Pulwama Attack

parshuram
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby parshuram » 15 Feb 2019 21:43

Unless Pakistani Punjabi Heartland is hit , Pakistan does not care no matter how many terrorists are killed , no matter how many camps are destroyed . No matter how much crunch is their in their Economy . These camps network is well fed and so are their masters (Pakistani Army ). Hit Sargodha AF Base to start with. If it escalated so be it

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby chandrasekaran » 15 Feb 2019 21:46

ramana wrote:
chandrasekaran wrote:Not to point fingers but reading this made my blood boil...

https://mobile.twitter.com/Swamy39/stat ... 7356107776



SuSwamy is fine own to talk.
Have we forgotten his role in pulling down ABV govt while Kargil was going on?
He has a big battle axe to grind against Modi govt.
he is biggest NOTA enabler.
Don't fall for his natak.


Sir

I don't care for his Natak or anything. This has been pointed to by others as well btw.

ramana
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ramana » 15 Feb 2019 21:48

What are you replying to me for and wasting your time?

Two x-posts...
Peregrine wrote:X Posted on the Terroristan Thread

MFN status to Pakistan revoked after Pulwama attack: What it means

NEW DELHI: India on Friday withdrew the 'most-favoured nation' or MFN status to Pakistan after a terror attack which took lives of at least 38 CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) personnel in Jammu and Kashmir.

This is one of the deadliest terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir when a suicide bomber rammed a vehicle carrying over 100 kg of explosives into their bus in Pulwama district.

The move to remove MFN status would enable India to increase customs duty on goods coming from the neighbouring country.

When was it given to Pakistan:

India granted the MFN status to Pakistan way back in in 1996, but the neighbouring country has not yet reciprocated.

The MFN status was accorded under WTO's General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). Both India and Pakistan are signatories to this; and are members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), which means they have to treat each other and the other WTO member countries as favoured trading partners in terms of imposing customs duties on goods.

What happens when India removes MFN status:

Removal of this status means India can now enhance customs duties to any level on goods coming from Pakistan, a trade expert said.

Last year in November, a senior aide to Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan had said that the country has "no immediate plans" to grant MFN status to India. Pakistan allows only 137 products to be exported from India through the Wagah border land route.

Total India-Pakistan trade has increased marginally to $2.41 billion in 2017-18 as against $2.27 billion in 2016-17. India imported goods worth $488.5 million in 2017-18 and exported goods worth $1.92 billion in that fiscal.

Under MFN pact, a WTO member country is obliged to treat the other trading nation in a non-discriminatory manner, especially with regard to customs duty and other levies.

What India imports and exports:

India mainly exports cotton, dyes, chemicals, vegetables and iron and steel; while it imports fruits, cement, leather and spices.

For instance, when the export of materials like cotton and chemicals from India will stop, it will push up production cost for the mentioned Pakistani industries.

The step was announced after a meeting of the cabinet committee on security (CCS), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to discuss the security scenario in J&K in the wake of the terror attack.

Pros of MFN:

MFN status is helpful for the developing nations. The countries with the status have broader access to a market for trade goods, reduced cost of export items owing to highly reduced tariffs and trade barriers.

It also reduces the bureaucratic hurdles and varied kinds of other tariffs for imports. It then increases demands for the goods and giving a boost to the economy and export sector.

Cheers Image


and

Sachin wrote:On the terrorist attack. Is CRPF convoy movement SOP different from that of IA? In IA the SOP seems to NOT allow any civilian vehicle to get in between a convoy. This is precisely to thwart attack of the types which happened yesterday. My understanding is that there were nearly 200 CRPF personnel going in the convoy, and the maximum casualties were from a single bus (which most likely would have been close to the suicide bomber). And looks like this convoy had 2457 men travelling in it. That seems to be a really large number, and was really a "sitting duck".

Supratik wrote:Retaliation speed will depend on if they have a plan ready for such actions post surgical strike. I don't think elections will come in the way of national security which the govt is duty bound to follow till the last day it is in power.

Please note that the target this time was CRPF, who generally will NOT have any cross border raiding skills. They are a slightly better armed police force, that is all. So what kind of retaliation is possible, when & how needs to be decided by GoI in more detail and perhaps would take time. To be frank, I am expecting a retaliation especially because BJP so far has been seen as pro-Defence Forces & CPOs and strong against terrorism.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Philip » 15 Feb 2019 21:50

Some joker said that demonitisation had " defeated" terrorism..Almost every day there are incidents in J&K.
Our combined political- babu elite are cowards when it comes to Pak.Giving them a " befitting reply", is a stock reply, that must have the Pakis quaking in their boots with laughter.

We made such a hulla-baloo of the sole "surgical strike".
What happened thereafter? Bugger all.China gives our citizens stapled visas for Ar.Pradesh and J& K and the MEA eunuchs simply swallow the insult. What diplomatic measures, punishing Pak havd been effected by either the UPA or NDA? F all. Pathetically Jet Li today said that the "most favoured nation" trade status for Pak (!) is now being withdrawn.So we STILL are willing to trade with those effing pigs! Shameful.

The least diplomatic measures that should be taken are the foll:
1.Expulsion of the Paki ambassador and the bulk of his stinking retinue.
2.Downgrading dpl. status to that of only Consular level with a handful of staff.
3.All overflights of Paki aircraft over India banned, along with a ban on any civil airliner overflying Ondian territory starting or destined for Paki airports.It will teach the intl. community that we mean business.
4.Strict boycott of international MNCs doing biz with Pak. especially in the defence industry.
5.A total ban on any intervisitation of citizens.No Pakis to pollute Indian soil, no Indians to set foot in that pestilential cesspool.
6.Stopping of all sporting links, especially " Crookit", which is controlled by the D- mafia based in Pak.
7.Abrogating the treaty on river waters.No water as long az cross-border terrorism exists.
9.Total support for separatist movements in Pak.Tge aim- the total dismemberment of Pak.We need another Mrs.G. or tge current regime to do the biz.Baluchi and Sindhi freedom fighters to be given max. eco., dpl. or mil. support.
10.Covert anti- Pak action to be undertaken worldwide.
11.Overt mil. action.This can be detailed elsewhere.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby venug » 15 Feb 2019 21:56

India mainly exports cotton, dyes, chemicals, vegetables and iron and steel; while it imports fruits, cement, leather and spices.


So troubling to imagine one builds their homes with cement imported from TSP, might have been manufactured in a pak fauj company. Also funding terror against us.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Karthik S » 15 Feb 2019 21:59

venug wrote:
India mainly exports cotton, dyes, chemicals, vegetables and iron and steel; while it imports fruits, cement, leather and spices.


So troubling to imagine one builds their homes with cement imported from TSP, might have been manufactured in a pak fauj company. Also funding terror against us.


WTF?? we are 2nd largest producers of steel, but import cement from pakis? And fruits and spices ??? This seems like someone really want to help pakis by doing this business.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ashthor » 15 Feb 2019 22:00

Vayu Shakti should be shifted to the land of the pigs

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 22:06

venug wrote:
India mainly exports cotton, dyes, chemicals, vegetables and iron and steel; while it imports fruits, cement, leather and spices.


So troubling to imagine one builds their homes with cement imported from TSP, might have been manufactured in a pak fauj company. Also funding terror against us.

dont get hyper. We need some contact to get our men and money over there.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Raveen » 15 Feb 2019 22:11

ramana wrote:Our forum software is quite outdated as we cant easily share stuff from SM like Twitter or FB. screenshots.
A lot is going on and we are stuck in bulletin board mode.


How do we fix that?

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Deans » 15 Feb 2019 22:13

There is a lot that can be done immediately, to hit Pakistani trade - MFN is only symbolic and just a first step.
I've written a paper on the subject for a Govt think tank.

1. Ban all exports to Pak. Over 50% of Pak exports are cotton textiles, some of it is sustained by raw cotton exported from India.
2. No MFN for any country supporting terrorism - that includes failure to support a ban on UN approved terror groups. (e.g. China). Impose a 10% additional import duty a security tax on such countries.
3. Increase the export incentive on cotton textiles and basmati rice by just 2% Its enough to cripple Pakistan's exports (these are their 2 biggest exports) and also boost our farmer's income.
4. Dump medicine (spurious) and other products into Afghanistan from where they find their way to Pak. (I used to handle business through that route some 20 years ago).

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Deans » 15 Feb 2019 22:14

Karthik S wrote:
venug wrote:
So troubling to imagine one builds their homes with cement imported from TSP, might have been manufactured in a pak fauj company. Also funding terror against us.


WTF?? we are 2nd largest producers of steel, but import cement from pakis? And fruits and spices ??? This seems like someone really want to help pakis by doing this business.


Imports are negligible, mostly fruit and spices into Punjab when local prices are high. Our exports to Pak are a bigger worry, See my other post.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Deans » 15 Feb 2019 22:19

We can't abrogate / amend article 370, without 2/3rd majority of the J&K assembly endorsing it. However, there is no reason why the Govt cannot submit an opinion to the SC that article 35A is discriminatory, legally untenable and should be scrapped. My sense is that SC will lean in this direction, but wants the Govt to clarify its stand first.

While outsiders can't buy land in Kashmir, there is no reason why land cannot be leased (say for 99 years) to outsiders (to resettle ex servicemen),
by the govt (which is now represented by the Governor). To overcome a SC challenge, get Kashmiri Pandit's to be the owners. Lease more land whenever Kashmiris misbehave.
Last edited by Deans on 15 Feb 2019 22:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby salaam » 15 Feb 2019 22:19

Modi’s speech after Pulwama. In Hindi with English subtitles. 9 min.

https://twitter.com/meaindia/status/109 ... 95424?s=21

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby vinod » 15 Feb 2019 22:21

Deans wrote:There is a lot that can be done immediately, to hit Pakistani trade - MFN is only symbolic and just a first step.
I've written a paper on the subject for a Govt think tank.

1. Ban all exports to Pak. Over 50% of Pak exports are cotton textiles, some of it is sustained by raw cotton exported from India.
2. No MFN for any country supporting terrorism - that includes failure to support a ban on UN approved terror groups. (e.g. China). Impose a 10% additional import duty a security tax on such countries.
3. Increase the export incentive on cotton textiles and basmati rice by just 2% Its enough to cripple Pakistan's exports (these are their 2 biggest exports) and also boost our farmer's income.
4. Dump medicine (spurious) and other products into Afghanistan from where they find their way to Pak. (I used to handle business through that route some 20 years ago).



We can impose sanctions on companies which procure from Pakistan! They have to give certification that no terrorist countries have been used to procure the materials. They can sell stuff there but not buy. This will cover most of the western\chinese companies which procure from Pakistan and sometimes sell in India. India is a huge market and they will not risk it.


International trade law experts can discuss how we stand from the legal view point.
Last edited by vinod on 15 Feb 2019 22:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 22:21

Deans wrote:There is a lot that can be done immediately, to hit Pakistani trade - MFN is only symbolic and just a first step.
I've written a paper on the subject for a Govt think tank.

1. Ban all exports to Pak. Over 50% of Pak exports are cotton textiles, some of it is sustained by raw cotton exported from India.
2. No MFN for any country supporting terrorism - that includes failure to support a ban on UN approved terror groups. (e.g. China). Impose a 10% additional import duty a security tax on such countries.
3. Increase the export incentive on cotton textiles and basmati rice by just 2% Its enough to cripple Pakistan's exports (these are their 2 biggest exports) and also boost our farmer's income.
4. Dump medicine (spurious) and other products into Afghanistan from where they find their way to Pak. (I used to handle business through that route some 20 years ago).

can you repost your paper here again. However, I think now is the time for kinetic options

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby sudeepj » 15 Feb 2019 22:25

khan wrote:It has been a few years gentle Rakshaks, I wish it had been under better circumstances.

I am not sure if people have seen "The Fog of War - Eleven lessons from the life of Robert S McNamara", it is available on YouTube, I highly recommend every strategically minded Rakshak watch it.

One of the lessons is
Lesson #5: Proportionality should be a guideline in war


Firstly, make no mistake, there is a war going on and there has been one going on for 70 years.

Coming back to proportionality, if the acceptable proportion in 10 to 1, we are looking at something like 500 Pakistani casualties. This is bigger than airstrikes and covert action. My guess would be we are looking at ground intrusions (possibly with air support) to "sanitize" some Pakistanis.


I have watched McNamara's interview many times. I think he is plain wrong when it comes to the concept of proportionality, and I think Colin Powell had it right with disproportionate response.

Proportional response means if I pinch your wifes bottom, you pinch mine. (quote is stolen from someone, I dont recall who..)

If your response is predictable and proportional, an implacable, existential enemy can always decide to take a calculated risk. It can be to play to a domestic audience, to provide support to an insurgency, or just to keep the conflict alive.

The only way to deter such an enemy, who thrives on never ending conflict is a disproportionate, unpredictable, even seemingly irrational response. With that, at least, these constant pin-pricks will go away and the two nations can focus internally on building their societies in the direction they want to go in. I have no doubt that Pakis will still turn out to be jihadis.. but that will be an inward focused thing.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby IndraD » 15 Feb 2019 22:25

Pulwama suicide attack: An extremely dangerous development

this is a fantastic article full of nuggets https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... 48204/?amp

Normally, the more the number of people the greater the chance of the attack being pre-empted because of information being leaked inadvertently. That this hasn’t happened means a major intelligence failure, but also that the cell responsible for the attack is very professional and proficient in carrying out its grisly task.



The big question is whether the first salvo has been fired in what could be the beginning of a new phase of terrorism in Kashmir in which suicide bombings becomes the new normal. This is something that will only become clear over time. What is surprising, however, is not that such a bombing has taken place but that it has taken so long for such an attack to happen.


There is increasing evidence that there is social sanction for youth sacrificing themselves for the ‘cause’ (or what a turncoat former civil servant euphemistically calls, the ‘sentiment’), including from families, especially mothers. There are parents who encourage their kids to die because they think their kids ‘martyrdom’ will win a place in heaven for them.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Deans » 15 Feb 2019 22:28

ArjunPandit wrote:
Deans wrote:There is a lot that can be done immediately, to hit Pakistani trade - MFN is only symbolic and just a first step.
I've written a paper on the subject for a Govt think tank.

1. Ban all exports to Pak. Over 50% of Pak exports are cotton textiles, some of it is sustained by raw cotton exported from India.
2. No MFN for any country supporting terrorism - that includes failure to support a ban on UN approved terror groups. (e.g. China). Impose a 10% additional import duty a security tax on such countries.
3. Increase the export incentive on cotton textiles and basmati rice by just 2% Its enough to cripple Pakistan's exports (these are their 2 biggest exports) and also boost our farmer's income.
4. Dump medicine (spurious) and other products into Afghanistan from where they find their way to Pak. (I used to handle business through that route some 20 years ago).

can you repost your paper here again. However, I think now is the time for kinetic options


I've been advised to keep the full paper confidential - it was written in 2016 and seen by some of our leading strategists, The 2 page sanatised summary was in swarajya : https://swarajyamag.com/world/a-new-non-diplomatic-approach-for-pakistan

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 22:33

^^thx, this article needs to included as curricullum of our school books

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Singha » 15 Feb 2019 22:34

I am pretty shocked to know we are not even fully exploiting the provisions of the IWT!!

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Deans » 15 Feb 2019 22:35

I had also written an article on trade with China for the upcoming edition Indian military review, which I think is relevant, as we need to send a signal to China as much as to Pak. Article not for circulation, as it is copyright.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
China’s goal is to be the world’s pre-eminent power, replacing the US. To that end China’s GDP – in purchasing power parity terms, is set to overtake the US in 2021. China’s goal which was earlier implied and understated, been formally stated and more aggressively acted upon by Premier Xi.
A key weapon in China’s Geo political strategy is the use of its economic power. This is done to do get concessions through economic coercion, undermine a country’s economy (making it more influenced by China’s policies), or affect defence spending of a rival, though a small effort of its own.

For e.g. a relatively small amount of aid & weapons to North Korea (or Pakistan) is enough for those countries to threaten their neighbours and force them into a higher military spend that might otherwise be spent elsewhere. China’s border policy towards India, is in my view, part of this strategy wherein small but regular intrusions across the LAC, remind us of the ghosts of 1962 and force us to deploy a large force on the LAC (opposite a far smaller Chinese force across the LAC in Tibet) as a deterrent. Coupled with this, is China’s effort to undermine the India’s economy through its economic policies of the last decade.

The trade deficit between India and China at $ 63 billion in 2017-8, is the 2nd highest that any country has with another – only the US, with its much larger economy has a bigger trade deficit (also with China). While India imported goods worth $ 79 billion from China, China imported only $ 16 billion from India, in 2017-18. Not only is the absolute size of the trade deficit worrying, its composition and growth has even more serious implications for the Indian economy.
In 2003-4, India’s trade deficit with China was just US$ 1 billion. This increased to US$ 16 billion in 2007-8 and US $35 billion in 2013-4 (when the current Govt. took over). Despite all the talk around `Make in India’ this deficit has almost doubled the last 3 years, to reach US$ 63 billion. Incredibly, in the year, when we had the Doklam crisis, the trade deficit increased by another $ 11 billion!
While China’s exports to India have been steadily growing, ours have stagnated. Our exports to China were actually higher in 2011-12. The problem is India’s exports to China are mostly raw materials like Diamonds, Copper & Zinc, Cotton Yarn etc. These commodities have very small margins and are subject to global prices, over which India has little control. Even when India discusses reducing the trade deficit, the items India seeks to export are agricultural commodities like sugar and grapes, which have a finite supply, because of which any change in export volumes (which China can influence), can have a sudden impact on either consumer prices or farmer incomes in India.
In contrast, China exports manufactured goods to India. It has been estimated (and stated by Govt.) that the price subsidy given to Chinese manufacturers is about 17% on average making them cheaper than Indian products. Over time, this has led to Indian companies preferring to trade (buy from China) instead of manufacture and a lot of `manufacturing’ that is done is really assembling of Chinese components. While we have 100+ units ‘manufacturing’ cell phones, the local value addition is under 6%.

By 2020, India’s net imports of electronics could surpass that of Oil. Half these imports come from China. While in theory, Chinese subsidies for exports mean lower prices for the Indian consumer (including lower cost of power due to for e.g. low priced Solar panels) China is known to sharply increase prices once they have established market dominance and ensured the importing country loses the capability to manufacture locally. Pharma is an example. A staggering 70%-80% of Drug intermediates & API’s (Active pharmaceutical ingredients) are imported from China. This China has the ability to destroy our export led pharma industry by simply stopping supply or increasing prices of ingredients. The capacity utilisation of Indian API units is barely 40% - the lowest in the world. India by contrast, cannot export in any significant quantity to China because of non-tariff barriers (drug approvals in China take 5-7 years).
We are repeating the mistake the US has made over decades when they preferred cheap consumer products from China at the cost of undermining their manufacturing base. The US dependence on China is what makes the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration so difficult and unpopular.
When faced with increasing instances of dumping of Chinese goods, India has responded with anti-dumping duties and increased tariffs. However, that has a limited impact. A lot of Chinese imports (to non govt. importers) are under-invoiced. The difference between real and declared value is remitted to China, from overseas accounts by the Indian importer (getting rid of his black money), while duties are paid on the reduced price declared in the invoice.

India has duty free arrangements with neighbours like Si Lanka. Here China’s use of the Hampantota free trade zone (given to China when Sri Lanka could not pay off Chinese debt) would mean that Chinese manufactured goods can reach India duty free (because they are notionally made in Sri Lanka). An estimated 40-50% of the textiles we import duty free from Bangladesh, have fabric of Chinese origin. It is of little comfort to us that Pakistan will face the same problem with the Gwadar free trade zone developed by the Chinese (with Pakistani money, to undermine Pakistani exports).

These are recent findings of the Parliamentary standing committee for commerce. To quote them “The committee finds it unfortunate that in the name of `ease of doing business’, we are more than willing to give market access to China, while China is smartly protecting its Industry from Indian competition”. In the case of solar power, the committee found that 2 lac jobs had been lost due to cheap Chinese imports. In the last 5 years, 40% of Indian companies making toys have shut.
To put in perspective the value of the trade deficit at US$ 63 billion – It is more than the total value of Chinese investments in Pakistan under the CPEC and the value of armaments supplied by China to Pakistan. Perversely, Indians pay for Pakistan’s development & arms, by buying Chinese goods in increasing quantities, while the Indian manufacturing sector is starved of orders for a significant part of this business. The annual trade deficit with China is also more than our defence expenditure of $ 52 billion and 7 times more than our value of imported weapons.

The economic threat from China goes beyond the trade deficit. Under-invoicing reduces import duties and launder black money held abroad. Misdeclaration and smuggling brings banned goods to India, while many consumer products fail Indian safety standards.
Recently 38 Chinese apps have been classified by the Ministry of Defence as dangerous, as they pose the risk of cyberattacks against India. While Western countries are placing restrictions on Chinese telecom firm Huawei (linked to the PLA) as it represents a significant espionage risk, India has asked them be part of our 5G network.
Data of millions of Indian consumers using Chinese owner PayTM or Chinese cellphones (4 of the top 5 brands in India), are, at the time of writing this, stored in China. This can potentially cause what intelligence agencies term – Addiction, Surveillance & Manipulation by an unfriendly foreign power. Coupled with this, is China using its increasing clout in international organisations to hurt India’s interests. For e.g. denying India admission to the Nuclear Suppliers group, or shielding terrorist Masood Azhar. Given how much China gains from the Indian market, India needs to realise that trade can be a strong weapon against China and one not wielded so far.

Import tariffs can be raised for items imported almost entirely from China (or Hong Kong, its proxy)
India has room to do this under its WTO obligations and it will not be seen as anti-China, since in theory all countries exporting that item to India are affected. On items where it is believed China is dumping goods below price, India should not just be more aggressive in imposing anti-dumping duties, but set a floor price below which an item cannot be invoiced at. This will prevent under-invoicing and loss of customs revenue.
Chinese goods need to conform to Indian standards. Such regulations – given the ways of our bureaucracy, can be effective non-tariff barriers. Imports from countries where there is no prior history of poor quality can be spared this process (so that imports from other major trading partner
remain smooth). Similar restrictions can be placed on granting of long term visas.

A stronger signal can be sent by banning companies that work with supporters of terrorism (i.e. Pakistan Govt. or companies where the Pak govt. or its agencies e.g. Fauji foundation, have a shareholding), from doing business in India. Exceptions can be made for `friendly countries’ (as the US did for Iranian Oil imports). Where a ban is not possible e.g. a Chinese airline operating in both countries, a `security tax’(as a percentage of turnover) can be imposed.
Just a 10% increased import duty on Chinese products and imposing a floor price on some categories of import, can yield around Rs. 50,000 crore annually in duties. More realistically, it might yield a Rs 25,000 crore duty increase (enough to give 10 million people work for 100 days under MGNREGA) and a $ 35 billion reduction in the value of Chinese imports. If half of that reduction results in increased manufacturing in India, it could, given our labour productivity, provide another 2.5 million factory jobs.
The impact of a $35 billion reduction in manufacturing may not be large given the size of the Chinese economy, but it could well have a domino effect, with more countries imposing protective measures against Chinese imports (as the US has done), or refusing to repay costly Chinese loans, or continue unviable projects, under China’s OBOR initiative - which small countries like Sri Lanka, Malaysia and the Maldives are now doing. Cumulatively, the financial impact might well be a tipping point that causes the highly leveraged Chinese economy to snap. The Chinese markets fell 25% in 2018, influenced by US tariffs on Chinese imports. China may well conclude for e.g. that its support for terrorist groups in Pakistan is not worth reduced or costlier access to the huge Indian market
The way the Chinese use trade to undermine our national security is, I believe, inadequately understood by our policy makers.
Last edited by Deans on 15 Feb 2019 22:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby bharotshontan » 15 Feb 2019 22:35

On topic of proportional/disproportional response, this is a Raktabeej scenario we're dealing with...Maa Kali ultimately vanquished by not dealing with each beej but stretched her tongue around entire universe to prevent the beej from landing and spawning another asura.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 22:37

I agree with the point on disproportionate response. one of the things we can do in short term is to start leveraging our advantage in heavy artillery. We can and should target their population centers to precipitate an internal crisis. Remember their general populace funds jihadis through mosque funds and itr/carpet sales. If not anything else some of the money will go in burying their dead or their treatment in hospitals.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Singha » 15 Feb 2019 22:48

we need to make some sacrifices for greater good. chinese electronics is #1 esp smartphone imports both whole and ckd.
sure even apple and samsung may make in china, but the net accretion to cheen economy is a lot less than cheeni brands. and we can always invite all the others to MII once the cheens are kicked out on national security grounds.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby khan » 15 Feb 2019 22:48

sudeepj wrote:
khan wrote:It has been a few years gentle Rakshaks, I wish it had been under better circumstances.

I am not sure if people have seen "The Fog of War - Eleven lessons from the life of Robert S McNamara", it is available on YouTube, I highly recommend every strategically minded Rakshak watch it.

One of the lessons is

Firstly, make no mistake, there is a war going on and there has been one going on for 70 years.

Coming back to proportionality, if the acceptable proportion in 10 to 1, we are looking at something like 500 Pakistani casualties. This is bigger than airstrikes and covert action. My guess would be we are looking at ground intrusions (possibly with air support) to "sanitize" some Pakistanis.


I have watched McNamara's interview many times. I think he is plain wrong when it comes to the concept of proportionality, and I think Colin Powell had it right with disproportionate response.

Proportional response means if I pinch your wifes bottom, you pinch mine. (quote is stolen from someone, I dont recall who..)

If your response is predictable and proportional, an implacable, existential enemy can always decide to take a calculated risk. It can be to play to a domestic audience, to provide support to an insurgency, or just to keep the conflict alive.

The only way to deter such an enemy, who thrives on never ending conflict is a disproportionate, unpredictable, even seemingly irrational response. With that, at least, these constant pin-pricks will go away and the two nations can focus internally on building their societies in the direction they want to go in. I have no doubt that Pakis will still turn out to be jihadis.. but that will be an inward focused thing.


That makes sense.

chetak
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby chetak » 15 Feb 2019 22:53

this is the actual reason and motivation for the growing militancy in cashmere.

It happens nowhere else in the world and is/has been permitted by the various GoI so far.

stop this.

Even slain foreign militants are accorded this "honor", why?? what purpose does it serve??

watch the video.



https://twitter.com/i/status/1096406276567777280

ramana
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ramana » 15 Feb 2019 22:55

ArjunPandit wrote:I agree with the point on disproportionate response. one of the things we can do in short term is to start leveraging our advantage in heavy artillery. We can and should target their population centers to precipitate an internal crisis. Remember their general populace funds jihadis through mosque funds and itr/carpet sales. If not anything else some of the money will go in burying their dead or their treatment in hospitals.


Hello please no cruel jokes on us long suffering members.

It was with great "to do" that IA accepted the OFB and M777 guns.
Test the hell to make them explode and blame manufacturers.
Succeeded to that even with an imported gun M777 and no contrition.
"Shell exited in multiple pieces" wont acknowledge it blew up in barrel.
Two gun were there for firing table development.
Tested one to death and kept the other pristine.


And these are in marginal numbers.
Self -denuding mode.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Deans » 15 Feb 2019 22:55

ArjunPandit wrote:I agree with the point on disproportionate response. one of the things we can do in short term is to start leveraging our advantage in heavy artillery. We can and should target their population centers to precipitate an internal crisis. Remember their general populace funds jihadis through mosque funds and itr/carpet sales. If not anything else some of the money will go in burying their dead or their treatment in hospitals.


I think we will have an advantage in heavy artillery if we move one of our artillery divisions to the LOC and keep it there. There are more villages in POK (and the capital Muzaffarabad) within artillery range, than is is case with our population centers east of the LOC. In a battle of attrition across thw LOC, Pakistan loses more. Our own civilian casualties will include a significant proportion whose loyalty to India is suspect.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby sudeepj » 15 Feb 2019 22:55

rohan1424 wrote:What is Pakistan's game plan here ? We have seen two brutal attacks on Indian and Iranian Paramilitary forces .

With its economy in shambles what are they gaining by escalating the situation and forcing India to react ? Is there a China angle ?


The Pakistani model is 'never ending conflict' with India. The principle of 'defending the ideological frontiers of Pakistan', that the Pakistani Army has arrogated to itself, implies that there can never be a stable peace with India. To make peace would mean that trade, cultural exchanges, sports etc. will naturally follow and in those areas, India is so dominant that it would gradually erode 'Pakistaniyat/the idea of Pakistan', and that is intolerable to Pakistani elite.

Therefore, Pakistan must be in a state of never ending conflict with India. If so, why not take advantage of any 'strategic opening' they might espy? In fact, every time Pakis (in their own mind) had seen a strategic opening, they have taken it. (65 post CENTO/SEATO pacts, Kashmir/Punjab when Rus invaded Afghanistan, Kargil after the tests, Parliament attacks after 9/11, and now as the Afghan war is winding down and Americans preparing to surrender.)

One must give the devil his due, they are bold, audacious planners.

The strategic opening is provided by two major events in faraway lands:

1. The Trumpanzee has decided to surrender in Afghanistan to ensure his 2020 election.
2. The defeat of ISIS, and the emergence of Iran as a regional super power. The Israeli lobby sees Iran as the major threat in the middle east, and they are not completely wrong. Left to its own devices, Iran would shatter the middle east and redraw most borders along sectarian lines, and thence move to take on Israel. And Irani militias are not rag-tag ISIS types.. Hezb and Al-Badr are highly disciplined, highly trained, highly motivated forces.

With ISIS gone, who will take on these expeditionary militias in the middle east? Arab Armies that are untrained, unmotivated and kept weak by design so there would be no coups? A new Sunni force is needed.. And Pakistan is the chosen bearded boy with the Af-Pak-FATA region the deniable training & RnR area.

Towards these two ends, the Trumpanzee has offered tens of billions of dollars to Pakistan through the side channel of Saudis and UAE. The normal channels of World Bank/IMF would have put too many bureaucratic obstacles and the bureaucracy would simply not have agreed to use this channel.

This is the strategic opening that Paki elite saw. They are seen as indispensable to the greater US & Israeli agenda. They want to test this theory and went for simultaneous attacks on Iran and India, laying open their hand that they may do what the Arabs+US+Israeli alliance wants, but the India jihad comes as a package deal.

Now, they are waiting and watching how the world and India reacts. They know the Indian armed forces can roger them 10 different ways. But they also know that Indian fury is self-restrained, because India is a welfare & humanitarian oriented state. E.g. the recent revelations that Modi ji demanded, that not one casualty happen among the Commandos who went for post-Uri surgical strikes. For all his rage, he was still thinking about the welfare of Indians and doing that cost benefit analysis - 'Pakis are canon fodder, what will the Indians gain if even one more Indian life is lost'. Also, the statement that 'the strikes were against terrorists, and not the Pakistani Army', trying to mitigate the reaction from Pakis.

The final question they want answered is 'How loyal are the Americans and the Arabs? What can we get away with?' Which theater is more important to the Americans? The Indo-Pacific or the middle east?

I have repeatedly said, that now the Indian reaction must be disproportionate, seemingly irrational, sustained and unpredictable.


The MFN withdrawal signals the irrational part, the water news signals the sustained part.. But they are both predictable and proportionate responses (I pinch your wifes bottom, you pinch mine). India needs to come up with something unpredictable and disproportionate to dissuade Pakistani Elite that they will be able to get away with the India jihad because they are 'useful' to Saudis and Americans. As for the international reaction, every country is looking after its own interests, I really really doubt that anyone will do anything other than offer us 'thoughts and prayers'.

If the Pakistani elite think that they can get away with the India jihad from international actors (this is almost certainly going to happen), and manage the reaction from India, they will open the Jihad spigot wide open as it was pre-Parakram. And that will be something that will be completely intolerable to the Indian people. If there is to be a Punah Parakram, better that it happen now, rather than four years and thirty thousand Indian lives later. At least we would have saved those thirty thousand lives and the inevitable social tensions that come with it.

But thats just my take.. It may well be that India chooses to absorb punishment and wait till 2020s to mete out the medicine.

History stands like a blind woman, with her hand on the shoulders of Modi and Dobhal saab. May Vajrang Bali grant them the bal, buddhi, vidya to guide us all.

Vajrang Bali ki Jai!
Siawar Ram Chandra ki Jai!
Last edited by sudeepj on 15 Feb 2019 23:05, edited 3 times in total.

ramana
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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ramana » 15 Feb 2019 22:57

khan, Welcome back. Missed you sagacious posts.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 22:57

Singha wrote:we need to make some sacrifices for greater good. chinese electronics is #1 esp smartphone imports both whole and ckd.
sure even apple and samsung may make in china, but the net accretion to cheen economy is a lot less than cheeni brands. and we can always invite all the others to MII once the cheens are kicked out on national security grounds.

even if it is not MII, we should be fine with it for the time being. I am sure we can get much more leverage with few 100 jobs in US in some motorola/qualcomm plants than the cost savings from chinese. Right now is the time to strike. As much as i write with moist eyes and heavy heart, we need to use this opportunity to get back at the enemies of our nation.
There should be a tandav. Uri/pathankot were tests to our resolve but this is an open dare during election time.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby sudeepj » 15 Feb 2019 22:58

arshyam wrote:
syam wrote:Step-3 - Purge all anti-indian sentiments of Kashmir valley.

How exactly do we do this?


The fence on the LOC has gates in it.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 23:04

ramana wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote: start leveraging our advantage in heavy artillery.


Hello please no cruel jokes on us long suffering members.

It was with great "to do" that IA accepted the OFB and M777 guns.
Test the hell to make them explode and blame manufacturers.
Succeeded to that even with an imported gun M777 and no contrition.
"Shell exited in multiple pieces" wont acknowledge it blew up in barrel.
Two gun were there for firing table development.
Tested one to death and kept the other pristine.


And these are in marginal numbers.
Self -denuding mode.

ok..we do have
1. Indian Field Gun
2. M-46
3. FH77/B
4. Pinaka
5. Grad
Even if these are in marginal numbers, let's use them rather than rust in peace. Let's bring bring the pain. Why was it that they went crying to US for asking MMS to agree for a ceasefire and even if we're worse off. Lets make the move to it. In moments like these irrationality and bullheadedness have their own virtue.
Even for M777 and ATAGS/K9. We can produce. I am not talking about a few day attack. We have to inflict sustained pain

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby SBajwa » 15 Feb 2019 23:13

chetak wrote:this is the actual reason and motivation for the growing militancy in cashmere.

It happens nowhere else in the world and is/has been permitted by the various GoI so far.

stop this.

Even slain foreign militants are accorded this "honor", why?? what purpose does it serve??

watch the video.



https://twitter.com/i/status/1096406276567777280


Like I have been saying in past. Armed forces needs to spread a message among youth

1. Burned bodies do not get to paradise.
2. Burned bodies with pig fat go to hell.

and then instead of burying them start burning them publicly with pig fat. The incentive will be over.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby UlanBatori » 15 Feb 2019 23:17

I am registering Phormal Protest against withdrawal of MoFoN status to Bakistan. Bakistan is biggest MoFoN in the Dunia.
A sinking of a Paki ship is needed, and then totally denied. At least 200 deaths.

Yes it will send insurance on all Arabian Sea shipping sky-high. Deal with it.

Indira Gandhi was good at pulling off something like that, which is so far up the escalation ladder that it causes major takleef on the other side. It will cause a ruckus at the UN. Tell the UN reps to just sit with chin on hands and listen, do not react. Message: Yeah? Yeah. Suck it up.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby Singha » 15 Feb 2019 23:18

IDF bulldozes the homes of any captured or killed palestini terrorists. same must happen in cashemre right after the janaza of the dead rat is lifted to the grounds.

most certainly his immediately family keeps in sporadic contact with these absconders.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby ArjunPandit » 15 Feb 2019 23:21

^^ yak herder, why the denial? we should proudly own it.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby khan » 15 Feb 2019 23:25

ramana wrote:khan, Welcome back. Missed you sagacious posts.

Thank you, Saar!

Everytime I come back, it is a bittersweet experience. 18 years ago, when I initially joined, I was hoping that we would have 200+ LCA’s in the air with MCA somewhere between flying prototypes and production.

Also, everytime I come here, it seems as if India’s military dominance over Pakistan seems to be eroding over time instead of rapidly expanding.

I hope something happens to give the establishment a kick in the pants to get their act together before things deteriorate too badly.

That said, the quality of discourse of this most August of defense forums keeps increasing under your most enlightened leadership.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby sudeepj » 15 Feb 2019 23:30

Singha wrote:for a start, huawei and ZTE must by govt decree banned from all contracts in india.

and indian operators given 1 year to replace their gear.

lets impose some cost on china. their telco products are now a pariah in OECD and india is their last major market left.


China must pay a price for its continued perfidy. Nations compete on economies and culture and that is good competition. But shielding the murderers of Indians is intolerable. Why only huawei and ZTE, we need Indian society to boycott Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo too. I am done buying Chinese stuff.. If I have to pay more, I have to pay more.

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Re: Pulwama Attack

Postby madhu » 15 Feb 2019 23:31

chetak wrote:runditv.

and one rundi.



Image

What is 44? 56 i got.


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