Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Arima » 04 Jan 2019 18:51

very good. please track petrol bunk dealers and gas distribution dealers which on paper belong to sc/st but many are benami.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 04 Jan 2019 20:29

Govt studying Rhythu Bandhu scheme. It needs to be tweaked so that it benefits the real farmers more than landlords.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/telanga ... re-to-stay

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby suryag » 05 Jan 2019 11:23

okie somewhat uncharitable, stop being slots bhajpa and do something quick, you hardly have 50 days to go.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 06 Jan 2019 23:27

1 trillion rupee UPI transactions. Another side-effect of Demo.

https://www.fortuneindia.com/polemicist ... tem/102837

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vipins » 07 Jan 2019 23:20

suryag wrote:okie somewhat uncharitable, stop being slots bhajpa and do something quick, you hardly have 50 days to go.

cabinet-approves-10%-quota-for-upper-castes(Economic backward)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 07 Jan 2019 23:25

at current differential trajectory, we should be able to replace germany as the 4th largest economy in 2024.

UK due to brexit will drop below both france and india this year.

challenges are to create jobs and increase the technology intensitivity and value add of jobs ... we will never get rich just exporting shoes and handicrafts .... infact we will not get rich just by east asian style weak currency and exports unless 80% of uptake is from a huge domestic market.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 Jan 2019 00:47


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 Jan 2019 00:56

CSO has released the advance estimate on GDP for current fiscal year 2018-19 at 7.2 percent
Official CSO release (PDF)
Initial comments:
* Signfiicant growth in investment/GDP (GFCF) from 31.1% 2 fiscals ago, to 31.4% last fiscal to 32.9% in current fiscal
* Nominal GDP growth for current fiscal is 12.3%, from 10.0% previous fiscal
* Manufacturing (8.3%), electricity/gas/water/util (9.4%) and construction (8.9%) all registered strong growth, while mining and quarrying were barely above 0%
* Agriculture retained stable growth at 3.8% vs 3.4% last fiscal year.

Pretty solid numbers overall, especially the GFCF which indicates further growth in future.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 09 Jan 2019 10:30

==deleted=====
Last edited by Austin on 09 Jan 2019 22:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 09 Jan 2019 18:14

I think that 7.2% number this fiscal is going to be breached by a margin.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 09 Jan 2019 21:07


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 10 Jan 2019 03:30

India poised to become third-largest consumer market: World Economic Forum

India is poised to become the third-largest consumer market behind only the US and China; and consumer spending in India is expected to grow from $1.5 trillion at present to nearly $6 trillion by 2030, a World Economic Forum report said on Wednesday.

According to World Economic Forum (WEF), with an annual GDP growth rate of 7.5 per cent, India is currently the world's sixth-largest economy. By 2030, domestic private consumption, which accounts for 60 per cent of the country's GDP, is expected to develop into a $6-trillion growth opportunity.

"If realised, this would make India's consumer market the third-largest in the world, behind the US and China," the report said.

As per the report, growth in income will transform India from a "bottom of the pyramid economy" to a middle class-led one.

Future consumption growth will mainly come from rich and densely populated cities and the thousands of developed rural towns.

"India's top 40 cities will form a $1.5 trillion opportunity by 2030, many thousands of small urban towns will also drive an equally large spend in aggregate. In parallel, there will be an opportunity to unlock nearly $1.2 trillion of spend in developed rural areas by improving infrastructure and providing access to organised and online retail," WEF noted.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 10 Jan 2019 09:55

Suraj wrote:Currently at $10.5 trillion:
India’s GDP set to eclipse US’ by 2030: StanChart
Image


Nice , We are eclipsing US by comfortable margin and China is eclipsing US and India by the same.

Indonesia is a surprise so is Turkey and Egypt eclipsing Japan and Germany.

PPP is a better benchmark than Nominal GDP , if some Western Bankers decide 10 Rs is 1 USD then India GDP will be at 10 trillion today

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 10 Jan 2019 14:42

a sign of indonesian growth is Lion air ordering 100s of boeing 737 just as Indigo created a splash a decade ago with mega orders.

turkey and egypt is fraught with some risk given their 'systems'

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 10 Jan 2019 17:51


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 10 Jan 2019 18:14

Supratik wrote:GST further simplified.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 470876.cms


What does this mean exactly? Businesses with turnover under 40 lakh won't pay tax? And what is the logic behind the lower exemption for Northeastern states?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 10 Jan 2019 18:34

Exemption limit for composition scheme.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby M_Joshi » 11 Jan 2019 01:24

Bart S wrote:
Supratik wrote:GST further simplified.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 470876.cms


What does this mean exactly? Businesses with turnover under 40 lakh won't pay tax? And what is the logic behind the lower exemption for Northeastern states?


Supratik wrote:Exemption limit for composition scheme.


Exemption Limit for Composition scheme is Rs. 1.5 Cr. Businesses with turnover upto Rs. 40 lakh are exempted from GST billing & thus paying GST.

States in NE, HP & J&K have very limited revenue stream & thus want more businesses under GST purview to increase their revenues, thus the lower exemption limit in these states.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 11 Jan 2019 03:12

Everyone has to pay taxes, the exemption limit is for reduce paperwork. Insted of quarterly they will now file annual returns for GST like individual citizens file annual income tax.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 11 Jan 2019 04:21

Katare wrote:Everyone has to pay taxes, the exemption limit is for reduce paperwork. Insted of quarterly they will now file annual returns for GST like individual citizens file annual income tax.


That would be for companies that fall under the composition limit. It looks like those under the exemption limit might not have their GST data tracked in the first place? 40L is a significant volume of turnover that a lot of small-time traders and shopkeepers would be able to use to not pay taxes.

Or maybe there is an alternate way to ensure tax payment and I am reading this wrong.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 11 Jan 2019 05:23

A couple of days after CSO's advance estimate, World Bank estimates a tad higher 7.3% for current fiscal, and 7.5% next 2 years:
India’s GDP expected to grow at 7.3 pc in 2018-19, says World Bank
India’s GDP is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-19, and 7.5 per cent in the following two years, the World Bank has forecast, attributing it to an upswing in consumption and investment. The bank said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. China’s economic growth is projected to slow down to 6.2 each in 2019 and 2020 and 6 per cent in 2021, according to the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report released by the World Bank on Tuesday. In 2018, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 6.5 per cent as against India’s 7.3 per cent.

In 2017, China with 6.9 per cent growth was marginally ahead of India’s 6.7 per cent, mainly because the slowdown in the Indian economy due to demonetisation and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the report said. “India’s growth outlook is still robust. India is still the fastest growing major economy,” World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose told PTI in an interview. “With investment picking up and consumption remaining strong, we expect India to grow 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-2019, and average 7.5 per cent in 2019 and 2020. India registered quite a bit of pick up in doing business ranking. The growth momentum is there (in India),” Kose told PTI.

In India, the growth has accelerated, driven by an upswing in consumption, and investment growth has firmed as the effects of temporary factors wane, the World Bank said in its latest report. Domestic demand has strengthened as the benefits of structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) harmonisation and bank recapitalisation take effect.

“India’s growth accelerated to an estimated 7.3 per cent in FY2018/19 (April to March) as economic activity continued to recover with strong domestic demand. While investment continued to strengthen amid the GST harmonisation and a rebound of credit growth, consumption remained the major contributor to growth,” the World Bank said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 11 Jan 2019 06:41

Bart S wrote:
Katare wrote:Everyone has to pay taxes, the exemption limit is for reduce paperwork. Insted of quarterly they will now file annual returns for GST like individual citizens file annual income tax.


That would be for companies that fall under the composition limit. It looks like those under the exemption limit might not have their GST data tracked in the first place? 40L is a significant volume of turnover that a lot of small-time traders and shopkeepers would be able to use to not pay taxes.

Or maybe there is an alternate way to ensure tax payment and I am reading this wrong.

Businesses with turnover of Rs40L/year or lower would now file GST return annually but they'll still pay GST tax, like everyone else, at the end of the every quarter.

This change has no impact on revenue, the intent is to reduce paper work for small businesses.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2019 07:33

I thought annual revenue below some 20L does not pay gst at all ? What is the exempt limit? Do they still nee to file a return?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Jan 2019 10:10

Exception for filing return every quarter. Not in paying tax. Only paper work is reduced. That is all.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby praksam » 11 Jan 2019 10:27

Yagnasri wrote:Exception for filing return every quarter. Not in paying tax. Only paper work is reduced. That is all.

Yagnasri garu, I believe you're an Advocate. How do I get in contact with you? My email id is sang.at.brf @ Google chacha.
Please let me know.
Thanks

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Jan 2019 11:24

Paying once in quarter after collections has a huge impact on cash flow as opposed to every month.

Below 20Lakhs no tax. If you are not from the North East and selling Goods, no need to pay tax for Sales below 40 lakhs.

Service sector like earning commercial rent can opt for 6% Composition scheme for which no credit will be there.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Jan 2019 11:51

praksam wrote:
Yagnasri wrote:Exception for filing return every quarter. Not in paying tax. Only paper work is reduced. That is all.

Yagnasri garu, I believe you're an Advocate. How do I get in contact with you?
Thanks


I have sent mail to you from my personal id.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 11 Jan 2019 11:57

Yagnasri wrote:
praksam wrote:Yagnasri garu, I believe you're an Advocate. How do I get in contact with you?
Thanks


I have sent mail to you from my two personal chacha ids.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 11 Jan 2019 13:14

Yagnasri wrote:Exception for filing return every quarter. Not in paying tax. Only paper work is reduced. That is all.


My understanding is this is indeed the exemption from getting gout of GST. That is they do not have to pay GST at all. However the downside is they cannot then claim ICT too. Which means there is not undue gain in price competitiveness from not having to charge GST to customer on sticker price.

In reality a whole lot of businesses who can opt out of GST still go with GST:
https://www.livemint.com/Home-Page/LBd2 ... -SMEs.html
“Even with the current threshold limit, there are 10.93 lakh taxpayers with turnover below ₹20 lakh, who are paying GST,” said Jaitley. While eligibility was one aspect, the number of taxpayers actually opting for it might not be as high, he added.


https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... ion-limit/
The revenue loss on account of hike in exemption threshold to Rs 40 lakh is estimated to be around Rs 5,200 crore, assuming 50 per cent of the taxpayers will go out of GST, an official said. Other 50 per cent is still expected to stay within the indirect tax regime to take the supply chain benefits under GST.



AFAIK similar limit exists for need for Audit for business for filing IT return as well. Taken together with GST exemption, quite a few small businesses can reduce a whole lot of documentation work.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 11 Jan 2019 19:53


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby krisna » 11 Jan 2019 21:18

https://youtu.be/BijXrfBnEro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... ijXrfBnEro
(Unable to use youtube button :(( )

Prof Vaidyanathan retd from IIM Bangalore talks about economy and Dharma in a very humorous and witty way. it is a laugh riot and in simple terms. no big economy stuff or terms.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 11 Jan 2019 22:30

Singha wrote:I thought annual revenue below some 20L does not pay gst at all ? What is the exempt limit? Do they still nee to file a return?


The tax is based on what not who. GST Tax is charged to customers, it doesn’t come out of business income of the business. So if they are exempt from this tax than the benefit would go to customer.

Most bussiness that sell cigarate, alcohol, guns and luxury stuff will fall below under Rs 40 lakh/ year. Also indirect tax is universal tax and exemption is always on a commodity not on who sells it.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby prasannasimha » 14 Jan 2019 12:46

Manju, you are making posts promoting intracountry hate. I have deleted it. Repeat it again and it will result in a ban.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 14 Jan 2019 21:44

Central banks are always behind the curve *everywhere*.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/softer-wholesale-inflation-may-prompt-rbi-to-ease-money-policy-stance/articleshow/67524569.cms

NEW DELHI: India's wholesale inflation eased to an eight-month low in December, strengthening views among some economists the central bank could ease its monetary policy stance next month as the country faces a slowdown in manufacturing.


But media in general is always deaf and always idiots.

Annual growth in India's industrial output in November slumped to 0.5 per cent from an upwardly revised 8.4 per cent in October, on a slowdown in auto and garment manufacturing. The economic weakness is a problem for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has already been struggling to meet ambitious job creation targets, ahead of an election, which has to be held by May.


The above is tying up political wishes to vague statements on industrial growth. Is it that the industrial output growth is now 0.5% or is it that it is revised downward by 0.5% from 8.4% which was already revised upward?

And this was just few weeks ago:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/bq-explains-understanding-indias-inflation-landscape#gs.1YwwRpyr

India has frequently faced an inflation problem. At most times in the past, the problem has been high inflation. Now some experts fear that inflation in India is too low. But not everyone agrees. Inflation, by some measures, is low. But by others, it remains high.


Is it India's inflation problem or analysts are not able to figure out their right bottom half from their left bottom half?

The inflation metric that the MPC targets is consumer price inflation or retail inflation. Forty percent of this index is made up of food items. Fuel and power accounts for 6.8 percent of the index. Housing constitutes 10 percent, while clothing and footwear accounts for 6.5 percent of the overall index.

CPI inflation was at a seventeen-month low of 2.33 percent in November largely driven by fall in crude oil price and food disinflation or a contraction in food prices. Also, a break-up of inflation in urban and rural areas shows that rural inflation is running low at 1.7 percent in November, while urban inflation is higher at 3.12 percent.


The CPI constitution make sense! Since food is the single most item that impacts Indian consumer in big way it has a large component. At the same time food inflation in India generally was tied to supply side bottlenecks (infrastructure/markets/storage/hoarding/bad planning/agro-market manipulations) and not due to producer prices. This decoupling is happening now and hence the lower food inflation.

Now here is the dumb part of the analysts, when they look at western economies to drive their own constructs:

Core inflation strips out volatile food and energy prices because they cannot be influenced by monetary policy. Some economists also measure ‘core core inflation’ by further excluding items like transportation and, in some cases, gold and jewelry. Once those items are excluded, economists get a better sense of whether there is a demand-supply imbalance in the economy.


Fine, so from CPI if one strips out food and energy, then what remains is half-CPI Index.

Now here is the gaandu (idiotic) statement from Bloomberg quint:

If aggregate demand in the economy is rising at a pace much stronger than the increase in supply, core inflation will be high. This could justify an increase in rates even if headline inflation is low.


1. Aggregate demand of what?
2. And why increase rates just on half an index?

Here is the CPI:

In 2013, the consumer price index replaced the wholesale price index (WPI) as a main measure of inflation. In India, the most important category in the consumer price index is Food and beverages (45.86 percent of total weight), of which Cereals and products (9.67 percent), Milk and products (6.61 percent), Vegetables (6.04 percent), Prepared meals, snacks, sweets, etc. (5.55 percent), Meat and fish (3.61 percent), and Oils and fats (3.56 percent). Miscellaneous accounts for 28.32 percent, of which Transport and communication (8.59 percent), health (5.89 percent), and education (4.46 percent). Housing accounts for 10.07 percent; Fuel and light for 6.84 percent; Clothing and footwear for 6.53 percent; and Pan, tobacco and intoxicants for 2.38 percent.


So bloomberg quint is calling for increasing the interest rate based on inflation in Transport/Communication, Health, Education, Housing, Clothing & Footwear and Tobacco & Intoxicants (since 45% of food and 6.84% of fuel is taken out)!

However with ayushman bharat scheme, even Health costs are falling (there is a deflation going on there).

It will be interesting to see RBI holding rate on "increased inflation expectation in (urban) housing, education, household goods/services and Tobacco & Intoxicants".

And the same author of above article comes with:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/cpi-inflation-falls-to-an-18-month-low#gs.YRV8iGNU

CPI food price index fell 2.51 percent in December over last year, after contracting 2.61 percent in November. This is the third consecutive month of negative inflation in this category.
Fuel and light inflation fell to 4.54 percent, down from 7.39 percent in November.
Housing inflation stood at 5.32 percent compared to 5.99 percent in November.
Clothing and footwear inflation was at 3.52 percent compared with 3.53 percent in November 2018.
Inflation in the households goods and services segment stood at 6.38 percent, compared with 5.80 percent in November 2018.
Inflation in the transport and communication segment came in at 4.30 percent, lower than 6.09 percent in November 2018.


(Note: Health and Education number is not given above)

Benign housing inflation contributes to general well being of owners and leads to more investments in the housing sector. Household goods and services can be a seasonal bleep.

Added later (from above news item):

Growth-Inflation Variance
The rise in core CPI appears to be at odds with economic growth, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic adviser at State Bank of India.He said that the rise in core CPI inflation is led by growth in health and education, which rose 9 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively. “Both these items have seen higher growth in rural areas at a time when rural demand is collapsing.

The recent GDP advance estimates indicate demand moderating in the second half of FY19, reflecting in automobile sales and consumption of petroleum products. The estimates also indicate a moderation in private and government expenditure growth.


I think people want to hear words like "demand is collapsing" and shiver in their dhoti. Demand of what? is collapsing in rural India? Housing? Clothing & Footwear? But spending behind Health and Education rose dramatically in India so much that it is the only major component (@10% of CPI) showing @9% inflation growth.

I think spending behind health and education is a good thing. It indicates that people are able to spend behind the next big tickets (education and health) after feeding & clothing & housing themselves.

Given that India's growth expectations is @7-7.5% y-o-y next year, question should be asked -> "Is India entering goldilocks zone?" (low inflation high growth).

Added later -> I might have confused WPI/CPI in the above post.

Wholesale Price Index constituency

In India, the wholesale price index (WPI) is the main measure of inflation. The WPI measures the price of a representative basket of wholesale goods. In India, wholesale price index is divided into three groups: Fuel and Power (13.2 percent), Primary Articles (22.6 percent of total weight) and Manufactured Products (54.2 percent). Food Articles from the Primary Articles Group account for 15.2 percent of the total weight. The most important components of the Manufactured Products Group are Basic Metals (9.7 percent of total weight); Food products (9.1 percent); Chemicals and Chemical products (6.5 percent) and Textiles (4.9 percent). .


The entire economic times article linked above is *nonsense* and meant to be a political hit job to confuse the data purposely.

1. RBI looks at CPI and not WPI., so my post stands.

2. WPI breakdown:

Wholesale prices in India rose by 3.8 percent year-on-year in December 2018, slowing from a 4.64 percent gain in the prior month and below than market estimates of 4.42 percent. It was the lowest wholesale inflation since April, as cost increased at a softer pace for fuel and manufactured products while prices of food declined further.

In December, cost went up at a softer pace for fuel & power (8.38 percent vs 16.28 percent in November) and manufactured products (3.59 percent vs 4.21 percent), amid slowing prices of basic metals (9.33 percent vs 12.44 percent), food products (0.24 percent vs 0.7 percent), chemical & chemical products (6.01 percent vs 7.47 percent) and textiles (5.30 percent vs 5.49 percent).

Meanwhile, prices of primary articles rose faster (2.28 percent vs 0.88 percent in a month earlier), including cereals (7.59 percent vs 7.23 percent), wheat (9.61 percent vs 9.18 percent) and minerals (14.89 percent vs 6.97 percent). Also, cost fell less for food articles (-0.07 percent vs -3.31 percent) and vegetables (-17.55 percent vs 26.98 percent) (volatile).

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices decreased by 1.40 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in November.
Last edited by disha on 15 Jan 2019 03:08, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 14 Jan 2019 22:57

Katare wrote:
Singha wrote:I thought annual revenue below some 20L does not pay gst at all ? What is the exempt limit? Do they still nee to file a return?


The tax is based on what not who. GST Tax is charged to customers, it doesn’t come out of business income of the business. So if they are exempt from this tax than the benefit would go to customer.

Most bussiness that sell cigarate, alcohol, guns and luxury stuff will fall below under Rs 40 lakh/ year. Also indirect tax is universal tax and exemption is always on a commodity not on who sells it.


Obviously this is applicable for the value addition by the particular business whether in form of goods or service.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 16 Jan 2019 23:05

Infosys to set-up next-gen IT filing system for processing IT returns in one day.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/te ... 559282.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 16 Jan 2019 23:06

Large borrowers fall in line RBI one-day default norm.

https://www.livemint.com/Industry/4qEIq ... -norm.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 17 Jan 2019 02:01

Supratik wrote:Infosys to set-up next-gen IT filing system for processing IT returns in one day.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/te ... 559282.cms


and this is the same lot which messed up on the GST software??

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vikas » 17 Jan 2019 12:26

chetak wrote:
Supratik wrote:Infosys to set-up next-gen IT filing system for processing IT returns in one day.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/te ... 559282.cms


and this is the same lot which messed up on the GST software??


They are still one of the best IT shops in the country alongside TCS,WIPRO and HCLT. Anyways like everyone else, they too will learn implementation of projects of gigantic size with least disruptions.


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