MRCA (Many Rakshaks Choose Aircraft) Contest - Episode III

[Will]

Heaven help the IAF and the good people of India.

You all know what goes in here . Welcome to the latest in entertainment for the next decade.

India to again scout for global players for jets
http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation ... 47826.html

---------------------------------------------------------------

Rakesh's Note: I changed the title for the comedy show that is about to begin. ALL CREDITS for the above title goes to Hakeem-ji, who started a thread with a title exactly like this, during the first MRCA contest. Thank him for the innovative title.

Added L8r: I just realized this is the Third Tamasha, so Episode III. First MMRCA contest, then SEF contest and now this one. We should spin into a movie script for Bollywood. We can get actors from BRF onlee. I can play a MoD Babu

Last Page of Make In India - Single Engine Fighter thread ---> viewtopic.php?f=13&t=7261&start=5400

The above thread will forever be saved in BRF's Military Issues Archives. Truly a gold mine. Lots of emotional ups and downs.

[Rakesh]

Posted by BRF Member dinesha....

ToI-Govt scraps single-engine fighter plan, asks IAF to go for wider competition
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/govt-s ... 034958.cms

[Rakesh]

Posted by BRF Member Krishna_K

What India Wants In One Of The World's Biggest Fighter Jet Orders

[Rakesh]

America Has High Expectations for India. Can New Delhi Deliver?
https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/ameri ... i-deliver/

And indeed, even when resources are allocated to defense, the Indian state has struggled to turn them into military power. The budget of the Ministry of Defence is being cannibalized by military personnel and pension costs. These costs place a hard limit on the ability of the military, especially the huge and manpower-heavy Army, to invest in serious modernization and technology acquisition. The available weapons procurement process and indigenous development are also deeply inefficient and unable to meet India’s needs, in part because civilian politicians are focused on other issues and worried about being ensnared in corruption allegations.

The “Make in India” program to encourage defense indigenization has not led to dramatic changes. Increases in GDP are not being straightforwardly converted into new military power: Simply maintaining sufficient ammunition stocks and replacing aging equipment (especially in the worrisome case of the Indian Air Force) are enough of a challenge, much less engaging in the kinds of ambitious new reforms China has pursued in the last decade.

[ArjunPandit]

1. Dont think there is any major need to run a mega show to evaluate the birds that competed in MMRCA 1.0. Unless of course, there are significant upgrades. Apart from Gripen-E, and Mig 35 we had a good look at pretty much all the birds. So, in theory and if this govt is smart, this exercise can be wrapped up way faster.
2. So that ways earlier participants will only have to submit updates in cost/price estimates. Hopefully, we are better prepared this time on that front
3. If it were upto me, Tejas Mk2 should be allowed to participate , if nothing else, this will give these guys some exposure to how firangs operate in these matters

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/967068582617276417 ---> F-35 can only be considered if it is offered without COMCASA/CISMOA & at least some code sharing is there. I don't see the Americans relenting on either. FGFA is a far more advanced project & should go though provided HAL becomes a true 'OEM' for it.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/967069319581650950 ---> Note: I am not saying FGFA is more advanced than F-35. I am saying that the project to build the FGFA in India is at a far more advanced stage than some nascent 'talk' about F-35.

[Rakesh]

^^^^ Ramana-ji is right when he calls the F-35 a Fancy Cornish Hen

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/967070381747134464 --->

In my opinion India must make the following demands on all major military system imports:

1. Give me the source code for certain things.
2. For some others, you must at least give me the executable files
3. For a few remaining items, I'll settle for the compiler

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/967073135957893121 ---> Instead of keeping this new 'Strategic Partnership' policy limited to big ticket platforms likes fighters and AFVs, it would be much better if it is used to create 'Indian primes' for key sub-systems such as low bypass turbofan engines.

[Indranil]

I am hoping that out of this govt. rebutt of the SEF, IAF says: F.. this! No govt. is going to increase military spending to allow capital investments. Some govt. speak of chest, others about balls, but all they care for is one from of dole-out or the other.

Let's stick with what we have got some semblance of control over. Let's take LCA/AMCA/FGFA/Rafale to build up our fleet.

[Rakesh]

+108 IR! Well Said!!!

https://twitter.com/RAeSTimR/status/966958045266956288 ---> MMRCA headline from the future: 'We've extended the requirement to include 3 & 4 engine fighters...'

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/ajaishukla/status/9 ... 4822216705 ---> Rediffmail publishes my report on the IAF getting seriously interested in @LockheedMartin's F-35 Lightning II 5th-generation fighter. It is certainly cheaper to buy than the Rafale. We'd only know later which of the two is cheaper to operate.

[SaiK]

We have no confirmation on this MMRCA. Why open this dhaaga?

[Rakesh]

:-?

We have no confirmation on this MMRCA. Why open this dhaaga?

I gave the original news report from The Tribune 24 hours. Others have also put out reports. MoD has not refuted it.

So thus, new dhaaga for new contest.

[tsarkar]

Just like the old MMRCA bought time for Tejas Mk1 to mature and enter squadron service.

Just like the artillery RFP bought time for Dhanush & ATAGS to develop.

Inshallah the only expectation I have from MMRCA sequel is that it buys enough time for Tejas Mk2 development.

[ramana]

Folks put yourself in GOI shoes.
IAF squadron strength is declining.
The SEF has two turkeys being offered: F-16 is old plane with new feathers, Grippen is not much more than Tejas Mk2.
HAL is slowly moving at snail in winter pace on the existing 40 Tejas Mk1 order.
They have the 83 Mk1A.
Su 30 MKI line is also facing the end.
Meantime IAF needs more planes.
So limiting to the SEF terms won't work.
Hence the new competition.

[Rakesh]

At this stage, it makes better sense to invest in a Tejas line at TASL. If HAL cannot deliver, they need to be kicked out. I am not eager with this phoren fighter aircraft production. That is some nonsense made up to justify importing "no-value" platforms like the F-16 or Gripen E. But most important is the time factor. How does the IAF get the fighters it needs and at the same time upgrading the current platforms and keep them up to date?

It is here where Lockheed Martin shines out from the rest...including Dassault. Nobody can churn out combat platforms - in numbers - like the way they do. Although, I am unsure about Boeing. Perhaps brar can advise on that aspect. But If I were LM, I would be working on a proposal to offer the IAF (via a G2G contract) for a 2 + 2 option for the F-35A. I would start small, because that is most attractive price wise. LM has not lost anything, in fact they are sitting on a winning solution that the US Govt just cannot see.

At this stage - in the short term - the IAF needs to move beyond the '42' number and look at what capability each new platform provides to them. And it is here where the F-35 holds a tremendous leap over all other platforms. I agree they are Fancy Cornish Hens due to the restrictive demands that will be placed on them from the US Govt. However right now, the F-35 provides a deterrence to China and Pakistan that no other platform can provide. And to keep negotations simple, just buy them off the shelf as is. Down the road - post May 2019 - a follow on order of Rafales could be looked into as well.

Two squadrons of F-35s will do little to address the squadron shortage, but the quantum leap in capability that the F-35 provides will negate some of that. And as for the numbers, the Tejas will have to address the shortage. There is no other platform other than the Tejas, that can be acquired in the numbers required and in a cost that the MoD can afford. There is *NO* way around this. Not MiG-35, not F-16, not F-18, not Gripen E, not Rafale, not EF Typhoon and not even F-35. It is Tejas all the way. Ironic but I have to adopt the term - There is no Plan B. So if HAL is moving like a snail in winter, then HAL needs to go or another line needs to be set up (at TASL or where ever else). I am waiting for 2019 to see if HAL can meet the 16 aircraft/yr production goal.

This new multi-vendor competition needs to go. Go for a G2G deal with the US Govt for the F-35. Time is of the essence.

This needs to be worked on with serious urgency - from both sides (US and India) - because the need of the hour is such. Along in the same vein, the Mirage 2000 upgrade needs to be completed (what is the update on this?), the Super Sukhoi upgrade needs to be inked and the Jaguars need to be upgraded as well (how is the Darin III upgrade coming along?) along with the Honeywell re-engine program. Right now the only completed program I believe is the MiG-29UPG.

If we can do the above, the IAF may not hit 42 anytime in the near future....but I am damn sure that it will prevail.

[Rakesh]

Modi Government Tweaks Single Engine Fighter Plan, Will Also Consider Twin Engine Jets For IAF
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/modi-gove ... rs-for-iaf

The move to open up the contest to twin-engine fighters will have two advantages. One, it will theoretically increase India’s options. Under the single-engine plan, Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 and Saab Gripen-E were the only options India had. With the government considering twin-engine fighters, the competition is now open to Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Sukhoi Su-35 and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Two, broadening the competition would definitely increase the competition between the bidders, helping India get a better deal.

Same nonsense argument again. We will never learn

[srai]

GoI changes and along with it "mother-of-all" contests, but all remains the same. Stuck in the Karmic cycle.

[SaiK]

Top 3 if at all would be again like last time with a small change in that F35 probably (if teens don't shake wings better with Eu counterparts) to compete for the top spot along with Rafale, EF2K.

Why waste mother of all efforts again. IAF has the 643 check points. They have to test only the JSF.

The Frenchman must be laughing again.

[deejay]

Modi Government Tweaks Single Engine Fighter Plan, Will Also Consider Twin Engine Jets For IAF
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/modi-gove ... rs-for-iaf

The move to open up the contest to twin-engine fighters will have two advantages. One, it will theoretically increase India’s options. Under the single-engine plan, Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 and Saab Gripen-E were the only options India had. With the government considering twin-engine fighters, the competition is now open to Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Sukhoi Su-35 and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Two, broadening the competition would definitely increase the competition between the bidders, helping India get a better deal.

Same nonsense argument again. We will never learn

So we will buy more Rafales.

[Singha]

Seriously guys enough of mrca. Freeze this and let our kids discuss in a decade

[nash]

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/st ... 2018-02-24

Indian Air Force wants fighter jet deal worth Rs 1.25L cr to be fast-tracked

Against the backdrop of dwindling fighter squadrons, the Indian Air Force (IAF) feels that its requirement for more than 100 combat aircraft expected to be worth over Rs 1.25 lakh crore should be procured through a government-to-government (G2G) deal to avoid further time delays due to the complex acquisition process involved in it.

"The IAF wants the acquisition procedure for acquiring the new aircraft to be completed in the shortest possible time and that will be possible only if they are allowed to go for a government-to-government deal with a foreign country.

Even a G2G deal would take four years for the first plane to be delivered, and this would be the only way to end the vicious circle of delays," government sources told Mail Today.

"If the government decides to buy planes through a tender route, it would take a minimum of eight to nine years as at least five years would be required to select a vendor, and then another three would be required for the delivery," they said.

1.25L crore : ~20 billion $
100 combat aircraft
G2G deal

I think we know in all probability where this will end up.

[Aditya_V]

I have a vague feeling this is going to be F-18 for NAVY Air force with so called manufacture of GE F-414 IN6 engines in India for the F-18's as well as LCA MK2 and AMCA.

We then might as well get more 737-900 Modified ( basically p-8 air frames) with MRO and some parts manufacture to act as Naval LRMP's as well as AIrforce Bombers. I.e we will stuck to hip with Boeing and GE.

[Cain Marko]

Modi Government Tweaks Single Engine Fighter Plan, Will Also Consider Twin Engine Jets For IAF
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/modi-gove ... rs-for-iaf

The move to open up the contest to twin-engine fighters will have two advantages. One, it will theoretically increase India’s options. Under the single-engine plan, Lockheed Martin F-16 Block 70 and Saab Gripen-E were the only options India had. With the government considering twin-engine fighters, the competition is now open to Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Sukhoi Su-35 and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Two, broadening the competition would definitely increase the competition between the bidders, helping India get a better deal.

Same nonsense argument again. We will never learn

Yeah, just cause it comes from a non congi govt doesn't make it any better.... Best to buy some used mkis, mirages and fulcrums and be done with it... Use the money for more Tejas and upgrade the mkis.

[Singha]

this govt cannot envisage a 20b deal of any nature with 2019 elections looming.

the next govt whoever it is will keep kicking the ball down the court.

[Cain Marko]

The more things change.... The more they stay the same

[Philip]

CM,been saying that for aeons! The problem is that the blessed IAF want to buy glitzy fillys like Nirav Modi buys watches!

[srin]

If we've solved the availability and spares issues, I'd say go for a few squadrons of Sukhois (made by HAL and Russia - 2 squadrons a year).

[V_Raman]

GE aviation is in serious financial trouble - any deal here will be similar to what SU-30MKI was to Sukhoi. GE aviation is too strategic for USA to give up. And GE aviation has to stay independent - cannot be acquired by Boeing or LM as that will essentially end EU and USA co-opetition

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Here we go again.

Kudos to Shivji for the title.

[KrishnaK]

this govt cannot envisage a 20b deal of any nature with 2019 elections looming.

the next govt whoever it is will keep kicking the ball down the court.

There's always the possibility that some bipartisan consensus is reached.

Incidentally from this previously posted article

On the reasons for not backing the single-engine aircraft programme where 114 planes were to be manufactured indigenously in partnership with either USA or Sweden, sources said there were allegations of favouritism and wrongdoings even before the deal was initiated.

If that bit of news is right and if I had to wager, I'd say it was to do with Adani's involvement.

[Singha]

Its too political a deal to pass our parliament

[Philip]

The obvious solution cheapest too, is more 29/35s or MKIs.Even an SU-35, single pilot could cut down operating/ manpower costs, but there are too many vested,"west-ed" interests and the IAF want fancy western " sports cars" to play with.Real core aircraft reqd. for winning a war like dedicated GA/CS support, the boring role that the IAF perform for the IA,allegedly by the IA somewhat reluctantly, is spurned by the IAF,why the IA is getting LCHs and possible Apaches too.They also want light attack aircraft for the above role and either Tucano class or even armed , armoured Hawks could fo the biz.Both the US and Russia are keeping on their legacy A-10s and SU-25s for ghe role having found these armoured " flying tanks" invaluable.

But faced with the latest 2.5 war scenario, the IAF must realise that only numbers will allow it to face any crisis with confidence.We can expect from the last war at least 100 aircraft losses given that ground air defences are so much more sophisticated.Therefore,"bomb trucks" armed with PGMs launched at stand-off range are essential.The farce of the clearly "tilted" SEF fighter req. has mercifully been shot down.

Years ago when the MMRCA deal was in its initial stages I favoured a split acquisition because of high costs of the two eurocanards,as an option.The IAF however were very clear." No split acquisition!" A decade on, it is the IAF that is eating its own words having been given only an "appetiser" sized portion of Rafales, as expensive as truffles and foie gras,and therefore served in limited portions, while the more wholesome main course is eagerly awaited.What that will be is anyone's .One thing is for sure though, it won't be "butter chicken" or "chopsuey"!

[Cosmo_R]

^^"

It is here where Lockheed Martin shines out from the rest...including Dassault. Nobody can churn out combat platforms - in numbers - like the way they do. Although, I am unsure about Boeing. Perhaps brar can advise on that aspect. But If I were LM, I would be working on a proposal to offer the IAF (via a G2G contract) for a 2 + 2 option for the F-35A. I would start small, because that is most attractive price wise. LM has not lost anything, in fact they are sitting on a winning solution that the US Govt just cannot see."

They already saw it in the first MMRCA bake-off. At that time (pliocene epoch), the JSF was not operational (part of the 5.3 million ASQRs), so LM publicly stated that they saw a need for 180 F-16s which could be a 'transitional a/c' for the IAF to move to the (then) future JSF. They even hinted broadly that they could engineer a 'trade-in' when the JSF arrived.

Of course, then LM were apprehensive about the JSF's market prospects. Now they are not, so the deal may not be that sweet. Anyway, the F-16 as a transitional a/c which will cost more on a flyway basis doesn't work.

As brar_w has pointed out somewhere, an off-the-shelf buy is 20% less than a FACO

Narrowing options lead to remaining action (2019):

-Exercise option for 18 more Rafales
-FMS with GOTUS for 108 JSF with DCS with LM and others for expendables (MRO) and munitions (integrate Indian weapons). Work with Israel leverage their integration experience on Derby/Python. As to availability, if anyone can do it, it's LM.

Maybe the Trumpmeister can be convinced to 'offload' the JSF and claim victory.

[Vips]

this govt cannot envisage a 20b deal of any nature with 2019 elections looming.

the next govt whoever it is will keep kicking the ball down the court.

If Modi wins in 2019 then this deal will happen and god forbid if Pappu wins then AK Antony would rather pass out during a IAF program then make a decision. God save Bharat varsh then.

[brar_w]

With this never ending saga now guaranteed to lead to a post 2020 decision (if one at all) the only viable contenders are the F-35A and the Rafale. Most of the 4.5 gen birds will be well into their last fourth of their production run including the Typhoon, SH, and perhaps even the Rafale. So in the end it comes down to politics, and how comfortable the MOD is with what it is likely to get as part of both these deals. Here the Rafale is at an advantage in terms of the long standing relationship with Dassault and France as far as fighter aircraft is concerned, and given that it would already be operational with the IAF by the time this is ever decided. That is about the only advantage that the Rafale enjoys imho as we can see around the world where air-forces have to choose b/w the two.

When the original MMRCA was in competitive stage the JSF was in development with a lot of hard work and uncertainty that lay ahead. Fast forward to now, and when this decision is likely to be taken - More F-35's would be flying by the mid 2020s than Typhoons, Rafale's, MiG-35's and Gripen's combined.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1gEatZFndU

[Vips]

Only silver lining here is the delay in making decision would give us the chance to the skip the 4th generation birds(No matter how many + in the suffix) and buy the more capable 5th generation ones.

With increasing production and sales if F35 unit cost really comes down to $80 Million, then the decision is a no brainer. The caveat here is that for this to happen North and South block should not be infested with leftist/islam pasand cockroaches from Congress and UPA.

[Rakesh]

As brar_w has pointed out somewhere, an off-the-shelf buy is 20% less than a FACO.

That is the *ONLY* option right now. Off the shelf. Our bureaucracy will ruin FACO. More on this below.

Narrowing options lead to remaining action (2019):

-Exercise option for 18 more Rafales
-FMS with GOTUS for 108 JSF with DCS with LM and others for expendables (MRO) and munitions (integrate Indian weapons). Work with Israel leverage their integration experience on Derby/Python. As to availability, if anyone can do it, it's LM.

Maybe the Trumpmeister can be convinced to 'offload' the JSF and claim victory.

Seeing how dicey the situation is right now, no additional Rafales are coming till post May 2019. That is a given. If BJP wins, a follow on order of 36 - 44 Rafales will likely come. Again, off the shelf only. If Congress wins and RaGa opens the Rafale deal to find the ghotala that he is harping out, he will find nothing, close the file and act like nothing even happened. Then quietly he will order additional Rafales citing IAF's operational need. All politics onlee.

But on to the F-35. Saar, not 108 F-35s. I like the number, but it is the MoD I am petrified about. MoD Babus get khujli when they see large numbers and then will ask for ToT, License Production, FACO line and all that wonderful stuff at a price that LM will balk. So start off at 2+2 option and off the shelf. Look at additional numbers later. That is the only solution to get the F-35. You ask for 100+ F-35s and the MoD will ruin it. We need to learn from MMRCA - Episode I and MMRCA - Episode II. We have proven that we are incapable of doing screwdrivergiri on western aircraft. Even the Russian birds we build, turn out to be more expensive than buying them directly from Russia. Spectacular Failure!

I can guarentee 100% that Episode III will also fail. The IAF is one who suffers because of the MoD's foolishness. So thus G2G deal, non-FACO, 2+2 option. And while 2+2 will do squat to address the squadron shortage, the capability leap that it offers the IAF will negate some of the effect. And don't even customize anything on the F-35 until they land on Indian soil. Otherwise the MoD will mess that up too. Once the birds come, then the IAF can adopt the strategy of customizing them via Israel. And America should not mind. They just don't want the Russians anywhere near that plane and fully understandable.

To address squadron shortage, it has to be the Tejas. The Tejas is the aircraft that the IAF needs to buy in numbers. Lethargy needs to give way for Efficiency. If HAL cannot deliver, then HAL needs to go. I have zero faith in Adani, but TASL can certainly tool up. Give a line to TASL for the Tejas and get them to churn out planes as well.

Trump is the only one who can pull this off. Democrats are preachy (human rights, religious rights) and will ask for the moon. This will make getting the F-35 a lot tougher, because India will have to give a lot more concessions. India has got less than three years to hash out a deal before Trump leaves (assuming he loses the 2020 elections). Post 2020, additional options can be acquired for the F-35 even if it is a President who is a Democrat.

[Will]

The obvious solution cheapest too, is more 29/35s or MKIs.Even an SU-35, single pilot could cut down operating/ manpower costs, but there are too many vested,"west-ed" interests and the IAF want fancy western " sports cars" to play with.

Philip ji. Please................ no more brochure planes from mother Russia. What good are they when even getting them into the air is a task in itself.