Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 10:25

I believe russians dalliance with china started long back in early 90s with
- huge sale of su27 and su30
- permission to 'clone' the su27 and replace with chinese systems progressively
- s300 huge sale like 200 TELARs (sean o connor SOC had a good writeup on this)
- sales of 636 model kilos and permission to use whatever was desired for Yuan
- Klub missiles
- AAMs
- possible sale of yakhont in full or technology
- moskits
- sovremeniy ddgs with sunburn
- RD93 engine

despite all this India was willing to play ball and give preference to russia. but the straw that broke camels back was iffy contractual support, high downtimes due to long lead times to supply spares, cheating on contracted items like T90 TOT, decay in concerns like Ilyushin......vs on time , high uptime american products albeit at higher initial opex but good lifecycle and durability.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 10:27

by not retaliating immediately Putin might be creating room for DT to water down these anf other forthcoming measures and start off on a good note with russia instead of being boxed into the trap that BO is creating as a poison pill.

he can always expel 35 later with no warning.

the gotus has also named five top GRU officials as complicit in the hacking and published their known details.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 10:27

Russian SF in Allepo

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 10:37

Singha wrote:despite all this India was willing to play ball and give preference to russia. but the straw that broke camels back was iffy contractual support, high downtimes due to long lead times to supply spares, cheating on contracted items like T90 TOT, decay in concerns like Ilyushin......vs on time , high uptime american products albeit at higher initial opex but good lifecycle and durability.

I have heard this argument many time that India defence relation has broken but data shows other wise , New deals S-400 , New Akula under nego , more T-90MS buy , more Talwar class frigate , Brahmos Hypersonic , FGFA,Ka-226 .....they are confirmed by MOD

Seriously speaking even today Russian equipment in Indian armed forces is hovering around 60-70 % and with the new deals and with others like US. Israel etc , I dont see coming down to 50 % in the next 10-15 years.

High uptime is also a function of cost you pay , Look at Rafale cost like $200-250 million look at MKI cost $60 million , MOD is more than happy to pay $200 million to get high opex which is function of spares while if you ask MOD to pay even double the cost of MKI $120 million to maintain high opex it will frown. Uptimes projected for 36 Rafale for that cost 70-75 % , Uptimes for around 200 MKI we have today 55-60 % but cost difference between the two more than 300 % or 3x

We pay relatively cheap for Russian equipment and we get similar uptimes for the cost we pay and they make bulk of equipment , if we end up paying even close to western cost for Russian equipment we will get similar or better uptimes. Imagine having 272 MKI each costing even say 100 Million versus 36 Rafale.

Russian aircraft uptime in Syria is around 98 % as per Russian MOD number of aircraft 50-55 and now its close to 1 years or perhaps more than 1 but such uptimes also comes with cost , there is no free lunch even for Russian MOD

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 10:57

^^ the host AF always have high uptime but remember the russian detachment in syria is a small, carefully picked elite force amply resupplied by air and sea. one cannot compare entire fleet uptime vs a operational detachment. I am sure IAF or any other competent AF could also turn in similar figures .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 11:51

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... overnorate

2017 predictions aleppo

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 11:56

Turns out the so called spy nest compounds were camps for diplomat kids....putin has now uncorked a judo move by inviting all usa diplomat kids to a new year festival in the kremlin

Lol ..holding up mirror

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 12:00

Singha wrote:^^ the host AF always have high uptime but remember the russian detachment in syria is a small, carefully picked elite force amply resupplied by air and sea. one cannot compare entire fleet uptime vs a operational detachment. I am sure IAF or any other competent AF could also turn in similar figures .

Yes , Even Rafale is 36 aircraft with high uptimes ( 70-75 % ) and I have seen some figures on internet which says 80 % , but you know we paid $8.8 billion for just 36 aircraft with 5 years of guranteed uptimes and life cycle support.

Compare that 272 MKI will cost MOD ~ $ 11 billion , so just paying ~ $2.5 billion more we are getting 236 more Sukhois , Local Manufacutring , TOT

You see that is apple and oranges comparision , You cant get both you cant pay penuts and expect aircraft will give you 70 % uptimes while on the other hand you want to buy gold plated aircraft pay many times more and then complain why you are not getting the same for what you paid penuts.

Let MOD spend like 10-15 billion more of Sukhoi get Life cycle support , build 5 years inventory of spares in India like they are doing for Rafale , We already have local support MRO etc for Sukhoi in terms of sunk cost & then do a apple to apple comparision.

On Syrian front I am saying the same thing , relatively all detachment , paying more to get uptimes is easily doable if you pay more.

Even french Airforce Rafale fleet has high uptimes because as we discussed in other thread half of their fleet are not counted as active fleet

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 12:06

Ok let me do some inflation adjusted cost for MKI as per MOD figures each Sukhoi today cost $60 million , Let me do simple multiplication of 272 x 60 =
~ $16 billion that included TOT , Customisation of MKI , Infra , Local Manuf all included

Rafale $ 8.8 Billion for 36 aircraft ( no TOT ,Local Manuf ) each aircraft cost $244 million ( paid upfront for 5 years of LCC and 75 % uptimes )

Price difference in todays price between the two $7.2 billion , Extra Sukhoi for that price difference 236 more aircraft

Sukhoi uptimes today 55-60 % , Rafale uptimes projected 70-75 % , I am using an old figure for MKI uptimes may be like 1 year old Parrikar said that by end of this year MKI uptimes will be higher with the final goal to get 70 % uptime for MKI fleet

Just do the simple math and tell me what did MOD paid for both and what did it get in return ?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 12:13

Singha wrote:Turns out the so called spy nest compounds were camps for diplomat kids....putin has now uncorked a judo move by inviting all usa diplomat kids to a new year festival in the kremlin

Lol ..holding up mirror

Obama hates putin , so he see every thing wrong happening in Syria , Around the world , even the election Loss as Putins hand

Obama are typical leftist part , Putin are typical rightist they both cant love each other , Republican are on the right side so they can have a more working relation with Putin like George Bush Had.

Leftist party loves China , So Obama did all the concenssion with China and dealt with kids glove in past 8 years nothing serious beyond rhetoric ....Right party wont have the same love for leftist communist china.

In the end its all about Ideology

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 31 Dec 2016 13:29

Y. Kanan wrote: It's not that simple and you know this; suffice to say that successive Indian govt's definitely contributed to the current realignment taking place and left us worse off than we were already. You and I will have to agree to disagree as this is not even the correct thread for it. This is a topic for the Geopolitical thread, not here.

There was no need to start here then.
The only thing imho, desh has done wrong is not talking loudly about supporting Russia when its plane was shot down by Turkey. And a little less loudly but nevertheless supporting Russia on Ukraine and Syria.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 13:54

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Dec 2016 14:47

Austin wrote:
Singha wrote:Turns out the so called spy nest compounds were camps for diplomat kids....putin has now uncorked a judo move by inviting all usa diplomat kids to a new year festival in the kremlin

Lol ..holding up mirror
Obama hates putin , so he see every thing wrong happening in Syria , Around the world , even the election Loss as Putins hand

Obama are typical leftist part , Putin are typical rightist they both cant love each other , Republican are on the right side so they can have a more working relation with Putin like George Bush Had.

Leftist party loves China , So Obama did all the concenssion with China and dealt with kids glove in past 8 years nothing serious beyond rhetoric ....Right party wont have the same love for leftist communist china.

In the end its all about Ideology

Obama doesn't assassinate his domestic political opposition nor enrich himself via corporate mining and oil interests with overseas hidden corporations and banks.

What a friend India has in Putin.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 14:53

neither rafale or sukhoi will make india a great power. its a band from "leasing a BMW" to "partially building a corolla" - all have strings and limitations attached. OEM support can be a tap that can be reduced to a trickle to inflict pain, despite any contracts. the buyer has no leverage, we cannot throw away 300 sukhois like one can throw away a bajaj scooter.

we need to move to "fully building a civic and a hyundai H1 van(bomber)" from the nuts and bolts upward.

may not look like much, but big boxy smooth and gets the job done - and a ton of suitcases er 1000lb garudas in the back

question is - is the current state a stable vassal state or we are ready and willing to make the sacrifices and effort needed to move forward?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 14:58

comparing russian capitalism(25 yrs old) to american capitalism(250yrs) is only apt if one rewinds the clock for america by around a 100 years ... the age of the jp morgans, carnegies, vanderbilts, stanfords and other "robber" barons with those astonishing seaside villas in places like newport RI...working classes slaving in steam powered sweatshops....farm labour ruthlessly exploited...wars of plunder and control in central america... they too wetted their beaks on the natural resources of the vast continent.

everything is a evolutionary process- even non living entities like societies and economies. just as india cannot evolve into a thailand overnight, neither can russia == america overnight.

with time, high level corruption and plunder becomes more soothing and polished and "legit" like in usa/uk/france. some also rans like germany and japan never evolve to the uber levels of the anglo-dutch-norman combine...they keep on making cars and robots and living peacefully thinking it matters - well he who controls the financial levers of the world matter more.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 15:17

http://english.almanar.com.lb/145495

The Turkish newspaper Zaman announced the preliminary investigations revealed that the Russian envoy’s killer fought for Nusra Front terrorist group in Aleppo in 2015, adding that he, with the knowledge of the Turkish leadership, ferociously contributed to the militants’ operations in the city.

Turkish police officer Mevlut Mert Altintas’ psychological background indicates that he murdered a number of Syrian soldiers and that some of his colleagues were also killed, according to the paper which added that since then he had lived in a bloody quagmire and desired the act of killing.

“He also used to reiterate his intention to kill without revealing the identity of his target.”

Last week, Altintas asked his commander to let him join the Russian embassy security apparatus and started monitoring the envoy and preparing for his crime, Zaman newspaper pointed out.

“No one could predict that the Russian embassy guard from the Turkish security agencies would be preparing to kill the Russian envoy to Ankara.”

Source: Al-Manar Website

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 15:19

barzani peshmerga bullying yezidis in shingal

https://twitter.com/EzidiNaKurden/statu ... 8442990592

Ezidis are not Kurds ‏@EzidiNaKurden 21h21 hours ago
Peshmerga attacking Ezidi in Shingal: "You should be ashamed to call yourselves Kurdish."
The Ezidi say: "We are not Kurds, we are Ezidis."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 15:21

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Dec 2016 15:25

Singha wrote:Turns out the so called spy nest compounds were camps for diplomat kids....putin has now uncorked a judo move by inviting all usa diplomat kids to a new year festival in the kremlin
Lol ..holding up mirror

Wow. Taking the jhapad into overdrive. Wonder if the Syrian Ambassador will be dancing with the bibi of the Turkish Amb. at the ball.
Sadly little of this will be reported in the newly propaganda-free US MSM. They'll probably show ATF in full gear swarming over the children's camp in the US looking for hackers. Throw in a few tanks and APCs like Waco for good measure.

And I thought Palin was an idiot. Ombaba has her surpassed by miles.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 31 Dec 2016 15:28

A war in camouflage :

Russian SF seen wearing Hezbollah patch

US SF seen wearing YPG insignia

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 15:34

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
13. The Russians haven't forgotten their medics, jet pilots & Ambassador - they will smile & shake Erdogan's hand ...& slowly destroy him.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
12. SDF has also outwitted the Turks at every turn: destroying Daesh, increasing its strength & influence, waiting patiently 2 make its move

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
11. At some point, when the Jihadis are sufficiently ruined, Putin will quietly arm SDF against the Turks & Euphrates Shield thugs.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
10. Erdogan thinks he is clever striking deals, but the Russians are vastly superior in tactical and strategic thinking as we saw in Aleppo.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
9. In any case, it's more likely that the ceasefire will break down very soon and Turkey will be seen to have betrayed 50% of its Jihadis.
1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
8. The ceasefire doesn't mean that Putin & Assad now like the Turks - merely that they have found a way to defeat them as they did in Aleppo

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
7. Once the Jihadis have weakened themselves sufficiently & Turkey is suffering badly, Russia will put Euphrates Shield back into its box.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
6. If the ceasefire results in Jihadi in-fighting, Turkey will get dragged into an unwinnable fight to defend its favourite terrorists.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
5. The Euphrates Shield thugs would not be immune to jihadi in-fighting - AQ has already arrested some of them and it will only get better.

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
4. If the Ceasefire results in internecine warfare between the Jihadis in Syria this will benefit DFNS/Rojava enormously as they sit & watch

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
3. The ceasefire would mean that Turkey would side with the jihadis it can control in an effort, probably futile, to destroy AQ in Syria

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
2. The Ceasefire, if implemented, would mean half the Jihadis in Syria taking it upon themselves to destroy the other half

Doloroso ‏@Pyrmha108 Dec 29
1. Not sure why there's so much despondency in some Kurdish accounts regarding what the ceasefire means for the future of Rojava

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 16:36

TSJones wrote:
Austin wrote:
Obama hates putin , so he see every thing wrong happening in Syria , Around the world , even the election Loss as Putins hand

Obama are typical leftist part , Putin are typical rightist they both cant love each other , Republican are on the right side so they can have a more working relation with Putin like George Bush Had.

Leftist party loves China , So Obama did all the concenssion with China and dealt with kids glove in past 8 years nothing serious beyond rhetoric ....Right party wont have the same love for leftist communist china.

In the end its all about Ideology
Obama doesn't assassinate his domestic political opposition nor enrich himself via corporate mining and oil interests with overseas hidden corporations and banks.

What a friend India has in Putin.

Yes right there are tons of evidence in Western Press that Putin has assassinated his political opposition and that is so much believable since it comes from such an impartial source

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 31 Dec 2016 16:53

Singha wrote:everything is a evolutionary process- even non living entities like societies and economies. just as india cannot evolve into a thailand overnight, neither can russia == america overnight

Russia needs an economy that has to increase its manufacturing/industry that currently stands at 32 % of GDP to much higher , for comparision in China it is 50 % .

As far has American economy goes Carl Ichan said this about US Service Economy when asked , BTW He will be Trump Advisor now

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/ ... trump.html

Icahn poked fun at the use of the term "service economy" by pundits explaining job numbers and predicted the downfall of the dollar.

"I still question the pundits that said, 'Oh, it's great, we're a service economy,'" Icahn said. "What does it do? What does that mean? We sit around and just text each other. What do we produce?"

"And eventually who's going to take our paper?" he asked. "We're living off imports that everybody loves the dollar, but sooner or later that's just going to blow up in one week. I mean, it's going to happen. It's happened in history. I don't think it's debatable. I don't even think the economic gurus of the Democratic party are going to debate the fact that we must be able to compete."

Icahn said the stock market is a mirage and he's not the only person in his circles who think that.

"The facts are today that we as a nation don't produce," Icahn said. "As I've said before -- and by the way, if you look at what i consider to be very, very smart guys, smart investors, they all feel sort of what I feel. That we are not producing as a nation. We're fooling ourselves. And the stock market is a mirage. That's all I can say. I'm not the only one saying that."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 17:10

atleast 'resources players' like brazil, canada, russia, australia can sell rocks and ride the storm out

america still produces a lot of non-services stuff like minerals, food, machinery, software, media, electronics, military gear, cars , planes , telecom, construction material, chemicals, metals, books, education ...

I guess the biggest hit will be on Bartania and its city of london

there is a parasitic class in dens like nyc/londonistan/paree/offshore havens who "move money around" and "invest for HNI class" and take a tidy cut of the proceeds to make a great living. also custodians of stolen wealth like the swiss and island havens act as outer rings feeding this inner ring.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Dec 2016 17:26

Joy To The World! UK barks at BO/Kerry SDOTUS whines

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 17:44

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 14h14 hours ago
Russians are playing @CNN and @NBCNews for such fools - funny to watch, they don't have a clue! @FoxNews totally gets it!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 17:47

russian consulate in UK again trolls HMG by running a poll on the UKs silence about syria ceasefire deal

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/stat ... 3968147456

Russian Embassy, UK ‏@RussianEmbassy Dec 30
No UK reaction to historic Russia-Turkey-Iran brokered all-Syria truce. Why?

choices are
jealousy
FCO on holiday
cant believe

so far jealousy is the readers choice

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 17:51

Russian Embassy, UK ‏@RussianEmbassy Dec 29
President Obama expels 35 diplomats in Cold War deja vu. As everybody, incl <american flag icon here> people, will be glad to see the last of this hapless Adm.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Dec 2016 19:42

Wonder where is Georgi Arbatov. He was a classic commentator, Soviet diplo who lived in the US. You had to read his ripostes to the US media to see what true diplo class is.

He fought a lone battle. Would be so gratified to see the sophistication of RT.com and Lavrov, compared to the Brezhnev/ Kosygin era.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 19:53

zakharova is not slouch either.
the UK embassy twitter also sure has a sharp witted player in charge.

btw Ulan, rt.com budget is slightly ahead of the bbc world service now around $400 mil annual...in a short few years they have taken apart the monopoly of western narrative on the air waves. money well invested I think - the cost of 2 rafales onlee - without the plug n play ejection seat - such accessories are extra

and you should see the theatrical russian defence ministry briefing center a swank new billion $$ building with rows and rows of alert operators keeping a hawks eye on western spies/traitors and counter revolutionary elements

Vladji sometimes makes a personal appearance to quiz field commanders on progress and brings considerable tension due to this unspoken wrath...

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Dec 2016 22:11

there are no such things as lame ducks in russia. if they start thinking or looking different then they are butchered and eaten. right from the git go.

no such concept.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 22:13

Thats how the big boys work. Usn dismisses a captain for ship or sub groundings no matter past track record. Skipper of uss enterprise lost his job due to failing a inspection.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Dec 2016 22:38

Singha wrote:Thats how the big boys work. Usn dismisses a captain for ship or sub groundings no matter past track record. Skipper of uss enterprise lost his job due to failing a inspection.

the USN and the USMC are the harshest in officer discipline. you can get releaved of command quite easily.

US Army is way more kind, especially if you are a West Point graduate.

brothers of the ring.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Dec 2016 22:45

Even then a usaf general dugan during ods and later gen McChrystal lost big for criticising the potus and his inner ring.

Anant · Post by **Anant** » 31 Dec 2016 22:53

Reading all these posts make me realize how powerful Russia is and what a toilet I live in, in the United States. I best be packing my bags and relocating to Moscow. Tsjones, you coming?

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 31 Dec 2016 23:14

TSJones wrote:
Singha wrote:Thats how the big boys work. Usn dismisses a captain for ship or sub groundings no matter past track record. Skipper of uss enterprise lost his job due to failing a inspection.
the USN and the USMC are the harshest in officer discipline. you can get releaved of command quite easily.

US Army is way more kind, especially if you are a West Point graduate. brothers of the ring.

<OT>I had a few USMCs and West Point grads types with me at business school, and what struck me was the common refrain (once you got those boys a little drunk, which wasn't easy) that, while they loved their army to a man, the US armed forces was so by the book, and so quick to punish the slightest deviation from the norm, that it became stifling for many. </OT>

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Dec 2016 23:38

Singha wrote:Even then a usaf general dugan during ods and later gen McChrystal lost big for criticising the potus and his inner ring.

the US military serves at the pleasure of the US president. period.

we are sworn to uphold the constitution (raise right hand and one step forward) but must obey the commander in chief.

I must admit it is somewhat schizophrenic.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 31 Dec 2016 23:50

Anant wrote:Reading all these posts make me realize how powerful Russia is and what a toilet I live in, in the United States. I best be packing my bags and relocating to Moscow. Tsjones, you coming?

russia has vast riches. truly and seriously.

vast forests, huge oil reserves, unbelievable various mineral wealth, the largest geographical nation state in existence.

and corruption that puts a stain on every project they attempt.

the originator of the Potemkin village.

a country still using mainly dirt roads outside of a few cities.

unexplainable.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jan 2017 00:19

Hard drinking, hard fighting, deeply religious, insular....hot women but surly unfriendly men ( those i have seen as tourists), said to be declining but routinely produces world champion Stem talent on one side and cybercriminals on another. Melancholy.

A society about which atleast my understanding is limited. Strong asuric drive as habal saar would say...can do a lot of good or bad
.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 01 Jan 2017 00:28

Russia needs to look past Putin. He is not immortal, and the long term trends are all negative for Russia - shrinking population, and shrinking global demand for oil both imply serious diminution of hard and soft power of Russia over the long term. If the recent developments collectively imply that India is reorienting itself away from Russia and towards US, then IMHO someone in New Delhi is reading the tea leaves correctly.