anjan wrote:An adverse report on National Security for a govt. that positions itself as the natural party of National Security before an election year. Occam's razor and all that.
Many in the media, as is well known, loathe the current Govt. Taking anything at face value from them is unwise. Exactly per Occam's razor.
The reality is the SCOD report says we don't even have 10 days of war wastage reserves. To quote the VCOAS "Funds allocated is insufficient and the Army is finding it difficult to even stock arms, ammunition, spares for a 10-day intensive war.".
Lets be clear here. There were multiple points made by a GOI study on the matter and subsequent responses. The fact that you are unaware of them, despite being on BRF is pretty indicative that you have been almost completely misled by the media reportage which you thought was accurate, when it was anything but.
To begin with, your information is completely out of date. Lets look at the timeframe noted.
Earlier, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) too had highlighted severe shortfall of ammunition and spares. In a report placed before the Parliament in 2015, the CAG had observed: "while availability of authorised stock against War Wastage Reserve (WWR) to meet the expected duration of operation formed the basic criteria for ensuring the operational readiness of the Army, we found during the review that against the WWR of 40 (I) days, the availability of ammunition was only in 10 per cent of the total types of ammunition held (March 2013)."
To the point.
1. The proposal for having high WWR for an extended timeframe was fundamentally unworkable and never seriously taken up by the services themselves. An Army expert deposing in front of the respective committees quipped that if all the ammo "laid down in the requirement" was ordered, where would we store it? Simply put the storage capacity was completely insufficient. WWRs are themselves based on a very high consumption pattern of specific items, which is rarely if ever the case. Most countries have moved to a mix of EOQ based batch ordering for specific items and stockpiling the more scarce, high lead time items. E.g. bullets would come in the first category, a specific spare for a complex machine in the 2nd.
2. Based on above, entire projection and holding pattern for WWRs has been reworked to a mix of high intensity conflict (at which highest rate of consumption will occur) and more "normal" consumption thereafter. The numbers frequently thrown about are for the former rate.
3. WWRs being insufficient for <10 days viz the point above, were also with respect to specific items. Not all items. These specific items included items like gun ammo for the Mi-35 attack choppers, FSAPDS for the Tanks etc. Again, these were met by providing significant financial powers to the level of the VCOAS and significant purchases were made as well as signing priority deals to make up for the lacunae. Again, I am not going to spend more time on this necessary as the details are spread out across multiple weblinks in this forum, reports etc. But you should be aware of the fact we struck an emergency purchase deal for BM-42 FSAPDS with Russia + TOT, that the DRDO program was simultaneously cleared and recently passed its trials (giving us a 2nd line of FSAPDS ammo if we so desire), REFLEKs rounds were ordered en masse as a backup for the lag time in getting FSAPDs and finally, we even devolved financial order powers to the Service HQ, at the level of the VCOAS if memory serves.https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/i ... 2017-07-12
The army identified 46 kinds of ammunition, spares for 10 weapons platforms like infantry combat vehicles and half-a-dozen mines of various kinds as critical for war fighting. These items can be purchased through the emergency purchase route.
The executive order authorising the Vice Chief of Indian Army to make emergency purchases was issued recently. The delegation of financial powers shortens the long winded process and red-tape plagued process of procurement.
"Unlike previous process, there is no per-determined cap on the amount that can be spent. Rather, the limit to spending has been tied to the minimum stores, ammunition that must be in the reserve of the army at given time. This is big shift," a senior Ministry of Defence officer said.
Now. Lets look at the big picture numbers as of 2018.https://48months.mygov.in/wp-content/up ... 503472.pdf
Go to pages 15 onwards for the actual numbers involved for overall procurement.
Page 19 has the specific items regarding ammunition.25,000 crores worth of ammunition orders placed. That's $3 Bn of ammo orders at the exchange rate of Rs 80 to a dollar.
An equal number in the pipeline
Service HQ now have financial powers to make their purchases.
4. The above is actually nothing vis a vis what this Govt has actually done for the national security setup. The biggest thing is that they brought common sense and accountability back into the entire setup. Now I could quote what a very respected naval designer who spends his time day in and night out negotiating with his designers, vendors etc for some big-ticket programs says about the change in MOD functioning under the current GOI, but leave that out for now. First lets take Parrikars tenure. Came in, saw the complete dysfunction in procurement, makes a quip about how Govts buy stuff but don't maintain it and made it a priority that Su-30 and general fleet availability rises. The Su-30s were at 45% when Modi et al came in. By 2017, they were at 60%.https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... r-4471113/
It has risen further after that.
By 2017 itself.https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/a ... 2017-02-15
SERVICEABILITY: Every HAL supplied platform has 65 per cent serviceability and Sukhoi 30 MKI maximum serviceability of 68 per cent. We have given a proposal to MoD to become Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) for Sukhoi in India.
For a 200 odd Flanker fleet, that translates to around 2 squadrons plus of aircraft made available right off the bat.
By Gagan Shakti, 2018 this is what we had:
IAF was able to achieve 80% serviceability of aircraft while radars and surface to air guided weapons maintained a serviceability of 97%, which included some of the legacy systems that were over 40 years old. Focused effort enabled a dispatch rate of more than 95% for the Combat Assets, 100% availability of Combat Support Systems and almost 100% dispatch rates of Combat Enablers. This had been possible due to good planning and dedicated efforts of our airwarriors as well as continuous support by DPSUs that is HAL, BEL and DRDO. Flight line unserviceabilities were promptly rectified by dedicated maintenance crew. The logistics stamina of the IAF and the ability to sustain continuous operations through day and night was put through a rigorous assessment. Contingencies such as repair of battle damaged aircraft and relocation, of essential services due to enemy air action were also practiced.
So tell me, what prompted this IAF exercise and how did the sea change in the attitude of the support orgs come about?
Heres the source:https://www.indiastrategic.in/2018/04/2 ... akti-2018/
Take a direct quote from the main man himself.http://www.defstrat.com/interview-air-c ... ysm-vm-adc
CAS A major highlight of the exercise was a very high availability and reliability of all combat assets including aircraft, missile systems and radars. High tempo operations also enabled the IAF to ascertain sustainability of the logistics chain. We were able to achieve desired serviceability of aircraft. The radars and surface to air guided weapons also maintained a very high serviceability, which included some of the legacy systems that were over 40 years old. Focused effort enabled an exceptional dispatch rate of more than 95% for the Combat Assets, 100% availability of Combat Support Systems and exceptional dispatch rates of Combat Enablers. This had been possible due to good planning and dedicated efforts of our air warriors as well as continuous support by DPSUs like HAL & BEL and also DRDO. The Exercise also confirmed that the IAF is capable of high sortie generation rate along with sustenance of high serviceability through operations. This would have a force multiplier effect.
These sort of numbers, suffice to say, were a dream in years past.
Apart from this, we have had ALH logistics set up and taken over by HAL maintaining a spares stockpile - huge customer grouse no movement till current Govt.
Then Su-30 etc addressed by HAL with measures like this:https://www.financialexpress.com/india- ... ju/595777/http://www.asianage.com/india/all-india ... pares.html
The point is very simple, this Govt focused on things that matter without a huge hue and cry over some acquisition or the other. I can personally state that the Rafale deal is but the tip of the iceberg in terms of what the deal actually got us. I am not going around yacking because after seeing the mendacity of the opposition, nothing sensitive the current Govt did should be shared, even if deduced via open source, lest these idiots try to sabotage it.
One last thing, ever heard of a DM note that a specific missile was unserviceable and needed to be fixed? Parrikar sent a delegation to Russia for that. The current DM is busy carrying on fixing the MIC as well, and there are several reports already which I've heard. But lets leave it for now.
India has very few options because Governments over time including this one have not just failed to create them but seem to have gone out of their way to foreclose them.
In this, you are completely mistaken.
The current Govt inherited a broken treasury, could not tom tom it for the loss of investor confidence it would case, faced public expectations set around constant subsidies and freebies, huge outflows in terms of OROP and many other demands & has been navigating a minefield even so, whilst steadily adding capabilities.
No other Govt broke the Tejas logjam or without any fuss gave DRDO a year on year budget increase, to keep them going with critical programs. All this without scams or misdemeanour.
5. The COAS, VCAS etc want ad-hocism stopped, which is that they want the budget announced earlier in the year to include up-front the committed funds and don't want to rush to the MOD etc for emergency funds. They are deeply concerned about this particular factor and its a rational and well-justified concern. However, this does not mean that no purchases have been made either. As the figures above show orders have been placed & supplies are underway, and there are tangible improvements in terms of platform availability as well.
6. It will take at least 1-2 more tenures of the NDA till the money situation i.e. economy gets into the gear that justifies huge upfront commitment & not the kind of juggling we are seeing now. Based on what they inherited and what they faced, context does matter.
While things are not perfect, they are by no means as bleak as you thought they were either.