Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Jul 2017 08:29

rohitvats,

excellent work.

One comment. Make sure that the narrative and maps are in sync. So, in your very first map/fig, the narrative related to it states "-Bhutan-China (Chumbi Valley) boundary tri-junction", but I do not see any mention of "Chumbi Valley" in the map!! It helps a great deal if teh narrative and maps are in sync.

Also, it is rather disturbing that the Indian media does not invest enough to produce such reports!!!

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 03 Jul 2017 08:51

I have been looking for you tube videos on the india-China standoff, one thing strikes me, there is no dhoti shivering there, if anything full confidence that China will get a blood nose. Another thing is that I find very little discussion on the baki media about this, probably they know ilon blother made a mistake.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Jul 2017 10:13

The Chinese had already planned another 1962, and Indian resistance so early is the surprise. Now the ball is in "diplomacy" court and they are already playing victim. Expect huge reinforcements, and quick attack, and then a ceasefire offer, and another victory for PLA a'la 1962.

But are we going to play along with their game plan is the question.

We might have gamed it already, fingers crossed dhoti shiver onree

The beauty of this game is that even if we don't budge, a quick ambush on IA could be a face saver for PLA, they can go back with H n D intact.

Only a bloody nose response to PLA from IA is going to be the game changer.

That bloody nose has to be with full media glare and jingo lungi dance.

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 03 Jul 2017 10:34

SSridhar wrote:Rohitvats, brilliant work. Clears the confusion a lot.

You have PM.

I will send a detailed e-mail by today evening.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2017 11:46

TKiran wrote:Only a bloody nose response to PLA from IA is going to be the game changer.

That bloody nose has to be with full media glare and jingo lungi dance.

TK, we don't need to do it in the trijunction either. We can do it elsewhere, where the Chinese might leaast expect it, while keeping the pot simmering at the trijunction area.

In fact, I expect the Chinese to do exactly the same thing, attacking us elsewhere under a trivial pretext. The question is whether we pre-empt that or not.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 03 Jul 2017 11:55

We need to watch for signs of a buildup.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 12:00

all our polar orbit cartosats and risats which overfly the border must be checking things multiple times daily.

click on draw footprint under live tracking here http://www.n2yo.com/?s=41599

these puppies pass diagonally over tibet in just the right way we need ... we should be able to track cheen road and rail movements within few hours of entering the tibet plateau from the north and east.

our analysts will also be checking their depots and cantonments adjacent to railway lines for signs of more heavy eqpt and formations being mobilized.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Jul 2017 12:50

There are some subtle psyops that favoured IA (I don't know if intentionally or by luck).

1. YouTube video of how chikna chikna PLA unable to push the battle hardened IA soldiers.

2. Somewhat slow but still devastating truth about the lies of PLA that "PLA is the victim" trickling down the SM and MSM.

3. No Indian civilians fearing PLA.

This has already turned out to be huge H n D loss for PLA.

Also there could be some inner fighting going on between PLA Navy and PLA Army. PLAN has been successful by occupying Philippines shoals, but Army has been sissy, and facing lay-offs. Now that they crossed the Rubicon, they can't back off.

Expect PLAN, PLAF also getting entangled into this.

They may ask their Munna also to open up some fronts to distract IA.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 12:53

per ananth krishnan's blog rewteet there have been 10 statements by cheen MEA in last 10 days including on sunday.

Ananth Krishnan‏ @ananthkrishnan 21h21 hours ago
Ananth Krishnan Retweeted sutirtho patranobis
No respite even on a Sunday: 10 days, 10+ statements from China's gov/official media blaming India on Sikkim stand-off, relentless info. war

^^^ and SM indians have been contemptuous of cheen and their shouting.

this could be their prince-salman-invades-yemen use case ... breakfast in aden, lunch in taiz and dinner in Sanaa

which got stuck in the breakfast in aden phase

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Jul 2017 12:54

More later but one quick comment.

If munna opens up will provide us with an opportunity to test those Brahmos to take out the newly constructed bridges on around the abottabad lake. I for one will welcome initiative from munna.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Jul 2017 12:56

https://m.rediff.com/news/report/war-li ... 170703.htm

War likely if Sikkim standoff mishandled: Chinese media

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 13:07

6 imagery cartosats are in orbit
http://www.n2yo.com/database/?q=cartosat#results

risat2 - its orbit seems shaped differently than the cartosats with more time spent in a long elliptical path over tibet . being a radar sat, weather is not a factor
http://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=34807

risat1 has a more conventional polar orbit http://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=38248

while we could always have more and better sats upto the KH12, these 8 hawks up there should suffice for present needs.

we are not blind.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 13:13

damaging attacks on india cyber infra could be blamed on "patriotic chinese hackers" (but working under govt guidance from the back as always). this is one area where cheen has a proven ability to steal / damage all over the world.

the signal will be if "patriotic univ students" are bussed in from campus to protest against the yindu in public squares and infront of the consulate.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 03 Jul 2017 13:13

Another consequence could be that GOI and babus will see the situation that can arise and increase the defense budget to 3% of our GDP.

nam · Post by **nam** » 03 Jul 2017 13:27

TKiran wrote: War likely if Sikkim standoff mishandled: Chinese media

If the Chinese wanted to "teach us a lesson" in the tri-junction, they would have already done it. We are at heights and PLA is in the valley below. They know they are sitting ducks if the "teachers" are noticed on their way to the school.

The teaching might happen in another place along the LAC.

We need some PR going from Bhutan. Telling the world how India came to help a small helpless Buddhist nation against a 10 trillion bully, who was planning to occupy another peaceful Buddhist civilisation after Tibet.

I am sure this will be heard loudly in places like.. Tokyo

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 03 Jul 2017 13:30

nam wrote:
TKiran wrote: War likely if Sikkim standoff mishandled: Chinese media
If the Chinese wanted to "teach us a lesson" in the tri-junction, they would have already done it. We are at heights and PLA is in the valley below. They know they are sitting ducks if the "teachers" are noticed on their way to the school.

The teaching might happen in another place along the LAC.

We need some PR going from Bhutan. Telling the world how India came to help a small helpless Buddhist nation against a 10 trillion bully, who was planning to occupy another peaceful Buddhist civilisation after Tibet.

I am sure this will be heard loudly in places like.. Tokyo

I am pretty sure that they will escalate, grab land and wait for the summit in Sept which Xi is going to chair and force a status quo change

nam · Post by **nam** » 03 Jul 2017 13:44

Iyersan wrote: I am pretty sure that they will escalate, grab land and wait for the summit in Sept which Xi is going to chair and force a status quo change

If they do, we outflank and grab some heights the area behind their position. If they want to maintain the status quo with their troops cutoff... it's their wish.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Jul 2017 13:52

Actually if India decides, it can make a play for the entire Chumbi valley. Go behind the Chinese and make a run across the mouth of the valley from Sikkim to Butan.

Obviously that will be like waving a red flag in front of the bull but it could happen if push comes to shove.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 03 Jul 2017 14:10

nam wrote:
TKiran wrote: War likely if Sikkim standoff mishandled: Chinese media
If the Chinese wanted to "teach us a lesson" in the tri-junction, they would have already done it. We are at heights and PLA is in the valley below. They know they are sitting ducks if the "teachers" are noticed on their way to the school.

The teaching might happen in another place along the LAC.

We need some PR going from Bhutan. Telling the world how India came to help a small helpless Buddhist nation against a 10 trillion bully, who was planning to occupy another peaceful Buddhist civilisation after Tibet.

I am sure this will be heard loudly in places like.. Tokyo

We need to be cautious about being over-confident about the heights. Remember the lessons from Batalik also apply to us. This landscape is equally barren and open to surveillance (leading to the false sense of security about safety of the positions held).

I do not propose dhoti shivering. However, if we do run into a crazy colonel who decides to go for glory (and a few crazy *s who decide to roll the dice), are we prepared for the consequences of that madman's charge -- probably annihilation of his unit, and an escalation across 2,000 kms. I'm sure everyone agrees, but remember NDA 1 fell even after the Kargil victory. After reading Rohit's detailed coverage, it appears we are at an advantage for a wide swathe adjacent to Bhutan.

Shaking the PLA tree will likely end in a not one but a series of battles. Hopefully at the end of it, several lakh grandparents in China left without an heir will stoke revolt and an abrupt change in regime. This is the biggest psychological gap in the Chinese psyche and we need to be working very hard on breaching it on a daily basis (if you get the drift).

PS: Is this outflanking similar to the forward position program in 61/62?

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 03 Jul 2017 14:16

The J&K region is the balkans for India. This is where Pakistan and China linkup. They will leverage their advantage of facing India on two sides here should skirmishes start happening.

We have to find regions on Tibet border where PLA can have local advantage. Tawang is where they hold positions in strength per Doc's videos

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 14:19

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... war-dayal/
Occupy Chumbi Valley: A Top Secret Cable from Harishwar Dayal
On November 21, 1950, hardly a month after the People’s Liberation Army had invaded Tibet and occupied the town of Chamdo, the Political Officer in Sikkim, Harishwar Dayal send a Top Secret cable to his bosses in the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi.
It could be said that some parts of Dayal’s assessment were prophetic.
But who was ready to listen to him in Delhi?
Dayal analyzed: “Occupation by China of the whole of Tibet or of ..

Read more at:
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news ... war-dayal/

anchal · Post by **anchal** » 03 Jul 2017 14:31

Is war coming to the frontier? The Chinese responded to Jaitley saying China is also different from 1962's and termed India's action as "betrayal". Typical commie speak for talking down to an adversary

I don't think India is going to de-escalate the situation on its own. Will Chinese blink?

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 03 Jul 2017 14:31

My thoughts on Munna getting involved and we should respond in kind to give most of the beating, it will be perfect opportunity to get back PoK. Break the land route between China and Pakistan. Obliviate the CPEC from the world maps.

While on the China front, we should concentrate on re-occupy strategic locations which they have occupied inch by inch plus any other strategic locations which fall under their control.

Let them decide if they want to start the war but we will finish it this time. There is no point of returning anything which we gain in the war. Why to let our soldiers blood flow as water? Hain ji ...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Jul 2017 14:37

pankajs wrote:Actually if India decides, it can make a play for the entire Chumbi valley. Go behind the Chinese and make a run across the mouth of the valley from Sikkim to Butan.

Obviously that will be like waving a red flag in front of the bull but it could happen if push comes to shove.

exactly what i would do if I were COAS. even if we close half of the gorilla trap, its going to be sheer terror in Peking at having a division or two trapped and cut off with no immediate help. the valley floor will have only few roads for the retreating hordes...a perfect ground to pound with artillery from 3 sides.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 03 Jul 2017 14:52

Fully Posted on the OBOR, Chinese Strategy and Implications Thread

Learning with the Times: China doesn't accept the McMahon line agreed on by Britain & Tibet

Cheers

nam · Post by **nam** » 03 Jul 2017 15:03

Marten wrote:
PS: Is this outflanking similar to the forward position program in 61/62?

Well the Chinese did learn something from us in 62. They are doing the their version of forward position.

The Tibet plateau is flat as brick and Chinese have a very long comm line. If the Chinese launch an offensive in a area, we will drop a brigade of mechanised paratroopers behind the Chinese force. And then their is armour in Ladakh.

If they come in like they did in 62, even better. We can pound their LoC on the passes.

Before all this, let the Chinese mobilise some men, who can breath in Tibet. They have 3-4 brigades against our 10 divisions.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 03 Jul 2017 15:11

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 422611.cms
'India violated border ahead of Modi's US visit to show Washington it can contain China', says Chinese media

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2017 15:53

China, Russia share opposition to U.S. THAAD in South Korea : Xi - Reuters

Chinese President Xi Jinping set off on a visit to Russia on Monday stressing the grave threat a U.S. anti-missile system in South Korea poses to both Chinese and Russian interests.

China has repeatedly stated its opposition to the U.S. Thermal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system and has called for its deployment to stopped, and the missiles already installed to be removed.

China says the system's powerful radar can probe deep into its territory, undermining its security and a regional balance while doing nothing to stop North Korea in its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them.

“The U.S. deployment of an advanced anti-missile system in South Korea gravely harms the strategic security interests of China, Russia and other countries in the region,” China's state Xinhua news agency cited Xi as saying.

The United States and South Korea say the THAAD is solely aimed at defending the South from North Korea.

China and Russia have maintained close communication and coordination on the issue and held very similar views on it, Xi said in an interview with Russian media.

“Beijing and Moscow are steadfastly opposed to the THAAD deployment and seriously suggest that relevant countries stop and cancel the installation,” Xinhua cited Xi as saying.

China and Russia would take “necessary measures", either together or independently, to protect their interests, Xi said, without elaborating, according to Xinhua.

Xi also said China and Russia should work together to boost trade and increase investment and financial cooperation, Xinhua reported. Xi will arrive in Moscow for a state visit on Monday before travelling to Germany to attend a G20 summit.

Relations between China and South Korea have been strained by the THAAD deployment though both sides have struck a more conciliatory tone since President Moon Jae-in took office in South Korea May.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2017 16:01

In reponse to Jaitley's remark, China says it is also different now - PTI

The Chinese foreign ministry on Monday dismissed Defence Minister Arun Jaitley’s remarks that India of 2017 is different from what India of 1962.

Mr. Jaitley, responding to China’s oblique reference on June 29 to the war the two countries fought 55 years ago and asking India to learn from “historic lessons”, said on June 30, “If they are trying to remind us, the situation in 1962 was different and India of 2017 is different.”

The current standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the Sikkim sector was triggered by Beijing. The Bhutan government had issued a statement in which it made it clear that the land in question belonged to Bhutan. It is located near India's land and there is an arrangement between India and Bhutan for giving security. The Bhutan government had made its stance clear and China was trying to alter the status quo in the area. "I think after this the issue has become very clear," Mr. Jaitley said.

On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said, “He is right in saying that India in 2017 is different from 1962, just like China is also different.” {IMO, Jaitley should not have retorted to a Chinese PLA Colonel. These must be left to retorts from correspondingly appropriate levels on our side} The border between the two nations in the Sikkim sector was well demarcated under the 1890 Sino-British Treaty. “I would like the Indian side to respect the 1890 treaty immediately and pull back the border troops, which have crossed into Chinese territory back to the Indian side of the boundary. China will take all necessary measures to safeguard its territorial sovereignty,” he said.

Mr. Geng also accused India of using Bhutan as a “cover-up” for the “illegal entry” into the Doklam area over which Bhutan has lodged a protest with the Chinese government.

“In order to cover up the illegal entry of the Indian border troops, to distort the (IMO, Jaitley sfact and even at the expense of Bhutan’s independence and sovereignty {Look who's talking! Classic psy-op here to drive a wedge} , they try to confuse right from wrong, that is futile,” he said.

China has “no objection to normal bilateral relations between India and Bhutan but firmly opposed to the Indian side infringing on Chinese territory using Bhutan as an excuse,” he said.

“The Bhutan side does not know previously that the Indian troops entered into the Doklam area {psy-op} , which is not in line with what is claimed by the Indian side,” he observed.

Asked whether any talks are on between India and China to resolve the standoff in the Sikkim sector, he said, “After the illegal entry of border took place, China has lodged solemn representations at different levels with the Indian side in Delhi and Beijing.”

“The line of diplomatic communication between two sides is open and smooth,” he added.

nam · Post by **nam** » 03 Jul 2017 16:03

This is why we need a Press Conference from Bhutan. Stating clearing Bhutan has asked for assistance of Indian Forces.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Jul 2017 16:19

Actually propaganda works wonders when the audience is in the awe of China, like hans. It's becoming a laughing stock to Indians.

Inspite of nuanced presentation by chindu etc., mouthpieces, other MSM in India is directly quoting the Chinese foreign office without any interpretation and becoming a laughing stock.

Hope their hubris is going to bring them the fall far earlier than actually what they deserve after a sacrifice of millions of Hans during the great leap or the genocide of tiananmen square.

All this is because of the new generation Hans who have never seen hardship of their parents. Too much of wealth in short span of time could be the reason. Yeah surely sitting in front of computer and hacking is a great skill, but fighting in Tibet/Bhutan with IA is different ball game altogether.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 03 Jul 2017 16:21

nam wrote:This is why we need a Press Conference from Bhutan. Stating clearing Bhutan has asked for assistance of Indian Forces.

You don't need any press conference at least not after the South China sea land grab. As mentioned by TKiran, the only people in thralls of the Chinese propaganda are the hans, the bakis and some leftist/communist in India and elsewhere.

Rest all folks and countries know China at least after the South China Sea land grab if not from before.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Jul 2017 16:40

pankajs wrote:
nam wrote:This is why we need a Press Conference from Bhutan. Stating clearing Bhutan has asked for assistance of Indian Forces.
You don't need any press conference at least not after the South China sea land grab. As mentioned by TKiran, the only people in thralls of the Chinese propaganda are the hans, the bakis and some leftist/communist in India and elsewhere.

Rest all folks and countries know China at least after the South China Sea land grab if not from before.

perception is important.

Let the bhutias do the press conference inviting India to help them out.

It gives us both the legal cover and the legitimacy to also protect our own bonafide interests besides coming to the aid of the little guy being hassled by the neighbourhood bully.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Jul 2017 16:50

Sir, that would be like 'apologetic' explanation by Bhutan, in my honest opinion, we should discourage Bhutan to be seen as "apologetic"

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 03 Jul 2017 16:57

Even local Telugu news channels are mocking at hans, saying even Tibet doesn't belong to China, they forcibly occupied Tibet and all their claims of sovereignty over Tibet neighborhood is the behaviour of bully etc.

There's more clarity in reportage of local language news than the English language news

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 03 Jul 2017 17:02

TKiran wrote:Even local Telugu news channels are mocking at hans, saying even Tibet doesn't belong to China, they forcibly occupied Tibet and all their claims of sovereignty over Tibet neighborhood is the behaviour of bully etc.

There's more clarity in reportage of local language news than the English language news

now you have understood the meaning of foreign owned/influenced Indian english language media

nam · Post by **nam** » 03 Jul 2017 17:02

The narrative should be bully trying to stomp another Buddhist civilisation after Tibet. Nothing gets people's goat like a bit of "holy war" sprinkled on it.

It should ruffle some feathers in Colombo and Tokyo.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 03 Jul 2017 17:11

Funny part is, Cheen is also supposed to be buddhist country before commies took over.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2017 17:35

But, we should remember that China has so far been able to successfully manage the repression it has let loose on the Uyghurs in Xinjiang:

No beard
No Koran in Arabic
No fasting
No Azan
No sermon
No Hajj or Umrah
No madrasseh
No nothing

And, the most violence-prone religion that doesn't take the slightest curbs without resorting to ummah-condemnation has kept totally silent. Nothing from wahhabi KSA, not a murmur from Wahhabi/salafi/Deobandi sweeter-than-honey Pakistani jihadi terror tanzeems or Islamist parties or for that matter any other Islamist country including Turkey.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2017 17:38

Karthik S wrote:Funny part is, Cheen is also supposed to be buddhist country before commies took over.

True.

But, the story goes that when Buddhism entered China, the Emperor wouldn't allow the exalted status to the Buddha. Ultimately, the Buddhist monks had to accept that they saw the Buddha in the Emperor!