Perspectives on the global economic changes

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 04 May 2017 21:26

NRE account will let you do that.

Row 2 in the image below:

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 09 May 2017 08:23

Libertarian views on taxes and govt are just the opposite.

If govt had a monopoly on creating computer chips, we'd still be stuck with computers the size of rooms.

Mostly politicians rob the productive citizenry via tax to "create jobs" to get themselves elected.

Its a total lie that govt does anything more efficiently than the private sector can - be it building roads, schools or anything else.

Were it not so, govt would be surviving and expanding off the profit it creates from all the above - yet it always has to tax the citizenry (often more and more) to be solvent.

There is no price feedback mechanism for govt. It will piss away a hoard of wealth created by the productive workers of society even while claiming it is advancing development. The country is worse off as a result of it.

The great pot of gold that's trawled in as tax from the productive economy also attracts a ton of bankster and gangsters into govt. They bribe and corrupt in every way imaginable the political class so they can get their hands on the pot.

America's founding fathers got it right. Sound money and limited govt is the best corruption prevention strategy.

What grows the economy is savings and entrepreneurship, not bigger govt and more taxes.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 May 2017 13:23

Thanks shyam

Jeff Gundlach CNBC Sohn Conference Full Interview

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 16 May 2017 13:14

Chinese Bond Yield Inverts

China’s $1.7 trillion government-bond market is exhibiting a new sign of stress: The yield on longer-term debt has fallen below that on shorter-term debt—an anomaly that some traders are blaming on Beijing’s efforts to reduce financial risk.

Early on Thursday, the five-year yield /quotes/zigman/15861749/realtime BX:AMBMKRM-05Y -0.59% rose to 3.71%, breaking above the 10-year yield /quotes/zigman/15861751/realtime BX:AMBMKRM-10Y +0.15% for the first time since records began—even though the latter, at 3.68%, was near a 25-month high. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.

Such a “yield-curve inversion” defies normal market logic that bonds requiring a longer commitment should compensate investors with a higher return. It usually reflects investor pessimism about a country’s long-term growth and inflation prospects. When the U.S. Treasury /quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime BX:TMUBMUSD10Y -0.07% yield curve inverted in 2006 and 2007, most analysts cited Asian central banks’ heavy buying of longer-dated U.S. government debt.

Dear Chinese, Good luck with trying to get even one OBOR project off the ground.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 May 2017 14:55

India's Working With World Gold Council to Create a Spot Exchange

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-exchange

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 May 2017 15:05

On Chinese bonds May be its good for investors who wants higher returns in Short Term Bonds , Likely some one is deliberately engineering it to discourage investors in buying long term bonds

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 16 May 2017 19:33

No Austin. That is not how it works.

The central bank is in the control of the shorter end of the bond curve through setting rates, repo market, increased bond auctions etc. The market controls the longer end by demading more yield.. The central banks try to ensure the short term rates are lower than long term rates. Thus the curve is upwards from today into the future. This permits long term projects gestation and fruition which the govt hopes can be funded by these bond inflows.

Short term rates are expected to rise and bonds are giving a heads up. Though futures market are the best way to understand which way the wind is blowing, few other pointers would be rising LIBOR, shortening TED spread, OIS contract open interest etc.

The curve has been close to flat for a long time. Now its inverted i.e shorter rates higher, longer rates lower.

Only way to invert it is raise rates beyond real inflation. Can Chinese do that? As long as they are pegged to dollar, they cant. OBOR will be screwed.

The HK$ is rising fast against US$. Where goes HK$, there goes CNY.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 May 2017 19:59

If Yuan is rising fast against USD which means it is getting stronger then it would be bad for Chinese exports but good for Chinese Customer with greater purchasing power , Isnt that what Trump is demanding from the Chinese ?

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 16 May 2017 20:25

Unintended consequences of QE.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 18 May 2017 07:55

Austin wrote:India's Working With World Gold Council to Create a Spot Exchange

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-exchange

Who's interests does the World Gold Council represent?

More importantly, will they be suggesting the sale of worthless paper promises of gold or will actual physical gold change hands in the exchange.

If its the former, its a disaster waiting to happen.

India should have its own version of "Good Delivery Bars" assayed and stamped with serial numbers on the exchange. That way the ownership and the physical metal itself can be tracked as parties buy/sell on the exchange.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 20 May 2017 21:49

And that will achieve what exactly? Nation states do not need gold that much. We small people need it to establish our own credibility.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 21 May 2017 06:00

It promotes price discovery as opposed to some dude sitting in London setting prices Libor style.

If nation states do not need gold that much, why are their central banks hanging on to 35000 tons of it.

Considering all the gold ever mined in the world's history is a mere 170,000 tons, they are holding an astonishing percentage of something they "do not need that much".

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 21 May 2017 06:08

The deal in gold futures at COMEX is that the it can settled in cash. Make them settle in physical gold, you will see price of gold changing in unexpected ways.

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 22 May 2017 05:28

Its been said that like the US, it is not in India's interest to allow the price of gold to move freely.
We spend vast amount of money importing a metal that mostly sits in the vaults of the people under lock & key.
We do not control the supply of gold as we are not producers of gold.
Nor are we even price fixers of the metal despite being the largest importer of the metal for years.

But all this ignores one thing -

We do not control the supply of the world's reserve fiat currency (USD) either.
Nor do we have any significant control of future global fiat currencies like the IMF SDR.
Others are dictating what and how much our daily grind is worth.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 23 May 2017 13:08

Why The Chinese Yuan Won't Be The World's Reserve Currency

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 23 May 2017 13:33

shyam wrote:The deal in gold futures at COMEX is that the it can settled in cash. Make them settle in physical gold, you will see price of gold changing in unexpected ways.

They are trying that at the Shaghai gold exchange. But the dollar settlement hangover does not want to go.

London does not set the price anymore through LBMA. The price discovery as you correctly pointed is at the moment set by COMEX. The Commitment of traders report that COMEX publishes is a good indication of where the commercials are thinking where the gold price will go to.

Neshant,
Are you being intentionally obtuse? Gold is not really needed at the supra national level. Unless your pet theory of gold standard materialises. Newsflash- there will never be a gold standard. EVER. It was tried before and it was reneged on.

When US closed the gold window, they owed the rest of the world their gold at Fort Knox at $42.22/oz. Do you really think another gold standard will arise until that settlement from 1971 is done? If you do, then you are living in a 'La La Land'.

So what is the need for nations to hold gold?

A nation which wants to weaken its currency will reduce the gold in circulation within its currency zone. If they want to strengthen it, they will increase the gold circulation. If more gold circulates, the people who hold currency will think- there is gold circulating- let me use up some of my fiat and buy gold- automatically decreasing the currency in circulation. When the currency becomes very strong- the government will use some currency to buy the gold on the open market- thus decreasing the gold in circulation and ALSO increasing the fiat in circulation.

Now in this arrangement, where do you think the supra-national gold settlement comes in?

Until last year I used to believe the goverments will as per Bretton woods send gold via palates loaded on airplanes from one area to another to settle their trade imbalances.

How naive I was!

Oil is what makes our world go round and round. And all the gold in the world will needed to buy every last bit of oil to keep economy functional.

And you do not need a lot of gold. You need a little bit of gold but at a high enough price.

What you do need is a vibrant economy where manufacturing and consumption are both be necessary for economic survival. Only manufacturing like Chinese do OR only consumption like the west does is not the future.

Get it? Got it!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 May 2017 12:04

China criticized Moody's decision to downgrade its credit rating

The Chinese Ministry of Finance criticized the decision of Moody's rating agency to lower China's long-term rating in national and foreign currency from Aa3 to A1 and change its outlook from negative to stable.

"Moody's decision to downgrade China's sovereign credit rating was made on the basis of an inappropriate method of" procyclicality, "the statement said on the agency's website said.

According to the Chinese Ministry of Finance, Moody's in its forecast overestimated the difficulties faced by China's economy and underestimated the measures to deepen the structural reform of the supply and the expansion of aggregate demand that the Chinese government is taking.

Earlier, Moody's said that this decision reflects the agency's expectation that in the coming years, China's financial opportunities will somewhat decrease, and the overall debt in the economy will continue to increase as growth slows.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 24 May 2017 18:44

China-U.S. Trade Relations: Better Than You Think

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 May 2017 22:47

Saudi Finance Minister: “I Wouldn't Care If The Oil Price Is Zero"

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/S ... -Zero.html

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 May 2017 22:48

By 2030 they will make sufficient money exporting Sunni Wahabism and Terrorism so they wont worry even if Oil Price is Zero , Call it Non-Oil Exports !

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Jun 2017 10:28

Jim Rickards best interview of 2017 - The Daily Reckoning - Road to Ruin

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 02 Jun 2017 20:32

Austin wrote:Jim Rickards best interview of 2017 - The Daily Reckoning - Road to Ruin

Watch this video and see the patterns of Modi's decision leading to and after demonetisation. And you will understand what is being planned is not only for US, it is for India as well.

shyam · Post by **shyam** » 04 Jun 2017 05:53

For some reason, I don't trust this guy. First of all he is coming from culinary institute. Second he reveals the name of all big people he met. If he reveals their names, they will stop meeting him. I am not saying he is lying, but dal meh kuch kaala hai..

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 04 Jun 2017 12:28

shyam wrote:For some reason, I don't trust this guy. First of all he is coming from culinary institute. Second he reveals the name of all big people he met. If he reveals their names, they will stop meeting him. I am not saying he is lying, but dal meh kuch kaala hai..

If he doesnt revel names then guys would say he is bluffing , works both ways and both has it own set of risk.

I follow his twitter and he mentioned he met tim recently and some time back ben , he frequently updates his twitter. https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 06 Jun 2017 16:44

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/stat ... 7148409857

Each year @RonStoeferle & @MarkValek produced the definitive gold analysis read by millions. Find it here:
http://bit.ly/2rfiJfI

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 15 Jun 2017 20:50

Steven Bregman’s Grant’s Fall 2016 Presentation on the ETF Divide

Watch it while you can. And if thou gaze long into an abyss, the abyss will also gaze into thee....

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Jun 2017 14:40

Stockman Warns: S&P 500 Is Due for a Massive Crash Any Day

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 19 Jun 2017 01:20

Austin wrote:

Stockman Warns: S&P 500 Is Due for a Massive Crash Any Day

Noob question. What event can trigger a massive crash? how massive would the the "massive"..and how long will it last...

Can anyone explain how 2000 dot com crash was? what triggered it and how fast and massive was it? Just for comparison..

If one listens to the dooms day predictors and zerohedge quoting posters here we are on verge of a crash anyday now since 2014. whats happening is exactly opposite..

All this money that has printed and forced into the economy is real..what if all this is the new normal...why can't it be?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Jun 2017 16:52

CalvinH wrote:All this money that has printed and forced into the economy is real..what if all this is the new normal...why can't it be?

Probably because the Debt has outclass growth , Even if they pump money they are barely growing at an average of 2 % but debt has risen exponentially , Most of the money is pumped into stock market and not the real sector of economy which was meant to benefit few at the expense of most.

If this can be called new normal , May be Time Will Tell

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 30 Jun 2017 08:03

World Bank launches 'pandemic bond' to tackle major outbreaks

The World Bank has launched a "pandemic bond" to support an emergency financing facility intended to release money quickly to fight a major health crisis like the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

The catastrophe bond, which will pay out depending on the size of the outbreak, its growth rate and the number of countries affected, is the first of its kind for epidemics. It should mean money is disbursed much faster than during West Africa's Ebola crisis.
...

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Jun 2017 12:48

The Russian Economy 2014 – 2016, the Years of Sanctions Warfare

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Jul 2017 19:50

[ Alan Greenspan ] -- Economy entering very tough period of stagflation

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 09 Jul 2017 21:18

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Jul 2017 03:11

Austin I see you follow Rickards. Dont you find his name dropping a bit nauseating? Also he consistently never posts any data. Only anecdotal observations. Compare it to Stockman who posts oddles of data.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Jul 2017 03:22

A couple of interesting charts;

https://www.diigo.com/item/image/5fye0/1dh3

https://www.diigo.com/item/image/5fye0/n594

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 10 Jul 2017 03:42

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/g ... edictions/

India going to be the economic pole for the next decade. Significant shift.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 10 Jul 2017 03:45

On the reasons for nationalism.... it is another Western construct. IMVO. People across civilizations have felt a sense of 'oneness' with their group. Europe never had a large civilization like Indian or Chinese. So they can never understand what brings people close together. They had Greek civilization which was relatively smaller. And then they had Roman Empire.

All their definitions and frameworks do not hold good in the Eastern part of the World.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Jul 2017 13:21

Excellent resource SwamyG ji.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Jul 2017 13:38

Jim Rickards‏ @JamesGRickards

When experts say the Phillips Curve has "flattened" that's a pseudo-expert way of saying there is no such thing as a Phillips Curve.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Jul 2017 10:21

David Stockman‏ @DA_Stockman https://twitter.com/DA_Stockman

Donald Trump’s Very Own Big, Fat, Ugly Bubble

Chart of the Day: The Doomsday Machine Cometh

The State of The Housing Bubble Revealed in New Home Sales Data

Chart of the Day: Social Benefits Share Of Disposable Income Going Parabolic