Levant crisis - III

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Aug 2017 19:32

https://muraselon.com/en/2017/08/us-led ... a-reports/

The US-led coalition has recently carried out 3 airlifts in the eastern Syrian province of Deir Ezzor, pro-opposition media declared.

Opposition sources said that US special Forces kidnapped Abu Khuzaimah al-Maghribi (a Moroccan national); an ISIS leader in al-Muhasan town located to the south o ISIS-held Deir Ezzor city.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory of Human Rights stated that several ISIS members of European nationalities have been airlifted from al-Tibni town in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor.

Activists think that the three airlifts aimed at either kidnapping senior ISIS commanders of evacuating agents dispatched by foreign intelligence agencies to spy on the terror group.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Army – backed by allied forces – continue to advance toward the embattled city of Deir Ezzor from the Syrian Desert and the southeastern countryside of Raqqa.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 11:08

last pocket of isis in east hama

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 11:10

syrian spies around DEZ berms say isis has moved out part of the defeated forces who had come to DEZ from hama and sukhnah , up north to defend the town of madaan on the river. AF has been hitting their gathering places around DEZ.

madaan, dez, mayadin, al bukamal in syria and adjacent al qaim in iraq are the last isis urban quilla left.

tal afar town has fallen, the pocket is 70km long and villages are to be cleared. penny packets of resilient rats here and there.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 11:16

SAA is presently 62km from DEZ on sukhnah front (west axis). and about same distance from madaan side (north axis)

a couple of well supported armour brigades could reach DEZ in 2 days , and devastate any isis raiding groups that attempted a block. but due to resource crunch this might take a month yet. its open desert with good field of fire

its inevitable though. ISIS will be bottled up into pockets along the euphrates and killed or forced to cross the river in territory thats left to the SDF to take (no signs of that yet despite some noises)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 11:17

interesting post in themess military forums::

Originally posted by Surenas View Post
Israel is panicking.

Initially the Syrian conflict was a gift from heaven for the Israelis. It bogged Iran, Hezbollah and Syria down in a war of attrition, setting the 'axis of resistance' up against not only regional powers like Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but also the United States. For Israel, the civil war had numerous desired outcomes. First of all, it slowly weakened the Syrian state. The Syrian government and Israel still hadn't reconciled after their previous war, and Syria was a staunch supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas, which it started to back after realizing that Israel couldn't be beat in a conventional way. Moreover, Syria was a relatively strong Arab state next to Israel's border. For Israel, the permanent disintegration of the Middle East into small sectarian or ethnic enclaves is a welcome outcome. It simply weakens Israel's (potential) enemies.

Second, the conflict completely shattered Iran's relations with the Sunni Arab world, pitching it up against the region's foremost economic and military powers. It weakened Iran's regional cloud, forced local actors to pick a side in a increasingly sectarian power play and made countries opposed to Iran's influence in Syria, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, more sympahethic to Israel. For example, the war forced Hamas to pick side with the Sunni axis, effectively burning the organization's ties with the state that previously was its main financial and military patron. For Iran, Hamas serves a important asset to influence Israel in its decision making, especially concerning its nuclear program. Simply put, both Hezbollah and Hamas are being used as a deterrence against a Israeli attack vis-a-vis its nuclear facilities. To have Hamas removed from the axis, weaken its bond with the largely Sunni Arab world and see Hezbollah burning its resources in a endless war.

But then Russia intervened, in a move which was reportedly influenced by Qasem Soleimani's visit to Moscow, where he met Putin and argued that while the Syrian government was in a bad shape, a concerted effort by both Russia and Iran could turn the tide. Russia deployed its air force, while Iran moved in thousands of IRGC and allied fighters. The result: Aleppo captured, Turkey giving up its previous aspirations to topple the Syrian government for a move against the YPG and the US which realized that with Russia Assad is there to stay so it started to focus on destroying IS. All these factors strongly straightened the Syrian government, and in Israel's eyes, Iran's position in the country.

But then Trump came along, and while he previously argued that the US should not topple Assad as it would lead to chaos and a power vacuum filled in bybextremists, he quickly bombed government targets in Syria after the latter reportedly used chemical weapons. Moreover, Trump surrounded himself with known anti-Iran hawks such as Michael Flynn, who Trump made his national security advisor. Flynn subsequently appointed people like Ezra Cohen-Watnick and Derek Harvey in the National Security Council, who started to argue that the US should actively fight Iran's presence in Syria. A glimpse Israeli hope of a renewed American commitment in the Middle East, backed by Trump's stated desire to terminate the Iran nuclear deal, was in the end shattered by domestic political tensions in the US: Flynn was forced to resign because of a scandal, influential figures within the Trump administration and Pentagon such as Mattis opposed the call for the US to step up its game in Syria in light of Iran while McMaster, the new NSC advisor, managed to fire Cohen-Watnick and Harvey after a long power struggle within the House, which was eventually settled after the new CoH, John Kelly, sided with McMaster.

Israel failed to convince the US to stop Iran from filling in the vacuum now that IS is daily losing territory in favour the Syrian government. It then calculated that the only option left over, short from going to war itself, is to pressure Russia into preventing Iran from establishing a permanent military footprint in Syria. How could Israel pressure Russia? Threaten to hold the Syrian government accountable, like bombing Assad's palace, basically going after Russia's own interests in the country. A pretty desperate move by a panicked regional actor which is standing by as numerous critical events are developing in the region:

1) Hezbollah is stronger than ever. It has managed to completely eridiciate Nusra and IS from the Lebanese border in a blitzkrieg operation.
2) Iran is reportedly trying to acquire military bases in Syria after the war is over, and already commands a legionnary force of thousands of Shia fighters.
3) Turkey is moving closer to Iran (and Russia) again, with Iran's Chief of Staff visiting Turkey to strengthen their military ties.
4) A internal conflict within the Gulf bloc: Saudi, UAE and Bahrein cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar, moving the country (and Turkey) closer to Iran.
5) Hamas restoring its ties with Iran, bringing the organization again under Iran's patronage.
6) The realization that the US has no appetite to directly confront Iran, and Russia either can't or won't curb Iranian influence in Syria.

All these factors contribute to Israel's alarmistic look on the future. The question is: will Israel accept the new regional reality, or will it go its own way to change the power balance, even by risking a widespread regional war against Iran and its allies? I believe Israel is bluffing, mainly to force the US or Russia to act, but then again: desperate needs lead to desperate deeds.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 11:21

we will see faster movement once the east hama pocket is dealt with and more supplies and men are released for DEZ offensive.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 12:56

isis rats surrending to kurds north of tal afar to avoid fighting pmu in south

i hope these devils are not recycled back under western tutelage to some other fight.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 12:59

Blazing Fury‏ @FuryBlazing 16h16 hours ago
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Replying to @Souria4Syrians
Most probably they'll be free men in a week's time, on their way to EU as oppressed asylum seekers.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 13:01

meantime due to the known incompetence of the regular lebanese army to hold up their end, the hezbollah agreed to let deport some 300 ISIS and families from qalamoun to al bukamal under red crescent as a means to end the fight quickly, secure the border and focus on main fights in the east.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 30 Aug 2017 13:29

I have never understood how did Obama desert his masters in Saudi Barbaria and Remove sanctions against Iran. Obama basically pitted Saudis & Iran against each other. I thought Saudis had Obama administration in its pockets, but what happened?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 15:16

fallout between houthis and saleh in Sanaa
https://www.thenational.ae/world/houthi ... y-1.623702

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 15:30

kurds @ raqqa are playing a seasoned game now. they move forward by 10m today and move back by 10m tomorrow. why expend blood and treasure for a arab city ? and if they finish it fast, Unkil will just beat them and make them work on some other project further south. safer to
let the saa take care of the isis there. the sdf arabi patchwork is anyways very weak and is there for the flag waving onlee.

so the endless siege of raqqa goes on.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Aug 2017 19:03

Israel is unsure of what will happen after ISIS and the Caliphate have been thrown out of Syria and Iraq in the main. Who will fill the vacuum? The obvious nation that has brilliantly leveraged its assets in the entire ME and Levant is Iran.The Persian Rommel QS,is actually an astute politician too in the Bismark mould who would like to units Shiite factions in the region in a v.strong military and political network. Economics would come from oil.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 21:16

al masdar news::- there are a few 100 isis wives and kids too in the convoy

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:05 P.M.) – The U.S. Coalition has blocked the Islamic State (ISIL) buses that departed from the Lebanese border from reaching its targeted destination in Deir Ezzor, the AFP News Agency claimed this afternoon.

“To prevent the convoy from moving further east, we cratered the road and destroyed a small bridge,” Colonel Ryan Dillon informed the AFP.

IS is global threat. Relocating terrorists from one place to another for someone else to deal w/ is not lasting solution,” the Coalition added.

This latest strike by the U.S. Coalition comes just hours after the Iraqi government expressed its anger over the recent transfer of Islamic State terrorists and their families to the Deir Ezzor Governorate city of Albukamal.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Aug 2017 21:18

imo that would them around 60km from DEZ

The'Nimr'Tiger @Souria4Syrians 33m33 minutes ago
Replying to @Souria4Syrians
Rough Location of Harbisha village according to this map. Syrian Army reached Harbisha outskirts #DeirEzzor

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 07:12

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/w ... google.com
U.S. Airstrikes Block Convoy Transferring ISIS Fighters - NYTimes.com

^^^ ironic considering they flushed out 1000s of devils from mosul into syria and the turks struck a deal on al bab to let the isis go away. the ypg also allegedly did that in manbij.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 08:15

harbisha is a collection of seasonal bedouin huts 10km inside the DEZ state line.

it is about the same distance from Sukhnah as from ash sholah the last town near DEZ(around 20k gap from ash sholah to dez).

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 08:19

graphic - piles of isis corpses on outskirts of uqayrabat which is besieged from 3 sides
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIgHYZ_W4AAL8ck.jpg

masterstroke by russians to let Idlib stew in own infighting for a while and free up almost entire SAA to reclaim the country in east. they also prevailed upon SAA to clean up the east hama pockets first before descending on DEZ to remove the threat to aleppo road permanently and free up the long chain of vulnerable checkpoints manned by the NDF.

with even americans saying idlib is the biggest nest of AQ, perhaps we shall see a joint campaign against Nusra after the east is settled. drones are known to fly over idlib.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 16:00

well hidden petra type man made caves found in taybah , north of sukhnah

https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/stat ... 8116675586

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Aug 2017 17:43

Interesting that all the ISIS corpses seem to have been shot in the head and have their arms raised (probably to ensure no IED-mubaraks) over their heads.... In a battle I would think bullet holes would have ruined the uniforms. No tears, just pointing out..

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 17:51

A very large 350 man night attack was beaten off and these are the kia near uqayribat

https://twitter.com/Souria4Syrians/stat ... 9636189184

Tigers have captured jabal bishri the last hilly area before flat plains to dez around 40km away from al kwam side

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 19:17

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-led-strik ... 48603.html

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 22:58

al masdar news excerpt
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/25 ... at-pocket/

According to the ISIS Hunters, some twenty-five of their troops stationed at the town of Mashrifah in north-central Homs came under attack by 350 ISIS terrorists during the late night hours of Wednesday through till Thursday and managed to successfully turn it back.

If the claim is in fact anywhere near the truth, then there can be no doubt that the elite SAA unit was supported by constant Russian airstrikes since only Russian airpower has the technological means to carry out precision night attacks.

Earlier today, key formations of the Syrian Army – including the 5th Assault Corps and the 4th Mechanized Division – officially liberated six major towns from ISIS, trapping the terrorist group’s forces in a second encirclement within the greater ‘Uqayribat pocket area.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 22:59

two large villages are in the way...but they can also be gheraoed and rendered powerless to influence.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/br ... zzor-city/

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:05 P.M.) – Elite forces of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) have reached to within fifty kilometers of Deir Ezzor city after capturing a key town along the al-Sukhnah to Deir Ezzor (M20) highway.

In recent hours, the Syrian Army – led by the elite Tiger Forces – liberated the town of Haribshah directly en-route to Deir Ezzor city via the eastern direction.

This advance comes not long after the Syrian troops took the strategic mountain chain of Bishiri to the north of Haribshah.

With these latest advances (Bishri and Haribshah), some Syrian War analysts are now claiming that the battle to lift the siege on pro-government forces in Deir Ezzor city has begun in earnest.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 31 Aug 2017 23:05

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2017 11:30

Mikhael Urdon‏Verified account @leithfadel 3h3 hours ago
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Intense clashes overnight in west Aleppo. Reports of intense fighting in the Al-Zahra'a and Al-Layramoun quarters

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2017 11:37

all must eventually gather at minas tirith to decide who shall rise and who shall fall.

BEIRUT, LEBANON (3:45 A.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has been advancing through several kilometers of desert terrain recently, placing them in prime position to reach the provincial capital of Deir Ezzor by the end of September.

As a result of this massive advance by the government forces, the Islamic State has been forced to abandon several areas along the Sukhnah-Deir Ezzor Highway.

According to a government source, a large number of Islamic State terrorists have been moved from the Syrian Desert to western Deir Ezzor countryside in anticipation for the Syrian Arab Army’s eventual attack to lift the siege on the provincial capital.

With thousands of ISIL militants in-and-around the town of Al-Shoula and Panorama area of western Deir Ezzor, the Syrian Arab Army will have to prepare for heavy resistance from the terrorist forces who already have their backs against the wall in the province.

If the Syrian Army manages to lift the siege on Deir Ezzor City, they will have to prepare for arguably the largest and most violent battle with the Islamic State forces in this six year long conflict.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2017 11:40

https://muraselon.com/en/2017/08/exclus ... a-enclave/
Negotiations are now being held to evacuate the Islamic State militants from their bastion in the eastern Hama countryside.

An informed source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that Russia has pushed for indirect negotiations whereby the group’s militants can leave with their light arms to the eastern province of Deir Ezzor

MURASELON hasn’t yet been able to completely verify the authenticity of this claim.

In order to facilitate the negotiations, the Russian airstrikes have been temporarily halted

According to the purported deal, civilians who have been used as human shields by the terror organization will be leaving either to Idlib or Salamiyah countryside.

This comes as the Syrian troops – backed by allied forces – succeeded late this evening to tighten the noose around the Islamic State militants in its enclave.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2017 11:42

as i mentioned iraqis have been most remiss in not cleaning up their side of the vast anbar border and instead sitting around in tal afar swatting the flies.

anbar and hawija are the biggest isis nests in iraq and must nodes be destroyed.

canny move my russia to clean up this pocket cheaply and free up 1000s more syrian troops for the move on deir azzor and madaan.

they will leave mayadin and al bukamal for last.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 Sep 2017 17:24

the SAA su22 pilot shot down near resafa by a F18 a couple months ago and held by the SDF has been released.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 Sep 2017 23:05

Good Footage of Kh-55 inside Tu-160 , the rotary launcher stuff and about the missile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJoLRqbffwM

Now Ukraine had 12 Kh-55 , 6 they gave to China and 6 to Iran .......Now Iran had indiginesed this 2500 km Range Cruise Missile !

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 08:47

The'Nimr'Tiger Souria4Syrians
US-backed FSA agreed in a deal to free pilot shot down 2 weeks ago

US-backed YPG still refuse to release pilot shot down 2 months ago

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 08:48

In prep for urban fighting in dez the syrians are moving up damascus region cage armoured tanks on trucks toward sukhnah
These are their best tanks t72 and t90
Probably large number of atgm and sniper units too

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 08:52

Ash sholah will be next with a strong 2 pronged attack from sukhnah side and jabal bishri

There are 1000s of confused and jobless jihadis milling around ash sholah and panorama circle of dez

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 02 Sep 2017 09:02

They are preparing for the invasion. Lebanon border stuff is already at the front line. The fall of Uquayribat shall free up more stuff.

The Idlib pocket has begun acting up just in time to keep SAA and Russians busy on other fronts.

Also despite best efforts SAA could not dislodge rebels from Johar so those boys are not going to be part of D E Z assault.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 09:50

east ghouta is also there, jobar and east ghouta use civilians as human shields I think.

diversionary attacks on Madaan (tribal fighters + tiger forces) and T2 (by militias + repub guard + russians) will be there to draw away isis legions and keep them tied down.

the main hammer blow of zhukov + konev will likely be two parallel prongs in middle - jabal bishri and sukhnah axes - well stocked with armour and artillery and with orders to bypass any strongpoints and keep driving the last 40km in soviet style deep battle tactics...paralyze the enemy logistics by intruding deep and cutting off their lines and supply chains. tiger forces and republican guard in the lead. every helicopter gunship in syria will be brought forward surely.

it will be like relieving the siege of leningrad and one of the few large scale open terrain conventional battles in the syrian war.

my guess is ISIS no longer has the resources to stop this in the desert and will fall back to the part of DEZ city which they have long fortified. and when that is no longer tenable they will cross the river and move south toward mayadin and al bukamal their Quillas.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 09:51

>>The Idlib pocket has begun acting up just in time to keep SAA and Russians busy on other fronts.

people who want ISIS off the hook must have paid the Idlibis to act up

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 10:05

no word on what happened to the convoy of 500 isis pigs and their families stalled at humaymah enroute to al bukamal when nato bombed their route and then bombed a relief convoy coming up from al bukamal. maybe they were given bottles of water, packets of biryani, released at night and told to walk to albukamal. hopefully the coalition bombs the crap out of them after they cross the isis lines.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 Sep 2017 10:13

Joumana Gebara‏ @JoumanaGebara Aug 31
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#CJTFOIR Gen Townsend on #TalAfar
1000-1200 ISIS dead, 700 out of them killed outside Tal Afar, out of 130 kiled by #Peshmerga

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 02 Sep 2017 16:34

Syria: Hezbollah & Syria Army Against FSA in Battle of Zabadani