Indian Missiles and Munitions Discussion - June'14

[ramana]

So what.happened to Astra low level intercepts tests?

[Supratik]

There is no missile called Surya officially. Zee news named it as such. What they are talking about is basically the Agni VI.

[Bheeshma]

1. Study the flight paths of Agni-1P and Shaurya and you would realize that there is no overlap. Range is only one parameter.
2. Agni 4 is Agni 2P. Agni-2P/4 will replace Agni-2. The productionized Agni-3 is not what was shown on RD parades . All lessons learnt on Agni-2P/4 have been applied to Agni-3. Effectively, what is fielded is Agni-3P. It has a larger payload/range than the Agni-2P/4.
3. Let's wait for Agni 6 to come out. It will not be Agni-5.

The A-3P is the 22 tonne version? It still caries one war head and has range of 3.5-5 Km. Same as A-4 17 tonne and 4K range for 1 tonne payload.

[SSridhar]

The UN Security Council has explicit regulations on whether India can develop ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons.

Does anyone know what regulations China is talking about?

^^ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6863&p=2094349#p2094156

But I guess, since we are already part of MTCR, we don't have to worry about this.

GShankar, that UNSC 1172 Resolution is just another of those useless resolutions that the UN & UNSC pour out every year. It is not binding on us. So, we don't care. What is more binding on China is the recent PCA award under UNCLOS in the Indo-China Sea issue that China has to abide by. What is more binding is the IAEA guidelines that China is violating. China should not be allowed to take a moral high ground in the Agni-V test. As ACM Arup Raha said, we have every right to build up whatever deterrence we feel i right for us.

By the way, MTCR is not a UN Organization. We have been testing all sorts of nuclear-capable missiles that are indigenously designed, developed and fabricated even without being an MTCR member.

[ranjan.rao]

There is no missile called Surya officially. Zee news named it as such. What they are talking about is basically the Agni VI.

There may not be any existing missile, but this pre dates even Zee network. Surya name is in circles since early 90s. I too remember reading it in one of the India today

[Indranil]

1. Study the flight paths of Agni-1P and Shaurya and you would realize that there is no overlap. Range is only one parameter.
2. Agni 4 is Agni 2P. Agni-2P/4 will replace Agni-2. The productionized Agni-3 is not what was shown on RD parades . All lessons learnt on Agni-2P/4 have been applied to Agni-3. Effectively, what is fielded is Agni-3P. It has a larger payload/range than the Agni-2P/4.
3. Let's wait for Agni 6 to come out. It will not be Agni-5.

The A-3P is the 22 tonne version? It still caries one war head and has range of 3.5-5 Km. Same as A-4 17 tonne and 4K range for 1 tonne payload.

How much it can carry and how far is classified. But if it is indeed the same technology as 2P as Tessy Thomas had alluded to in a talk, then more fuel equals more payload/range.

[Bheeshma]

Yes, and then it fill fall into Agni-5 territory (5-8K). Now we will say but Agni-5 is 8-10 K. In which case why do we need Agni-6 unless it is our own SS-18 version with half a dozen MaRV's mean to be a final solution kind of weapon.

[rgosain]

What is also binding on the PRC is the Masood Azhar ruling by the UN.

China should be challenged to put 1172 on the table, 18 years after they dictated it to Clinton, whose State Department drafted and typed it out for them, and presented it to the UN security council.
The period of 97-99 should be seen as the high water mark of PRC-USA strategic partnership where Zhang Zemin and Clinton sought to carve the globe into two spheres, not unlike the Papal edicts of the renaissance period. For many, CNN, with the likes of Ammanpor who was married to Jamie Rubin at THE SD, was called the Chinese News Network, and the Albright's SD became the mouthpiece of Jaing Zemin in the period following POK2.
Many of us who were on this forum, during the period of 97-99, were concerned about the extent of the combined US-PRC containment of India which was characterised by wholesale sanctions and technology denials via 4-letter treaties, whilst the PRC and France had continued testing The POK2 tests were a result of these cummulative threats and open warfare against India, culminating with Kargil, in 99, which was initiated by the PRC to unseat the GOI.
Raking up 1172 now, will show the US how the PRC payed and played the Clintons, and how the US establishment turned a blind eye to PRC's proliferation and strategic build-up, but most of all, it will remind Indians of dangers posed by the PRC.
In this regard, China should put up or shut-up

[Neshant]

Replace the management and engineering team working on the hardware/software of the missile instead of shutting the program down.
Re-do the electronics or software if need be. It should not take more than a year.
This can't be that difficult. GPS/GLONASS + INS guidance systems are old hat by now. Hell even hobbyists can make this stuff.
The program can be put back on track under the right management & team.

The missile is needed because it has the range which a super-sonic missile cannot achieve.
Do not shut it down.

________



India’s Nirbhay cruise missile program could be axed after a recent test failure.

India’s nuclear-capable Nirbhay long-range cruise missile program will likely be shut down following yet another failed test launch, a source within the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) told local media.

No official announcement has been made to date and the program reportedly will be reviewed momentarily by the Indian Ministry of Defense, after which a decision will be made.

The project was originally launched in 2004 and projected to be completed by the end of 2016. The Nirbhay is a subsonic land attack cruise missile armed with a 300-kilogram warhead capable of reaching speeds of 0.6-0.7 Mach, and designed to be launched from air, sea, and land.

Since March 2013, three Nirbhay test launches have been classified as failures. “The project has been plagued with difficulties as the scientists are still struggling to fix the problems in the flight control software and navigation system while some others point fingers at the hardware,” The New Indian Express reports.

Following a test launch on December 21, which took place at the Integrated Test Range on Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Odisha, the missile had to be destroyed mid-air after it strayed from its programmed course.

“The booster engine in Nirbhay’s first stage started working. The missile lifted off from its launcher. But it started veering dangerously towards one side in less than two minutes of its lift-off,” DRDO sources told The Hindu.

“It could not be ascertained which is defective, whether the software or hardware, but Nirbhay missile failed in its fourth attempt,” a DRDO source revealed to The New Indian Express. Only one missile test launch on October 17, 2014 met all test perimeters so far.

Various analysts have questioned the Indian military’s requirement for a subsonic cruise missile given that the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, capable of traveling at speeds of up to Mach 3.0 and available in surface-launched, ship-launched, and air-launched variants, is already entering service (See: “India to Test Fire Nuclear Capable Missile From Fighter Jet”).

However, in comparison to the Nirbhay, the BrahMos, a Indo-Russian joint venture, has a much shorter maximum range of 290 kilometers. Nevertheless, in October, during the 16th Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation, India and Russia agreed to double the range of the BrahMos cruise missile to 600 kilometers, following India’s accession to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

As I alluded to last week, the cancellation of the Nirbhay program would in particular be bad news for India’s first domestically developed and built ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN) class, the Arihant-class, which was slated to be fitted with India’s domestically produced cruise missile.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/is-india ... e-program/

[Pratyush]

No harm in reconstituting the program for the purposes of a fresh start. Let the lessons learned be used for fresh start.

[Supratik]

Agni 4 is 1 tonne warhead, Agni 3 or 3P (tech borrowed from A4) is 2.5 tonne warhead. Agni 6 main purpose is MIRV and MARV (Agni 5 has limited capability) and also base for K5 SLBM. Agni 1P will replace Prithvis, Agni 1 and 2. Shaurya has different profile. So different missiles for different purposes.

[GShankar]

Does anyone know what regulations China is talking about?

^^ viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6863&p=2094349#p2094156

But I guess, since we are already part of MTCR, we don't have to worry about this.

GShankar, that UNSC 1172 Resolution is just another of those useless resolutions that the UN & UNSC pour out every year. It is not binding on us. So, we don't care. What is more binding on China is the recent PCA award under UNCLOS in the Indo-China Sea issue that China has to abide by. What is more binding is the IAEA guidelines that China is violating. China should not be allowed to take a moral high ground in the Agni-V test. As ACM Arup Raha said, we have every right to build up whatever deterrence we feel i right for us.

By the way, MTCR is not a UN Organization. We have been testing all sorts of nuclear-capable missiles that are indigenously designed, developed and fabricated even without being an MTCR member.

Thanks for the clarification!

[sudeepj]

Replace the management and engineering team working on the hardware/software of the missile instead of shutting the program down.
Re-do the electronics or software if need be. It should not take more than a year.
This can't be that difficult. GPS/GLONASS + INS guidance systems are old hat by now. Hell even hobbyists can make this stuff.
The program can be put back on track under the right management & team.

The missile is needed because it has the range which a super-sonic missile cannot achieve.
Do not shut it down.

________

India’s Nirbhay cruise missile program could be axed after a recent test failure.

India’s nuclear-capable Nirbhay long-range cruise missile program will likely be shut down following yet another failed test launch, a source within the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) told local media.

No official announcement has been made to date and the program reportedly will be reviewed momentarily by the Indian Ministry of Defense, after which a decision will be made.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/is-india ... e-program/

If all ADE programs are in trouble, this is an organization that can use a shake up. The directors and top management should indeed be removed to more suitable positions and an infusion of outside people with a track record should take place. The programs, Rustom, Nirbhay etc. are utterly required. Further, I dont understand why none of our missiles are tested in a campaign/mission mode... Ideally, we would see one launch every quarter or every month with issues found in one test being fixed in the next.

[ramana]

Issues cant be fixed in month.
Root cause and then effective corrective action is needed.
Fact that one of the tests was successful means the fault is in mfg of components.

Some idiot wants to axe as he never had to design anything.

[sudeepj]

Issues cant be fixed in month.
Root cause and then effective corrective action is needed.
Fact that one of the tests was successful means the fault is in mfg of components.

Some idiot wants to axe as he never had to design anything.

Issues certainly cant be fixed in a month, but organizations that are consistently under performing need change. Especially when they are handling programs of vital national importance.

[Karthik S]

We have had 1 successful test fire of Nirbhay. It can't be a fluke that it flew longer than expected. Why would we scrap the project.

[pravula]

We have had 1 successful test fire of Nirbhay. It can't be a fluke that it flew longer than expected. Why would we scrap the project.

Repeatable and reproducible results are crucial to any weapons development.

[Karthik S]

Ofcourse, what we require now is trouble shooting and problem solving. If bringing onboard new technical experts or managers needs to ascertained. The weapon has evolved enough from drawing board stage and is too critical to be scrapped.

[Neshant]

I don't know what "flew longer than expected" means in a test but a program that has been running for over 12 to 14 years and still cannot achieve results is a disaster by any measure. To be sure, this does not sound like a complex project. It's a sub sonic missile that has to navigate to a target.

The program needs to be urgently reviewed by a competent external engineering team and the management dropped asap.

Within a year with competent people, the program can be put on track.

[John]

I think it's case of throwing too many functionality into first iteration rather than progressively improving on base design like Brahmos or Hyunmoo 3 or TLAM. Now it's case of trying debug various issues popping up all over the place and it turns into a case of whack a mole.

[Cain Marko]

^ that might just be it....loiter capability and what not was being aimed at...

[sum]

I think it's case of throwing too many functionality into first iteration rather than progressively improving on base design like Brahmos or Hyunmoo 3 or TLAM. Now it's case of trying debug various issues popping up all over the place and it turns into a case of whack a mole.

^^ Agree. Maybe biting more than we could chew in the 1st attempt.
Atleast in this space of cruise missiles, we could have been more incremental since there was no danger of being overruled for imports since there were no options available ( now is a different matter due to the MTCR no longer a issue and Brahmos itself magically gaining in its range after we entered the MTCR)

Of course, Hindsight is 50/50 and every armchair genius can give his 10 paisa but that was my thought esp when talking to any ADE folks ( which was always a depressing thing since the kinds of stories heard from them about the state of affairs in ADE made even a hardcore jingo pretty disheartened)

[Karthik S]

Pigeon in a conference described importance being a missile power. Hope people are putting these updates into his ears.

[Karthik S]

I don't know what "flew longer than expected" means in a test but a program that has been running for over 12 to 14 years and still cannot achieve results is a disaster by any measure. To be sure, this does not sound like a complex project. It's a sub sonic missile that has to navigate to a target.

It was expected to cover around 800 KM but it did 1010 KM IIRC.

The program needs to be urgently reviewed by a competent external engineering team and the management dropped asap.

Within a year with competent people, the program can be put on track.

+1

[Neshant]

The day will come when India will have to conduct cruise missile strikes on terrorist targets in Afghanistan.

This missile will be needed then - even if it has to fly through Pakistan to get to its target.

The Nirbhay program cannot be wound up and declared a failure.

A new management & engineering team has to be brought in to get this project back on track.

This missile is perhaps more important than the Bhramos itself. It is more than likely to be used against terrorists in Kargil type situations or dish out an ass whopping to Taliban terrorists involved in plane hijackings circa late 90s.

It also has great prospects for terminal guidance by soldiers on the ground near the target marking a GPS position with range finder binoculars (e.g. a mountain cavern) to be struck. A shorter range (and lower cost) version would be an excellent substitute for hundreds of inaccurate artillery shells and would provide precision on-demand strikes.

[shiv]

Don't want to sound cynical but India needs to hit terrorist targets in Pakistan, forget Afghanistan. That aside cruise missile strikes are useless against terrorists. The US made a big deal about long range accurate cruise missiles - but apart from high drama they have actually contributed very little to anything other than a good military-industry economy

On the artillery thread - 2 mouse clicks away from here we have an illustration of the sort of firepower that is needed to intimidate. An artillery piece that lays down 6 round in 60 seconds. Five such pieces will pulverize an area with 900 rounds in 30 minutes. Can anyone even imagine that sort of firepower being projected by cruise missiles being fired from 1000 km away? With conventional warheads I think they are over rated for anything other than single pinpoint targets like radars or C&C sites, ships etc. Not even runways.

[Yagnasri]

I do not agree with that assessment, Shiv sir. With Nirbhay in an anti-ship role, we are in a position to deny any surface ship access to Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

[Neshant]

If an operator on the ground can catch a bunch of them in a building at once.. they will be dog meat within 30 mins.

A whole bunch of guys have been "shaheeded" by US drones with none of these fatalities announced.

Drones strikes have caused terrible casualties among civilians. But they have also significantly thinned out the herd so to speak.

I don't see Nirbhay being needed much at sea since Bhramos already fills that role.

But as a low cost system for attacking land targets which artillery cannot destroy, now that's worthwhile.

[shiv]

I do not agree with that assessment, Shiv sir. With Nirbhay in an anti-ship role, we are in a position to deny any surface ship access to Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

You probably missed the last line of my post

I think they are over rated for anything other than single pinpoint targets like radars or C&C sites, ships etc.

[shiv]

If an operator on the ground can catch a bunch of them in a building at once.. they will be dog meat within 30 mins.

This is the problem. Just like the western meme that jihad is conducted by "poor and uneducated Muslims" the idea that these people are illiterate yobs goes only so far. With countries like Pakistan (initially CIA backed) and Turkey actually training jihadis - they show military training and discipline and spread out, and do not get caught bunched up. They take casualties but do not get wiped out. No cruise missile strike conducted by any nation has actually ended or won any war.

Cruise missiles are not effective anti-personnel weapons unless, as you say - those personnel bunch up and wait to get hit like dumb mofos - which is what WE like to think they are.

Bunkers, radar sites, ships, control centers etc are all fair game. But in the anti-personnel role cruise missiles are expensive and ineffective and good only for propaganda videos.

[Karthik S]

LRCM are effective against high value targets (military and economic). For anti personnel, UCAVs are the way to go. We really need to get both Nirbhay and Rustom II or Khan's UCAVs ASAP.

[Neshant]

Won't be able to fly a UCAV over Pakistan - slow moving and prone to interception. Much easier to fire a low cost Nirbhay which makes a surprise appearance at a gathering of bad guys. Low flying, low tech, low cost with self-destruct mechanism in case it does not make it to the target.

India will almost certainly attack a long range land target in Afghanistan perhaps in conflicts ahead. And its not going to be aircraft or UCAVs flying to Afghanistan and back that will do it. A land attack cruise missile is just what the doctor ordered.

[shiv]

Won't be able to fly a UCAV over Pakistan - slow moving and prone to interception. Much easier to fire a low cost Nirbhay which makes a surprise appearance at a gathering of bad guys. Low flying, low tech, low cost with self-destruct mechanism in case it does not make it to the target.

India will almost certainly attack a long range land target in Afghanistan perhaps in conflicts ahead. And its not going to be aircraft or UCAVs flying to Afghanistan and back that will do it. A land attack cruise missile is just what the doctor ordered.

Brahmos is a better bet here. Afghanistan is a bogey. Our problems are in Pakistan

That aside I cannot understand why, on BRF we are so afraid of confronting Pakistan with our best weapons.Not just this post - but lots of people talk about protecting our best weapons as soon as we get them. Keep Sukhois in the center of India. Keep ships and subs out of harm's way. Dont send men. Send robots, machines etc.

To me there is a mix of scifi and Americanitis here

[John]

I do not agree with that assessment, Shiv sir. With Nirbhay in an anti-ship role, we are in a position to deny any surface ship access to Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

There is reason why US abandoned tomahawk anti ship it was impractical because of its slow speed by the time it reaches the target. The target will be far away from its original location.

Only way around is mid course guidance updates and/or have missile fly at high altitude increase its tracking radius. Latter will not work since nirbhay doesn't have room for big seeker like Brahmos and speed makes it quite vulnerable to SAM at high altitude.

[Neshant]

Cruise missiles are not guided by radar so there is nothing to track. They typically use GPS + INS guidance and onboard topographic maps.
You can only use UAVs in areas where the airspace is under total control and there is a sat comm link to the UAV.. and a nearby base for it to land should there be problems onboard.
A land attack cruise missile is a fire & forget device.
It can be coupled with human intelligence on the ground to direct the missile to a specific point in the terminal stage with something that looks like a binoculars (its actually a laser range finder that pin points and calculates GPS coordinates). That info can be transmitted to the cruise missile via RF or Satcom while it is in-flight.

Anyway all the Nirbhay project is currently required to do is strike a fixed target. If they can't even do that, heads need to roll in management.

[Singha]

Shutting down a lacm project is like going to a prom dance with no date....just not done. Rename and salvage workable modules by all means but it just cannot be dropped unless usa is willing to sell us killswitched tlam or russia kalibr. Last i heard usa was not even willing for the slam er lacm based on harpoon!

There is no option but to make our own. Issues with rustom indicate ade is in no shape for nirbhay

Some other agency like ada or rci will have to be brought in....just as long running failure of bulava under moscow thermal instt was resolved after its director was sacked by putin and engineers from slbm shop makeyeev brought in...ada has full fcs exp via tejas and rci due to agni series has both fcs and qc expertise. Together they should be able to make progress.

[kurup]

New NAVAREA Warning isuued for 2000km missile test

INDIA EAST COAST – BAY OF BENGAL AND NE INDIAN OCEAN (.) CHARTS 31 351 INT 71 (.)

EXPERIMENTAL FLIGHT TRIAL SCHEDULED FROM ITR FROM 020400-020800 AND 060300-060700 UTC JAN 17 IN DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY

20-48.43N 087-00.57E, 18-12.37N 086-07.11E, 02-40.61N 087-05.29E, 02-44.41N 088-37.82E, 02-55.80N 090-09.74E, 18-24.16N 088-30.44E, 20-49.15N 087-09.37E

2. CANCEL THIS MSG 060800 UTC JAN 17

[John]

Cruise missiles are not guided by radar so there is nothing to track. They typically use GPS + INS guidance and onboard topographic maps.
You can only use UAVs in areas where the airspace is under total control and there is a sat comm link to the UAV.. and a nearby base for it to land should there be problems onboard.
A land attack cruise missile is a fire & forget device.
It can be coupled with human intelligence on the ground to direct the missile to a specific point in the terminal stage with something that looks like a binoculars (its actually a laser range finder that pin points and calculates GPS coordinates). That info can be transmitted to the cruise missile via RF or Satcom while it is in-flight.

Anyway all the Nirbhay project is currently required to do is strike a fixed target. If they can't even do that, heads need to roll in management.

That was regarding ASuW Nirbhay variant that was discussed earlier which would likely had an active radar seeker similar to Anti shipping variant of Tomahawk. Though it is pretty unlikely that variant will ever see daylight, my point was such a missile is not that critical.

[Cain Marko]

I do not agree with that assessment, Shiv sir. With Nirbhay in an anti-ship role, we are in a position to deny any surface ship access to Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

There is reason why US abandoned tomahawk anti ship it was impractical because of its slow speed by the time it reaches the target. The target will be far away from its original location.

Only way around is mid course guidance updates and/or have missile fly at high altitude increase its tracking radius. Latter will not work since nirbhay doesn't have room for big seeker like Brahmos and speed makes it quite vulnerable to SAM at high altitude.

What about something like the shaurya for anti carrier roles. Hypersonic and can reach 1200km in 10 minutes. Fat enough to put a large seeker for terminal maneuvering for pin point accuracy. Wonder if we can have a few of these on 10k ton ddg for land attack as well.

[rakall]

New NAVAREA Warning isuued for 2000km missile test

INDIA EAST COAST – BAY OF BENGAL AND NE INDIAN OCEAN (.) CHARTS 31 351 INT 71 (.)

EXPERIMENTAL FLIGHT TRIAL SCHEDULED FROM ITR FROM 020400-020800 AND 060300-060700 UTC JAN 17 IN DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY

20-48.43N 087-00.57E, 18-12.37N 086-07.11E, 02-40.61N 087-05.29E, 02-44.41N 088-37.82E, 02-55.80N 090-09.74E, 18-24.16N 088-30.44E, 20-49.15N 087-09.37E

2. CANCEL THIS MSG 060800 UTC JAN 17

User trial of Agni-IV !!!