Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Jun 2017 12:46

Past time for India to set up a large mission in Taiwan for trade,culture,etc. which in reality is a virtual embassy.We need to send a high-powered trade delegation to Taipei and negotiate the sale of desi weaponry to Taipei,including desi sub-tech which Taiwan desperately requires.U-209 sub tech was compromised by German decades ago when ti gave the S.Africans the drgs of our subs.Therefore we can pass on what we feel does not endanger any agreements.Indian cos.like L*T can make "boilers" (sub hulls) for Taiwanese subs.I'm sure that there is much sub etch we've developed on our won which does not have origins in either Russia, Germany or France which we cans ell.Taiwan is flushed with funds and could buy our SAMs,tactical missiles like Prahar,Prithvi,etc. They've also developed on their own a lot of good weaponry and are world leaders in chip manufacturing,etc.

(Taiwan overtakes South Korea as top chip-maker in integrated circuit wafer fab capacity with 3.55 mil. units)_

Here's a good report on the future of Taiwan's def. industry with aircraft and subs two of the priorities.Perhaps we could even tout the LCA,Arjun to it.
If China objects,the upturned finger to "XI Gins" as it is giving Pak it's entire kitchen cabinet .

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Jun 2017 14:05

US arms sales to Taiwan will hurt Beijing-Washington ties, says China ambassador - Straits Times

The United States' latest move to sell Taiwan US$1.42 billion (S$2 billion) in arms - as well as sanctions against Chinese companies - would undermine mutual confidence between the US and China, said China's ambassador to the US.

The weapons package, announced on late on Thursday (June 29), includes technical support for early warning radar, high-speed anti-radiation missiles, torpedoes and missile components.

It comes just a day after a proposal by a US Senate panel to allow American warships to call at Taiwan's ports.

Also on Thursday, Washington stepped up pressure on Beijing to rein in North Korea with new sanctions on a Chinese bank accused of laundering money for North Korean companies. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the administration was moving to cut off the Bank of Dandong from US financial markets in an effort to block millions of dollars of transactions that funnel money into North Korea for use in its weapons programmes.

Under the sanctions, US citizens also will be generally prohibited from doing business with Sun Wei and Ri Song Hyok, who are accused of establishing and running front companies on behalf of North Korea, and Dalian Global Unity Shipping, which is accused of transporting 700,000 tons of freight annually, including coal and steel products, between China and North Korea.

US officials said the weapons package and sanctions were unrelated and stressed that the administration was not targeting China.

Ambassador Cui Tiankai, however, said the actions would hurt bilateral relations between the two countries.

Speaking to reporters at an embassy reception in Washington, Mr Cui said: "All these actions - sanctions against Chinese companies and especially arms sales to Taiwan - will certainly undermine the mutual confidence between the two sides and runs counter to the spirit of the Mar-a-Lago summit."

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a summit in Florida in April.

China sees self-ruling Taiwan as a breakaway province and has been increasing its military presence and putting pressure on its diplomatic allies to isolate the island.

Thanking the US for its decision on the weapons package, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence said on Friday (June 30) that it will "enhance our air, sea combat capability and early warning ability, enhance the overall defence capability".

The Presidential Office also said in a statement that the weapons system "increases Taiwan's confidence and ability to maintain the status quo of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait".

"On this basis, we will continue to seek constructive dialogue with Beijing, and promote positive developments in cross-strait relations. We believe that such efforts will be welcomed by the international community," the statement said.

It added that Taiwan will continue to increase its defence investments including its indigenous defence industries and research.

The sale, which was approved and announced by the US State Department on Thursday (US time), requires congressional approval and can move forward within a month.

It would be the first arms sales to Taiwan under President Trump and the first since a US$1.83 billion sale that his predecessor Barack Obama announced in December 2015.

The weapons package this time is smaller than previous deals, including a US$5.9 billion package offered by Mr Obama in 2011. It also does not include advanced weapons that Taiwan has expressed interest in getting such as the F-35 fighter jet.

The US is Taiwan's only major political ally and its sole arms supplier, and weapons sales to Taiwan have repeatedly upset Beijing.

Expressing "sincere thanks", Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence said the latest arms sales shows that the US "attaches great importance to China's anti-security" and paves the way for both Taiwan and the US to continue to "consolidate the security partnership to contribute to long-term regional stability".

The ministry added it hopes to start discussing with its US counterpart "as soon as possible" about the details of the sale such as the budget and timing.

A US State Department official said the latest package primarily represented "upgrades to existing defence capabilities aimed at converting current legacy systems from analog to digital."

US State Department spokesman Heather Nauert told reporters that the sales showed US "support for Taiwan's ability to maintain a sufficient self-defence capability", but stressed that there was no change to the US' long-standing "one China" policy, which recognises Beijing, not Taipei.

US officials said in March the administration was crafting a big arms sale to Taiwan, but such talk died down as Mr Trump sought to persuade Beijing to do more to rein in North Korea's nuclear and missile programmes, an increasing threat to the US.

The Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday voted to allow regular stops by US naval vessels as part of an annual defence-policy measure. In a bipartisan 21-6 vote, the panel approved re-establishing "regular ports of call by the US Navy at Kaohsiung or any other suitable ports in Taiwan and permits US Pacific Command to receive ports of call by Taiwan".

The new policy also directs the Defence Department to help Taiwan develop its "indigenous undersea-warfare capabilities, including vehicles and sea mines" and calls for strengthening strategic cooperation.

It is, however, not clear how the White House views the Senate committee's decision, which will have to be ratified by US lawmakers in Congress first.

If given the green light, the new policy breaks with a nearly 40-year-long diplomatic practice when US cut formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 and recognised Beijing as the government of "one China", while keeping friendly non-official ties with Taipei.

China's foreign and defence ministries slammed the US proposal, saying it "concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity".

China has more than 1,500 missiles aimed at Taiwan, according to Taiwan's Defence Ministry.

Taiwan wants to build eight submarines to bolster its current fleet of four ageing vessels, in response to China's increased military threat around its waters. In January, a group of Chinese warships led by the Liaoning aircraft carrier entered the Taiwan Strait.

chola · Post by **chola** » 30 Jun 2017 14:53

Philip wrote:Past time for India to set up a large mission in Taiwan for trade,culture,etc. which in reality is a virtual embassy.We need to send a high-powered trade delegation to Taipei and negotiate the sale of desi weaponry to Taipei,including desi sub-tech which Taiwan desperately requires.U-209 sub tech was compromised by German decades ago when ti gave the S.Africans the drgs of our subs.Therefore we can pass on what we feel does not endanger any agreements.Indian cos.like L*T can make "boilers" (sub hulls) for Taiwanese subs.I'm sure that there is much sub etch we've developed on our won which does not have origins in either Russia, Germany or France which we cans ell.Taiwan is flushed with funds and could buy our SAMs,tactical missiles like Prahar,Prithvi,etc. They've also developed on their own a lot of good weaponry and are world leaders in chip manufacturing,etc.

(Taiwan overtakes South Korea as top chip-maker in integrated circuit wafer fab capacity with 3.55 mil. units)_

Here's a good report on the future of Taiwan's def. industry with aircraft and subs two of the priorities.Perhaps we could even tout the LCA,Arjun to it.
If China objects,the upturned finger to "XI Gins" as it is giving Pak it's entire kitchen cabinet .

Nice idea Filipov but it contains no sense of the geo-political situation.

1) Taiwan already has access to Unkil's weapons. Among the reasons they get some but not all of Unkil's weaponry look at 2 and 3 below,

2) Taiwan sends somewhere around 70% of its exports to the PRC. Also about a million of its citizens live in Cheen, so it buys just enough military hardware to defend but not upset the economic applecart with the PRC,

3) At the end of the day, it is still a chini dominated (culturally) nation that is, if nothing else, rife with PRC spies. Every imported system in Taiwan eventually finds it way into chicom hands.

4) Taiwan officially still espouses the same claims over our Northeast (and the SCS as the PRC -- but Taiwan also claims Mongolia.)

The difference between Taiwan/PRC and Pakistan/India is the former are "enemies" that economically tied together while the latter are simply enemies. We won't be able to show Cheen the middle finger with Taiwan unless we are able and willing to provide Taiwan with the same market and market penetration as the PRC.

Our target in the Far East for exports should be Vietnam not Taiwan.

But all for upping the trade mission for an embassy if Taiwan allows it. The PRC punishment will be on Taiwan not India. Still, I have niggling feelings about Taiwan over its claims emanating from the Chini imperial system and its still tight economic embrace with the PRC. Maybe after they declared formal independence which will result in a complete break and sever the economic tentacles from the PRC.

Akshay D · Post by **Akshay D** » 30 Jun 2017 15:01

Alright, I'm going to try and take a stab at clearing things up a bit. Most of the reports in the media and the journo's themselves seem to be mixing up the two areas. Maybe I am wrong as well.. but anyway

.

The doklam (or donglang) plateau is the disputed region in the west of bhutan. The Dok-la or pass is in the southernmost part of the chumbi valley - which also sees to be bhutanese territory under chinese control.

To the top-right is the doklam plateau (~10 km wide). To the south, in red, is the part of bhutan under chinese control - the orange circle is the dok-la.

The S204 is their main highway into the southern part of the chumbi valley. This road is located bang next to the disputed area. One of their possible garrison towns is on the highway and ~ 5km from the bhutan border.

It would make sense for china to grab the doklam plateau since it gives them the depth they lack in this particular area. It also makes sense since the nearest RBA/IMTRAT detachment is at damthang, barely 15-20 kms away by road.

In the doklam plateau, china already has a couple of well developed roads. They enter from the west and the north. The point, on the plateau, where the roads stop are ~ 3km from the border as perceived by china. There is barely any infra in Bhutan, north of Damthang.

It's just a 150 sq.km but If they lost this part and the use of the S204, their situation in the southern chumbi valley would be untenable. Looks well set for a pincer move.

p.s: Sorry about the large images. Cant access my regular image hoster from work.

chola · Post by **chola** » 30 Jun 2017 15:11

Dealing with the chini threat means dealing with a PRC military that likes to emit a foreboding sense of fear but one that assiduously avoids fighting for real.

So how do you deal with a threat that doesn't fight but attempts to change facts on the ground during peace time?

You make it go to war. India is perfectly placed geographically to make the PRC fight and trash it. Bhutan is perfect for this endeavor.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Jun 2017 15:41

Chinese troops entered Doklam area in attempt to construct road: MEA - ToI

India on Friday told China that its attempt to construct a road in the Doklam area in Bhutan will cause a "significant change of status quo", is a "violation of a 2012 understanding", and will lead to "serious security implications."

"On 16 June, a PLA (People's Liberation Army) construction party entered the Doklam area and attempted to construct a road. It is our understanding that a Royal Bhutan Army patrol attempted to dissuade them from this unilateral activity," said India, refuting China's June 26 claim that Indian border troops crossed the boundary line in the Sikkim sector of the China-India boundary {The fact is that Indian troops did not cross the Sikkim sector} .

Indian soldiers+ as well as soldiers from the Royal Bhutan Army urged the PLA soldiers "to desist from changing the status quo", to no avail, said a statement on Friday from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). {Exactly as we had suggested here}

"India is deeply concerned at the recent Chinese actions and has conveyed to the Chinese Government that such construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for India," said the MEA's statement.

India's strong statement follows Bhutan's demarche to China asking Beijing to restore status quo by stopping the construction work immediately.

India said that in 2012, it and China agreed that the tri-junction boundary points between them and a third country will be decided upon in consultation with the concerned countries.

"Any attempt, therefore, to unilaterally determine tri-junction points is in violation of this understanding," said the MEA's statement.

It is now very clear that in addition to India having a responsibility to protect and secure the soveeignty and borders of Bhutan, India also has, by virtue of the India-China Agreement of c. 2012, the legal right to stop the Chinese activity of road & rail building into the southern end of the Chumbi Valley. Besides, the Royal Bhutanes government has also issued a demarche to China to stop its activities.

China continuing to claim that the Indian troops violated the border in the Sikkim sector is actually a twisting of facts because the incident took place in Bhutan and Sikkim sector is peaceful but for the PLA venting out its anger there by destroying some bunkers there and stopping the Kailash yatris. China wanted to behave exactly like a Bull in a Chinese Shop.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Jun 2017 16:03

when the world sleeps , chinese creep forward
when the world is awake , chinese sleep

the only way control the situation in sikkim is to grab a suitable piece of land say 5km deep and squat on it and dare them to escalate or else back away from Doklam following which with great fanfare our BRDO must go in and demolish whatever they have put up so far....

Amoghvarsha · Post by **Amoghvarsha** » 30 Jun 2017 16:09

SSridhar wrote:Chinese troops entered Doklam area in attempt to construct road: MEA - ToI
India on Friday told China that its attempt to construct a road in the Doklam area in Bhutan will cause a "significant change of status quo", is a "violation of a 2012 understanding", and will lead to "serious security implications."

"On 16 June, a PLA (People's Liberation Army) construction party entered the Doklam area and attempted to construct a road. It is our understanding that a Royal Bhutan Army patrol attempted to dissuade them from this unilateral activity," said India, refuting China's June 26 claim that Indian border troops crossed the boundary line in the Sikkim sector of the China-India boundary {The fact is that Indian troops did not cross the Sikkim sector} .

Indian soldiers+ as well as soldiers from the Royal Bhutan Army urged the PLA soldiers "to desist from changing the status quo", to no avail, said a statement on Friday from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). {Exactly as we had suggested here}

"India is deeply concerned at the recent Chinese actions and has conveyed to the Chinese Government that such construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for India," said the MEA's statement.

India's strong statement follows Bhutan's demarche to China asking Beijing to restore status quo by stopping the construction work immediately.

India said that in 2012, it and China agreed that the tri-junction boundary points between them and a third country will be decided upon in consultation with the concerned countries.

"Any attempt, therefore, to unilaterally determine tri-junction points is in violation of this understanding," said the MEA's statement.
It is now very clear that in addition to India having a responsibility to protect and secure the soveeignty and borders of Bhutan, India also has, by virtue of the India-China Agreement of c. 2012, the legal right to stop the Chinese activity of road & rail building into the southern end of the Chumbi Valley. Besides, the Royal Bhutanes government has also issued a demarche to China to stop its activities.

China continuing to claim that the Indian troops violated the border in the Sikkim sector is actually a twisting of facts because the incident took place in Bhutan and Sikkim sector is peaceful but for the PLA venting out its anger there by destroying some bunkers there and stopping the Kailash yatris. China wanted to behave exactly like a Bull in a Chinese Shop.

Sridhar saar
Do we actually have an agreement with Bhutan where their defense is our responsibility?Please link me to it.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 30 Jun 2017 16:49

chola wrote:Dealing with the chini threat means dealing with a PRC military that likes to emit a foreboding sense of fear but one that assiduously avoids fighting for real.

So how do you deal with a threat that doesn't fight but attempts to change facts on the ground during peace time?

You make it go to war. India is perfectly placed geographically to make the PRC fight and trash it. Bhutan is perfect for this endeavor.

Absolutely. A short and brief border war will see PLA getting thrashed mercilessly if our forces are given a free hand and suitable mandate. That said, if it drags out the results are unclear. While anyone can start a war, nobody can with 100% certainty control how it will end.

The best course of action is to enter into another equally strategic location and enter a bargain with Cheen so that PLA can climb down from its high horse without loss of face to its domestic audience as a reciprocal measure of confidence building.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 30 Jun 2017 17:17

Coincidentally happened to be in the Gangtok area the week of June 16th and access to Nathu La pass was blocked almost all week for tourists. The weather was perfect till late in the week, when the showers were heavy at least on the west Sikkim side. This issue must have been brewing for some time, and did not begin on the 16th as reported in the press.

In any case, what leverage can India have with a reverse land grab elsewhere around the Chumbi valley, other than the slopes of Dokam La on the Sikkim side in the south. That area does give a straight line of sight if held by the Chinese to the plains below. Check it out in google maps with 3D view.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Jun 2017 17:50

Amoghvarsha wrote:Do we actually have an agreement with Bhutan where their defense is our responsibility?Please link me to it.

I don't think that question can be answered. The answer can only be inferred. We do have a Friendship Treaty and that is based on the British-Bhutan Treaty.

chola · Post by **chola** » 30 Jun 2017 21:32

schinnas wrote:
chola wrote:Dealing with the chini threat means dealing with a PRC military that likes to emit a foreboding sense of fear but one that assiduously avoids fighting for real.

So how do you deal with a threat that doesn't fight but attempts to change facts on the ground during peace time?

You make it go to war. India is perfectly placed geographically to make the PRC fight and trash it. Bhutan is perfect for this endeavor.
Absolutely. A short and brief border war will see PLA getting thrashed mercilessly if our forces are given a free hand and suitable mandate. That said, if it drags out the results are unclear. While anyone can start a war, nobody can with 100% certainty control how it will end.

The best course of action is to enter into another equally strategic location and enter a bargain with Cheen so that PLA can climb down from its high horse without loss of face to its domestic audience as a reciprocal measure of confidence building.

I've written before how the PRC is the perfect opponent for Bharat as we rise:

1) SYRE, it is a civilization of rice-eating farmers and shopkeepers not warriors. A war over territory that is not essential to its core in the East will not go full-blown or nooklear,

2) rational and mercantile, the PRC's power is based on trade and manufacturing so long term warfare destroys this foundation of their power. If war is going badly over barren rocks, I believe they will come to terms quickly. Also unlike irrational pakis, I do not see chinis blowing themselves up over losing Aksai Chin

3) perceived as a great power, what could be a better opponent than a soft non-warrior nation that is also a P5? Three wars clobbering the porkis gained us nothing in terms of respect as a great power. Pakistan is a lousy opponent reputationwise. Cheen on the other hand carries weight. We crush them and we elevate ourselves into the greatest military power in Asia and by default the second greatest power in the world and a peer of the US.

4) limited downside, if for some insane babu-related reason we lose a war where we enjoy major troop and material advantages across the board, it will not be catastrophic. Geography means it won't be much worse than 1962. They won't be in New Dehli for certain.

I see it as a rather low risk affair that can have an Epochal effect on india rise to great powerdom if pursued correctly.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 30 Jun 2017 21:44

SSridhar wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:Do we actually have an agreement with Bhutan where their defense is our responsibility?Please link me to it.
I don't think that question can be answered. The answer can only be inferred. We do have a Friendship Treaty and that is based on the British-Bhutan Treaty.

there was this one page agreement . it was doing round on net few years back.As per 1949 treaty, Bhutan agreed to GUIDED by India in foreign ad defence matters.

Overall I was under impression that if Chinese are serious about war,they are going to wake up some sleeping cmmie cells to destabilize us internally in big way

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 30 Jun 2017 22:21

Yes indeed. China will know India is serious about war when there are blasts not in the Himalayan plateaus but in Kashgar and Lhasa

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 30 Jun 2017 22:49

Another potential benefit, Chola, would be to kill the monkey to frighten the chicken

nam · Post by **nam** » 30 Jun 2017 22:52

The fact that the Chinese are trying to grab Bhutan land and bully them and India coming to Bhutan's aid should be dholo shoro se publicised.

Smaller Asian countries do not trust India to come to their aid against a bigger adversary. This has caused them to either surrender to the Chinese or fall in to US arms.

Showing that India coming to the aid of a smaller ally and standing against a big bad China is a great PR, while on the other side of the world, China just dumps some sand and takes over part of the sea and no one is able to do anything.

So either the Chinese back off, loose face or initiate action. In action If they loose that will unthinkable agony!

If they win, it will kick off round 2 of Indian military expansion ... like did us a favour after 62

Head I win, tail you loose.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 30 Jun 2017 23:05

sanjaykumar wrote:Yes indeed. China will know India is serious about war when there are blasts not in the Himalayan plateaus but in Kashgar and Lhasa

THIS!

Non state Islamic insurgents have been threatening to take Jeehard to China for close to a decade.
We need to encourage some Bakis to slowly walk toward their tarrel and highel fliend with backpack a la plastique.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 30 Jun 2017 23:07

Bhai If the Chinese back down in the face of our resolve India will not need to publicize it any further. Given that the face-off is not a secret the news will make its way to every embassy in India. You will not need to frontpage it on TOIlet. The diplomatic community is very small and connected.

Only if you want to impress the mangos you go the TOIlet way.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 30 Jun 2017 23:20

I have this Tibetan guy who knows something we never imagined

- Most of chinese solders facing india are of Tibetans. Only officers are Hans. Apparently Hans need more time (then indians) to get used to the high altitude.
-India officers often go to Tibetian villages near border (to drink tea). Vilagers are friendly to them. Indians give them pics of Dalai lama. It is normal to see Dalai lama's pics scattered all over the place and Chinese trying to collect them and burn.
- In villages everybody has to put Chinese flag on houses or they are tortured.
-Hans are encouraged to marry Tibetan girls
-collective punishment is given to the family for problem created by one member
-Many tibetans are taught Hindi or other Northern Indian languages

chola · Post by **chola** » 30 Jun 2017 23:44

Not only Tibetans but Uighurs since Aksai Chin borders Xinjiang, from the Chindu:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 946400.ece

If the Chinese veterans of 1962 are a forgotten lot, even less due has been paid to the minority Tibetans and Uighurs from Xinjiang who were conscripted into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ahead of the war.

Many would lay down their lives for a government that was, at the time, facing widespread unrest and opposition to its policies as it struggled to consolidate its still unsure control over both regions.

Not surprising since the USSR did the same thing with their minorities -- cannon fodder.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 01 Jul 2017 00:11

Most of chinese solders facing india are of Tibetans.

This is not good.

Further to the one child policy:

China is the largest military with a majority of only children in its military. Children from the one child generation "made up more than half of the force" by 2006, which is an increase from "20 percent a decade earlier” (Thompson). The People's Liberation Army also allows only children to fulfill shorter service requirements, as it understands that one-child soldiers "are often the sole support for parents and grandparents" (Thompson). Soldiers who are only children desire to leave the military earlier in order to seek better employment opportunities to provide for their aging family members. With a great number of soldiers serving shorter terms, the army has to keep up its recruiting efforts to maintain its size. Since soldiers stay in the army for shorter periods and new recruits are continually being brought in, "many units will likely maintain low levels of readiness" (Thompson). Thompson also says that "only-child recruits are not as tough" as their counterparts with more than one sibling which may be the result of the lifestyle of these "Little Emperors," which often consists of a spoiled childhood with constant attention from both parents and all four grandparents (Thompson). While the one-child policy has impacted the military negatively from a domestic standpoint, it has lessened the threat China poses internationally.

http://alexatsintolas.weebly.com/military.html

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Jul 2017 00:38

Everything is lined up for Bharat to fight a nice, profitable war with Cheen.

Think about this:

The PLA had not fought in four decades, the one child policy pretty much negates any incentive for them to start one now.

They have clearly embarked on a strategy of intimidation through mass manufacture of equipment not actual military action. The US Navy said China cannot possibly train enough men to staff the ships and aircraft heading off the assembly lines and into their Navy and Air Force.

So what is their game plan? It is a gambit to change facts on the ground and during peacetime with an avalanche of hardware which is an effective strategy -- until you need to fight with the stuff.

The way you disrupt this game plan is actually giving them a fight.

All great rising powers had that signature fight (usually against power with a great reputation as a global force much weaker when its military was dissected.

Bismarck Germany became a major power during the Franco-Prussian War against a France that was a shell of itself after the Napoleon Era.

The US became a global power after crushing a doddering Spanish Empire and receiving the Philippines as a prize (we need to thank or curse this for Unkil's overwhelming presence in Asia today.)

Japan became a great power by crushing a corrupt Russian Empire in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905.

A war and victory over Cheen would propel us to the top of the heap in the same way. Right now, it is the acknowledged Number Two after the USA. But like Spain in 1898, the PRC's military far less formidable than its reputation.

And there is clearly a downside in NOT going to war and clipping the PRC at this time. Their printing press and manufacturing will eventually change the situation on the ground as long as there is peace for them to do what they do best. Without war, you are actually letting them win. Because eventually the sheer numbers of 12000-ton DDGs and 65000-ton carriers and J-2XX stealth fighters, etc. will influence the world around them if left to roam and deploy freely.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Jul 2017 00:48

Cho,Taiwan are also held on a short leash by Uncle Sam.Not everyyhing mil is given to them becos of the Us-Sino eco relationship.No sub tech,etc,why Taiwan has laid such great emphasis upon local defence R&D,esp sub and aicraft tech.They've made strides in missiles,but if you look at some of them,seem to be copies.

Yes,there will be suspicion of Chin superiority complex,but they've been under such domination over decades that survival is their basic instinct.Vietnam is a good ally,but a strong Indo -Taiwan relationship will hurt China and other nations may follow India's lead.Bullies like China are in reality cowards and must be confronted.

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Jul 2017 01:06

Philip wrote:Cho,Taiwan are also held on a short leash by Uncle Sam.Not everyyhing mil is given to them becos of the Us-Sino eco relationship.

Yes, if the US is swayed by economic relationship with Cheen then what about Taiwan, an export driven economy that dependent on the chini market?

Anyways, you go establish an embassy with Taiwan, Phillip. It might work, who knows? But I think you need to know mandarin.

And make sure they give up their claims on our borders first before you give them our sub tech (which one?)!

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Jul 2017 01:22

SriJoy wrote:^^
the key will be to shift blame to the Cheen in a decisive way. Right now, we need a defence deal with Bhutan in no ambiguous terms. Otherwise, such a short war may backfire on us, like Kargil did for Pakistan : if we are not looking for total war but a tactical one, we need the weight of world opinion on our side when the dust settles. Because we are both nuclear powers, world will go 'crap crap crap. stop now, now now!' And world will pressurize whichever side they see as being in the wrong.

Chinese realize this, which is why their media is very shrill on the issue.

This is where our reputation as passive, peace-loving followers of Mahatma Gandhi will come in handy.

Unless we do something blatant like an airborne assault on Lhasa practically anything we do on the borders would be seem as neutral if not chini-instigated. "Vegan followers of nonviolent resistance attacking the Dragon? No way, it must have the Red Army who fired first."

Unless the victory disease overwhelms our common sense and we try to detach all of Tibet, it won't each up in a massive war.

Picture a 1962 in reverse with us getting perhaps a little more on top of what we lost to smooth out the lines a bit. We would crush the small, out-of-breath PLA/PAP (Peoples Armed Police) contingent on our borders, rush to all the advantageous high grounds within a safe distance that can be covered by the IAF and declare an unilateral cease fire before their re-enforcements can be called up.

Most of the West and East Asia would most likely support us and they would actually put pressure on Cheen not to widen the war and affect trade.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 01 Jul 2017 05:25

^^Quite sure of that, IA won't be twiddling thumbs in last so many years. Fear is the biggest driver. Congoons anyways had the biggest fear after suave Nehru was choke slammed by uncouth mao.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 01 Jul 2017 05:26

Though a mongol yak herder who occasionally lets his yak graze over here may have a different perspective.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jul 2017 07:35

Border standoff: India warns of serious impact - Suhasini Haidar & Atul Aneja, The Hindu

China’s actions at the Doko La (Doklam) tri-junction in Sikkim between India, China and Bhutan have “serious security implications”, New Delhi warned on Friday, indicating that while talks have been ongoing between Indian and Chinese officials, there is no resolution yet to the standoff.

“India is deeply concerned at the recent Chinese actions and has conveyed to the Chinese Government that such construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for India,” said a government statement, the first since the tensions at the tri-junction were made public earlier this week.

Attempting to play down the situation, however, India also said it remained committed to finding a “peaceful resolution through dialogue” with China.

China reiterates demand

However Beijing, that has been unusually shrill in its comments over the issue, issued its fourth statement in as many days, demanding that India withdraw troops, and saying it was a “precondition for any meaningful dialogue”.

“The Indian troops trespassed the recognised and delineated boundary between China and India. So the most pressing issue is the withdrawal of troops into the Indian territory,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said on Friday, a day after releasing photographs that purported to show Indian troops on Chinese land.

Meanwhile Defence Minister Arun Jaitley spoke out at a conference organised by TV Today on Friday as well, saying “The situation in 1962 was different and the India of today is different,” in response to the Chinese statement telling New Delhi to “remember history” and the 1962 war.

Revealing the series of events that have unfolded over the past fortnight, the government said on June 16, a PLA team carrying construction equipment crossed into Bhutanese territory at Doko La over the Zom Cheri ridge and tried to begin building a road. When Bhutanese soldiers protested, India claims the Chinese soldiers pushed them back to their posts.

“In coordination with the Royal Government of Bhutan, Indian personnel, who were present at general area Doka La, approached the Chinese construction party and urged them to desist from changing the status quo,” the government said, although it denied the Chinese claim that Indian troops had transgressed into Chinese territory in the process.

Four days later, a border personnel meeting (BPM) was held at Nathu La and diplomats in Delhi and Beijing have been holding regular meetings with the respective foreign ministries in an effort to defuse the crisis. Bhutan and China have been similarly engaged. However, it is unlikely that the three countries will hold a trilateral unless tensions are visibly decreased.

There are several reasons for New Delhi’s growing concerns over the situation. The Chinese aggression came days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping had what officials called a “warm and cordial” meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, where they had even discussed the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra route through Sikkim, which now stands cancelled.

For Chinese troops to transgress over non-finalised borders in Sikkim and into Bhutanese territory is unprecedented, and is a violation of agreements with Bhutan from 1998 and 1999 as well as with India in 2012 to maintain the status quo, and causes special worries for the future. This is the only part of the India-China boundary that is considered “settled” between the two countries, and it was for this reason that China had opened out the motorable route for Indian pilgrims.

While Indian and Chinese troops have faced off at the LAC in Chumar and Depsang earlier, the Doko La episode is the most significant such face-off.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jul 2017 07:43

India does not want to lose any more territory and China does not want to appear weak.

IMO this basically means that if shooting starts China has to be willing for an escalation where logistics nodes are taken out. If China retaliates by hitting across the border it will escalate further. In this case India is simply holding on to its own territory (or territory that it is bound to help protect by treaty). China has to show its true intent - they fart about "peaceful rise" while salami slicing weaker states. Chinese rhetoric and their expectation that others should respect them will be tested. And I repeat a lot of single sons of elderly Chinese parents will die at the border. That is the CCPs problem. Not ours

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 01 Jul 2017 08:08

Anybody willing to guess what is the chinese end game here. I cannot see India agreeing to this encroachment, first because of our commitment to Bhutan, second due to the Siliguri corridor. That means China will have to soon downhill ski. The question is can they do so with H&D intact ? and will we help them maintain the H&D facade. The other question I have is, did the Chinese miscalculate this encroachment, did they think Bhutan would not raise the alarm or that India would dhoti shiver.

durairaaj · Post by **durairaaj** » 01 Jul 2017 08:15

Defense minister could have said Today's India is not only the India of 1962 but also not the India of 1950s, when we meekly stood by as the Hans took down the Tibet a peaceful country and destroyed its archives.

durairaaj · Post by **durairaaj** » 01 Jul 2017 08:25

Another interesting coincidence is the prediction of a clash between India and China in a report authored by Indian Army or some Indian defense think tank. It was published before 2007, i.e. before global economic downturn and Beijing olympics. I remember reading about it in BR back then.
The report predicted the year of clash will be 2017 and its after that work on Mountain Strike Corps got the impetus. It was mentioned in the report, year 2017 is the suitable time based on the population dynamics, economy growth and military investments by PRC.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jul 2017 08:39

Guddu wrote:Anybody willing to guess what is the chinese end game here. I cannot see India agreeing to this encroachment, first because of our commitment to Bhutan, second due to the Siliguri corridor. That means China will have to soon downhill ski. The question is can they do so with H&D intact ? and will we help them maintain the H&D facade.

I think that if the three sides announce that 'status quo ante' would be established and all three countries would engage in talks to resolve the dispute, then that would give a 'face-saver' to China. I think that this is what the Chinese side is also signalling by saying that the Indian troops must withdraw before any talks! But, the serious question is why did China escalate at this time at a place which India considers very sensitive? An incursion or jostling somewhere else is far less serious an incident than what China has attempted to do here. So, the 'face-saver formula' can bring some respite but the Chinese are not going to stop their incremental and illegal activities.

The other question I have is, did the Chinese miscalculate this encroachment, did they think Bhutan would not raise the alarm or that India would dhoti shiver.

No, the Chinese did not miscalculate, IMHO. Also, they know that the IA will not let go and will respond robustly. Such audacious actions put pressure on India and give China a bargaining card. For example, China claims what are certainly Bhutanese territories up north and then offers a package deal trading the Bhutanese territory for another piece of Bhutanese territory (Dokalam Plateau)

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Jul 2017 09:47

Goes without saying.No free lunch for Taipei,but the opportunity is today.Tomorrow may be too late.The two "T" cards must be used by us before they become irrelevant.Taiwan being a democracy will be far easier to negotiate with than the despotic PLA/Commie party.

We must outflank China both militarily and diplomatically,not always respond to its aggression.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Jul 2017 10:24

time is ripe to humiliate and punish china now that their paws are inside the cookie jar. we must not let this opp go to make them lose face. east asia is watching keenly.

whatever they have built in encroached areas must be demolished under the glare of NDTV cameras and Hindu reporter flown in for the kaal bhairav muhurtam and cheen squatters marched off at gunpoint back to their dens.,,if they resist then put them in gunny sacks and ship them to kolkatta POW camp and eventual handover to ICRC.

kaal bhairava is a manifestation of Shiva the original Yogi as pure annihilation

the time has come to unsheath our swords and hit the soft underbelly of the dlagon

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 01 Jul 2017 10:55

Singha wrote:time is ripe to humiliate and punish china now that their paws are inside the cookie jar. we must not let this opp go to make them lose face. east asia is watching keenly.

whatever they have built in encroached areas must be demolished under the glare of NDTV cameras and Hindu reporter flown in for the kaal bhairav muhurtam and cheen squatters marched off at gunpoint back to their dens.,,if they resist then put them in gunny sacks and ship them to kolkatta POW camp and eventual handover to ICRC.

kaal bhairava is a manifestation of Shiva the original Yogi as pure annihilation

the time has come to unsheath our swords and hit the soft underbelly of the dlagon

Absolutely. To the many such viewpoints expressed on these pages and why we should take on the Chinese, we have built in my opinion the best mountain warfare capability in the world. Thank Kashmir, Siachen, Ladakh and Arunachal for that. We shall crawl up the hills like army ants and fell the dragon.

Time to have a focused excursion. Chinese shall be caught on wrong foot. You could also bank a few Tibetans to light the fire from within.

Nothing like a 'Ghar ka Bhedi Lanka Dhaye'.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 01 Jul 2017 13:27

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/doka- ... 170701.htm
Doka La face-off: Round 1 to India
July 01, 2017 07:07 IST
Ten days later, with the Indian Army in full control of the area where the incident took place, New Delhi has signalled a face-saver for Beijing.
Ajai Shukla reports.
In its first statement on the Indian Army's ongoing confrontation with a Chinese patrol and road construction party that began two weeks ago, New Delhi stated on Friday, June 30, that it is 'deeply concerned' at China's attempt to alter the status quo, which could have 'serious security implications' for India. This refers to Sikkim's proximity to the Siliguri corridor -- a narrow 'chicken's neck' that connects northeast India with the rest of the country.
China's army edging toward this corridor constitutes a nightmare for Indian defence planners. New Delhi's statement reveals that troops of the Royal Bhutan Army first intercepted a Chinese construction party on June 16 in the Doka La area of the Doklam Plateau in Sikkim.
The incursion took place on Bhutanese territory, near the 'tri-junction' of the borders of India, Bhutan and China. It quickly drew in Indian troops, which crossed into Bhutanese territory. Explaining India's involvement, the statement says: 'In coordination with the RGOB (Royal Government of Bhutan), Indian personnel, who were present at general area Doka La, approached the Chinese construction party and urged them to desist from changing the status quo. These efforts continue.'
Highlighting further the coordination between New Delhi and Thimphu, the statement goes on: 'In keeping with their tradition of maintaining close consultation on matters of mutual interest, RGOB and the Government of India have been in continuous contact through the unfolding of these developments.'
Using typically robust methods, Indian troops physically prevented the Chinese from building activities while New Delhi and Beijing have attempted to defuse the crisis. The matter has been under discussion between India and China at the diplomatic level in the Foreign Ministries since then, both in New Delhi and Beijing. It was also the subject of a Border Personnel Meeting at Nathu La on 20 June,' said the Indian foreign ministry statement.
Ten days later, with the Indian Army in full control of the area where the incident took place, New Delhi has signalled a face-saver for Beijing: 'India is committed to working with China to find peaceful resolution of all issues in the border areas through dialogue.'
The three-way confrontation came to public notice early this week, when television channels repeatedly broadcast a video showing members of the Indian patrol physically jostling with a Chinese patrol. I have learnt authoritatively that the video in question relates to another patrol clash that took place elsewhere, much earlier. No video has been broadcast of the current confrontation in Sikkim.
Thimphu has played an active role in negotiations, although it does not have diplomatic relations with Beijing. Consequently, Bhutan's diplomacy was conducted through its embassy in New Delhi. On June 20, the Bhutanese ambassador lodged a protest with the Chinese embassy in New Delhi.
On Tuesday, June 27, Beijing had issued a statement claiming the Doklam plateau, based on the 1890 'Convention Between Great Britain and China Relating to Sikkim and Tibet'. Bhutan responded on Thursday, June 29, pointing out that Chinese road building directly violates the 1988 and 1998 agreements between the two countries to maintain peace and tranquillity on their border, pending a final solution. Beijing is particularly furious at India's intercession on Bhutan's behalf.
...

Gautam

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jul 2017 14:51

SSridhar wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:Do we actually have an agreement with Bhutan where their defense is our responsibility?Please link me to it.
I don't think that question can be answered. The answer can only be inferred. We do have a Friendship Treaty and that is based on the British-Bhutan Treaty.

Just an update to the "inference" part I had mentioned.

The latest statement (and the only one so far) from GoI says, among other things, " . . . In keeping with their tradition of maintaining close consultation on matters of mutual interest, RGOB and the Government of India have been in continuous contact through the unfolding of these developments. In coordination with the RGOB (Royal Government of Bhutan), Indian personnel, who were present at general area Doka La, approached the Chinese construction party and urged them to desist from changing the status quo."

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 02 Jul 2017 00:30

These two images are from google maps India and China. I have tried to highlight Sino vs Bhutan border. I have NOT put any efforts on India vs China borders mapping as my skills with photo editing are limited. But it will be quite interesting to do this as there is no official maps shared by China.

PS: I have used 50 km google scale to draw these pics but geo/mapping experts can rebuilt it quite easily.

williams · Post by **williams** » 02 Jul 2017 02:47

I still don't understand why do we need to provide a face saver when there is balant thuggish behaviour. After all Chinese never give us a face saver.