'Make in India' Single engined fighter

[Marten]

^^^"You can't force them to buy used M2K bhangaar or tell them to "wait" another decade till 200 LCAs are finally produced."
+1
The IAF should have to only worry about operational needs given the task. It is not in their job description to worry about R&D and 'indigenous' capability building.

Why is it not their "job"? And if they are not to be worried about it, aren't you saying let them figure out how to live with whatever is procured for them? Well, they will need to live with the bhangaar that is still being upgraded at $45mn a pop, making your argument asinine and quite frankly, trolling. Not the first time too, IIRC.

We've had acrimonious discussions about why more Mk1 itself should be ordered until MK1a or 2 are ready. The 1000kg notion is BS. Even 100kg would be a major win. The Gripen is heavier by 600-750 and has a less powerful engine but is somehow amazing. For a country that is unwilling to expand design capability, let alone manufacture, we will have to pay a price.
PS: dalaals of various creeds and shades will try to upsell nonsense from their respective loves - why are we considering any other makes if M2K upgraded machines are available for a reasonable sum for use of even ten years. Will help us tide over the shortage until we have enough LCAs and the enough AMCAs. This Teens business will end up working in India ten years too late!
PPS: was told Saab has already made an offer that cannot be rejected. Being seriously discussed apparently. Hope ACM Dhanoa puts his foot down and pushes for the LCA (and shows his support by flying it soon).

[nirav]

Marten ji,

I understand where you are coming from.That we are so passionate about the LCA makes it difficult to to take a 'dispassionate' view on the current state of affairs and be objective in analysis.

I'll try to put things in perspective..

MMRCA was 126+(80-90) options.
Post conclusion of the circus, IAF was told, paisa Nathi, take the 36 in flyaway condition. Cost approximately 8 billion dollars.

After having taking a cut of roughly 100-200 Medium jets, they have been given an option of about 100 'single' engine fighter jets which the solah and Gripen are vying for.

The alternative being suggested in here is - buy used M2K and upgrade them, use them till enough LCAs come online.
Let's talk costs.
IAF M2000 I cost roughly 3.5 billion dollars in 2011 prices to upgrade and arm 49 jets.

If we somehow find 100 used M2K, upgradation and armament cost going by precedent would be to the tune of 7 billion dollars in 2011 prices.
Considering inflation and the actual cost of buying the used jets would take the tally easily north of 10 billion dollars.
And yes, the IAF M2000 I upgrade does not involve AESA radar which obviously is the need of the hour.
Add 150 AESA, the 10 billion figure balloons further.

The term bhangaar used by me for used mirages vs brand new F16s rolling out from an Indian line was in that context.
Again, all discussion on used mirages is simply moot.
IAF has not mentioned it even once that they are interested in it.Nor has MoD.its frankly a jugaadu thought and needs to be junked.
A 10-12 billion dollar jugaad is ridic.

The 100 foreign fighter requirement has been floated by MoD and I believe IAF would have been consulted before going ahead with it.

Calling people who are either for solah or Gripen as dalaals of various creed is going overboard.
It's the IAF/MoD who have made the proposal/requirement.its very inappropriate, this name calling..

Further, I'd appreciate if you could share some details/numbers on used mirages.
Simply saying they are available for less doesn't cut it.
Pls state, who's selling 100 M2K and expected cost of upgrading 150 M2K to LCA Mk1A standard or heck, even M2000 I standard.

We could then have a factual discussion on that proposal, which in reality is nothing but a waste of time.
IAF doesn't want it !

[Neshant]

If the LCA program does not go into mass production soon and foreign single engine fighters get imported, the program will go the way of the Arjun tank.

Frightening co-incidence that like the Arjun tank, only 124 LCAs are planned as of now.

For a project that spanned decades, those low numbers would indicate the program is a failure.

GTRE has NOT delivered on the engine front and France has to do GTRE's work for them. Not cool.

[Marten]

Nirav, Greece has 40, Qatar 12 (some say 10). IAF has 51. There is some cost involved in bringing them to one standard (Qatar is already upgraded). There is greater commonality there, and even two squadrons would be a ready boost. Any new line in India will take five years to roll out even a single unit. By then, we could have far more MK1as out there.

We will encounter 68 F-16s on the West and about 100 bundars. The rest are mostly mirage iiis. Do you need an F-16 to counter the PAF? They have 500 AIM120C that should worry us. Yes, and that can be countered by meteors and a vastly superior air defense network.

As for buying the MIG35, sigh!

What I and many others resent is having the single engine presented as a fait accompli. CCS/ MOD sat on LCA line expansion for three valuable years. SOP for Tejas Mk1 prod was finalized in September 2014! And the resultant delay is attributed as a reason for more single engine fighters of a different type.

Mark my words, NO single engine fighter can be assembled in India within five years from now. And even if one is selected, for local SMEs to ramp up for the new type will take 2-3 more years. Saab has an advantage there, but its plane itself is not superior to MK1a. So why?

[A Deshmukh]

If the LCA program does not go into mass production soon and foreign single engine fighters get imported, the program will go the way of the Arjun tank. Frightening co-incidence that like the Arjun tank, only 124 LCAs are planned as of now.

a lot of dhoti shivering. dont worry.

• 1 - 2 Tejas production lines in place. 3rd line approved by CCS. 100+ planes will come.
• Arjun 124 tanks out of 5000 tanks requirement. Tejas 124 out of 500 planes. not the same.
• With Modi with Make-in-India agenda and Parrikar around - we should worry less now.

[Marten]

PS: The offer was from Qatar. And the Greek ones have been offered earlier. No links.

And nirav saar, please note, when I say dalaals, I don't mean folks on this forum. BRF is not influencing opinion in South block.

[Cybaru]

UAE has 33 M2K-9s in excellent shape + another 33 that are a bit older.

[Cosmo_R]

Why is it not their "job"? And if they are not to be worried about it, aren't you saying let them figure out how to live with whatever is procured for them? Well, they will need to live with the bhangaar that is still being upgraded at $45mn a pop, making your argument asinine and quite frankly, trolling. Not the first time too, IIRC.

I'll keep it real simple: The IAF nor the other services select equipment, negotiate or order. That is the job of the MoD. I hope you are following me thus far: It is the MoD's job description along with DRDO and the panoply of organizations to promote R&D and worry about local capability building. OK so far?

It's that simple. Take a dyspepsia pill. Read and understand simple sentences. Use your education and for heaven's sake don't assume everything that is not in perfect concert with your view is 'trolling'. This is a discussion forum not a quorum solely for the purpose of showering you with accolades. This realization may be a bit of a downer, but I say this in the most caring way. You're welcome.

[nirav]

Nirav, Greece has 40, Qatar 12 (some say 10). IAF has 51. There is some cost involved in bringing them to one standard (Qatar is already upgraded). There is greater commonality there, and even two squadrons would be a ready boost. Any new line in India will take five years to roll out even a single unit. By then, we could have far more MK1as out there.

We will encounter 68 F-16s on the West and about 100 bundars. The rest are mostly mirage iiis. Do you need an F-16 to counter the PAF? They have 500 AIM120C that should worry us. Yes, and that can be countered by meteors and a vastly superior air defense network.

As for buying the MIG35, sigh!

What I and many others resent is having the single engine presented as a fait accompli. CCS/ MOD sat on LCA line expansion for three valuable years. SOP for Tejas Mk1 prod was finalized in September 2014! And the resultant delay is attributed as a reason for more single engine fighters of a different type.

Mark my words, NO single engine fighter can be assembled in India within five years from now. And even if one is selected, for local SMEs to ramp up for the new type will take 2-3 more years. Saab has an advantage there, but its plane itself is not superior to MK1a. So why?

Marten saar,

you are failing to take into account the numbers needed,the qualitative hit that the IAF has already agreed to by MMRCA being canned and majority of THAT requirement being filled by the foreign single engine birds.

IF LCA was sufficient and available for that role on time; dont you think Sh. Parrikar, who already got 83 Nos for Mk1A going, would have certainly done something about it ?

Again the mirages that you list are barely 66 in Nos.
Have you checked out the rate at which IAF M2Ks are being upgraded ?
HAL flew the FOC version of the M2k only last year.

Blowing 8-10 billion dollars for used M2k's and spending another decade to upgrade them is blasphemous in light of the current situation of IAF re equipment.
They dont want it. The discussion on this is plain moot.

I strongly urge you to take a look at rohitvats' excellent thread on IAF re equipment to get a perspective on how and when the squadrons will be retiring and will need replacement.

[Marten]

Why is it not their "job"? And if they are not to be worried about it, aren't you saying let them figure out how to live with whatever is procured for them? Well, they will need to live with the bhangaar that is still being upgraded at $45mn a pop, making your argument asinine and quite frankly, trolling. Not the first time too, IIRC.

I'll keep it real simple: The IAF nor the other services select equipment, negotiate or order. That is the job of the MoD. I hope you are following me thus far: It is the MoD's job description along with DRDO and the panoply of organizations to promote R&D and worry about local capability building. OK so far?

It's that simple. Take a dyspepsia pill. Read and understand simple sentences. Use your education and for heaven's sake don't assume everything that is not in perfect concert with your view is 'trolling'. This is a discussion forum not a quorum solely for the purpose of showering you with accolades. This realization may be a bit of a downer, but I say this in the most caring way. You're welcome.

While you spent time writing complex sentences to project a rather simplistic approach, the IAF invented a concept called technical downselect. Try reading up on it and perhaps then revisit that first line?
PS: As for your tempered condescension, conserve it for someone who really cares.

[Marten]

Nirav saar, two assertions that you make re IAF choice - simplest answer is that the F-16 will take 5-7 years to roll out. If you have that time, you might as well get more LCAs, which will take less time to ramp up. Secondly, M2K upgrade would not have happened if IAF doesn't like the bird. I forgot to add the UAE ones but cybaru saar listed them. The cost of a new setup and MRO is literally zero because we have two bases where M2K are already based. Raffys will also be around so OEM support is not an issue. If numbers are the issue, both the LCA and M2K are the options. Capability-wise, you have both the MKIs and Raffys. I don't understand what else is required. Really, not trying to be daft here.

[nirav]

I hate to say this saar but for the moment just like the Gripen NG, LCA mk1A is "vapourware" ..

The Fsolah in its latest iteration is nothing to be scoffed at. THAT capability is in lieu of 126 Rafales which the IAF wanted.

now what you are saying is, Fsolahs not needed, let the capability enhancement that was intended by 126 Rafales be covered up with LCAs.

The Fsolah in the iteration offered to India does have significant capability metrics higher than the current LCA which hasnt yet got its FOC, and even the LCA MK1A which is a paper plane for now.

Edit : viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6938&start=40 Good thread to get a idea of the amount of squadrons in need of replacement and the time frames.

[Cybaru]

[
Blowing 8-10 billion dollars for used M2k's and spending another decade to upgrade them is blasphemous in light of the current situation of IAF re equipment

I have seen this constant making up of "phat/high" numbers to support your position nirav. There was another post earlier yesterday which had similar arguments and made up numbers to support your argument. Yeah, if you believe these facts in your head, perhaps you could be right, but that may not be reality, you know.

How come the used mirages that didn't cost 10 billion for greeks and uae in the used market would amount to a larger number?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ade-30950/

Greece paid roughly $58 million for its M2K-5.

dates of induction
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/mirage/

[Cybaru]

I hate to say this saar but for the moment just like the Gripen NG, LCA mk1A is "vapourware" ..

Vapourware? Wooow! Okay, if you said about Mk-2, I understand, but Mk1A is just reconfiguration. You can arbitrarily draw the line as you see fit, on where the winners and loser are by your own metrics, but really who cares!

[nirav]

[
Blowing 8-10 billion dollars for used M2k's and spending another decade to upgrade them is blasphemous in light of the current situation of IAF re equipment

I have seen this constant making up of "phat/high" numbers to support your position nirav. There was another post earlier yesterday which had similar arguments and made up numbers to support your argument. Yeah, if you believe these facts in your head, perhaps you could be right, but that may not be reality, you know.

How come the used mirages that didn't cost 10 billion for greeks and uae in the used market would amount to a larger number?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ade-30950/

Greece paid roughly $58 million for its M2K-5.

dates of induction
http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/mirage/

IAF has paid roughly 3.5 Billion USD in 2011 rates for ugrading its 49 M2k and arming them with Mica missiles.

I have extrapolated those figures for 2017 rates for an upgrade of 100 used M2k. Just that leads to roughly 8-10 billion dollars. Add to that acquisition cost of the 100 used Mirages.

and NONE of the upgraded M2ks would have AESA. thrown in a cpl billion for AESA equipping 149 M2ks ?

if you think these numbers are incorrect, please do disprove them rather than calling them "facts in my head"..

[nirav]

I hate to say this saar but for the moment just like the Gripen NG, LCA mk1A is "vapourware" ..

Vapourware? Wooow! Okay, if you said about Mk-2, I understand, but Mk1A is just reconfiguration. You can arbitrarily draw the line as you see fit, on where the winners and loser are by your own metrics, but really who cares!

is it flying ? aap batayein .. where is its prototype even flying, if its "just a reconfiguration" ..

im confused whether to believe HAL who had proposed 800-1000 KG reduction for MK1A or forum posters who say thats NOT happening.

Still, no prototype. so why isnt it vapourware ?

[Cybaru]

It's okay, you can believe what you want. Karan politely corrected and pointed out certain facts, if you don't want to believe them, that's fine.

What prototype?? Are there any planned? I thought the prototype was dropped and its just some minor re-qualification (which happens whenever you change any software/hardware on the plane)

http://idrw.org/hal-plans-to-convert-20 ... into-mk1a/
Older report that Karan alluded to yesterday (this is how it all started and then evolved to Mk1A)
http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories ... _Radar.htm

The new LCA-MkI-P variant with the EW Package will also add some 50 kilos of more weight, but then, Mr Raju explained, the capability of the aircraft increases significantly, offsetting the disadvantage of a smaller engine.
The current LCA-MkI version uses 210 kilos with ballast in the nose to stabilize the aircraft. This will be removed, and the AESA and EW suite weighing about 250 kilos will be added. The net weight gain will be of about 50 kilos."

Now you can go back and read Karan's response yesterday.

[NRao]

Still, no prototype. so why isnt it vapourware ?

My growing concern is that there is something/s in the LCA that are not Indian enough to make the Indian team dis-comfortable about an Indian plane.

And, the LCA team can never take risks, which IMHO is a major road bump. Teams such as these need to take risks.


On the flip side there has been interest from other nations. That is perhaps, in recent times, the greatest news item.


Let us see what comes out of AI17.

[Cybaru]

My growing concern is that there is something/s in the LCA that are not Indian enough to make the Indian team dis-comfortable about an Indian plane.

I am confused, so then how will they get comfortable with purchasing willy nilly fully assembled (unpeekable/unknown LRUs/software) on foreign purchases?

[nirav]

Kartik ji posted this yesterday...

http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories ... _Radar.htm

Direct quote from HAL chairman about the prototype. In May 15 Hon Chairman says moderate weight gain.

In march 16, hon chairman says slight weight reduction.
http://www.oneindia.com/india/hal-on-mi ... 50583.html

but when the agreement for 83 MK1A was announced, the 1000 KG reduction was clearly mentioned.
http://www.janes.com/article/61828/indi ... a-squadron

heres a quote from the oneindia link from march 16

Amidst the stepped-up activities on the production line, HAL has also started the work on the Tejas MK1A variant. Engineers at Aircraft Research and Design Centre have begun the conceptual design and development work.

By December 2018, the SOP (Standard of Preparation) is likely to be finalised. The Drawing Applicability List (DAL) will also be ready soon. (DAL is a key element of SOP). "We are planning to have four Tejas MKIAs ready by 2018/19 and these platforms will be with slight weight reduction. By June 2016, some concrete plans for Tejas MKIA will be ready," says an official. As per the current plans, by 2025 HAL must hand over 100 Tejas MKIAs to IAF.

Read more at: http://www.oneindia.com/india/hal-on-mi ... 50583.html

In March 16, the SoP target for MK1A was Dec 2018.

Heres something that hasnt flown yet, work on it hasnt been completed yet,SoP will be finalised in Dec 18, No prototype yet and you claim it just some "reconfig" ?

I dont care if they dropped the over ambitious 800-1000 KG reduction.That would have certainly messed timelines up big time.The air force might be pissed about it though, over ambitious target promised and not delivered.
But we are not at that stage yet with the MK1A to say everything is fine and they *will* roll off the line in 20-21 @ 16/yr like Bajaj pulsars.

[Rakesh]

The foreign line is targetting 100 birds for the time being.Not sure why you are considering 200 phoren phyters !

I am referring to this...

Modi govt offers to buy 200 foreign combat aircrafts: 7 things you should know
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... n-3728832/

But assuming the above article is DDM at its best and it is only 100 aircraft as you say. The same argument I am putting forth holds true. 1, 10, 50, 100 or 200. You will spend billions on two platforms (and subsequent resources), land to set up a third facility for MII for these fighters. We already have two production lines for the Tejas. Now you are going to spend money constructing a facility to MII phoren fighters, when you can spend that same money to build a THIRD line for the Tejas.

you have repeatedly been talking about it being an either/or situation. However as indications from MoD are, 20+20+83 LCAs is *happening*, no matter what.

I am talking about the ground situation. Not either/or. And the reality is we have two production lines making the Tejas right now. We don't need a third line of another type.

The 50 years support is for the Rafale. Im quoting that number to guys advocating 'buy used m2k and upgrade them'. My argument is that brand new F16s have a better supply chain to ensure product support for the time IAF expects to use them vs used m2ks which btw entail a badass upgrade cost. getting a 100 M2K off the used market itself could be a tough ask. used F16s ? maybe not. But the point is IAF is NOT looking for used jets. The whole discussion on used jets is moot.

Ok let me buy your argument on used M2Ks. It is Bakwaas. Now as per Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa, the IAF does not have the numbers to fight a two-front war. This is the source.

IAF: Don’t have the numbers to fully fight two-front war
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... t-war-iaf/

At the pace the MoD is moving on the single engine fighter purchase, not one single F-Solah or Paper NG is going to arrive before 2021. There have been news articles on it already. From everything we are reading and seeing, a limited conflict will likely happen soon. If a war happens today - going by the above article - the IAF is in a pickle. Would you agree? What are you going to fight with then? Lotus flowers?

Secondly, 50 year support for the Rafale has NO bearing on the Mirage 2000s. Please answer this. The IAF is in the process of upgrading her 51 Mirage 2000s right now. How is the IAF planning to maintain these aircraft for the next 15 years if there is a limited supply chain? Because after all they are not building them anymore, correct? In the same vein, how is Qatar maintaing her Dash 5s, how is UAE maintaing her Dash 9s, how is Greece maintaing her Dash 9s? Based on what you are saying, the used M2ks that the IAF is upgrading are soon going to be hangar queens.

You are correct. The IAF is only looking for new jets. Only new jets will keep the IAF fighting fit. Used jets are just that - useless. Even the 51 Mirage 2000s that the IAF is upgrading is useless. Junk it then. But wait, how do we answer this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6aka_xQVsI

See nirav, I am not blindly believing that the Tejas is the next best thing since sliced bread. In a knife fight vis-a-vis an AESA-equipped F-Solah, Block 70....her survivability is moot. But really is the threat from the PAF that scary that we need to spend billions on a phoren aircraft - that will not arrive before 2021? Going by your own statements, you have said that the Tejas cannot be made more than 16 a year. By your own caculations, you can have 80 Tejas by 2021. That will be before even the first MII F-Solah is produced.

As for this article, let me say the following...

Make-In-India: F-16s Could Be Built Here, Much Depends Now On Donald Trump
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/make-in- ... mp-1657746

Nothing has changed between the two administrations. In fact the new administration allows LM breathing room. They can turn around and tell the GoI, we want to give you engine and radar assembly in India, but the Trump administration is saying no. But do MII because of our extensive supply base. Nirav, nothing has changed. NOTHING.

And yes, the IAF M2000 I upgrade does not involve AESA radar which obviously is the need of the hour.
Add 150 AESA, the 10 billion figure balloons further.

There you go again with AESA. Saar, stop with the AESA. You do not need to upgrade the M2k with a AESA radar. The RDY-2 radar on the Dash-9 is more that enough against the PAF. Add Rambha and upgraded MiG-29s to the mix and you have a firewall that the PAF will not penetrate. I am not even going to bring Katrina into the picture because she is not even in service yet with the IAF.

Pls state, who's selling 100 M2K and expected cost of upgrading 150 M2K to LCA Mk1A standard or heck, even M2000 I standard!

Qatar was selling her 12 M2Ks for $600 million. That's $50 million a pop. You think you are going to get a F-Solah, Block 70 or Paper NG for that price?

IAF doesn't want it !

The IAF wanted the Qatari M2Ks. Even discussions were held. Don't parrot that lie. The MoD low balled Qatar. But we have no qualms for spending $8 billion for 36 Rafales and who knows how may billions for 100 phoren fighters.

While you spent time writing complex sentences to project a rather simplistic approach, the IAF invented a concept called technical downselect. Try reading up on it and perhaps then revisit that first line?
PS: As for your tempered condescension, conserve it for someone who really cares.

I am surprised you are wasting your time responding to drivel. I am sure you have better things to do. Ignore Bakwaas.

A sudden spike in LDL Cholesterol occurred on 27 April 2011. That was date the downselect happened to the Rafale and the Typhoon, leaving out their beloved teens. Angina (aka chest pain) occurred on 31 January 2012. That was the date the Rafale was selected as L1. Myocardial infarction (aka heart attack) occurred on 23 Sept 2016 when the Rafale deal was signed. They only reason they made it through is because only 36 were signed, instead of 126. They are on oxygen now.

[Rakesh]

a lot of dhoti shivering. dont worry.

• 1 - 2 Tejas production lines in place. 3rd line approved by CCS. 100+ planes will come.
• Arjun 124 tanks out of 5000 tanks requirement. Tejas 124 out of 500 planes. not the same.
• With Modi with Make-in-India agenda and Parrikar around - we should worry less now.

5,000 Arjuns? Dude....5,000? What is your source?

[NRao]

The foreign line is targetting 100 birds for the time being.Not sure why you are considering 200 phoren phyters !

I think I have seen SAAB quote a need for 300-400.

IAF?

https://www.google.com/amp/in.mobile.re ... oid-att-us

[Rakesh]

Nirav, please riddle me this

Mk.1A vaporware. Agreed. No prototype exists.

F-16 Block 70 also vaporware. No prototype exists. Would you agree? Is there a flying model anywhere of a Block 70? Is there a flying model of a Gripen E? The latter has only completed taxi trials to date.

But yet, the IAF is eager to buy a phoren aircraft that does not exist, but vehemently oppose a desi aircraft that does not exist either.

Please explain.

Why do we hold such stringent standards to desi products, but yet have no standards to phoren products. In fact we write the RFP when phoren products come out so we can buy them. Where was the endless testing for the M777 howitzer, the new T-90s that we just purchased and so on and so on? How many years again has the Arjun been in testing?

[ShauryaT]

Single-engined ruse - Bharat Karnad

The Modi regime’s somewhat skewed reason for opting for the MUL route for its Make in India programme is the belief that producing any of these aircraft — from the fairly new (Gripen) to the really old (F-16/F-18) in India, will turn this country into a global hub for sales and service worldwide for this warplane. It is a line all the suppliers have succeeded in selling to the GOI. The surprise is New Delhi has swallowed it hook, line, and sinker without so much as a show of discomfort! Then again, the armed services and MOD are habituated to decades of milking the armaments imports cow for the collateral gains, personalized goodies — long good time in Paris, Stockholm, …(fill in the blanks), personal “fund augmentation” and similar considerations that keeps everyone up and down the decision loop happy and lubricating and hurrahing the final deal along.

But, who’s to say India cannot afford its follies? It will be the third largest, multi-trillion dollar economy by 2030 don’t you know? But, in the here and now, there’s no money to buy these cost-benefit-wise wonky aircraft that will, for one reason or another, fail to come up to their billing. However, one thing is certain. In the context of severe resource crunch, this deal — a carryover from the half-baked MMRCA requirement conjured up by Air Hqrs, will be at the expense of the poor, expendable, home-made, Tejas LCA —....

[nirav]

See nirav, I am not blindly believing that the Tejas is the next best thing since sliced bread. In a knife fight vis-a-vis an AESA-equipped F-Solah, Block 70....her survivability is moot. But really is the threat from the PAF that scary that we need to spend billions on a phoren aircraft - that will not arrive before 2021? Going by your own statements, you have said that the Tejas cannot be made more than 16 a year. By your own caculations, you can have 80 Tejas by 2021. That will be before even the first MII F-Solah is produced.

I was hesitating from saying the bold part out loud.


Heres an xpost.

x-post...

When discussing numbers, it always helps to know a bit about the air force everyone is so keen to advise!

On a serious note, if one wants to understand the requirement of LCA, please stop going back to the Mig-21 argument. Most of the Mig-21/23/27 are long gone, having been replaced by Su-30MKI. A few remain and of this Mig-21 Bison will remain for another 8-10 years at least.

Here is what the IAF looks like/will look like by 2020: 14 (Su-30MKI) + 3 (Mirage-2000-5) + 3 (Mig-29) + 6 (Jaguar) + 5 (Mig-21 Bison) + 2 (Mig-27UPG) + 1 (LCA Mk1) + 1 (LCA Mk1A) + 2 (MMRCA) = 37 squadrons.

Looking at the above numbers and planned induction of 100 LCA Mk1A, it seems IAF at present is not looking at LCA Mk2 in the ORBAT. If we can produce 20 LCA Mk1A or 1 squadron per annum, we're looking at full complement of LCA Mk1A entering service by 2025.

I was expecting Mig-21 Bison to be replaced by LCA Mk2 but it seems these will be replaced by LCA Mk1A itself. I would discount the 20 LCA Mk1 because these will end up spending most of the time in conversion, training and tactics evaluation. IAF needs 5+2 squadrons to replace Mig-21 Bison and Mig-27 UPG. That is 140 aircraft at least. We've 100 Mk1A and IMO another 40 is given. Mig-27 UPG will most likely be first to be replaced by LCA Mk1A. So, we're looking at 160 minimum number of LCA Mk1A. And I won't be surprised if we've another 20 a/c dedicated for conversion training.

I think we're looking at 160-180 LCA Mk1A being produced over next 10 years.

Bigger question is, how do we reach the 42 squadron number?

Beyond 37 squadrons, IAF need 05 more squadrons. Now, I firmly believe that 7 squadrons of MMRCA will come. Whatever be the aircraft type. And I don't think it will be LCA version.

So, beyond 02 MMRCA already accounted for, I think we'll have 05 more.

That is only way we'll be anywhere close to 42 squadron number by 2025-27. With the following likely break-up:

14 (Su-30MKI) + 3 (Mirage-2000-5) + 3 (Mig-29) + 6 (Jaguar) + 8 (LCA Mk1A) + 1 (LCA Mk1) + 7 (MMRCA) = 42 squadrons.

I do NOT think we are qualified enough to tell the IAF that they should not be going in for light,medium,heavy for their 42 squadron makeup but go just light,heavy.

The "light" share will be met by the LCAs quite well.
The medium is being met by 2 squadrons of Rafale + 5 Squadrons of Fsolah. This itself is a massive cut in capability but what you and others a proposing is a further cut by not having *any* Fsolah and replacing the whole Medium requirement by the LCAs.

Its impractical. You yourself have stated that the Fsolah blk70 brings more capability to the table than the LCA.

The IAF has devised its needs based on fighting a 2 front war.
If we are solving *just* for the pakis, id say the Sukhoi fleet itself is enough.No need for the rest.But you and I both know that IAF is solving for BAF + PLAAF.

And yes, the IAF M2000 I upgrade does not involve AESA radar which obviously is the need of the hour.
Add 150 AESA, the 10 billion figure balloons further.

There you go again with AESA. Saar, stop with the AESA. You do not need to upgrade the M2k with a AESA radar. The RDY-2 radar on the Dash-9 is more that enough against the PAF. Add Rambha and upgraded MiG-29s to the mix and you have a firewall that the PAF will not penetrate. I am not even going to bring Katrina into the picture because she is not even in service yet with the IAF.

The AESA requirement is not mine kind saar.I have no requirements actually ..
Direct that to the Air force

Pls state, who's selling 100 M2K and expected cost of upgrading 150 M2K to LCA Mk1A standard or heck, even M2000 I standard!

Qatar was selling her 12 M2Ks for $600 million. That's $50 million a pop. You think you are going to get a F-Solah, Block 70 or Paper NG for that price?

Saar, vast difference between 100 jets and 12 jets.

IAF doesn't want it !

The IAF wanted the Qatari M2Ks. Even discussions were held. Don't parrot that lie. The MoD low balled Qatar. But we have no qualms for spending $8 billion for 36 Rafales and who knows how may billions for 100 phoren fighters.

The thing about quoting past actions is it becomes difficult to draw the line where to stop.
before the qatari mirages, IAF wanted brand new mirages onlee, but thanks to our bolitical establishment we had MMRCA circus.

I repeatedly keep saying, the 'buy used mirages' ship has sailed.Aint coming back.when i say IAF doesnt want it, its the truth.They *are not* looking for used Mirages now.Must live in the present no ?

Nirav, please riddle me this

Mk.1A vaporware. Agreed. No prototype exists.

Bliss to excuse onlee saar.Had to use that strong word to drive home a point that the Fsolah even in its latest available iteration exceeds the LCA in capability.

on an unrelated issue, ive sent an email to webby at br dawt com .. bliss to unblock my IP saar.. its frustrating to not be able to access BR on the laptop .. and the jugaad i have to employ to use multi quote ..

[Cain Marko]

The alternative being suggested in here is - buy used M2K and upgrade them, use them till enough LCAs come online.
Let's talk costs.
IAF M2000 I cost roughly 3.5 billion dollars in 2011 prices to upgrade and arm 49 jets.

If we somehow find 100 used M2K, upgradation and armament cost going by precedent would be to the tune of 7 billion dollars in 2011 prices.
Considering inflation and the actual cost of buying the used jets would take the tally easily north of 10 billion dollars.


Further, I'd appreciate if you could share some details/numbers on used mirages.
Simply saying they are available for less doesn't cut it.
Pls state, who's selling 100 M2K and expected cost of upgrading 150 M2K to LCA Mk1A standard or heck, even M2000 I standard.

We could then have a factual discussion on that proposal, which in reality is nothing but a waste of time.
IAF doesn't want it !

Nirav bhai, su etla magad mari karechey tamey?

We were mainly thinking of uae m2ks and possibly qatari...these are pretty much same standard as iaf upg the 5/9. Not much money will go into getting them to just the right std.

Consider that the qataris were offering 12 birds for $ 750 million in 2006. Iirc, these airfames were quite new too. Now with time and depreciation, cost will come down and i would expect $50 mil per unit and that is without negotiation.

If the iaf can get even 2-3 sqds worth from said countries, acquisition, standardization etc., should be no more than 2.5 billion. Add weapons worth another billion. In 3.5 billion, they will get the numbers issue partially addressed in double quick time. Which allows for some breathing room and creates more options such as an off the shelf purchase of a few more rafale or even the jsf as a silver bullet. Or pakfa which should be available then. Not tho mention an lca mk1a.

I'm not saying that to consider imports is a dalali of some type, but I'm not too keen on spending top dollar on production of 4.5 gen birds when world is moving on to 5gen. IOWs, imvho the best way to address numbers is through a combo of cheap solutions like the lca and m2ks along with a few 5 gen sqds. No point spending dollars on 4.5 gen fighters.

I'm willing to bet that India can acquire 100 lca and m2k and 36+ jsf-pakfa in the money required to buy 126 plus brand new f16 or gripen with production rights, tot offsets etc etc..

In time, two 5g production lines can be started, one with hal and amca, and another with private player and pakfa or fgfa.

Basically India can literally address all it's problems with this solution...quick induction and arrest numbers downfall, help local industry via lca, amca, and fgfa. And create a very high quality edge with the quick induction of 5g birds In the short term, that too at a financial cost which would be no greater than, and probably lesser than what is being projected currently for acquisition of 126+ MII program 4.5 gen fighters.

Again, Jmvho.

[Cain Marko]

Either this or phuck it and move the lca team to amca, and ask the US and LM to give a good deal for 300 f16 with the diamond wing, full prod and export rights plus a carrier version for the navy.

Have a private player to churn these out till 2030+ and have hal create and produce fgfa. Ada can get the amca rolling in the meanwhile and both hal and the private player can fight for production rights when out is ready 2035

[NRao]

Not my normal source, but ....... http://idrw.org/aero-india-2017-tejas-p ... r-flights/, claims a push to export.

Check one of the squares.

[Rakesh]

ShauryaT: if you are reading this, please edit your post. Please do not post entire articles from links. Title and link is sufficient. Copyright laws are fairly stringent now. If you want to make a point, quote a portion of the article. But nothing more.

[Cain Marko]

Hmmm.....the news about kaveri powered tejas in 2019 suggests that the ge 404, which is not in, production anymore iirc might be replaced by the kaveri for the mk1a. Would be nothing short of fantastic.

[Rakesh]

I was hesitating from saying the bold part out loud.

I don't want you to hesitate in my statement the the Block 70 is eons ahead of the Tejas. I want you to not just bold what I said, but underline it, italicize it, put a different colour to it and increase the font size. Please DO NOT hesitate ok?

You yourself have stated that the Fsolah blk70 brings more capability to the table than the LCA.

So you finally realise when the choice comes down to which plane is more expendable i.e. disposable...which one do you think the IAF is going to drop? Or further develop? Why waste money on Mk2, when you have Block 70 that can do everything better than a Mk2 can. Budgets are finite. You do realise that is what happened to the Marut as well. We are repeating history again. And we will do this again with the AMCA. We will import to kingdom come and learn nothing in the bargain.

I do NOT think we are qualified enough to tell the IAF that they should not be going in for light, medium, heavy for their 42 squadron makeup but go just light, heavy.

But you are qualified in saying that the IAF is not looking for used jets? You said it.

The IAF has devised its needs based on fighting a 2 front war. If we are solving *just* for the pakis, id say the Sukhoi fleet itself is enough.No need for the rest. But you and I both know that IAF is solving for BAF + PLAAF.

I say again, the RDY-2 radar on the Dash-9 is more than enough against the PAF. Add Rambha and upgraded MiG-29s to the mix and you have a firewall that the PAF will not penetrate. For the Chinese, for now we have the Rambha. The first Katrina will arrive in 2019 and deliveries of all 36 will be complete by 2022.

Saar, vast difference between 100 jets and 12 jets.

Vast difference between spending who-knows-how-many billions on 100 more phoren fighters vs getting used jets. Who is talking about 100 M2Ks? Three to four squadrons does not come to 100 aircraft. An IAF squadron is 18 aircraft. Three squadrons is 54 aircraft. Four squadrons is 72 aircraft.

The thing about quoting past actions is it becomes difficult to draw the line where to stop. before the qatari mirages, IAF wanted brand new mirages onlee, but thanks to our bolitical establishment we had MMRCA circus.

I am assuming the term 'bolitical' is a portmanteau of the words babu and political, but don't blame the political establishment for that screw up. The MMRCA circus happened solely because of a Babu moment of wisdom. A babu who may have long since retired or moved on to another ministry.

Bliss to excuse onlee saar.Had to use that strong word to drive home a point that the Fsolah even in its latest available iteration exceeds the LCA in capability.

You still have not answered my question. So I ask again.

Mk1a does not exist, neither does F-16, Block 70 or Gripen E. But yet, the IAF is eager to buy a phoren aircraft that does not exist, but vehemently oppose a desi aircraft that does not exist either. Please explain.

on an unrelated issue, ive sent an email to webby at br dawt com .. bliss to unblock my IP saar.. its frustrating to not be able to access BR on the laptop .. and the jugaad i have to employ to use multi quote ..

I cannot help you there. But one of the admins will help you.

[Rakesh]

Either this or phuck it and move the lca team to amca, and ask the US and LM to give a good deal for 300 f16 with the diamond wing, full prod and export rights plus a carrier version for the navy.

Have a private player to churn these out till 2030+ and have hal create and produce fgfa. Ada can get the amca rolling in the meanwhile and both hal and the private player can fight for production rights when out is ready 2035

Saar, I will one up you! Ask the US and LM to give a good deal for 300 F-35As, full production rights aka screwdrivergiri (forget the export rights), plus a F-35B version for the Navy. You want strategic partnership? That should be our demand for strategic partnership.

[Rakesh]

Hmmm.....the news about kaveri powered tejas in 2019 suggests that the ge 404, which is not in, production anymore iirc might be replaced by the kaveri for the mk1a. Would be nothing short of fantastic.

If that happens, there is no need for 100 single engine fighters. Oh wait, I am sure some excuse will be devised. Only phoren is good.

[Cain Marko]

Either this or phuck it and move the lca team to amca, and ask the US and LM to give a good deal for 300 f16 with the diamond wing, full prod and export rights plus a carrier version for the navy.

Have a private player to churn these out till 2030+ and have hal create and produce fgfa. Ada can get the amca rolling in the meanwhile and both hal and the private player can fight for production rights when out is ready 2035

Saar, I will one up you! Ask the US and LM to give a good deal for 300 F-35As, full production rights aka screwdrivergiri (forget the export rights), plus a F-35B version for the Navy. You want strategic partnership? That should be our demand for strategic partnership.

But saar, how Will that be possible. Isn't it like a consortium that produces the jsf with final assembly In usa? Definitely worth pushing though.

[Rakesh]

I have been led to believe that America wants a strategic partnership with India. So show me the strategic partnership.

Don't give me a 40 year old langoti and say that it is great, when you have spanking new Ralph Lauren underwear.

I mean the Chinese threat is really bad. Only AESA fighters can stop the might of the Chinese Air Force. Dhoti Shiver!

[Rakesh]

On a totally different note...where is Y I Patel? I miss that guy!

[Karan M]

See nirav, I am not blindly believing that the Tejas is the next best thing since sliced bread. In a knife fight vis-a-vis an AESA-equipped F-Solah, Block 70....her survivability is moot.

Actually in a knife fight, Tejas has a good chance. The Block70 has added weight and is no sprightly early unit
Also, the Tejas will have a very good ITR, HMDS+ Python-V. The F-16 HMDS + Aim-9X. Can go any which way.

In BVR, the Block70 may have a more powerful radar (though not by a huge margin and not a decider in presence of AWACs), longer ranged missiles (Derby/Astra Mk1 vs latest AMRAAMs), powerful EW suite (which both sides will field), and what really counts - higher payload (means more BVR missiles) and longer legs (persistence) without IFR.

[brar_w]

The block 70 is / will certainly not be purchased for its dogfighting skills (most likely use CFT's and heavy payloads). You have the same Israeli weapons cleared on it and the same HMD's as well. What you are likely to see if this deal ever materializes is a CFT equipped medium weight configuration with a large PGM lineup - i.e. something that could bulk up to MMRCA specifications in terms of payload and possibly range.

Of course Northrop has made some key advancements in AESA by removing the AN/APG-80 specific hardware and having some commonality with the F-35 radar (Same T/R modules made out of the same foundry for all of their X band offerings) but given that the SABR is a clean sheet (practically) someone would have to invest in the software program to really get the modes and capabilities of a mature set. Hardware is one thing but one has to fund software and capability development. The USAF is only going to fund basic air to air and air to ground given that beyond the ANG birds only a handful of their F-16's are expected to be upgraded now.

Given that Falcon Edge is not going to be an option it's better to go for the SUFA EA/EW configuration built around the new Raytheon mission computers. The USAF spent all the EA/EW efforts on the F-15 program so its better to align with the IDF on the digital internal EW self protection suite. The basic SUFA configuration including antenna mounts and the added space on the spine has room to grow with mission needs. The biggest advantage on the F-16 is that it is already cleared for most Israeli, US and even European weapons (Even the meteor consortium plans on integration once they look beyond the 3 platforms that were originally slated to get capability). Given that the F-16 is a UAI platform this bodes well for future western munitions as well.

[Cybaru]

I think engagements in air are going to be easier when the foe is grouped tightly in a small region like in the case of Pakistan. Awacs can see long ranges and will be able to direct the right assets with right weapons to locate and engage. In this case, I think, we will probably run multiple types of engagements, some might be seek and destroy, denial and restriction of air space to help ground forces do what they need to and first look for any BMD/SEAD/DEAD work. As long as we have assets that can completely dominate the airspace (two or three MKI squadrons supported by other types), we will have the luxury of making up the numbers even with lesserest assets like hawk 132(cas role), which will do fine in such a theater. IMO, this whole conversation of gold plating types because the other force has this type is kinda bizzare. It's not like boxing where you have to be in the same weight class to get in the ring. Assuming we had f-35B, we could send that in to take out all sorts of things on the first two days and then change the mix for A2A police work with tejas/mig-29s and move those JSF assets elsewhere. We could task MKIs to deliver Saaw type run way denial and then leave them sitting until they are needed again and we will have awacs top cover throughout such an engagement (tracking, plotting, keep things under a tight eye).

The worst case outcome done by comparing similar types is kinda moot and doesn't do justice to all the force multipliers we are adding to the system. Those force multipliers are there to make things asymmetric and give an edge to platforms and not require they all are gold plated. (Why can't MKI be tasked against all sorts of inventory of PAF?) I used to think that the khan platforms were all gold plated. They aren't actually. They are rather good enough and middle of the road, but they are connected and can share information and co-ordinate really well. They do have gold plated stuff they use for first strike and then they move to middle layer mud movers to make a dent in the war.

Have these mano on mano type fights happened in the last 2 decades? And if so in how many engagements did it take for such a fight to occur (that is if the XYZ airforce flew 300 sorties in an active war, it engaged twice in those three hundred times, and what was the outcome of those engagements)?

A good but dated article.
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a284587.pdf