Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2017 10:57

graphic - couple of dead hyenas and the old lion https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2uTQltWIAUqF9a.jpg

having seen the blast cloud of the american strike in saraqib idlib nusrat camp, no way thats a hellfire swarm from drones though drones may have been onsite for surveillance and BDA. a B52/B1 type dropped atleast one very large bomb.

right now the informal plan seems to be:
- Idlib offensive is postponed until the nusrats are killed by massa/russi airpower and the rest have had a chance to negotiate with the SAA - per astana talks process
- SAA will expand in east aleppo, take al-bab from south to cut ISIS off and perhaps let the FSA rats take the town itself
- SAA is expanding the road to aleppo on both sides using units freed up from postponed Idlib offensive
- 5th corps is tooling up with shiploads of russian gear to deploy to Palmyra and take back Homs/Al Ghab south
- offensive on Palmyra front is proceeding well

so maybe the main SAA gameplan is a repeat of the jalikattu Ithriyah -> Tabqah spear once palmyra and khanassir thing is sorted out (protect the flanks). smaller offensives to recapture Homs and Eastern aleppo upto Manbij.
they will need a helicopter & UAV base in eastern homs and a playbook on how the PMU advanced 200k across the desert to sinjar from qayarrah...beating dozens of VBIEDs on the way and still do daily.

and PMU will likely enter syria at multiple points from Anbar side once done cleaning up the mess.

there will be a kurdish rojava - only the shape, format and powers is under negotiation and awaiting further developments in the war.

Baghdadi if not dead already will make his last stand with palace guards in Raqqa or Mayadeen is my feeling.
since the iraqis with huge numerical advantage are facing tough times in Mosul, I wonder how the SDF with a lot smaller and less well equipped manpower plans to engage on Raqqa ? would be a bright idea to broker a deal with SAA to come through the Tabqa front first, and help from the south and west......as for the Turks I dont think they will get any bone south of al-bab - and that if they want to expend more blood and treasure to take the ruins of the town

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2017 11:06

nusrats now in rural western aleppo and Idlib are on everyones hitlist
isis is on everyones hitlist.

wiping out these two are the only thing that everyone agrees on.

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 23 Jan 2017 12:20

IS has opened doors of Bath' Dam, Water level has rose up in DeiEzZor.
Not sure what is the exact reason.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Jan 2017 13:04

Expert: Agreement on Tartus naval base will allow Russia to control Mediterranean region

Military & Defense January 20,
Russia and Syria have signed an agreement on expanding the area of the Russian naval logistic facility in Tartus

MOSCOW, January 20. /TASS/. The Russian-Syrian agreement on the naval logistic facility in Tartus will make it possible for Russia to control the entire Mediterranean region, the Middle East, North Africa and NATO’s southern border more confidently, a Russian expert said on Friday.
"It will make it possible for Russia to keep control of the entire Mediterranean region, i.e. the Middle East, North Africa and NATO’s southern borders. In terms of military strategy, it gives big possibilities for control over the most important geopolitical processes in the region," Igor Korotchenko, the editor-in-chief of the National Defense journal, said.

Russia returns lost positions by expanding Navy base in Syria’s Tartus ― lawmaker
Russia and Syria signed an agreement on expanding the area of the Russian naval logistic facility in Tartus. The Russian-Syrian agreement will stay in effect for 49 years and will be automatically prolonged for the subsequent 25-year periods, unless either party to the agreement notifies the other party in writing through diplomatic channels no less than one year before the expiry of a regular period about its intention to terminate it. The document was published on the official web portal of legal information.
According to Korotchenko, the naval logistic facility in Tartus offers a possibility to ensure the presence of a Russian naval group in the Mediterranean and establish a naval base there.
"The mere fact of the presence of Russian warships and submarines, especially those armed with Kalibr cruise missiles, will make it possible to keep control of the entire region and repel any threats. Naturally, it will be a major factor to deter unfriendly actions against Russia by any regional and international players," he said.
Under the document, Russia may simultaneously station at the Tartus facility as many as 11 warships, including nuclear-powered combat ships, provided that nuclear and environmental safety is complied with.

http://tass.com/defense/926398

habal · Post by **habal** » 23 Jan 2017 13:37

Farooq wrote:The blurred lines of the war in Iraq and Syria...

The Yezidis have often accused the Kurds of helping ISIS during the Sinjar massacre. Here is a footage of Kurdish Peshmerga meeting ISIS soldier on friendly terms in Iraq in the Yezidi Post.

http://yezidipost.com/2016/12/07/newly- ... ance-isis/

this is THE main problem with kurds. They have double-crossed everybody who have been dependent on them for some kind of security. Not a people to be trusted.

kit · Post by **kit** » 23 Jan 2017 14:05

Wonder if the new found love of trump for the CIA can lead to a redux of the proxy war's !

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2017 16:07

pralay wrote:IS has opened doors of Bath' Dam, Water level has rose up in DeiEzZor.
Not sure what is the exact reason.

source?

Bath dam is further upstream from raqqa near tabqa and well upstream from deir azzor. not sure how it helps them...water being low, they are able to stage to from east bank nests to their enclave in deir azzor on west bank and a small island they have captured next to the airport. and water going down in tabqa reservoir will only make the task of SDF easier to cross over any points.

perhaps some rageboy misunderstood his boss's instructions and got cuffed behind his years

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2017 16:17

maybe they have obtained a supply of boats and want to assault deirazzor from behind via the water route, hence raising the water level to overrun the frontal lines and move creep in?

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 23 Jan 2017 16:39

source is here:
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2017/22-j ... -euphrates

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2017 20:14

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 48m48 minutes ago
Hassan Ridha Retweeted Hassan Ridha
RuAF Tu-22 long range bombers were active again over DeirEzzor today

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 52m52 minutes ago
After capturing the Cemetery Hill, SAA are now attempting to retake the Junayd Company in order to reopen the land supply route to Airbase

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 56m56 minutes ago
IS militants that retreated from areas in Iraq to al-Qa'im are continuing to be sent as reinforcements towards DeirEzzor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 23 Jan 2017 20:14

Hassan Ridha ‏@sayed_ridha 58m58 minutes ago
RuAF have airdropped more supplies to DeirEzzor Airbase while helicopters carrying RG reinforcements from Qamishli landed in 137th Base

^^ 137 base is in the main part of town

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Jan 2017 00:48

Syrian Kurdish YPG says not bound by Astana peace talks . They want a buffer zone of their own.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 08:41

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jan 2017 10:51

"Islamic State," said the destruction of the T-90 in the region of Aleppo

http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2392025.html

January 24th, 0:06
23 January 2017 Adventure "Islamic State" distributed a video of downed T-90 Syrian pro-government forces in Aleppo area. It is stated that if the tank was struck by anti-tank, although themselves defeat the tank frame no. Interestingly, apparently, the tank was the flag of the Lebanese Shiite organization "Hezbollah". Struck by the militants "Islamic State" T-90 Syrian pro-government forces in the region of Aleppo (c) a video frame to

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 11:38

its being speculated the box of HMG ammo atop the turret is on fire from a glancing hit, because no flames from the other hatch. the crew looks like bailed out after the fire started.

so one use case is having the internal fire suppression system also having a outlet near the box of ammo to douse flames. it can easily be ignited by HMG or ZSU or RPG hits and is very prominent atop the low turret.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 11:59

watanisy ‏@watanisy 13h13 hours ago
Half of cemetery area under SAA control after today advances / deir ez-zor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 12:06

Gen Mattis seems to have settled in and starting to get his teeth into things...

Sputnik ‏@SputnikInt 13h13 hours ago
For the first time, US provided coordinates of #Daesh targets in #AlBab in #Aleppo province for Russian airstrikes http://sptnkne.ws/duqN

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 12:16

one mystery is unlike all other parties, the SDF has never released videos of fighting with ISIS in the vast areas they have captured from ISIS , all they give are photos of passing out ceremonies of fresh trainees or people walking around after a place is captured or convoys going to the fight. they also release pix of martyrs funerals and details of foreign volunteers who died.

other than Manbij where they got bogged down and took months to capture, I do not feel they have been resisted seriously by the ISIS ... they are captured vast lightly defended areas, perhaps by calling in american air support to disperse and scare people off. and in manbij perhaps the american sof took care of the last bit?

most of their units look more akin to the NDF basic riflemen than the hardened jihadi elites or the better units of the SAA. and they dont seem to have any much of artillery / technicals / tanks either.

all in all a mystery to me they are getting as far as they do. willing to be corrected. let us take kobane do we have footage of intense CQB as we do in other areas...that place was fought over for months.

the only seasoned and mean looking kurdish units seen are the PKK in their loose pants. the barzani peshmerga look a bit overdressed and khanish but do have some experience and accomplishments .... the SDF(YPG included) is just a mystery to me. i have a fleeting suspicion either the khan SOF or PKK "guests" are doing the heavy lifting if the ISIS resist ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 13:25

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 17h17 hours ago
#ISIS tried but failed for the fourth time to create a breach in #PMU lines in #Talafar to smuggle a large convoy from #Mosul to #Syria.

Elijah J. Magnier ‏@EjmAlrai 17h17 hours ago
#Iraq preparing military bridges to deploy between east and west Mosul in a preparation to launch the major final attack on west #Mosul.

there is a large loosey goosey triangle area between mosul-west and tal afar where IS has the run of field . time for iraqi army to come around from the south and close the circle on western suburbs of mosul

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 13:27

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 13:32

dual ISIS atgm strikes on turkish armour near al bab

https://twitter.com/ruffthecrimedog/sta ... 7410148353

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 24 Jan 2017 16:41

habal wrote:
Farooq wrote:The blurred lines of the war in Iraq and Syria...

The Yezidis have often accused the Kurds of helping ISIS during the Sinjar massacre. Here is a footage of Kurdish Peshmerga meeting ISIS soldier on friendly terms in Iraq in the Yezidi Post.

http://yezidipost.com/2016/12/07/newly- ... ance-isis/
this is THE main problem with kurds. They have double-crossed everybody who have been dependent on them for some kind of security. Not a people to be trusted.

For the 100th time -

Kurds are divided into mainly three political groupings.
YPG/PKK are marxist leaning and less ummah biratherly love types.Main areas of activity is turkish south east, Iraq northwest and Syria north.

KDP (Kurdistan Democratic Party) and PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) are in an alliance and are active in Iraq north. Peshmerga is their non cohesive militia. Some factions controlled by either of the two groupings. More ummah biratherly love types. Led by barzani autonomous govt.

Turks support the barzani govt and Sunni Ummah biratherly love types(Peshmerga) and are in alliance with the Barzani autonomous govt. Both are pally with ISIS and are opposed to Shiite govt control from Baghdad. That is why the Bashiqa turkish camp inside Iraq.

YPG/PKK are immune to Erdogan`s "we are all sunni birather" charm. They want their rights. And that is why opposed to ISIS/Peshmerga/Turkey etc. And that is why the big battle in Kobane.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 17:00

The 2nd civil war in syria has started. This time between the 100s of rebel factions in idlib and west aleppo. Reports of daily clashes, mergers, demergers and press releases. Disgusted with these antics even AQ has disowned a couple of factions.

Shams ahrar is weakening ...nusra is rampant but will be bombed by all.

The turkish pasand and south front crowd are sitting pretty under astana peace process.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 Jan 2017 17:33

https://twitter.com/SyrianMilitary/stat ... 5374013440

The source is a Republic Guard commander who serve in #Khanaser front.

@SyrianMilitary This tank was hit back in Friday not yesterday as #ISIS said, it was operated by Al Fatemeyoon militia

@SyrianMilitary the tank got deeper into #ISIS territory with Shtora off expecting not to face anything but a 23MM gun

@SyrianMilitary the crew got surprised by an ATGM hit the upper turret section and knocked out many vision sights and the machine gun.

@SyrianMilitary and set it on fire, another ATGM was fired into the side of the tank and injured the driver.

@SyrianMilitary Then the commander and the gunner abandoned the tank without the diver. He was rescued after one hour.

@SyrianMilitary After several hours and due to the opened hatch the fire reached the ammo inside the tank and exploded.

@SyrianMilitary but the turret didn't went airborne. If the crew extinguished the fire up in the turret, the tank would've survived.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 18:12

They are afghani hazara shia militia under irgc officers

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liwa_Fatemiyoun

I guess they and ndf protect the khanasser road...they also operate in southern syria other places

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 18:58

south of tal afar , way out in the desert there is this 1km x 1km town called Al-Baaj - a caravan serai of sorts of the ISIS grand trunk road from Mosul to Deirazzor and Al Qaim.

https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Baa ... 44!6m1!1e1

local sources claim the khalifa has been wounded by a targeted airstrike on a certain location in this town

PMU has still not moved that far south to capture this town.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 19:04

this will reportedly be in sync with the expected assault into west mosul from various directions. a strong screening force is sited east of tal afar thats been interdicting ISIS convoys trying to escape toward Al-Baaj and on to syria

Iraqi PMU English ‏@pmu_english 18h18 hours ago
Iraqi PMU English Retweeted Chloe Lew
We have 40,000 Sunni fighters (40% of our forces) and our Turkmen division is primary units involved in liberation of their city Tal Afar.

Iraqi PMU English ‏@pmu_english 19h19 hours ago
#BREAKING - #Iraqi #PMU have full clearance to enter Tal Afar city by the Prime Minister @HaiderAlAbadi order. #ISIS defeat soon

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 20:50

Reports of nusra using tanks and arty to gain upper hand. Let the games begin. Ahrar shams is close to turkish mil will obtain reinforcement and strike back.

Brasco_Aad ‏@Brasco_Aad
Intense clashes between JAA/JFS vs Ahrar al Sham & allies in Baynin, Kafrnabl and Ariha #Idlib.

100s of KIA on both sides

The 'Nimr' Tiger
2h
The 'Nimr' Tiger ‏@Souria4Syrians
What happened between ISIS & Moderate jihadists is now happening between Nusra & moderate jihadists.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 20:51

Its better the nusra win and clean up everyone else as king of the hill.

Then b52 can work with no confusion

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 20:54

Majd Fahd ‏@Syria_Protector
@Syria_Protector Jaish Almujahdeen just released a statement saying that they were surprised and shocked by JFS attack on their positions.

Majd Fahd
14h
Majd Fahd ‏@Syria_Protector
@Syria_Protector Reports of Zinki militants ally with JFS in northwest Aleppo cs against Ahrar Asham and Jaish Al mujahdeen

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 21:44

The Russian military says its bombers have struck Islamic State positions in eastern Syria in the third such raid in four days.

The Defense Ministry said that six Tu-22M3 bombers flew from their base in Russia to strike IS facilities in the province of Deir el-Zour on Tuesday. It said they successfully hit all designated targets, including an ammunition factory, arms and ammunition depots, and weapons locations.

Russian bombers also flew similar missions Saturday and Monday.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 21:51

todays backfire visit recorded by drone
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d45_1485270532
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=835_1485257912

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 22:02

ISIS mobile hit team raids a PMU den west of mosul - gets scythed down by the alert defenders .. for a so-called ragtag militia, must say the PMU fights hard and mean

thermal footage
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=dab_1485120488

and not all fights end in success against the never ending VBIED threat, here the PMU unit loses their commander to a car bomb .. there is no respite because vbieds can come in swarms...moments after the explosion the dozer is back at work rebuilding the berms
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=15d_1485095641

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 22:12

The backfires look like their full payload is 24 bombs internally and maybe another 24 externally (or surely another 12) on a couple of huge pylons or under the belly. but they are carrying just 12 on the syria missions perhaps to permit reaching the theater with just 1 refueling over western Iran.

the B2 global pawa mission to libya needed some 5 refuels in total from minnesota. thats a tanker line that only khan can line up by calling up ANG units. rest of nato can barely scrape together 20 to fight ww3. khan brings some 120 tankers to the table on a good day.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Jan 2017 22:20

I stand corrected - it can take 36 internally in 3 bushels of 12 each

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jan 2017 07:49

well well...

the council is based in Istanbul. locally some formations are still willing to reconcile with JFS, but JFS(AQ) wants to crush them one by one and be the king of hill...more power to them I say. makes the task of bombing them later much easier.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jan 2017 07:51

Haider Al-Abadi ‏@HaiderAlAbadi 8h8 hours ago
I congratulate the Iraqi people on the full liberation of East Mosul, made possible by the courage and sacrifices of our armed forces

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jan 2017 07:59

tiger forces continues to capture the high ground ridges south of al bab against light IS forces as most of them are busy in Al-bab vs the turkish kabila

however they are still around 30km away from linking up with SDF in Manbij so ISIS still has a wide area there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jan 2017 08:00

the yellow in the map is allegedly sarkari aleppo rural Kurds who are on good terms both with SAA and YPG

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jan 2017 10:56

Rudaw English ‏@RudawEnglish 11h11 hours ago
#BREAKING: Iraq's powerful leader Muqtada al-Sadr calls for the closure of #US embassy if @POTUS insists on moving US embassy to Jerusalem.