2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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ramana
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 Apr 2019 01:31

Doc, Tuesday is super Tuesday.
Phase 3.
After that opposition will pack up.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 22 Apr 2019 01:42

thanks ramana sir for reassurance !

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 22 Apr 2019 01:48

Ashokk wrote:Congress In Revolt As Workers Protest Against Shatrughan Sinha's Patna Sahib Candidature Outside Party Headquarters
In visuals, it could be seen how Congress workers were protesting against their own candidate after he reached party headquarters in Patna for being absent during his term from his own sitting constituency. :twisted:


What a joke. Sinha and his wife seem to be absolute idiots with zero political savvy....first Sinha tried to swim against the NaMo tidal wave in BJP (instead of surfing it like everyone else) and failed miserably...and after being ignominiously jettisoned he and his wife have decided to contest for two different alliances and campaign for each other. Dumb and dumber! :lol:

These two dolts are not worth wasting any more comments from me other than the above.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 22 Apr 2019 01:59

IndraD wrote:ground report from UP is that SP-BSP arithmetic vote transfer has not happened at many places.
SP-RLD have transferred votes to BJP candidates at places
Behen ji is fuming and wld avenge in remaining rounds
https://twitter.com/ANINewsUP/status/11 ... 0385266688


I am happy my predictions seem to be coming true.....indeed, getting Yadavas and Jats to vote for a "dalit party" (and vice versa) is a hard sell even in the best of times.

The difficulty of transferring these vote banks is the fundamental reason why SP/BSP/RLD were able to exist as stable/quasi-stable entities in the first place.

Hope this holds for the rest of the election. I think it will, the NaMo Tsunami seems irresistible.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby darshan » 22 Apr 2019 02:19

https://youtu.be/BU3HuIXKdZQ
Another proper summary on how Congress ecosystem works from PM Modi in Anand. Major portion of INC in Gujarat operates out of Anand district.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 Apr 2019 02:21

KLD, Thanks for the last line.
There are two chains/constraints on India.Both reinforce each other.
One external is Pakistan.
Other internal is Congress.

2014 made Congress irrelevant and managed to confine Pakistan to minor irritant.
2019 will definitely get rid of both constraints on India.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 22 Apr 2019 03:23


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIP_CmP ... u.be&t=371
Sister Grace Antony Wife of Anto Antony (Congress MP Pathanamthitta) at Karisma Crusade 2019.
Apparently she is saying "Conversion is divine duty and constitution gives us the right.India should become a Christian nation".
@6:30 in the video she speaks about anticonversion law & BJP govts like those in UP and how Christians "are not free" to convert
Can any Malayali here give a summary of what she is saying in this video?

context
Pathanamthitta is the seat which is on the edge of gettable currently for BJP with K Surendran who led the sabarimala protests & was jailed for 3 weeks contesting from here, this video can shift Hindu votes to BJP away from congress candidate Anto Antony & the upset the current likely victor Veena George of LDF

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 22 Apr 2019 04:05

@ettirankandath AK Antony openly says congi will take support from Left parties. .... a blatant attempt to influence left voters of Kerala in constituencies where BJP is in strong position and ahead of Cong and CPM.
https://twitter.com/ettirankandath/stat ... 4973278208
Image
Daunting task for BJP even in its safe LS seats in Kerala. Reports fm. various quarters including reluctance of RaGa to attack CPM directly makes it clear that there is unholy alliance between both these parties and the agenda is go to any extent to defeat BJP @narendramodi https://twitter.com/ettirankandath/stat ... 6968759302

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 22 Apr 2019 08:19

chetak wrote:The unravelling of India
Gautam Sen, 20-04-2019

“Our actual enemy is not any force exterior to ourselves, but our own crying weaknesses, our cowardice, our selfishness, our hypocrisy, our purblind sentimentalism” Sri Aurobindo

... Alarmingly, an extraordinarily divisive piece of proposed legislation to impose judicial remedy on a whole raft of day-to-day human differences in society that will deepen divisions among Indians along numerous axes, contrived by an Oxford academic, was tabled in the Indian parliament by an especially suspect member.
Guess who is the "especially suspect member" of Parliament who repeatedly tables such incredibly divisive Bills targeting Hindus on behalf of BIF as pointed out Gautam Sen ji?
Yes it is Sunanda ji's suicider pati Shashi Tharoor who is contesting from Thiruvananthapuram tomorrow.

1)Shashi Tharoor introduces Anti-Discrimination & Equality Bill as private member bill in Lok Sabha.

1)This Bill aims to coerce top down diversity on a naturally diverse Indian/Indic society.
2)Creates a "Diversity Index" "Diversity Training" etc as overseen by "Equality Commission" - yes a straight out fascist setup to dominate simple Hindus/Indics with SJWs acting as maibaaps of even private society .
3)Imposes financial/civil penalties on erring private spaces & private groups.
4)Doesnt want the society to naturally negotiate its balance between its diverse groups but wants to impose equity & balance from the top aiming to split the society between privileged vs non-privileged based on subjective criteria as defined by the Equality Commission from time to time (i.e not based on any objective criteria like economic background)

Dr.Tarunabh Khaitan, who is an Associate Professor at Oxford University, U.K., and on whose advice, Tharoor has drafted the Bill, said: “The Bill is an effort to respond, among other events, to Rohith Vemula’s tragic suicide, which has put the need for an antidiscrimination legislation back on the political agenda{as if there are no tragic suicides of students before in India before hain ji?}. India is amongst the few regimes with a constitutional commitment to a liberal democracy that nevertheless lack a comprehensive, multi-ground, antidiscrimination legislation.
2) Sashi Tharoor & KTS Tulsi introduce MaSuKa Bill in Parliament as a private member Bill
....
The Bill was drafted by Tharoor and Tulsi in 2017, with a focus similar to other proposals such as the Manav Suraksha Kanoon(the infamous MaSuKa Bill) drafted by lawyers and activists last year. This includes a focus on ensuring that the police and local administration do more to stop such incidents, and also ensure compensation and protection of victims.

Salient features of @ShashiTharoor 's version of MASUKA bill (anti-Lynching bill) where Hindus are presumed to be guilty against the perennial victimhood of mainorities.Note the new offence of "creating a hostile environment for the mainorities" as envisioned by Shashi Tharoor & foisted on the Hindus.
Image
Image

Why does Shashi Tharoor hate Hindu's so much as to want to subject them to a state mandated straightjacket using the mainority pasand Bills like MaSuKa Bill & the ironically named Anti-Discrimination & Equality Bill which clearly aims to discriminate the majority to propitiate the mainority ?

Can the Hindu voters voting in Thiruvananthapuram tomorrow give a resounding answer to this question ?
Last edited by Lilo on 22 Apr 2019 09:02, edited 10 times in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 Apr 2019 08:27

reading the points, this proposal can be used to blame anyone for anything. even me taking away the TV remote control from my child is "creating a hostile environment". anyone can be victimized.

the asuric forces within india have deep control networks stretching back to numerous foreign academics & media who themselves are the front end of more shadowy financial, evangelical, jihadi, sinic interests. dig below the surface and the real masterminds are sitting in DC, london, peking, riyadh, rome, islamabad...

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 Apr 2019 08:33

This is a full blown attempt to muzzle free speech and impose hinduphobic laws on an already suppressed population. Tharoor should have really been taken to task over the Sunanda Pushkar episode, yet Modi and co let him slide. Prithviraj Chauhan syndrome.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Prasad » 22 Apr 2019 09:40

Hello that equality law has the IOI rider - does not apply to minorities account to article 25 26 29 30 of the constitution because they have to safeguard their religion & practices. So guess who this bill apply to exclusively? IOI targets yindoos & yindoos alone.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 Apr 2019 09:52

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/m ... ctor-48077

Image

urban naxals went after ret Gen G D Bakshi for a patriotic speech he made in IITM.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muns » 22 Apr 2019 10:09

JE Menon wrote:Hello people,

I've got an article out on Opindia which looks at the parallel with the emergence/spread of Christianity in Europe and comparing it with the situation in India today as we head into a crucial election from an historic perspective. There are many underlying currents which people will sense and recognise while reading the article, while I have not explicitly stated them. That was my intention, to make people think.

I know it is tacky to ask for tweeting, facebooking, and spreading by any means necessary within your networks, but I'm still asking because I truly believe that we are at a civilizational inflextion point. So please read it, and please spread it.

https://www.opindia.com/2019/04/indias- ... ilisation/


Jem, as usual a gem of an article. One thing to my mind about reading about this time and doing the same parallel to today's time, was that simply this became a matter of economics. A few years ago, I read the book Pagans and Christians, by Robin Lane Fox. It's been a few years since I wrote the article below, but the will number one thing that has stuck with me for all of that time is that the reason why it seems there was such a drastic fallout of Roman religion at the time was that simply Constantine shut off all funding to Roman temples at the time. Starved of central funds while Christian churches availed a sudden influx of wealth and building, the Roman gods to an extent couldn't compete with this new influx of propaganda from all quarters especially funded by Constantine himself. Over the next couple of centuries, of course fighting not only an idea but mass conversions and violence against themselves Roman, Greek and Celtic religions naturally died.

Now I think of the same thing when it comes to Mandirs and the lack of funding. Not only that but the diversion of money from Mandirs to fund building of Churches and Masjids, really sound the death Knell. We will be releasing a video on this issue soon. Its already in the works.

http://sanchitakarma.blogspot.com/2015/ ... -wolf.html

Maybe time for me to rework that article for India Aware.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 Apr 2019 10:12

https://www.garudabooks.com/hindu-terro ... e-affairs/

The Myth of Hindu Terror: Insider Account of Ministry of Home Affairs
RVS Mani
Hindu Terror: Insider account of Ministry of Home Affairs is a recommended read for both laymen and experts who want to get a first-hand account of, among other things, how common political interference is in matters of national security.

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 Apr 2019 10:57

Singha wrote:reading the points, this proposal can be used to blame anyone for anything. even me taking away the TV remote control from my child is "creating a hostile environment". anyone can be victimized.

the asuric forces within india have deep control networks stretching back to numerous foreign academics & media who themselves are the front end of more shadowy financial, evangelical, jihadi, sinic interests. dig below the surface and the real masterminds are sitting in DC, london, peking, riyadh, rome, islamabad...


That is exactly what the BIF want. Total control over the passive Hindus, dish out exemplary punishments for "troublemaking" outliers and the unhindered freedom to run their venal agenda all the while counting on the Hindu apathy and their extreme reluctance to cause offence, even when they themselves are in an existential crisis, all the while secularly "protecting" the already pampered "minorities".

What was the purpose and intent of the communal violence bill?? They were going to use the majority Hindus to vote into law a stratagem devised to bring about the assured downfall of the said Hindu populace and the "secular" Hindus either cheered them on or numbly watched from the sidelines like deer frozen in the headlights of a speeding oncoming truck headed straight for them.

tharoor is glib, well spoken in english with a linguistic virtuosity that cannot but be admired by the foolish cud chewing middle classes all aspiring to ape the mannerisms of this BIF trojan horse and aspiring to see their offspring do the same.

the other is an out and out separatist khalistani fundamentalist, not surprisingly propped up, and given a voice in the Indian parliament, by the congis whose top echelon of leadership is overwhelmingly non nationalistic and deeply embedded in the BIF ethos. The suborned judiciary is right up there with them, like willing handmaidens chosen to help the highpriests in their sacrificial rites.

why exactly have we allowed goras to once again take charge of the body politic in India?? the current crop of the congi supreme leadership all have copious quantities of white blood in them. Is this what we deserve after we managed to boot the britshits out, and the mahatma who got us the freedom was not the ersatz colonial stretcher bearer clown MKG but the much feared (by the britshits) SCB.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 Apr 2019 11:01

Bottomline, elite Hindus are cowards and rest of them up are caught up with infighting over caste, a house divided..nothing seems to have changed since the days of the Afghans seeing multiple scattered Rajput campfires..:-(

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Hari Seldon » 22 Apr 2019 11:04

^ A law is needed specifically to weed out foreign funding and other ways of influencing Indian polity and lawmaking.

There're ready templates available. In Russia for example, anyone partaking of foreign funds in any form and having anything to do with the govt sector has to register as a "foreign agent". Period. We can have a more diplomatic version of the same law, for starters.

The influx of frod fundation, soros monies etc targettedly at staffers in the SC and parliament is beyond worrisome. Only.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 Apr 2019 11:11

Muns wrote:
JE Menon wrote:Hello people,

I've got an article out on Opindia which looks at the parallel with the emergence/spread of Christianity in Europe and comparing it with the situation in India today as we head into a crucial election from an historic perspective. There are many underlying currents which people will sense and recognise while reading the article, while I have not explicitly stated them. That was my intention, to make people think.

I know it is tacky to ask for tweeting, facebooking, and spreading by any means necessary within your networks, but I'm still asking because I truly believe that we are at a civilizational inflextion point. So please read it, and please spread it.

https://www.opindia.com/2019/04/indias- ... ilisation/


Jem, as usual a gem of an article. One thing to my mind about reading about this time and doing the same parallel to today's time, was that simply this became a matter of economics. A few years ago, I read the book Pagans and Christians, by Robin Lane Fox. It's been a few years since I wrote the article below, but the will number one thing that has stuck with me for all of that time is that the reason why it seems there was such a drastic fallout of Roman religion at the time was that simply Constantine shut off all funding to Roman temples at the time. Starved of central funds while Christian churches availed a sudden influx of wealth and building, the Roman gods to an extent couldn't compete with this new influx of propaganda from all quarters especially funded by Constantine himself. Over the next couple of centuries, of course fighting not only an idea but mass conversions and violence against themselves Roman, Greek and Celtic religions naturally died.

Now I think of the same thing when it comes to Mandirs and the lack of funding. Not only that but the diversion of money from Mandirs to fund building of Churches and Masjids, really sound the death Knell. We will be releasing a video on this issue soon. Its already in the works.

http://sanchitakarma.blogspot.com/2015/ ... -wolf.html

Maybe time for me to rework that article for India Aware.


Isn't it exactly what the britshits and the then GoI did by ensuring govt control over Hindu temples and religious Institutions via The Hindu Religious And Charitable Endowment Act. ... In 1925, the Madras Hindu Religious Endowments Act, 1923 (Act I of 1925) which is in force in some form or the other even today??

we know all too well how these collected monies are being (mis)used by the seculars.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muns » 22 Apr 2019 11:38

Guys, if anything about the Sri Lanka attacks have shown us, it shows that radical Islamism although hit hard by Modi, will not keep its Hydra head down. A few months ago, Nirmala Sitharaman might've mentioned that they have been hardly any radical attacks in the cities and Hinterland since Modi took control. However it seems that the staged multi attack like what we saw in Sri Lanka could well happen in Muslim majority states such as J&K and unfortunately now Kerala. We have taken to try and show the last couple of years with regard to Kerala since the elections really are in the next day. With this in mind, we have interviewed Mr Sreedattan who is quite knowledgeable being from Kerala himself to really try and sum up the last few years with regard to the radicalization ongoing in Kerala.
The interview has been broken up into three parts, so that the viewer engagement hopefully will be still ongoing.

In the first part, we talk about Kerala, being the land of Adi Shankaracharya who really changed the thought process all over India. Thereafter the rise and growth of radical Islamism in Kerala to the point of whole families of Hindus and even Christians converting and traveling to Syria to join Isis. Even a talk of converts of Keralites in the gulf... Including wives who have become couriers for Isis agents.
We then talk about, the prominence of love jihad in Kerala.

Part two deals with more of the CPM goons especially in Kannur district or that have taken to violent and brutal attacks of macheting BJP and RSS workers. It also towards the end asks the question regarding the Christian nexus, including the recent news of the last few years with regard to the church scam of Bishops repeatedly taken advantage of nuns. I did try to raise the question of conversion with regard to Christians however it seems that this is not so much as Keralite phenomenon anymore as opposed to Kerala trained Clergy now traveling to other parts of India including Nepal in increasing conversion.

Part three really deals with BJP's chances in Kerala, with regard to which seats the have more prominence. This includes BJP's arise secondarily because in part of supporting the Sabarimala issue.

I've tried to sum up the videos as above. I'm hoping that with elections in a day that some of the message get across. We are trying to hit hard across the team. Take a look at the channel as we seem to be releasing videos in a much more regular basis that I can post here on BR.
I also have in control two Facebook groups with around 4 lakh reach. This includes the vote for Modi group around 300K members and also the Vote for Yogi group with around 100k members. If you can join the groups and see if you can contribute social media wise towards making our voice (all of us here on BR ) heard. Jai Hind! It is war of a different footing now.

We always appreciate any feedback ;



http://www.india-aware.com

http://www.youtube.com/c/indiaaware

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Muns » 22 Apr 2019 12:09

chetak wrote:
Muns wrote:
Jem, as usual a gem of an article. One thing to my mind about reading about this time and doing the same parallel to today's time, was that simply this became a matter of economics. A few years ago, I read the book Pagans and Christians, by Robin Lane Fox. It's been a few years since I wrote the article below, but the will number one thing that has stuck with me for all of that time is that the reason why it seems there was such a drastic fallout of Roman religion at the time was that simply Constantine shut off all funding to Roman temples at the time. Starved of central funds while Christian churches availed a sudden influx of wealth and building, the Roman gods to an extent couldn't compete with this new influx of propaganda from all quarters especially funded by Constantine himself. Over the next couple of centuries, of course fighting not only an idea but mass conversions and violence against themselves Roman, Greek and Celtic religions naturally died.

Now I think of the same thing when it comes to Mandirs and the lack of funding. Not only that but the diversion of money from Mandirs to fund building of Churches and Masjids, really sound the death Knell. We will be releasing a video on this issue soon. Its already in the works.

http://sanchitakarma.blogspot.com/2015/ ... -wolf.html

Maybe time for me to rework that article for India Aware.


Isn't it exactly what the britshits and the then GoI did by ensuring govt control over Hindu temples and religious Institutions via The Hindu Religious And Charitable Endowment Act. ... In 1925, the Madras Hindu Religious Endowments Act, 1923 (Act I of 1925) which is in force in some form or the other even today??

we know all too well how these collected monies are being (mis)used by the seculars.


Exactly that Chetak, exactly that. It's all a matter of pure funding and money. How else can some camel riding nomads just over a half-century ago, such as the Al Saud family, not only name the whole peninsula after their family, but also fund the growth of hundreds if not thousands of Madrassahs the world over, including in our own backyard now terrorizing us.
To that effect, change our own government and then slowly cut off any kind of support to the institutions that really make up India. Without those institutions/matths India as we know it would cease to exist. Let the Mandirs die of from age and wear. We would basically become like Sindhis.... HIndus without a nation.


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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby banrjeer » 22 Apr 2019 13:03

@nachiketa mentioned a dose of hindutva as needed in WB.

It's not enough. Actually it's inadequate for India. A less overt and strategic path is needed. Hindus are reactionary and waste effort on symbolic victories with no long term gain Ram temple, Sabarimala

The subcontinent has 900 mill hindus and 600 mill odd muslims and other minorities who are indoctrinated and well arrayed against the so called majority . They are buoyed by insiders, allies in western academia and pop culture ( look at the opening scenes of two unconnected films ...slum dog and hundred foot journey ). They have have long standing funded activities to erode away dignity, dehumanize and of course terror.

If you look at liberation of Bangladesh wiki it seems as if the sacrifices of Indian forces were incidental. Magnanimity is not recognized as such and is not understood.

We cannot counter this by being hapless idiots. Also Namo is not a miracle cure, he can do a bit.

As a brand Bharat Mata has been more effective than hindutva. From that comical TMC campaign video from WB, Aadhar card seems to have acquired a good branding

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 22 Apr 2019 13:15



What about those pidis high on pappu mutra who added "chowkidar chor hai" in the handles?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Vikas » 22 Apr 2019 13:19

Proudly paid to OpIndia media for the great service they are offering to Hindu cause.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby varshar » 22 Apr 2019 14:00

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 22 Apr 2019 14:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Poster banned for posting the same thing previously warned for.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 22 Apr 2019 16:11

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/one-strike-or-two-will-not-change-pakistan-lt-gen-ds-hooda/761698.html

Former Union Home Minister P Chidambaram, who was present at the discussion, said, “War is not an option. We build armies to not win a war but avoid a war. We must find a way to normalise relations with Pakistan. If we need to change behaviour of Pakistan we need to change our behaviour towards them.” If we both demonise each other we can never put an end to these killings or infiltrations, he said.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Apr 2019 17:12

O! I c what happened.

"My statement was made in the heat of political campaigning .. my political opponents wrongly projected that I had deliberately .. NOTHING COULD BE FARTHER FROM MY MIND.


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst

Small correction:

NOTHING FILLS HIS MIND, FROM EAR TO EAR.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 22 Apr 2019 17:16

What Chidambaram meant:
We build armies to not win a war but avoid a war by running away and hiding, while we profit from the arms deals.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 22 Apr 2019 17:21

Singha wrote:https://www.garudabooks.com/hindu-terror-insider-account-of-ministry-of-home-affairs/

The Myth of Hindu Terror: Insider Account of Ministry of Home Affairs
RVS Mani
Hindu Terror: Insider account of Ministry of Home Affairs is a recommended read for both laymen and experts who want to get a first-hand account of, among other things, how common political interference is in matters of national security.

Image


Singha ji, a small story by you based on a future scenario where Masuka is implemented and how it's used to destroy few Hindu characters, would go a long way to educate masses; who don't usually like to read long complicated legal terms peppered articles.
_/\_

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Primus » 22 Apr 2019 18:08

Vikas wrote:Proudly paid to OpIndia media for the great service they are offering to Hindu cause.


Thank you for posting this. Did not realize one could support them, I just did too. We need as many such outlets as we can have. There are too many enemies lined up against us.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby JE Menon » 22 Apr 2019 18:18

Muns I will reply to you in the Christianity and Evangelism thread

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sanju » 22 Apr 2019 18:22

ramana wrote:We should lobby for his being awarded Ashoka Chakra.


If you were referring to the late brave Omble ji, it was awarded posthumously.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Vikas » 22 Apr 2019 18:22

Primus wrote:
Vikas wrote:Proudly paid to OpIndia media for the great service they are offering to Hindu cause.


Thank you for posting this. Did not realize one could support them, I just did too. We need as many such outlets as we can have. There are too many enemies lined up against us.


Now that the battle lines have been drawn, We arm chair warriors can atleast support those who keep fighting.
Thank you to all BRF posters who always have spoken about supporting the Indic causes.
Now back to regular transmission.

PM Modi's comment about Nukes 'not for Diwali sale' have caused burnool moment to all the Commi-Paki-Khangressi ecosystem. From Guha to Mufit, everyone is doing a Rudali act. Imagine if the time comes when India actually has to pre-emptively use the Nukes against Yahoos. A weaker vote conscience govt would probably let the Indians die instead of pressing the button.
Now expect Bakis to test a Green painted Chinese missile to prove their manhood which is nook-nood.

Lilo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4060
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Lilo » 22 Apr 2019 18:24

This guy in this tweet summarized it well.
Last 7 days in Odisha:

1. BJP leader was shot dead in Khordha

2. 32 Yr old BJP worker beaten to death by BJD partymen in Ganjam

3. Bombs hurled at BJP leader's vehicle in Bhubaneswar

4. 3 members of a family were attacked with sharp weapons in Kendrapara for attending a BJP rally

Now, Democracy not in danger
https://twitter.com/AskAnshul/status/11 ... 8481855489

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rahul ji apologises to Supreme court for claiming that "Supreme court also accepted that Chowkidar Chor hai"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEw1ojBO6aM

Shanmukh
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 22 Apr 2019 19:51

ramana wrote:I have a Satta Bazaar estimate putting 299/350 for BJP/NDA. It's in Hindi.

भाजपा.         = 299
सहयोगी।       =    51
*एनडीए -     = 350*

*महाराष्ट्र (48)*
= भाजपा -25 सहयोगी -16
*गुजरात (26)*
= बीजेपी -26
*मध्य प्रदेश (29)*
= भाजपा -25
*राजस्थान - (25)*
= बीजेपी -22
*पंजाब (13)*
= भाजपा- 4 सहयोगी -2
*हरियाणा (10)*
= भाजपा - 9
*जम्मू और कश्मीर - (6)*
= भाजपा -3
*उत्तराखंड (5)*
= भाजपा -3
*हिमाचल प्रदेश (4)*
= भाजपा -3
*दिल्ली (7)*
= भाजपा - 7
*उत्तर प्रदेश (80)*
= भाजपा -61 सहयोगी -5
*बिहार (40)*
= भाजपा - 16 सहयोगी -14
*तमिलनाडु (39)*
= भाजपा -4 सहयोगी- 13
*कर्नाटक (28)*
= भाजपा - 16
*आंध्र प्रदेश - (25)*
= भाजपा -2
*तेलंगाना (17)*
= भाजपा -2
*केरल (20)*
= भाजपा -5
*असम (14)*
= भाजपा- 8
*उत्तर-पूर्व (11)*
= भाजपा - 5 सहयोगी -2
*ओरिसा (21)*
= भाजपा -13
*छत्तीसगढ़ (11)*
= भाजपा - 7
*झारखंड (14)*
= भाजपा - 9
*पश्चिम बंगाल (42)*
= बीजेपी -22
*गोवा (2)*
= भाजपा - 2
*अन्य केंद्र शाशित प्रदेश (6)*
= भाजपा -4

*कांग्रेस प्रेजिडेंट राहुल गांधी अमेठी-उत्तरप्रदेश और वायनाड-केरल से हार सकते है।*

*कांग्रेस पार्टी को 2019 के लोकसभा चुनाव में भी बाद लोकसभा में विपक्ष पार्टी बनने के मौका नही मिलेगा, कांग्रेस को कम से कम 55 सांसद सीटों की तुलना में कम जीत हासिल हो सकती है, जिससे विपक्ष के नेता के रूप में पहचाना जाना चाहिए।*


Some of the numbers seem to be very optimistic to me and some are misplaced. For instance, in Punjab, BJP is given as 4, and its allies (SAD) 2. BJP contests only 3 seats in Punjab, so I am guessing that the author meant that BJP is 2, SAD is 4 [this is extremely optimistic for this time]. BJP getting 2 seats in AP and 2 seats in Telangana is also hyper-optimistic, and 5 in Kerala is just beyond belief. The others are also on the optimistic side.

Basically, it is going to come down to this. BJP will lose ~50 seats [at least] of the 282 seats they won last time. Can they make it up elsewhere? They had basically maxed out in the North and West in 2014.

Their base in Kerala is too low to start yielding good number of seats [they may pick up 2 seats this time - this is the best hope] and they will get somewhere between 20 and 25% vote [but this is the beginning of the end of the Left in Kerala, so Kerala is promising for the future for BJP].

In Karnataka, the arithmetic in old Mysore, where they have to win in order to improve from their 2014 tally, is too skewed against them for the moment. Yes, BJP has made inroads, but the starting numbers were like 20-30% for BJP vs 50-60% for JD(S)+Congress after 2018 Assembly polls. It is a bit hard to make up this kind of margin in such a short time. Again, promising for the future, but not clear it will pay off immediate dividends.

BJP has basically made no inroads in either Telangana or Andhra. In fact, I will be surprised if BJP gets back its deposit in any of the 25 seats in AP. Even Puran and Kanna are getting nowhere. In Telangana, outside Secunderabad and Mahabubnagar, BJP is not even in the contest anywhere. In TN, BJP+ may net some seats, but BJP is contesting only 5 seats and is in the contest in only 3 of them [they are not going to win either Thoothukudi, or Sivagangai]. So, the maximum that BJP can gain is going to be 2 seats [even that would be a phenomenal achievement, given how hard it is for Ponnar to retain Kanyakumari this time].

The best chances are in Bengal, Odisha and NE. They had 2/42 in Bengal, 1/21 in Odisha and 8/25 in NE.

In NE, BJP [not NDA] can forget the 2 seats in Meghalaya, 1 seat in Mizoram, 1 in Manipur, and 1 in Nagaland - these are purely Christian and BJP is not even contesting most of them. In Assam, 3 of the 14 seats are Muslim majority, so they can forget them, and in 2 more, BJP allies are contesting. That leaves 9 in Assam, 2 in Arunachal, 2 in Tripura, and 1/2 in Manipur [A BJP ally is contesting the lone seat in Sikkim]. In fact, out of the 14 seats in NE where the BJP had a chance, they had already won 8. Max. gain = 5

It comes down to Odisha and Bengal then.
In Odisha, their voteshare was ~22% in 2014, compared to the ~45% for the BJD. But they had made great progress in the Panchayat elections, so I am not ruling out BJP crossing 10 seats in Odisha. The reason is again that the BJP vote is concentrated in the tribal districts of the west, and they are weak in the coastal districts. They will make progress in the coastal districts, but it may be hard for them to convert their gains in voteshare to seats this time. Overall, BJP may gain ~10 seats in Odisha.

In Bengal, they had 17% vote compared to 39% for the TMC and 29% for the Left in 2014. BJP voteshare has been around 25% in the bypolls that have been held, compared to the ~50% vote for the TMC. But in this polls, I don't think the TMC will cross 40%, and so, the BJP with at least 30% vote [and its vote is concentrated in the tribal districts of the North and West], will make some significant inroads. If they had pushed through the CAB, they would have netted some more vote in eastern districts on the Bangladesh border where there are huge numbers of Bangals, but now, these votes are going to be a bit iffy, particularly given the low organisational strength of the BJP. But all in all, it is in Bengal that BJP can expect to gain the most. How many BJP will win is impossible to say, but they will get to ~10 seats at least. More than this will be a bonus.

So it all adds up to a loss of ~20-30 seats at least. I am not sure how they can make up for this elsewhere. This is assuming that the UP results go well for BJP and it does not lose >15 seats. This is a very hard bit to predict, given that the Mahagatbandhan is fighting for its life and some of the economic issues for farmers are going to play a bit of spoilsport in at least W UP. If BJP makes it to 250, it will be an excellent achievement this time.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 23 Apr 2019 02:43, edited 1 time in total.

Rahul M
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rahul M » 22 Apr 2019 20:56

Shanmukh wrote:Basically, it is going to come down to this. BJP will lose ~50 seats [at least] of the 282 seats they won last time.

and
This is assuming that the UP results go well for BJP and it does not lose >15 seats.


seem to be mutually contradictory. you have given a break-up for possible seats in S, E & NE but not for the 50 seats that its supposed to lose.
you are saying BJP will lose 35+ seats from MP, RJ GJ, HR, PB, HP, UK & JK ?

Shanmukh
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shanmukh » 22 Apr 2019 21:12

Rahul M wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:Basically, it is going to come down to this. BJP will lose ~50 seats [at least] of the 282 seats they won last time.

and
This is assuming that the UP results go well for BJP and it does not lose >15 seats.


seem to be mutually contradictory. you have given a break-up for possible seats in S, E & NE but not for the 50 seats that its supposed to lose.
you are saying BJP will lose 35+ seats from MP, RJ GJ, HR, PB, HP, UK & JK ?


In 2014, BJP won 25/25 in Rajasthan. This time it is likely to be 18-20.
In 2014, BJP won 26/26 in Gujarat. This time it is likey to be 22-23.
In 2014, BJP won 22/40 in Bihar. This time, they are contesting only 17, and are likely to win 14-15.
In 2014, BJP won 23/48 in Maharashtra. This time, it is likely to be 18-19.
In 2014, BJP won 10/11 in Chhattisgarh. This time it is likely to be 3-4.
In 2014, BJP won 12/14 in Jharkhand. This time, it is likely to be 7-8.
In 2014, BJP won 27/29 in Madhya Pradesh. This time it is likely to be 22-23.

This itself adds up to ~35 seats on average. Of course, they are unlikely to win both in Goa, or win all 5 in Uttarakhand, 4 in Himachal, 2/3 in Punjab, etc. So, my loss of ~35 seats in the rest of India is rather conservative.

IndraD
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby IndraD » 22 Apr 2019 21:28

can this be atoned with gains in Bengal, Odisha, South India & NE?

KLNMurthy
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KLNMurthy » 22 Apr 2019 21:42

Karan M wrote:Bottomline, elite Hindus are cowards and rest of them up are caught up with infighting over caste, a house divided..nothing seems to have changed since the days of the Afghans seeing multiple scattered Rajput campfires..:-(

Serious question: you say nothing has changed. Did they also have a BRF in those days?


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