Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 08:17

Talks are between russi and turkey and usa for firm demarcation line in north syria. Ready in a village tadef the fsa rats were bombed by ruaf when they clashed with saa.

At ground level lots of wailing and aoa by fsa to be allowed to attack manbij

Pics show us and perhaps french sf units in manbij in a show of support and no doubt a b52 just a phone call away if the fsa makes its move

Turks in frustration are shelling sdf held areas all over. Russia should give them wlr and grads to take out some turkish gun positions to send a message.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 08:19

Confirmed that peshmerga has sent a huge convoy into hasakah just as they did in the first phase offensive last year. I think usa lands some stuff into syrian airstrip but has depots of gear in erbil and kirkuk now being delivered

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 08:20

Isis proxy jaish ibn khalid al walid hammers the fsa in daraa..staging out of israeli occupied golan and jordan tri junction with syria

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:25

talks are on that the M4 highway will be new border between the groups. which means the FSA looters will need to pull back from whatever they captured yesterday - dotted lines

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:28

Al masdar

Nine villages were seized from ISIS on Monday as the Kurdish-led ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) reopened the Manbij front and pushed southwards along the Euphrates River.

With ISIS struggling to hold ground in the region, Kurdish forward units took control over the villages of Jurunli, Mahunah, Haymar al-Jays, Judayat al-Faras, Turaykiyat al-Humr, Qibab Kabir, Qibab Saghir, Sakhanah and Arudah with relative ease just hours after the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) also advanced nearby, thus cutting off the frontline territory between ISIS and the Turkish Armed Forces.

A military source informed Al-Masdar News that the SDF and Manbij Military Council are keen to take control of Al-Khafsa – this town has been fortified by ISIS militants after reaching a frontline stalemate in August 2016 following the liberation of Manbij city.

Remarkably, there are credible reports which indicate cooperation between the SDF and SAA; the latter provided artillery support for the advancing Kurdish forces.

The Russian Air Force was also operational in eastern Aleppo tonight, pulverizing a number of Islamic State gun positions.

Earlier today, SDF reinforcements and US military advisors arrived to Manbij. These forces are now spearheading the offensive. A new batch of armored vehicles and technicals were also provided to the SDF.
Al-Khafsa is strategically important as it supplies the provincial capital of Aleppo with water; recently, this facility was shut down by ISIS while the latter flooded some government-held villages in the region.

With heavy clashes ongoing on the near perimeter of Al-Khafsa, the town is expected to fall either overnight or tomorrow.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:29

southfront report:

Turkey will end its military operation in Syria after the town of Manbij is captured, Ilnur Cevik, adviser to Turkish President Recep Erdogan said on February 27 at a conference in Moscow.

“Ankara is trying to regain its presence there,” Cevik said, adding “As soon Manbij is captured, Turkey will stop its operation in Syria.”
Cevik said Ankara is setting up a 56-mile “buffer zone” into Manbij. According to Cevik, this move is explained by the fact that about 85 percent of Manbij and surrounding areas are controlled by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), described as a terrorist organization by Turkey.

Ankara sees the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) as a Syrian branch of the PKK.

At the same time, the so-called “Syrian Democratic Forces”, which allegedly control the area, are just a branding effort to hide the fact that the US supports the YPG in Syria.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:44

khan sof parked near manbij. with a flag too
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5sOeKTWgAI1jMf.jpg

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:45

Al khafsa can be seen in the map. when it falls soon(SDF is attacking it now), water supply to aleppo can be restored after a 2 month outage where people were managing from tankers and wells.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:46

the fertile maskanah plain is now open for the taking. I guess sdf and saa will not race but come to an agreement on who takes what and execute on that. saa will gnaw up deir hafr from north and south surely and head for Jirah AFB for a buildup prior to the final march south to Tabqah AFB

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:48

Iraqi Day iraqi_day 11h11 hours ago
#Iraqi forces are only 3KM away from completely cutting off #Mosul city from the villages west of the city.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:49

the 2nd map above is more accurate - mosul is about to be isolated from the 50km pocket west of it ending in Tal afar.

still a considerable area of countryside towns and hamlets to cleanse of daesh.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:51

location of jirah airbase
https://www.google.co.in/maps/place/Jir ... 37.9547596

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 09:54

mayadeen - al hamam - al bukamal is likely where ISIS will make its last stand before it goes into the darkness...
https://www.google.co.in/maps/@34.73266 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 12:17

https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article ... ase-raqqa/

One would need to check date of google earth imagery when this was done. Mostly these bases are empty..perhaps storage bunkers. Isis has no air force.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 12:17

We will how helpful the usaf is when these bases are besieged with isis inside. Time will tell

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 13:06

Singha wrote:mayadeen - al hamam - al bukamal is likely where ISIS will make its last stand before it goes into the darkness...
https://www.google.co.in/maps/@34.73266 ... a=!3m1!1e3

hunkering down. men and vehicles were also sent from raqqa to border of deir azzor province to fight the SDF there.

al masdar
The Albu Hayat Bridge in western Anbar province was destroyed by ISIS, a local source told Al-Sumaria News on Monday.

ISIS are known to destroy bridges and any other pieces of infrastructure that could assist Iraqi operations against the terrorist group.

“ISIS detonated the Albu Hayat Bridge in the al-Waleed vicinity of Rutba District, near al-Waleed port on the borders with Syria,” a source who spoke on anonymity said on Monday.

“ISIS blew up the bridge using high explosives, causing it to collapse,” the source added.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 28 Feb 2017 14:17

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/pentagon ... house.html

Jai Hind.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 15:24

the military part will be relatively easy. but lasting peace will come in syria only if following points are resolved
- is Idlib going to be a permanent al-qaeda caliphate as today? if not, will all help in evicting the jihadis or will be left to SAA+russia?
- what kind of lasting settlement will be there between assad and the kurds? - these are are only two permanent residents of syria!! the rest - turkey, gcc, isis, usa, russia are all intruders.
- is turkey going to be allowed to gobble up the enclave it has captured in north syria and started repopulating with flock of uighurs and fsa bandits as a "nuova turkey" ?
- is assad going to remain in power and will sanctions be lifted and aid given?
- is kurdistan in iraq going to be a country? what happens in iraq will drive the aspirations of syrian kurds.
- what is the fate of turkey ? a nuova TSP under Gen zia or peace agreement with PKK or a more widespread civil war and pogrom against kurds. will russia support PKK via armenia?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 15:28

failure to resolve these questions after the inevitable crushing of ISIS(crushing isis is the only thing all players now agree on), will lead to years and years of low scale civil war , suicide attacks, atrocities, flight of qualified people and capital and lead to another state failure in a decade or so.

from indian pov, having the shia and sunni crescents in a balance is beneficial as we trade with both. we can help syria rebuild in various sectors like construction, medicine, education, transport and agriculture.

by autumn this year ISIS should be on its last breaths and by winter its flame will be put out.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 15:50

one more vbied killed
https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/statu ... 0297583618

tal afar seems like the global HQ of vbied industry looking at the 100s that come charging out

there is another video of a pickup mounted 75mm RCL like we used to have on jongas taking out a small car that had been protected by a isis bulldozer on the way in and which peels off and disappears before the final run...but the RCL nails it flat.
https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/statu ... 2093222913

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 28 Feb 2017 15:53

failure to resolve these questions after the inevitable crushing of ISIS(crushing isis is the only thing all players now agree on), will lead to years and years of low scale civil war , suicide attacks, atrocities, flight of qualified people and capital and lead to another state failure in a decade or so.

^+1

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 28 Feb 2017 16:00

Khan knows how to win the war and how to lose the peace. They proved in Afghan and Iraq wars. Neo-Cons will try to ensure that Russia and Assad will not have any future in Syria. That is the significant immediate threat to peace efforts.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 28 Feb 2017 21:02

(crushing isis is the only thing all players now agree on)

Well, I doubt that is Erdogan`s goal. It is more likely that he wants the kurds subdued.
Turkey is comfortable with ISIS control of Tal Afar but has warned against PMU taking it.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Feb 2017 21:09

Yes turkey is odd man out. But i consider them semi isis and not up to anything good in syria.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 Mar 2017 00:30

Russia and China have vetoed a UN resolution to impose sanctions on Syria over the alleged use of chemical weapons.
It is the seventh time Russia has vetoed a UN Security Council resolution to protect the Syrian government.
China has also vetoed six security council resolutions on Syria since the civil war began in 2011.
Syria agreed to destroy its chemical weapons in 2013 under an agreement negotiated between Russia and the US.
The Syrian government has previously denied carrying out chemical attacks.
However, investigations by the UN and international chemical weapons watchdog have found that Syrian government forces carried out three chemical weapons attacks in 2014 and 2015.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 08:35

Al masdar.

Meanwhile, Turkish-backed forces have attacked the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces-held towns and captured Kiridyah and Jablat Al-Hamra in south-west Manbij countryside from the militia.

Military sources in speaking with Al-Masdar News said that despite Turkish-led forces claiming that they captured Sukariyah Kabirah and Sukariyah Saghirahin, this is not true and the two towns are largely contested and empty from both sides.

Today the Syrian Army shelled turkish-led forces who tried to enter these towns, forcing them to retreat.

Both towns remain empty from the two competing armies.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 08:39

Uk volunteer in ypj

Doloroso Retweeted
9h
Kimmie Taylor‏ @kimmieslife
So... ISIS keeps running away. None left by the time we get to the villages. LOL.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 08:40

Palmyra seems to be halfway surrounded from the west. East is open. Hopefully a large troop of daesh can be trapped and baygon sprayed there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 11:27

Haidar Sumeri‏ @IraqiSecurity 14h14 hours ago
More
IMPORTANT:
A deal has been struck between #Iraq & #Syria for further Iraqi air raids inside Syrian territory. Damascus will provide intel.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 11:29

twitter sickulars have raised a howl about relatively late teens YPJ women seen in US centcom tweet about being ready for a fight.

all quiet now that lots of early teen young boys pics used as FSA cannon fodder in EphShield have been published. i think they were used to pad numbers and draw the salary from turkish govt which the team leads pocketed. some reports of bacchabaazi too among the sultant murad type bandits - old turko-afghan traditions

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 01 Mar 2017 12:59

How to contain Turkey? If it continues misadventures in Sy. Options are
Sy & Turk talk it out . Ru acts as buffer. Else Sy army stretched to limits will have to open another front to tackle Turk army.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 13:17

one way to keep hands clean for now would be if assad gives YPG a yellow corridor bordering the FSA badlands near Al-bab. that would mean SAA does not share any direct border with turkey except in Latakia mountains for now. tigers & repub guard can then safely turn south with yellow corridor guarding their north flank and fall upon deir hafer, jirah and maskanah.

then he kit them up with all the goodies that Unkil is loathe to grant - like metis and kornets, night vision, BPJs, heavy artillery, WLRs , as much ammo as they want , drones , intel sharing and let them respond once turkey starts the inevitable shelling or the FSA bandits start their usual stunts. while YPG might not be able to take the fight into turkey they can make life hell by (a) moral and diplomatic support to the PKK (allegedly manbij is their den) (b) going after the FSA occupation force and any regular turks lurking around(a base is being started in jabal aqil @ al bab and azaz-mare is another den of the turkoman militias)

and russia extends its SAM umbrella over this yellow belt to keep the F-solahs out.

between assad and the turks I would imagine the YPG would prefer assad, while he is no softie , I think he not carried out brutal saddam type atrocities on the kurds (or maybe his father did but thats long ago). their interests converge vs ISIS and vs Turkey.

hotheads in the YPG might say go it alone in rojava but how ? they lack a seacoast and are surrounded by powerful frenemies and enemies in all sides. it could get tough. how long will the US feed and clothe them? ultimately they are owners of the shared syrian destiny and must find a way to live together. the kurds in north, the coastal people and the desert arabs (raqqa and deir azzor) seem to form 3 different cultures. but cultures can live together and prosper - india is a great example. the homogenous state is a thing of past - mongrels are more survivable and agile. israel survives on unkils largesse.

assad will need to spread around more of the butter and loot from his coastal supporters to further inland. arrive at revenue sharing for oil and gas in proportion of population, area, needs of development. the coastal cities are well developed and no less than any Med rim city in greece or spain but the desert ones like raqqa and deir azzor are far far behind and could use investment the way damascus and aleppo gets. farming will need to be revived.
education bootstrapped again. lakhs of young men a precious resource have been killed - it will take another 25 years (1 gen) to absorb this loss of reproductive age males and grow again.

step motherly treatment and punishing with punitive measures will bring in another civil war.

so I think assad and YPG need to put aside their maximalist demands and arrive at a compromise if they want to survive. looking to barzani is probably wrong direction - barzani is barzani's friend only and has cordial terms with the turks, allowing them to keep a illegal base in bashiqa NW of mosul for "training turkoman militias"

war and lashing out is the easy part. building a lasting peace from the ruins of war is very tough. EU will play the spoiler as usual, refusing any aid, blocking aid, keeping sanctions...

an opportunity for chindia I feel to increase their mindshare and footprint in the region once the last shell is fired

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 13:29

turkey is btw speedily building a huge concrete wall along the border. latest reports say 200 out of 500 km is already completed from prefab concrete sections bolted together and topped with a spiral of barbed wire.

perhaps its the nordwall in GOT and the EphShield bubble outside the wall is to be staffed with expendable cannon fodder to act as a buffer / interdict PKK / spies / spotters before any kurds hits the wall.

kurds have a lot of relatives across the border too.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 13:59

Haidar Sumeri‏ @IraqiSecurity 16h16 hours ago
We'll definitely see #Iraq's Air Force strike Da'ish in Albu Kamal and Deir Ezzour. Will be interesting to see if we hit them in Palmyra.

Haidar Sumeri‏ @IraqiSecurity 16h16 hours ago
#Iraq will continue bombing Da'ish inside #Syria until the terror org. is finished. An Iraqi-Syrian war room is being established

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 17:03

khan signaling turkey from manbij to stay clear

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 17:03

iraqis have cut the road from mosul to tal afar

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Mar 2017 17:19

IndraD wrote:Russia and China have vetoed a UN resolution to impose sanctions on Syria over the alleged use of chemical weapons.
It is the seventh time Russia has vetoed a UN Security Council resolution to protect the Syrian government.
China has also vetoed six security council resolutions on Syria since the civil war began in 2011.
Syria agreed to destroy its chemical weapons in 2013 under an agreement negotiated between Russia and the US.
The Syrian government has previously denied carrying out chemical attacks.
However, investigations by the UN and international chemical weapons watchdog have found that Syrian government forces carried out three chemical weapons attacks in 2014 and 2015.

I think who ever used Chemical Weapon it was Chlorine and technically its not banned under CWC

I dont think Russia and China will allow West to get a free pass after Libya UN Voting fiasco where West convinced both that UN voting is only to deal with terrorist and used NFZ to kick out and kill Gaddaffi. A Veto is Guranteed in Syria by Russia and China

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 17:52

Just today a 100kg chlorine drum car bomb was defused by iraqis in mosul.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 01 Mar 2017 19:18

Syria needs to keep the pressure up on Daesh till Iraqi clean up Mosul. After Mosul it will be turkey shoot in Syria, as Shia Militia will move into Syria. Thereafter the Shia Crescent along with Russia may give some love to Saudis, Israelis, Jordan etc.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Mar 2017 19:23

My popcorn and beer is all kept aside for when pmu enters syria via al qaim hopefully...