^^^ In addition, I am still figuring out how the author came to that conclusion. As per the IAF, the squadron strength currently stands at 33 - 34 squadrons and the ideal number is 42 squadrons, as per successive IAF Chiefs. From another article - dated 03 Nov 2017 - the same author lists the current number of squadrons (by aircraft type) and their corresponding squadron numbers. See below.
The Indian Air Force’s Declining Squadron Strength – Options and Challenges
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spot ... hallenges/
MiG-29 - 3 Squadrons - Nos. 28, 47, 223
Mirage 2000 - 3 Squadrons - Nos. 1, 7, 9
MiG-21 Bison - 6 Squadrons - Nos. 3, 4, 21, 23, 32, 51
Su-30MKI - 11 Squadrons - Nos 2, 8, 15, 20, 24, 30, 31, 102, 106, 220, 221 + 3 more units to be formed
MiG-27UPG - 2 Squadrons - Nos 10, 29
MiG-27ML - 1 Squadrons - No 22
MiG-21Bis - 1 Squadron - No 26
MiG-21M/MF - 1 Squadron - No 37
Jaguar IS/IM - 6 Squadrons - Nos 5, 6, 14, 16, 27, 224
HAL Tejas - 1 Squadron - No 45
The author includes the Tejas in the above tally, but removes that squadron...as it not yet fully operational. If you click on the above link, you will see the author stating that. Removing that squadron from the list, makes the above 34 units. Fast forward a couple of years and this is "
likely" where the IAF will be. I have removed the Tejas out of the mix (will get to that in a bit) and have dropped the MiG-27ML (one unit) and MiG-21bis (one unit) from the list.
3 MiG-29 Squadrons
3 Mirage 2000 Squadrons
16 Su-30MKI Squadrons
*
6 Jaguar Squadrons
2 MiG-27UPG Squadrons
6 MiG-21 Bison Squadrons
2 Rafale Squadrons
*Now as per the author himself, three additional Rambha squadrons are to be formed. So from 11 squadrons NOW, it will rise to 14 squadrons. As announced by ACM Dhanoa on 08 Oct 2017, 40 more Rambhas are on order to bring the total of Su-30MKIs from 272 to 314 aircraft. That will further bring the Rambha squadron strength from 14 to 16 units.
The above comes to 38 squadrons. By mid 2025, the MiG-27UPG and the MiG-21Bison will be retired and that will leave a shortfall of 8 squadrons. However production of 40 Tejas Mk1 and 83 Mk1A will be complete by then. So at that point, the IAF strength will be:
3 MiG-29 Squadrons
3 Mirage 2000 Squadrons
16 Su-30MKI Squadrons
6 Jaguar Squadrons
2 Rafale Squadrons
7 Tejas Squadrons
The above comes to 37 squadrons, so that leaves a shortfall of five squadrons and this is where the SEF margin is. And that margin is the import lobby's main line of defense ---> that you can have Tejas and SEF co-existing together in the IAF. One does not endanger the other. One mitigates the risk for the other.
Now if a production run of 200 Tejas is planned (a number put forth by the import lobby themselves) - 11 squadrons - that actually negates the need for the SEF. You add another four Tejas squadrons - to the seven in the list above - and you are one squadron short of the magic number of 42. How can you fit SEF into the mix and still come to 42 squadrons? If you add another two Rafale squadrons - now 43 squadrons, so one squadron more - and how can you fit SEF into the mix and still come to 42 squadrons?
The only way SEF (minimum 100 air frames) and Tejas (200 air frames) can exist together, is if the IAF goes
beyond the 42 squadron number. Exceeding that number is something even the IAF is not planning for in the near future, because as per ACM Dhanoa...the IAF will achieve the magic number of 42 only by 2032. Fifteen years from now. If it is going to take 15 years to achieve 42, how many more years will it take to exceed 42? Will SEF even be valid then?
Also, if these un-named sources who claimed that the Tejas needs escorts, has an endurance of only 59 minutes, worse than the MiG-21, etc, etc, etc..the question that remains is why is the IAF inducting such a platform in the first place? Would it not make better sense to stop Tejas production at 40 aircraft and just switch to the SEF onlee? No risk at all! Let Tejas be tech demonstrator and lets move to AMCA. And then can we can rinse-and-repeat the Tejas model all over again.