Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread - June 2015

[Y. Kanan]

2008 article.
http://davidfrum.com/article/history-lesson
Lesson for India here? Can India offer its neighborhood "security on favorable terms"? The grumbling will be inevitable, too.

Trustworthy security, Madden contends, is what Rome offered first to Italy and then to the entire Mediterranean world. And it is what the United States offers today.

Ha! Please tell me that is a joke. Just ask US ally Iraq about the security the US has offered them. The US isn't interested in peace or security except in those narrow domains that serve its interest. The US is the biggest destabilizing influence in the world today.

[ricky_v]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-china-built-an-army-of-influence-agents-in-the-us?ref=home

The organization has been around in one form or another since the World War II era. Mao famously referred to the United Front as one of the Communist Party’s “magic weapons.” These days, United Front operations sometimes resemble the CIA’s soft attempts to buy off, co-opt, or coerce influential community leaders. Sometimes it functions like a booster club for pro-party locals, or like an advocacy group trying to sway public opinion. Sometimes it works in concert with China’s traditional intelligence agencies, such as the Ministry of State Security, to gather information or apply pressure. And United Front networks may sometimes play a role in facilitating intellectual property theft and soft intelligence collection, though that role isn’t always clear.

“No matter the time, no matter the situation, the Chinese government and 1.4 billion Chinese people will always have your back,” said Li in his remarks. “I believe that this new cohort of leadership will continue… to unite the power of overseas Chinese, and hold high the banners of anti-independence and peaceful unification.”

Peaceful reunification associations serve as one of the CCP’s main connection points with Chinese-American communities. They function as welcome centers for visiting government officials, as platforms for the dissemination of party propaganda, as hubs that allow Beijing to identify and potentially co-opt prominent community members, and as centers for local community organizing, such as hosting cultural events.

At its heart, United Front strategy involves amplifying friendly voices and suppressing critical ones. After the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the CCP realized that it had a major global image problem, and it feared that the pro-democracy movement would flourish in overseas Chinese communities and then seep back in China. So the party launched what would become a decades-long expansion of United Front activity abroad, particularly among diaspora communities. The aim was to build party-linked networks in overseas Chinese communities, keep them connected to Beijing, and quash any anti-party organizing.

These overseas efforts have targeted independent Chinese-language media outlets, Chinese student and community groups, Chinese businesses and organizations, and increasingly, prominent non-Chinese individuals and organizations, including campaign donors and politicians, with the goal of convincing them to promote Beijing’s policies and interests in their host countries.

In Australia, a major scandal unfolded last year after it was revealed that Huang Xiangmo, a top political donor and president of the country’s peaceful reunification association, had attempted to use his donations to sway Australia’s position on the South China Sea, a hotly contested region that China claims as its own. In New Zealand, the peaceful reunification association organizes Chinese community members to fundraise and block-vote for China-friendly politicians.

In 2009, while serving as president of the Chinese hometown associations group, He was invited to Beijing to serve as an overseas delegate to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), one of China’s two rubber-stamp legislatures and another important United Front body that identifies influential overseas Chinese and aims to incorporate them into the party’s overseas goals.

“China has gone through three stages regarding its approach to overseas Chinese making contributions to China,” said Yang. “The earliest stage was emphasizing that overseas scholars should return home to serve China. Later, we realized that serving China doesn’t necessarily require returning to China. Now, China is placing an emphasis on our development in foreign countries, paying close attention to whether or not we can enter local mainstream society and play an active role in the politics and debate of our host countries.”

[Neshant]

China looks on track to replacing the US as the number 1 power in under 3 decades.

That timeline could shrink even faster is US slips up on a few fronts.

The main advantage US has over China right now is a list of strong allies.

China has a list of strong enemies only, no major allies. Even the countries it claims are allies do not trust it.

US needs to forge an economic NATO of sorts and soon before the scales begin to move significantly.

----

FBI, CIA Sound Alarm Over China Cold War, Warn "Most Significant" Threat Facing US

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... -facing-us

"At the end of the day, the Chinese fundamentally seek to replace the United States as the leading power in the world." -Michael Collins, CIA Dep. Asst. Dir. East Asia Mission Center

[ramana]

Westphalia nation-states which are based on Secularism to get out of Abrahamic strait jacket constantly need enemies to survive.
On the other hand civilizational state march on once the collaboraters are pruned.

Xi Jinping already said that in his acceptance speech so what is this secret report for!

[Prem]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... alk-russia
Here's The Real Reason The US Must Talk To Russia

The United States’ industrial-military-intel-security complex profits from a compounded annual budget of roughly US$1 trillion. The only justification for such whopping expenditure is to manufacture a lethal external threat: Russia. That’s the key reason the complex will not allow US President Donald Trump even to try to normalize relations with Russia.Yet now this is a whole new ball game as the US faces a formidable adversary that, as Martyanov carefully details, deploys five crucial capabilities.Command, control, communications, computers, intel, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities equal to or better than the US.Electronic warfare capabilities equal to or better than the US.New weapons systems equal to or better than the US.Air defense systems that are more than a match for US airpower.Long-range subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles that threaten the US Empire of Bases and even the entire US mainland.Martyanov argues that Russia, all through the first decade of the millennium, spent enough time “defining herself in terms of enclosed technological cycles, localization and manufacturing.”In contrast, Germany, even with a large, developed economy, “cannot design and build from scratch a state-of-the-art fighter jet,” while Russia can. Germany “doesn’t have a space industry, and Russia does.”
And then there was Russia’s campaign in Syria; on October 7, 2015, six 3M14 Kalibr cruise missiles were launched in intervals of five seconds from the Russian Navy’s small missile ships in the Caspian Sea, aimed at Daesh targets in Syria. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and its carrier battle group immediately understood the message – exiting the Persian Gulf in a flash.Since then, the message has been amplified: the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, or “the Russian Navy’s Pacific zones of responsibility” are becoming “completely closed zones for any adversary.”The lesson from the Kalibr-in-the-Caspian saga, writes Martyanov, is that “for the first time it was openly demonstrated, and the world took note, that the American monopoly on symbols of power was officially broken.”‘
It’s crystal clear that President Trump is applying Kissingerian divide-and-rule tactics, trying to reduce Russian political/economic connectivity with the two other Eurasian integration poles, China and Iran.Still, the swamp cannot possibly contemplate The Big Picture – as this must-watch conversation between two of the very few Americans who actually know Russia in-depth attests. Professor Stephen Cohen and Professor John Mearsheimer go to the jugular: Nothing can be done when Russophobia is the law of the land.Over and over again, we must go back to Putin’s March 1 speech, which presented the US with what can only be described, writes Martyanov, as “a military-technological Pearl Harbor-meets-Stalingrad.”Martyanov goes all the way to explain how the latest Russian weapons systems present immense strategic – and historical – ramifications. The missile gap between the US and Russia is now “a technological abyss,” with ballistic missiles “capable of trajectories which render any kind of anti-ballistic defense useless.” Star Wars and its derivatives are now – to use a Trumpism – “obsolete.”The Kinzhal, as described by Martyanov, is “a complete game-changer geopolitically, strategically, operationally, tactically and psychologically.” In a nutshell, “no modern or prospective air-defense system deployed today by NATO can intercept even a single missile with such characteristics.”This means, among other things – and stressing it is never enough – that the whole Eastern Mediterranean can be closed off, not to mention the whole Persian Gulf. And all this goes way beyond asymmetry; it’s about “the final arrival of a completely new paradigm” in warfare and military technology.Martyanov’s must-read book is the ultimate Weapon of Myth Destruction (WMD). And unlike the Saddam Hussein version, this one actually exists.

[Neshant]

China: Tibetan students banned from religious activities

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 113922.cms

[Neshant]

[RoyG]

it's true. i would say overall china has surpassed the US. chinese still dont enjoy the same standard of living but they are going to close that gap too. for the very high technology items in some areas they are still about 5 years behind. the west has to really think of something to keep its competitive edge. the way the the ccp can mobilize its people and technology and leapfrog is staggering. russia and china both will dominate asia, no doubt about it. India will have to carve a niche out for itself and the subcontinent and for that to happen it will have to pivot to the west to an extent unless of course China becomes amenable to pakistan. in that case its game over for USA.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.lawfareblog.com/misreading- ... ign-policy

Ultimately, opposition to Trump must not be the same as a tight embrace of pre-2017 U.S. foreign policy. The time to start seriously engaging in these debates is now; as Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper rightly argue, “Internationalists must thus resist the urge to become absolute defenders of the pre-Trump status quo.” Alongside resistance and critique, the Trump era requires new thinking and choices among difficult trade-offs. As Heather Hurlburt notes, “It seems unlikely that a return to the policy and rhetoric of the mid-2010s will prove more politically sustainable in 2021 than it did in 2016.” Self-reflection and debate about the future of U.S. foreign policy can create a more compelling vision of the future than backward-looking invocations of the past.

We need a different conversation that breaks from intellectual inertia. The elements of the order that should be rebuilt need to be advocated for on their own terms. Which allies are worth dying for? When and how should the United States intervene in other countries’ domestic politics? How expansive should America’s global footprint be? What policies are best suited to managing a rising Asia? Core tenets of the liberal order are certain to be part of the answers to these questions—but they will be insufficient on their own. The old order is gone; the key question is how to most successfully move beyond the dangerous and mercurial worldview of Donald Trump.

[pankajs]

cross post
-----------
US forming its own Belts and Roads forum! This should be of interest to India.

I don;t know what they intend to do but if they are really serious it would make sense to get strategic equity in and around IOR + ASEAN and ensure a big American share of the future growth in the region. If followed up and implemented properly it is likely to extend American hegemony.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 185059.cms
Trump administration set to announce major Indo-Pacific economic, developmental initiatives

WASHINGTON: The Trump administration is all set to roll out its major policy initiatives to address the massive infrastructural and energy needs of the Indo-Pacific region where India is seen as one of the anchor countries for greater connectivity and trade.

President Donald Trump has lined up his top Cabinet members - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Energy Secretary Rick Perry - at US Chambers of Commerce which is hosting the first Indo-Pacific Business Forum meeting tomorrow.

The Forum will introduce the economic and commercial elements of the US' whole-of-government Indo-Pacific strategy and will include participation from senior administration officials, private sector and officials representing Indo-Pacific nations. The move comes nine months after the Trump administration openly spoke against the "predatory economic policies of an Asian giant" that threatens to eat into sovereignty of countries in Indo-Pacific, which has now emerged as a critical engine for growth.

Asian economies are now projected to create 50 per cent of global GDP in coming decades.

To realise that potential, countries of the Indo-Pacific will need to attract nearly $26 trillion in capital from the private sector and not the government to fund their energy and infrastructure needs, Nisha Desai Biswal, president of the US India Business Council (USIBC) said.

She said American companies will be critical players in both investment of capital and technology-building and infrastructure that the region requires.

"It's an event that brings together business, private sector and many of our partners from the region to have a conversation about how we can boost engagement investment across the Indo Pacific," Biswal, a key player in this initiative, told PTI ahead of the first Forum.

In addition to Pompeo, Ross and Perry envisioning the administration's policies for the Indo-Pacific region, other top administration officials include USAID Administrator Mark Green, OPIC President Ray Washburne, Acting Ex-Im Bank Chairman Jeffrey Gerrish, and US Chamber President and CEO Thomas J Donohue.

"All would be making announcements or sharing key investment opportunities that they are advancing in the Indo-Pacific region," Desai said.

The Indian Ambassador to the US, Navtej Singh Sarna, is among the few diplomats from the region who have been invited to speak during the forum event.

Senator Mark Warner, co-chair of the Senate India Caucus, would provide Congressional perspective on how it's important for the US public and private sector to be engaged in the Indo-Pacific region.

"What we hope that there will be a lot of outcomes that come from this Indo Pacific Business Forum," said Biswal, who served as the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia in the second term of the Obama administration.

"The forum will highlight US government initiatives to advance economic engagement in the region, particularly on key sectors including energy and infrastructure and the digital economy," State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert said.

"The forum will also emphasise the importance of public-private partnerships, the benefits of transparency and good governance, and unlocking the power of markets for sustainable development, and the need for US collaboration with regional partners," she said.

Immediately after the event, Pompeo would leave for Singapore to attend the ASEAN ministerial.

He will have an opportunity to engage with his counterparts in the region and be able to take the business strategy and the economic strategy for the Indo-Pacific that has been articulated in this event and be able to engage with his counterparts from the region to further have conversations and discuss next steps, Biswal said.

.Responding to a question, the former State Department official asserted that the $26 trillion infrastructure gap across the Indo-Pacific region would come from the private sector and not from the government

"It's largely going to be how we leverage private investment into the region to build the infrastructure and the connectivity, whether it's the energy infrastructure or the transport infrastructure, or the digital infrastructure where India is such a leader for the region," Biswal said.

India is a critically important player in the entire scheme of things, she argued, noting that over the years it has emerged as a much more consequential player in Southeast Asia.[We will see]

"We really do see that India is one of the anchor countries in how we bring this whole region into greater connectivity and boost commerce and trade across the region," she said.

"We also know that in many areas, including in the digital economy, India is a leader and a pioneer that has a lot of knowledge to share. We know that India is a very important market for the countries of Asia and we want to support that greater collaboration in the region," she said.

"The US has a strong interest in also supporting all of the trading connectivity and being part of it," she said, adding that American business, technology and capital has an important role to play.

"So, the Chamber is hosting this gathering as an effort to really bring together different players and different perspectives and create some opportunities for those connections to be made," she said.

Biswal refuted the notion that the forum is intended against China. "I don't think that this is in any way intended to be a message to any particular country. This is meant to be an articulation of a robust policy and engagement from the US, from the government and from the business community and desire to do so in a way that is collaborative and consultative with our partners and counterparts across the region," she said.

[Neshant]

US forming its own Belts and Roads forum! This should be of interest to India.

I don;t know what they intend to do but if they are really serious it would make sense to get strategic equity in and around IOR + ASEAN and ensure a big American share of the future growth in the region.

India would surely lend it's efforts and markets towards promotion of this American Indo-Pac development initiative.

It has to go beyond mere discussion however towards actual implementation with like minded allies like Japan, Singapore, Vietnam..etc.

A common energy market for instance with SE Asia would be an idea worth exploring with US involvement. One where the SE Asians could sell India surplus electricity from a common grid and vice versa. Common design for power stations (gas, coal, hydro) and common transmission equipment to lower costs.

Trump is doing a great job which Obama should have been doing during his tenor.

[ramana]

Compare and contrast the situation for the three defeated Axis powers: Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Italy is a political basket case even 70 years after end of World War II.
Germany was re-united after end of Cold War and has become Economic giant of Europe. The collapse of Former Soviet Union has removed it's primary security threat. Now it has energy dependence on Russia.

Japan is number 3 world economy. But end of Cold War did not bring relief as China has become number 2 world economy and is militarizing at rapid pace.
In fact Japan has double threat on Military and Economic fronts. It's society is also under stress due to the flat line per capita for last two decades.

[kit]

China looks on track to replacing the US as the number 1 power in under 3 decades.

That timeline could shrink even faster is US slips up on a few fronts.

The main advantage US has over China right now is a list of strong allies.

China has a list of strong enemies only, no major allies. Even the countries it claims are allies do not trust it.

US needs to forge an economic NATO of sorts and soon before the scales begin to move significantly.

----

FBI, CIA Sound Alarm Over China Cold War, Warn "Most Significant" Threat Facing US

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07- ... -facing-us

"At the end of the day, the Chinese fundamentally seek to replace the United States as the leading power in the world." -Michael Collins, CIA Dep. Asst. Dir. East Asia Mission Center

with Trump on the lead ., the US doesnt need a lot of enemies .. which "ally" actually trusts the US ?.. they might depend on it because of no choice ..for now..

[chetak]

Compare and contrast the situation for the three defeated Axis powers: Germany, Italy, and Japan.
Italy is a political basket case even 70 years after end of World War II.
Germany was re-united after end of Cold War and has become Economic giant of Europe. The collapse of Former Soviet Union has removed it's primary security threat. Now it has energy dependence on Russia.

Japan is number 3 world economy. But end of Cold War did not bring relief as China has become number 2 world economy and is militarizing at rapid pace.
In fact Japan has double threat on Military and Economic fronts. It's society is also under stress due to the flat line per capita for last two decades.

japan has a huge stockpile of fissile material and is already space launch capable.

It is only a few screwdriver turns away from fully weaponizing, if it hasn't already quietly done so.

china, more than many others well knows that japan is certainly not a pushover, either militarily or economically.

Japan has a huge MIC in place, a holdover from the pre WWII era.

All the chinese can do is yap and egg NOKO on to trouble japan

Japan’s Gigantic Stockpile of Plutonium

19 February 2014

On Monday, Beijing said it was “extremely concerned” that Japan had resisted returning more than 300 kilograms of plutonium, most of it weapons-grade, to the United States. The material, purchased from America in the 1960s for research purposes, is enough to make 50 nuclear weapons.

Some think Tokyo will agree to hand back the fissile material in March, at the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague. Even if it does so, the loss will hardly put a dent in its stockpile: the Japanese possess 44 tons of plutonium. Three-quarters of this fissile material is stored in other countries, but Japan has kept 10 tons on its own soil. Those 10 tons are enough to build about 1,500 nuclear weapons.

Japan has more plutonium than any other state that does not have an arsenal of nukes. How did it acquire so much of the world’s most dangerous element? It is the only non-nuke arsenal state that reprocesses plutonium. It reprocesses the material for fuel for its reactors, but the country has shut down all its nuclear power plants in the aftermath of the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi disaster, Japan’s Chernobyl. So Japan, at least at this moment, has virtually no power-generation need for its gigantic store of plutonium.

[ricky_v]

Historic time and present time have a weird parallelism of overlapping existing norms in a different shaped bottle. The case of the self proclaimed successor of the (Western) Roman Empire, the supposed "Pacific Roman Power" the US and the core of the Persian power left today, Iran serve this viewpoint. That terminology might be a bit tenuous but for the proclivity of the powers that be to view of themselves as precisely that. At the moment this wing of the "Roman Legacy" is edging towards a war with one of the "Orient".

Into this mix, is added the successor of the Eastern Roman Empire or the one that lasted after the first edition fell quite early, and can be called as the "Eastern Roman Power 2.0" a supposed ally of the "Orient".This wing of the "roman legacy" is benevolent towards the other party though these parties have had long differences and some wars.

The third of the roman legacy is the currently evolving one, a successor of the holy roman empire and represented by germanic tribes speaking germanic languages and germanic tribes speaking latin languages. Now with the self exclusion of the anglo mole uk, this federation of germany and france as the lead and nords as the vanguard can be brought about. The outliers as always to this scheme of things will be the magyar and the slavs. This wing at the moment is neutral towards the orient.
So at the moment we have two confirmed roman empires, one in the making all and a resurgent albeit moth eaten ottoman and persian empire and arab confederacy.

Coming to the anglos, Oz is the most loyal of the lot and has no problem in proclaiming it; the us with its demographic changes and racial admixture has just the links of language binding the alliance, though it wont break them anytime soon.

Iberia, a different beast altogether with "mongrelized"sensibilities has its future to the other side of the pond, where the Amerindians, those who had successful civilization starters in three different places have no will power to mount a challenge for world leadership.

Also, curiously, the polish jewish power nexus has had a resurgence in the us halls of power and perception. The mostly northern european(german) and dutch settlers populating the midwest, south are the ones who are not entirely co-opted, the last time this happened, a rather angry german took offense and gave us all the gift of remembering the only wrong thing to have ever been perpetuated against any member of the human race.

[Singha]

demographic map of europe incl eastern turkey(anatolia is asia).

the only large pool of working age is poland and now kurdish region anatolia. which must be why poles flooded into UK post EUnification. MNCs are also building captive offices in places like krakow. note ireland is purple too perhaps on the strength of their own loins.
the purple part of Gaul may be middle-east migrant concentrations. the blob looks like its in paree.

[Neshant]

demographic map of europe incl eastern turkey(anatolia is asia).

the only large pool of working age is poland and now kurdish region anatolia. which must be why poles flooded into UK post EUnification. MNCs are also building captive offices in places like krakow. note ireland is purple too perhaps on the strength of their own loins.
the purple part of Gaul may be middle-east migrant concentrations. the blob looks like its in paree.

The deliberately planned flood of 2 million+ refugees from Syria into Europe is part of the plan called "The Great Replacement".

The ones they are replacing are European stock who have been taxed by central banking (aka private banksters) into a low birth rate.

Unless and until these parasite banksters are gotten rid of and the power of money and soveignty returned to the inhabitants of the land, it will continue.

[Singha]

i dont know if any grand plan, but germany was certainly quick to roll out the welcome mat and get them into apprentice schools for manufacturing industry training. most of the syrian refugees who made it to europe had to pay turkish smugglers and others in the chain....so they were educated middle class, not the poor. the poor stayed in place.

[ramana]

The importance of Helsenki meeting is lost in the din in US.
We can tell grand children we saw Yalta 2.0 but didn't know it.

[panduranghari]

it's true. i would say overall china has surpassed the US.

On what assumptions would you make such a statement?

Just because some (vested interests) keep repeating this ad nauseum does not make it so.

For starters some considerations:
1/ stealing technology and making screwdrivergiri modifications is not building up intellectual and research infrastructure
2/ limiting what people say and do by using social credit scores, prevents the truly curious mind from exploring the limits of understanding.
3/ forcing apparatchiks from doing governmental bidding by using governmental influence and producing things which no one really needs, does not make you an manufacturing powerhouse
4/ more old people than young workers forces governmental expenditure towards looking after the old, leaving limited funds for raising living standards. True automation and AI are a few decades away. China officially gets old in 2030. That's just 12 years away.
5/ the ruined environment due to rampant and uncontrolled industrialisation will need a lot of time=money to fix. China can't afford that and at the same time be at war with 8 of its neighbours.
6/ while the talking heads constantly say how the ever intelligent Chinese keep learning from the mistakes of FSU and Japan, what they fail to account for is essential and objective opposition to policies which perhaps a few can see are unlikely to work (e.g. BRI)

There might be more points but I won't be carried away with the zeitgeist that Chinese are the most intelligent, most benevolent and are constantly playing 'GO' while the rest of the world is playing marbles.

[A_Gupta]

The dysfunctions of USA, Europe, India are much more visible to us than those of China.

[A_Gupta]

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/the-most- ... inst-india
Is India Really The ‘Most Dangerous Country’ For Women?

Yes, this is an essential part of geopolitics.

[A_Gupta]

The importance of Helsenki meeting is lost in the din in US.
We can tell grand children we saw Yalta 2.0 but didn't know it.

Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Dan “Coats clearly stated that he is "not in a position to either understand fully or talk about what happened in Helsinki.”” **

So pardon us our confusion about the importance of Helsinki.

**
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/02/politics ... index.html

[ramana]

Here is Yalta description.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference

Compare and contrast Yalta to Helsinki
Only two powers.
Exactly 30 years after Cold War ended and not as it was winding down.

What would be US in interests in the meeting?
What would be Russian.interests in the meeting?

Refer to speeches by Putin.and Trump on topics discussed.
What was common points made by both leaders?
What was different points made by both leaders?

[A_Gupta]

^^^ That's the point. Even Trump's Director of National Intelligence doesn't know what happened there, so we'd truly only be guessing. Trump is not particularly known for his adherence to any kind of truth, so when he talks, the only thing one can know for sure is that his mouth is moving. We have thus only a few things that the Russians claim happened at that meeting.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-f ... on-purpose

On Thursday, the Washington Post published a remarkable story on its front page revealing a recent spike in the number of “false and misleading claims” made by President Trump. In his first year as President, Trump made 2,140 false claims, according to the Post. In just the last six months, he has nearly doubled that total to 4,229. In June and July, he averaged sixteen false claims a day. On July 5th, the Post found what appears to be Trump’s most untruthful day yet: seventy-six per cent of the ninety-eight factual assertions he made in a campaign-style rally in Great Falls, Montana, were “false, misleading or unsupported by evidence.”

[UlanBatori]

Nice spat between KSA and Canadastan. Wonder why Canada imports Saudi oil?

Saudi Arabia expelled the Canadian ambassador on Monday and froze "all new business" with Ottawa over its criticism of the kingdom's arrest of women's rights activists. Among the arrested activists is Samar Badawi, whose writer brother Raif Badawi was arrested in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and later sentenced to 1,000 lashes and 10 years in prison for insulting Islam while blogging. {Ya Alla*! We maulanas on the BENIS dhaga were way too lenient!}
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday that his nation would continue diplomatic talks with Saudi Arabia but wouldn't back down on raising human rights issues.
"Canada will always speak strongly and clearly in private and in public and be pompous asses on questions of human rights," he said.
Saudi Arabia plans to pull out thousands of students and medical patients from Canada over the spat. Since the crisis began, Saudi state-run television and other channels backing the kingdom have been airing programs criticizing Canada and accusing it of jailing "prisoners of conscience." (aka IED-soosai-vest wielders)
The sudden decision bore the hallmarks of Saudi Arabia's assertive 32-year-old Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who also was the architect of the country's war in Yemen and involved in the ongoing boycott of Qatar by four Arab nations.

OK! Direct flights coming, Montreal- Quatar, I hope. Maybe Toronto-Teheran as well.

[UlanBatori]

Speaking of drones, No South America dhaga, so posting here.

The WSJ had a shockingly gloating editorial that basically applauded the televised assassination attempt against Venezuelan PM. Conveniently ignoring that pretty-much every assassination in Latin America has ultimately been DeClassified as a unohu Agints operation (Pinochet of Chile comes to mind..). So the default villains are, well... u no hu.

Then again, that was one strange attack: the UAV seemed to have a fair amount of explosive in it, similar to one of the "dynamite" rockets used in Malloostan festivals. Probably petroleum, from the look of the blast. Yet why did it blow up way high instead of coming down in the final dive? Did someone hit it with a bullet? Or was it a Musharraf-type "Oh look they blew up a bum 100 meters after my limo passed! Arrest the Shia!" operation?

To his credit, the PM never dived or cowered. Maybe he had too much confidence in the "assassins" or maybe he is one brave man. Or like DeGaulle (reputedly), he said: "the terrorists never learned to shoot straight!"

Anyway, shows that nothing much has changed since the John Foster Dulles / Bay of Pigs days in South American politics. Also, a dire warning to u-no-hu. Hope RAA has good anti-drone defenses with extremely fast rate of response and rate of fire.

Those blast-mats that came up were pretty interesting, though far too late.

[ramana]

The dysfunctions of USA, Europe, India are much more visible to us than those of China.

So George Freidman of Stratfor was on Bloomberg Radio this morning talking about China.
First the background:
China about 150 years ago was very fractured state that got integrated by Mao's Communist party.
Chinese Communist party is not a monolith. The coast faction wants good relations with West as it benefits them. The interior faction has seen little benefit and is wondering whats going on.
China's structural problem is it had built an economy based on exports and little internal consumption. I think he is exaggerating here but he said about a billion are in poverty in China.

XJP is a strong man and the trade wars are increasing the problem of managing change in China.

They soon have to come to terms with Trump.

I think a free trade agreement between US-China that supersedes the WTO benefits to China will be hammered out.

[Neshant]

India is trying to help US by buying American oil that China has stopped buying.

-------

How US-China trade war may bring cheaper oil to Indian shores

China's biggest trading house has already stopped buying US crude and LNG.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 333316.cms

[UlanBatori]

And that hopefully will be a template for an India-cheen deal as well. (hoping..)
Right now trade is de facto bilateral, though the WTO is hovering in the background. You can't just call up Abdul in Scandinavia and order a few burkhas to be delivered, equipped with a few interior pockets etc. You have to get Customs and Commerce Dept permission and in the case of this product, DoD and FBI clearance because they are dual-use.

I wonder if block-chain (or whatever replaces it with something computationally efficient) will herald a new global trading system that renders WTO etc defunct. This would essentially bring in PPP (purchashing power parity) as the trade equalizer, and go to virtual global barter. I "sell" burkha cloth to Abdul, Abdul sells IEDs to Rashid, Rashid sells nails to Bubba, Bubba sells wood to Ayesha, Ayesha sells goats to Minhas, Minhas exports frozen tandoori to Ryan and so on until someone sells me a few barrles of beer in exchange for the cloth I sold. All done in a millisecond.

[UlanBatori]

Gasoline prices don't show any sign of a glut...

[ramana]

UB Here is link to India-South America thread....

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5359&p=2287784#p2287784

[ramana]

Historic time and present time have a weird parallelism of overlapping existing norms in a different shaped bottle. The case of the self proclaimed successor of the (Western) Roman Empire, the supposed "Pacific Roman Power" the US and the core of the Persian power left today, Iran serve this viewpoint. That terminology might be a bit tenuous but for the proclivity of the powers that be to view of themselves as precisely that. At the moment this wing of the "Roman Legacy" is edging towards a war with one of the "Orient".

Into this mix, is added the successor of the Eastern Roman Empire or the one that lasted after the first edition fell quite early, and can be called as the "Eastern Roman Power 2.0" a supposed ally of the "Orient".This wing of the "roman legacy" is benevolent towards the other party though these parties have had long differences and some wars.

The third of the roman legacy is the currently evolving one, a successor of the holy roman empire and represented by germanic tribes speaking germanic languages and germanic tribes speaking latin languages. Now with the self exclusion of the anglo mole uk, this federation of germany and france as the lead and nords as the vanguard can be brought about. The outliers as always to this scheme of things will be the magyar and the slavs. This wing at the moment is neutral towards the orient.
So at the moment we have two confirmed roman empires, one in the making all and a resurgent albeit moth eaten ottoman and persian empire and arab confederacy.

Coming to the anglos, Oz is the most loyal of the lot and has no problem in proclaiming it; the us with its demographic changes and racial admixture has just the links of language binding the alliance, though it wont break them anytime soon.

Iberia, a different beast altogether with "mongrelized"sensibilities has its future to the other side of the pond, where the Amerindians, those who had successful civilization starters in three different places have no will power to mount a challenge for world leadership.

Also, curiously, the polish jewish power nexus has had a resurgence in the us halls of power and perception. The mostly northern european(german) and dutch settlers populating the midwest, south are the ones who are not entirely co-opted, the last time this happened, a rather angry german took offense and gave us all the gift of remembering the only wrong thing to have ever been perpetuated against any member of the human race.

Very good post once we decipher your examples.

[chanakyaa]

Thanksgiving came too early. Wonder what will Turkey do to its valentine's day cards received from all these years from Nay-To

Escalating sanctions could cripple Turkey’s economy

Lira collapses as Erdogan tells Turks: They have 'their dollars,' we have 'our god'

Turkey Tariffs: Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%.

[ramana]

Folks a very good source of US thinking on Geo-politics and Grand Strategy for us to read and get familiar:

MIT Press International Security Journal

Link to most downloaded or cited papers published in the above journal.


I would like us to develop ideas for India leveraging/based on some of these papers.

[ramana]

Thanksgiving came too early. Wonder what will Turkey do to its valentine's day cards received from all these years from Nay-To

Escalating sanctions could cripple Turkey’s economy

Lira collapses as Erdogan tells Turks: They have 'their dollars,' we have 'our god'

Turkey Tariffs: Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%.

Bloomberg guy was going on and on about Turkish Lira collapsing and Trump twisting the knife with his tweets on tariffs on Turkey.

I think the Trump strategy is to cut of the jihadis holding tank in Turkey by crushing the economy.

[satya]

Where is the liquidity ? Today's fx mkt moves in TRY & Euro were in near illiquid mkts . So i will rather wait till wednesday . Remember its august .
Big picture is US China trade dispute and turkey situation is a good place for US to show its strength. So turkey can anytime make amend and US
Is more than willing for a negotiated settlement .
JMTs

[ramana]

I was wonder where you have been?

[satya]

I was wonder where you have been?

Observer mode

[ramana]

So what does illiquid market mean? No paisa? Yet lira tanks?