This is a old article by Raman Guru
http://www.saag.org/papers5/paper466.html
GHAZNAVI: Chinese or North Korean or Stolen?
by B. Raman
GHAZNAVI: Chinese or North Korean or Stolen?
by B. Raman
The Pakistani military has benefited from the following sources in its efforts to acquire a missile capability:
* Largely Indigenous with some Chinese inputs: Mainly the HATF-1 (100 kms and 500 Kgs) and HATF-2 (300 Kms and 500 Kgs). These two were developed by the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) and plans for their serial production, at least of HATF-2, were reported to have been abandoned due to their unsatisfactory performance.
* Totally Chinese:HATF-3, which is believed to be the Chinese M-11 (300 kms and 500 kgs);and SHAHEEN I, which is believed to be the Chinese M-9 (700 kms and 500 Kgs). SHAHEEN -I is also sometimes called HATF-4.
* Totally North Korean: Ghauri-I, which is believed to be the North Korean Nodong (1300 kms and 500 to 750 kgs); and Ghauri--II ( claimed to be 2000 kms and 700 kgs), also North Korean Nodong. Ghauri-I is also sometimes called HATF-5.
* Of Uncertain origin: Shaheen--II (claimed 2000 plus kms and 1000 kgs). It was displayed in a military parade in March 2000 and described by Pakistani commentators as a road-mobile, two-stage missile. According to some reports, it is nothing but the Chinese DF-15; according to some other reports, it is actually the North Korean Taepodong. In the past, some Pakistani analysts had also referred to it as Ghaznavi.
* Stolen: Scuds of Soviet origin stolen from Kabul when the Najibullah Government fell in April 1992 and the Afghan Mujahideen captured power. Number and type not known.
The Pakistani military uses its claims regarding its missile holdings and firings as a psychological warfare (Psywar) weapon to reassure its own personnel and public about its nuclear delivery capability; to create concerns in the minds of the Indian public; and to create alarm in the international community about the so-called dangers of a nuclear confrontation if they do not pressurise India to settle the so-called Kashmir dispute to its satisfaction.
As part of this Psywar, different names are often used for the same missile and their performance characteristics are exaggerated. It has also been carrying out its periodic firings as part of this Psywar over its territory, without any firing over the sea in the hope of thereby being able to prevent foreign intelligence agencies, including those of India, from accurately monitoring their performance characteristics.
Commenting on this, in a study made after the firing of the Ghauri-I missile in April,1998, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) of the USA said: "Diverse public pronouncements by various Pakistani officials have tended to obscure rather than clarify the present status of Pakistan's missile programs. The confusion is greatly magnified by the diversity of nomenclature, as the number of missile names evidently greatly exceeds the number of actual missile types."
This tendency of Pakistan could be seen in the announcements emanating from Pakistan about the missile fired on the morning of May 26, 2002, too. Pakistani officials have described the missile fired as HATF-III with a range of 290 kms. However, Nisar Memon, Pakistan's Information Minister, has described it as the first in the GHAZNAVI series of missiles. When SHAHEEN-II was displayed in a military parade in March, 2000, Pakistani commentators had described that too as the first in the GHAZNAVI series of missiles.
The name GHAZNAVI was first used in public by Dr.A.Q.Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, after the firing of the GHAURI-I missile in April, 1998. He said that GHAZNAVI would have more advanced performance characteristics than GHAURI-I with a range of 2000 Kms. Western experts had deducted from his statement that Pakistan probably intended to buy the Taepodong from North Korea, where it was still under development, and rebaptise it as GHAZNAVI.
While we should take due note of Pakistani claims, even if exaggerated, it is at the same time necessary to draw the attention of the USA, Japan and other Western countries to the possibility/dangers of Pakistan utilising the increased cash-flow since September, 2001, to add to its nuclear-missile capability through additional clandestine purchases from China and North Korea.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail:
corde@vsnl.com )