Cosmo_R wrote:As brar_w has pointed out somewhere, an off-the-shelf buy is 20% less than a FACO.
That is the *ONLY* option right now. Off the shelf. Our bureaucracy will ruin FACO. More on this below.
Cosmo_R wrote:Narrowing options lead to remaining action (2019):
-Exercise option for 18 more Rafales
-FMS with GOTUS for 108 JSF with DCS with LM and others for expendables (MRO) and munitions (integrate Indian weapons). Work with Israel leverage their integration experience on Derby/Python. As to availability, if anyone can do it, it's LM.
Maybe the Trumpmeister can be convinced to 'offload' the JSF and claim victory.
Seeing how dicey the situation is right now, no additional Rafales are coming till post May 2019. That is a given. If BJP wins, a follow on order of 36 - 44 Rafales will likely come. Again, off the shelf only. If Congress wins and RaGa opens the Rafale deal to find the ghotala that he is harping out, he will find nothing, close the file and act like nothing even happened. Then quietly he will order additional Rafales citing IAF's operational need. All politics onlee.
But on to the F-35. Saar, not 108 F-35s. I like the number, but it is the MoD I am petrified about. MoD Babus get
khujli when they see large numbers and then will ask for ToT, License Production, FACO line and all that wonderful stuff at a price that LM will balk. So start off at 2+2 option and off the shelf. Look at additional numbers later. That is the only solution to get the F-35. You ask for 100+ F-35s and the MoD will ruin it. We need to learn from MMRCA - Episode I and MMRCA - Episode II. We have proven that we are incapable of doing screwdrivergiri on western aircraft. Even the Russian birds we build, turn out to be more expensive than buying them directly from Russia.
Spectacular Failure!
I can guarentee 100% that Episode III will also fail. The IAF is one who suffers because of the MoD's foolishness. So thus G2G deal, non-FACO, 2+2 option. And while 2+2 will do squat to address the squadron shortage, the capability leap that it offers the IAF will negate some of the effect. And don't even customize anything on the F-35 until they land on Indian soil. Otherwise the MoD will mess that up too. Once the birds come, then the IAF can adopt the strategy of customizing them via Israel. And America should not mind. They just don't want the Russians anywhere near that plane and fully understandable.
To address squadron shortage, it has to be the Tejas. The Tejas is the aircraft that the IAF needs to buy in numbers. Lethargy needs to give way for Efficiency. If HAL cannot deliver, then HAL needs to go. I have zero faith in Adani, but TASL can certainly tool up. Give a line to TASL for the Tejas and get them to churn out planes as well.
Trump is the only one who can pull this off. Democrats are preachy (human rights, religious rights) and will ask for the moon. This will make getting the F-35 a lot tougher, because India will have to give a lot more concessions. India has got less than three years to hash out a deal before Trump leaves (assuming he loses the 2020 elections). Post 2020, additional options can be acquired for the F-35 even if it is a President who is a Democrat.