'Make in India' Single engined fighter

ragupta
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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby ragupta » 01 Mar 2017 00:24

I feel that LCA-Mk2 is deliberately delayed, because of IAF penchant for changing mind when they see something on the horizon, specially for local product. IAF has played lot of hard ball with R&D, so I think they want to make sure they get all that is ordered and use Mk1A, still a much better product that what is available at this price point anywhere in the world. But I get the feeling that the focus is on manufacturing rather than hurry up LCA-Mk2. Except for doing the same little more nothing is new in LCA-Mk2. so no question on not being able to achieve it.

The primary focus should be to get twin engine plane flying ASAP and start building knowledge base.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Indranil » 01 Mar 2017 00:48

LCA Mk2 is delayed because there is no agreed upon leader in the ADA-AF faction who has a clear idea of what is required of the LCA AF Mk2. On the Navy side, Mao sir has a clear idea, but not enough power.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cosmo_R » 01 Mar 2017 00:52

@Rakesh ^^^. Let me try and answer this "While MII is designed to increase jobs, moving an aircraft production line from the US (or from Sweden or Somalia) is not going to make any dent in unemployment in India."

Absolutely true. Nearly 50% of India's population is involved in agriculture and yet it contributes less than 20% of GDP. Services' GDP contribution is disproportionately high relative to population. Only manufacturing can facilitate the transition of the population from agriculture to manufacturing.

That obvious factoid said, how do you make a dent? Since the 1960s, we've shunned the work that the 'Asian Tiger' and later the PRC grabbed. I do remember all BS I had to listen to about import substitution and the dignity of Indian labor doing piecework/assembly etc.

Any MII effort in India is simply a way to redirect as much of the spending on defense to create a multiplier effect in other sectors of the economy. It won't make huge dent but even a small one will start the ball rolling.

If the IAF did not need fighters, the whole F-16/Gripen saga would be moot. Modi and co are simply trying to leverage as much of this spending need to ignite a local ecosystem. The F-16 stuff may be over because of Trump but when the original proposal was made by LM, it talked of $15 bn in exports from India. Whether you believe that or not, if the deal went through you could hold them to these projections. It would lay the base for a professional approach to arms exports from a marketing standpoint.

The last point is very important as the Japanese have found. You can build great stuff like the Soryu class subs and even go far at a G2G level with OZ but ultimately the French won because of more experience in selling. The Japanese companies have no arms sales experience and the GoJ even less.

I grant that in the now unlikely event of an F-16 line (or Gripen because they'll just raise prices) in India and the touted $15 bn in exports would make a dent in Indian unemployment. But it would have set the stage for a professional arms export industry.

Making a real dent in Indian unemployment requires political change. NaMo aside, the rest of the pols are happy with more poor who depend on them for handouts.

Finally, in reference to one of your earlier comments about "No one will come to India's aid" if we got into a scrap with PRC, you're probably right. The US is not going to risk getting nuked because of India. But as I remember from 1962, despite constant snubbing from JLN and VKKM, the Globemasters delivered stuff 24x7. Today India and the US have a much better relationship. We don't need the US in the fight but it's always helpful to have them dissuade the pakis from joining in and of course, keeping the really high capability stuff the PRC stuff focused on the Pacific. The Swedish Bikini Ski Team won't work though it might be easier on the eyes. That was the point I was making.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cosmo_R » 01 Mar 2017 01:04

OK. ragupta's point ^^^ made me think India should go whole hog and take the LCA Mk1, build out the 120 units as they plan to but scrap this idea of a Mk2. Instead of a 1/2 meter here and 12 mm there, take the existing plane and just make it bigger for long legs and a greater payload. Big enough that you can fit a F414 comfortably and a Elta 2052/Big A$@ Uttam. IOW, focus on extending the 'wheelbase'. No new 'cutting edge stuff'/no stealth, just what's on the MK1. Give it another name and work on the AMCA

Incremental changes to MK1 posing as Mk2 will be another belly flop in the sand. The prefect is the enemy of the good enough.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby ragupta » 01 Mar 2017 01:09

Indranil wrote:LCA Mk2 is delayed because there is no agreed upon leader in the ADA-AF faction who has a clear idea of what is required of the LCA AF Mk2. On the Navy side, Mao sir has a clear idea, but not enough power.


Because MK1A meets 95 of the objective, the only things M2k offers is more range, more capability, creeping up to Medium category, so the question will be then why Medium category, if you want everything in light category. What is the scope of light, medium and heavy, define it clearly and then make it happen. Navy has a definite need, but cannot foot all the bills I guess, but they seem to have the talent and motivation, as it is govt foots the bill in the end. Parikar must make sure they get the fund to move forward on this as quickly, IAF specs can wait.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 01 Mar 2017 02:32

Feb 28, 2017 :: Sell India F-16s — and Build Them Abroad
BY JOHN VENABLE, SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION

It’s the right move for the United States, even if it makes the Trump administration uncomfortable.


Earlier this month, a delegation of U.S. government and business officials flew to New Delhi. Its mission: to reassure the Indian government that the U.S. really wants them to replenish its fighter fleet with F-16s. It’s the right move for a lot of reasons — some of them potentially uncomfortable to the new Trump administration.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rakesh » 01 Mar 2017 02:35

Cosmo: Do you know how to do quotes in the forum? If so, can you do that please? Much appreciated.

Cosmo_R wrote:Absolutely true. Nearly 50% of India's population is involved in agriculture and yet it contributes less than 20% of GDP. Services' GDP contribution is disproportionately high relative to population. Only manufacturing can facilitate the transition of the population from agriculture to manufacturing.

That obvious factoid said, how do you make a dent? Since the 1960s, we've shunned the work that the 'Asian Tiger' and later the PRC grabbed. I do remember all BS I had to listen to about import substitution and the dignity of Indian labor doing piecework/assembly etc.

Any MII effort in India is simply a way to redirect as much of the spending on defense to create a multiplier effect in other sectors of the economy. It won't make huge dent but even a small one will start the ball rolling.

I am not denying your theory. But how is assembly - which is what this is - of a plane going to get the ball rolling? Now if we are going to assemble this plane in India from the global supplier base, how will this affect other sectors of the economy?

Secondly, how are you going to take an anpat kisaan (uneducated farmer, as in cannot read or write) who knows little or no English and tell him to assemble fighters? Or for that matter assemble anything?

How are we going to transition a largely agrarian population into a manufacturing mindset without a serious infusion of education? Which kisaans are we going to choose? What is the cut off age to determine which kisaans will understand aircraft manufacturing and which will not? 30? 20? 15? Are we going to teach aircraft manufacturing onlee in English or in the many languages which India's agrarian population lives in? Are we going to have aircraft manufacturing lessons in Tamil? Kannada? Malayalam, Haryanvi? Gujarati? Bengali?

Cosmo_R wrote:If the IAF did not need fighters, the whole F-16/Gripen saga would be moot. Modi and co are simply trying to leverage as much of this spending need to ignite a local ecosystem. The F-16 stuff may be over because of Trump but when the original proposal was made by LM, it talked of $15 bn in exports from India. Whether you believe that or not, if the deal went through you could hold them to these projections. It would lay the base for a professional approach to arms exports from a marketing standpoint.

The last point is very important as the Japanese have found. You can build great stuff like the Soryu class subs and even go far at a G2G level with OZ but ultimately the French won because of more experience in selling. The Japanese companies have no arms sales experience and the GoJ even less.

I grant that in the now unlikely event of an F-16 line (or Gripen because they'll just raise prices) in India and the touted $15 bn in exports would make a dent in Indian unemployment. But it would have set the stage for a professional arms export industry.

Making a real dent in Indian unemployment requires political change. NaMo aside, the rest of the pols are happy with more poor who depend on them for handouts.

I am sorry, but you are making the same mistake again. Stop tying a plane to a vision. Make In India is designed to ignite a local ecosystem. I agree there. But my disagreement begins at purchasing F-Solah/Paper-NG to ignite that local ecosystem. Because all we are doing is assembly. There is no tech transfer involved. Neither will Boeing or LM provide that.

Secondly, I would not discount LM's proposal yet. Just because it is reported in the media, does not make it necessarily true. President Trump or his administration has yet to come out and state otherwise. Till that time, LM is still in the game. That is how I see it.

Since you mentioned $15 billion in exports. Let me ask again;

1) Has India determined what is the captive audience for the global F-16 fleet that wants to upgrade their F-16s to the Block 70 standard or which countries want to purchase brand new F-16s, Block 70s?

2) Who determines the marketing strategy for those Block 70s? Is it India? Is it the US? Is it LM? Are we allow to sell Block 70s to Iran? Myanmar? Venezuela? The line is ours no? We own it right?

3) Since the line is being transferred to India...it is our responsibility to find out the captive audience? Or is LM going to do that for us? Will they have time to do that with LM being focused on the F-35 production? Let us assume they do. Will they be collecting fees for finding the customers for us?

Cosmo_R wrote:Finally, in reference to one of your earlier comments about "No one will come to India's aid" if we got into a scrap with PRC, you're probably right. The US is not going to risk getting nuked because of India. But as I remember from 1962, despite constant snubbing from JLN and VKKM, the Globemasters delivered stuff 24x7. Today India and the US have a much better relationship. We don't need the US in the fight but it's always helpful to have them dissuade the pakis from joining in and of course, keeping the really high capability stuff the PRC stuff focused on the Pacific. The Swedish Bikini Ski Team won't work though it might be easier on the eyes. That was the point I was making.

Saar, even that is not guaranteed. America will not interfere unless it is in her interest. That is not unique to America though. All countries are like that. So next time the Chinese come knocking over the Himalayas and the Paks come knocking over the plains of Rajasthan, what incentive is there for America to join in the fight? What interests of America are actually threatened in a conflict of that nature? This strategic partnership is only to assist America in her stand off against China in South East Asia.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rakesh » 01 Mar 2017 02:58

Cosmo_R wrote:OK. ragupta's point ^^^ made me think India should go whole hog and take the LCA Mk1, build out the 120 units as they plan to but scrap this idea of a Mk2. Instead of a 1/2 meter here and 12 mm there, take the existing plane and just make it bigger for long legs and a greater payload. Big enough that you can fit a F414 comfortably and a Elta 2052/Big A$@ Uttam. IOW, focus on extending the 'wheelbase'. No new 'cutting edge stuff'/no stealth, just what's on the MK1. Give it another name and work on the AMCA

Incremental changes to MK1 posing as Mk2 will be another belly flop in the sand. The prefect is the enemy of the good enough.

Why is the idea of a Mk2 so anathema to you? :)

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cybaru » 01 Mar 2017 03:13

NRao wrote:
Cybaru wrote:Do we need to buy SIngle engined fighters from USA to make bulbs, scooters, planes, ships anything and everything in India???


OK, let me try again.

* Make in India (MII) is about increasing jobs, specifically in the manufacturing sector, in India
* India is encouraging anyone who wants to manufacturing - anything - to do so in India. Off shoring of manuafcturing
* Defense happens to be a sub sector within the manufacturing sector, but it is NOT defense specific


OKAY good, then lets stop saying how F16 will vitalize the aviation industry. It really brings assembling to India, nothing else. "Assembled in India". We are already world leaders in that assembling from Russian and non russian sources.

NRao wrote:
Cybaru wrote:

* The main argument of MII is employment and nothing else

* The filling of a matrix, etc is related to the Defense sector and its specifications of ToT, etc - absolutely nothing to do with MII. They both are two separate, independent requirements. The ToT/Matrix is a requirement of the MoD and the MII an encouragement of the GoI. The MoD has made the MII a requirement for the single engine air cra


Then lets take it to manufacturing thread in Technology and Economic forum. If the aim is just to add jobs, I am sure we have a job creation thread somewhere. This googlydock of mis information that this will serve all our missing technology needs is IMO plain wrong!

NRao wrote:I am not advocating imports. BUT, India cannot get to where she wants to be if India PLANS on delivering a MK2 in 2030-35. By then the issue is not about how good the product is - it is great - but is it useful would be the question. I have said this before. ALL 4th Gen planes need to completed by 2022 (ish?) - delivered. I am not even confident the the MK1A will come into play. On time that is.

I suggest anything we propose needs to be drawn on a timeline.


Glad you made this point "ALL 4th Gen planes need to completed by 2022 (ish?) - delivered."

If you are expecting 4th generation planes to be completed by 2022, how does it make sense to start producing 3rd generation planes in 2021 in India? 2021 assuming that we sign the contract by 2018.

* How long will that take?
* When will we finish going from ckd to skd to making f16 from raw materials?
* How will you support F16s till 2070 when turkey has a difficult time supporting them in 2017 and they did all the above for a decade?

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cybaru » 01 Mar 2017 03:22

Cosmo_R wrote:Absolutely true. Nearly 50% of India's population is involved in agriculture and yet it contributes less than 20% of GDP. Services' GDP contribution is disproportionately high relative to population. Only manufacturing can facilitate the transition of the population from agriculture to manufacturing.


Sure, but the services economy is where should be aiming to be. Most economies go from agriculture to manufacturing to services. The manufacturing economies are all going the way of automated robots in the next 10 years. The capital invested will contribute to capital growth for the investors but not a corresponding increase in value for ordinary people around them. This is perhaps a discussion best left for Tech & economic forum on how we should deal with the changes to total factor of productivity and the effects of tax revenue due to robots manufacturing things!

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby srai » 01 Mar 2017 03:40

NRao wrote:I am not advocating imports. BUT, India cannot get to where she wants to be if India PLANS on delivering a MK2 in 2030-35. By then the issue is not about how good the product is - it is great - but is it useful would be the question. I have said this before. ALL 4th Gen planes need to completed by 2022 (ish?) - delivered. I am not even confident the the MK1A will come into play. On time that is.

I suggest anything we propose needs to be drawn on a timeline.


NRao, given where things are you are looking at 2022 as the earliest date where MII F-16/Gripen would come (directly manufactured at LM, USA or SAAB Sweden) if the deal is signed within a year or so (which is next to impossible in India with all its demands for ToT etc). It takes 36 months from contract signing to first plane delivery from an OEM's production line. Remember there are hundreds/thousands of Tier-1/2/3 suppliers/manufacturers that feed a final assembly line. For Indian assembled planes, the timelines would be a lot longer. Then there is the whole complicated and time-consuming process of establishing suppliers in India, which won't be taken kindly by the likes of "Country First" leaders like Trump. That will delay things further.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 01 Mar 2017 04:20

srai wrote:
NRao wrote:I am not advocating imports. BUT, India cannot get to where she wants to be if India PLANS on delivering a MK2 in 2030-35. By then the issue is not about how good the product is - it is great - but is it useful would be the question. I have said this before. ALL 4th Gen planes need to completed by 2022 (ish?) - delivered. I am not even confident the the MK1A will come into play. On time that is.

I suggest anything we propose needs to be drawn on a timeline.


NRao, given where things are you are looking at 2022 as the earliest date where MII F-16/Gripen would come (directly manufactured at LM, USA or SAAB Sweden) if the deal is signed within a year or so (which is next to impossible in India with all its demands for ToT etc). It takes 36 months from contract signing to first plane delivery from an OEM's production line. Remember there are hundreds/thousands of Tier-1/2/3 suppliers/manufacturers that feed a final assembly line. For Indian assembled planes, the timelines would be a lot longer. Then there is the whole complicated and time-consuming process of establishing suppliers in India, which won't be taken kindly by the likes of "Country First" leaders like Trump. That will delay things further.


Yeah, the picture is certainly not pretty. Disappointed with the imports timeline and the rate of production of the LCA.

I expect a clearer picture to arise in July, 2017.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby srai » 01 Mar 2017 05:01

^^^

Even after the first planes arrive, it takes the IAF around 3 years to attain FOC on that new type. Other things like attaining high serviceability rates take time too.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 01 Mar 2017 05:12

Cybaru wrote:OKAY good, then lets stop saying how F16 will vitalize the aviation industry. It really brings assembling to India, nothing else. "Assembled in India". We are already world leaders in that assembling from Russian and non russian sources.


No idea what "vitalize the aviation industry" means, but, as I have posted earlier, such projects should help India in certain areas: supply chain, manufacturing techniques/processes and the like.

I have also tied the F-16 to the engine being proposed for the AMCA.

Then lets take it to manufacturing thread in Technology and Economic forum. If the aim is just to add jobs, I am sure we have a job creation thread somewhere. This googlydock of mis information that this will serve all our missing technology needs is IMO plain wrong!

NRao wrote:I am not advocating imports. BUT, India cannot get to where she wants to be if India PLANS on delivering a MK2 in 2030-35. By then the issue is not about how good the product is - it is great - but is it useful would be the question. I have said this before. ALL 4th Gen planes need to completed by 2022 (ish?) - delivered. I am not even confident the the MK1A will come into play. On time that is.

I suggest anything we propose needs to be drawn on a timeline.


Glad you made this point "ALL 4th Gen planes need to completed by 2022 (ish?) - delivered."

If you are expecting 4th generation planes to be completed by 2022, how does it make sense to start producing 3rd generation planes in 2021 in India? 2021 assuming that we sign the contract by 2018.

* How long will that take?
* When will we finish going from ckd to skd to making f16 from raw materials?
* How will you support F16s till 2070 when turkey has a difficult time supporting them in 2017 and they did all the above for a decade?


Which 3rd gen plane? F-16? Yeah, dump it.

But, dump the LCA in favor of the AMCA. Dump the MKI in favor of the FGFA (though I think that s dead). And dump the teens/Gripen/Rafale in favor of the F-35.

BTW, IMHO, the F-16 came into the picture because of the Indian proposal to enhance the GE F414 INS6 for the AMCA. Do not know if it would have otherwise.

And, while at it, check out: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7220&start=2840#p2121430. There is a LOT more that BR - for whatever reason - ignores. The biggest story being the SCS. I just do not think one can discuss a "F-16/18" in isolation. Gripen and Rafale, yes, not any story with the US. There are just too many threads between India and the US.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cybaru » 01 Mar 2017 08:32

NRao wrote:I think (or at least the way I do it) is a "time-line" needs three things: User/client, provider/researcher and opponent (of the client/user). Only then will the picture be clear. So, I have no problem if the MK2 is delivered in 2035 - great plane, etc. But once placed in conjunction with what China MAY have, then the picture changes. IMHO it is too late. 2030 (not 2035) should be about when the AMCA should be delivered.

That is the correct time line for AMCA 2025-2035 first flight to delivery.
LCA mk2 is around 2020-2021.
What are these 2030-2035 dates for Mk2 based on? Are we making up dates? exaggerated claims to support the theory you have? Am I reading your post wrong?

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Mar 2017 08:39

Cybaru wrote:That is the correct time line for AMCA 2025-2035 first flight to delivery.
LCA mk2 is around 2020-2021.
What are these 2030-2035 dates for Mk2 based on? Are we making up dates? exaggerated claims to support the theory you have? Am I reading your post wrong?


It will be nothing short of magic if they can deliver Mk2 by 2020-21. A more feasible timeline seems like:
2021-22 - MK1A production begins, LCA mk2 first flight,
2026 - Mk1A production ends, LCA mk2 production begins, AMCA first flight
2030-35 Mk1A production ends, AMCA production begins

More or less. In the meanwhile, Su-30 line will be shifted to FGFA and that will address the PLAAF threat

During this time, private industry will also be brought forward either via MII single engined fighter or MII twin engined fighter or both. My guess is TASL joins with Boeing or LM or Saab for F-16/F-18/Gripen and Reliance moves with Rafale.

Yes, IAF will have some diversity around 2035, but it has seen worse:

LCA - 10 sqds
Rafale - 6 sqds
Mirage2K + Mig-29 - 6 sqds (Phase out via AMCA - 126 numbers)
Su-30MKI - 14 sqds
F-16/f-18/Saab - 6 sqds
FGFA - 6 sqds

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 01 Mar 2017 09:15

CM,

Sir, which cave have you been staying in?

When do the Su-30 MKIs retire? :wink: (Don't look: By, say 2030, when the Sukhois retire,). IF at all, I would imagine, the MKIs will be pretty badly beat up - but I will leave that to the elders on the board.

And FGFA? taja taja khabar. "government deciding to set up a committee to examine how India would benefit from the programme" ........... headed by a 3 star IAF general (is that what they have in the IAF) or Vice Marshal?

OK, back to the drawing board for you.

And, have you figured out what the Chinese will have? And possibly the Pakis too? Expect every nation around India to fly the Chinese planes - they will matter. By 2030 all of them will be indebted to China.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 01 Mar 2017 09:16

CY,

Google. There is plenty on that topic from Balaji around AI17. Those are his dates. Very surprised that you have not done something as basic as that.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cybaru » 01 Mar 2017 09:39

Actually I have nrao, i don't you can pass of those dates and prove them to be right. I saw all his interviews.what did I miss?

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 01 Mar 2017 09:59

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/02/ ... -2030.html

‘If you consider that the LCA Mk.1 will be built till 2024 and the LCA Mk.2, when ordered, should be built between 2030-35, then 2035 is good target for production of the AMCA,’ Balaji says.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Marten » 01 Mar 2017 10:15

LCA Tejas is superior to France's Mirage and China's JF-17 fighter jets
"Every year, 16 Tejas aircraft will be built on two assembly lines. By 2024, all the aircraft will be inducted in the IAF whereas Tejas Mark 2 version will be ready by 2021," Siddesha was quoted as saying by Times of India.

H Siddesha, project director and technology director of LCA.

Data points shared in earlier posts are different from the production team. 40 Mk1 should be completed by 2019. Mk1a better be ready for production by then.

In any case, NO other make (desi, videsi or antarikshi) will be ready for production in India. We have to start accepting this ground reality and stop wishing for some random manufacturer and "set up base" or "improve capabilities overnight". Nope, will not happen. Gird the loins and start prepping for 24 birds a year by 2022!

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rakesh » 01 Mar 2017 10:19

Cain Marko wrote:It will be nothing short of magic if they can deliver Mk2 by 2020-21. A more feasible timeline seems like:
2021-22 - MK1A production begins, LCA mk2 first flight,
2026 - Mk1A production ends, LCA mk2 production begins, AMCA first flight
2030-35 Mk1A production ends, AMCA production begins

From H Siddesha, project director and technology director of LCA,
http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/nat ... ets-370263

Delivering a guest lecture on the inaugural day of 'Footprints X7' in Vadodara on Friday, Siddesha said that the IAF has placed an order of 123 Tejas Mark 1 and that all the aircraft will be inducted in the Indian Air Force by 2024.

"Every year, 16 Tejas aircraft will be built on two assembly lines. By 2024, all the aircraft will be inducted in the IAF whereas Tejas Mark 2 version will be ready by 2021," Siddesha was quoted as saying by Times of India.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Mar 2017 11:02

NRao wrote:CM,

Sir, which cave have you been staying in?

When do the Su-30 MKIs retire? :wink: (Don't look: By, say 2030, when the Sukhois retire,). IF at all, I would imagine, the MKIs will be pretty badly beat up - but I will leave that to the elders on the board.

And FGFA? taja taja khabar. "government deciding to set up a committee to examine how India would benefit from the programme" ........... headed by a 3 star IAF general (is that what they have in the IAF) or Vice Marshal?

OK, back to the drawing board for you.

And, have you figured out what the Chinese will have? And possibly the Pakis too? Expect every nation around India to fly the Chinese planes - they will matter. By 2030 all of them will be indebted to China.


So, you contend that MKI starts retiring around 2030! They haven't even started the MLU and Sirji you want to retire them. And all this based on some internet journo (not like he is some IAF/MOD official). Ya, I'll believe it, when I see it. We are talking of an AF that still flogs the flogger and fishbed.

2040 onwards, possibly. And very possibly, a lot later. Those Russki planes are built pretty tough although they might not look as slick and clean as their western counterparts. Just look at the fishbed, ******** refuses to die. And the MKI is built much better with titanium and composite elements. WRT its abilities, I'd wager that as long as 4th gen aircraft are pitted against each other, the MKI and flanker series will always be in the top contenders with all due respect to uber typhoons, rafales and teens.

As far as the FGFA is concerned too, we'll see. Somehow I doubt a flagship program like this one is going to be abandoned by either side. One way or the other, FGFA/Pakfa will very likely come to the IAF, and I'll wager a LOT earlier than any JSF or AMCA.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Mar 2017 11:17

Rakesh wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:It will be nothing short of magic if they can deliver Mk2 by 2020-21. A more feasible timeline seems like:
2021-22 - MK1A production begins, LCA mk2 first flight,
2026 - Mk1A production ends, LCA mk2 production begins, AMCA first flight
2030-35 Mk1A production ends, AMCA production begins

From H Siddesha, project director and technology director of LCA,
http://www.indiatvnews.com/politics/nat ... ets-370263

Delivering a guest lecture on the inaugural day of 'Footprints X7' in Vadodara on Friday, Siddesha said that the IAF has placed an order of 123 Tejas Mark 1 and that all the aircraft will be inducted in the Indian Air Force by 2024.

"Every year, 16 Tejas aircraft will be built on two assembly lines. By 2024, all the aircraft will be inducted in the IAF whereas Tejas Mark 2 version will be ready by 2021," Siddesha was quoted as saying by Times of India.


Let us hope he is right. But like I said Admiralji, this would be nothing short of magic. There won't be anyone happier if they manage to deliver mk2 by 2021 but we have all heard such talk before. Just take a gander at the Gripen NG program timeline - they first floated the idea around 2007-08, and 10 years since, the bird still has not flown.

We are looking at some pretty drastic changes to the existing airframe - including moving the wings further outboard, increasing the length etc. Even first flight by 2021 is optimistic but may be they are holding out some surprises for us (or so we desperately hope).

As far as delivering 123 LCA by 2024, it might be possible but that does not change my time lines by much. Do also consider what Cmde Balaji had to say in the interview to Livefist - mk2 between 2030-35.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Philip » 01 Mar 2017 12:47

Let's stick to known facts as of now.ALL MKIs are to be upgraded to what we called "Super Sukhoi" std. some time ago.AESA radars,brand new engines,BMos and new AAMs not mentioned thus far but would be the new ones under dev. in Ru ,ASTRA and other options-western/Israeli BVRs.
As of now,almost 200 MKIs have been manufactured with current ones having 80% indigenous raw material! That is quite an achievement,more than anything else achieved with western fighters. MKI production is currently around 12+/yr.This too can be ramped up for the remaining ones and the news of a further 42 has been in the air for quite some time. The upgrade deal is on the verge of being signed. The aircraft will be able to fly for at least 2 decades more,upto 2040+ see how long the MIG-21s have served us!

Secondly,MIG-29 engines have been made/assembled here for quite some time. New RU legislation as of Nov. 2016 provides for Ru OEMs to directly supply any Indian entity for Sov/Ru milware of all 3 services.This will dramatically increase availability of Ru weapon systems. The MIG29/35 offer of setting up the entire manufacturing plant in India is on offer with TOT just like the MKI. This could be the second line of med fighters that MP was talking about.They would be the cheapest by far when compared with any western equiv. including Rafales.One could get 2-3 MIG29UG/35s for the cost of just one Rafale.

For the moment an accelerated Jaguar upgrade programme would help in the strike role,supporting the med. aircraft. No idea if an armoured "tank" version akin to the MIG-27s has ever been considered.it would be worth examining this prospect when the upgrades are being done .I am sure that the Jags could do the business that MIG-27s are doing now.These could even be new build ones.Around 200 upgraded Jags dedicated for the ground war /strike would be very potent and inexpensive for the IAF/HAL to build and induct. Armed with the latest PGMs,they would be the ideal "bomb trucks" that a former CNS of the USN advocated instead of costly "sports cars" doing the biz.

Two lines are being set up for LCA manufacture at HAL Blr. Each will produce 8/yr. That makes a grand total of 16 LCAs/yr. If we set up in the pvt. sector another line,we will be able to boost production even more.Reliance will be salivating at the prospect.So by 2027,we would have at least 120+ LCAs in the air. It is the low LCA prod. capability that requires the second light fighter. If as Prof. Das says that the max numbers/type in the inventory should be the light fighter,as the demands in support of the ground war (Air-Land battle) is the greatest in any conflict in the subcontinent,even if LCA prod. is around 18+/yr,we would still be short of another 180+ fighters with the 200+ MIG 21/27s being retired,plus the 21 Bisons too requyiring replacement anytime post 2020.

Simply put,if we have to go in for another light type from the West,then the latest bird would be best.AS said in earlier posts,the 2 Yanqui birds are long in the tooth,overburdened with too much eqpt. and have no future whatsoever either in the IAF or in the export market. The Gripen is the best of the lot and if SAAB agree to assist in the dev. of the LCA varianst,MK-2,whatever,there could be some commonality of eqpt,avionics and weaponry. If we are fated to have two basic trainer types,with requirements in the hundreds,one could live with the same for the lightweight requirement.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby srai » 01 Mar 2017 16:07

^^^

As far as the LCA goes, all of the major components (i.e. wings, fuselage, etc) are being outsourced to Tier-1 private players like L&T. HAL will be the final integrator. Something like 80% of the production/manufacturing of LCA is being outsourced to private players over the next few years.

Again, the question of how many a year/capacity comes down to firm orders by the IAF. The orders are for 123 units. Accordingly, HAL is setting up 16/year capacity with a 25/year max capacity once all major outsourcing occurs. If the orders are for more like 200+ units, then the capacity will be increased in consultation with the end-user and GoI, which needs to approve/fund further expansion. The second production line expansion for 8/year was recently approved at a cost of around $200 million.

It takes time to get started but once it is humming along the orders need to be flowing to take advantage of this. Too often in India, subsequent orders don't come (or don't come in time--remember that 36-months lead time), thus disrupting hard-earned synergy between hundreds/thousands of suppliers, manufactures and integrators.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Philip » 01 Mar 2017 18:41

With Trump in his speech saying that companies like Lockheed,etc. are bringing back jobs home,the prospect of shifting an entire aircraft prod. package to India,with TOT whatever, is less likely to happen as the US will lose out on all the support for this aging beauty,the "great white hope" being the F-16.

Mr.Modi should stick to the "make in India/made in India" mantra here and support the LCA to the max.

Here's a piece which supports Prof. Das' thesis about the importance of large numbers of light fighters for the GA role,due top heaviest % of losses coming from AAA fire. The little Gnat was ,in his VAYU piece,never lost to GA fire despite hundreds of sorties. What if we started a Gnat retro tech-demo using composites for weight reduction and a more powerful engine? The Ivchenko engine on the Yak-130 seems to be of similar size with a more powrrful 10%+ thrust. The Adour is longer but smaller in dia.Interesting prospect at least for academic purposes.

http://www.delhidefencereview.com/
Xcpts:

On the Efficacy of Air Defence Artillery in India-Pakistan Wars
By Colonel Mandeep Singh - February 1, 2017

1965 India Pakistan War

The 22 day war was a culmination of skirmishes which had started in the Rann of Kutch in April 1965. After the failure of Operation Gibraltar, Pakistan launched Operation Grand Slam on September 1, 1965. IAF was called in on the first day as Chhamb- Jaurian was threatened by the Pakistani Army (PA). IAF responded within an hour of being called in, launching 28 sorties in aid of the Indian Army (IA) but lost a Vampire aircraft on the very first mission itself to Pakistani AAA in addition to three more being lost to PAF. It was not until September 3, 1965 that IAF succeeded in shooting down a PAF F-86 Sabre, incidentally the same day Indian AAA also got its first kill as Havildar C Perumal of 27 AD Regiment shot down a Sabre while defending Tawi Bridge.

While the role of the two Air Forces in the ’65 war has been celebrated and written about, the contribution of AAA units on either side has been largely ignored even though they were quite effective in thwarting the enemy’s air actions.

IAF lost 69 aircraft during this war, of which 35 were lost on the ground to PAF air raids. What is of interest is that of the 34 lost in the air, 15 aircraft were lost to PAF in air combat and 10 were shot down by Pakistani AAA. In addition to this, at least two IAF aircraft were lost when they crashed on their way back to base after being hit by Pak AAA. In all, 35 percent of IAF losses in the air were due to Pakistani AAA.

Indian AAA did one better as it claimed 25 of the total 43 PAF losses in the ’65 war as against 17 shot down by IAF in the air. One PAF F-86 was lost on the ground due to an Indian air raid at Sargodha on September 7. Indian AAA thus accounted for 58 percent of total PAF losses during the War.

The 1971 War

Just six years later, India and Pakistan again went to war which culminated in the creation of Bangladesh. While the major land battles were fought in the Eastern theatre, it was the Western theatre that saw greater employment of air power with 4,000 sorties being carried out by IAF here, as against 1,978 in the East. Unsurprisingly, the attrition rate in the West was also higher. IAF had a total of 64 combat related losses – 53 in the West and 11 in the East. Of these, 20 aircraft were lost in air to air combat and 44 to Pakistani AAA. Not only were 68 percent combat related losses due to Pakistani AAA but as per one account 92 percent of all strike aircraft suffered hits/ were damaged by ground fire8.

PAF’s attrition rate was higher, losing as it did 75 aircraft, while carrying out 2870 sorties in all . PAF losses were more due to IAF actions (19 aircraft in all) than Indian AAA fire (15 aircraft in all), but this is not particularly surprising given the fact that most PAF sorties were carried out over its own territory, resulting in reduced exposure to Indian AAA. Even so, almost 44 percent of PAF losses in the air were due to AAA. The losses of both IAF and PAF are summarized below

Summary of Air Losses 1971

Cause IAF PAF
Air to Air Combat 20 19
Anti Aircraft Artillery/ Ground Fire 44 15
Destroyed on Ground 2 28 + 13* *Destroyed by PAF at Dhaka
Total 68 75

Kargil War 1999

The limited war between India and Pakistan in 1999 saw only IAF participating in the conflict with PAF keeping away from combat, probably wary of IAF Mig-29s armed with contemporary air to air missiles. Operation Safed Sagar, as the air operations in the Kargil area were called, was the first time that air power was employed in an high-altitude environment of this nature. IAF suffered some losses during the early days of the operation, all from Pakistani ground-based AD. On 21 May 1999, a Canberra on a photo reconnaissance mission was targeted with a Pakistani shoulder-fired FIM-92 Stinger surface to air missile (SAM), damaging one engine. Actual Indian air operations started on 26 May, 1999 and on the next day itself, IAF lost a Mig-27L and Mig 21 each, the first to an engine flame-out and the second to a Stinger. On 28 May, while undertaking an integrated fighter and helicopter attack on Tololing, IAF lost another aircraft – this time a Mi-17 helicopter, again to Stingers. Following the loss, use of helicopters in an attack role was discontinued. IAF fighter operations were also modified, keeping in mind the presence of Stingers with the Pakistani intruders. Even during this limited war with a purportedly different set of rules, enemy AD had subtly influenced and changed the rules of employment of air power.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Cybaru » 02 Mar 2017 00:09

NRao wrote:http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/02/exclusive-indias-5th-gen-amca-targets-2030.html

‘If you consider that the LCA Mk.1 will be built till 2024 and the LCA Mk.2, when ordered, should be built between 2030-35, then 2035 is good target for production of the AMCA,’ Balaji says.


Thanks for the link Nrao, It does say that and quotes balaji as well. I think it may be a mis quote and the quote should perhaps read Mk2 will be produced till (not between) 2030-2035 when AMCA goes into production. We should hear more in the coming year or so.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rakesh » 02 Mar 2017 02:15

Finland cracks down on direct lobbying for HX fighter
http://www.defensenews.com/articles/fin ... hx-fighter

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rakesh » 02 Mar 2017 04:59

Cosmo_R wrote:Any MII effort in India is simply a way to redirect as much of the spending on defense to create a multiplier effect in other sectors of the economy. It won't make huge dent but even a small one will start the ball rolling.

These are just "some" of the other sectors of the economy that is doing just fine without F-Solahs being made in India. They are not just surviving, they are THRIVING! The Ball does not need to roll, the Ball is already moving full speed ahead!

AUTO INDUSTRY
Nissan exported 700,000 'made-in-India' cars
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/auto ... 395494.cms

POWER INDUSTRY
ABB to make India export hub for high-end power gear
http://www.livemint.com/Industry/cGBTC9 ... -gear.html

AEROSPACE INDUSTRY
Honeywell has been helping Make in India for close to half a century
http://www.financialexpress.com/industr ... ni/553165/

TELECOM INDUSTRY
Here's How India Is Becoming A Hub For Smartphone Manufacturing In South Asia
https://www.forbes.com/sites/krnkashyap ... 717cfc3be8

The Indian economy is at full steam and firing on all four cylinders! Proven Numbers are FACTS - Science explained Mathematically :)

Data released by the (CSO) shows India’s third quarter GDP grew at a faster-than-expected pace despite demonetisation
https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status/836978365210968066

Image

Image

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby srai » 02 Mar 2017 06:54

Cybaru wrote:
NRao wrote:http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/02/exclusive-indias-5th-gen-amca-targets-2030.html



Thanks for the link Nrao, It does say that and quotes balaji as well. I think it may be a mis quote and the quote should perhaps read Mk2 will be produced till (not between) 2030-2035 when AMCA goes into production. We should hear more in the coming year or so.


The approach taken should be to continue production of whichever variant of the LCA is ready at that point in time. That way there are no disruptions to the ongoing production flow. When a new variant is ready, then the production can gradually switch to it.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby GeorgeWelch » 02 Mar 2017 07:01

Rakesh wrote:These are just "some" of the other sectors of the economy that is doing just fine without F-Solahs being made in India. They are not just surviving, they are THRIVING! The Ball does not need to roll, the Ball is already moving full speed ahead!



You should always strive to improve yourself even more.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Karan M » 02 Mar 2017 07:17

Rakesh saar, and orders for 1.1 Lakh crore of local designed eqpt were placed in the past one year and a half itself. Thats $17 Billion, Make in India.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rakesh » 02 Mar 2017 07:19

GeorgeWelch wrote:
Rakesh wrote:These are just "some" of the other sectors of the economy that is doing just fine without F-Solahs being made in India. They are not just surviving, they are THRIVING! The Ball does not need to roll, the Ball is already moving full speed ahead!


You should always strive to improve yourself even more.

I thought manufacturing was non-existant. We need F-16 to save us! So now we have moved the goalpost to we are making, but there is room for improvement! :roll:

Doing screwdrivergiri of 100 aircraft is not going to change anything. If I am wrong in my assessment, then with all the screwdrivergiri we have been doing on the various planes and helicopters over all these decades should make India's aviation industry already mature.

What in screwdrivergiri of the F-16 / Gripen is there, that we have not already learnt in the screwdrivergiri of the Su-30MKI? All three are fourth generation platforms, no?

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Neshant » 02 Mar 2017 11:02

Just about nothing is "locally designed" when buying a foreign fighter plane.
The supply chain already exists overseas. That's how they made the plane.
Its mostly a screw driver turning exercise to foreign specifications.

There is nothing India will gain from this or the FGFA project.
Russia is doing all the important work and sending the bill to India.
Basically India is paying a huge sum to finance aerospace R&D in Russia.

On top of that, the IAF is doing all it can to destroy the LCA project by talk of buying a foreign single engine fighter.
If that comes to be, there will not be a single project worth a damn in India around which real aerospace R&D can occur.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Philip » 02 Mar 2017 12:24

Russia is quite flush with funds and does not need India to finance the FGFA/T-50/PAK-FA.Read the bloomberg report.In any case,even during the last few years,with western sanction<Russia has won in the UKR and Syria militarily,plus has all its key weapon systems under development on target. Putin has seen to it that success is the only option. He sacked even famous scientists when they failed to deliver.

True,the FGFA /T-50 is well on its way into dev./future service and we missed the bus in jumping on at an early stage,wanting our own version (two-seat at first).From the latest statements out out by the DM,Ru officials, clarity of India's role in developing our variant has been sorted out. The deal will probably be sealed within the next few months. But the FGFA is meant for post 2020 service and it cannot supplant the intended operational role of large numbers of small lightweight fighters.

The crisis has arisen becos of poor forward planning by babudom/the MOD,with the air force also to admit to its share of the lame.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Rishi Verma » 02 Mar 2017 12:40

Lots of noisy discussion about "make in india" single engine fighter plane. People created a strawman that "make in india" is geared to "increase employment". So I checked the hosses mouth, [url]makeinindia.com[/url], and found no such goal.

What it says is..
Government of India and industry leaders together to debate and formulate an action plan for the next three years, aimed at raising the contribution of the manufacturing sector to 25% of the GDP by 2020.


In other words in a fast growth economy the modern industrial base will need to be more agile and adopt to change.

HAL manufacturing practices are obsolete and getting a successful fighter plane manufactured in India by a private player will cross germinate ideas, systems, manufacturing practices, and it will lower the costs in the long run.

If modi only wanted higher employment then he would have setup six sigma gutka manufacturing in all the major cities.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby GeorgeWelch » 02 Mar 2017 13:01

Rakesh wrote:I thought manufacturing was non-existant. We need F-16 to save us!


No one said that

Rakesh wrote:Doing screwdrivergiri of 100 aircraft is not going to change anything.


If handled properly, it can be much more than that and make a substantive difference

Rakesh wrote: If I am wrong in my assessment, then with all the screwdrivergiri we have been doing on the various planes and helicopters over all these decades should make India's aviation industry already mature.


Make in India is more sophisticated than just assembly, but I think the first step is to not let HAL anywhere near it. As you mentioned, they've had plenty of opportunities and haven't done anything with it.

Rakesh wrote:What in screwdrivergiri of the F-16 / Gripen is there, that we have not already learnt in the screwdrivergiri of the Su-30MKI? All three are fourth generation platforms, no?


Even ignoring that LM uses more sophisticated manufacturing processes than Russia, skills are perishable. They require constant use or else they disappear. Also working with LM opens up far more future possibilities than working with Sukhoi. If Sukhoi is impressed with your work, so what. If LM is impressed with your work, they have a huge range of products they might come back to you for.

The goal is to create up a network of suppliers and build your aerospace industrial base

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby NRao » 02 Mar 2017 18:10

Rishi Verma wrote:Lots of noisy discussion about "make in india" single engine fighter plane. People created a strawman that "make in india" is geared to "increase employment". So I checked the hosses mouth, [url]makeinindia.com[/url], and found no such goal.

What it says is..
Government of India and industry leaders together to debate and formulate an action plan for the next three years, aimed at raising the contribution of the manufacturing sector to 25% of the GDP by 2020.


In other words in a fast growth economy the modern industrial base will need to be more agile and adopt to change.


The alternative to humans in manufacturing is robots. So:
https://www.google.com/search?q=make+in ... e&ie=UTF-8

Modify is also trying to balance the economy.

HAL manufacturing practices are obsolete and getting a successful fighter plane manufactured in India by a private player will cross germinate ideas, systems, manufacturing practices, and it will lower the costs in the long run.


MII is for all sectors of the economy, thus 25% of the GDP.

MiG-21, Jaguar, Su-30 MKI. ALL have been or are being made in India. India has sent more than one team abroad to learn about manufacturing air crafts. There has been good input, but, yes, another different entity can only add to that knowledge base.

If modi only wanted higher employment then he would have setup six sigma gutka manufacturing in all the major cities.


That is for quality.

MII is for quantity.

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Re: 'Make in India' Single engined fighter

Postby Will » 02 Mar 2017 18:48

Arrghhhhh and now this forum is becoming a place to post ones political views? 7 per cent growth with crude prices what they are today is an achievement to boast about? :roll: I don't have any gr8 love for the congress but lets call a spade a spade. Let's keep this forum apolitical . India is our country and all of us here want the best for it. So lets keep the propaganda and politics out. Sad to say this forum is turning more into a political one then a defence one. People try to push their views and those who don't support it are considered anti-national. Lets not turn this into something like pakdefence. The ones in charge should clean up this forum.


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