We have seen how much that excuse has been overused in the last 6 weeks

JohnTitor,
Yes that will do. In fact that is much better way of doing. But that takes lot of notes and lot of time. It also requires another demonetization in future and adoption of cashless past 50%. If Modi wins 2019, this is going to happen.

Dasari · Post by **Dasari** » 23 Dec 2016 07:16

The web of BM is slowly unwinding. At least this should give shock to anybody trying to wash the black money in the next one week.

Kolkata realtor Lodha's arrest causes ripples in Delhi, TN

NEW DELHI: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested Kolkata-based realtor Paras Mal Lodha for laundering crores in scrapped notes, causing ripples of anxiety in legal and other circles in the capital and elsewhere.
The ED started questioning Lodha three days ago when it found that he had helped Delhi lawyer Rohit Tandon and Chennai-based sand mining baron Shekhar Reddy convert crores of outlawed notes into new ones. ED's probe into the allegedly illegal stashes found with Tandon and Reddy led to the money trail to Lodha, known for his rich network of contacts. ED sources said Lodha had admitted to having converted Rs 25 crore and Rs 18 crore belonging to Tandon and Reddy, after charging a premium of 15-20%. He had first denied having washed black money, saying the cash trail linking him to Tandon was from a property deal. Lodha, a businessman, emerged as an influential figure in Kolkata's real estate sector in the 1990s.
There was considerable drama when Lodha was produced in a Saket court on Thursday with the businessman, who made it big by acquiring roof rights in Kolkata's buildings, reversing his stand not to engage counsel after speaking with his wife in the full courtroom. His counsel, who arrived suddenly, asked for the media and others to be removed from the court room before his client recorded his statement. The court later granted the ED permission to keep the businessman in their custody for seven days for further questioning.
Lodha's arrest and the multi-agency probe which led to it is being watched with fascination because of his link with Tandon, the mysterious lawyer who, going by the money found on him, appears to be wealthier than his peers with storied reputation. The ED's claim that Tandon gave Rs 18 crore to Lodha takes the total amount found with Tandon, who left Delhi some time ago when he acquired the plush bungalow of Ruias in the capital's leafy Jor Bagh for Rs 100 crore, to more than Rs 170 crore -something which has led many to suspect whether he was handling money of others.

The expanding probe into the fortunes of Tandon and Reddy has put the spotlight on what ED sources say is the countrywide network of money launderers who became busy after demonetisation was announced on November 8 and helped people convert the invalidated cash into valid currency, new and old. The I-T raids on TN chief secretary Rama Mohana Rao, who was removed on Thursday, suggests it is not just lawyers and businessmen but also bureaucrats who could have availed of the services of Lodha and others like him.
ED sources said Lodha "admitted" to having operated through bank employees, largely low-ranking, he has cultivated. The sources said he denied committing any illegality, claiming that his job was limited to connect those who needed each other. Of course, that was before he changed his mind and decided, through his laywer, to record a statement while insisting that except for the ED's investigating officer, others left the court.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Dec 2016 07:21

IMO MohdKav's anger was more in the genre of political anger like Congress/Mamata type. The anger was not so much the act of demonetization but the fact that it was done by Modi/BJP.

Those groups WANT demonetization to fail precisely for those reasons and will definitely not report or prevent laundering out of spite. One of the earliest and most persistent arguments made is not the act of demonetization, but "manner of implementation". The first complaint made was "suddenness and lack of warning" - which is laughable. That is the fundamental gripe - the lack of many days or weeks warning which would have allowed all the money to be safely laundered.

Now let me ask a rhetorical question: Supposing Modi had given 8 weeks warning what would have happened? Everyone knows that most of the money would have been laundered. Now we hear from MohdKav and from other political opponents that the money is being laundered anyway. Then what is all the crying about? If money would have been laundered either way no one needs to complain.

The complaint really is that demonetization without warning has hit and has hit hard. Money laundering that could have been done safely and under the radar has become difficult and fraught with risk. As Akshay Kapoor pointed out a black cash stash has to be urgently handed over to a third party - whom you know damn well is a crook who is going to be doing illegal stuff. You were keeping you stash thinking that you have avoided tax - and now you are forces to pay a tax of 20 or 40% to the money launderer who is getting a windfall. The laundering may not succeed because the launderer may be using routes that are under scrutiny like inactive accounts and accounts of "poor people" that suddenly fill up. The owner of black money has a been forced to pay tax on his money - but that tax has gone to some other party who is a crook who may get caught and sing like a canary when he is caught.

This is the source of angst. The fact that money is being laundered even now is being used by the opposition to howl "failure failure" when there is IMO even worse to come - because the laundering routes are being monitored using whatever assets that can be applied. The fact that fake money from Pakistan died in one shot is not even being spoken about. The fact that several hundred security men have probably escaped injury or death does not matter to the people who angrily and eagerly hope for the failure of demonetization and therefore the BJP. In this country the success of anything that calls itself Hindu is viewed with anger even if the act is secular and non communal. Even the word nationalism is spat upon because of this. India is the home base of Hinduphobia. Ironic.

I am not normally communal in my views but as I see it demonetization is being dubbed as the act of a Hindu party which needs to be opposed no matter what. For this reason I am perfectly happy to bring in a communal colour and say that we must all ensure that demonetization ends up being a resounding success

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 23 Dec 2016 07:26

Excise commissioner has given 2 cr for laundering and said the govt will come and go but I will be here and it's you people who will have to make up my loss. We GST asap to sort this out.

This is a great and common enough example of arrogance and sense of entitlement among the public 'servants. Unless, governance is fixed, I have no doubt, at least in my mind that this gent will pursue his threat successfully and ruthlessly

Such people are essentially cowards, they will 'beat' up and exploit the powerless I.e. Mango man, through the powers granted by the state in the name of public service.

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 23 Dec 2016 07:38

shiv wrote:
I am not normally communal in my views but as I see it demonetization is being dubbed as the act of a Hindu party which needs to be opposed no matter what. For this reason I am perfectly happy to bring in a communal colour and say that we must all ensure that demonetization ends up being a resounding success

Gurudev, what is the best homa/yagna, that would turbocharge an boost the efficacy of ongoing drive ?
And who's the presiding INR 500-100 Mardhini ?

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 23 Dec 2016 07:40

rahulm wrote:
Excise commissioner has given 2 cr for laundering and said the govt will come and go but I will be here and it's you people who will have to make up my loss. We GST asap to sort this out.
This is a great and common enough example of arrogance and sense of entitlement among the public 'servants. Unless, governance is fixed, I have no doubt, at least in my mind that this gent will pursue his threat successfully and ruthlessly

Such people are essentially cowards, they will 'beat' up and exploit the powerless I.e. Mango man, through the powers granted by the state in the name of public service.

It's very strange that he's so loud about it !
Open declaration !

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 23 Dec 2016 07:48

shiv wrote:IMO MohdKav's anger was more in the genre of political anger like Congress/Mamata type. The anger was not so much the act of demonetization but the fact that it was done by Modi/BJP.

Habal is one such guy who trots excuse after excuse how DeMo is causing problems to the poor people and why its a failure.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 23 Dec 2016 07:51

Rammpal wrote:
shiv wrote:
I am not normally communal in my views but as I see it demonetization is being dubbed as the act of a Hindu party which needs to be opposed no matter what. For this reason I am perfectly happy to bring in a communal colour and say that we must all ensure that demonetization ends up being a resounding success
Gurudev, what is the best homa/yagna, that would turbocharge an boost the efficacy of ongoing drive ?
And who's the presiding INR 500-100 Mardhini ?

I believe you think that this is some sort of "barb" that will get a Hindu angry. I always amuses me to see these little conclusions that secular people reach about others they don't know and yet feel the need to try and tickle.

The best homa-yagna that I did was to put you on my ignore list a few weeks ago. But the mistake was peeking without logging in which made me see your post. It's my fault and I regret it.

Rammpal · Post by **Rammpal** » 23 Dec 2016 08:03

shiv wrote:
Rammpal wrote:
Gurudev, what is the best homa/yagna, that would turbocharge an boost the efficacy of ongoing drive ?
And who's the presiding INR 500-100 Mardhini ?
I believe you think that this is some sort of "barb" that will get a Hindu angry. I always amuses me to see these little conclusions that secular people reach about others they don't know and yet feel the need to try and tickle.

The best homa-yagna that I did was to put you on my ignore list a few weeks ago. But the mistake was peeking without logging in which made me see your post. It's my fault and I regret it.

WTF ?!!!

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 23 Dec 2016 10:59

Re excise commissioner yes its total Khullam Khula. Basically what I see is that some businessmen are scared for sure. Govt employees especially big shots are still brazen. But this news was pre TN Chief Secy arrest. Surely some risk has come in for govt employees as well. As I was explaining to some worthies yesterday demo has certainly put risk into the calculations. It's like the surgical strikes. Atleast we imposed some cost. That will change the enemies calculus. Same here.

Agree with Shiv on Hindu phobia and if this was done by Congi govt it would have had less anger. But also this should strengthen the nationalistic base. People are less afraid of seen to be Hindu/Sikh and nationalistic now.

Lastly I would have really liked the likes of Arun Bhatia and Sanjay Pande , YP Singh et all to have been roped in to make enforcement a success.

Also IB RAW resources, phone tapping , etc should be employed to dig out the big shots. Judiciary should be brought onsite as well by getting information on them and telling them they will not be prosecuted but they have to give swift justice to big shot accused in return. Lot of corruption in higher judiciary too.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 23 Dec 2016 11:01

Demonetization: What does the world’s most unbiased reporter say?

Demonetization: What does the world’s most unbiased reporter say?
by chaiwallah / Editor’s Picks, Media / 15 Dec 2016

This might come as a shock to The Hindu, The Troll, The Wire and The Huffington Post. Not to mention a shock to Newslaundry. The best journalists in the world don’t come out of Doon school and St. Stephens College and JNU and Jamia Millia Islamia. To say nothing of Columbia University school of Journalism.

Here is the world’s best journalist:

It’s called money.

Suppose that you want to know how India’s rice farmers are doing right now. Suppose you want to know how the laborers who sowed the rice, the laborers who harvested the crop, the farmers who sold the crop, the traders who bought the crop and the truckers who transported the crop and finally the grocers who put the rice on market shelves are doing.

You have two choices. You could go to a “journalist” who will pick one person from each category and ask the question that is the hallmark of airhead reporting today: “Aapko kaisa lag raha hai?”. But keep in mind that this journalist could have an agenda. He or she could have been an Agustapatrakar. Even a Radia stenographer perhaps. Or maybe a Bhakt?

But there is a second, much better choice. You could simply go check the price.

The price is one single magical number that captures the situation of every single person in the supply chain. The best thing about prices is that they don’t have an agenda. The price does not have a political affiliation. The price doesn’t care if you are a Modi supporter or a Rahul Gandhi supporter. The price doesn’t care if you are an illiterate person or you have an arts degree from JNU.

Since Nov 8, we have all read fantastic stories of how all the agricultural Mandis are empty, of how trucks have gone off the road. We have heard about how farmers cannot harvest their crop nor sell their crop nor plant a new crop. Amazingly however, there is one stubborn fact. Prices aren’t rising!

Apparently, no trader, no hoarder has noticed yet the opportunity of a lifetime. Hardly any crop got harvested, hardly any crop got sowed and hardly any crop got transported. The farms are empty, the trucks are empty, the Mandis are empty, but the markets are full. Amazing!

In fact, is there one item that people can name that has disappeared from the shelves since Nov 8? From tomatoes to journalists to intellectuals, the markets seem well stocked with stuff for sale as usual.

Those claiming “poor implementation” of demonetization should answer the question about why there are no price shocks happening anywhere? Do they understand what it takes to keep 1200 million people supplied with milk, grain and vegetables after sucking 86% of all currency out of the system? And yet, not a single price shock.

In fact, in the initial weeks, the “poor implementation” brigade was greedily looking forward to a collapse of the supply chain. Here is the Wall Street Journal on Nov 16.

Choked since Nov 8 but still prices not rising. Will good Dr. Manmohan Singh kindly explain this? Look at this:

It’s on Nov 20 that The Indian Express confirmed the collapse of the sugar supply chain. It’s Dec 14 and still no coup in the prices of sugar. Clearly an RSS conspiracy.

Again on Nov 24, a confirmation from India Today that 70% of trucks are off the roads. As if further evidence was needed, they even have a photograph of 7 trucks parked side by side. The other 3 trucks must still be on the road. But still no price rise? Why? What is the deal, Modi ji?

Food markets frozen since Nov 18 as reported by Scroll.in, complete with a picture of a gloomy trader sitting with the last vestiges of India’s food stocks.

The prices still aren’t rising. Only intolerance is.

The closest we came to a price shock was a rumor about a shortage of salt. In a matter of a few hours, salt prices across the country went through the roof, with gullible people buying one kg of salt for as much as Rs 200 and journalists buying it for as much as Rs. 400.

That is what can happen simply from the perception of a shortage. And here we have confirmed reports from Wall Street Journal, India Today, The Indian Express and Scroll.in about a freeze in the supply chain. But the price system still shows no sign of cooperating with the intellectuals. Has the credibility of journalists become so low that people would go in a mad rush to buy salt based on Whatsapp rumors but ignore the hard hitting reporting of qualified journalists? I guess this must be the “post truth society” the liberals keep complaining about

chaiwallah
Chaiwallah is an ordinary Bharatiya who opposes the dynasty and blogs at https://dynastycrooks.wordpress.com/

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 23 Dec 2016 11:03

TBH, just want to know what is phoren stake in all this....I mean what warrants an article of this nature?

What India Has Done To Its Money Is Sickening And Immoral - Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes ... f569cc1148

Why so much anguish? Kahi pe jor ka jhatka to nahin baitha?

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 23 Dec 2016 11:06

habal wrote:For many people in India keeping 10 lakhs of cash @ home is sensible and practical.

Strange if not funny. I can guess who these "many" people are. They are those who are specifically targeted by DeMo.

Generally people either buy a mediclaim for their safety or keep the money in bank if they really want to keep it aside for medical emergency. Cash at home is not seen safe by anyone who is not a hoarder (and even by hoarders but they have no choice). What's more, they get interest on the money kept in bank.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 23 Dec 2016 11:10

Another report. Dads Malish wala took a few days off to go to his village and vote for municipal elections. Says he gets 10000 Rs for a vote. This time he got only 3000 Rs. Party said this is the max we can give. vote if you want to. If not vote for whomever you want. Party was BJP. He voted for them anyway.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 23 Dec 2016 11:12

shiv wrote:Kookal tells me that the "median" per capita income in India is about Rs 3600 per month - or 120 per day.

Median means 50% of Indians get less and 50% get more. In other words 600 million Indians deal with less than Rs 120 per day for ALL expenses food, clothing accommodation water, power, education etc
Also 600 million Indian get more than Rs 120 per day.

It is safe to say that the 600 million who get less than 120 per day would have had no immediate direct impact on from demontezation. But they would have an indirect impact if salaries are being paid in high value notes. But I bet my ass that most people were paid in high value notes and now have accounts with money sitting in there.

One fact that critics do not realise when they talk about hundreds of millions of people being `unbanked' or not having smart phones, is that it is important to look at numbers at a household and not individual level. As per PMJDY data at the beginning of 2016, all but 23,000 households in India had at least 1 bank account (I'm not sure that sounds realistic, but there are certainly twice as many bank accounts as there are households). As you point out, a large percentage of the population are very poor, which is why millions of bank accounts have no balance. As long as evary household has a bank account and a smartphone, they can take part in a cashless economy.
Post DM the number of zero balance JDY accounts has fallen from 56 to 55 million, suggesting that misuse is minimal.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Dec 2016 11:42

Neela wrote:Tweet from today from MoF

Income Tax Dept through NMS has identified 67.54 lakh potential non-filers who have carried out high value transactions in F.Y. 2014-15
1:18 PM - 22 Dec 2016 from New Delhi, India
This is for FY 2014 - 2015
Can someone explain how MoF could have arrived at this finding?
Have they scanned bank transactions vs tax filed (or not) against the same PAN number?

Yes. All the accounts wherein more than five lacs transactions and credit cards with more than 2 lac transactions are reported to IT department. Almost no one knows about it. I used to do it for entire bank during my PSU bank days.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 23 Dec 2016 11:44

Chandragupta wrote:The GoI did screw it up to an extent. What they are doing now should have done an year back. Don't tell me that they were not planning this for atleast the last 6 months.

So even if they started to move 6 months back, they could have -

a. reduced service taxes on digital payments
b. some kind of data subsidy on rural mobile connections
c. mandatory UPI or USSD for availing farm subsidies or DCT
d. tax benefits for business going completely digital
e. all central govt departments going cashless - including Central Universities & even PSUs - imagine if all PSUs said to their vendors, show me atleast 10% of your turnover in digital payments - such a huge game changer

and so much more could have done to ensure this kind of chaos for cash never happened.

Yes, they could have done all this and more in the months preceding DeMo. However, its not so easy and the impact would be marginal. To comment on your points:

1. Service tax: Difficult to have multiple rates of service tax. However, GST will resolve it (I assume tax will be at the lowest level).
2. Data subsidy; Data costs are already the lowest in the world, particularly for small users. Rural is technically subsidised, as costs of infrastructure
are higher than in urban areas.
3. UPI - It is a path-breaking system which could not have been rolled out any faster. I have been involved in the marketing strategy.
4. Tax benefits: Not sure how it can be implemented.
5. Central Govt - happened to a large extent. All purchases are digital.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 23 Dec 2016 12:20

Yogi_G wrote:Close friends and relatives have scolded me for being a sentimental fool with sayings like "A fool and his money are easily separated" etc etc.

Was reading a comment in an online news paper report. One chap commented that, it was for the first time he could hold up his head high and say that he had no black money, and hence had no worries at all. Till then all his friends and relatives called him a fool, or a person who did not know how to "play with money".

Neela wrote:Have they scanned bank transactions vs tax filed (or not) against the same PAN number?

Banks (every branch of every bank) has to send "some reports up" based on some criteria set on each account. Basically deposits and with drawals. These are all collated at the bank level and goes to the RBI as well. This scheme was in place at least for the last 4-5 years. It became strict, as some scheduled banks in Kerala were noticed to be taking deposits even for huge amounts without checking for PAN # etc.

I think it is a mistake to see the demonetization effort in a literal way, and judge it as a "success" or "failure." It would be amazing to me if an effort like this yielded some significant positive results, and is judged as a "success."

And here the Govt. has to be much more focused. Because if it is the media & opposition who decides on what is success & failure, then the excercise is already a failure. Infact for the media & opposition, Modi is a failure right from the day he was born. So there has to be some real visual explanations on the whole scheme. Perhaps even to the extent of putting up a board next to a new road stating - "road built using black money seized from M/s Pappa Jehadi and Baby Jehadi of the socialist heaven on the year 2016".

MohdKav wrote: Today in cochin, people were caught with 37.5 lac new currency; where did it come from ?

The money was traced to have come from Tamil Nadu. The people who were caught with the money have also given the details. And I feel no one has ever said that new notes were not getting misappropriated. But it would not be right to say that this is the only thing happening in Kerala and else where.