Indian Navy News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

[NRao]

How come you guys are having so much fun without me? That is forbidden. I do not visit this thread at all, but by mistake I did today.

Manish {MAN, I have to remove you from my ignore list to read your posts. I am doing more work than I normally do}

I know I am OLD and have some "pleading the 5th" (will leave it to google to tell you what that is - but, it is great) in me.

But for heaven sake (is there a heaven?), do not quote me without understanding what I have posted.

Life is simple. Please do not complicate it with superimpositions of your thoughts.

if you need clarifications let me know and I would be glad to provide it.

Thanks.

[Manish_Sharma]

za

Manish {MAN, I have to remove you from my ignore list to read your posts. I am doing more work than I normally do}

I know I am OLD and have some "pleading the 5th" (will leave it to google to tell you what that is - but, it is great) in me.

But for heaven sake (is there a heaven?), do not quote me without understanding what I have posted.

Life is simple. Please do not complicate it with superimpositions of your thoughts.

if you need clarifications let me know and I would be glad to provide it.

Thanks.

NRao ji it saddens me to know that you have put me on ignore list, I have great regards for your and Philip 's knowledge. But just like everyone you both may have very very light shades of bias(positively) towards Russia or usa it is that I oppose.

It was around last year ma y June when you sudeepJ etc. were advocating Vishal and I was opposing it with my own plan of buying 90 Su 35s and refuelling tanker instead of carrier.

In your usual cryptic style you made this statement :. In case Bharat goes for 2nd Vikrant then US will retract EMALS help for Vishal.

So yes please explain,. I'd be grateful.

[NRao]

I haven't read the particular post but that is besides the point.

Don't bother. It does not exist!!!!

DTTI covers carrier technologies and is a mutually agreed upon area of interest.

True.

Actually, initiated by India.

And it could include such areas as construction.

If the MOD and the IN feel that they don't need EMALS from the US they could have simply not engaged the bilateral initiative focusing on it.

Not true.

EMALS was *offered* to IN. It pre-dates DTTI. Simple. The DTTI was an India request. In the case of the carrier it (DTTI) involved checking out the Vishal (for lack of a better term). The USN then went of to offer helping *CERTIFYING* the Vikrant. Three things: Hawkeye/EMALS (US) + Vishal (India) + Vikrant (US).

We should not confuse the two : EMALS (and the Hawkeye too) and DTTI. I will not quote the rest of your post.

BUT, I will add that I expect the Vishal to be very similar to the Ford. A smaller version of teh Ford.

[NRao]

{OK, will remove you from ignore list. apologies.}

Think about it.

EMALS was offered as an option to steam CAT.

SO, if you go for another Vikrant - a ski jump, what boat is there for EMALS?

Assuming, of course, that "another Vikarnt" take the funds away from ths Vishal.

[NRao]

Besides, my "connection the dots", has more to do with the PACCOM. Really nothing to do with "US" or even "USN".

Not sure if people were paying attention. Before Xi visited Mar-a-Lago, China *did everything within her powers* to get the head of PACCOM replaced. The one guy in the USN that supports India - all out. IF it were not for two US Senators, India would have lost a HUGE pillar of support in the Indo-Pacific region.

Irrespective of what anyone thinks, the IN and USPACOM are tied at the hips.

And, that is reflected on the SE (and TE) effort.

[Singha]

Dominating the IOR has 5 aspects

- undersea - for this we need 15 more subs and 50 more long range LRMP planes / Tritons
also the subs need to be packing brahmos.
- over sea - land based bombers armed with brahmos is a must. we have the platform, but first live test this month only. ideally some blackjacks..
every large ship is anyway getting brahmos.
- supporting punitive action over land -
ships and subs will need nirbhay
4 LPH ships
russian style heavy bombers with nirbhay and brahmos
- deep economic links and foothold in every IOR rim economy, strong ties with political elites on every shore.
- strong diaspora in every IOR rim country

so there are yawning gaps in each bucket mainly related to build capacity, technology and cost.

this is not doable before 2050

[Singha]

if we translate these requirements to the SCS and Cheen vs the SCS rim nations, Cheen already has covered all these bases except vs Japan.

they have a lot of subs and PLANAF assets
H6 bombers with ALCMs
LPH ships are coming online more
most of their subs now pack SLCMs and ASMs
deep economic coverage and paid links to political elites
strong ex fujianese "straits chinese" in indonesia, singapore, malaysia

so now wonder they are acting tough like they own the place.

SCS is a much smaller region 20X than IOR and Cheen fronts half of it so a much easier task, keeping her enemies close and under tight watch

[NRao]

Dominating the IOR has 5 aspects

- undersea - for this we need 15 more subs and 50 more long range LRMP planes / Tritons
also the subs need to be packing brahmos.
- over sea - land based bombers armed with brahmos is a must. we have the platform, but first live test this month only. ideally some blackjacks..
every large ship is anyway getting brahmos.
- supporting punitive action over land -
ships and subs will need nirbhay
4 LPH ships
russian style heavy bombers with nirbhay and brahmos
- deep economic links and foothold in every IOR rim economy, strong ties with political elites on every shore.
- strong diaspora in every IOR rim country

so there are yawning gaps in each bucket mainly related to build capacity, technology and cost.

this is not doable before 2050

why?

IN has support.

The lizard is being forced to morph into a chameleon.

[Singha]

>>IN has support

open the wallet brother and look inside...just moral support does not create the opex and capex..thats like the famous CCEA/EGOM/CCS "in principle" approval which is a "approval of need". its left as a engineering exercise for the hapless finance minister to rake up the funds thereafter while the PPTX scene shifts to other decks.

on my part I have accorded in-principle approval to lay in 25 tu160m2 from the restarted production line in 2016 itself. it will be useful both vs Cheen and over the sea. mach1.5 sustained cruising is very hard to intercept at high level.

[NRao]

>>IN has support

open the wallet brother and look inside...just moral support does not create the opex and capex..thats like the famous CCEA/EGOM/CCS "in principle" approval which is a "approval of need". its left as a engineering exercise for the hapless finance minister to rake up the funds thereafter while the PPTX scene shifts to other decks.

Wallet is in the form of (Chinese sub) info. Think GoI/MoD/FM or the US can provide sufficient funds and that too in time to cover such info being provided right now?

Yes, India needs funds. Everyone knows that - that it is on BR is enough.

On the flip side, the others are very well aware of Indian deficiencies - including thinking. EMALS and offer to tie up of sub info is not an accident. They are to cover Indian deficiencies {in the most efficient ways}.




Not sure if anyone is aware. EMALS was selected by IN because the steam could not meet IN's rec to launch crafts. For what it is worth. A lot I would say.

[Cain Marko]

All this salivating over 65k ton carrier again, eh? Someone please tell some of us the utility of this white elephant?

I would read Singhajis post again, makes eminent sense.

[Arjun Gupta]

Where are the Malabar exercises photos? :-(

[NRao]

All this salivating over 65k ton carrier again, eh? Someone please tell some of us the utility of this white elephant?

The IN opted for that elephant. Not anyone else.

Internet. The option is between scraping carriers or building the best. The question, then, is what is the best. {IMHO, as I stated when the Vicky was in Portugal - on her maiden trip to India - sell her.}

I would read Singhajis post again, makes eminent sense.

Makes a lot of sense if IN were to be operating alone. Agreed.

Not sure, but it seems to me, that that era has gone. ??????????????????????

[NRao]

India-Japan-US Malabar 2017 Naval Exercises Kick Off With Anti-Submarine Warfare in Focus

This exercise is the first to involve a carrier from each of the navies.

By Ankit Panda
July 10, 2017

Beginning on July 6, India, Japan, and the United States began the 2017 iteration of the Malabar naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal. This year’s exercise will last for eight days and have a heavy anti-submarine warfare (ASW) focus. The exercise is the second since the three countries decided that Japan would become a permanent member of what used to be a U.S.-India bilateral exercise, with other participants occasionally invited to participate or observe.

This year’s Malabar exercise is notable on several fronts. First, it’s the first naval exercise between the three countries to involve carriers from each navy. The Indian Navy has dispatched INS Vikramaditya, its modified Russian-made Kiev-class carrier that was commissioned in 2013. The United States has sent the USS Nimitz supercarrier to the exercises. Meanwhile, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force sent JS Izumo, which left Japan earlier this spring for a multiple-month-long deployment to Southeast Asia before arriving in the Indian Ocean for Malabar 2017.

The Izumo is one of two Japanese warships that are among the largest the country has operated since the end of the Second World War. Japan describes the Izumo-class vessels as “helicopter destroyers” and not aircraft carriers; the warships are not equipped to launch fighter aircraft, but could likely be retrofitted for short-take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) variants of the F-35B. The Izumo is joined at Malabar 2017 by JS Sazanami; both vessels recently joined U.S. Nimitz-class supercarrier USS Ronald Reagan for bilateral exercises in the South China Sea.

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Excluding the three carriers from each nation, at least fourteen other warships and submarines from the three nations are participating in this year’s exercise. Additionally, the Indian Navy has sent P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft to this exercise, underlining the anti-submarine warfare focus this year. The United States has also sent a P-8A Poseidon aircraft to the exercise.

Notably, Australia, a former Malabar participant, is not participating in Malabar 2017, despite interest from Canberra earlier this year. India and Australia held a separate bilateral naval exercise in June and the United States and Australia just concluded the latest iteration of their major bilateral exercise, Talisman Saber 2017. Australia had joined India, the United States, Japan, and Singapore for the 2007 iteration of the Malabar exercise, drawing a sharp reaction from China, which perceived the multilateral drill that year as a threatening signal of oncoming containment of its ambitions by like-minded democracies.

Malabar 2017 consists of both ashore and at-sea activities. The activities ashore, which are being held in Chennai, “include subject matter expert and professional exchanges on carrier strike group operations, maritime patrol and reconnaissance operations, surface and anti-submarine warfare, medical operations, damage control, explosive ordnance disposal (EOD), helicopter operations, and visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) operations,” according to a statement by the U.S. Navy.

The at-sea activities include “liaison officer professional exchanges and embarks; a photo exercise; submarine familiarization; high-value unit defense; air defense exercises; medical evacuation drills; surface warfare exercises; communications exercises; search and rescue exercises; helicopter cross-deck evolutions; underway replenishments; gunnery exercises; VBSS exercises; and anti-submarine warfare.”

This year, in the weeks leading up to the Malabar drill, India and China have been locked in what has been described by the Chinese side as their most serious border incident in more than 30 years. Indian and Chinese soldiers have been involved in a tense stand-off in a piece of territory disputed between Bhutan and China to which India ascribes strategic importance.

The anti-submarine warfare focus of this year’s Malabar also carries subtext given the ever-increasing and regular operation of Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy submarines in the Indian Ocean. Since 2015, at least, Chinese Shang-class and Song-class submarines have been deployed in the Indian Ocean, raising concerns for India. China has, in the meantime, also broken ground on its first overseas naval base in Djibouti.

[Cain Marko]

All this salivating over 65k ton carrier again, eh? Someone please tell some of us the utility of this white elephant?

Not sure, but it seems to me, that that era has gone. ??????????????????????

Can't deny the possibility of what you are saying, but that's a lot of eggs to be putting in one basket, how far will decision makers... Not navy.... Buy into it when a change in the WH can put everything under question.?

[nirav]

All this salivating over 65k ton carrier again, eh? Someone please tell some of us the utility of this white elephant?

I would read Singhajis post again, makes eminent sense.

I actually commend the navy for the bada carrier Catobar decision.
These ships have a long build time. Hopefully CSL can take up the Vishal as soon as Vikrant is completed in a year or two.

The range payload equation change from stobar to Catobar is a good enough reason on its own for the 65k T ship.
The trajectory of our economy for the next 30-40 years is quite encouraging to allow the navy to not only go in for this 65k T carrier now, but more in the future..

[Cain Marko]

The range payload equation change from stobar to Catobar is a good enough reason on its own for the 65k T ship.
The trajectory of our economy for the next 30-40 years is quite encouraging to allow the navy to not only go in for this 65k T carrier now, but more in the future..

Can you elaborate on the scenarios in which you envisage the use of this increased capability at a time when critical gaps still exidt in basic, Dal roti type equipment and there is a struggle to get resources for the same....

[Austin]

Watch Malabar exercise: Videos from day before the India-US-Japan naval exercise that has China irritated

[Rakesh]

Where are the Malabar exercises photos? :-(

Here is one link...

https://twitter.com/search?q=livefist&src=typd

[nirav]

The capital outgo on the big carrier won't start for a while and when it does it will be in a phased manner.wont necessitate dropping billions in a financial year.

Approx build time would be minimum 10 years and assuming a 6 billion tag for the ship, it will be spread at around 600m avg per year.roughly 4000 odd crores..

Certainly navy would have a clearer picture of what kind of outlays are needed for the ship and in which timeframe. And that they would have done a cost benefit analysis of this ship and also factored in current allocations for dal roti type equipment..
With this induction there is a very high possibility of the ship operating the JSF. Quite a decisive edge for the navy wrt the Chinese.

[Prasad]

We wont be building just one Vishal class carrier will we? So that would be atleast 2/3. Spread over 25 years? So even if we start in 2020, that will be 2045 before we have a 3 carrier fleet. Building just one seems very odd. Besides we haven't even begun our P75I yet. March 2018 is when SPs are supposed to be decided. The scorpene line is finally humming thankfully though we have no active AIP program running tests on a submarine that we know of yet.

[nirav]

I do believe that we will go for more than one 65k T carriers.
Concurrent manufacture might be an issue.for now only CSL is capable of handling a carrier.

Our three carrier fleet will be complete with Vikramaditya,Vikrant and Vishal..
In that timeframe however, the Vikramaditya might end up being a little long in the tooth.
Still, we would have a very capable airing with Vikrant, the other 57 non mig 29k jets and super hornet or jsf on the Vishal.

[Manish_Sharma]

on my part I have accorded in-principle approval to lay in 25 tu160m2 from the restarted production line in 2016 itself. it will be useful both vs Cheen and over the sea. mach1.5 sustained cruising is very hard to intercept at high level.

How about 90 Su35 single seaters and a fuel Tanker to accompany in case Tu 160 doesn't materialize?

[brar_w]

Su-30MKI++ will already give you equal or superior capability than the Su-35 for the concerned mission.

[Manish_Sharma]

All this salivating over 65k ton carrier again, eh? Someone please tell some of us the utility of this white elephant?

I would read Singhajis post again, makes eminent sense.

What if war starts when this white elephant is in refit OR WORSE mid life upgrade. It'd take anywhere from year to 3 years to complete it.

What a sad picture it'd paint to see 10 billion dollar platform sitting out the war, in fact assets will have to be deputed to protect it from attacks., those platforms which could have been used to attack enemy.

___________________

Why was our aircraft carrier not involved in attacking Karachi? Was it due to concern of enemy submarines?

[Manish_Sharma]

Su-30MKI++ will already give you equal or superior capability than the Su-35 for the concerned mission.

Brar Warrior , I thought of single seater 35s due to more fuel and more range.

[brar_w]

What if war starts when this white elephant is in refit OR WORSE mid life upgrade. It'd take anywhere from year to 3 years to complete it.

What a sad picture it'd paint to see 10 billion dollar platform not sitting out the war, in fact assets will have to be deputed to protect it from attacks., those platforms which could have been used to attack enemy.

This assumes without any justification that the IN is interest in only one 65K class carrier and additionally also pegs a number on its cost. This requires a inside knowledge of what the strategy is leading the IN towards a particular decision, and knowledge on the exact design parameters to derive upon a cost analysis.

The Vishal is most likely a 2030+ time-frame carrier and the IN is actually doing a nice job in looking at technologies and investment tracks now so that they have all the pieces in place to field that capability in that time-frame. It would likely be a 2+ carrier production program given where the Indian Economy is likely to be in that timeframe. Meanwhile, rightsizing the Viraat fleet is something that is independent. They aren't buying the carrier now or even in 2020..it is going to be a long process of concept development to design to production, T&C and eventually ope rationalizing it.

[Manish_Sharma]

Mmrca in media was reported as 6 billion dollar deal in 2006, every year it escalated by two billions, in the end it was being pegged at 25 billion.

I wouldn't be surprised if Vishal by 2030 will cost north of 10 billion.

[brar_w]

Again, unless you are familiar with and have insight into what the IN is developing you cannot derive upon a cost-analysis. Not even a back of the envelope analysis would be credible without knowing the most basic stuff. Vishal is not a program to buy a foreign carrier. With it the IN is looking to invest in certain foreign technologies but also incorporating a lot of domestic capabilities developed along the way. In fact it is quite likely that most of it will be indigenous.

There is no way to peg the cost of a carrier by simply looking at another. Case in point, cost of the last Nimitz class carrier ($5-6 Billion) vs the first Ford Class ($13 Billion) - both being 100K ton class carriers. Similarly, the RN gets 2 QECs for 6.2 Billion pounds ($3.9 Billion per carrier in the 70K class).

The MMRCA was an aircraft plus domestic production + TOT deal along with a PBL. This is a carrier being designed by the Indian navy, produced in India at a local ship yard while looking to absorb some off the shelf technologies from abroad. They are nowhere even remotely comparable.

[Manish_Sharma]

OK we will see if vishal costs less then 10 billion or not by 2030.

If they are planning to incorporate EMALS kind of tech then everything else be top of line too.

[brar_w]

OK we will see if vishal costs less then 10 billion or not by 2030.

If they are planning to incorporate EMALS kind of tech then everything else be top of line too.

The VikA cost $2.4 Billion in 2004 iirc. Assuming 2.5% as the annual inflation between 2004 and 2030, you get a cost between 5 and 6 Billion approximately. I'm likely being conservative with the inflation figures. A $4 Billion dollar carrier in 2010 would cost $7 billion in 2030 using the same inflation percentages so you have to be clear whether you are to then year or current year dollar amount.

That is one side of the equation, now figure out where India's economy is likely to be in 2030 compared to where it was in 2004.

[Cain Marko]

The capital outgo on the big carrier won't start for a while and when it does it will be in a phased manner.wont necessitate dropping billions in a financial year.

Approx build time would be minimum 10 years and assuming a 6 billion tag for the ship, it will be spread at around 600m avg per year.roughly 4000 odd crores..

Certainly navy would have a clearer picture of what kind of outlays are needed for the ship and in which timeframe. And that they would have done a cost benefit analysis of this ship and also factored in current allocations for dal roti type equipment..
With this induction there is a very high possibility of the ship operating the JSF. Quite a decisive edge for the navy wrt the Chinese.

1. This is not the only capital acquisition over the next ten years. We are looking at destroyers, Corvettes, frigates, mpaa, conventional subs, choppers, nuke subs. Most in that list would be considered bread n butter acquisitions. And a bunch of these capabilities have serious shortfalls. Adding a fleet of nuke powered carriers would be very expensive and possibly impossible without sacrificing some of the already scarce critical hardware listed above.

2. How does a single jsf carrier bring anything worthwhile vs. Plan? It will not cause any dent in the plan infested scs area, and plan can be handled well enough in ior without super carrier.

I still fail to see the USP for such an expensive acquisition. Navy planners can build their castles, ultimately goi will have to fund this. And despite the fatte fastest rate of economic growth, we can all see what happened with the raffle acquisition. Could barely afford a fourth of the required numbers.

Pipe dream Saar.

[brar_w]

Another round of assumptions and reference to one carrier. The IN will have 3 carriers if they intend on fielding this by 2030 and rest assured if they go through the design, construction and operationalization of a cutting edge 65K ton carrier, they will buy multiple not just one. This is for a post 2030 Indian economy.

This also assumes that the IN won't do an analysis of alternatives and develop alternative fleet strategies and present them as options to the MOD. Ultimately, this is the MODs call and the IN will present them with options of how they want the IN to grow in the coming decades.

[Cain Marko]

Another round of assumptions and reference to one carrier. The IN will have 3 carriers if they intend on fielding this by 2030 and rest assured if they go through the design, construction and operationalization of a cutting edge 65K ton carrier, they will buy multiple not just one. This is for a post 2030 Indian economy.

Two carriers are already on the cards, afaik Navy doctrine had never called for more than 3cbgs. There is space for only one more. It can either be another vikrant class or a vishal type. And unless they plan on dropping the vikad in another decade, which one truly doubts, how there will be multiple vishal class floating around, is a question best left for fantasy.

Saar, here our heads are spinning as to how a single vishal can be procured and folks are talking of a fleet. Boggles the mind.

[brar_w]

As I said if the IN pursues the Vishal, it for all practical purposes is a 2030 carrier or in other words something that will be the go to carrier design in the 2030-2060 (if not longer) time-frame. Will the IN procure just one carrier within that time frame? How will the rise of the Indian Economy and evolving national security picture affect the IN? You cannot answer some of these questions now but it is clear that the Navy wants a bigger more offense oriented carrier and is willing to take the technical and financial risk of developing one. So far, the MOD seems to be willing to pursue this. Perhaps there is a strategy at play here and we just don't know it? Perhaps the IN has actually done the analysis and thought through some of the fairly straight forward concerns about CBG, and allied investment tracks posted here? Perhaps they had convinced Parrikar of this when he pushed for this to be mutually taken up via DTTI?

[Cain Marko]

As I said if the IN pursues the Vishal, it for all practical purposes is a 2030 carrier or in other words something that will be the go to carrier design in the 2030-2060 (if not longer) time-frame. Will the IN procure just one carrier within that time frame? How will the rise of the Indian Economy and evolving national security picture affect the IN? You cannot answer some of these questions now but it is clear that the Navy wants a bigger more offense oriented carrier and is willing to take the technical and financial risk of developing one. So far, the MOD seems to be willing to pursue this. Perhaps there is a strategy at play here and we just don't know it? Perhaps the IN has actually done the analysis and thought through some of the fairly straight forward concerns about CBG, and allied investment tracks posted here? Perhaps they had convinced Parrikar of this when he pushed for this to be mutually taken up via DTTI?

Perhaps...... Who knows what goes on in mind of the devious babu. But it can equally be said that services always pine for the biggest and greatest toys but they ultimately get only what Mom n pop can afford. Many such examples....iaf wanted and planned for m2ks in the 80s and 90s.... Landed up with migs, flankers and 40 years later, a few Raffles. Navy wanted Raffles, landed up with fulcrums. funny how that works.

But you never know.... Here's to a fleet of Vishals

[Manish_Sharma]

....now figure out where India's economy is likely to be in 2030 compared to where it was in 2004.

See Rafale was also to be manufactured till mid 30s , seeing where Bharat's economy will be at that time IT WAS STILL CANCELLED.

[brar_w]

Unlike importing fighter aircraft, fleet studies and designing and producing ships requires many decades of planning. It takes a long long time to produce a CVN into service if one does the Concept development - In Service date as a measure. Vishaal isn't an instant buy_a_carrier deal. It is a decade plus long process of designing and developing a large aircraft carrier suitable for the post 2030 environment where you can launch large manned and unmanned payloads.

[brar_w]

....now figure out where India's economy is likely to be in 2030 compared to where it was in 2004.

See Rafale was also to be manufactured till mid 30s , seeing where Bharat's economy will be at that time IT WAS STILL CANCELLED.

As explained, a fighter jet acquisition is not comparable to the design-->development----> build---->operationalize process of an Aircraft Carrier. Sure, the IAF can buy more Rafale's for the post 2030 time-frame but they don't need to decide this in 2017 (or 2015). If it is still around then they can licence produce it, or better buy more AMCAs and PAKFAs. Putting a large, sophisticated carrier program is a 15 year + horizon. RDT&E spend on the Vishaal wll be spaced out for development and its acquisition too will be spaced out over number of years. This is fundamentally different from the MMRCA where one was expected to pay TOT, initial procurement and Industry cost in 2015 itself in order to acquire rights to build 126 (minus whatever came from France) in the 2020-2030 time-frame.

[Cain Marko]

↑ Saar, I humbly submit to you that when it comes to any acquisitions in India it always takes decades of planning Strangely, the Navy tends to be fastest in this process despite having to work with assets that would normally take longer.....