Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Karan M
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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Karan M » 27 Feb 2019 05:42

aharam wrote:The acknowledgment of this strike is highly interesting. It is intended as a political message and choice of target, its separation from collateral damage and sheer execution is excellent. This is when one wishes one was there :-)

To all those that were there, my heartfelt congratulations on a mission well executed.


A very proud day for you too sir!

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby khan » 27 Feb 2019 05:45

sudeepj wrote:Praveen Swami's reportage about the Kulbhushan Jadhav case will forever taint his journalistic credentials. A brave Indian went into the lions den with nothing but his wits and his two arms to defend himself. Jadhav did that to defend the sorry ass of Praveen Swami, and with his life hanging by a thread, Swami reported what he did. He is an extremely dubious charater.

But he has reported something from a former strike corps commander of the Pakistani Army, so probably worth going over.

Lt Gen Tariq Khan, former commander of the Mangla-based I Corps, Pakistan’s key strike formation, laid out the country’s new strategic dilemma in comments posted on a private WhatsApp group on Tuesday.

Each Indian cross-border strike, Gen Khan noted “erode our position of deterring war through our nuclear capability”—the keystone of the strategy of a weaker conventional power. That, in turn, means “we become more and more vulnerable to an asymmetric conventional threat”.

Thus, Gen Khan went on, “Our response should be to escalate and push the envelope of hostilities so that nuclear war is a likely outcome.” In his view, such an action “is not likely to escalate beyond reasonable boundaries because the rungs in the escalation ladder are so many that signatures leading to total war will reveal themselves well before [such a] war actually breaks out”. (In other words, Paks will back down as the 'signatures' of nuclear war make themselves visible)

India, he argues, “simply will not go down this road”: the larger, richer state, it has more to lose in an all-out conflict.

Ever since the 2001-02 near-war with India, Pakistan’s military establishment has argued that any Indian strike across the border, no matter how shallow, could be met with nuclear weapons, potentially plunging both countries into a nuclear apocalypse. Shireen Mazari, now a minister in Prime Minister Imran Khan’s cabinet, has argued “Pakistan has to go for a one-rung escalation ladder” -- that is, to reach for its nuclear weapons.

For the most part, Indian commentators have cast these claims as a bluff but seen through the optics of Islamabad there’s more than hyperbole.

“Deterrence,” Gen Khan argues, “is a mindset and never a tangible posture. It is an outcome of a possibility” [emphasis added]. For Pakistan’s generals, the real question is how to revive that possibility in Indian minds.


So what can the Pakis do to make nuclear war a 'likely outcome', while still controlling the thermostat of the conflict so the likely outcome does not become the actual outcome?

1. Further escalate the terror war using Jaish proxies.

2. An act of war so egregious, that public opinion makes an Indian response a near certainty.
2.a Assassination.
2.b Shoot down/Hijack a civil airliner.

3. Conventional aggression, such as a surprise torpedoing of an Indian ship or a surprise raid on an airfield followed by a quick jaunt to the UNSC.

4. Deploy Nasr with crore commanders, while also raising the temperature at the IB/LoC.

I am scratching my head trying to figure out how this Pakistani general can achieve what he claims. Either there is a space for fighting a sub-conventional war, or there isnt. And if one participant can play in that gray zone, two can do so.

Each of these options that Pakis think are open to them will need a well thought out political, diplomatic and communication response and I have full confidence in our babus that they are on top of this. But I do think, there is still some time for this latest crisis to unroll and Pakis will want to have another throw of the dice.


It is all nice and good to be having fine intellectual discussions about escalating, but what will they do if:

(1) They end up with egg on their face if their forces fail in their attempts to escalate backfire, for eg their planes get shot down, their armmour gets slaughtered at #Sialkot which seems to be their new feetish.

(2) India does massive retaliation to their retaliation - takes out the entire airbase that launched their birds or takes out the Tank Corps HQ in another air-strike.

Let us hope they don’t spent too much time on these intellectual discussions and actually do something stupid.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby sudeepj » 27 Feb 2019 05:46

Karan M wrote:Sudeep,

Praveen Swami is the usual guy Pak establishment messages through. He takes the scraps they throw off their table and fulfills their agenda. What guarantee is it that this private message etc was not specifically meant for him to communicate and threaten us through? Remember how that bomb Khan threatened India through Kuldeep Nayyar (another WKK).
We should just keep hitting back.


Agree, we should keep hitting back and Swami, as I mentioned, is a piece of shit.

However, its logical to expect an escalation from Pak at this time because thats the only way they keep their 'nukular deterrence' alive. From their point of view, deterrence has broken down and they would like to establish it again, because its this notion that has kept them relevant even within Pakistan for so long.

India, being the richer country, with free media etc. has a greater vulnerability to being blackmailed like this. E.g. the Kandahar episode.

I am not going to speculate on what they could do, rather simply make the point that they are going to try something and I hope our conflict managers are ready.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Bart S » 27 Feb 2019 05:47

Encounter on at Shopian with 3 terrorists holed up. Local ops continue as usual, and the CRPF deployment and raids on separatists was a good move to try and ensure that they did not use India-Pak tensions and alert on the border to regroup.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby sudeepj » 27 Feb 2019 05:49

khan wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Praveen Swami's reportage about the Kulbhushan Jadhav case will forever taint his journalistic credentials. A brave Indian went into the lions den with nothing but his wits and his two arms to defend himself. Jadhav did that to defend the sorry ass of Praveen Swami, and with his life hanging by a thread, Swami reported what he did. He is an extremely dubious charater.

But he has reported something from a former strike corps commander of the Pakistani Army, so probably worth going over.



So what can the Pakis do to make nuclear war a 'likely outcome', while still controlling the thermostat of the conflict so the likely outcome does not become the actual outcome?

1. Further escalate the terror war using Jaish proxies.

2. An act of war so egregious, that public opinion makes an Indian response a near certainty.
2.a Assassination.
2.b Shoot down/Hijack a civil airliner.

3. Conventional aggression, such as a surprise torpedoing of an Indian ship or a surprise raid on an airfield followed by a quick jaunt to the UNSC.

4. Deploy Nasr with crore commanders, while also raising the temperature at the IB/LoC.

I am scratching my head trying to figure out how this Pakistani general can achieve what he claims. Either there is a space for fighting a sub-conventional war, or there isnt. And if one participant can play in that gray zone, two can do so.

Each of these options that Pakis think are open to them will need a well thought out political, diplomatic and communication response and I have full confidence in our babus that they are on top of this. But I do think, there is still some time for this latest crisis to unroll and Pakis will want to have another throw of the dice.


It is all nice and good to be having fine intellectual discussions about escalating, but what will they do if:

(1) They end up with egg on their face if their forces fail in their attempts to escalate backfire, for eg their planes get shot down, their armmour gets slaughtered at #Sialkot which seems to be their new feetish.

(2) India does massive retaliation to their retaliation - takes out the entire airbase that launched their birds or takes out the Tank Corps HQ in another air-strike.

Let us hope they don’t spent too much time on these intellectual discussions and actually do something stupid.


The best outcome for India would be if their retaliation is nipped in the bud, e.g. planes shot down over Indian airspace, artillery barrage breaks up a tank concentration area, Paki terrorist national captured before a terror strike etc. As for stupidity, thats one competition they are likely to win hands down. The stupidest gernails in the whole world.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby pankajs » 27 Feb 2019 05:52

Karan M wrote:Sudeep,

Praveen Swami is the usual guy Pak establishment messages through. He takes the scraps they throw off their table and fulfills their agenda. What guarantee is it that this private message etc was not specifically meant for him to communicate and threaten us through? Remember how that bomb Khan threatened India through Kuldeep Nayyar (another WKK).
We should just keep hitting back.

Yup. He is their messenger for anything that needed to be passed on to the WKK brigade and for spreading FUD in the Indian public.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby sudeepj » 27 Feb 2019 06:11

https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ ... nce-48578/

If the Balakot strike is not to join the dismal achievement of previous Indian attacks, it has to be part of a deterrence strategy. This means that India must be prepared to escalate further when — not if — Pakistan responds. Pakistan’s response is a certainty and it could take either the form of a conventional riposte — an airstrike or even a missile strike — or further terror strikes. If Pakistan wants to be prudent, it will start with small terror attacks to begin with, which will be difficult for India to respond to with cross-border attacks, but eventually salami-slice its way to larger attacks, demonstrating that the Indian strikes have been a failure. Indian decision-makers must set clear lines for themselves about the severity of the attacks to which they will respond, even if this is more than a bit cold because parameters may include the numbers of dead or the importance of the target.


But more importantly, Indian leaders must prepare forces, equipment, intelligence and plans for further escalation. India can dominate the escalation ladder because even its weakened military is still far stronger than what Pakistan can manage. India must leverage its conventional superiority and explicitly seek escalation because that is where its advantage lies. Unfortunately, though, each time India has escalated through its cross-border strikes, it has also signaled that it did not want to escalate further in a variety of ways, including by taking extraordinary care to avoid targeting the Pakistan Army. These terror attacks are sponsored by the Pakistan Army on Indian forces and citizens and there is little reason why India should take such care to avoid targeting it. Indeed, it is necessary for deterrence. But this time again, the Ministry of External Affairs statement refers to the attack as a ‘non-military preemptive action,’ a ridiculous formulation that seems designed as a desperate signal to Pakistan that India does not want to escalate to the ‘military’ level. This fear is odd, because until now, Pakistan has shown little willingness to escalate in response to Indian attacks, despite fierce and blood-curdling threats beforehand. And this, once again, is perfectly rational behaviour for Pakistan. It makes no sense for the weaker side in a dispute to escalate. But India’s decision-makers have convinced themselves, contrary to all empirical evidence, that Pakistan is not rational, its behaviour will not be predictable and therefore they should be feared. As long as Indian officialdom has such terror of escalation, deterring terror will be simply impossible.

Indian decision-makers have to think about why it is that previous Indian strikes failed to establish a deterrence regime and ensure that the same fate does not befall the Balakot strike. Much as Indian might celebrate the Balakot attack — and it is worthy of celebration — these will be short-lived if India does not learn the lessons of previous cases. Pakistan may not escalate but it will definitely respond. It will test India’s deterrence limits over and over, until it is convinced that the costs of its behavior far outweigh the benefits. This will take time, patience and an Indian willingness and preparation to escalate every time Pakistan transgresses.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby banrjeer » 27 Feb 2019 06:12

Foolhardy that Pakistan wants to piss off Iran at the same time as India even if it's sponsored by the Saudis. Perhaps they are desperate for money and no longer know what they are doing.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/ ... 25267.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/featu ... 43271.html

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby aharam » 27 Feb 2019 06:13

Karan M wrote:
aharam wrote:The acknowledgment of this strike is highly interesting. It is intended as a political message and choice of target, its separation from collateral damage and sheer execution is excellent. This is when one wishes one was there :-)

To all those that were there, my heartfelt congratulations on a mission well executed.


A very proud day for you too sir!


Thanks Karan. This is almost another generation now at the helm of affairs. And they are justifiably very good. There appears to have been some well executed feints here. Not much chance of PAF CAP catching anything - they would be focussed first on their air assets, then their ground assets. Deep penetration strike is the last thing you would think of. All in all, very well done.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby khan » 27 Feb 2019 06:32

sudeepj wrote:The best outcome for India would be if their retaliation is nipped in the bud, e.g. planes shot down over Indian airspace, artillery barrage breaks up a tank concentration area, Paki terrorist national captured before a terror strike etc. As for stupidity, thats one competition they are likely to win hands down. The stupidest gernails in the whole world.


Indeed! It would be nice if their planes were shot down or whatever tank corps that happened upon #Sialkot :mrgreen: were anhiated.

A cherry on top would be - if their pilots/Tank commanders are paraded around in orange jumpsuits for the cameras - of course to be followed by a devastating retaliation at the airbase or Corps HQ from where the ill-fated operation was conceived.

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Re: Indian Air Forces Strikes Pakistan along with Ground Assault

Postby Julian_Bashir » 27 Feb 2019 06:46

Sid wrote:
Sid wrote:
Question is what is their target of choosing?

1. A military target in J&K.

2. Bait, and jump some lone flights on CAP or interception.

3. Another terrorist attack, an IAF target. Coupled with deniability, designed to embarrass for IAF.

1, or 2, will invite heavy military response. These are high risk low gain options, but will reinstate their image of poor victims.

3 is highly probable, but will invite similar air strikes in PoK, and will make Porkies a defacto terrorist state.


I would also add following options to the response matrix -

4. A Nuke missile tests.

5. A Nuke test itself.

6. A TNW usage near Porki side of LOC to demonstrate their will that they can use it.

7. PAF targeting some JEM training post in J&K itself, claiming they too are targeting terrorist.

8. PAF targeting Siachin, or remote Infra which is hard to defend.

PAF has GID-REK kits which are similar to JDAMs, allowing long range GPS/INS guided navigation but with much lower CEP.


If the had brains they would target infrastructure, energy or economic asset

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Sumeet » 27 Feb 2019 06:50

KaranM,

Here is recording of Modi's Iskcon Delhi speech, (do watch it when you get a chance)


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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby SriKumar » 27 Feb 2019 06:58

If they had any brains- which I think some of them do, they would ask themselves: which aggressive act from their side will NOT invite another retaliation. Well, I cannot think of one...other than a terrorist attack that kills 2-3 civilians, or cross-border shelling (which they are already doing).

If they prepare to do any form of formal attack, they will need to prepare their army and country for a fullscale war (in a defensive posture) and they know this. How long can they hold the defensive posture?
And even that will not save them from a counter attack. And they can be sure the response will be heavier. It is Modi they are dealing with. I very much doubt there will be any counter attack of note (they might shoot down a drone or something).
Last edited by SriKumar on 27 Feb 2019 07:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2019 07:01

Come to think of it, there was no collateral damage in the pest-e-shaeed. A pity. OTOH, the LOC tamashas are plainly and deliberately intended to cause civilian casualties: the Pakis target innocents going about their business on the Indian side, themselves firing ATGMS from civilian houses where civilians are held hostage, so that India has to make the houses untenable.

IMO life in interior Pak cities such as 'Hore and 'Pindi must be made extremely risky because your neighborhood terrorists are going to get taken out with 1000KG bums or Prithvis. This is the only way to obtain a segregation between the "civilians" and the pests. In the near term the way to do it is to bomb with a large CEP and not worry about collateral. If they live next to terrorists, well, they put themselves in the target area. Tough.

In any case, the Indian Establishment, military or civilian, must make it FIRM policy that life and limb of soldiers/law enforcement will not be risked to avoid enemy "collateral damage". Like we say, this is crucial to peace for the future. Give Peace a Chance, Destroy Pakistan.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby yensoy » 27 Feb 2019 07:08

1. Paki military overtly targetting any asset - civilian, infrastructure, economic, or military will be a major escalation and will call for serious response including a naval blockade, bombardment of oil reserves & air bases, and enforcement of no-fly zones. We can do it well within the nuclear threshold (which I believe is crossed only during ground assault, or the possible dissolution of the paki state).

2. Paki military elite will continue to strut about and maintain their supremacy in that country; idiot population has been brainwashed and will support the military without question as they continue to bleed; the very few individuals questioning this parasitic relationship will be brought in for re-education. This actually suits us because they will never be an economic threat, our trajectories will diverge, and with increasing population they will be reduced to Somalia status in a decade.

3. This is a great time to say "mission accomplished" and return the MFN status to pak as a palm-olive branch (because palmolive da jawab nahi), and bring down import duties :-). Blow hot-blow cold, keep them guessing. Feed the hyena before beating it again.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Feb 2019 07:17

yensoy wrote:3. This is a great time to say "mission accomplished" and return the MFN status to pak as a palm-olive branch (because palmolive da jawab nahi), and bring down import duties :-). Blow hot-blow cold, keep them guessing. Feed the hyena before beating it again.


Tauba tauba! Hum atomi takaat hain. Tamaater ke jaaga humare paas Hasina Atim Bum! Image

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2019 07:25

From Toronto Sun: (A fairly balanced article)
Nuclear rivals India and Pakistan on a warpath
As Canadians sat fixated on their television sets Monday night, awaiting byelection results from Burnaby South that would determine the survival of Jagmeet Singh as the first politician of Indian heritage to vie for our country’s leadership, on the other side of the globe, Singh’s ancestral homeland India had launched a bombing raid on its nuclear-armed neighbour Pakistan.

Both nuclear-armed neighbours acknowledged that Indian Mirage jet fighters had carried out an aerial bombing on the Pakistani town of Balakot, catching Pakistan air defences by total surprise. This was the first time since the India-Pakistan war of 1971 that the military of either country had crossed the international border.

Until the Tuesday pre-dawn air raid, both India and Pakistan had restricted their military actions to the ‘Line of Control’ that divides Kashmir into an area under Indian administration and the territory captured by Pakistan-based jihadi tribesmen in 1947, referred to by Islamabad as ‘Azad Kashmir’ and by India as ‘Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir’ or POK.

The Indian bombardment of the town of Balakot is reported to have killed over 300 members and leaders of the Islamic terror outfit ‘Jaish-e-Muhammad’ (JeM), according to India’s top Defence Ministry official. JeM had earlier this month killed 45 Indian soldiers in a suicide attack.

Pakistan, it seems, believed India would respond with traditional restraint. Even when JeM attacked the Indian metropolis of Mumbai killing hundreds and gutting a Jewish Centre, New Delhi did not respond. When jihadi terrorists attacked the Indian parliament, the Lok Sabha, no retaliation was contemplated.

Perhaps the Pakistani junta and its puppet civilian servants did not realize there was a new sheriff in town. The hitherto uptight pretend sophisticates who ruled India from Delhi’s colonial-era Lutyens billion-rupee residences had been replaced in 2014 by a modest man mocked as a ‘Chaiwala’ — a street tea-seller.

After the February attack by Pakistan-based jihadis, India’s tea-seller Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared, he had left it in the hands of his generals to decide how to respond. And in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, they did; India’s air force struck inside Pakistan.


Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan shrugged away India’s claim that it had hit a terrorist training camp, claiming the attack was “a self-serving, reckless and fictitious claim.”

As for Pakistan’s armed forces, who are the real rulers of the near-bankrupt nation, spokesman Maj-Gen Asif Ghafoor boasted: “It is your turn now to wait and get ready for our surprise,” addressing India’s leaders.

After the Feb 14 attack by Pakistan-backed JeM jihadis that killed 44 Indian soldiers, I had tweeted: “Mark my words, India will respond and it’s not going to be pretty.”

Nothing to gloat about, but here is another word of caution from someone who was born in Pakistan and understands the psyche of the Military-Mullah machine that operates Pakistan:

The world has to recognize, Pakistan’s 200 nukes, aimed at India and also Israel, are not in the hands of a typical command and control structure, but rather in hands of jihadi zealots sworn to the eradication of what the Pakistan Army refers to as the ‘Hanood wa Yahood’—Hindus and Jews.

We are closer to a nuclear war than we were during the Cuban crisis, but as long as we can blame all ills of the world on Iran, who cares what happens in the Indian subcontinent.




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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Amber G. » 27 Feb 2019 07:28

Video Below

https://twitter.com/i/status/1100358565280198656 ---> Pakistanis keep on claiming that our Bombs did Zero Damage. But the body language & expressions of each and every military individual sitting here just tells a different story. All Stunned and Horrified.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rakesh » 27 Feb 2019 07:37

Amber G. wrote:Video Below

https://twitter.com/i/status/1100358565280198656 ---> Pakistanis keep on claiming that our Bombs did Zero Damage. But the body language & expressions of each and every military individual sitting here just tells a different story. All Stunned and Horrified.

Imran Khan is waaay out of his league :lol:

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby neeraj » 27 Feb 2019 07:38

Amber G. wrote:Video Below

https://twitter.com/i/status/1100358565280198656 ---> Pakistanis keep on claiming that our Bombs did Zero Damage. But the body language & expressions of each and every military individual sitting here just tells a different story. All Stunned and Horrified.

26 pages of this thread all culminating to this video. Jingo khush hua.
Amber G - thanks for making my Tuesday a memorable one

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rakesh » 27 Feb 2019 07:43

Video

https://twitter.com/ShivAroor/status/11 ... 4589168641 ---> After 26/11, then IAF chief Air Chief Marshal Fali Major famously recommended punitive air strikes on terror camps. Here’s what he told me today when I asked him what had changed this time. #IndiaStrikesBack

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rakesh » 27 Feb 2019 07:45

https://twitter.com/rahulsinghx/status/ ... 9240380416 ---> That's a Spice bomb (dropped by Mirage 2000s on Balakot terror camp).'

Image

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rakesh » 27 Feb 2019 07:46

Twitter thread on the Spice bomb from Angad Singh. Read it all!!

https://twitter.com/zone5aviation/statu ... 3050335232

Image

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Re: Indian Air Forces Strikes Pakistan along with Ground Assault

Postby la.khan » 27 Feb 2019 07:47

Y I Patel wrote:I went up for air from this thread and what do I read? Trump is meeting KJU in Vietnam. This horrible India Pakistan thing is just a nuisance distraction. Move along now. Nothing to see along the LoC!

Agreed. I don't read western media much but from what little I read, there is no mention of anything about the Indian subcontinent, skirmish, nuclear flashpoint, restraint ityadi. May be, nobody in the west gives a rat's a$$. And, that is just as well :twisted: Helps us to stay focused and get the task(s) at hand completed to our satisfaction.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rishi_Tri » 27 Feb 2019 07:48

Latest.. Post Strike Tauba Tauba.. :rotfl: .. All the Atami talk is now gone.

I have to admit, he has honesty to acknowledge ... Kamyaab Hamla :wink:

Last edited by Rishi_Tri on 27 Feb 2019 07:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rakesh » 27 Feb 2019 07:48

https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1 ... 8106257409 ---> A very rare file pic of a non-upgraded Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 with a Spice 2000 guided smart weapon. This is what today's strike formation would have looked like.

Image

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Rishi_Tri » 27 Feb 2019 07:52

Rakesh wrote:https://twitter.com/VishnuNDTV/status/1100412618106257409 ---> A very rare file pic of a non-upgraded Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 with a Spice 2000 guided smart weapon. This is what today's strike formation would have looked like.

Image


One question for gurus .. Read many reasons why Mirages were used. What are the reasons Jaguars were not used? They are specialized ground attack, have been upgraded over the years, and would have been as potent in the Strike Package they were going to be part of.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby rhytha » 27 Feb 2019 07:58

khan wrote:
sudeepj wrote:Praveen Swami's reportage about the Kulbhushan Jadhav case will forever taint his journalistic credentials. A brave Indian went into the lions den with nothing but his wits and his two arms to defend himself. Jadhav did that to defend the sorry ass of Praveen Swami, and with his life hanging by a thread, Swami reported what he did. He is an extremely dubious charater.

But he has reported something from a former strike corps commander of the Pakistani Army, so probably worth going over.



So what can the Pakis do to make nuclear war a 'likely outcome', while still controlling the thermostat of the conflict so the likely outcome does not become the actual outcome?

1. Further escalate the terror war using Jaish proxies.

2. An act of war so egregious, that public opinion makes an Indian response a near certainty.
2.a Assassination.
2.b Shoot down/Hijack a civil airliner.

3. Conventional aggression, such as a surprise torpedoing of an Indian ship or a surprise raid on an airfield followed by a quick jaunt to the UNSC.

4. Deploy Nasr with crore commanders, while also raising the temperature at the IB/LoC.

I am scratching my head trying to figure out how this Pakistani general can achieve what he claims. Either there is a space for fighting a sub-conventional war, or there isnt. And if one participant can play in that gray zone, two can do so.

Each of these options that Pakis think are open to them will need a well thought out political, diplomatic and communication response and I have full confidence in our babus that they are on top of this. But I do think, there is still some time for this latest crisis to unroll and Pakis will want to have another throw of the dice.


It is all nice and good to be having fine intellectual discussions about escalating, but what will they do if:

(1) They end up with egg on their face if their forces fail in their attempts to escalate backfire, for eg their planes get shot down, their armmour gets slaughtered at #Sialkot which seems to be their new feetish.

(2) India does massive retaliation to their retaliation - takes out the entire airbase that launched their birds or takes out the Tank Corps HQ in another air-strike.

Let us hope they don’t spent too much time on these intellectual discussions and actually do something stupid.


Everybody has a plan until they are punched in the mouth

Manish_P
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Re: Indian Air Forces Strikes Pakistan along with Ground Assault

Postby Manish_P » 27 Feb 2019 08:27

Karan M wrote:Manish P great job.


Entirely my pleasure, I assure you. I am a sucker for interviews with services folks. And this interview by God was so fun for the ex-Chief. You couldn't miss the glint in his eyes nor the lilt in his voice that I just couldn't resist going the whole hog.

PS: today morning as I head out to work I can see fresh flowers on a lot of the road side banners erected post pulwama. Spotted some senior citizens (out on their morning walks) placing flowers, shopkeepers, sanitation workers too..

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby yensoy » 27 Feb 2019 08:32

Declaration of war

In all the hot air and confusion blowing in from Pindi, there is one unmistakable fact. Pakistan has not declared war on us. Pakistan has also not claimed that our actions of yesterday is tantamount to India declaring war on Pakistan. Our stance has been clear here - that this is a non-military pre-emptive strike against terrorists with no civilian or military targets, and we have not declared war on Pakistan either.

So all the LoC and ceasefire violations are localized pissing contents initiated by the defrocked Pakis but they will remain localized. Verbiage is very important here, not just a technicality.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby tandav » 27 Feb 2019 08:36

India must have communicated to China that any Pakistani nuclear attack on India will invite an Indian Nuclear retaliation on China. Essentially GOI knows that Pakistani nuclear weapons are Chinese nukes and Chinese delivery systems.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby yensoy » 27 Feb 2019 08:41

tandav wrote:India must have communicated to China that any Pakistani nuclear attack on India will invite an Indian Nuclear retaliation on China. Essentially GOI knows that Pakistani nuclear weapons are Chinese nukes and Chinese delivery systems.


I was going to propose such a thing - that we equate Pak and Chinese nukes.

But the deterrence downside is that if things get very hot between Pak and India, and China feels that Pak will do something stupid, they will take out Indian nuclear assets in a pre-emptive first strike. In other words, we are opening up a nuclear front with China even without their direct involvement in a war.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2019 08:46

Amber G. wrote:Video Below
https://twitter.com/i/status/1100358565280198656 ---> Pakistanis keep on claiming that our Bombs did Zero Damage. But the body language & expressions of each and every military individual sitting here just tells a different story. All Stunned and Horrified.

Absolutely priceless!

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby UlanBatori » 27 Feb 2019 09:00

60km standoff for SPICE package? They why go deep inside Pak - the target was only 65km from LOC. I think they mean 6km standoff, and no need to keep target in view with laser painting it.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Nirantar » 27 Feb 2019 09:03

My reading says that the retaliation will never come from Paki fauj or AF. They know pretty well that their azz will be whooped and handed over on a plate. Conventionally, in direct conflict, their pride will be hurt and their image before Paki awaam and politicians will be eroded. They cant risk that going forward, their politicians overrule them calling them puzzies.

Most likely in coming days, they will arm Hizbul, JeM etc with more deadly weapons like rocket launchers, bigger guns, MBIEDs. There are chances of plane hijacks, bomb planting in bigger cities.

Not a dhoti shivering but we have to be fully ready and annihilate the biglets.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Sanju » 27 Feb 2019 09:07

Guys for your viewing pleasure. We all watched it back in 2014 and waited for it. For one day we knew that Modiji would be given the chance and he would grab it with both hands!


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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby saip » 27 Feb 2019 09:07

Since it has a total of 12 control surfaces in 3 groups (fore, mid-body and tail), the "Spice" has a very long glide range, of about 60 kilometers. This allows a striking aircraft to release a bomb at a target without entering the threat envelope of most short- and medium-range air defense systems which might protect it. This is achieved while saving the higher costs associated with propelled munitions.

Wiki

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby manjgu » 27 Feb 2019 09:09

1) In the Vid , Imran looks like gangster boss of 70's movies ( ajeet, ranjeet etc) wearing a red muffler, rocking in the chair...thanks he did not put his feet on the table. The others in vid look like the goondas chamchas... hilarious... looks like the combined IQ of all the folks in the room will barely cross 100 !! 2) i hope they try a Isreali Air Force ( 1967 ) type attack.. 3) they will surely do something not in J&K..but a little intrusion in Punjab or Rajasthan ( since we did something in KPK and not in POK) ..drop a few bombs and declare victory.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Mort Walker » 27 Feb 2019 09:09

UlanBatori wrote:60km standoff for SPICE package? They why go deep inside Pak - the target was only 65km from LOC. I think they mean 6km standoff, and no need to keep target in view with laser painting it.


That's probably maximum range with clear line-of-sight. Two factors on Tuesday morning was weather rain/snow and the terrain hilly/mountains. The IAF made sure they hit the target. I hope we get to see IAF footage of this. Surely one of the support Mirage 2000 was carrying infrared night time cameras.

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Re: Indian Forces Strikes Pakistan Terrorist Camps

Postby Aditya_V » 27 Feb 2019 09:09

UlanBatori wrote:60km standoff for SPICE package? They why go deep inside Pak - the target was only 65km from LOC. I think they mean 6km standoff, and no need to keep target in view with laser painting it.


Has there been official confirmation of Spice, it might be a cheaper LGB and the target might have been on reverse slopes, IAF it seems wanted to take out the target with determination along with its ISI officers et al, plus they have assessed the PAF capabilities which as correctly premised downhill skied.


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