Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[anupmisra]

WHAT abt the Chinese embassy sutiyapa? Sending alert warning for its citizens. Watch out whether it is removed. Cuz if it ain't, the game is ON...

Good catch. Meanwhile all chinis have obliged their government's diktat and exited. Darn it!! And, India has charged the chinis for dumping. Double darn it!

Han is upset.

[anupmisra]

(Meanwhile) There is no road. --Finis

A fact that chini media is.. er...forgetting to mention in its report to the public.

[anupmisra]

Just wait a few weeks. India has no incentive to withhold the terms of the agreement. It will come out as chaiwallah mutterings.

The agreement is between Bhutan and cheen. India is not party to it. India can always, and the chinis know this, walk in to Doklam. Chinis can patrol it till their feet hurt. Note that photo which the chinis keep showing where IA is on their property.

[Suraj]

Hi ramana, I wasn't saying that we don't know what happens in China after the fact. That's obviously true since the facts are available.

What I'm saying is that it's essentially impossible to read the tea leaves. Was Lin Biao's issue known beforehand ? Nope. It came out after he 'died in a plane crash'. Ditto for the rapid collapse of the Gang of Four, or even various leaders from Deng to Chou being suddenly victimized. There was no confidence that Mao himself would not be overthrown at any time during the GLF or the CR, especially during the latter when he tried to strike the Red Guards down when they went completely berserk. How many knew beforehand that Zhao Ziyang was a sympathetic reformer while Deng was the hardliner (and a decade before that Deng was the reformer to the Gang of Four's hardline position) ? All this becomes known only when it becomes known. It's hard to predict beforehand because there's no continuum of information coming out of Zhongnanhai. Right now with Eleven, we're in the beforehand phase.

Therefore, my statement is that it's not possible to guess right now as to just how strong or weak Eleven is. It's fairly equally possible that a) he's in a very strong position having purged all major opponents and b) he's walking on thin ice having built up lots of enemies biding their time.

[UlanBatori]

I seem to remember the name Liu Shao Chi. Disgraced, sent to Re-Education camp etc. By Mao. Anyone here remember what that was about?

[KLNMurthy]

Simple pooch - why is saving China's face so important to Modi? Will any of India's neighbours give two hoots about saving India's face?

It could be that NSG and massod azhar deal could have been sealed. We will have to wait till next plenary of NSG meet.

By all means wait but don't hold your breath.

[pankajs]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/internatio ... 577185.ece
‘Deal to appease domestic audiences’

In a deal that is likely to be delicately balanced, China may suspend the construction of the road, while India is likely to initiate the pullback of troops, to end the three-month old standoff in the Doklam plateau, says a former Chinese diplomat.[No one knows the exact details]

“Given the high level of sensitivity accorded to this issue, neither of the two governments in their statements of August 28, gave an impression to their domestic audiences that they were speaking from a position of weakness,” said Mao Siwei, former Chinese consul general in Kolkata, in an e-mailed response to The Hindu.

He highlighted that although both sides did not go into details in their announcements, judging from experience and common knowledge, both sides are highly likely reach consensus very soon. “First in principle China will suspend building the road and Indian troops would withdraw,” says Mr. Mao. He added: “In terms of timing, India will withdraw first and China will follow after that.”

“This is a wise choice made by the two top leaders facing tremendous extreme nationalist sentiments in both countries. China gave up the choice of war and stepped back to gain more. India decided to attend the BRICS and continue maintain normal relations with China,” observed Mr. Mao.

Deliberate ambiguity

Separately Sun Shihai, an expert on South Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Hong Kong based South China Morning Post that there was “deliberate ambiguity in the two foreign ministries’ statements”. He added that the “each side’s media will write the narrative to suit the feelings of their audiences”.

The impact of Monday’s agreement to end the Doklam crisis has echoed in the region, including East Asia.

[Suraj]

I seem to remember the name Liu Shao Chi. Disgraced, sent to Re-Education camp etc. By Mao. Anyone here remember what that was about?

Liu Shaoqi fell out with Mao much earlier, like in the early 1960s. He had concerns about the Great Leap Forward that he made the mistake of asserting publicly (Deng Xiaoping did too, but he wisely kept his mouth shut more than Liu). Liu was tortured for years during the Cultural Revolution, having his diabetes medication withheld until he was nearly dead, and finally died from pneumonia and the regular beatings. There are some famous posters from that era like this one:

The Chinese writing says "Completely smash the Liu-Deng Counter-revolutionary Effort" or something like that.


Lin Biao on the other hand, was 2nd in charge to Mao as late as mid 1970 and was a famous rah rah boy of the Cultural Revolution. A year later he was dead. Deng would have been dead too, but for Zhou En Lai's efforts to protect him.

Both Liu and Lin were Mao's anointed successors. As Confucius wisely said "Not good to be Mao's #2, because you'll soon be in deep #2"

[Vinod Ji]

It could be that NSG and massod azhar deal could have been sealed. We will have to wait till next plenary of NSG meet.

By all means wait but don't hold your breath.

I dont think Massod Azhar was even considered worthy of discussion on the other hand NSG must have been .. November is not very far & then plenary meet after that will show

[ramana]

And I am saying the past portends the future in Communist countries.
Either Xi will win or get re-educated.

My bet is on the latter.

[Suraj]

No disagreement there. Eleven is actually an interesting example. He's the last generation of Chinese leadership to have actually known the Cultural Revolution firsthand. The next generation was born too late to remember any of it, while Eleven was significantly affected - he entered his teens right at the start of Cultural Revolution. Young Eleven was sent off to the farms when his famous daddy Xi Zhongxun was purged by Mao, and spent essentially all of the Cultural Revolution in jail. You'd think he'd avoid anything that suggests a return to those times, but his actions involve essentially a return to Mao-ist single person power, as opposed to party consensus.

[SaiK]

Like CPEC, I am viewing Chinese unchallenged growth as a threat to stability (at least from our constitution and democratic nature, we would say and feel we lagged and Chinese advanced in many growth economic aspects). I'd like to see how we can neuter such threats that are partly our capability or lack of it, and how we can carry this tactical learning forward to strategic initiatives to smother the geopolitical threats. I know we all have answers, but we have no clear cut policies (not yet perhaps) put to get near 2020 vision on it.

[sudarshan]

Both Liu and Lin were Mao's anointed successors. As Confucius wisely said "Not good to be Mao's #2, because you'll soon be in deep #2"

This is true in any totalitarian regime, the #2 slot is a dangerous place to be. Not that any other spot in the hierarchy (or even being a total non-entity) is much safer. And not unlike the famous Al Qaeda #3 either.

Yezhov and Beria met with grisly ends, much like the ends they themselves fashioned for the opponents of their regimes. Loyalty to the regime is not just not a guarantee of safety, it will actually work out to the contrary. A quick purge of the loyalist, dumping all the negatives of the regime on the loyalist (and thus also "purging" the regime) is the most likely end. Stalin used Yezhov in this fashion, utilizing the negativity of the Yezhovschina (reign of terror under Yezhov) to not just finish him off, but also to gain credit for "doing away with the architect of the reign of terror." Whereas the Yezhovschina was actually a Stalinschina, with Yezhov simply following Stalin's orders.

Whoever is on top in China is in much the same situation as little fatty of N. Korea. "Purge or be purged" is the motto.

[Shanmukh]

Interesting point, Ramana-garu. Just a couple of minor nits, though

Or look at Soviet Union
- Stalin kills Trotsky, Beria

Stalin didn't kill Beria. Beria (a Georgian like Stalin) was head of NKVD till the death of Stalin & quite a close confidante, though there are rumours that he & Stalin had fallen out. He tried to become successor, but was stopped by Khruschev, Bulganin & others. Khrushchev has a nice little rant about Beria in his memoirs. Beria was condemned & shot after a Party coup against him after the Berlin Uprisings against the Soviets.

- Khrushchev dethroned by Brezhnev, Kosygin. And retires.

Khrushchev was toppled by the Supreme Soviet head, Leonid Brezhnev, & party theoretician, Mikhail Suslov - the Red Eminence. AFAIK, Kosygin wasn't party to the coup

[Suresh S]

slight correction Ramana. Stalin did not kill Beria. Beria was arrested by none other than Marshall Zhukov after stalin died.And than he was executed but not by stalin.

[KLNMurthy]

..
Murthy sir, the next Doklam type incident is declaration of war with India. The red line is set

Saar, my jingo warmongering heart has been broken too many times by thr GoI's "next time you will be really in trouble " formula with TSP.

[UlanBatori]

Wonder who is Eleven's Number 2

[ramana]

Shanmukh and SureshS,
Thanks for the details but the end was right, no?

There are purges and some times violent.

UB #2 was charged with corruption and set aside already.

[brvarsh]

It will be strategical naivety to believe Chinese do not have conflicts, or there are no one who are after Xi's neck, or Xi would not be saving his position. We need to address our conflicts and find conflicts in the enemy state. There are Chinese inside China and their expats who loathe China, there are Chinese, non Tibetans who are pro Free Tibet, who are against Communism, who are against their expansionism. India needs to bring them to the fore in its next conflict with China because it is bound to happen.

[yensoy]

HOWEVER, this time we got lucky because the road passed by a few hundred meters of our border posts so we were easily able to mobilize. What if their next attempt is at a safer distance to the East, where we cannot reach with ease? That bothers me.

This idea comes from the impression that Indian soldiers are NOT patrolling the plateau but are sitting on cold mountain with thumbs in warm musharraf watching Chinese strolling about

Are we to expect Indian soldiers to regularly patrol Bhutanese claimed territory? Can they? Are the rules of engagement clear when there is a face to face situation? Or do they take a few Bhutanese soldiers along for legal cover? If we were regularly patrolling Bhutanese territory, why did China make such a big ruckus over Doklam?

[UlanBatori]

Floods are a major loss of face. Hundreds of thousands of houses have **COLLAPSED***. Hundreds dead. Overbuilding (corruption) in floodplains and catchment areas is blamed for much of the urban flooding, along with garbage-clogged sewers. Rage building, and usually disaster on this scale requires sacrifice of some Politburo entity.

[Manish_Sharma]

Shanmukh and SureshS,
Thanks for the details but the end was right, no?

There are purges and some times violent.

UB #2 was charged with corruption and set aside already.

Amazing movie by HBO, Robert Duvall as Stalin



One amazing thing about Stalin was that he got the Post of General Secretary to do "mule work" as Trotsky taunts him. And Stalin never ever promoted himself from that post, he just kept on bringing more and more power to the post of General Secretary. Only since then the Post of General Secretary has become important universally.

[shiv]

This idea comes from the impression that Indian soldiers are NOT patrolling the plateau but are sitting on cold mountain with thumbs in warm musharraf watching Chinese strolling about

Are we to expect Indian soldiers to regularly patrol Bhutanese claimed territory? Can they?

The Indian troops are there with Bhutanese permission precisely for that purpose. This is an approximately 5x8 km flat area where men can walk and patrol. There are no border lines marked but Google Earth images of tracks and huts indicate that the Chinese were well aware of how far they could go. When they brought 'dozers they were stopped

[arun]

The Peoples Republic of China is going all out to show the Doklam “disengagement” as anything but “Mutual Disengagement”, is avoiding any talk of “Pullback of the Chinese troops” and is not disputing that India “unilaterally pulled back”.

Looking forward to our opposition Political Parties ensuring that we the electorate get to know if this was indeed a case of PM Modi’s BJP led NDA standing up to PRC bullying or a pussilanimous tail between the legs withdrawal by us:

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference on August 28, 2017 ……………

Q: We have learned that on the afternoon of August 28, the Indian border troops and equipment that illegal crossed the Sikkim sector of the China-India border have all been withdrawn to the Indian side, marking an end to the trespassing incident. Do you have more information?

A: On June 18, the Indian border troops illegally crossed the well-delimited China-India border in the Sikkim Sector into China's Dong Lang area. China has lodged representations with the Indian side many times through diplomatic channels, made the facts and truth of this situation known to the international community, clarified China's solemn position and explicit demands, and urged India to immediately pull back its border troops to the India's side. In the meantime, the Chinese military has taken effective countermeasures to ensure the territorial sovereignty and legitimate rights and interests of the state.

At about 2:30 p.m. of August 28, the Indian side withdrew all its border personnel and equipment that were illegally on the Chinese territory to the Indian side. The Chinese personnel onsite have verified this situation. China will continue fulfilling its sovereign rights to safeguard territorial sovereignty in compliance with the stipulations of the border-related historical treaty.

The Chinese government attaches importance to developing good neighborly and friendly relations with India. We hope that India could earnestly honor the border-related historical treaty as well as the basic principles of international law and work with China to preserve peace and stability in the border area and promote the sound development of bilateral relations on the basis of mutual respect for each other's territorial sovereignty.

Q: Can you confirm that the Indian personnel have already left or they are in the process of leaving?

A: I am pleased to confirm that the Indian border personnel and equipment have all been withdrawn to the Indian side of the border.

Q: The Indian government's announcement is that there is a "mutual disengagement" of the troops between the two countries. You haven't mentioned the pullback of the Chinese troops. You mentioned only the pullback of the Indian troops. How do you explain?

A: The Chinese side has made it clear that the Indian border personnel and equipment that trespassed into China's territory have all been withdrawn to the Indian side of the border. The Chinese border troops continue with their patrols in the Dong Lang area. China will continue with its exercise of sovereign rights to protect territorial sovereignty in accordance with the stipulations of the border-related historical treaty.

Q: The Indian side said that it is a "mutual disengagement". Do you agree with that?

A: What I want to stress is that the Indian side withdrew all its border personnel and equipment that were illegally on the Chinese territory to the Indian side. The Chinese personnel onsite have verified this situation. The Chinese border troops continue patrolling the Dong Lang area. China will continue fulfilling its sovereign rights to safeguard territorial sovereignty in compliance with the stipulations of the border-related historical treaty. In the meantime, in light of the changing landscape on the ground, China will make necessary adjustments and deployment as it sees fit.

Q: You said that India has unilaterally pulled back from the Dong Lang area, as was asked by the Chinese side. Then you said that the Chinese side will make adjustments accordingly. Could you clarify what do you mean by that?

A: I have made myself very clear. In light of the changes on the ground, China will accordingly make necessary adjustments and deployment. I also stressed that the Chinese border troops will continue fulfilling the sovereignty rights to safeguard territorial sovereignty in compliance with the stipulations of the border-related historical treaty.

Q: Do you mean that the standoff has been amicably settled between the two countries after India's withdrawal?

A: The Indian side has withdrawn all its trespassing border personnel and equipment to the Indian side. The Chinese personnel onsite have verified this situation. China will continue fulfilling its sovereign rights to safeguard territorial sovereignty in compliance with the stipulations of the border-related historical treaty. In light of the changes on the ground, China will accordingly make necessary adjustments and deployment.

We believe that it serves the interests of China and India to resolve this incident peacefully via diplomatic means. It also demonstrates China's sincerity and attitude in preserving regional peace and stability as a responsible major country. The Chinese government values its good neighborly and friendly relations with India. We hope that India could earnestly abide by the border-related historical treaty and basic norms of international law and work with China to ensure peace and stability in the border area on the basis of mutual respect for each other's territorial sovereignty, and to promote the healthy development of bilateral relations.

From PRC Foreign Ministry:

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying's Regular Press Conference on August 28, 2017

[nandakumar]

The way the Chinese are spinning it is like this: 'Patrolling' also means 'standing still' in one place. And of course it is natural to substitute one individual with another. It still amounts to 'standing still'. This has been our definition of 'patrolling' for the common Chinese and the Indian army. But we have now changed the definition of 'patrolling' for the Indian army. Henceforth it will come to mean what it has always been in common parlance. But the definition for the common Chinese will remain unchanged. So we are telling the public "We were patrolling in the past and we will patrol in the future as well. But Indian army has withdrawn.

[CRamS]

Even ModiJi haters like Sookla, Guruswamy etc are saying this is a win for India. Congoon Manish Tiwari was saying this is an abject surrender by India. US govt mouthpieces like NYT, WP, CNN who get their inputs from see-eye-yae are mixed in their opinions, but still favoring Chincoms. My opinion is that since status quo ante is restored, which was India's main demand, India comes out ahead.

[samirdiw]

This seems to a layman like India agreeing that Doklam is mainly Chinese territory and only has a problem with Road construction. What if this agreement was at the cost of building up infrastructure in other disputed parts like Ladakh and Arunachal? None of the maps (other than Chinese) showed this area as disputed or controlled by China. Going forward many of them will start showing disputed/controlled by China etc. We may not have realized this but status quo has been tilted into China's with this issue.

If India had a defence treaty with Bhutan then what was wrong with India continuing to remain in Bhutan? What was the need for withdrawal if India and Bhutan both truly believed it to be Bhutanese territory? My understanding is that there was no road there till 2009. If the presence of Indian military there prevented both a road getting built and free patrols further down what exactly did the withdrawal achieve in return? Why not continue there? If there was a war needed to confirm the status quo then so be it.

Also if we have defense agreements with Bhutan why didn't we formally mention there would be patrols by us? China is there in Pok aren't they on Pak invite? Will they clear out because India is upset?

The road building had already stopped and if there was no written agreement then we could have withdrawn even originally and then come back when they continue to build. The Chinese ministry's statements are clearly not of someone who has given away much and trying to hide stuff.

From the beginning itself, the Indian earnestness to come to a "compromise" was very telling even at the speech by Sushma and then the later not so tough by Rajnath. Peace talks should go hand in hand with the talk to use force to defend if needed and not look like ready to compromise at the smallest offer given. It is so easy for Chinese to create a problem and then exchange that for another of their interest. Indian MEA inability to use the media to corner the Chinese shows that we haven't changed much perhaps may be little more guts than the Manmohan regime.

Why all this hidden and assumed stuff from India's side? China keeps telling it will have lots of pressure from its public when its a single party state. Shouldnt by its nature Indian govt have more pressure and shouldnt that have been played by our side? Why only Chinese face is important and not Indian's face?

A war would have ensured Chinese troops never set foot in Doklam again(not even patrol) and that existing road would have been trashed up. If we were atleast sure of achieving status quo wouldn't that have been a better route to take to achieve our strategic goals. That area is too crucial for us to have the Chinese walk around with future claims strengthened. Sure there would be some loss of life and a small GDP impact but seems like a small price to pay.

[SSridhar]

I recall what I posted on July 11, 2017

I do not think that there will even be a skirmish, let alone a war in this case. The two (or three) sides will silently establish status-quo-ante. Even, that would be a big concession to China; but, that is what I expect to happen.

China may be arrogant; it may be imperial; it may consider itself as the sole hegemonic and revisionist power in Asia (at least); it may dismiss India's pretensions to great power status contemptuously; it may not want a challenger in the form of India etc. But, it will not go to war with a nuclear power like India (despite Mao's braggadocio in another context and another era) with almost all stakes loaded against it - militarily, diplomatically & economically.

[Sanju]

Samirdw,
You're first line seems like an oxymoron. I apologize for using that term.

If India has agreed it is Chinese territory then how can we tell them what to do or not to do on their territory?

By telling them categorically - no, nyet , nahi, wenda, beda, voddu etc to their road building. We basically told them off (or f-off).

[shiv]

This image shows the difference between what we call Doklam and what the Chinese mean by Donglang. Our Doklam is a small area at the tri-junction. The Chinese claim of Donglang is a whole area extending from disputed territory north-east of what we call Doklam.


For comparison see:

[samirdiw]

Samirdw,
You're first line seems like an oxymoron. I apologize for using that term.

If India has agreed it is Chinese territory then how can we tell them what to do or not to do on their territory?

By telling them categorically - no, nyet , nahi, wenda, beda, voddu etc to their road building. We basically told them off (or f-off).

In the same way Chinese tell us not to build stuff in Arunachal. In theory, they dispute it but in all practical sense they accept it is Indian.

Thats why said mainly and not 100%.

[rajpa]

Samirdw,
You're first line seems like an oxymoron. I apologize for using that term.

If India has agreed it is Chinese territory then how can we tell them what to do or not to do on their territory?

By telling them categorically - no, nyet , nahi, wenda, beda, voddu etc to their road building. We basically told them off (or f-off).

In the same way Chinese tell us not to build stuff in Arunachal. In theory, they dispute it but in all practical sense they accept it is Indian.

Thats why said mainly and not 100%.

The difference is that we sent in our army to bitchslap them and they went back.

[rajpa]

Definition:

Jingo Shiver - Dhoti Shivering by Jingos. This happens after a particular duel has been won by own party. Jingos act scared to believe that they have actually won and worry about continuing the winning streak. This is known to occur due to excessive warming of backsides and typing into keyboards.

Related: Mental Mas*ation, Post Combat Depression, PTSD

[Dileep]

Folks, why continue to disgrace the lizards? The reptile species is actually GECKO. (Hemidactylus)

GECKOs are legendary to claim that they are supporting the beams thereby keeping the roof up.

[Guddu]

I read somewhere that there were a few more locations from which both sides will withdraw troops in the next few days. What are those locations and what is their significance ?.

[manju]

Both Liu and Lin were Mao's anointed successors. As Confucius wisely said "Not good to be Mao's #2, because you'll soon be in deep #2

[TKiran]

I recall what I posted on July 11, 2017

I do not think that there will even be a skirmish, let alone a war in this case. The two (or three) sides will silently establish status-quo-ante. Even, that would be a big concession to China; but, that is what I expect to happen.

China may be arrogant; it may be imperial; it may consider itself as the sole hegemonic and revisionist power in Asia (at least); it may dismiss India's pretensions to great power status contemptuously; it may not want a challenger in the form of India etc. But, it will not go to war with a nuclear power like India (despite Mao's braggadocio in another context and another era) with almost all stakes loaded against it - militarily, diplomatically & economically.

That was the correct prediction, but may not be the correct thing to do.

But the Han never showed eagerness to resolve the issue amicably, from the beginning it was us asking (begging) for diplomatic solution for military stand-off. I thought under Modi/Doval it's going to be a different ball game. But as predicted by you, in our eagerness to peace at any cost, we chickened out, but still it's very difficult for me to accept that Han have CHOSEN not to fight, it's we that gave them in platter a face saver. May be India has not yet arrived. Not yet....

[TKiran]

Just imagine a hypothetical scenario, now Han occupied Scarborough shoals, they begged Philippines for diplomatic solution, and then quietly vacated the shoals saying that, Philippines are not going to occupy the shoals, Philippines have lost.

Unthinkable is it?

Now replace Han with India, shoals by Doka Lam, and Philippines by Han, it's very much thinkable.

[Karan M]

Heres my next prediction.. PRC will pull this stunt again and this time, at 2-3 places with far more preparation. Hopefully, by then our recent mil-orders will have borne fruit & we will be better prepared for another staring contest.

Its not in the nature of the PRC establishment to accept loss of face. Right now, they have had MASSIVE H&D loss. The fact India stared them down will not go unnoticed in any Asian capital & Indian diplomats/GOI will be the flavor of the season in SoKo, ROC, Japan, Vietnam & Australia.

That will in turn lead to rethinking in Asia countries for FDI in India & building us up as a counterweight to PRC.

Xi will escalate and if he doesn't his domestic position will be precarious.

[manju]

with all the attention on BR (hopefully the same is happening among the public too) towards cheenis.. the pakis must be feeling neglected. The best way to insult the pakis is to neglect them (at least in public) while not letting the guard..