Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[pankajs]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... ve_(China)

Recently, Zhang Guobao the head of the National Energy Administration also stated that there will be a third phase that will expand reserves by 204 million barrels with the goal in 2009 of increasing China's SPR to 90 days of supply by 2020.

90 days supply is the target.

[rsingh]

That blast in sea near digha. .......any chance of anti sub mines exploding.but blasts were too powerful.

[SriKumar]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic ... ve_(China)

Recently, Zhang Guobao the head of the National Energy Administration also stated that there will be a third phase that will expand reserves by 204 million barrels with the goal in 2009 of increasing China's SPR to 90 days of supply by 2020.

90 days supply is the target.

At 200 million barrels of oil, and a civilian consumption of 12 million per day, that's 17 days of oil supply. THe above therefore, must be solely military strategic reserve. I am sure their military would have planned for its own needs. My thinking was more about what happens to their economy when oil consumption is curtailed significantly- how bad is it when 20% (say) of the commuters cannot drive to work, or x % of factories shut down or output reduces etc. Short terms (say 2-4 weeks)- no problem, people recover, longer term (say 2-3 months)- problem.

[pankajs]

Don't go by the old figure. Its already upwards of 400 million. The target is 90 day reserve.

[SriKumar]

Even if it is 400 million, is only about 30 days if the civilian economy is included. The above figures (90 days) are for miltiary only.

[pankajs]

China has a substantial oil industry of its own and it has supply pipelines from Russia and Central Asia. Daily consumption may not be the right number to use in the denominator. It will have to be the net import from Sea.

[pankajs]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china ... SKBN1840CJ

China brought in 34.39 million tonnes of crude oil last month, or about 8.37 million barrels per day (bpd), down nearly 9 percent from March’s 9.17 million bpd, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs.

There one has to account for
1. Seasonal variations in demand. March and April may not be representative.
2. How much of the import was from Russia and Central Asia.

[UlanBatori]

This is why a Vietnam/India joint operation is needed, to draw the 3/4 circle from Hani, past Kunming to come back south well west of Arunachal. Oil and water sealed off. First, direct thrusts from Hanoi and Aizawl Kunming to close off the oil, and then expand to include the headwaters region. India needs some large-capacity, fairly short range aircraft for quick paratrooper/SOF delivery. Think 2 divisions moving 300 miles in one day, with intermediate stops to deliver artillery, armor and supplies, as the force leaps ahead mostly over airspace-secured areas/ river-ridge obstacles. The D-Day operation used gliders, but had extremely heavy losses. India in EP used helicopters, but ground was already de-Paki-ed for the most part by fear of the Mukti Bahini, so that it was possible to get around paki concentrations.

[SriKumar]

China has a substantial oil industry of its own and it has supply pipelines from Russia and Central Asia. Daily consumption may not be the right number to use in the denominator. It will have to be the net import from Sea.

^^ I did allude to this (overland routes) in my earlier post above.

My point is that oil interdiction affecting their military is less of an issue than for its civilian economy. There will be a tipping point (in terms of duration) beyond which it will have an effect- but not prior to that. So any action will have to be sustained for that long, but even actions resulting in half-measures on this front will have some effect. [Saw your post about numbers- all that does is extend the time duration a bit more]. The ultimate target here might not be military, rather it might be the economic machine, is where I am coming from.

[deWalker]

I remember when AB Vajpayee visited China as PM, the Chinese tested a ballistic missile, a major diplomatic in-your-face (we replied in kind on a subsequent reciprocal visit). If the standoff continues through the BRICS summit, I'm certain they will try a similar stunt. We should be all ready to test fire an Agni-V, even when Modi is abroad.

Also, Modi can use excuse of shuddh-shakahaari, Poornima-Chaand in the adhika-maasam, also year of the chicken BS, so need my special diet and chef, what to do SDREs are like this onlee.

Diwakar

[Peregrine]

can we cross check with the Govt of japan/soko/taiwan if the cargo manifest checks out wrt to destination?

I am sure we can setup a hotline to their consulates to get this info within hours?

if proven fake we nab the rats!! detain them and redirect them to indian ports where we loot and use the oil. tell iran to stop shipping to china for the duration of war or risk getting hurt in the melee.



we can also take a leaf from the british book by commisioning 'privateers' who will fly under their own flag of piracy and commerce raid ships bound toward cheen. they hit the spanish galleons that way.

Singha Ji :

Sir Ji, a Cargo on the High Seas bound for Japn or S KoreaTaiwan will be "Sold" a few days after "Clearing" Singapore and proceeding towards Taiwan.

The "Consulates" will have no knowledge about the manifest as it not the manifest but the "Bilti" i.e. Bill of Lading that is "SOLD".
Cheers

[KLNMurthy]

Agreement would include the Chinese troop going back to their base taking their road building equipment with then and clearing of the latest build. Chinese patrol would still be allowed because the status is still in dispute. It would be return to the status before say May 2017.

That would be better than both armies sitting on Doklam.

No agreement or joint declaration till China stops supporting and protecting terrorists. And NSG.

It is interesting to me that on this forum, amid all brave talk of conquering Tibet etc., there has been no mention of China's brazen protection of Hafiz Saeed. Are we just running after the next shiny object that our enemies dangle at us and losing sight of our interests?

Let me anticipate the objection about mixing different issues by noting that we can mix any damn things we please if it suits us and upsets the enemy.

[pankajs]

^
You seem to forget Bhutan. It is certainly not in India interest to prolong the Doklam standoff if China offers to restore the status of before May 2017. One must not put ones friends in awkward position just to score a point with a third party. That is bad politics. If China agrees to such a pullback / restoration MAD will agree to it promptly.

As I recall now, this is also India official position on the stand off. All other logic / course of action can be discussed but have no bearing on the current situation.

[Gagan]

WRT the 4-5 radar sites in close proximity to the Tibet-Arunachal and Tibet-Sikkim border, Can India deploy permanant fixed Jammers to constantly radiate jamming signals at these radars.

The thing is that these radars will have detected a pattern of IAF fighter flight tracks by now, and the Chinese will probably know ingress and egress routes and can deploy SAM / MANPADs along those routes.

In war, these can be designated priority 1 targets and taken out, but before the shooting starts, can these be Jammed?

[fanne]

I doubt the planes will be going into Chinese territory. So then where is the question of Ingress/egress. For short ranged fighters (21/27) you can chart out almost the shortest route to target (and the routes). For long ranged planes, in the age of satellite you can be sure they have carefully chosen path that avoids all obstacle. During Kargil, per many sources, pilots first virtually flew the planes before flowing it in real.

[shiv]

can these be Jammed?

They look like AESA radars which will be frequency agile and difficult to jam. Not sure but I think one would need a jammer that produces an entire spectrum of signals - if such exists

That apart - the IAF will surely use decoys on "expected routes" and go in from elsewhere. Just a guess anyhow.

[KLNMurthy]

^
You seem to forget Bhutan. It is certainly not in India interest to prolong the Doklam standoff if China offers to restore the status of before May 2017. One must not put ones friends in awkward position just to score a point with a third party. That is bad politics. If China agrees to such a pullback / restoration MAD will agree to it promptly.

As I recall now, this is also India official position on the stand off. All other logic / course of action can be discussed but have no bearing on the current situation.

We want India to be a superpower or something like that? Then first we should learn to say, it has a bearing if we bloody well say it has a bearing. That's the difference between a powerful people and those who can't be anything more than obedient schoolchildren who grow up to be obedient clerks. Why do you think China has the nerve to bully India constantly?

Chinese are not going to offer anything. And why do we think it would be awkward for anyone, especially a friend, to support a stand against terrorism? Are we asking them to support slavery or genocide? What is awkward about opposing terrorism? Is it an issue only for India?

It is a mystery to me why we are so shy about beating the drum about China's protection of terrorists. At least let's tell Trump and maybe he will tweet about it.

[Gagan]

I doubt the planes will be going into Chinese territory.

Arrey nahi,
They are practicing bombing runs and DPSA missions, Air interdiction/superiority all over Tibet
Trusted info

[fanne]

If Iaf is not doing that much (and more), it is not professional enough. The permanently based ones must have practices against known targets and situation. New formations moved from west maybe practicing new drills.

[vasu raya]

if there is an oil slick in the Malacca straits, with Subs surfacing during their transit there, will it become easy for P8Is to detect them with its hydrocarbon sensors? or the ancheoic tiles would be hygroscopic or oil repulsive and not catch on the grease

[pankajs]

^
You seem to forget Bhutan. It is certainly not in India interest to prolong the Doklam standoff if China offers to restore the status of before May 2017. One must not put ones friends in awkward position just to score a point with a third party. That is bad politics. If China agrees to such a pullback / restoration MAD will agree to it promptly.

As I recall now, this is also India official position on the stand off. All other logic / course of action can be discussed but have no bearing on the current situation.

Chinese are not going to offer anything. And why do we think it would be awkward for anyone, especially a friend, to support a stand against terrorism? Are we asking them to support slavery or genocide? What is awkward about opposing terrorism? Is it an issue only for India?

It is a mystery to me why we are so shy about beating the drum about China's protection of terrorists. At least let's tell Trump and maybe he will tweet about it.

If the Chinese don't offer anything we will remain in the current posture.

It was India's proposal to go back to the previous status. So what do you think will happen if the Chinese are willing? My bets is GOI/MAD will roll back ASAP. Don't need to believe me just check our MEA statements.

This is about a disputed area between Bhutan and China. India is there only to help restore the status and this has been stated clearly by India. This standoff is not about terrorism or genocide or slavery? Bhutan can back us on terrorism or slavery or genocide even without us sitting at Dokalam. It can back us as well or better at Pangong Tso where an incident happened after Doklam.

As I said before we can discuss all options we want but those options have no bearing on the current situation. GOI has already committed to withdraw simultaneously with a Chinese withdrawal from Doklam.

[SriKumar]

Yes, this has been India's stated position that India will withdraw as long as Chinese troops/road construction crew withdraw. This seems to be the least that India can request of China, and is an eminently reasonable position (IMHO) to take given all the nastiness that has come from China towards India in the past 5-8 years in terms of numerous border transgressions- once during a state visit from XI, denial of entry into specific international groups, stapled visas, no visas for Arunachalis, denial of visa to general who served in J&K, terrorism, Hafeez Saeed, establishing a base in Pakistan and now a 'civilian' base in Sri Lanka (the list is long and not becoming of a nation that purports to be a friendly neighbor).

[Suresh S]

I think if china withdraws what Pankaj says is likely to happen our govt said so. But my own position is similar to KLN Murthy,s but than I do not run the govt

[fanne]

Btw chicom af has also increased number of planes and flights in Tibet. That info was in some msm

[KLNMurthy]

I think if china withdraws what Pankaj says is likely to happen our govt said so. But my own position is similar to KLN Murthy,s but than I do not run the govt

Yes I would shamelessly move the goalposts and keep adding demands if the Chinese even give an inch. Let them get hysterical and produce more racist videos. Let them generate even more bombast in bad English and look even more ridiculous.

Or let them start a shooting war. Or a trade war. We'll find out who will teach a lesson and who will learn it. Maybe the lesson will include what it means to make an enemy of India, the Ajayashatru and Yudhishtira among countries.

But then I don't run tbe GOI.

[UlanBatori]

Yes, it is a gross failure to not raise the issues of terrorism and Naxalite support by China. We offer friendship, the reptiles export terror.

[Bishwa]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... epage=true

This article has some stats on China's oil imports and routes

[UlanBatori]

The thing about pushing a few more hundred meters is that India can announce a withdrawal and simply push into "disputed" territory where the reptiles think they are in control. IOW, move the LAC a bit. I do hope IA is doing that all the time without my advice, and without any advertisement. Today, if Chinese scream "intrusion" they have no credibility.

[Suraj]

Agreement would include the Chinese troop going back to their base taking their road building equipment with then and clearing of the latest build. Chinese patrol would still be allowed because the status is still in dispute. It would be return to the status before say May 2017.

That would be better than both armies sitting on Doklam.

No agreement or joint declaration till China stops supporting and protecting terrorists. And NSG.

It is interesting to me that on this forum, amid all brave talk of conquering Tibet etc., there has been no mention of China's brazen protection of Hafiz Saeed. Are we just running after the next shiny object that our enemies dangle at us and losing sight of our interests?

Let me anticipate the objection about mixing different issues by noting that we can mix any damn things we please if it suits us and upsets the enemy.

+1

It must be understood that when you deal with a bully, your response MUST deter him from future acts. "Let's both go back to original positions" is a useless approach against a bully. You make him stop by putting a cost on his actions, ideally each time. That means we take territory and tell him to buzz off, and then take more and threaten to take even more.

When dealing with bullying, the idea of 'lets shake hands and go back to original positions' does not exist as a concept. The guy just sees it as 'I can needle him, and he'll act tough for a while but give me back everything I claim as mine anyway'.

I think people need to experience or at least have an idea of what it's like to be bullied and having taken on it, to understand the dynamics of dealing with bullying. The solutions being proposed are those of a gentlemans aggrement. It does not suit a situation with a bully, at all.

[UlanBatori]

The terms "I have black eye but he has a bloody nose AND 2 black eyes" comes 2 mind. Bully has to go home bawling for any lesson to be absorbed. Soviets understood this well at Ussuri River.

Next "intrusion" patrol needs to be allowed to come in deep - and then find themselves encircled with a large force, who make them disarm, remove boots, surrender their smartphones and all comm sets and weapons, and walk back to their camp. With videos posted far and wide on fB etc.

[SSridhar]

More Doklam-like incidents possible in future: Army chief - PTI

China is attempting to “change the status quo” on its border with India and incidents like the ongoing stand-off in the Doklam area are likely to “increase” in future, Army Chief General Bipin Rawat said today.

“The recent stand-off in the Doklam plateau by the Chinese side attempting to change the status quo are issues which we need to be wary about, and I think such kind of incidents are likely to increase in the future,” Rawat said.

He was delivering the General B C Joshi Memorial Lecture on ‘India’s Challenges in the Current Geo-Strategic Construct’ organised by the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies of Savitribai Phule Pune University here this evening.

“Pockets of dispute and contested claims to the territory continue to exist. These are due to differing perceptions on the alignments of the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

“Transgressions across Line of Actual Control do happen and sometimes they do lead to some kind of misunderstanding between the forward troops...however, we do have joint mechanisms in place to address such situations,” said Rawat.

He said that during the flag meetings with Chinese counterparts, the Indian Army keeps insisting that both sides should return to the pre-June 16 positions (before the stand- off began), but no resolution has been found yet.

“Now it is happening at the diplomatic and political level, as it needs to be resolved diplomatically and through political initiatives,” he said.

Chinese armed forces have made significant progress in capabilities for mobilisation, application and sustenance of operations, particularly in the Tibet autonomous region of China, he noted.

“This is due to the development of force infrastructure of military significance. Their force reorganisation along with developing capabilities in space and network-centric warfare is likely to provide them greater synergy in force application,” Rawat said.

Later, speaking to reporters and explaining his statement that incidents like Doklam are likely to “increase”, Rawat said, “We should not be complacent. Let us say that this stand-off is resolved, but our troops should not feel that it can not happen again in different sector.

“It is always better to be prepared and alert than think that this will not happen again. So my message to troops is that do not let your guard down,” the Army Chief added.

China continues to enhance its influence in the regional security environment, he said.

“It is doing so by increasing defence and economic partnerships in the neighbourhood, especially in Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passing through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) challenges India’s sovereignty,” he stated.

Confirmation for annual joint military exercises with China is still awaited this year, he said.

“We have been doing the exercise every year. One year our team goes to China and on the second year, their team comes to us. While this time the exercise is planned in October, it is not being confirmed (from their side) yet, whether it will take place or not,” he said.

Asked if the ongoing stand-off was the reason for this, Rawat said, “It could be, but we are not sure.”

[Gagan]

IA needs to deploy non-lethal measures at the LAC and IB
Gobar Bombs, Chilli Bombs, Water cannons, Holi permanant colours - from a chinese source etc

[vijaykarthik]

On the topic of floods - has anyone ever heard of floods in Tibet? I don't recall reading about floods in Tibet ever. Tibet is in the shadow of the Himalayas and clouds tend to dump rain on this side. Not much rain on the other and I guess whatever rain there is simply freezes and sits pretty as permafrost. I guess there must be some melting in summer - but floods? Don't know.

Will have to be almost impossible. The Himalayas will almost block them with their avg 4.5KM altitude. Tibet (not unlike Leh, Spiti etc) lies on the leeward side and the mountains will ensure that the region is always arid and desert like with very little option of crops / ityadi / yada yada. Revenge of geography!

[RCase]

IA needs to deploy non-lethal measures at the LAC and IB
Gobar Bombs, Chilli Bombs, Water cannons, Holi permanant colours - from a chinese source etc

Instead, I propose installing giant TVs (non-Chinese make) playing po.n 24x7. Can further enhance their testicular vein enlargement issues. For good measure supply them with sugary colas too.

[RCase]

It is high time we ingress parts of PoK/CoK and insist that cleally it is Indian territory. Same should be done in Tibet with references to Shiva that cleally states that he will be residing in Mt. Kailash, which is part of Bharat.

[Gagan]

Maybe someone can distribute Chinese Mastram for the increased vigour of the Pilla soldiers

Pilla = PLA

[Gagan]

Imagine the scene from Chinese Mastram

Xi took his enlarged throbbing member out, which measured a full 2 inches in size!!!
Miss Fifi Chen, gasped, "Holy Mao, that is the biggest duck I have ever seen"

... you get the picture...

[RCase]

^^^
picture is vely kelear!

[Gagan]

Its a very small picture...
Micro sized...

[sanjaykumar]

Arther C. Clarke had a short story about beaming Kama sutra into soviet territory or something.

India has obviously resolved to utilise its military infrastructure to make a point or two. As the yak rider speculates India is very likely doing unto the chinese what they did unto India in the 1990s.

I really don't care if India has causes belli on its side. It would be even better if they in fact have overstepped the rules.
I suspect that is why the Chinese have gone apeshit. India is challenging them to a fight. The Chinese know they will lose.