Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[r_subra]

Folks

The ASEAN countries are looking for leadership in tackling the avaricious claims of China (SCS reefs, oil drilling rights) and lopsided trade / economic deals. The US being an external ("White") power and in bed in China economically CANNOT be the security provider. ASEAN countries will have to lump it until India is ready. Just a few days ago, posters on this forum concluded that India cannot depend on US for help during Doklam standoff citing several reasons such as eliminating future competition, seceding asia to China et al. Heck, DT even made NATO countries start to think about their security w/o the US. US will NEVER fight a direct war with CHINA unless treaty allies / homeland is under threat of invasion. Even as a security guarantor, US will not get involved in oil drilling rights, sovereignty over little reefs or lopsided trade pacts with China. India with its big market and economy offers another economic pole for ASEAN countries. The big question is, will India take its rightful place as a leader?

[SSridhar]

Something is afoot internally hence they are keeping inner situation very hyper-nationalistic almost feverish . . .

What are the scenarios for war?

First, the Thucydides Trap can explain the challenge that China wants to pose to the US. This may lead to a war.

Second, China wants to establish its hegemony in Asia. It may even feel that it has to do so in order to eventually take on the US. China knows that in medium-to-long term India is its biggest challenger. Already, India competes with China in some areas. So, we are relentlessly targetted all the way: from listing Masood Azhar under UNSC 1267 to NSG/UNSC memberships to border standoffs. For the first time, India has stood up for a third country too and as I believe within Tibet. So, local challenges can also lead to a war.

Third, authoritarian cabal-ruled states always employ this technique of diverting serious internal issues into hyper-nationalism. The communist leaders certainly see a further downside to their economy. Their OBOR is facing strong headwinds. nations seem to have woken up to the Chinese trick of usurping land and gaining strategic concessions under plain usury, disguised as 'development'. The flagship CPEC that was meant for the rest of OBOR is floundering. Whether one says so explicitly or not, there is certainly an informal alliance against China in Asia that involves alien powers as well. China cannot simply smash its way through all these.

[g.sarkar]

Sridharji,
It is possible that US will decline and it is also possible that China will rise simultaneously. But what I do not see is that China will be able to take the place of the USA in any significant way. USA is/was unique in many respects. Far more likely is that there will be many countries that will emerge in the top rung and the world will be multi-polar again. The rise of the US after 1945 and the more recent fall of the Soviet Union were due to conditions that may not be able to be duplicated easily. Before 1945, the World power was shared by the USA, European countries and Japan in a unequal measure. Chinese way of life is not liked or thought of emulation by most democratic nations. Only danda may convince some smaller nations to follow, but it may not work with others. Also, China may not be able to keep its current primary economic position if it miscalculates its policies even by a small degree.
Gautam

[Lekhraj]

The honeymoon between Trump and Xi Jinping which started at the dinner in Mar a Lago in April is certainly over.....

When I wear my Chanakyan hat, I think that US actually has some backdoor channel with Fat Boy Kim, encouraging him to go on displaying his pyrotechics. This will give the US cover to intervene in the Korean peninsula, Japan and Pacific, as a long term measure to raise defences & offensive capability against the real target, the Chinese.

China can't be real target. They are the same instigators to tie US in the region. You are enjoying some good stuff, I see.

[SSridhar]

Cheeni Miltary man ask what give Indian the courage to interfere between Bhutan and China ?

I thought Maj gen Asok Mehta did a good job. But, we *MUST* avoid reference to 1962 in discussions with China unless absolutely necessary, for it immediately puts them on a high-ground unnecessarily.

The idea behind that Chinese Colonel's questioning is clear. He wants to drive a wedge between India & Bhutan. He wants to trash the 'arrangement' between the two nations.

[deejay]

On a different direction to SS jis analysis above '- The Doka La stand Off is still on. Neither sides have budged an inch.

The thing about war in media is that media is unable to maintain a high pitch on a single issue for too long. Even the Chinese media suffers from this. They must now look at North Korea and US, UK etc. The media shifting its focus does not mean that situation has neutralised.

Unfortunately, we are dependent on the media and take our feed on possibility of an event from the number and verbosity of news being spewed as headlines. In this case most headlines were spewing venom without any substance. There was no Chinese build up. Indian build up was limited to defensive positions. Hence, the relaxed non reaction both from the GOI and military. There never was any conflict on the horizon except some local soldiers firing on an impulse.

Another way to look at it the issue at Doka La-
Doka La is a pass situated at 3, 966 meters (~4 Kms). There is snow on the pass even today. Vegetation is light. It is important barrier against Chinese having road access to Indian positions at the actual tri junction and on west slopes of the valley south of Doka La. It belongs to Bhutan and we needed their agreement to go in and step in. The construction of road has been effectively stopped. This was our objective. As long as this objective of our's is maintained, Chinese have failed.

The Chinese militarily will need to be in control of this pass to build the road. What is stopping them for trying to gain control? The obvious answer is that it will lead to an escalation of conflict and possibly war. This is true. But let us break down the thing further.

To win control of Doka La the Chinese will have to a) Attack Indian positions b) Guarantee before the attack that at the end of it they will control Doka La. If they cannot guarantee b) there is no point going for option a) as then even the "notional loss of face" will be bigger.

A close study of orbat and entrenched military positions in the near borders will make it clear that close to the border, Indian fortifications are strong and Indian forces placed in superior positions. We are also more numerous and our supply line short. The Chinese will take a really long time to become equally strong in this area. It is not just a question of moving men and machinery but also sighting them, working the drills and getting the soldiers used to the conditions. Else, those soldiers become ineffective.

Why would the soldiers be ineffective?
The soldiers would be ineffective because they are not "acclimatized". Unlike trekkers for whom acclimatization is a 02/03 process at the most, soldiering needs about six months. In between they will relearn mountain warfare, use of weapons in the terrain of deployment, exploiting the lay of the land, etc. All this takes longer in you are higher up. Despite strong presence in Tibet, the PLA has little presence south of Tsang Po or other river valleys flowing east just north of the Himalayan ridgeline. While the PLA in Tibet is well versed in High Altitude conditions (or so I assume) - mountain warfare and valley issues are different and will need retraining or acclimatization.

So when would the Chinese feel confident enough for attacking?
Unless they want a full fledged war, Never. Even if it is a full fledged war, now is not the time. Why? It's the weather, St***d Its raining now. The rivers in the valleys are in spate. The south slopes are full of melting snow as the summer sun works its wonders. Flash floods, cloud bursts are real this time of year (yes, even in the higher reaches of Himalayas). This is predicted to remain till end September though it may dry up little early by mid September.

The best time for the Chinese to fight Indians on land therefore is October. That too early October is better as come November, it is going to get very cold in Tibet. The icy winds on the Tibetan plateau do not reach India as the Himalayas guard us but the Chinese will face these conditions. Let me assure you that Tibetan General Winter at those altitudes will kill more soldiers than any war will. Tibet will freeze over and will remain so till late May 2018. By the time Tibet unfreezes, it will be late May. By then NE will have rains looming over them all over again.

To summarize, since we are in a defensive position in the area and more numerous, it is nearly impossible for the Chinese to defeat us in a limited area conflict. A large area conflict is not worth the Doka La pass for the Chinese. For us Doka La is a gate that we closed for the Chinese and it is a strategic pass worth holding from a military perspective even if it exposes us to full fledged war.

China is no Pakistan. Despite the noise they will do their cost/benefit analysis before taking any action. The bully roared in the media and failed to scare us. The bully will try the sly way more than a direct confrontation. They may try to come and capture the pass in winter if we vacate it for weather reasons. But as long as we are there, they will not risk a war to capture it.

[SSridhar]

It is possible that US will decline and it is also possible that China will rise simultaneously. But what I do not see is that China will be able to take the place of the USA in any significant way.

Gautam ji, whether that is true or not in our calculations, doesn't matter to the Chinese.

As I wrote here a few weeks back about 'tian xia', everything under the Sun belongs to the Chinese Emperor who is the Son of the Heaven. Everything must be Sinicized. If they cannot be perfectly 'cooked', they must at least be 'half-cooked'. The Chinese Emperors gradually began to understand that the world was too big, not just limited to Mongolia, Yunnan, Annam, Manchuria, Korea et al and there were far away places who could not be brought under the tributaryship of the Chinesee Emperor. They conveniently designated the peoples of these far away places as 'barbarians' whom it may not even be able to be 'half-cooked'. So, they let them be. Anyway, Zheng He was the only one who ventured so far out; none before and none after, for various reasons.

But, the pernicious and arrogant entitlement that they gave to themselves of being rulers of everything they saw and also didn't or couldn't see, has never diminished, not even with the Communists with pretensions of being anti-colonialists! When 'peaceful rise' was announced by Hu Jintao, it implied that it was but a brief interregnum in the otherwise uninterrupted two-millennia Chinese dream of ruling the world.

This is what matters to the Chinese and that was very much evident in the CCTV interview cited above.

[Pulikeshi]

I am going try hard to look at this from Chinese point of view... as something red and green in my dosa onlee!

First, the Thucydides Trap can explain the challenge that China wants to pose to the US. This may lead to a war.

Yes, but from Chinese point of view what are they rising towards? In Asia historically - India has jostled with China only at sea... where as India had to deal with almost all the powers of the world island - Greek, Roman, Persian, Mongol, etc. etc., the Chinese experience has been pretty insulated and limited by the fact that they are an island - surrounded by huge swaths of uninhabited lands to the West and the seas/oceans to the East... Also, the Thucydides Trap ~ can be argued not all rising power, ascendant power interactions have been in all out wars... their a quite a variety if one goes back into history. The Chinese have never really articulated exactly what the US is preventing them from doing in Asia? They have also not articulated what they mean by a peaceful rise? Much like the religion of peace they do not bother to explain what that peace means to those that are not Han believers! But their actions speak louder than their existant and non-existant words!

Second, China wants to establish its hegemony in Asia.

Ideally, if the Chinese are indeed hegemonic they would also be a status-quo power... In some sense China is at its maximalist geographic boundary today. It's like India during Magadhan times - Iran to Burma and most of the sub-continent below the himalayas... Asoka had to pick Buddishm to pacify and pursue a universalism that could find adoption and it did... Yet China today wants to push and probe sometimes for apparently no reason. They also want to proxy Pakistan for India, NoKo for Japan and usually do not know what or how to deal with US. The US is the established hegemonic power in Asia today. However, the US is not pushing and probing and ironically not pursuing peace either and do push western universalism or democracy, individuality, English education etc. Given all this every action the Chinese are taking is creating an alliance against them, this is akin to them "teaching India a lesson on 1962" ~ enabled India to go nuclear and today their unexplainable belligerence towards India may force India to become a formal US ally which is not in Chinese (if not surely in Indian) interest. So what does this Chinese hegemony of Asia really mean?

Subjugation and slavery of Paki, Srilanka, Noko, etc. will not make China powerful, it will only weaken them... so this hegemony makes no sense!

Third, authoritarian cabal-ruled states always employ this technique of diverting serious internal issues into hyper-nationalism. The communist leaders certainly see a further downside to their economy. Their OBOR is facing strong headwinds. nations seem to have woken up to the Chinese trick of usurping land and gaining strategic concessions under plain usury, disguised as 'development'. The flagship CPEC that was meant for the rest of OBOR is floundering. Whether one says so explicitly or not, there is certainly an informal alliance against China in Asia that involves alien powers as well. China cannot simply smash its way through all these.

This is the only explanation that makes sense! The PLA is being downsized and restructured and the political establishment is enabling them to meddle in foreign affairs in a calibrated way to let them vent their frustration and give them safety valves ~ there is a danger in the PLA doing what he Paki Army does in Chick-poo-Stan. Deliberately start a war to retain the waning power of the PLA! The desire for Eleven Gin Peg to become Supleme Leadel is probably also entwined in this mess. The Chinese have a 4.5 front problem now ~ Doklam, SCS, NoKo, Taiwan, Senkaku

It almost seems like we should enable the Chinese to rule more of the world, they will just end up opening more fronts with their boorishness!
Not sure what which of the 36 stlategym said ~ Make the world your enemy, open 4.5 fronts, to become a hegemonic power!

[Pulikeshi]

Cheeni Miltary man ask what give Indian the courage to interfere between Bhutan and China ?

I thought Maj gen Asok Mehta did a good job.

Indian commentators have made repeated mistakes in saying no shots have been fired since 1962 (completely ignoring 67) and raising 1962 themselves like you correctly poin out... also Indian commentators should just say China has a problem with every country in the world... India does not....
They should also say, we do not believe China's peaceful rise and China seems very careless in tone and temperament.

Maj Gen could have just replied, "What gives China the courage to bully a small neighbor like Bhutan with who India has a security arrangement?"

[shiv]

I don;t do this often - i.e. posting the same thing on a 3rd thread..
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... ese-tanks/

blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com
Debunking the hype on Chinese tanks
Lt General K J Singh
5-6 minutes

As the stand-off on Doklam extends into second month, it has raised serious questions on long-held belief that the border between Sikkim and Tibet is settled.

In absence of an agreement, on delineation and demarcation, mutual understanding has been based on an informal agreement on border conforming to a series of features, a sort of delimitation.

Notwithstanding this, there have been frequent pin-pricks, which have been downplayed by us.

In this age of satellites and GPS, two nuclear powers have continued to rely on stone heaps, referred to as Cairns on Kerang plateau in Northern Sikkim. Dragon has its own interpretation leading to silly game of dispersal and regathering of stone heaps. More importantly, Chinese periodically attempt to cut across the line of Cairns to test and stretch our deployment and surveillance. Tracks that Chinese construct in un-held areas unlike roads can take only limited traffic but they signal intention and potential for further mischief.

Chinese border management is based on Border Defence Regiments akin to our BSF / ITBP operating from bases like Yatung and Phari Dzong, who patrol to reiterate claims. Timing and choice of location of patrols is orchestrated to convey a message. Most objective comparison in various patrol stand-offs unequivocally establishes that Dragon is certainly not a ten feet tall super creature. It would be pragmatic to surmise that more like ‘Dr Deng’ of Hindi movies, it is to be feared for scheming nature. Our dealings in past have been defensive due to our belief in ‘peaceful rising’ China. Though slow but we are on a path of sustained capability building, which has been a relative success story in Sikkim. Has this pace combined with impending elections in Bhutan contributed to rattling of China and choice of location for stand-off?

What we are seeing is an aggressive Dragon, once again to borrow Bollywood analogy, the evil money lender, who considers it is his right to grab. Having established economic suzerainty in ASEAN, it promulgated, ‘Nine Dashes Line’ in South China sea and forced littorals like Philippines into meek submission. China is serving a dangerous brew of psychological warfare aided by media backed up with legal and cartographic manipulation. It is already beginning to have some effect as we hear informed voices warning us of possibility of ‘boomerang’ and even finding merit in Chinese claims.

Dolam is a pasture, grazing rights and permits for which have been traditionally controlled by Bhutan. Chinese on their part have been intimidating the grazers thereby shrinking the area to bolster their claim. Sikkimese documents describe Mt Gipmochi as Batang La, reinforcing our position, stand-offs is hardly a way to resolve delicate issue of tri-junction. In any case, what is the hurry to construct a road in unsettled pasture, where three claimants differ on its extent and there is an informal stand still agreement? If legal manipulation and cartographic aggression is going to be the new normal than we should focus on building matching capability using historic literature and local academia. Litigation in on going compensation cases in Sikkim High Court particularly recent judgement awarding compensation and revenue records need to be analysed, referenced and digitised.

It would be in order to correct the misperception that China, after they get to Zompleri ridge line, can roll down to Siliguri corridor. Treacherous mountainous jungle terrain and total absence of connectivity limits application of force levels and will reduce it to a slogging crawl. Such offensives need logistic sustenance, narrow Chumbi valley, dominated on both flanks, with limited deployment spaces and acclimatisation challenges is a virtual death trap. While granting credit to Chinese for favourable force ratios, its actual efficacy has to be discounted as force multipliers have severe limitation in application due to weather and terrain.

Though not immediate, it is a potent threat in the long term, above all, we have obligations to our neighbour and cannot be bullied into giving up our justified claim. Wisdom lies in nuanced backing off, which can be orchestrated as three step disengagement. India can start by pulling back to an agreed interim phase line, followed by Chinese disengagement and finally India completing the process. Embarrassment can be further minimised by finding low level scape goats, after all it was done at Sansha (Spartly).

DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the author's own.

[Karthik S]

Wion is making a revelation that corrupt MoFos in the TN govt (JJ one) facilitated illegal export of Monazite mineral to China. Nearly 70% of Monazite found in Earth is in India, and most of it is found in TN.

[Pulikeshi]

The shrillness of Gobar Times and CGTN etc. just proves that these clowns could not run a municipality in India!
See now they expect India to help them save H&D just like the Paki's and come up with a solution that will make them victorious on paper!
Ironically, their stlategely is going to ensure India is taken seriously as a balancer of power in Asia if not the IOR.
I for one am waiting for Republic Day with ASEAN heads! The Chinese have no way to counter this...
Kejri and company have more sense or strategy than the Supleme Leadel and his kick stand the PooLA!

[g.sarkar]

Shridharji,
There were also other empires in different times. Some older ones such as the Mayan Empire, or the Roman or Byzantium Empire. Even the small nation of Japan had its own empire (absolute) till 1945. And of course the good old British Empire. Each one of them without exception thought that they were unique, favored by the gods and allowed to do anything they pleased. China is no exception. It too thinks it is the best and all the rest must revere it.
This feeling may explain the motives of their behavior, but this will not make them successful in their endeavors. Arrogance does not bring success. I remember how arrogant the Japanese had become when I first came to the US in 1986. Look at them now, the US Fu*ked their aspirations, when they had half a chance. There are many that have aspired to rule the world, few have been successful. More likely, there will be more than one nation at the top rung. This was the case before the end of WWII, when the US took over. This situation would be better than the current position of US leading a uni-polar world. IMHO, if we are not embroiled in a major conflict in 2-3 years, we cannot be dominated by China anymore. Modiji is taking the right steps for the economy and the military. It is quite possible that China has already missed the bus, it can rule and exploit smaller/weaker Asian and African nations, but this will not give them the achievements that they desire. The age of good old colonial exploitation is over.
Gautam

[niran]

Um - in 10 days the narrative on this thread has moved from impending war and great punishment from China to agreed settlement and victory for China. What exactly leads to such conclusions?

As far as I can tell there is still a standoff out there. No agreement has been reached. The rhetoric from China has either abated or has been covered over by increasingly confident and more accurate Indian media articles.

a week ago Cheeni propagandu declared
"Mudi accepts IA crossed over to Cheen and begs for forgiveness"
"XI in his most magnanimous self befitting a son of Heaven forgave"
"Doval is coming with a message of pardon begging and huge tribute"
Cheen H&D restored, Indians taught a lesson and shown their places, (YAY) Indian MSM realized their dream of Cheen whupping up modi in a shooting war is a shattered dream thus the current raag by MSM

Meanwhile the standoff continues

BTW Dovbal was there to attend NSA conference not to meet cheeni delegates

[AdityaM]

[Karthik S]

Good one.

[williams]

To summarize, since we are in a defensive position in the area and more numerous, it is nearly impossible for the Chinese to defeat us in a limited area conflict. A large area conflict is not worth the Doka La pass for the Chinese. For us Doka La is a gate that we closed for the Chinese and it is a strategic pass worth holding from a military perspective even if it exposes us to full fledged war.

China is no Pakistan. Despite the noise they will do their cost/benefit analysis before taking any action. The bully roared in the media and failed to scare us. The bully will try the sly way more than a direct confrontation. They may try to come and capture the pass in winter if we vacate it for weather reasons. But as long as we are there, they will not risk a war to capture it.

Excellent analysis Deejay. First off, most of these global times media blah blah will be watched by the junior most agents and there will be a small report somewhere down the chain. So how is that going to scare the Indian officials in the helm of military and diplomatic affairs? It is not going to do anything. What they will be interested and watching for concrete change in troop and logistic movements. It is the DDM folks who were listening to this nonsense and made a fool of themselves. But now that there is more meaty news available, they have also lost interest.

That said, I think we will have continued standoff for a bit longer this time. It will be harsh conditions for our boys in the winter. But now that we know this is going to stretch longer, we have time to plan for a long winter deployment. I was hoping that Chinese will do something foolish and we could have made a few offensive defence moves in some parts of the LAC. The biggest loss is for those pilgrims who wanted to visit Mount Kailash. But we need to live with a stalemate for now.

[Gagan]

Cheeni Miltary man ask what give Indian the courage to interfere between Bhutan and China ? Show their assumption and slap they received for suh assumption.

My impression is that 'Chinese ki fati padi hai'. The little chinese are scared of India, and so resorting to this to save face with their people back home. Pakis do this type of over the top media control and one sided discussion on TV.
Their public are not fools. Soon the war hysteria and jingoism will cool down, and real questions will be asked internally

There is no way China can win this one, this is the perfect monkey trap for them. The chinese can escalate this to any extent they like, India can more than match them on this. Militarily their situation is untenable. Politically, all nations in the region have seen how India has come to the rescue of Bhutan against Chinese bullying, this is going to build up a lot of respect for India. Ultimately, the fact that china has border disputes with all its neighbours, an over the top foreign policy, and general behaviour of a little bully will weigh down on it.

[Gagan]

Basically, the chinese were caught off guard completely. They got caught in their own rhetoric of being supreme.
Again I say, the chinese can escalate this to any extent, including all out war, including nuclear exchange, and still they can not win. India will match them all the way.

What it means is that now, India will have to pursue its interst and interfere politically in the chinese power structure to ensure that Indian interests are protected, that a government that pursues good relations with India be present in beijing. India will have to do this and cultivate such leadership in the CCP

The chinese tried to interfere politically within India and Bhutan when this started. Their silly ham-handed approach didn't work. Who were these idiots trying to cultivate in india? Pappu or the Commies ?
Sun Tsu is truly dead, only Su Su is being practiced by the Chinese foreign ministry here

[SSridhar]

Wion is making a revelation that corrupt MoFos in the TN govt (JJ one) facilitated illegal export of Monazite mineral to China. Nearly 70% of Monazite found in Earth is in India, and most of it is found in TN.

And, a lot of it is gone . . .

[JE Menon]

>>Again I say, the chinese can escalate this to any extent, including all out war, including nuclear exchange, and still they can not win. India will match them all the way.

That is the essence, captured in one sentence and I had mentioned this at the beginning of this business that in worst case scenario both civilisations will continue to live on in their diasporas. I should have added, in countries that survive this.

Fact of the matter is this: the Chinese started believing in their own bullshit. Not in the Bhutanese plateau alone, but more aggressively so in the South China Sea. The new island build-up should have been stopped in its tracks at the outset by the US, but it did not - which goes to demonstrate the weakening of American power, and more subtly, both American and European subservience to temporary gain politically and economically. But for whatever reason, they did not put a stop to it. Russia, which is equally if not more wary about China the brotherly love notwithstanding, could not do much about that itself.

So China got emboldened. Same scenario as late 1930s Europe, same expansionist impulse, similar self-aggrandizing propaganda, similar quality of sheeple - what is missing is a coalescing agent like a proper ideology. Communism does not cut it. Confucianism is dangerous internally. But a sort of bureaucratic imperialism may be it, if given shape and force as Xi is trying to do... The problem is that the Communist Party has no choice, they have to follow this route...

We are only at the beginning. These are the opening shots in a game that will last a while. Expect outright major power military skirmishing in the short-to medium term and sustained confrontation in the long term (I include India in this).

[Singha]

namo is readying next stage of the monkey trap ...

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 497883.cms

NEW DELHI: In perhaps the most significant exposition of its 'Act East' policy, India will invite the heads of state or government of all 10 Asean nations for the Republic Day parade and celebrations next year. Asean is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and has as members Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Republic Day 2018 will be the first time ever that so many leaders will together be chief guests at the parade which showcases India's military might.

[chola]

The Wall Street Journal's piece on Chinese nationalism. IMHO, an illuminating take on where all of this comes from.

A generation from the old backwards PRC that kissed the White Man's arse and who really built modern China by aping the West is being replaced by a generation growing up spoiled who travel and school freely in the West and thus see far more warts in the West. Familiarity breeds contempt.

[SSridhar]

Shridharji,
There were also other empires in different times. Some older ones such as the Mayan Empire, or the Roman or Byzantium Empire. Even the small nation of Japan had its own empire (absolute) till 1945. And of course the good old British Empire. Each one of them without exception thought that they were unique, favored by the gods and allowed to do anything they pleased. China is no exception. It too thinks it is the best and all the rest must revere it.

Absolutely, Gautam ji. No doubt. But, the fact is that all those Empires died a natural death and along with that death whatever ideology they possessed also got buried deep. But, the Chinese have been different. Even Communism did not eradicate this belief that they were born to rule and that their civilization was the highest level. Even Mao's decade-long Cultural Revolution, which wanted to discard every old attitude, custom, belief etc did not remove the idea of 'tian xia'. Such deep roots it has. Top communist leaders like Mao, Zhou, Lin Biao, Liu Shaoqi et al who laid the foundation for PRC, believed in the concept.

They believe that their demand of vassalship from another country is for the common good of both, both parties will get benefited from the sense of peace & security that would follow once a country pays its tributes to the Emperor and trade with China would vastly benefit the small country. They believe that their demands to bow in front of the Emperor are truly benign in nature and mutually beneficial. One can see that unwavering attitude in Chinese diplomatic behaviour even today. That is why, the Chinese Foreign Minister has the temerity to tell his Filippino counterpart, even after the unambiguous verdict of the UNCLOS striking down the imaginative & arbitrary nine-dash line, that Philippines has to do only joint exploitation of oil & gas with China even within the EEZ of the Philippines! Philippines succumbs meekly even after knowing what happened to a similar joint venture project between Japan & China in East China Sea. After all, tributaryship is a small price to pay for peace, security and benevolence from the Emperor. Today, the Emperor is replaced by the President and his Politburo. The commonfolk Han does believe in the proposition.

I have been belabouring this point because it is the theoretical foundation on which irredentist & hegemonic claims of China are made.

[Deans]

Something we've missed and which may have a lot of implications for China's OBOR policy and its territorial disputes, is Sri Lanka standing up to China and renegotiating the port contract. China wanted Hambantota port (and the 10,000 acre SEZ) handed over to China to be used almost as sovereign Chinese territory. What they have actually got is a 70% stake in a JV to run the port (which, given its volume of traffic almost guarantees no profit) and a flat refusal to allow any naval vessel to dock at the port. The Sri Lankan navy will handle security.
This may well be a template for other small countries, if they renege on Chinese OBOR loans. There might be a similar push-back from Myanmar which also has a Chinese funded white elephant port it cant pay for.

[schinnas]

Wion is making a revelation that corrupt MoFos in the TN govt (JJ one) facilitated illegal export of Monazite mineral to China. Nearly 70% of Monazite found in Earth is in India, and most of it is found in TN.

And, a lot of it is gone . . .

It is still going on. Shamelessly due to corruption at mid and lower level officials. Very soon, we can say good bye to our monazite and some thorium reserves.

I wonder if IB and Pigeon are over concerned with terrorism and naxal problem and not sending clear message on this?

[schinnas]

Something we've missed and which may have a lot of implications for China's OBOR policy and its territorial disputes, is Sri Lanka standing up to China and renegotiating the port contract. China wanted Hambantota port (and the 10,000 acre SEZ) handed over to China to be used almost as sovereign Chinese territory. What they have actually got is a 70% stake in a JV to run the port (which, given its volume of traffic almost guarantees no profit) and a flat refusal to allow any naval vessel to dock at the port. The Sri Lankan navy will handle security.
This may well be a template for other small countries, if they renege on Chinese OBOR loans. There might be a similar push-back from Myanmar which also has a Chinese funded white elephant port it cant pay for.

Aha! Talk about asymmetric warfare. If it takes 2Billion for China to invest in white elephant projects with an aim for land grab or port grab, by spending a hundredth of the amount, we can create enough ruckus to ensure that the final settlement would be something that wouldn't have strategic implication for us.

We can do it in our neighborhood as we have lot of cards and sizeable trade and very material people to people and cultural connections. We just need to take these one more step further by institutionalizing our influence. By academic /University partnerships, exchange of professors, etc, etc.

If only Sri Lanka gets road and rail connectivity with India, our trade and tourism relations will grow to a stage where no power on Earth can wean Sri Lanka away from us.

[UlanBatori]

I feel China has pressed the pause button on the Doklam affair to focus on the Korean Peninsula.

And I hope that this pause is used for some long-overdue patrols and construction in Occupied Doklam (which I realize is actually actually DhoKarRam (tly saying that in mandalin), far north of the present tamasha. India needs to push back this "disputed border" to the suburbs of Dera BeantSingh, mispronounced as Bei-jing.

As for GobarTimes, it seems to have no moderator unlike PeeAref. What is being quoted as deep Chinese Government Policy is unmoderated ranting from brats caught stealing and exposed to the world as cowardly bullies.
Anyway, let's stop referring to this as an India-China Border Dispute. It is not. It is a Chinese aggression against Bhutan, which is beating the Mao pajamas off China.

[ldev]

They believe that their demand of vassalship from another country is for the common good of both, both parties will get benefited from the sense of peace & security that would follow once a country pays its tributes to the Emperor and trade with China would vastly benefit the small country......

I have been belabouring this point because it is the theoretical foundation on which irredentist & hegemonic claims of China are made.

Also China refers to itself as "Zhonggou", the Middle Kingdom which can also be interpreted as the "Central Kingdom" i.e. China is the center of the world, all other nations which surround it, are not as good as it, and therefore have to be/will be subservient to it. It is a much more ancient concept which goes back in time far more than "American exceptionalism", but conceptually it is the same. Also anecdotally, this concept seems to be buried just below the surface in a lot of Chinese vs "American Exceptionalism" which only the US elite/establishment appear to believe in. Historically in the times when there were independent states in what is China, the middle kingdom referred to the central kingdom along the banks of the Yellow River. This Middle Kingdom was the most powerful and the surrounding kingdoms were subservient to it and paid tribute to it. And after China became a unified country, the term Middle Kingdom began referring to the country as a whole and the concept of subservience and tribute is now being applied by China to it's neighbors.

You are correct, because if China did treat it's relations with other countries on the basis of mutual respect, and given it's manufacturing prowess, the whole region could benefit greatly. But because of this deep seated belief in their own "central place" among all nations, as you say, they have this theoretical foundation on which their irredentist and aggressive claims are made and cause conflict with all it's neighbors.

[UlanBatori]

Sri Lanka standing up

And absolutely with no interference or instigation from India!

What is coming through all this discussion is people all over the world finding out the real nature of "modern" China. It is a mighty fortress built on zero moral principle. Anyone who has dealt with a few of the "creme de la creme" of China realizes that very soon. Consider this:

1) Many professors in top US univs look at Chinese applications with deep suspicion, many have unofficially put an automatic reject policy. This is not racism etc, but hard-learned experience. GRE scores, TOEFL scores etc have no relation to actual performance or knowledge of the applicant. Who shows up may not even BE the applicant. Their system is totally rotten.

2) US stock evaluation organizations (such as AAII, Am. Assoc. of Individual Investors) simply prohibit buying Chinese stocks for their Model Portfolios because per them, the Chinese corporate governance is totally opaque, the numbers are bogus.

Sure there are hundreds of millions of very hard-working people in China but I wonder how many honest people can be left there. Maybe breaking rocks in the Gobi, or slaving in sweatshops run by the PLA.

[IndraD]

One little pooch from gaarus here..when ever Cheen passes another technology to NoKo promptly displayed by NoKo through tests, US flies some fighter jet sorties over Korean peninsula. What for? Who cares for US flying planes any where? Neither China nor NoKo pay 2 hoots! Why this useless exercise who is audience here?

[ldev]

One other issue to consider is whether to trade and how to trade with China when there are at the same time boundary/security issues with the country. Other countries apparently co-exist with China with ongoing boundary/security issues and booming trade all at the same time. Consider Taiwan, Japan, the ASEAN bloc and the US with all of whom China has major security issues and yet trade continues to grow exponentially. I think India has to do a very cool headed assessment of the benefits/downsides of trade with China with ongoing/concurrent boundary confrontations. Because of the deep seated Zhonggou belief in the Chinese, I really wonder whether even the threat of punitive trade sanctions will have any effect on Chinese behavior. And at the present time of total Chinese exports of ~2.3 trillion, only about $60 billion go to India, about 2.5%. The sting of course is the potential for the growth of these exports and being locked out of the Indian market. And so the Indian assessment has to be rational and not emotional. China is quite able to have a boundary dispute whether on land or sea with a country and have a booming trade relationship with the same country at the same time. I think present GOI with Modi is quite adept at doing the same, after all Modi is not a Gujju for nothing!!

[kit]

Guys , as i said before the Doklam pass will be a mini siachen that India will defend at all costs perennially ! But there is more to it. China unwittingly has done us a huge favor ! . Standing up to the Chinese and making them lose face will shore up Indias credibility and standing among all Asian ( and western ) countries seeking a country that can really stand up to the dragon and stare it down . This is indeed a PR moment for the MEA !

[kit]

Something we've missed and which may have a lot of implications for China's OBOR policy and its territorial disputes, is Sri Lanka standing up to China and renegotiating the port contract. China wanted Hambantota port (and the 10,000 acre SEZ) handed over to China to be used almost as sovereign Chinese territory. What they have actually got is a 70% stake in a JV to run the port (which, given its volume of traffic almost guarantees no profit) and a flat refusal to allow any naval vessel to dock at the port. The Sri Lankan navy will handle security.
This may well be a template for other small countries, if they renege on Chinese OBOR loans. There might be a similar push-back from Myanmar which also has a Chinese funded white elephant port it cant pay for.

Aha! Talk about asymmetric warfare. If it takes 2Billion for China to invest in white elephant projects with an aim for land grab or port grab, by spending a hundredth of the amount, we can create enough ruckus to ensure that the final settlement would be something that wouldn't have strategic implication for us.

We can do it in our neighborhood as we have lot of cards and sizeable trade and very material people to people and cultural connections. We just need to take these one more step further by institutionalizing our influence. By academic /University partnerships, exchange of professors, etc, etc.

If only Sri Lanka gets road and rail connectivity with India, our trade and tourism relations will grow to a stage where no power on Earth can wean Sri Lanka away from us.

Quite possible .. if a tunnel is possible between france and England ., Sri Lanka can be connected with the Indian mainland by bridges and undersea tunnels !

[schinnas]

One little pooch from gaarus here..when ever Cheen passes another technology to NoKo promptly displayed by NoKo through tests, US flies some fighter jet sorties over Korean peninsula. What for? Who cares for US flying planes any where? Neither China nor NoKo pay 2 hoots! Why this useless exercise who is audience here?

It is more of a reaffirmation to SoKo and Japan and to send a message to not precipitate matters. However, you are right that US has failed miserably to prevent Chinese from transferring middle and nuke tech to NoKo.

Trump seems to be outraged here....but what he is going to do remains to be seen as their economic sanctions on NoKo do not work as long as Chinese continue their trade with NoKo.

[shiv]

A beautiful lesson in why dhoti shivering is counter productive especially in dealing with pompous oiseaules like the ChiComs

[ldev]

Quite possible .. if a tunnel is possible between france and England ., Sri Lanka can be connected with the Indian mainland by bridges and undersea tunnels !

Not only Sri Lanka, I would say that based on my earlier post about being rational in dealing with China, that if China wants to extend it's high speed rail line which it is building to Bangkok to India via Myanmar, India should be OK with it. However, India should continue to oppose the CPEC because it passes through territory claimed by India and continue to oppose China on the boundary issue. In earlier years because of the LTTE issue, India would not have wanted that kind of rail/road connectivity with Sri Lanka. However the Indian security apparatus has to become smart so that trade and business is promoted via connectivity but security is also taken care off. Even at the height of the IRA problems, trade and people movement continued normally from the UK to Ireland but British security services kept a close watch. Connectivity with Pakistan is a separate issue, not on the cards for now. But IMO with China and Sri Lanka, connectivity should be encouraged while at the same time ensuring monitoring of security threats that this connectivity could entail.

[Rudraksh]

One other issue to consider is whether to trade and how to trade with China when there are at the same time boundary/security issues with the country. Other countries apparently co-exist with China with ongoing boundary/security issues and booming trade all at the same time. Consider Taiwan, Japan, the ASEAN bloc and the US with all of whom China has major security issues and yet trade continues to grow exponentially. I think India has to do a very cool headed assessment of the benefits/downsides of trade with China with ongoing/concurrent boundary confrontations. Because of the deep seated Zhonggou belief in the Chinese, I really wonder whether even the threat of punitive trade sanctions will have any effect on Chinese behavior. And at the present time of total Chinese exports of ~2.3 trillion, only about $60 billion go to India, about 2.5%. The sting of course is the potential for the growth of these exports and being locked out of the Indian market. And so the Indian assessment has to be rational and not emotional. China is quite able to have a boundary dispute whether on land or sea with a country and have a booming trade relationship with the same country at the same time. I think present GOI with Modi is quite adept at doing the same, after all Modi is not a Gujju for nothing!!

That figure is not correct. The Chinese exports to India will be north of $100 billion. $60 billion is just the invoiced value, rest of the money is routed via hawala. Even lowly importers sitting in tier 2 cities are doing this. God knows how. Almost everything you use these days is made in PRC, even if it says otherwise! If all Chinese imports are imported by paying due custom duties, 90% will become non viable. Indian made items lose out to Chinese only because of this loop hole.

[shiv]

if China wants to extend it's high speed rail line which it is building to Bangkok to India via Myanmar, India should be OK with it.

Having spent countless hours looking at the geography of the region bordering Myanmar I would be curious to see how and where the Chinese could build such a railway running in an east west direction while the terrain is densely forested mountains in a north south direction.

High speed railway lines need long straight stretches and gentle curves and knowing Chinese perfidy I expect that they would make a grandiose project like CPEC and do a short local city to city stretch to get a toehold, get the nation in debt and then do what they want after that. The Chinese have themselves not managed to build any railway line directly to Tibet from the eastern cities. They have skirted the mountains and gone north

[ldev]

knowing Chinese perfidy I expect that they would make a grandiose project like CPEC and do a short local city to city stretch to get a toehold, get the nation in debt and then do what they want after that.

AFAIK, they are doing something similar in Thailand, building a HSR from Bangkok to the Laos border for now and then separate projects in Laos, with the objective of ultimately tying it all these separate pieces together to the Chinese HSR system.