Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 04 Mar 2019 12:29

pankajs wrote: The cynic in me has another angle how this can be gamed ... Modi being the smart politician that he is.

How do you trip up your opponent without being aggressive? Allow them to attack you on an issue that *WILL be seen* as an attack on India i.e. the mango admi's ego.

a funny thing is happening in TN social media..

few fringes were always anti-modi and used to get some likes/RTs based on "tamil exceptionalism" sentiment etc.

then they overplayed their hand by posting pro imran, pro pak, "asking questions" etc and now getting roundly thrashed.

..

at national level, the bar has been set. no central govt can now survive a big terror attack without retaliation.

TandavBrahmand · Post by **TandavBrahmand** » 04 Mar 2019 12:42

Air chief press conference live. He stated targets were hit according to the plan. Watch live on News18.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 04 Mar 2019 12:43

Gus wrote:ana/anna was a coin before paise. it came to 4 ana for 1 rupee.

OT: I think it may have been 16 aana to a rupee.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2019 12:46

Gus wrote:a funny thing is happening in TN social media..

few fringes were always anti-modi and used to get some likes/RTs based on "tamil exceptionalism" sentiment etc.

then they overplayed their hand by posting pro imran, pro pak, "asking questions" etc and now getting roundly thrashed.

There are very few people who will like stuff like that. Even folks who are normally the most docile and forgiving will hold resentment when you hit their egos and there is certainly a considerable ego invested with one's state/country/Identity.

Elementary mistake many anti-Modi folks make. NEVER say anything that will hurt the identity of a person if you are looking for their vote.

at national level, the bar has been set. no central govt can now survive a big terror attack without retaliation.

Absolute NEW normal.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 04 Mar 2019 12:47

Gus wrote:
pravula wrote:
naal-anna in Tamil
ana/anna was a coin before paise. it came to 4 ana for 1 rupee.

for a long time 25 paise was called naalana (four ana). since 25 paise was discontinued, people lost the connection between 1 ana and quarter..

Gusji the relation is 16 Anna = 100 paise = 1 Rupee.
That's why 4 Anna is 25 paise or chavvani. 8 Anna is 50 paise or eathani. So someone saying 16 Anna sachi baat is referring to being 100% true.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2019 13:02

Balakot strike, IAF chief said we hot the Target. Hope thats put to the speculation and no need to trust folks like Kapil Sibal, Dig Vijay singh etc.

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 04 Mar 2019 13:02

What Happened At Balakot? Unreleased Satellite Pics May Prove India's Case-Vishnu Som
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-ha ... se-2002060

NDTV has also been shown a non-classified satellite image of a target in the Indian Air Force's test range in the Pokhran desert once it was hit by a Spice 2000 bomb in September, 2016. The structure, shown and circled below, has a small hole on its roof, the entry point of the weapon. A similar point of entry will be visible, according to officials, in the satellite imagery of the Jaish-e-Mohammed camp.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 04 Mar 2019 13:04

The non-military preemptive anti terror action is such groundbreaking event. So many shackles, mostly self imposed and some taken as gospel truth never to be questioned, have been obliterated!.IMHO, The best unintended benefit being common people are waking up to Pakistani four-fathers and real backers of napakis and how they have propped up and financed phony equal == equal for all this decades. The real antiIndia bakshis to Pakis, of 70+ F-16 Fighters with 500 AIM-120-C3,BVR AMRAAM with upto 110km range , from uncle, given to fight non existent Al-Qaeda airforce, is now household knowledge!!

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2019 13:11

Guys I have noted one thing, going through Flight radar 24 there seems to be an Unusually high number of China Southern Airlines and PIA flights from Islamabad and other Pakistani airports to China.

Wonder whether one of the side effects is that CPEC has taken a temporary pause?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Mar 2019 13:14

Aditya_V wrote:Balakot strike, IAF chief said we hot the Target. Hope thats put to the speculation and no need to trust folks like Kapil Sibal, Dig Vijay singh etc.

twitter

More importantly they can’t digest that Mig 21 has downed a F16. Billions of dollars involved, bad publicity for LM. So, assests and money deployed to kill the story. What better way than not even acknowledging IAF statement.

10:55 PM - 3 Mar 2019

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 04 Mar 2019 13:15

Gus wrote: at national level, the bar has been set. no central govt can now survive a ~~big~~ terror attack without retaliation.

Corrected. Thank you.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 04 Mar 2019 13:15

https://twitter.com/reachanshul/status/ ... 6386728960

Going by the Air Situation, the Su-30MKI Package had a deter mandate from the Netra and no clearance to engage as hostilities had not been declared.The AIM-120C lock and launch by the F-16 was entirely unexpected and the entire formation broke-off to evade the incoming AIM-120 C.Hukum added,

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Mar 2019 13:19

If that is true, then don't we have to right to retaliate if fired upon? MKIs could have engaged the F-16s at BVR ranges in return.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2019 13:20

Would have sneaked back across the LOC and that terminated the engagement. RoE would prevent a chase or a shot across the LOC with a BVR missile.

Even now when both sides are on CAP mission from time to time either side would be in the BVR range of the other across the LOC

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 04 Mar 2019 13:23

IF the above account is correct, perhaps there may be re-think on the RoEs in the future, where right to retaliate will be assumed in case of any hostile action.

But will for confirmation about what exactly happened.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2019 13:23

I think the problem as in Kargil is that IAF expects PA and PAF to play by the rules, which they dont.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2019 13:27

^^
What about sanctity of the RoE when India executed Balakot? You see the sanctity is maintained EXCEPT when EXPLICIT political mandate is given to breach the RoE.

That at least is my understanding from the whole episode. I have no ideas what the actual RoEs are.

partha · Post by **partha** » 04 Mar 2019 13:32

IAF chief at the press conference: the operations are still on going!

Expect continued blackouts and airspace closure in Pakistan.

DrRatnadip · Post by **DrRatnadip** » 04 Mar 2019 13:34

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/middle ... 248206.cms

Hope Iran repeats something similar to IAF strikes.. They are well capable of few punitive cross border raids..

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Mar 2019 13:36

Aren't they severely short on jets?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2019 13:38

partha wrote:IAF chief at the press conference: the operations are still on going!

Expect continued blackouts and airspace closure in Pakistan.

This is interesting.

1. Could be a means to maintain pressure.
2. Could be that trust on sanctity RoE has broken down.
3. Make the costs [blackouts, air travel, etc] visible to the elites of the country and bring home to them their vulnerability [lack of depth; Balakot has opened them to an air assault]. Elites who though only cannon fodder die either in India or on the LOC.
4. or, Further ops are planned.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2019 13:45

Has Dimran spoken yet on the issue after his parliamentary address on Wg Cmd Abhi?

DrRatnadip · Post by **DrRatnadip** » 04 Mar 2019 13:45

Karthik S wrote:Aren't they severely short on jets?

Agreed sir.. I was talking about ground raids..

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Mar 2019 13:47

Looks like the planes are flying close to afghan and iran border.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 04 Mar 2019 14:07

What does IAF Chief mean by "ongoing operations" ? Is there something else going on ?
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1102481500556017664
Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa on being asked about the current situation at the border: It is an ongoing operation, I will not comment on that.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Mar 2019 14:09

Hukum
‏@reachanshul
30m30 minutes ago

The F-16 is known in USAF circles as the “lawn dart” for its tendency to plunge vertically down to Earth on loss of engine power.

The F-16 has been involved in over 650 hull-loss accidents as of June 2016.

650!!!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Mar 2019 14:14

4600 is the total number built.
nearly 15% hull loss accidents.

F15 (all types is 123 destroyed) out of around 1700 built.
7.2% - nearly half of F-16 rate.

must be understood that F-15 is a statically stable a/c so may be able to glide properly and it has 2 engines. the F-16 is statically unstable fbw a/c so maybe on loss of engine power its not a great glider?

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Mar 2019 14:21

Yup, recall Israeli pilot safely landed a F-15 with a missing wing, it was torn off after a mid air collision IIRC. F-16 was designed to be inherently unstable to facilitate higher maneuverability. Recall Israeli Ace Giora Epstein mentioning, while comparing Israli Mirage and F-16, that the pilot is just one of the inputs along with other computers to the jet.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2019 14:24

In all this we have forgotten the CH3/Wing Long take down by Derby/Spyder in Gujarat. what was the ROE there and what was the PAF probing ? Spyder systems are generally deployed at Airbases and this was probably from Bhuj airbase. Anymore details on the drone and what was the PAF attempting in Kutch?

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 04 Mar 2019 14:26

jamwal wrote:What does IAF Chief mean by "ongoing operations" ? Is there something else going on ?
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1102481500556017664
Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa on being asked about the current situation at the border: It is an ongoing operation, I will not comment on that.

They are mobilized and have not yet stood down, so it would be an ongoing op, at least that is how I read it.

dipak · Post by **dipak** » 04 Mar 2019 14:26

In my opinion, the Balakot strike has provided us a key take-away among others - 'Non-military pre emptive' strike.

This term should be used again and again in future.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 04 Mar 2019 14:32

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 314610.cms

Military using 13 satellites to keep eye on foes.

Of the 13, RISAT 1 and 2 have been decommissioned. But still we should have plenty of assets for before and after imagery. Perhaps, we can even count the number of ambulances and dead bodies even.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Mar 2019 14:42

Aditya_V wrote:In all this we have forgotten the CH3/Wing Long take down by Derby/Spyder in Gujarat. what was the ROE there and what was the PAF probing ? Spyder systems are generally deployed at Airbases and this was probably from Bhuj airbase. Anymore details on the drone and what was the PAF attempting in Kutch?

there are 3 bases in that region. bhuj and naliya are close, on the same latitude in the rann. these are the running backs on wings.
behind them across the gulf of kutch is jamnagar is which is bigger linebacker.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 165062.cms

Debris of the UAV was seen near Nanghatad village in Abdasa taluka of Kutch, they said.

abdasa taluk maps to naliya town, so either a SAM there or MANPAD further out near IB took the drone down
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Taluk ... 68.8316631

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Mar 2019 14:52

checking list of villages in guj, the real name is Nundhatad https://gujecostat.gujarat.gov.in/sites ... %20ENG.pdf

it is here https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nundh ... 69.0899931

distance from IB itself is 150+ km. location is actually SE of Naliya some 40km . which means it had somehow bypassed naliya and was wandering in the rear going further in or egressing when shot.

either way to its got to be a UAV of good size like 4-6 hr endurance to fly so far and it will need SATCOM to NLOS ops deep india. MALE category.

PAF had 4 CH4 drones for surveillance and had inked a pact to assemble 48 WingLong2 armed drones.
so my guess is one of these CH4 drones was shot by a IAF fighter using AAM. the location is well outside spyder envelope of naliya AFB.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/china-p ... ii-drones/

no desi DDM seems to have followed up the deshgujrat initial report to get into all this detail.

my guess is a sneak attack using ATGMs/suicide dive was planned for jamnagar petro complex as a stern chetawani to india that very night. that uav may have been on a maritime patrol mission (like our herons) and was retasked in the air to divert east and sniff around/attack.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 04 Mar 2019 14:52

Gus wrote:
a funny thing is happening in TN social media..

few fringes were always anti-modi and used to get some likes/RTs based on "tamil exceptionalism" sentiment etc.

then they overplayed their hand by posting pro imran, pro pak, "asking questions" etc and now getting roundly thrashed.

...

Well sir.. I have seen many whatsapp groups getting evaporated due to pro rahul and pro modi groups. Especially after the airstrike this has increased.
The same has been speen in Ireland, where my cousin had a bad argument on same issue.
This is something new for india i feel. Never seen somuch intense fight between people ripping them between politics. Some times feel is it worth?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2019 14:58

Singha wrote:checking list of villages in guj, the real name is Nundhatad https://gujecostat.gujarat.gov.in/sites ... %20ENG.pdf

it is here https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nundh ... 69.0899931

distance from IB itself is 150+ km. location is actually SE of Naliya some 50km . which means it had somehow bypassed naliya and was wandering in the rear going further in or egressing when shot.

either way to its got to be a UAV of good size like 4-6 hr endurance to fly so far and it will need SATCOM to NLOS ops deep india.

PAF had 4 CH4 drones for surveillance and had inked a pact to assemble 48 WingLong2 armed drones.
so my guess is one of these CH4 drones was shot by a IAF fighter using AAM. the location is well outside spyder envelope of naliya AFB.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/10/china-p ... ii-drones/

no desi DDM seems to have followed up the deshgujrat initial report to get into all this detail.

Looks like a pretty serious incursion, it was reportedly downed by a Derby, can't think of any aircraft other than Tejas and retired Sea Harrier which fired Derby, so must be from the Spyder Sam system, while Derby in Sam range is only 15km, against a drone its Range must be 40Km, Nundhatad village 20km away from Naliya airbase. Looks like some deep probe from the Pakis and pretty expensive Drone.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Mar 2019 15:00

where was it written that a derby/python took it down?

imo it was detected on radar at some point and shot by whatever fighter was available for scramble.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 04 Mar 2019 15:02

Singha wrote:Hukum
‏@reachanshul
30m30 minutes ago

The F-16 is known in USAF circles as the “lawn dart” for its tendency to plunge vertically down to Earth on loss of engine power.

The F-16 has been involved in over 650 hull-loss accidents as of June 2016.

650!!!

and this is what the ameriki snake oil salesmen are pushing to sell to India as a miracle cure??

More MiG 21s may suit us better, no??

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 04 Mar 2019 15:04

Singha it has been reported in Some media reports that drone shot down by Spyder SAM system Derby

https://m.dailyhunt.in/news/india/engli ... -109743394

Local police and Army officials were at the spot to examine it, they said. The Pakistani drone was shot down by a 'Derby' missile from Israeli air defence system SPYDER. It was first time, a system like this was used to target enemy aircraft.

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/arti ... ile/372979

The Pakistani drone was shot down using a ‘Derby’ missile of the Israeli air defence system SPYDER. India used this system to target the Pak spy drone.

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/is ... ar-BBU68c4

The drone was brought down in Ambasa village by the Israeli missile Derby, the sources added.

This is the first time that Spyder has been used for taking down any enemy aircraft, they said.

The Spyder defence missile system was deployed for operational role in 2017.

nam · Post by **nam** » 04 Mar 2019 15:04

Pak must have been monitoring any build up in the Marsh area. Pak terror attacks are always around Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb. Snow bound Loc and i think the marsh area is wet due to rains.

So sort of restricts to IB. However there could be areas along Gujarat when an armor offensive can happen, because it might have dried out.

And this area is where they are the weakest. If successful we would be able to dash toward Karachi..their economic lifeline.