India's Power Sector

[Theo_Fidel]

Baseload power is not a valid argument anymore in modern times, with interconnected grids and powerful computers.

Also not how our discussion ended back then. When the cost of one power source starts approaching 2 cent/kw all other power sources become uneconomic. Including nuclear and yes even gas(which is expensive in India). There is a reason GOI has set aside all the thermal projects, including gas, coal, etc. You would never build one only to throttle it when solar starts. You would much rather, way over build solar and work to capture the excess for night time. Lot cheaper. You can build 10,000MW of solar and have it commissioned by this December if you wanted. No other power source can say this.

There is a reason every country is scrambling to build mammoth LiIon battery factories. India exempted. They know what’s coming, while we twiddle thumbs. In 10 years time we will be importing batteries....

[Mort Walker]

Why is baseload power not valid anymore? It will be the case for a long time since the power grid in India is very inconsistent.

Batteries are inherently inefficient. The way forward is with fuel cells. Solar is easy since the capital expenditure is relatively low and in no way will there be massive battery farms in India or anywhere else.

[disha]

The correct comparison should be UP to CA if we go on population level. If we go by state GDP, then we should compare NCR to CA. Both UP and NCR have higher power rates than TN.

Mort'ji., TN is the correct comparison since it is diversely industrialized and at the same time has a strong agricultural sector. Also it has the TN film industry. The other comparison is Mah., but it is skewed due to Mumbai. Guj is not a comparison since the farming sector is still evolving.

So CA-TN is close comparison to get a baseline (other is CA-Guj/CA-Mah) of burden of electrical energy. This is apples to apples comparison., that is a diversely industrialized state like TN pays 5x more price per unit of energy than it should. North/NE and other regions could be 7x or 10x or whatever 'x'., but they can be compared to regions within Mah/Guj or TN to get an internal burden of energy. And what can be innovated in India to reduce that burden can then be replicated in other parts.

Now having established that TN pays 5x more than it should., how can one reduce that energy burden? What one needs is a break down of cost. Say you are paying Rs. 3.50 per unit to Rs. 6.60 per unit at higher end., let's say your average cost is Rs. 5 per unit (again this rough approximation., but one has to start somewhere) for obtaining electricity to your doorstep. And that is a damn good rough estimate.

See this link from power ministry http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/executivesummary/2016/exe_summary-01.pdf., the cost of supply is 501 paise., or Rs. 5/per unit. Also check out the rate of power supply by utility/power station. The lowest average I find is for Nuclear (as expected) and Coal (again as expected). Hydro is seasonal and hence its cost structure varies and it is reflected in the table and Gas is costly. Tarapur 1 & II for example is < 1 Rs/unit !!. Solar is not showing up yet in the table (or I missed it).

So for cheap base load power., India has no choice but to go for Nuclear and Coal. And remember, by putting India in a nuclear straightjacket., its economy is being hampered.

Hence a national campaign to clean up the DISCOMs/produce surplus power and make the power available at Rs. 2/unit generally will go a long way.

[disha]

Solar with battery storage even though looking attractive on paper is still costly at 8-10 cents/KwH or straight up Rs. 5/KwH at generation.

Reason for solar parks going big in India is because of faster turnaround., the payoff on capital is in months instead of years. And this is because of already prevalent high rates. Once India starts having cheaper base payloads., do not get surprised when this same solar parks will be decommissioned unless it has paid off the capital - and here the bet is that it will take 7-10 years for the baseload capacity to catch up - and by that time the solar parks would have almost broke even.

[Theo_Fidel]

Mort Saar,

Base load is not valid as none of the Fossil fuel plants or even Nuclear runs at full plf anymore. In TN when the wind blows at night most are backed down to almost zero. Same will happen with solar during day. What they are operating as, is reserve power, to bridge the gap as needed. So fossil fuel plants often start and stop many times in a day to deal with varying demand. There is no base load anymore.

There are bunch of coal plants in TN running at 50% or so plf right now. You think this is more efficient than battery? Fuel cells are right now more inefficient that battery. I believe the Toyota fuel cell in the Mirai is running at about 50% efficiency, but once one factors in the losses from producing Hydrogen, it is closer to 20% efficient. Batteries right now are running about 75%-80% efficient round trip, this is approaching pumped storage @ 80%-85% efficient.

There will be massive battery farms. It is not that big a deal, 10 TESLA x 100 kw packs = 6'x10'x0.5'x10 = 6'x10'x5'. About the size of of your dining table for 1 MW. Imagine you stack them 5 units high. With 8' center' Aisles - 100 sqft. for 5 MW. For a 1000 MW capacity, w/ 10,000 batteries, you would need = 1000/5 = 200x100sqft = 20,000 sqft. A single warehouse, 100 feet x 200 feet x 30' tall should cover it.This is not particularly challenging. There are buildings 10 times this size all over Chennai. To start with we would need about 4 hours of supply in the evening. About 16,000 MW should do it for the daily variation in TN. So about 16 of these modest warehouses strategically placed around the state.

Cost. The long term ultimate cost for Li-Ion is $20 / kw. But let use $100 per kw, which is more or less available right now at large scale. So that would be $100,000 per MW or about $100 million per 1000 MW. So total cost for TN about $1.6 Billion battery cost. Escalate for various extras to $2.5 Billion. Or about Rs 15,000 Crore. This not an un-doable price. We just spent Rs 25,000 crore on the phase-1 of a single metro and plan to spend another Rs 40,000 crore on phase-2. Whether such battery manufacturing capacity exists of course is a question.

But rest assured, other will build it, and as with everything else, India will then import batteries and wonder why we have no manufacturing. I expect to find us here in 10 years lammenting the lack of Battery manufacturing in India. Blame everyone but ourselves.....

[nandakumar]

A novice question. Does the world have enough lithium reserves and I believe cobalt which too is required although in smaller quantity?

[JayS]

A novice question. Does the world have enough lithium reserves and I believe cobalt which too is required although in smaller quantity?

I suppose we have significant Lithium available. Afghanistan is suppose to have huge Li deposits and is said to be one reason why China is so much interest in Af.

[disha]

A novice question. Does the world have enough lithium reserves and I believe cobalt which too is required although in smaller quantity?

Lithium is a very abundant element on Earth., it is called rare earth because it is rarely found as easily retreivable metal veins.

Current lithium batteries are reprocessed to obtain nickel & cobalt & not necessarily lithium

India must do research on lithium air & lithium sulphur batteries

[JTull]

Storage is where the most $blns are being spent now in energy research.

Without home-grown tech and ultra high capacity manufacturing, battery tech will never be able to compete on pricing. With National Solar 100GW by 2020 vision, there's a good chance that our solar dependence will cause grid load imbalance. Look up the problems faced by South Australia and how Elon Musk is trying to muscle in.

Large capacity manufacturing is not possible without multiple avenues of demand. We've no infrastructure for electric/plug-in hybrid vehicles.

Molten salt based energy storage may be an easier route to achieve economics.

[Theo_Fidel]

Molten salt based energy storage may be an easier route to achieve economics.

The CSP projects suffer from low yield right now. There are physical limits to increasing this.

Crescent dunes 110 MW project with molten salt storage just finished a full year run in 2016. Load factor is 13%. Tough to see them being able to compete with 22% load factor CSi PV project just down the road.

Also heliostats are not as efficient as PV. Esp. the ones at the periphery. The crescent dune site occupies 1,600 acres. If you had installed PV on this you have a 1,600/4 (acres/MW) 400 mw nameplate pv facility. So...

Crescent dunes CSP w/ salt.
Capacity 110MW
Load factor - 13% (2016 ~ 135,000 MWh produced)
Area 1600 acres. 14.5 acres/MW nameplate.
Cost ~ $1 Billion

Solar PV
Capacity 400 MW
Load Factor - 22% (Annual potential production ~ 770,000 MWh)
Area 1600 acres. 4 acres per/MW name plate.
Cost $1.1 per watt installed. ~ $500 million.
Including 1000 MWh of Li Ion Battery + ~ $150 Million(manufacturing capacity does not exist)
Total $650 Million

Tough to compete with those numbers.

[Katare]

Sticky film thinggy is not the problem but transparency is impossible because you can either eat the cake or keep it.

Not really. It will be opaque only to infra red. Visual spectrum can still pass through.

IR is really bad for the Solar cells and almost all of the energy of solar radiation is in visible spectrum. A transparent SOLAR cell is an oxymoron.

[Mort Walker]

Base load is not valid as none of the Fossil fuel plants or even Nuclear runs at full plf anymore. In TN when the wind blows at night most are backed down to almost zero. Same will happen with solar during day. What they are operating as, is reserve power, to bridge the gap as needed. So fossil fuel plants often start and stop many times in a day to deal with varying demand. There is no base load anymore.

There are bunch of coal plants in TN running at 50% or so plf right now. You think this is more efficient than battery? Fuel cells are right now more inefficient that battery. I believe the Toyota fuel cell in the Mirai is running at about 50% efficiency, but once one factors in the losses from producing Hydrogen, it is closer to 20% efficient. Batteries right now are running about 75%-80% efficient round trip, this is approaching pumped storage @ 80%-85% efficient.

Theoji,

I think we're talking about the same thing. Reserve power can be referred to as peak load. The thermal and nuclear power plants can be run near full capacity and at certain times they are. If a particular power plant has been stopped for any period of time, it means the base load is being carried by another plant.

What you're saying about batteries is true, but the energy per unit volume is more in a fuel cell. The future of transportation will indeed be electric, but not with batteries as they have a very low energy-to-weight ratio. It will be with fuel cells and they will also be used for power storage in other applications. We haven't seen trucks and buses using Li-ion or other battery chemistries in any real use. Diesel is still king for energy/weight. Think of it this way - about 100 years ago the steam engine, the external combustion engine (ECE) was in production and then the internal combustion engine (ICE) came about. ECE was and is more efficient than ICE. I believe it is over 50% efficiency for ECE vs. about 30% efficiency for ICE. However, the energy-to-weight and volume is better with ICE.

We talked about photosynthesis some posts earlier...and studies in to biological systems for storing electric power have to be considered. Take ATP in the human body, a very efficient system of 50% is something that needs to be studied. Once we have fuel cells that can release the energy of long chain molecules, that will be the way forward. IMHO, the US will get there in the next 20-30 years along with fusion.

There will be massive battery farms. It is not that big a deal, 10 TESLA x 100 kw packs = 6'x10'x0.5'x10 = 6'x10'x5'. About the size of of your dining table for 1 MW. Imagine you stack them 5 units high. With 8' center' Aisles - 100 sqft. for 5 MW. For a 1000 MW capacity, w/ 10,000 batteries, you would need = 1000/5 = 200x100sqft = 20,000 sqft. A single warehouse, 100 feet x 200 feet x 30' tall should cover it.This is not particularly challenging. There are buildings 10 times this size all over Chennai. To start with we would need about 4 hours of supply in the evening. About 16,000 MW should do it for the daily variation in TN. So about 16 of these modest warehouses strategically placed around the state.

Cost. The long term ultimate cost for Li-Ion is $20 / kw. But let use $100 per kw, which is more or less available right now at large scale. So that would be $100,000 per MW or about $100 million per 1000 MW. So total cost for TN about $1.6 Billion battery cost. Escalate for various extras to $2.5 Billion. Or about Rs 15,000 Crore. This not an un-doable price. We just spent Rs 25,000 crore on the phase-1 of a single metro and plan to spend another Rs 40,000 crore on phase-2. Whether such battery manufacturing capacity exists of course is a question.

But rest assured, other will build it, and as with everything else, India will then import batteries and wonder why we have no manufacturing. I expect to find us here in 10 years lammenting the lack of Battery manufacturing in India. Blame everyone but ourselves.....

Elon Musk is in to too many ventures. I think he will be broke in a few years. I would be scared to death by 1 GW capacity warehouse full of Li-ion batteries. I'd rather TN get more nuclear power plants.

[Theo_Fidel]

Mort Saar,

I’m enjoying this conversation.

Yes, use the ‘Reserve Load’ term. The math says we will need at least 50% of capacity to remain Coal/Nuclear Reserve Load. The way the transmission infrastructure and regional politics are, we don’t really have a choice. So I think we may need some more of both in India.

IIRC the math was that we need ~ 700,000 MW of capacity to get India close to a first world economy. Right now we have ~ 300,000MW in Reserve Load, built or in construction. We need another 50,000MW of Reserve Load. Probably more Gas than Nuclear or Coal.

It is the remaining 50% that we need to focus on. About 350,000MW of renewable. We already have ~60,000MW of renewable. We need another 300,000MW or so of renewable. This is what was the conclusion 10 year ago mind you. I don't think it has changed much.
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WRT TESLA or Li-Ion batteries, yes I'm not fully convinced by either. I fully expect Elon to go splat at some point. But I will also be the first to hand him another $1,000 chek to get off the floor and try again. We need more like Elon Musk, and I'm no great devotee mind you, I have not bought any of his over-priced products. But Elon will land on his feet, even if his investor don't....
------------------------------------

The ability of Li-Ion batteries to scale has not been proven yet. Unlike say Solar or Wind. So there is still a window of opportunity for another technology to swoop in. Toyota/Honda/Hyundai believe that fuel cells can jump into the gap. But the products they have brought to market are not convincing. The price of Hydrogen is very high compared to electrons, even though Hydrogen is produced industrial scale. Maybe like you say Trucks/Heavy equipment can sustain the fuel cell market. My own sense is that economies of scale will make it tough. You can't have a separate fuel system just for one vehicle type. The cost of the infrastructure to support it would be prohibitive. But the math does say it is possible, so maybe they can get their costs down.

[Theo_Fidel]

Take ATP in the human body, a very efficient system of 50% is something that needs to be studied. Once we have fuel cells that can release the energy of long chain molecules, that will be the way forward. IMHO, the US will get there in the next 20-30 years along with fusion.

Heh! Good old ATP. High conversion efficiency , low power density. The reason why a scooty is able to beat Usain Bolt. And why living things have such a rough time moving fast. The reason why you start panting 10 sends after you start up stairs. The reason all bar fights come to an end after 30 seconds flat while OJ ran from the cops for 2 hours in his white bronco. The reason your muscles start burning as the mismatch of O2 to ATP causes Pyruvate to Lactic acid. All buried deep in our evolution.

ATP is also where it becomes clear we are nothing more than little Jet engines, with a mechanical molecular motors physically spinning to slam the 3rd phosphate into ADP.

The average Human body uses about 2.5 kwh of power a day. But the ATP needed to use this comes out to twice your body weight or about 100 kg. So energy density is 100kg ATP/24hours = 4 kg. So 100 watts/hr/4 kg = 25 wh/kg. Li – Ion is somewhere closer to 300 wh/kg so an order of magnitude higher. ATP is not very power dense, not a good source of electricity.

If the human body could run on Li-Ion we would be able to do the 100 m in 2.5 seconds.

Long Chain molecules all suffer from trace contamination issues that poison fuel cell catalyst. Maybe an enzyme catalyst, but that is 50 years in future. Well past our time on this planet.

[Mort Walker]

Theo ji,

I was referring to understanding ATP process from an efficiency POV. Yes, the human body does not have good energy density.

Li-ion and metal batteries are today's steam engine. I see no reason to waste time with them and focus on fuel cells that can be powered by natural gas or another hydrocarbon.

For electric power we're currently stuck with low efficiency devices such as PVs or converting heat to mechanical energy to generate power from a turbine. If we could take heat and convert directly to electric power with something like a thermocouple that has minimal losses, that would be a feat.

[Rishirishi]

Mort Saar,

I’m enjoying this conversation.

Yes, use the ‘Reserve Load’ term. The math says we will need at least 50% of capacity to remain Coal/Nuclear Reserve Load. The way the transmission infrastructure and regional politics are, we don’t really have a choice. So I think we may need some more of both in India.

IIRC the math was that we need ~ 700,000 MW of capacity to get India close to a first world economy. Right now we have ~ 300,000MW in Reserve Load, built or in construction. We need another 50,000MW of Reserve Load. Probably more Gas than Nuclear or Coal.

It is the remaining 50% that we need to focus on. About 350,000MW of renewable. We already have ~60,000MW of renewable. We need another 300,000MW or so of renewable. This is what was the conclusion 10 year ago mind you. I don't think it has changed much.
---------------------------------------

WRT TESLA or Li-Ion batteries, yes I'm not fully convinced by either. I fully expect Elon to go splat at some point. But I will also be the first to hand him another $1,000 chek to get off the floor and try again. We need more like Elon Musk, and I'm no great devotee mind you, I have not bought any of his over-priced products. But Elon will land on his feet, even if his investor don't....
------------------------------------

The ability of Li-Ion batteries to scale has not been proven yet. Unlike say Solar or Wind. So there is still a window of opportunity for another technology to swoop in. Toyota/Honda/Hyundai believe that fuel cells can jump into the gap. But the products they have brought to market are not convincing. The price of Hydrogen is very high compared to electrons, even though Hydrogen is produced industrial scale. Maybe like you say Trucks/Heavy equipment can sustain the fuel cell market. My own sense is that economies of scale will make it tough. You can't have a separate fuel system just for one vehicle type. The cost of the infrastructure to support it would be prohibitive. But the math does say it is possible, so maybe they can get their costs down.

Sir
Solar seems is about to turn disruptive now. The battery prices are projected to drop to approx us 35 per Kwh. A large house with 2 AC's will require at most 50 Kwh as backup. That is about 1 lack rupee. Once this happen, electricity may go the way mobile phones went. People in small towns and villages will simply produce their own electriricy at unimaginable low rates.

[VenkataS]

The dark side of plummetting solar prices
http://www.forbesindia.com/article/spec ... es/47357/1

According to the above the primary advantages for Chinese manufacturers is the availability of low cost debt at scale and the domestic sourcing of raw materials. I wonder why the government isn't working aggressively to promote Indian manufacturing here.

[suryag]

Solar cell manufacturing is environmentally unfriendly, hydrofluoric acid, silicon tetrachloride, arsenic pollution happen due to manufacture of solar cell. I for one would prefer the Chinese brothers manufacturing and we buying dirt cheap

[Theo_Fidel]

Rishi,

I simply don't think the general India population has that level of capital to invest. India will remain utilty scale Solar/Wind dominated.
-------------------------------

Indian solar manufacturing is not to scale or the required automation to compete.

There was a report from NRDC a few months ago that could be reduced to the following.

20,000MW of Solar per annum. Jobs -

- 45,000 Jobs in manufacturing w/ ~ 20,000 in cell/module manufacture. (Cell/Module manufacture has very high automation)
- 120,000 in Engineering,Construction, Management, etc.
- 20,000 Jobs permanent in maintenance.

The question becomes are you willing to risk ~ 150,000 jobs in everything else to install tariffs and try to create 20,000 jobs in the cell/module space and go against China which has the scale? So far all countries have swallowed their pride.... ..even India, keep in mind we have not challenged the WTO rule on domestic content, which is what is allowing this solar cost decline party to continue in India. Wouldn't take much to kill it like in the past.

Which brings us to, Li Ion manufacture. This not yet dominated by any one manufacturer. India could potentially pour subsidies into this sector and take over the world market by driving down cost.

But I expect nothing to happen and 10 years from now we will be lungi dance about importing Batteries for $ Billion and lack of manufacturing...

[Katare]

Solar cell manufacturing is environmentally unfriendly, hydrofluoric acid, silicon tetrachloride, arsenic pollution happen due to manufacture of solar cell. I for one would prefer the Chinese brothers manufacturing and we buying dirt cheap

HF and SiCl4 are both very common industrial chemicals in semiconductor industry and not of any significant pollution concern that I know of. Without SiCl4/TiCl4 and HF there would not be much of semiconductor industry left. The polluting chemicals, mostly Ozone depleting and GH gases (with very long half life) were CFCs which have been largely eliminated now. All active chemicals are dangerous but these would react with water and other minerals to form natural salts and inert oxides like sand and that is why they are used everywhere and considered relatively safe chemicals from pollution POV.

Where is the arsenic coming from?

[Rishirishi]

Rishi,

I simply don't think the general India population has that level of capital to invest. India will remain utilty scale Solar/Wind dominated.
-------------------------------

Indian solar manufacturing is not to scale or the required automation to compete.

There was a report from NRDC a few months ago that could be reduced to the following.

20,000MW of Solar per annum. Jobs -

- 45,000 Jobs in manufacturing w/ ~ 20,000 in cell/module manufacture. (Cell/Module manufacture has very high automation)
- 120,000 in Engineering,Construction, Management, etc.
- 20,000 Jobs permanent in maintenance.

The question becomes are you willing to risk ~ 150,000 jobs in everything else to install tariffs and try to create 20,000 jobs in the cell/module space and go against China which has the scale? So far all countries have swallowed their pride.... ..even India, keep in mind we have not challenged the WTO rule on domestic content, which is what is allowing this solar cost decline party to continue in India. Wouldn't take much to kill it like in the past.

Which brings us to, Li Ion manufacture. This not yet dominated by any one manufacturer. India could potentially pour subsidies into this sector and take over the world market by driving down cost.

But I expect nothing to happen and 10 years from now we will be lungi dance about importing Batteries for $ Billion and lack of manufacturing...

All the capital is not required upfront. Loans are available. Rooftop solar panels produce free electricity without distribution costs (which is huge). A system that costs 5 lacks will only cost Rs 4800 per month in EMI. It will produce about 3000 units per month, over a 20 year period. EMI will be eaten by inflation and the electricity cost will be lowered, next to nothing.

Do the numbers and you will be amazed how profitable it will be with battery costs of approx 30dollars per KW.

[Rishirishi]

India to add more than 1GWh of lithium-ion battery assembly capacity this year

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/india-to-add-more-than-1gwh-of-lithium-ion-battery-assembly-capacity-this-y

[guru.shetty]

Audi (as part of Volkswagen group) has the ability to negotiate a very good deal with lithium ion battery cell manufacturers. According to the below linked report, they seem to have negotiated a price of $110/kwh for 2019. Mind you, this looks like battery cell price and not battery pack price. Usually battery packs add a 30% cost over the cells.

http://insideevs.com/audis-ev-batteries-cost-e100kwh/

This price is a 25% drop from the 2015 prices that GM negotiated with LG chem.

http://insideevs.com/gm-chevrolet-bolt- ... oves-3500/

Though Tesla hasn't disclosed its costs this year, it aims to reach $100/kwh battery pack cost by 2020.

Apparently, all the raw-materials needed for the current battery packs come up to $80/kwh. So depending on the efficiency of the factory, you get the final price. So there is a floor of $80/kwh right now.

[Theo_Fidel]

[b]India to add more than 1GWh of lithium-ion battery assembly capacity this year

Rishi, This is what we tried with Solar BTW.

While China was installing Capacity for 50,000 MW per year we tried to put in 1,000 MW, of Panel assembly. Most components were imported. The lack of scale put the entire industry on life support and essentially dead right now.

Just for reference the TESLA factory plans for 35 GWH first year and China has a single company planning 50 GWH manufacturing. Go big or go home....

[SBajwa]

question! Since stored power in batteries is DC., does it needs to be converted to AC while transmitting it? How do you transfer it? (apart from physically moving the batteries from one place to another).

[guru.shetty]

question! Since stored power in batteries is DC., does it needs to be converted to AC while transmitting it? How do you transfer it? (apart from physically moving the batteries from one place to another).

You need an inverter if you want to transmit battery stored electricity to AC. Same thing with solar panels. They generate DC and you need to convert them to AC.

Prof Ashok Jhunjunwala from IIT Madras (who currently spearheads India's EV transformation centre in the union govt) has pioneered the idea of a DC micro-grid. As part of it, the govt is ordering a lot of DC equipment like fans, lights etc.

http://www.thebetterindia.com/103887/so ... ectricity/

[Shameek]

question! Since stored power in batteries is DC., does it needs to be converted to AC while transmitting it? How do you transfer it? (apart from physically moving the batteries from one place to another).

There are many companies that sell Solar Inverters for commercial and residential purposes. SMA is one example. In many European cities, residents have solar panels on their roofs and can sell excess capacity to the grid.

[Theo_Fidel]

Meanwhile Offshore Wind Technology is rapidly sliding down the cost curve. Down to ~6 cents Euro a kwh. Or ~ to about Rs 3.50/kwh

http://www.offshorewind.biz/2017/04/13/ ... ction-bid/

Germany’s Bundesnetzagentur has selected three offshore wind projects by DONG Energy and one project by EnBW in the first auction for grid connections and funding for existing offshore wind farm projects, with at least one of the developers offering the lowest price bid of 0.00 Euro cents per kilowatt-hour.

There is enough offshore wind between Mumbai and Bay of Khambat to essentially power all of India. Roughly 200,000 sqkm of less than 300 feet deep water. Say only 100,000 sqkm is developed. At a density of say 10 MW/sqkm this would work out to total capacity of about 1000,000 MW. GULP! At a capacity factor of 40%, this works out to average of about 400,000 mwh. Well over our daily peaks in demand. This is less than 10% of our off shore area and not even the best wind resource, which is actually off TN.

The Europeans have cunningly monopolized this technology and have worked out all the components. Essentially the entire world, even China, US & Japan is forced to hire their construction teams to access the technology.

One key component is this beast. It is called the "WindCarrier' Fred Olsen "Brave Tern". It is called a Carrier because, yes it rivals an aircraft carrier in size and weight, yet it can put down its 300 feet long feet and huff and puff itself and all its equipment out of the ocean! It then proceeds to hike up the tower and all the blades and also it can carry all the towers and blades for 6 Wind turbines at a time. It can do 1 Wind turbine per day in good conditions. The Europeans plan to to put up 15-25 MW wind turbines in the North Sea and Baltic with this beast and several larger "Wind Carriers" under construction. Enough to more than power the EU electricity needs, essentially for ever. Only EU has this technology and even the Americans are impressed.

Some day we may have to steal one for our own needs... ..Verily German Teutonic quiet stealth and efficiency... ...One can feel what Valerians Legions must have felt like as they were exterminated with quiet quick thrusts...

There is a video at the end for this fantastic beast in operation

[Mort Walker]

Theoji,

Offshore wind turbines are not rated beyond Category 1 storms. The places these are being put do not experience the cyclones that are common in the Indian ocean and Arabian Sea. These off shore wind turbines will suffer permanent damage in Category 2 storms.

[JTull]

Theoji,

Offshore wind turbines are not rated beyond Category 1 storms. The places these are being put do not experience the cyclones that are common in the Indian ocean and Arabian Sea. These off shore wind turbines will suffer permanent damage in Category 2 storms.

Simple google reveals wind farms are usually rated for Cat 3 or higher.

North Sea does not have a particularly pleasant weather and there several wind farms on the western shores.

Found this interesting article. Link

[Mort Walker]

^^^If you could point to specific examples? There is one large off shore wind farm being built off the US eastern seaboard which must shut down in a Category 1 storm. From your own link:

Today operators shut off and lock down turbines when winds reach about 125 kph (78 mph). Once winds surpass 180 kph (120 mph), the borderline between a category 2 and category 3 hurricane (Katrina’s winds were 190 kph when the storm struck New Orleans), turbines will likely sustain damage. Although Jacobson says the power dissipation of the wind farms should keep winds below those levels, engineers at places such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory are studying how to strengthen turbine towers and blades.

It doesn't mean you can't do off shore wind farms, but you have to figure in the cost of repair in to KwHr price.

[nandakumar]

The problem with Ashok Jhunjunwala approach is this. He has an idea which is just short of MNC technology in terms of output. But he persuades the powers that be that what he has is what the country needs. The newspapers give a big build up. The Govt is paralysed into taking any decision. The way he strung BSNL along into not investing in GSM technology in 1999 on the specious plea that that all that BSNL needed was was Wirless in Local Loop (his technology) had the effect of setting it back by at least two years.

[Mort Walker]

nandakumar,

You posted in the wrong thread. It should go in the telecom thread.

[Mort Walker]

Disha,

I can't believe that utilities in CA are charging you nearly $0.44/kWHr for summer time. That seems way too high. Here in the southwest, the last month has been very hot and our family has used 2131 kWHrs at the summer time rate of $0.089/kWHr including fees + taxes. Power generation is mostly from natural gas and some wind. Texas has a per capita income of $50K/annual. Assuming 400 kWHr per person per month. That puts electric power at less than 0.9% of per capita income. In India we are paying way too much.

[Mort Walker]

Here is India's installed capacity for May 2017. Over 330 GWe:

MAY 2017 INSTALLED CAPACITY FROM CEA

Notice that thermal is going up.

[Theo_Fidel]

^^^If you could point to specific examples? There is one large off shore wind farm being built off the US eastern seaboard which must shut down in a Category 1 storm. From your own link:

As pointed out they are designed for the North sea which not noted for beatific weather. So far no damaged turbines have been reported. There was a report of 145 kmph winds during a low, no damage...

They Turn off @ cat 1, not get damaged. Nothing man made can survive without some damage in Cat 2-3.

It not like we are not building power plants on coasts over the fear of an occasional cyclone. These things come and go. We rebuilt, life goes on.... Wind turbines are actually lot easier to repair as you can just unbolt the damaged piece and replace.

I'm a little curious why you are worried about weather damage?

[Theo_Fidel]

The problem with Ashok Jhunjunwala approach is this. He has an idea which is just short of MNC technology in terms of output. But he persuades the powers that be that what he has is what the country needs. The newspapers give a big build up. The Govt is paralysed into taking any decision. The way he strung BSNL along into not investing in GSM technology in 1999 on the specious plea that that all that BSNL needed was was Wirless in Local Loop (his technology) had the effect of setting it back by at least two years.

Nandakumar,

This is not unusual anywhere in the world. There are always people pushing their own pet technology. Nothing wrong in this.

This DC is sounds cool but it really looks to be as expensive as putting in A/C. There don’t seem to be any efficiency or cost gains. He says it will stop stealing of power, but you don’t knee cap yourself so you can avoid getting to the ATM and potential getting robbed. No one is going to put in an alternate scheme when everyone else has grid A/C. power. Why this second class system. Either everyone move to the DC or stay on AC and cover everyone. Rural electric is always subsidized all around the world. Not going to change in India

WRT the DC 48 his strategy may not work for several reasons.

- Why DC 48, why not DC 12v which the most common appliance voltage.
- He wants to address load shedding which is a temporary phenomena, India's growing pains.
- Converting from 240 volt AC to 48 volt DC at the transformer will causes losses on the utility side. Why would any utility ever do this?
- DC 48 volts will lose even more power in the 200 feet from transformer to appliance. Why bother?
- In effect he wants to duplicate effort with low volume, efficiency and high cost on the appliance side.

WRT BSNL it made a wrong bet, BSNL needs to go the way of the dodo. The problem in India is that we refuse to bankrupt these zombie entities that made mistakes. There is enough competition now that quickly bankrupting a company will have little consequence but there seems to be a deep reluctance in some circles to make mistakes, pay the price and try again.

Look at the drama over the Adani/TATA imported coal projects that are essentially equity zero right now. Bankrupt them and move on.

[Mort Walker]

As pointed out they are designed for the North sea which not noted for beatific weather. So far no damaged turbines have been reported. There was a report of 145 kmph winds during a low, no damage...

They Turn off @ cat 1, not get damaged. Nothing man made can survive without some damage in Cat 2-3.

It not like we are not building power plants on coasts over the fear of an occasional cyclone. These things come and go. We rebuilt, life goes on.... Wind turbines are actually lot easier to repair as you can just unbolt the damaged piece and replace.

I'm a little curious why you are worried about weather damage?

A cyclone has strong wind shear. Straight line winds are another issue and I doubt North Sea has experienced significant wind shear where it tears stuff apart. If repair and replacement of turbines has to happen every 2-3 years, it makes the power much more costly. Rebuild and life goes on is all fine, but it takes real money to do this.

[Theo_Fidel]

No saar,

Tornado has wind shear,

Cyclone/Hurricane is straight line winds. Even at Eye wall. I know this having lived through several cyclones/hurricanes.

I think you are concerned about nothing. There are reasons to question offshore wind, this is not one of them.

[SBajwa]

by Theo_Fidel
This DC is sounds cool but it really looks to be as expensive as putting in A/C. There don’t seem to be any efficiency or cost gains. He says it will stop stealing of power, but you don’t knee cap yourself so you can avoid getting to the ATM and potential getting robbed. No one is going to put in an alternate scheme when everyone else has grid A/C. power. Why this second class system. Either everyone move to the DC or stay on AC and cover everyone. Rural electric is always subsidized all around the world. Not going to change in India

Correct! When Tesla created A/C., he had to fight with Edison who created D/C. Edison wanted small D/C stations all over cities and even created this in Buffalo, NY. Tesla eventually won proving to the US government that A/C is better to transmit. Anyhow!!

D/C to supplement A/C (when not available) is fine.
Do we have such appliances in our villages? Refrigerators in Villages will not only save large amount of food that is wasted every season but also give more money to farmers. Recently I was in my village in punjab where my cousin took as many peas as he can for personal use and then just ploughed the 5 acres as price of peas was too low., losing three months of work.

http://www.geinnovations.net/solarrefrigerator.html