'Make in India' Single engined fighter

[KrishnaK]

:lol: The risk assessor in chief on BRF - who claims his predictions are *NEVER* wrong - has been humbled. How does that feel?

My claim was the plan where LCA MK2 makes up the a bulk of shortfall due to upcoming retirements is risky enough, that imports are warranted. IAF's planning shouldn't be based on it'll replace a bulk of it's upcoming retirements with the LCA MK2. How has that changed ?

Stop this global tender bakwaas. Start working with the US on a G2G deal for 2 - 3 squadrons of F-35As. Forget even FACO. Just buy them off the shelf, station them at one airbase in India and use them as is. Or try a 2+2 option. Get two squadrons now, with an option for 2 more.

But order 2 more squadrons of Rafales RIGHT NOW. No more importing 4th+ gen fighters after this. The fifth gen F-35 will come only by the middle of the next decade, once all the negotiations are complete. Therefore, no need to spend all our valuable FOREX now.

If ordering Rafales was so easy it would've been done. That looks to be dependent on the upcoming general elections. Even if Modi did not have to seek another mandate in the utterly unpredictable union elections, just the simple fact that he's under pressure over the Rafale deal, means further orders have become slightly risker. Now the IAF will have to factor into their plans multiple possible course of action - Modi wins another outright majority, wins but no majority, Congress cobbles together a coalition, nobody is anywhere close to a majority reminiscent of our heydays of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujaral ? You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of risk. Understandable, given you actually get incomprehensible concepts like western greco-roman imperium logic.

Just focus on Tejas Mk1A and Mk2 and AMCA. The Tejas is India's SINGLE ENGINE FIGHTER.

If this were likely, why another RFP ?

[srai]

^^^
When did an Indian RFI/P ever materialize in a service induction in a hurry? How long do these multi-billion dollar deals take in the Indian context?

[Philip]

Hooray! BRF Air Marshals will get promoted to Marshals of the Air Farce by the time this round of evaluation,decision, negotiation and acquisition ends!
They may be long in the tooth by then, with false teeth, pacemakers, knee and hip replacements,but like good old Gen.Baksheesh will still be fighting fit!

But seriously , it opens the door for more cost-effective fighters like the MIG-35 to augment numbers.The IAF might get another Rafale sqd., but to make up numbers a few more sqds of affordable fighters that won't break the bank (PNB factor!) ,while the LCA remains the only SEF unless SAAB makes us such an attractive offer that we can't refuse, highly unlikely.

[Rakesh]

And He's Back!!! That Train's Never Late!

And BTW, you are somewhere between Stage 1 and Stage 2 on the Five Stages of Grief (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7261&p=2253720#p2253720). Long way to go, but you will see the light at the end of tunnel

My claim was the plan where LCA MK2 makes up the a bulk of shortfall due to upcoming retirements is risky enough, that imports are warranted. IAF's planning shouldn't be based on it'll replace a bulk of it's upcoming retirements with the LCA MK2. How has that changed?

FWIW....I was not even referring to *YOU* when I used the term risk-assessor-in-chief. Honestly, you were not even in the picture when I made that statement.

If the press reports in the Tribune and the Times of India are true, the SEF contract just got cancelled. I told you so. The IAF does not want the F-16. You cannot force something down someone's throat. No matter how much the GOI sees the "strategic" value in the F-16, there is no way the IAF will accept the plane. The IAF is the customer, not the GOI. If the GOI even tried to force the plane onto the IAF, the IAF would run circles around them. The MoD Babus would cry hoarse and violations of rules.

The GOI is clueless on the technical aspects of the plane. What would the GOI's talking points be on the technical aspects of the F-16, Block 70? The AESA radar? The GE engine? The weaponry? They have no clue on any of them.

You still believe the F-16 (and the F-18) is the best choice for the Indian Air Force. In fact, you even provided Tellis Saar's statement to back up that assertion. The IAF does not want either plane. But especially the F-16. They will never take that plane. For the Navy, they are more open to the F-18. No matter what you or I believe, the decision rests with the Indian Air Force. The F-16 got rejected on 27 April 2011 and got likely rejected again on 22 Feb 2018.

To the IAF, the risk of adopting the F-16 is greater than the risk of developing Tejas Mk2. If the reports are true, today's decision by the MoD proved that.

A big blow for the H&D of the import lobby.

If ordering Rafales was so easy it would've been done. That looks to be dependent on the upcoming general elections. Even if Modi did not have to seek another mandate in the utterly unpredictable union elections, just the simple fact that he's under pressure over the Rafale deal, means further orders have become slightly risker. Now the IAF will have to factor into their plans multiple possible course of action - Modi wins another outright majority, wins but no majority, Congress cobbles together a coalition, nobody is anywhere close to a majority reminiscent of our heydays of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujaral?

Regardless of who wins, the facts of the matter will still hold true. BJP, Congress or whoever will face a stark decision. Make the IAF go through the 11 stage MoD process of acquiring fighters or do a follow on deal of 36 - 44 Rafales. The latter is the logical choice from a time perspective. Otherwise the GOI of the day will have to take the risk of having an IAF that is toothless. No Govt will take that risk, if they expect to win elections.

What will likely happen now is this *NEW* multi-aircraft vendor situation will also get thrown out the window, just like the SEF contract which has likely gone belly up. And then Air HQ will scare the daylights out of the Govt in power, which will force the GOI to go in for a G2G deal for a fighter. It will not be 100+ aircraft though, just a limited purchase of 2 - 3 squadrons (36 - 54 aircraft). At the end of the day, this will be a win-win situation for all parties.

The MoD is not capable of holding a multi-vendor competition. Best solution for the GOI are G2G deals.

You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of risk. Understandable, given you actually get incomprehensible concepts like western greco-roman imperium logic.

You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of time

If the SEF offer from LM was such an amazing deal, why the did the Indian Air Force not jump at the prospect? Regardless of what we say on a forum, they are the decision makers on the technical aspect. Air HQ should have run to the Prime Minister's Office and asked what could they do to speed up this process. But why has the SEF deal gone likely belly up? Two years since SEF contract was announced and there was no movement on this from the GOI - UNTIL TODAY. Why?

If this were likely, why another RFP ?

If your odds were bleak at F-16 vs Gripen, how successful will your odds be when you have Typhoon, Rafale, F-16, F-18, MiG-35, Gripen E back again? Just a word of caution though, the Rafale will be the clear winner again. The IAF will already be operating the type. Again remember, the IAF is the customer, not the GOI.

Regardless of whatever the Opposition accuses the GOI of - on the Rafale deal - they have to prove it. Oh wait, they can't prove *SQUAT* because the MoD refuses to reveal the breakdown of the deal and neither will Dassault. There is a tiny problem of a binding contract that is coming into play. So they will have to wait for RaGa to win the 2019 elections. Good luck with that one!

[ArjunPandit]

-del-

[dinesha]

ToI-Govt scraps single-engine fighter plan, asks IAF to go for wider competition
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/govt-s ... 034958.cms

[Rakesh]

America Has High Expectations for India. Can New Delhi Deliver?
https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/ameri ... i-deliver/

And indeed, even when resources are allocated to defense, the Indian state has struggled to turn them into military power. The budget of the Ministry of Defence is being cannibalized by military personnel and pension costs. These costs place a hard limit on the ability of the military, especially the huge and manpower-heavy Army, to invest in serious modernization and technology acquisition. The available weapons procurement process and indigenous development are also deeply inefficient and unable to meet India’s needs, in part because civilian politicians are focused on other issues and worried about being ensnared in corruption allegations.

The “Make in India” program to encourage defense indigenization has not led to dramatic changes. Increases in GDP are not being straightforwardly converted into new military power: Simply maintaining sufficient ammunition stocks and replacing aging equipment (especially in the worrisome case of the Indian Air Force) are enough of a challenge, much less engaging in the kinds of ambitious new reforms China has pursued in the last decade.

[srai]

^^^

...
The budget of the Ministry of Defence is being cannibalized by military personnel and pension costs. These costs place a hard limit on the ability of the military, especially the huge and manpower-heavy Army, to invest in serious modernization and technology acquisition.
...

And yet, the IA went ahead and added some 90,000 more troops for MSC and other divisions. 80% of its annual budget goes into revenue expenditure (salaries/pensions, etc).

[Austin]

ToI-Govt scraps single-engine fighter plan, asks IAF to go for wider competition
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/govt-s ... 034958.cms

BEst news and now let them stop the drama to add twin engine to the race and just invest that money in Tejas program.

What is the point in suspending one SEF competition and starting another twin and single engine fighter competition when we can have Tejas

[Vips]

^^^

...
The budget of the Ministry of Defence is being cannibalized by military personnel and pension costs. These costs place a hard limit on the ability of the military, especially the huge and manpower-heavy Army, to invest in serious modernization and technology acquisition.
...

And yet, the IA went ahead and added some 90,000 more troops for MSC and other divisions. 80% of its annual budget goes into revenue expenditure (salaries/pensions, etc).

Unless and until the Defense expenditure is increased from 1.58% of GDP to 2.5% of our GDP we will continue to go downhill in our military capabilities. Increasing the Defense Budget is the only solution.

[srai]

ToI-Govt scraps single-engine fighter plan, asks IAF to go for wider competition
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/govt-s ... 034958.cms

BEst news and now let them stop the drama to add twin engine to the race and just invest that money in Tejas program.

What is the point in suspending one SEF competition and starting another twin and single engine fighter competition when we can have Tejas

Feels like "Scorched Earth" policy. Can't have both it seems. Another decade goes by and India will still be complaining squadron shortages. Meanwhile, assembly lines (and the expansion potential) for Tejas will be underutilized.

[JayS]

America Has High Expectations for India. Can New Delhi Deliver?
https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/ameri ... i-deliver/

The title sounds like how your GHQ would emotionally blackmail you into taking her shopping and buy an expensive diamond ring for no damn reason.

[Will]

Well there's a feeling that the IAF dosent want the F-16 . I had mentioned that SAAB had shot itself in the foot by tying up with Adani. With the opposition going all out to make a stink about Ambani and the Rafale deal the govt cannot afford to be seen as favouring Adani by going in for the Gripen in a single vendor situation. So here we go again. Fingers crossed that we don't have to go to war in the next decade with a fast depleting airforce.

[KrishnaK]

And He's Back!!! That Train's Never Late!

And BTW, you are somewhere between Stage 1 and Stage 2 on the Five Stages of Grief (viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7261&p=2253720#p2253720). Long way to go, but you will see the light at the end of tunnel

My claim was the plan where LCA MK2 makes up the a bulk of shortfall due to upcoming retirements is risky enough, that imports are warranted. IAF's planning shouldn't be based on it'll replace a bulk of it's upcoming retirements with the LCA MK2. How has that changed?

FWIW....I was not even referring to *YOU* when I used the term risk-assessor-in-chief. Honestly, you were not even in the picture when I made that statement.

Fair enough.

If the press reports in the Tribune and the Times of India are true, the SEF contract just got cancelled. I told you so. The IAF does not want the F-16. You cannot force something down someone's throat. No matter how much the GOI sees the "strategic" value in the F-16, there is no way the IAF will accept the plane. The IAF is the customer, not the GOI. If the GOI even tried to force the plane onto the IAF, the IAF would run circles around them. The MoD Babus would cry hoarse and violations of rules. The GOI is clueless on the technical aspects of the plane. What would the GOI's talking points be on the technical aspects of the F-16, Block 70? The AESA radar? The GE engine? The weaponry? They have no clue on any of them.

You still believe the F-16 (and the F-18) is the best choice for the Indian Air Force. In fact, you even provided Tellis Saar's statement to back up that assertion.

To quote what I said originally

I really do not know if the SEF is the right approach or not (I agree with you that the Rafale is likely the best foreign jet to buy),..

In 2001, the M2K was the best option. With hindsight, having seen the MMRCA outcome, Ashley was right. At this point, clearly more Rafales and possibly F35s. If this cannot be had, the F16/F18s wouldn't be a bad choice is my personal opinion. The F35s are going to be harder to negotiate IMHO. Either way a G2G deal, especially with the US, is the best choice. I do not think Congress cares so little about its relationship with the US that its willing to sling mud at a FMS deal with it. They have taken the quite shocking step of accusing a friendly foreign government of being involved in "ghafla".

The IAF does not want either plane. But especially the F-16. They will never take that plane. For the Navy, they are more open to the F-18. No matter what you or I believe, the decision rests with the Indian Air Force. The F-16 got rejected on 27 April 2011 and got likely rejected again on 22 Feb 2018.

To the IAF, the risk of adopting the F-16 is greater than the risk of developing Tejas Mk2. If the reports are true, today's decision by the MoD proved that.

To answer the bolded part, not really. Using the logic of saying SEF cancelled == IAF does not want F16s, new RFP == IAF doesn't want to rely sole on LCA MK2s even if the new jet ordered will arrive in roughly the same time as the MK2. It is quite possible the IAF wants the Rafales and will potentially shoot down anything else.

If ordering Rafales was so easy it would've been done. That looks to be dependent on the upcoming general elections. Even if Modi did not have to seek another mandate in the utterly unpredictable union elections, just the simple fact that he's under pressure over the Rafale deal, means further orders have become slightly risker. Now the IAF will have to factor into their plans multiple possible course of action - Modi wins another outright majority, wins but no majority, Congress cobbles together a coalition, nobody is anywhere close to a majority reminiscent of our heydays of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujaral?

Regardless of who wins, the facts of the matter will still hold true. BJP, Congress or whoever will face a stark decision. Make the IAF go through the 11 stage MoD process of acquiring fighters or do a follow on deal of 36 - 44 Rafales. The latter is the logical choice from a time perspective. Otherwise the GOI of the day will have to take the risk of having an IAF that is toothless. No Govt will take that risk, if they expect to win elections.

They can go for a G2G deal with another country. While the Rafale would be ideal, if the Congress comes to power, it can't very well go back to the same Rafale deal again without blowback. What should be a definite order for more Rafales, has now become uncertain.

What will likely happen now is this *NEW* multi-aircraft vendor situation will also get thrown out the window, just like the SEF contract which has likely gone belly up. And then Air HQ will scare the daylights out of the Govt in power, which will force the GOI to go in for a G2G deal for a fighter. It will not be 100+ aircraft though, just a limited purchase of 2 - 3 squadrons (36 - 54 aircraft). At the end of the day, this will be a win-win situation for all parties.

The MoD is not capable of holding a multi-vendor competition. Best solution for the GOI are G2G deals.

Agree. However, even G2G deals don't look immune at this point. I think there has to be a way to get bipartisan consensus on big military deals.

You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of risk. Understandable, given you actually get incomprehensible concepts like western greco-roman imperium logic.

You seem to have a problem with understanding the very simple concept of time

If the SEF offer from LM was such an amazing deal, why the did the Indian Air Force not jump at the prospect? Regardless of what we say on a forum, they are the decision makers on the technical aspect. Air HQ should have run to the Prime Minister's Office and asked what could they do to speed up this process. But why has the SEF deal gone likely belly up? Two years since SEF contract was announced and there was no movement on this from the GOI - UNTIL TODAY. Why?

Could be because IAF plans had xx Rafales in them and they want to shoot down everything else. Just a guess, I have no inside track on anything.

If this were likely, why another RFP ?

If your odds were bleak at F-16 vs Gripen, how successful will your odds be when you have Typhoon, Rafale, F-16, F-18, MiG-35, Gripen E back again? Just a word of caution though, the Rafale will be the clear winner again. The IAF will already be operating the type. Again remember, the IAF is the customer, not the GOI.

The GoI cannot issue a contract and then secretly favour one type because the IAF already operates it. If the contract favours one party inherently, participation will suffer.

Regardless of whatever the Opposition accuses the GOI of - on the Rafale deal - they have to prove it. Oh wait, they can't prove *SQUAT* because the MoD refuses to reveal the breakdown of the deal and neither will Dassault. There is a tiny problem of a binding contract that is coming into play. So they will have to wait for RaGa to win the 2019 elections. Good luck with that one!

The binding contract is a liability as well - they don't need to prove anything, because the ruling dispensation can't disprove it either. If these unproven allegations affects the election outcome, its purpose would have been served. RaGa does not have to win, the BJP losing its majority should suffice. The further away from a majority, the more cautious they'll get.

[chola]

FWIW....I was not even referring to *YOU* when I used the term risk-assessor-in-chief. Honestly, you were not even in the picture when I made that statement.

I’d like to find out who this risk-assessor is. This place needs one.

[kvraghav]

Can we start IBTL for this thread now?

[Rishi_Tri]

Well there's a feeling that the IAF dosent want the F-16 . I had mentioned that SAAB had shot itself in the foot by tying up with Adani. With the opposition going all out to make a stink about Ambani and the Rafale deal the govt cannot afford to be seen as favouring Adani by going in for the Gripen in a single vendor situation. So here we go again. Fingers crossed that we don't have to go to war in the next decade with a fast depleting airforce.

Pakistan has been at war with India for last 70 years. Didnt prevent it from contributing, owning JF 17 to the extent it can. China has been at war with India and now with whole world, and used that as ruse to develop self reliance. Realization of importance of Self reliance in Defense has dawned to a great degree on Political Establishment of this country, and also being accepted by Defense Establishment.

What I find funny is, a country such as North Korea with WWII planes, non existent navy, barely a handful of nuclear weapons, fires missiles at US and dares it all across; where as we ... don't want to say anything ..

[SaiK]

IAF wants AMCA now.

[KrishnaK]

What India Wants In One Of The World's Biggest Fighter Jet Orders

[Rakesh]

In 2001, the M2K was the best option. With hindsight, having seen the MMRCA outcome, Ashley was right. At this point, clearly more Rafales and possibly F35s. If this cannot be had, the F16/F18s wouldn't be a bad choice is my personal opinion. The F35s are going to be harder to negotiate IMHO. Either way a G2G deal, especially with the US, is the best choice. I do not think Congress cares so little about its relationship with the US that its willing to sling mud at a FMS deal with it. They have taken the quite shocking step of accusing a friendly foreign government of being involved in "ghafla".

Mirage 2000: That ship sailed in 2004, when Dassault dropped the bird and replaced it with the Rafale. It is gone. Not coming back.
F-16: That ship sailed on 27 April 2011 and sailed again on 22 Feb 2018. It is gone. Not coming back. The IAF does not want it.
F-18: That ship sailed on 27 April 2011. It is gone. Not coming back. The IAF does not want it. IN, probably. Even the Growler variant is gone. They no longer make it and would be a hard sell anyway.

No point rehashing these three birds anymore. The only way now is to look forward. And the best option is a G2G deal for the F-35 and/or Rafale. MoD is incapable of holding multi-vendor competitions.

Congress (or for that matter any opposition party) can say any nonsense they want. It matters little to anyone, because they do not represent the Govt of India. If and when the Congress comes into power and they open the Rafale file to find some ghotala, they will realize what a fool they made themselves to be and quietly bury the issue. But when you are in opposition, you have the liberty to say anything you feel like. No repercussions whatsoever. All politics onlee.

To answer the bolded part, not really. Using the logic of saying SEF cancelled == IAF does not want F16s, new RFP == IAF doesn't want to rely sole on LCA MK2s even if the new jet ordered will arrive in roughly the same time as the MK2. It is quite possible the IAF wants the Rafales and will potentially shoot down anything else.

No new Rafales are coming till at least the 2019 elections are done. That is guaranteed now.

They can go for a G2G deal with another country. While the Rafale would be ideal, if the Congress comes to power, it can't very well go back to the same Rafale deal again without blowback. What should be a definite order for more Rafales, has now become uncertain.

At this stage, it does not matter. Rafale or F-35. The IAF will not accept anything else.

For all the talk that additional Mirage 2000s were not coming after the initial purchase in the 80s, the NDA quietly ordered another 10 birds which were delivered in 2004. No fuss.

Agree. However, even G2G deals don't look immune at this point. I think there has to be a way to get bipartisan consensus on big military deals.

Only G2G deals and a couple of contests have worked. But the scales tilt in favour of G2G deals. That is the only way forward now.

Rafale: G2G Deal
C-17: G2G Deal
C-130: G2G Deal
P-8I: G2G Deal + more are coming now via G2G deal. I really hope they come.
AH-64E Apache: no contest competition between the Mi-28 and the Apache, which the Apache rightfully won.
CH-47 Chinook: no contest competition between the Mi-26 and the CH-47, which the Chinook rightfully won.
S-70B Seahawk: G2G deal mired in the MoD's stupid bureaucracy.

Could be because IAF plans had xx Rafales in them and they want to shoot down everything else. Just a guess, I have no inside track on anything.

Like I mentioned earlier, no follow-on Rafales are coming till at least the 2019 elections are done. Not worth the risk.

The GoI cannot issue a contract and then secretly favour one type because the IAF already operates it. If the contract favours one party inherently, participation will suffer.

The GOI cannot favour one bird over the other, but the IAF surely can in an open competition. They did it in the first MMRCA contest and they did it again with the SEF contest. The GOI is not the customer, the IAF is. And in a contest, the IAF will select the best bird for its needs.

The binding contract is a liability as well - they don't need to prove anything, because the ruling dispensation can't disprove it either. If these unproven allegations affects the election outcome, its purpose would have been served. RaGa does not have to win, the BJP losing its majority should suffice. The further away from a majority, the more cautious they'll get.

Far from it. Congress is accusing the Modi Govt that there is corruption. Modi Govt is replying by saying no corruption, however they cannot reveal the details of the deal due to the binding agreement. So now the onus lies on RaGa to prove the corruption. No proof, no game.

Let us take your scenario one step further - that BJP loses the 2019 election and Congress comes into power. What do you think is going to happen, when Congress open the Rafale file and discovers there is nothing wrong in the deal? What is the Congress going to do then? Squat. Assuming, they do find some ghotala in the deal. Does Bofors ring a bell? Just like in Bofors, nobody will get convicted. The game continues.

[Will]

Well there's a feeling that the IAF dosent want the F-16 . I had mentioned that SAAB had shot itself in the foot by tying up with Adani. With the opposition going all out to make a stink about Ambani and the Rafale deal the govt cannot afford to be seen as favouring Adani by going in for the Gripen in a single vendor situation. So here we go again. Fingers crossed that we don't have to go to war in the next decade with a fast depleting airforce.

Pakistan has been at war with India for last 70 years. Didnt prevent it from contributing, owning JF 17 to the extent it can. China has been at war with India and now with whole world, and used that as ruse to develop self reliance. Realization of importance of Self reliance in Defense has dawned to a great degree on Political Establishment of this country, and also being accepted by Defense Establishment.

What I find funny is, a country such as North Korea with WWII planes, non existent navy, barely a handful of nuclear weapons, fires missiles at US and dares it all across; where as we ... don't want to say anything ..

We haven't really been in a "hot" war for a while now. I know the IAF will do its best with whatever it has in hand, but keep in mind we have a rapidly modernizing China and our perennial enemy Pakistan on our door steps and for the first time in decades we are faced with the real possibility of a two front war. Unfortunately Russia is cosying up with both for its own reasons and we really cant depend on the Americans if things go "hot".

[Rakesh]

Make in India for Defence was never destined to work. It cannot work. That was a red herring.

There are other options available to improve the unemployment rate in India, other than building phoren fighters.

Just buy silver bullets off the shelf in small numbers (2 - 4 squadrons) to do unique tasks and focus on Tejas production. That is the way forward.

[Rakesh]

FWIW....I was not even referring to *YOU* when I used the term risk-assessor-in-chief. Honestly, you were not even in the picture when I made that statement.

I’d like to find out who this risk-assessor is. This place needs one.

He knows He is reading. I will leave it at that.

[Will]

Make in India for Defence was never destined to work. It cannot work. That was a red herring.

There are other options available to improve the unemployment rate in India, other than building phoren fighters.

Just buy silver bullets off the shelf in small numbers (2 - 4 squadrons) to do unique tasks and focus on Tejas production. That is the way forward.

"Make in India" is all hot air. If the govt is really serious about indigenisation then "design,develop and make in India" should be the mantra. Scredrivergiri make in India is something that we don't need.

[Rakesh]

I am going to close this thread. It has been more or less confirmed now that SEF contract is over.

Will: I am going to reopen the thread you started yesterday. I am going to clean it up first.

KrishnaK: We can continue discussion in the new thread that Will started. Don't reply in this one.

[Rakesh]

Thread Closed. Moved To Military Issues Archive.