Bombing Bombay? - Study of n-holocaust

Ramanujan · Post by **Ramanujan** » 02 Jul 2000 22:45

I received this link from one of my friends, it sheds light on the aftermath of a nuclear bombing, thought it would be informative.
And I am not sure if this is ever posted.

Bombing Bombay? - Study of n-holocaust by M.V. Ramana
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/india/target/primer/index.html

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 02 Jul 2000 23:29

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>According to the census, the literacy rate is only 72%. Thus, there will be a significant number of people who may not be in a position to read any publications that may be available before or after the attack on emergency measures. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>I don't agree that this particular issue is relevant. Emergency evacuations or preparations are invariably done by word of mouth, not by sending reports for people to read. In an emergency, as a civilian trying to survive or help others, I'd much rather have a few street-kids on my team than a bunch of PhDs or MDs.Also, the estimate of 80K to 120K fatalities seems rather low. If there's a political meeting or other reason for a procession going on, the number of people caught outdoors in the first shockwave and intense line-of-sight radiation will be much larger.This article seems to say that the effect of a nuke on Mumbai will be no worse than that of a conventional bombing with about 10 1000lb bombs + a communal riot. Suddenly I am beginning to look at the threat of nuclear war in a totally different way: if the choice is between losing Kashmir (sure to trigger nationwide communal riots with, say, 250,000 dead ) or a war where TSP is destroyed permanently, with the risk of 1 or 2 nukes on major Indian cities (240,000 dead), I might be tempted to choose war if I believed this low estimate.

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 02 Jul 2000 23:52

Narayanan: There was a thread on Civil Defence as Deterrence some time back. Combine the estimates of death caused by a nuke on Bombay, and figure how much of htat can be reduced by effective Civil Defence, then wonder what impact that will have on political will to act.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 03 Jul 2000 19:19

That casualities estimate is very low. If a nuke falls on/in the near vicinity of Dharavi, then close to a million fatalities are guaranteed (because of the population density in that area).According to a friend who worked on a disaster management plan for Maharashtra (headquartered in Bombay), the plan is primarily geared towards acts of god - earthquakes, cyclones, floods and man made disasters like industrial and chemical accidents, road accidents etc. They were specifically asked not to work on the nuclear leaks part (told that everything was safe) and working on a disaster management plan for nuclear attacks was not part of their brief. I don't know how that disaster management plan will hold up to a nuclear attack. The plan is pretty comprehensive, BTW.Seeing that Bombay works Ram-bharose (for lack of a better word, though this term closely describes the situation) no disaster management plan for a nuclear attack will be very effective, IMHO of course. That, of course, doesn't mean that we shouldn't attempt one, just that we cannot expect it to be very effective.In a major riot, the hospitals are overwhelmed, you can imagine the response of hospitals in the face of massive casualities, with the added fact that medical facilities will themselves be affected.The bottom line is that we can expect lots of casualities.

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 03 Jul 2000 20:09

Shiv: What are your comments regarding this, in the light of your recent research into coping with WMD attacks?

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 03 Jul 2000 20:16

The point I was trying to make is that the study, while it may be quantatively precise, is dangerously flawed for several reasons:1. If TSP (or PRC) were to send missiles or bombers for a nuclear attack on Mumbai, it is almost inevitable that this is part of a Doomsday attack. Indian, or even international, retaliation is a near-certainty. So the weapons used for such a strike will not be "Hiroshima-sized" pygmies, but the most powerful fission or even thermonuclear warheads available. 1 megaton would have been a more realistic estimate. 2. The death toll will not be dominated by the toll in the first blast, in the scenario painted in the article. Disaster relief will be near-absent for at least a week following such an attack. Even after that, water supplies will be contaminated. Medical supplies will be negligible. Its good to hear that Maharashtra has a disaster-relief plan; its safe to bet that when they open the containers of relief supplies and medicines, they will find thank-you notes from the thieves instead. 3. For Reason #1, the greatest relevance of this study (a poorly-chosen target; low-yield, dirty, fission-type weapon of 1940s vintage design) is to a terrorist attack: this is indeed a great danger. In this case, the conclusion of the study about banning nuclear weapons is irrelevant. To paraphrase the National Rifle Ass*****, :"When nukes are outlawed, only outlaws will have nukes". For these three reasons, the study is dangerous because, as I pointed out, it would mislead decision-makers to choose the option of all-out war, far too easily. Its concluding sentence is merely a "Motherhood-and-apple-pie" statement, which is the result of the author not thinking broadly enough about the implications of his results. Its the kind of conclusion developed before the data are in. Another example of why "peer-reviewed journal publications" are not nearly as "peer-reviewed" as BRF posts. They should have asked me.

[This message has been edited by narayanan (edited 03-07-2000).]

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 03 Jul 2000 20:37

Narayanan: Since the destruction afforded by a nuclear weapon roughly scales with the 2/3 power, it is not necessary that a Doomsday attack will be with a 1MT weapon. Probably more likely with a 200kT weapon.If it is Pakistani in origin, it is much more likely to be even smaller (20-50kT).IF we assume 200kT, then the death and destruction predicted would have to be multiplied by 5x to get a better feel for what would happen.The other issue is that an attack on a city will not leave "large areas" in ruins. For instance, 200kT over Bombay would probably leave an area of 20 miles in diameter affected (800 sq. km) by radiation (much smaller for an airburst), fire and blast. Granted this is where 40% of our industrial output is centered, but hardly "turn to glass" type of scenario.[This message has been edited by Calvin (edited 03-07-2000).]

Sukumar · Post by **Sukumar** » 03 Jul 2000 20:45

What really worries me is that - in a fit of insanity there is a nuclear exchange leaving the major cities on either side in ruins, radioactivity infesting the whole country side, millions dead and dying and infrastructure wholly devastated in two countries that dont have much to start with.The remaining radioactivity would render many large areas uninhabitable for a long time. Imagine the disease, pain and suffering for millions. Both countries would slip back by a 100 years or more.And then, the so called P-5 would rub their hands in glee and say - "see we told you not to go nuclear....bla bla". Guess who would stand to gain the most - our Chinese bhais of course.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Jul 2000 21:46

"Shiv: What are your comments regarding this"What are my comments!!??Wow - this is the single best Indian reference I have come across yet. It is easy to beat about the bush on this subject and write a general and non-commital outline. Justice cannot be done to the subject until real facts are considered. This is a very useful reference - and actually serves as a great starting point - especially page 3. The first two pages have info that is readily available.

Ramanujan · Post by **Ramanujan** » 03 Jul 2000 22:32

Do we have a blue print for crisis management during a n-attack, we were fast in evolving a number for the bombs we need to stock pile, but we are draging our feet when it comes to preparedness for a possible attack, how are we going to protect ourselves, i feel GOI gives least importance to this important matter.Sometime back on discovery channel for the first time they showed a heavily fortified bunker with huge rooms underneath a very famous hotel to accomodate all of senators and congressmen for atleast 2-3 months if i am right,do we have an arrangement to take care of our top leaders?[This message has been edited by ramanujan (edited 03-07-2000).]

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 03 Jul 2000 23:55

Too late to ask this, shoot-first-ask-questions-later, etc., but is the author our BRF contributor Ramana, by any chance?

[This message has been edited by narayanan (edited 05-07-2000).]

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 05 Jul 2000 20:12

This is not "our" Ramana. MVR is a peacenik and is currently also associated with MIND, IIRC.In any case, here is a link on surviving nuclear war. Think any of the recommendations are applicable to ND/Bombay/Ahmedabad? <A HREF="http://oism.org/nwss/s73p904.htm" TARGET=_blank>http://oism.org/nwss/s73p904.htm</A> <BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>... I have found that many people at first see no sense in talking about details of survival skills. Those who hold exaggerated beliefs about the dangers from nuclear weapons must first be convinced that nuclear war would not inevitably be the end of them and everything worthwhile. Only after they have begun to question the truth of these myths do they become interested, under normal peacetime conditions, in acquiring nuclear war survival skills. Therefore, before giving detailed instructions for making and using survival equipment, we will examine the most harmful of the myths about nuclear war dangers, along with some of the grim facts.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Jul 2000 22:14

No I am not this Ramana. I have no problems with peaceniks but have with those who make the country vulnerable to the barbarians under the guise of peace. Besides this chap is similar to Kampani who make a living in the West trying to persuade India to give up to please their grant givers. He has no interest in India or its interests. He wants to continue his grant. I dont understand the praise for this piece. The motive is to scare the public after the tests so deployment could be halted. The idea is to sy the GOI doesnt quit understand what it has done by the tests. Its part of the cap, rollback game. Who is the member who posted this crap again? Newbies thi sis not the usenet where you can post any old junk and watch the fun.

Ramanujan · Post by **Ramanujan** » 05 Jul 2000 22:36

With due respects ramana, I am not an enthusiast in posting new topics in the first place for I have some other serious business to look after and secondly I am not interested in watching people to wreck their brains on already discussed topic, as I have already mentioned I was not sure if the topic was ever discussed and it was upto the adminstrators to close the topic if they feel its not appropriate in anyways. And lastly i don't like your authoritative tone to let not people express what they feel like for this is not crap, it is informative for people who really don't know about the aftermath of n-holocaust. [This message has been edited by ramanujan (edited 05-07-2000).]

Sagar · Post by **Sagar** » 06 Jul 2000 00:40

Ramanujam,The topic was debated thoroughly after the 98 tests. Ofcourse there is no harm in debating it again. The effect of such pieces were quite different from what was anticipated. When Outlook magazine (once a shrill opponent of the tests) asked a Bombay resident if she supported the tests she said that she did given the fact that Bombay may be staring at a speeding Ghauri missile armed with a nuclear weapon.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 06 Jul 2000 01:26

If anybody has noticed, none of the peaceniks from P-5 or non P-5 have any kind of studies of a nuclear blast on any other city in their country published ( in a open literature atleast). This happens only in India where these guys think that they can prey on the insecurities of illiterate people or uninformed people. If they are interested in total world nuclear disarmament let them do it for all the major cities in the world and start publishing it everywhere. The basic presumptions is that the opinion of the majority in India is maliable to their liking by withholding important information and creating fear psycosis.

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 06 Jul 2000 01:51

It is somewhat distressing to see members jump on MVRamana's article and questioning his credentials. The gist of what he writes is based on solid scientific evidence and he backs up his claims well.For those that think that there are no studies on nuclear attacks on P5, think again. There are many such studies that are available in the open literature if you are inclined to read them. Merely closing our eyes, does not make it turn to night.

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 06 Jul 2000 07:26

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:<HR>Merely closing our eyes, does not make it turn to night.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Profound, Calvin. On the other hand, descending into the subterranean Official Fallout Shelter where I live in the daytime, near Ground Zero of Atlanta, and forgetting to turn on the lights, does turn day into night. Unless one bumps one's head on any of various obstacles, in which case the stars come out too. Sorry to have provoked ramana. I was seriously worried, so I had to ask. Now, as I pointed out, the proper conclusions to be drawn from that article are that (a) the effects of a Paki nuke attack on Mumbai are less than those of a nationwide riot caused by loss of Kashmir, and (b) therefore, India should not worry about the Paki threat of nuclear war in future debates on whether to strike across the LOC with massive force. Since Calvin confirmed that there is no great threat of a 1Megaton strike, or even a 200kT strike, the Pakis will just have to back down. An Indian counter-strike, on the other hand, will use thermonuclear weapons, and its 'bye 'bye to all of TSP's big centers. Calvin is right, nuke attack effects on, say, Atlanta are well-analyzed. This is why I try to stay close to Ground Zero (actually one of several Grounds Zero). There are also several books on nuke attacks on Washington DC, New York, Denver etc. By any of these comparisons, MVR's estimates of deaths in Mumbai appear to be quite low, as technically defensible his calculation formulae may be.

Kaushal · Post by **Kaushal** » 06 Jul 2000 07:34

I am not particularly amused that my post was deleted for reasons very mysterious to me. In my post i had remarked that in my recollection this had already been posted (no harm in posting it again) and that I would be astonished that anybody would be really surprised at the conclusions of the report. This is the purpose of deterrence to sow the seeds of terror in the minds of the opponent. Deterrence is like blackmail, once you make good your threat it is of no value whatsoever.Kaushal[This message has been edited by Kaushal (edited 05-07-2000).]

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Jul 2000 08:01

Hey Hey Hey Hey - don't shoot me - I'm only the piano player.Whatever the reason for the writer of the article to have decided to write about it - I must say that he has spent a few minutes or hours looking at some local Indian data - which is a good staring point. Of course, and major part of his information (2 of 3 pages) is READILY available on the net - but that one page is new.I think that there are going to be a lot of differences in the effect of a nuke on an Indian city as compared to the scenarios played out in the US literature I have read and there are many reasons for this.First, US scenarios always looked at the effect of hundreds of kiloton/megaton bombs hitting targets in the US - which is what they felt they faced in the cold war. In the Indian scenario we are currently at risk of (IMHO) a dozen or less single or two digit kiloton range bombs over a population that will not or cannot prepare for nuclear war in the sense that some Americans prepared for such an eventuality.Once again - recalling the "Strategy" article posted by John Smith - very very interesting if gory and bestial, hypothetical scenarios can be envisaged.

Varun Shekhar · Post by **Varun Shekhar** » 06 Jul 2000 08:02

M.V Ramana has also been in the forefront of those questioning the "claims" of DAE/BARC regarding yields of nuclear tests,including the sub-kiloton ones.But,as has been shown in BR and elsewhere,the scientists' data are looking more accurate. What would be the motive of a peacenik to harangue Indian scientists about seismic figures? Anti-nuclear activists should be concentrating on one thing: global disarmament,not just India-disarmament.I am reminded of the snide remarks made by Eric Arnett (of SIPRI) of the Prithvi missile. SIPRI should be attacking _everyone's_ missiles, regardless of the alleged quality of the product.

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 06 Jul 2000 08:58

I read this book about "limited nuclear war" between the US and USSR (and BTW large parts of PRC were nuked too, just for the heck of it), and these guys driving APCs were zooming along at 90 mph because the ground was smooth as glass. Come to think of it, it WAS glass, and they could see quite well at night because it was glowing. No fear of hitting any (live) pedestrians either, or of being stopped by the Police.Unfortunately Calvin says that does not happen, only miserable, lingering death by dissolution of one's insides....

vmshete · Post by **vmshete** » 06 Jul 2000 12:25

Hey Guys, Explosion in Mumbai will be a sure Death of ur one Companion and thats me. I Live in Thane which is abbout 42 KM from Mumbai and a nuke attack on Mumbai will surely be a doom forcast for me. HELP!!!!!!------------------

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 06 Jul 2000 19:50

vmshete: Let Uncle narayanan remove your fears of nuclear war. Most residents of US cities, especially those who work in downtown areas, or live anywhere near military bases, have lived in the shadow of thermonuclear annihilation for over 40 years. Its no big deal. Try remembering that: 1) You gotta go sometime. This way at least people won't have trouble remembering when you went. 2) In a thermonuke war, you don't really have to worry about providing for your near and loved ones, etc. Just make sure they are within the initial flash circle. 3) Our highways, and our well-armed hordes of drug addicts and other assorted crazies, make sure that nuclear war is the least of the threats that we face every day. 4) If none of this comforts you, eat lots of sweets, fried foods, etc, and avoid exercise like the plague, as I do. Stick your head out and inhale the fumes in the late afternoon. Increase your chances of exiting in style, early. 5) Insult one of your most insecure colleagues: the one who collects automatic weapons. Challenge him/her to bring an Uzi to work. 6) Growl at the neighbor's Dobermann on your next walk. 7) If neighbor has no Doberman but has sweet daughter wife / Significant Other, wink at her instead. This 7-step process is guaranteed to remove nuclear war as a worry. Live the rest of your life in happiness.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 06 Jul 2000 21:32

"I think there is nothing wrong in scaring Indians of the effect of nuclear weapons. It's better if we know what happens, than to be oblivious to it or be ignorant of the facts."True - and I think an important fallout (pun unintended) of such a discussion is to make potential adversaries aware of what to expect in retaliation. The Mumbai scenario can surely be applied with similar results on Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad or Shanghai. Speaking of what someone else's nuke may do to you is an indirect way of telling them what they will get in return. Letting them know and rubbing it in is part of what deterrence is all about

Ramanujan · Post by **Ramanujan** » 06 Jul 2000 21:41

A program to minimize losses is always essential if its not completely possible to do away with the scare, with a bunch of lunatics threatening to nuke us, the least we can do is consider the threat to be real and prepare oursleves anticipating a maximum loss, and there is nothing wrong to get scared in this respect and ponder about the possible ways and extent of damage to us, this only increases our sensitivity to such an attack and thus government may atleast start working towards to pragmatic crisis management program given the history of GOI waking up only after considerable amount of damage is done.

Kaushal · Post by **Kaushal** » 06 Jul 2000 22:53

A program to minimize losses is always essential Easier said then done. Even the US gave up on Civil defense measures (e.g. building nuclear fallout shelters) long time ago. It makes no sense to even talk about it and it is certainly hopeless in India where there does not exist the infrastructure even when there is no bomb. One has to rely on the statistic that the probability of a nuclear attack is about the same as that of being hit by a meteor (which has also happened fairly recently in geological time).It is enough to say that the consequences of a nuclear attack will be devastating and life thereafter for those who survive will be a living hell. Of course a limited 'bandobast' can and probably will be made for the leadership to survive. For the rest of us it is asta la vista baby and trust that we do not survive such an attack, if we are in the vicinity. Kaushal

Ramanujan · Post by **Ramanujan** » 07 Jul 2000 01:21

Another good link : The Medical Implications of Nuclear War medical complications. <A HREF="http://books.nap.edu/books/0309036925/html/index.html" TARGET=_blank>http://books.nap.edu/books/0309036925/h ... ex.html</A>

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jul 2000 07:11

"do the major metro hospitals have the setup to treat large numbers of people for radiation poisoning, bone-marrow transplants etc ? "Guru - I'm working on this subject but the short answer is no. No country in the world has the setup to treat that large a number of casualties in the time window during which treatment is likely to be effective. The peoblem is compounded by the fact that treatment will not be for radiation alone, but burns, blast injuries and secondary diseases and complications.[This message has been edited by shiv (edited 06-07-2000).]

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 07 Jul 2000 07:41

Shiv: Is there any reason to believe that the hospitals are specially hardened or more survivable than other buildings? Generally in India, hospitals are located in built-up downtown areas: prime Ground-Zero locations. Is there any provision to bring physicians (assuming that they are safer than other residents from nuclear bomb effects) to surviving hospitals in the event of an emergency?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jul 2000 08:01

Narayanan - no such proposals exist. In a country where urban medical care does not follow any centrally planned system such a scheme is currently un-implementable IMHO.However, I have been overdosing myself on references about this stuff - and it appears that evacuation to outlying areas is the only serious possibility if one is talking of saving lives. It would be very difficult to bring people in when everyone is trying to get out ina state of panic.

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 07 Jul 2000 08:11

Shiv: Perhaps you have found the solution to one of India's greatest health-care problems: giving medical professionals a good reason to relocate to the rural areas. The Defense Ministry might help set up large medical facilities scattered at a 50-km radius around major cities. The other option was what I suggested long ago: place emergency supplies and hardened medical facilities and shelters beneath the highway system, for easiest access.

Calvin · Post by **Calvin** » 07 Jul 2000 08:26

When looking at Civil Defence from a deterrent standpoint, we are probably more concerned about protecting the infrastructure and preventing chaos than minimizing the number of dead. This is a somewhat callous thought, but that is the reality given the financial resources we can bring to bear on the matter in India.To me, the most important aspect of htis is that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan is *not* going to turn either country "to glass". From the Indian standpoint, a single attack on Delhi/Bombay/Ahmedabad is probably survivable for the nation from a economic/military/political standpoint.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jul 2000 08:47

Indeed Calvin - I think you are right - though these thoughts/opinions would not fall within the purvey of someone talking abot the medical aspects of nuclear war.I think more can be done with regard to the spread of industrialization to outlying areas. It would not be difficult to set up medium tech industries such as bottling plants for Intravenous fluids/ fluid accessories (needles etc) and antibiotic/analgesic producing plants in areas far away from places likely to take nuclear hits. These two groups of medical products in addition to blood and blood products are essential in any case and any excess capacity would be crucial in a post nuclear war scenario. Without these, physicians would be reduced to holding hand and giving verbal comfort.

Kaushal · Post by **Kaushal** » 07 Jul 2000 08:49

The Defense Ministry might help set up large medical facilities scattered at a 50-km radius around major cities. Machan, i am flabbergasted at the scale of your thinking. Remember we are talking of a country with one of the lowest number of per capita hospitals in the world. We cannot even build enough hospitals in the urban centers of India, and we are going to build more 50 miles away !As for evacuating people after the event, that is simply an absurdity. Most of the roads will be impassable and will not be navigable. Those who survive will simply have to stagger to the nearest station where there is uncontaminated food and water.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Jul 2000 08:58

Let us consider it from a disaster management perspective. (please note this part is not examined in M.V.Ramana's paper). I am assuming the same things that M.V.Ramana assumed i.e a 15 Kt blast with the Ground Zero somewhere near VT Fort. Of the institutions and facilities of immediate significance, the following will be lost/unusable. 1) Administration and Emergency Services. a) The PRIMARY Disaster Management HQ at Mantralaya will be destroyed. We will also lose the Police HQ, and the EMP will kill off all Police Wireless sets and Wireless Repeater Stations. b) Fire and Ambulance services in the south will be destroyed, those in the central regions will be immobilised. c) The VSNL HQ and the SANGAM server will be lost. All landlines and cell phones will be inoperative. 2)Military Assets. a) Western Fleet HQ (unless it is moved) and most of the facilities in Bomaby port will be severely affected. b) The Army has a series of armament storage sites that will be lost. c) The Airforce has some radar assets near Madh Island which will be unusable. 3) Transport. a) Roads leading to the South of the city will be covered with debris, roads leading out of the city will be clogged with people trying to get out. Almost all private vehicles in south and central bombay will be inoperable. b) Rail services will be down as well. WR and CR RHQs will be destroyed. The entire rail network upto Igatpuri on the Western Railway is DC and hence it will inoperable. c) Air services will be down at Sahar Intl. and Santacruz Domestic. Any airplanes parked there will be unusable. The ATC will be lost. To a high probability a large number of the planes in the air at the time will suffer damage from the blast and will need to make emergency landings. The Heliport at Juhu will be unusable. 4) Medical Services. a) The entire public health administrative setup based at mantralaya will be lost. b) Most of the major hospitals will lost, some further away from ground zero like LTMC-Sion and Rajawadi may survive but they will in all probability be too heavily contaminated to serve in their full capacity. A vast majority of Bombay's medical staff will be killed outright. c) It is also possible that a large reserve of drugs maintained at storehouses in south bombay will be completely unusable. 5) Water Resources. a) The water supply lakes at Tansa and Vihar will be unfit for drinking or personal use. b) Most of the effluent flowing into Powai lake will make the water almost unusable. 6) Commercial/Industrial. a) The BSE and most of the RHQs of big businesses and brokerage in bombay will be completely destroyed. b) The industrial units to the south of parel will be completely destroyed. c) The industrial units north of Parel all the way up to Kanjurmarg/Bhandup will suffer damage from either fires or control system failures. d) The industrial units north of Kanjurmarg will have to stop production as there will most likely be an electric supply failure/tripping. e) The large commercial and industrial trading and retail areas of Bhendi Bazaar and Crawford Market will be lost. 7) Pertroleum Supplies. a) almost all the fuel and petrol stores in bombay will be unusable or destroyed. Now let us look at what is likely to survive. 1) Administrative and Emergency Services. a) It is unlikely that any administrative/police/emergency services units in the city will survive the blast. However most of the units in New Bombay will survive and although their communications networks will be impaired they will retain a fair bit of their operational capacity. b)Disaster Management HQ, ALTERNATE ONE at Shahada near Pune will survive. c) Fire and Emergency services in the northern parts of bombay will not suffer too much physical attrition to their assets and their manpower. 2) Military Assets. a) Any naval assets farther than 20 miles to sea will suffer little damage. All ships and facilities at JNPT, Nhava Sheva will in all probability survive. Although again communications will be impaired. b) Any army assets in north bombay will survive. The cantonments at lining the Bombay Pune highway will survive. c) The airbase and assets in Pune will survive. 3) Transport. a) A large part of the roads in North Bombay will be unharmed. Atleast part of the vehicles in north bombay will survive. Almost all the road heads leading into the city, including the Vashi Bridge, Marol and Dahisar Naka will survive.b) Most of the rail heads and lines in the suburbs north of bandra and the lines and heads near and up to Nhava Sheva and CBD Belapur will survive. Optimistically the yards at Kalyan and Karjat will be working order and there may be a stock of DMU's lying around. c) Pune Airport will survive. 4) Medical Services. a) Private practitioners and private hospitals in the north of the city will survive. b) Most of the medical centers in New Bombay will survive. 5) Water Resources. a) The water in Tansa and Vihar may or may not usable for drinking but it will be useful for cleaning up the place and putting out fires. b) Water Catchment areas in the surrounding regions, for eample Panshet Dam near pune will suffer no damage. 6) Commercial and Industrial. a) Most of the industrial and commercial enterprises in the north and north east and along the entire Kalwa belt, and the MHADA belt will survive. b) Most of the vegetable and food markets of New Bombay will survive. These markets were moved out from Byculla as part of an effort to minimise congestion. This gives us an idea of what to expect in the immediate aftermath of the disaster. A few more comments. There will definetely be an exodus of persons from the city. This will cause a panic and many more people will attempt to flee the city. Many or most of these people will be wearing contaminated clothing or will have high levels of contamination in their bodies. It is likely that a severe bout of communal violence will break out in many places. As the time goes on and scarce resources find their way into the city. Communities may clash over the distribution of these resources resulting in violence. Criminal elements ever present in Bombay will very futilely exploit the suituation to some minor immediate benifit. Medical services will be of a poor quality as doctors will administer medicines in a very poor fashion. This is partly because they will not have time for proper diagnostics and tests and secondly because many will simply not be qualified or mentally in the right frame of mind to do their jobs properly. Due to this and other aspects of the situation several essential drugs and medicines will quickly be in short supply. The administrative infrastructure will completely collapse, every single officer will simply flee. This includes police, civil administration, civil maintence services and civil defence. The magnitude of the tragedy will overcome even the toughest and most disciplined among them. this concludes my take on the effects of the 15 Kt. blast on Bombay's infrastructure. Unlike Dr.M.V.Ramana, i am declaring that given Bombay's importance and value, it will definetely be a target of the enemy's nuclear strength. In my next post i will address what i believe can serve as a prototype for a disaster management plan. [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 06-07-2000).] *** pasted here at D.RAMANA's request.***This is a topic i have thought about in great detail after i studied news reports about a disaster management plan that was put forth by the Former deans of the Sion Hosp., KEM, King George to the Sharad Pawar Administration after the 1993 riots. (janta.. what you read here will definetely upset you.. but kindly resist plastering this thread with angry remarks and general rubbish, if you feel like it please start another thread and revile me and whoever else you want.. but kindly do not do it on this thread, your specific comments esp. on things i may have got wrong/missed out are welcome)A few introductory comments. Although in the M.V.Ramana paper a casualty figure of approximately 1 MD has been suggested. I personally feel that the actual figure will be closer to 3 MD. (As an experimental physicist I am used to expecting that the problems i face will be three times as bad and so i do the same here) Subsequent to the blast all administrative capacity in the bombay area will have been exhausted. People from all walks of life will have been exposed to atleast a few hundred rem of dose. This will in all probability curtail the life span of exposed people to about 5-10 years. The induction of fresh personnel into the area will only expose more people to radiation. So I personally feel that we must make every attempt to utilise the affected population to clean up the mess. I am not saying outside people will not have to brought in.. but as time goes on it must be the former city dwellers who rise to the task. I do not know how this will be achieved, only that it MUST be achieved if a semblance of normalcy is to be restored in Bombay. I am not talking about issues like environmental damage/long term effects of radiation on the soil/ on humans or animals or even about long term economic or psychological impact. I am merely addressing what I feel will constitute a necessary effort at the local level of restoration of order in Bombay in the aftermath of such a tragedy. Also note, regretably the lives of several public servants and persons who will participate in this effort are forefiet. The esposure they sustain in the field will (imo) most certainly be fatal. so now i begin.. Preliminary Response at the local level. 1) ALTERNATE ONE at YASHADA must become active as soon as confirmation of the disaster is recieved. I believe there is a mechanism for this in place. ALTERNATE ONE will liase with the CENTRE(may or may not be New Delhi) on this as well and in all probability a state of emergency will be declared in the State of Maharashtra. The Designated Governor MUST fly into YASHADA and seize control of operations there. 2) An Aircraft from the IAF base will be airborne and in ~ 10 minutes it should relay a preliminary BDA to ALTERNATE ONE. 3) Subsequently, a specially equipped set of communications+recce teams must be inserted into the city. These teams will be tasked with placing radiation hardened communication sets at several points in the city. Their insertion must take place within 2-3 hours of the disaster. These teams must have with them all the necessary equipment and spares. Once inserted they will establish a working perimeter and patrol it relaying information to ALTERNATE ONE. An airborne observer patrol must also be maintained. These units will ascertain the extent to which the railways and roads are usable. 4)Immediately after the communication teams are sent in, at a preselected place in Bombay North, an ABHQ team must be inserted. They must make contact with all remaining local administration officials in the unaffected areas. This process must not exceed 24 hours, by which time every public official from who can stand on his/her two feet must register with ABHQ. 5) A demolitions team will be sent in to establish the FIRE BREAK LINE. 6) Immediately after the release of the ABHQ team. Preselected Army, CRP, SRP units from the cantonments lining the Bombay-Pune road must move towards bombay. They must seal the Check Point at Dahisar, and sieze the Vashi Bridge. These units must be in position in 3 hours. A directive must be sent out to all police stations in the nearby area to use all available force to arrest any persons not domicled in their jurisdiction, this will take care of any persons who may have slipped outside the city. 7) Pune Airport must become the staging area for all flights it must be kept open round the clock. Pune railyard will be the a node as well and every single unattached DMU all the way up to Nasik and Surat on the Central, Igatpuri on the Western and Solapur on the South Central Lines must start up towards Karjat, and Pune. Two teams must be dropped at Karjat and Kalyan respectively and the lines must be cleared of all EMUs and carriages. This process must take no more than 48 hours. All linemen west of Pune MUST be called to a staging area at Shivajinagar, at the end of 48 hours this contingent must be on its way to Kalyan and to Karjat. This more or less concludes the preliminary response at the local level. The STAGE-I response will begin 24 hours after the disaster, and will consist of the following operations. 1) Operation Airport: A team of experts inserted into the airport perimeter will clear the place of unusable jets and reopen the airport. They will use backup DG sets to operate the landing lights and set up a rudimentary radio communication facility. They will recieve as many firefighting units as they need for this operation. If need be the units must be flown in. Another team will restore Juhu Heliport in a similar fashion. 2) Operation Medical Zone.This is to establish the what will be the worlds largest hostpital. This effort will consist of :2a) Operation Traige Line. A team set up at ABHQ will build out existing medical resources (i.e personnel and supplies) a triage zone in the city. This zone will geographically demarcated and specially prepared signage will point out the way for people. People entering this zone will be labelled. Those in need of surgical attention will be pushed towards the Surgical Pickup Point. 2b) Operation Surgical Line. A team from ABHQ will set up a Surgical Zone and will arrange for ambulances to run to the surgical pickup points. This team will help any doctors come there and set up minor OTs. Patients in need of more medical attention will shifted to the Advanced Care Centres. 2c) Operation Advanced Care. A team from YASHADA will set up advanced medical attention facilities at various places outside the city. They will arrange transportation to these places on a special train and by special ambulances. 2d) Operation Blood Supply. An outfit from YASHADA will coordinate collection and distribution of blood from centres across the state. 2e) Operation Medicine Stock. A team from YASHADA will arrange for medical supply and storage. 3) Operation Police Dept. The security officials attached to the ABHQ team will set up a Tranistional Police Agency, which will be commanded by an officer of the rank of DGP. They will also have weapons and communication equipment. They will clear the main roads,re-direct any milling crowds, seize any private vehicles and discourage crime with the use of adequate force. 4) Operation Food and Water Supply. The ABHQ will set up and slowly insert food supply teams into the city. These teams will set up Ration offices north of the FIRE BREAK LINE and await the arrival of food and supplies.A transport team from ABHQ will organise tranport to the Ration offices. and will inform the Transport Team at YASHADA.A team from ALTERNATE ONE at YASHADA will seize all warehouses and godowns in Pune and the adjoining area, it will also seize all food at the wholesale markets and will keep food and water there until the Tranport team from SHAHADA gives it the go-ahead to start moving stuff towards Bombay. 5) Operation Morgue. A ban on cremations and burials will take effect throughout the city immediately.A road opening team will clear a path from the FIRE BREAK LINE to the Sassoon Docks and any other large ship docking areas. ABHQ will sieze all private vehicles it can lay its hands on and will run them down the streets of the city. The bodies collected here will be dumped at SASSOON DOCK. These vehicles will be specially marked. These bodies will be dumped into the large storehouses in near the docks for the time being. A team from the navy will arrive and try to establish which of the ships are still floatworthy. Tugs from Nhava Sheva will help clear the docks and harbour.These ships will used as funeral barges and the bodies stored in the dock warehouses will dumped into the cargo holds of these ships and the ships will be towed out to sea and sunk. As far as possible all bodies will be disposed off in this way. This process will begin on 72 hours after the blast. 6) Operation Zoning. Trained radiation tech. teams will spread out beyond the FIRE BREAK LINE and identify areas of maximum radiation contamination. This is the first step of the clean up operation. These teams will be escorted by firefighting teams that will douse the fire in an around their area of operation. 7) Operation Motivation. A team will setup a public address system from the areas north of the TRIAGE ZONE. They will broadcast appeals for volounteers etc... This team will also act as the official media organ for the ABHQ. 8) Operation Railroad.The railway workers assembled at karjat and Kalyan will move down the line repairing the railway where-ever possible. They will be accompanied by firefighting teams deputed by ABHQ. This completes most of what i feel is STAGE-I. I feel a little tired now, so i will only put up STAGE-II later tomorrow. STAGE-II will involve several more complicated steps and will address the bulk of the clean up operation. STAGE-III will deal squarely with enormous task of rebuilding elected government and the regular administrative infrastructure in Bombay etc... There are several aspects of this post that I am quite uneasy about. I have thought about these issues for a long time now and i cant say that there is a time when i have felt that i have "Thought of it All", so i am quite sure i will have missed out on things, so your comments are welcome. And yes ladies and gentlemen, as you can all plainly see effecting this kind of a response will neccessarily require an agency at the central level with an office at the state level.. but then maybe some of you who know my writings on this board will recall that I have been SCREAMING.. for a NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY in INDIA for atleast 2 YEARS NOW!!. So i end this post with yet another appeal to the powers that be to set up a disaster management agency at the central level [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 14-07-2000).]

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jul 2000 09:12

"It is likely that a severe bout of communal violence will break out in many places. As the time goes on and scarce resources find their way into the city. Communities may clash over the distribution of these resources resulting in violence. Criminal elements ever present in Bombay will very futilely exploit the suituation to some minor immediate benifit. "The richest, with private transport and access to information (radios) will escape first and fastest and fill up hospitals outside the city - in Pune/Panvel/LonavalaThe moderately wealthy will clog the roads, be victims of looting, dehydration, dysentery and road deaths.The poorest and the homeless will simply move into the evacuated homes. Groundwater supplies -(borewells) may take a while to get contaminated - and some people may well survive on this.The worst injured dying will remain near ground zero to die.The towns around the main bombed city will need MASSIVE (millions of litres) of drinking water and Intravenous fluid bottles, tons of antibiotics and pain killers and food of course.

Sunil · Post by **Sunil** » 07 Jul 2000 11:04

This is a topic i have thought about in great detail after i studied news reports about a disaster management plan that was put forth by the Former deans of the Sion Hosp., KEM, King George to the Sharad Pawar Administration after the 1993 riots. (janta.. what you read here will definetely upset you.. but kindly resist plastering this thread with angry remarks and general rubbish, if you feel like it please start another thread and revile me and whoever else you want.. but kindly do not do it on this thread, your specific comments esp. on things i may have got wrong/missed out are welcome)A few introductory comments. Although in the M.V.Ramana paper a casualty figure of approximately 1 MD has been suggested. I personally feel that the actual figure will be closer to 3 MD. (As an experimental physicist I am used to expecting that the problems i face will be three times as bad and so i do the same here) Subsequent to the blast all administrative capacity in the bombay area will have been exhausted. People from all walks of life will have been exposed to atleast a few hundred rem of dose. This will in all probability curtail the life span of exposed people to about 5-10 years. The induction of fresh personnel into the area will only expose more people to radiation. So I personally feel that we must make every attempt to utilise the affected population to clean up the mess. I am not saying outside people will not have to brought in.. but as time goes on it must be the former city dwellers who rise to the task. I do not know how this will be achieved, only that it MUST be achieved if a semblance of normalcy is to be restored in Bombay. I am not talking about issues like environmental damage/long term effects of radiation on the soil/ on humans or animals or even about long term economic or psychological impact. I am merely addressing what I feel will constitute a necessary effort at the local level of restoration of order in Bombay in the aftermath of such a tragedy. Also note, regretably the lives of several public servants and persons who will participate in this effort are forefiet. The esposure they sustain in the field will (imo) most certainly be fatal. so now i begin.. Preliminary Response at the local level. 1) ALTERNATE ONE at YASHADA must become active as soon as confirmation of the disaster is recieved. I believe there is a mechanism for this in place. ALTERNATE ONE will liase with the CENTRE(may or may not be New Delhi) on this as well and in all probability a state of emergency will be declared in the State of Maharashtra. The Designated Governor MUST fly into YASHADA and seize control of operations there. 2) An Aircraft from the IAF base will be airborne and in ~ 10 minutes it should relay a preliminary BDA to ALTERNATE ONE. 3) Subsequently, a specially equipped set of communications+recce teams must be inserted into the city. These teams will be tasked with placing radiation hardened communication sets at several points in the city. Their insertion must take place within 2-3 hours of the disaster. These teams must have with them all the necessary equipment and spares. Once inserted they will establish a working perimeter and patrol it relaying information to ALTERNATE ONE. An airborne observer patrol must also be maintained. These units will ascertain the extent to which the railways and roads are usable. 4)Immediately after the communication teams are sent in, at a preselected place in Bombay North, an ABHQ team must be inserted. They must make contact with all remaining local administration officials in the unaffected areas. This process must not exceed 24 hours, by which time every public official from who can stand on his/her two feet must register with ABHQ. 5) A demolitions team will be sent in to establish the FIRE BREAK LINE. 6) Immediately after the release of the ABHQ team. Preselected Army, CRP, SRP units from the cantonments lining the Bombay-Pune road must move towards bombay. They must seal the Check Point at Dahisar, and sieze the Vashi Bridge. These units must be in position in 3 hours. A directive must be sent out to all police stations in the nearby area to use all available force to arrest any persons not domicled in their jurisdiction, this will take care of any persons who may have slipped outside the city. 7) Pune Airport must become the staging area for all flights it must be kept open round the clock. Pune railyard will be the a node as well and every single unattached DMU all the way up to Nasik and Surat on the Central, Igatpuri on the Western and Solapur on the South Central Lines must start up towards Karjat, and Pune. Two teams must be dropped at Karjat and Kalyan respectively and the lines must be cleared of all EMUs and carriages. This process must take no more than 48 hours. All linemen west of Pune MUST be called to a staging area at Shivajinagar, at the end of 48 hours this contingent must be on its way to Kalyan and to Karjat. This more or less concludes the preliminary response at the local level. The STAGE-I response will begin 24 hours after the disaster, and will consist of the following operations. 1) Operation Airport: A team of experts inserted into the airport perimeter will clear the place of unusable jets and reopen the airport. They will use backup DG sets to operate the landing lights and set up a rudimentary radio communication facility. They will recieve as many firefighting units as they need for this operation. If need be the units must be flown in. 2) Operation Medical Zone.This is to establish the what will be the worlds largest hostpital. This effort will consist of :2a) Operation Triage Line. A team set up at ABHQ will build out existing medical resources (i.e personnel and supplies) a triage zone in the city. This zone will geographically demarcated and specially prepared signage will point out the way for people. People entering this zone will be labelled. Those in need of surgical attention will be pushed towards the Surgical Pickup Point. 2b) Operation Surgical Line. A team from ABHQ will set up a Surgical Zone and will arrange for ambulances to run to the surgical pickup points. This team will help any doctors come there and set up minor OTs. Patients in need of more medical attention will shifted to the Advanced Care Centres. 2c) Operation Advanced Care. A team from YASHADA will set up advanced medical attention facilities at various places outside the city. They will arrange transportation to these places on a special train and by special ambulances. 2d) Operation Blood Supply. An outfit from YASHADA will coordinate collection and distribution of blood from centres across the state. 2e) Operation Medicine Stock. A team from YASHADA will arrange for medical supply and storage. 3) Operation Police Dept. The security officials attached to the ABHQ team will set up a Tranistional Police Agency, which will be commanded by an officer of the rank of DGP. They will also have weapons and communication equipment. They will clear the main roads,re-direct any milling crowds, seize any private vehicles and discourage crime with the use of adequate force. 4) Operation Food and Water Supply. The ABHQ will set up and slowly insert food supply teams into the city. These teams will set up Ration offices north of the FIRE BREAK LINE and await the arrival of food and supplies.A transport team from ABHQ will organise tranport to the Ration offices. and will inform the Transport Team at YASHADA. A team from ALTERNATE ONE at YASHADA will seize all warehouses and godowns in Pune and the adjoining area, it will also seize all food at the wholesale markets and will keep food and water there until the Tranport team from YASHADA gives it the go-ahead to start moving stuff towards Bombay. 5) Operation Morgue. A ban on cremations and burials will take effect throughout the city immediately.A road opening team will clear a path from the FIRE BREAK LINE to the Sassoon Docks and any other large ship docking areas. ABHQ will sieze all private vehicles it can lay its hands on and will run them down the streets of the city. The bodies collected here will be dumped at SASSOON DOCK. These vehicles will be specially marked. These bodies will be dumped into the large storehouses in near the docks for the time being. A team from the navy will arrive and try to establish which of the ships are still floatworthy. Tugs from Nhava Sheva will help clear the docks and harbour.These ships will used as funeral barges and the bodies stored in the dock warehouses will dumped into the cargo holds of these ships and the ships will be towed out to sea and sunk. As far as possible all bodies will be disposed off in this way. This process will begin on 72 hours after the blast. 6) Operation Zoning. Trained radiation tech. teams will spread out beyond the FIRE BREAK LINE and identify areas of maximum radiation contamination. This is the first step of the clean up operation. These teams will be escorted by firefighting teams that will douse the fire in an around their area of operation. 7) Operation Motivation. A team will setup a public address system from the areas north of the TRIAGE ZONE. They will broadcast appeals for volounteers etc... This team will also act as the official media organ for the ABHQ. 8) Operation Railroad.The railway workers assembled at karjat and Kalyan will move down the line repairing the railway where-ever possible. They will be accompanied by firefighting teams deputed by ABHQ. This completes most of what i feel is STAGE-I. I feel a little tired now, so i will only put up STAGE-II later tomorrow. STAGE-II will involve several more complicated steps and will address the bulk of the clean up operation. STAGE-III will deal squarely with enormous task of rebuilding elected government and the regular administrative infrastructure in Bombay etc... There are several aspects of this post that I am quite uneasy about. I have thought about these issues for a long time now and i cant say that there is a time when i have felt that i have "Thought of it All", so i am quite sure i will have missed out on things, so your comments are welcome. And yes ladies and gentlemen, as you can all plainly see effecting this kind of a response will neccessarily require an agency at the central level with an office at the state level.. but then maybe some of you who know my writings on this board will recall that I have been SCREAMING.. for a NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY in INDIA for atleast 2 YEARS NOW!!. So i end this post with yet another appeal to the powers that be to set up a disaster management agency at the central level. [This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 07-07-2000).][This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 07-07-2000).][This message has been edited by sunil sainis (edited 14-07-2000).]

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 07 Jul 2000 12:26

Sunil - I may want to haggle with you over the nitty gritty - but I can't agree with you more over this: I have been SCREAMING.. for a NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY in INDIA for atleast 2 YEARS NOW!India is blessed (cursed?) with yearly floods, cyclones, draughts and chemical disasters that give us a great opportunity to practice how to channel resources - but no such national policy exists. There is no harm in setting up a "strategic reserve" of several thousand tonnes of medical supplies in depots dispersed over many states that can come in handy for all these disasters including a nuclear attack.Pharmaceutical firms inundate doctors with free drugs and other freebies - and if a small amount is channelled into a strategic reserve, which is constantly used up before expiry date we could have a really effecive resource for disaster managemant.Ultimately, the human disaster stemming from a nuclear attack will not be too different from an Orissa cyclone or a Latur earthquake.

Kuttan · Post by **Kuttan** » 07 Jul 2000 19:48

Many insults ago, I had started a thread titled: "Emergency Management System" or something like that. I wonder if it is somewhere in the Archives. The idea was simple: combine the land acquisition, digging, filling and concreting of the National SuperHighway System (which is already a national economic priority) with the development of an Emergency Management System which would use the space under and next to the highways, and provide fast transport. At least people will know to stagger and climb up on the highway, whether its cyclone, tidal wave, earthquake or nuclear attack. This would be the last chance to get something as simple and intuitive as this organized and done, but in a nation where they kick out citizens from national monuments in order to collect baksheesh from phoreners, well.....maybe the higher spots on the highways, with a grand view and hence direct exposure to the first blast, can be reserved for VIPs and their offspring, the next lower ones for the NRI quota, and so on. Mine will be the charred skeleton in the tunnel.