2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 14 Apr 2019 04:54

Pratik, MAD don't make deals with anti-nationals. Stop saying they make deals.

RT and his MNS are Sibbal in Maharashtra.

Politics is about power.
Power to do what?
Those who use the power to do public good are remembered and returned to power.

Indian common people understand this very well.
Urban and educated to whom we belong don't understand this.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 14 Apr 2019 04:59

A lot of friends and family from Chattisgarh told me that Raman Singh admin has made life much better for the average person. However after 15 years of BJP rule, enthu of even his supporters had died down a bit plus a lot of people felt that BJP had become arrogant (whatever that means).

There was also the NOTA trick that was employed by Congoons which might have some role to play in this.
This sadly reminds me of how every Rajput clan played the game of upmanship against their own community while nation got ravaged by invaders.

ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 14 Apr 2019 05:04

Vimal,
CG demographics changed and the groups coalition changed. Add to that BJP folks sabotaged themselves using NOTA.
The demographics change is the hurdle to overcome. Will be tackled.

Congress was surprised by CG win.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Apr 2019 05:06

Raman Singh of CG, Shivraj Singh Chauhan of MP, and Adityanath of UP were to be groomed as the next leadership of the BJP.

I don’t know if CG demographics really changed. There has been real progress there, but complacency set in. It is difficult to imagine in this day and age any party being re-elected 4 times in a row. For that reason, India needs two nationalist parties only differing in approach.

If the INC would throw off the Gandhi/Nehru family from its leadership, they would have a chance.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 14 Apr 2019 05:19

A new Gandhi/Nehru gang would takeover that party.
Mahatma knew the inner rot and wanted it dissolved.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 14 Apr 2019 06:07

Cain Marko wrote:You'd think. But the numbers are not looking very good from stricken areas in marsthwada for example. Recent reports state over 200 farmer suicides since January. In many areas such as Solapur water scarcity is a major issue. 2 hours of water supply for the whole week is what I'm hearing. Even Pune has been hit. The satara and baramati area is full of rich farmerd. My understanding is that the government waivers tend to really help these guys a lot more than subsistence Farmers for whom there are fewer options but to get newer loans...

CM saar, I actually do not remember any time that there wasn't farm distress in MH. Some areas like Marathwada are perennially water stressed and we hear of farmer suicides every year. Growing water-intensive crops like Sugarcane compunds this problem in an area which simply does not get too much rainfall even in the best of years. Fadnavis started the Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan for this purpose, which did work to an extent. But unfortunately no government till now including the all-pawarful ones have found a lasting solution to this problem.

As for MNS, RT can bleat all he wants but I do not see how his voter-base, small as it is, will seamlessly move over to INC/NCP. Some will stay home. Others will ignore the latest antics and vote BJP/SS. RT is just coming across as a guy desperate to stay relevant and failing badly at it.

Having said that, the incredible BJP/SS haul in 2014 was probably their high watermark int he state. So some losses are expected. Unfortunately for BJP that is also true in other states like MP,GJ and UP.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby fanne » 14 Apr 2019 06:08

Nehru was the original Manchurian candidate

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 06:39


vijayk
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 07:08

Ravi Kant


@LegalKant
Follow Follow @LegalKant

Sections of French media continues to peddle more rubbish and paid news on #RafaleDeal

Billions worth of taxes were waived for foreign investors in France since Macron took over

Le Monde even speaks the language of Rahul Gandhi by calling Anil Ambani as :close friend: of Modi


Image

Ravi Kant

@LegalKant
16h16 hours ago
More
What's the argument here?

That France made a deal with India to do tax corruption in France?

What Le Monde doesn't tell is the fact that Reliance Atlantic Flag France's tax dispute pertains to 2008 and that they were settled as per legal framework in France.


avi Kant


@LegalKant
16h16 hours ago
More
Such deep are the links between French Newspaper Le Monde and #SamPitroda (advisor of @RahulGandhi) that he was called as "father of India's telecommunications network equipment"


Image

Cain Marko
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Cain Marko » 14 Apr 2019 07:22

nachiket wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:You'd think. But the numbers are not looking very good from stricken areas in marsthwada for example. Recent reports state over 200 farmer suicides since January. In many areas such as Solapur water scarcity is a major issue. 2 hours of water supply for the whole week is what I'm hearing. Even Pune has been hit. The satara and baramati area is full of rich farmerd. My understanding is that the government waivers tend to really help these guys a lot more than subsistence Farmers for whom there are fewer options but to get newer loans...

CM saar, I actually do not remember any time that there wasn't farm distress in MH. Some areas like Marathwada are perennially water stressed and we hear of farmer suicides every year. Growing water-intensive crops like Sugarcane compunds this problem in an area which simply does not get too much rainfall even in the best of years. Fadnavis started the Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan for this purpose, which did work to an extent. But unfortunately no government till now including the all-pawarful ones have found a lasting solution to this problem.

As for MNS, RT can bleat all he wants but I do not see how his voter-base, small as it is, will seamlessly move over to INC/NCP. Some will stay home. Others will ignore the latest antics and vote BJP/SS. RT is just coming across as a guy desperate to stay relevant and failing badly at it.

Having said that, the incredible BJP/SS haul in 2014 was probably their high watermark int he state. So some losses are expected. Unfortunately for BJP that is also true in other states like MP,GJ and UP.

People have short term memory and tend to scrutinize the promises of the incumbent more than others. IIRC bjp was running hard on farmer suicides issue and not much has changed. Another thing about MNS is that Muslims esp. Mumbaikars seem quite sympathetic with his brand...

My guess is that he'll do some damage although not seriously. More than anything else the loss of votes will likely be a reflection of the insane and unmet expectations that people had from modi.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 07:24

Unbelievable how dangerous are these Gandhis, their eco-system, Break India Forces and international left media.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vijayk » 14 Apr 2019 07:47

Making calls to Amethi to vote for Smritiji .. so far so good.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Kakkaji » 14 Apr 2019 08:18

My questions for the Gurus:

What was the polling percentage for Baramula and Bastar? These two were 'security-challenged' constituencies in Phase 1.

In TN, is there an anti-incumbency against AIADMK? Is Jayalalitha's fan-following still with AIADMK, or have her successors squandered her goodwill among her voters?

Are the KA constituencies going to vote in Phase 2, in the strongholds of JDS? How is it shaping up there?

One person I would love to see lose is Mallikarjun Khadge. What are his chances this time?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sridhar K » 14 Apr 2019 08:35

On TN, JJs Goodwill has been lost despite much better governance by EPS due to continuous propaganda by DMk Eco system which is much powerful than even the con eco system in other states. The ADMK cadre votes are split by TTV. My personal estimate is 3-8 seats Max for NDA in TN, primarily from Kongu belt (Coimbatore, Salem etc.)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 14 Apr 2019 08:40

From what I see, people will still vote for AIADMK. I haven't heard from AIADMK voters voting for DMK just because JJ is no more

tushar_m

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby tushar_m » 14 Apr 2019 08:49

In CG there were few problems

1. The manifesto was not as strong as kongress , even BJP's own leadership realize that
2. Few of the ministers were very corrupt & that reflected on Raman singh.
3. The scheme to distribute mobile phones to all was a major disaster ,they should have just gone for loan waivers for farmers .
4. For some reason BJP leadership in CG became overconfident & didn't work so hard.

Some positives for BJP is that even in this less than 100 days of Kongress govt. people are realizing that BJP was better.
Kongress government in CG was taking loans from RBI every 10-15 days which people realize is not good.

Even the hardcore BJP supporters were not that active & thought that BJP will be back without efforts , now they realize that work need to be done & this loksabha election we will see some good work from BJP supporters.

The batch of corrupt ministers which were reflecting poorly on BJP were not provided any loksabha tickets . This created a new batch for BJP where 11 new faces are running for BJP in CG.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 14 Apr 2019 08:59

vimal wrote:A lot of friends and family from Chattisgarh told me that Raman Singh admin has made life much better for the average person. However after 15 years of BJP rule, enthu of even his supporters had died down a bit plus a lot of people felt that BJP had become arrogant (whatever that means).

There is probably a simple explanation: people just wanted a change after 15 years. It happens. Let's see who CG votes for in this GE.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vsunder » 14 Apr 2019 09:14

The reception Shri Modi got at Theni is not surprising. Theni and Bodinayakanur lies at the foot of the Cardamom hills. Cardamom and other forest produce was transported by a MG line to Madurai, rest of India and the world. Then 10 years ago they ripped up the tracks and never provided funds to re-gauge leaving people at the mercy of truck and bus operators to get to distant cities. This has changed with funds and actual track linking with parts of the track at least half way to Theni from Madurai due to be commissioned soon. I had provided pics and status in appropriate threads. People recognize this.

Mangalore is expected. Dakshin Kannada is a land of entrepreneurs and risk takers who have gone to the four corners of the world and excelled. It is amazing how that small strip of coastal land has produced such outstanding people of world class excellence. Many joined technical arms of the IAF, armored regiments etc. They do not want doles, only good corruption free governance. Modi offered them a translator to Kannada but it was refused. People know many languages, they travel to other places and pick up languages and adapt. Shri Modi in turn recalled the rich heritage of Tulunad and it's traditions. In full flow he is an orator hard to beat. He looks tired and has a raspy voice with all that speaking. Mangalore is also the southern most outpost of the kanphata order of the Nath panthis of which Yogi Adityanath is an adherent.
In recent times I do not recall any PM who has been received with such affection in Mangalore and by so immense a crowd.
Last edited by vsunder on 14 Apr 2019 09:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 14 Apr 2019 09:36

He looks tired and has a raspy voice with all that speaking.


He has been fasting the last 9 days...Navaratri.

Thanks for the great update.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 14 Apr 2019 09:37

A blast from past of how Congress tortured Col Purohit

https://www.news18.com/videos/india/wat ... 03889.html

Anyone thinking if supporting UPA should see this and introspect.

Never again.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 14 Apr 2019 09:39

Kakaji, J&K is good.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby OmkarC » 14 Apr 2019 10:36

{Deleted on poster's request}

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jamwal » 14 Apr 2019 11:01

Supratik wrote:Jamwal has his anti-Sikh bias but no that is not the case. The Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists are divided between those that support the nationalists and those that have bought into the C-system propaganda that the RSS is going to finish their separate identity and absorb them into Hindu society. Constitutionally and legally they are already considered Hindu. There is considerable anxiety about this.


WTH is anti sikh bias ? I dislike people who are supremacists and badmouth nation based on secessionist propaganda. Too many Sikhs beleive vehemently that RSS is erasing their religion and are hatefully paranoid against Hindus too. If you can't see it around you, then maybe your circles are not big enough

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shivaji » 14 Apr 2019 11:05

Suraj wrote:The point I’m making overall is that 2010s turnout data far exceeds the long term mean and while it could be explained in facile terms once, it’s harder to understand a second time . Of course most of us might be able to guess why but since that guess is subjective I’ll avoid it .


One possible explanation I can think of is increased penetration of smartphones and social media (whatsapp was launched in India in 2009) in average Indian's life. Come election and voters are continuously reminded for how voting is a sacred duty of every voter.

Indian population is really addicted to Facebook and Whatsapp these days. It is playing a big role in turning Indian population to right of center.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 14 Apr 2019 11:14

Well that hypothesis would have been true if urban voting percentage was in high 80s or low 90s. Bangalore during assembly elections and Hyd last week saw very low turnout.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 14 Apr 2019 11:31

Shivaji wrote:
Suraj wrote:The point I’m making overall is that 2010s turnout data far exceeds the long term mean and while it could be explained in facile terms once, it’s harder to understand a second time . Of course most of us might be able to guess why but since that guess is subjective I’ll avoid it .

One possible explanation I can think of is increased penetration of smartphones and social media (whatsapp was launched in India in 2009) in average Indian's life. Come election and voters are continuously reminded for how voting is a sacred duty of every voter.

Indian population is really addicted to Facebook and Whatsapp these days. It is playing a big role in turning Indian population to right of center.

As I asked fanne about this, does the increase in turnout show in every election - GE, state and municipal ? I posted plenty of data I searched for and reported. 'Possible explanation' is just a guess. I'd like data that proves that all elections have seen a significant increase in turnout far in excess of historical average.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 14 Apr 2019 11:36

Mangaluru man quits job in Australia to vote for PM Narendra ..

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst

The kind of following this man commands is unprecedented.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby DharmaB » 14 Apr 2019 11:51

{Deleted on poster's request}

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 14 Apr 2019 12:15

ramana wrote:A new Gandhi/Nehru gang would takeover that party.
Mahatma knew the inner rot and wanted it dissolved.


+108

The shadowy talons of these hitherto ghostly off shore entities are embedded too deep and they have invested in hundreds of billions since our independence to groom, nurture and empower this G/N gang and prepare the environment to serve their nefarious ends.

If the G/N gang goes and I am sure that they will be ousted soon, another set of goons will take over.

Just see who or which particular group has been at the center of power and has wielded enormous clout within this G/N gang, the baboo(n)s and the judiciary and how this tiny group has always had representation in the SC and ensured it presence irrespective of whose turn it was or which other deserving regions of the country went unrepresented.

This group has been active, entrenched and self perpetuating and always with their grubby hands on with the levers of powers since independence. The next leadership will emerge from within this tiny group.

"Mahatma" was totally aware and willfully complicit and is fundamentally responsible for the launch and perpetuation of this G/N gang. He was the empire's dream of an ideal colonialist, an inspired imperial propagandist rivalling even gobbels in his range and repertoire and a trusted sovereign hitman who was revered by his own victims as the god incarnate.

Today's plodding and deadbeat marketers, pygmy minded toothpaste sellers have much to learn about, and also from, this mans pioneering marketing skills that are somehow never taught in business schools.
Last edited by chetak on 14 Apr 2019 12:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2019 12:16

another interesting handle to follow https://twitter.com/snsachinnandu

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 14 Apr 2019 12:40

Kakkaji wrote:In TN, is there an anti-incumbency against AIADMK? Is Jayalalitha's fan-following still with AIADMK, or have her successors squandered her goodwill among her voters?

Anti-incumbency is not much. The EPS-OPS combine has mostly worked, to everybody's surprise. Having said that, the Jaya factor will not be much as this is not a state election. Similarly, for the Karunanidhi factor.*

Most people have decided one way or the other, and the meme factories have done some damage on behalf of the DMK-Congress combine. However, the NDA with AIADMK in the fold will put up a good fight. Overall, I expect UPA to get around 15 seats out of 39, and the NDA to get the rest. The single Pondicherry seat will also go to UPA.

BJP is contesting in 5 seats, and I expect they'd win at least 2: Kanniyakumari (Pon R) and Coimbatore (CP Radhakrishnan has been a BJP MP from here during NDA-1). They might win Ramanathapuram as well, as Nainar Nagendran is a seasoned and strong local guy and ex-AIADMK to boot. There is a polarization factor here that could sway things toward the NDA. Sivaganga will be interesting - H Raja of the BJP vs. Chiddu's son Karthi. I'd like BJP to win this, but with Congress and DMK combining this time, they will put up a fight. I don't know how the sitting AIADMK MP is perceived here, that could impact the NDA's prospects either way.

Thoothukudi will be an interesting fight. Tamilisai of BJP vs Kanimozhi of DMK will play out here, and caste equations will come into play. Tamilisai will do okay, but Kanimozhi being Karunanidhi's daughter, the DMK will put up a tough fight. Both being Nadars, community support would be crucial. I read elsewhere that the Nadars are polarized between Hindu and Christian parts (about 30% Nadars are Catholics, and the rest staunch Hindus), and Modi has a good image in the Hindu side. The Sterlite issue could have some impact, but how the Nadar community votes will decide this seat. I think Tamilisai will do well, but DMK might end up winning this narrowly.

Another strong community in these parts is of the Devendrakula Vellalars. Their main party, Puthiya Tamizhagam is aligned with NDA, and Modi is well regarded in this community too (this community is also unique in asking for their removal from SC and moved to OBC). There are some Christians here too, but they are smaller in number than in the Nadar community. Net net, I expect PT to win Tenkasi, where this community is more dominant, so that will be another seat for the NDA. Tamilisai would have done better in this seat, but coalition dharma and all that. But the neighbouring Tirunelveli seat would go to the NDA (AIADMK) due to similar factors.

Apart from the above, the western TN (Salem-CBE) belt, also known as Kongu belt, will mostly vote NDA (EPS is from Edappadi, near Salem). Same goes for the deep south - mostly NDA with UPA only in pockets. However, given the almost clean sweep for AIADMK in 2014, they are bound to lose a few seats, particularly near Thanjavur in central TN - Dinakaran's AMMK will cut into their votes and OPS may not be able to counter it much (both are from this region). This apart, the DMK is traditionally stronger in this region.

My final take:
South
KK: NDA (BJP)
Tenkasi: NDA (PT)
Tirunelveli: NDA (AIADMK)
Thoothukudi: likely UPA (DMK), see above.
Virudhunagar: hard to tell
Theni: NDA (AIADMK)
Sivaganga: hard to tell, but I'd say UPA (Congress), see above.
Ramanathapuram: likely NDA (BJP), see above.
Madurai: NDA (AIADMK)
Dindugul: NDA (AIADMK)
--------------
Summary: NDA: 7, UPA: 2, hard to tell: 1

Central
Tiruchi: likely UPA (Congress). DMDK is contesting for NDA here, which indicates AIADMK wasn't sure of winning despite having won the last two consecutive terms. However, this has also voted BJP in the past (R Kumaramangalam), so could end up being too close to call.
Thanjavur: likely UPA (DMK), but AMMK might pull a surprise here.
Nagapattinam: possibly NDA (AIADMK), but AMMK would be a factor here too.
Chidambaram: possibly UPA (VCK), but too close to call.
Cuddalore: NDA (PMK)
Perambalur: UPA (DMK)
Mayiladuthurai: likely UPA (DMK), but AIADMK might retain this seat.
--------------
Summary: NDA: 2, UPA: 4, hard to tell: 1

Kongu
Karur: NDA (AIADMK). This is Thambidurai's (current Dy LS Speaker) stronghold.
Pollachi: NDA (AIADMK). The recent scandal would hurt AIADMK to some extent, but I think they'll squeak through with a reduced margin.
Coimbatore: NDA (BJP)
Nilgiris: possibly NDA, but might swing to UPA. A Raja of 2G fame is contesting from here, and is expected to milk his acquittal. He's represented this seat in the past, so that's another point in his favour.
Tiruppur: NDA (AIADMK)
Erode: NDA (AIADMK)
Salem: NDA (AIADMK) - CM's area, AIADMK will go all out here.
Namakkal: NDA (AIADMK)
--------------
Summary: NDA: 7, UPA: 0, hard to tell: 1

North/North-central:
Dharmapuri: NDA (PMK). Anbumani Ramadoss is contesting from here, so PMK will pull out all stops for a win here.
Krishnagiri: possibly UPA (Congress)
Kallakurichi: not sure, if I were to guess, would say UPA(DMK).
Tiruvannamalai: UPA (DMK)
Arani: UPA (Congress)
Vellore: likely NDA (AIADMK)
Villupuram: likely NDA (PMK), though caste equations could favour UPA (VCK) to some extent.
--------------
Summary: NDA: 3, UPA: 3, hard to tell: 1

Greater Chennai:
Arakkonam: NDA (PMK)
Kanchipuram: NDA (AIADMK)
Sriperumbudur: likely UPA (DMK) as TR Baalu is well regarded as a doer. However, NDA (PMK) has an outside chance as this seat covers several parts of Chennai city with a high proportion of the middle class, where the Modi factor will come into play. But PMK is not regarded that well in urban areas, and will definitely work against the NDA here (I know a lot of people who support Modi here but will hesitate voting for PMK due to their casteist inclinations and might end up sitting out the election). AIADMK would have had a better chance in this seat.
Tiruvallur: NDA (AIADMK)
Chennai (N): UPA (DMK). Generally a DMK stronghold, and AIADMK has won this only once in the 2014 sweep. DMDK contesting for NDA here does not help their chances.
Chennai (C): UPA (DMK). Dayanidhi Maran is contesting from here against a relatively unknown PMK candidate. The former is known as a doer despite everything, and the same anti-PMK factor I mentioned for Sriperumbudur would work against the NDA. Low turnout for sure.
Chennai (S): NDA (AIADMK). This has a bunch of affluent areas, middle class areas, as well as the recently developed 'IT' areas, and Modi has a lot of support here. This is despite the meme generators being mostly from here. I'd say most salaried tax payers are concentrated here, so there is good support for Modi's policies. But I expect turnout to be the lowest in TN, despite which AIADMK will get through. TR Baalu used to win from here by default, but this seat flipped to AIADMK after he moved to Sriperumbudur (see above). Modi has good support here, and his supporters won't mind voting for AIADMK unlike PMK is other neighbouring constituencies. As long as they show up to vote.
--------------
Summary: NDA: 4, UPA: 3, hard to tell: 0

Puducherry (1): AINRC, a breakaway party from the Congress, and currently part of NDA is the incumbent. But generally being a Congress stronghold (they run the state govt), it's hard to tell.

--------------
All TN + PY, nett: Total: 40, NDA: 24, UPA: 11, hard to tell: 5

If all hard-to-tell seats swing to the UPA, they get 16, NDA 24.


* Having discounted the Jaya and MK factor, one has to consider that this is still the first election where neither of them are around. How things will actually play out remains to be seen. There are smaller players like Seeman's NTK and Kamal's MNM, but I don't expect them to have much impact. Between the two, the latter might actually spring a surprise as a "just for a change" vote, but chances of that are low as this is a Parliamentary election. NTK's brand of politics has very few takers except on Facebook, so his gang will poll their usual 2-3% votes. In general, TN folks don't like neither-here-nor-there verdicts, so would decisively vote for one of the two main alliances.

Kakkaji wrote:Are the KA constituencies going to vote in Phase 2, in the strongholds of JDS? How is it shaping up there?

Not all. Mysore's incumbent is Pratap Simha of the BJP. He'll put up a fight. Mandya is interesting with an independent candidate (late actor Ambareesh's wife Sumalatha), against whom only JD(S) is contesting. BJP is not contesting this seat as a favour to Sumalatha and is tacitly supporting her. Another reason for that is that this seat is a prestige issue for JD(S), as HDK's son is contesting from here. Despite the Maddur-Mandya belt being a stronghold for JD(S), there is considerable nervousness in their camp as Sumalatha is well regarded and could actually win. The nervousness is betrayed by the fact that there are 2-3 other candidates named Sumalatha contesting in the same seat, which many regard as a ploy by the JD(S). Also, there is talk that Sumalatha could help the BJP in Mysore as well.

Here's my take for phase 2:
Udupi-Chikkamagalur: NDA (BJP)
Dakshina Kannada: NDA (BJP)
Hassan: UPA (Congress)
Tumkur: UPA (JD(S)) - HDD's seat
Mandya: hard to say, see above.
Mysore: NDA (BJP)
Chamarajanagar: UPA (Congress)
Bangalore (North, Central, South): NDA (BJP)
Kolar: UPA (Congress)
Chitradurga: likely UPA (Congress)

Total: 12, NDA: 6, UPA: 5, 1 too close to call

In phase 3, NDA (BJP) would be a sweep, except in pockets of Hyderabad-Karnataka like Gulbarga, Bellary and Raichur, which have traditionally been Congress strongholds. The coast, Bombay Karnataka and Malnad will surely vote BJP. I'd give the BJP 13/16 in this phase.

All KA, nett: Total: 28, NDA: 19, UPA: 8, too close to call: 1

Some people say NDA in KA is 20+ for sure, and maybe even 22-23. Icing on the cake if that happens.

Kakkaji wrote:One person I would love to see lose is Mallikarjun Khadge. What are his chances this time?

Mallikarjun Kharge is contesting from his current seat at Gulbarga, and is going to polls in phase 3. It's a Congress stronghold afaik, so I expect he'd make it through.

Karthik S
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 14 Apr 2019 13:02

arshyam wrote:Thoothukudi will be an interesting fight. Tamilisai of BJP vs Kanimozhi of DMK will play out here, and caste equations will come into play. Tamilisai will do okay, but Kanimozhi being Karunanidhi's daughter, the DMK will put up a tough fight. Both being Nadars, community support would be crucial.


Shyam, you sure kanimozhi is nadar? First time am seeing that.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 14 Apr 2019 13:35

latest PP/5forty3 article is up, there is considerable OBC support for NDA cutting across party/caste lines.

The OBC factor – phase 1 of 2019 elections reinforces the 2014 OBC shift towards Modi

https://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=225

posting only the final sum-up, phase 1 seat break-up :
(to get the detailed drill down you can subscribe to read on his site)

Code: Select all

NDA INC OTR Probability
 30  05  57   85-87%
 36  03  53   71-74%
 41  02  49   52-54%
 

Supratik
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Supratik » 14 Apr 2019 13:36

PP update. Modi has very strong support among OBCs throughout the electorate. OBCs are nearly 45% and largest block among Hindus after Marathas were added to it.

Ramana, no more on Naidu but my concern is to not leave the field open for EJs.

Added later. see Rahul's post above.

Krita
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Krita » 14 Apr 2019 13:58

Rahul M wrote:latest PP/5forty3 article is up, there is considerable OBC support for NDA cutting across party/caste lines.

The OBC factor – phase 1 of 2019 elections reinforces the 2014 OBC shift towards Modi

https://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=225

posting only the final sum-up, phase 1 seat break-up :
(to get the detailed drill down you can subscribe to read on his site)

Code: Select all

NDA INC OTR Probability
 30  05  57   85-87%
 36  03  53   71-74%
 41  02  49   52-54%
 


Good article from Praveen Patil. I don't mind his paywall since booth level tracking requires large investment hence subscribed. Other good handles to follow are Arvind Barmer, and Savyasachi.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 14 Apr 2019 14:22

Karthik S wrote:
arshyam wrote:Thoothukudi will be an interesting fight. Tamilisai of BJP vs Kanimozhi of DMK will play out here, and caste equations will come into play. Tamilisai will do okay, but Kanimozhi being Karunanidhi's daughter, the DMK will put up a tough fight. Both being Nadars, community support would be crucial.


Shyam, you sure kanimozhi is nadar? First time am seeing that.

I don't know if she claimed it directly, but her mother is Nadar. Her contesting from Thoothukudi only reinforces that as a factor.

Multiple sources speak to this:

https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-d ... cy-2726464
According to sources, DMK president MK Stalin approved his stepsister Kanimozhi's candidature from the southern Tamil Nadu's Thoothukudi Lok Sabha seat with an eye on consolidating the votebank of the influential Nadar community. Kanimozh's mother Rajathiammal belongs to the Nadar community exercises power in the districts of Tuticorin, Tirunelveli and Kanyakumari.


https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/southind ... ar-BBUmrjb
"I have applied to contest from Thoothukkudi Lok Sabha seat. If the party gives me the opportunity, I will definitely enter the fray and win the seat,” Kanimozhi told the media after submitting her application.

A Rajya Sabha member, Kanimozhi’s term comes to an end this June and this is the first time that she is testing the poll waters.

Thoothukudi is a constituency she has nurtured and where the DMK’s women’s face has allocated a lion’s share of the MPLADS resources. More importantly, it is located in a region where the mercantile Nadar community, an OBC caste, is numerically dominant. Her mother Rajathi is from the Nadar community.


https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/d ... olls-93111
Though the speculation is that Kanimozhi could contest from a seat with a considerable Nadar population (her mother Rajathi Ammal belongs to the community), speaking to TNM, senior journalist Kavin Malar reckons that Kanimozhi can also choose a constituency with a high population of marginalised communities.


https://swarajyamag.com/politics/why-th ... o-the-wire
There are two major reasons why Kanimozhi and her party have zeroed in on Thoothukudi, though both are fraught with risks. One is that her mother is from the dominant Nadar community in the region and she has found it convenient to display her maternal connections to the constituency.


https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabh ... 6DsoK.html
Now, in her first ever electoral battle, Kanimozhi has opted for the southern coastal constituency of Thoothukudi.

“Well, it reinforces the view that the realpolitik of Dravidian parties is a cloak to camouflage their accommodation of OBC [other backward class] dominance... Her mother, Rajathi, hails from the mercantile Nadar community, which is numerically dominant in the constituency...,” says C Lakshmanan, an associate professor at the Madras Institute of Development Studies.


https://www.news18.com/news/politics/dm ... 69057.html
The Thoothukudi district has a sizeable presence of the Nadar community and Kanimozhi is expected to have an edge beyond the DMK as she belongs to the community from her mother's side. Soundararajan, who also hails from the same community, is a new contestant in Thoothukudi. Soundararajan has already taken pot-shots at the DMK and Kanimozhi, signalling his intent to get assertive ahead of the polls.


This is also typical of DMK, appearing to be post-caste, but indulging in the same old stuff behind the scenes.

Karthik S
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 14 Apr 2019 14:30

Thanks Shyam.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sridhar K » 14 Apr 2019 14:50

Arshyam, my colleague from Theni who is well connected to the polity there confirms that OPS son will loose as the TTV person is likely to split or even may win. It seems OPS unlike EPS has done nothing for the constituency and people are having the choicest words for OPS. With EPS talking control, OPS is hedging his bets to potentially join DMK if things don't work out.

Similar story for Cuddalore. The PMK candidate is a nobody and the DMk candidate against him is ex PMK who is well regarded. There is split in Vanniyar votes post Kaduvetti Gurus death and anger against Ramadas and co.

For South Chennai,isn't the candidate SR Raja, who is again seen as a doer. Perhaps better regarded in Tambaram than South Chennai. I live near Tambaram and NDA campaign is non existent perhaps being PMK candidate?. DMk and TTV has better campaign

Infer Thukhlaq survey also shows advantage UPA. The one factor that could twist it to what your projection is that people consider that they need to vote for Modi than their traditional party base.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby suryag » 14 Apr 2019 15:14

saw rangaraj Pandey’s analysis seems to be not giving more than 10 seats to NDA because the TTV factor is having a significant impact


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OOX_Ju1H6Oo

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 14 Apr 2019 15:40

Image
Survey:"Favorite political leader in tamilnadu"
Note that Tamil separatist Sebastian Seeman is at 4th at 5.5%

There are many votesplitting parties in TN arrayed against PIF , TTV is one major spoiler aiming to split the traditional AIADMK vote.

Everyone please follow this handle >> https://twitter.com/Ethirajans
Especially RT antiHindu acts of DKgangs in general (& DMK to be specific) he regularly highlights.
The Dravidan coolaid of sickularism is fast loosing credibility, now even antiHindu DMK has to remonstrate that they are not "anti-Hindu" while begging for Hindu votes - akin to Pappu's temple run.




This Tamil Youtube channel by M Maridhas is worth following for a non DK gang perspective on TN
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCN0lfc ... &flow=grid
Last edited by Lilo on 14 Apr 2019 17:19, edited 6 times in total.


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