2019 General Elections News and Discussion

[rgosain]

Suraj, I didn't say they were accurate, but they and others like them are part of the deep state in the west and their use in the Indian setting to slice and dice populations is remisniscent of the way the Raj divided and ruled. The others who do so are the Ford foundations and the vatican with the clear aim of unseating the GOI and creating a pliable coalition ruled by a non-entity.

The coordinated and systematic attacks on the cji and sc is redolent of the manner in which governments in guyana, fiji and suriname were brought down in the past by western entities. These are usually followed by strikes and street violence.

Hence i was trying to apply a bayesian model that failed because of the lack of decent prior probs.

[disha]

50 % in Mumbai North West by 5 pm.

I will call all 5 seats in Mumbai in NDA category based on above. Only discussion should be margin of victory.

[Sanju]

Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario.
This is based upon nightmare of 2004.
What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. After all who doesn't love a weak govt and opportunity to mint some money. So before we start celebrating Mr. PP, lets wait till 23rd May.
Hindus generally have not been very fortunate in the matters of Hindwi rulers.
I personally don't think NDA will do far better than last time. Maybe a 5%-7% jump in seats at the most. Don't forget last time, C-system had no idea of the hurricane they were flying into and got decimated. This time they are better prepared thanks to demographics.
There is a Modi wave no doubt but Tsunami, naaahhh!!

Good points, au contraire,
1) Modiji was not the PM,
2) C-System had their grubby fingers on nearly every leverage of power
3) Modiji was an unknown quantity on the National Stage
4) Being the PM now, Modiji and team knows the inner Pakistaniyat of the C-System and the workings of the government and is even better prepared than last time to take on the C-Sytem
5) Modji has a proven track record for himself and his team
6) Capturing Lal Qila in 2014 was an offensive, this time Modiji is defending and defending a strong fort is comparatively easier.

Like I had written previously, unlike in 2004 when BJP/NDA won the 3 (CHT, RJ & MP) state elections in 2003, leading to a sense of complacency and the subsequent loss in 2004, the loss of the 3 states in 2018 has jolted the party and i believe that 2019 GE result will have Modiji coming back again as the PM.

[sudeepj]

Rampur is near Muslim majority [49% Muslim]. All he needs is 1% of the votes to transfer to win.

How many of them are Shia? How many Sunnis has Azam Khan pissed off by his high handed methods? Does he face a strong vote-katwa? How well funded is his opponent?

All this population level analysis shows is that you can do algebra at second grade. If all he needed was 1% votes from Hindus, why did he lose in 14? More than 1% Hindus cross voted in 14 too..

[sudeepj]

Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario.
This is based upon nightmare of 2004.
What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. After all who doesn't love a weak govt and opportunity to mint some money. So before we start celebrating Mr. PP, lets wait till 23rd May.
Hindus generally have not been very fortunate in the matters of Hindwi rulers.
I personally don't think NDA will do far better than last time. Maybe a 5%-7% jump in seats at the most. Don't forget last time, C-system had no idea of the hurricane they were flying into and got decimated. This time they are better prepared thanks to demographics.
There is a Modi wave no doubt but Tsunami, naaahhh!!

JDU, Akali Dal, Shiv Sena wont because they are state parties and they are relevant in the state only in combination with the BJP.. Other than that, its a mugs game.

[ShyamSP]

Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!

What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

Fresh stock from AF and Himalayan region . NDA is still shy of majority except when a few more outside support parties added. 160 left to stretch its numbers to hit that magic figure. Now on elections are mostly in BJP terrority - https://eci.gov.in/img/ge14-schedule1.jpg. Any thing that affects BJP will affect its numbers. If SP&BSP manage transfer of votes cleanly, BJP will be affected but that needs to be seen. Unusual calm is there in SP-BSP on public messaging, which should be worry. INC propaganda channel is putting things like this - https://thewire.in/politics/uttar-prade ... sp-bsp-rld

[Lilo]

And Cambridge Analytica is accurate because ?

It tipped the elections in MP , KA & Rajasthan at mindbogglingly close number of few thousands of votes.
It has the big data of silicon valley tech giants sourced in realtime for election trend analysis & action.

Micromanaging the election to shift few thousand votes in each constituency is its forte .

Leave alone PIF , in the whole election arena no other Indian player can come close to their level of targeted interventions on undecided voters who vote influenced based on SM & media talking points.

Case study MP:
>Our BIF controlled SC just before 3 state election suddenly passes a judgement junking provisions of the SC/ST atrocity Act citing a court nephew's PIL effectively taking out its bite.
>NaMo/BJP are forced to hurriedly pass a law to restore status quo ante.
>That new law passed coupled with lack of upper caste reservations(with caste uprisings in tow) are drummed up both in SM & media & BJP is demonized as being anti-"savarna" with targeted pro NOTA & proCongie interventions by CA system.
>Viola! the biggest state has now passed into congie(BIF) hands with a margin of few thousand votes!

Unless there is an overwhelming deluge of votes for PIF side, i already started with the assumption that this election was already stolen - to affect a weak verdict of BJP breaking down at some 220-230 mark.
Then the globalist gang will discredit PIF(Modi/NDA) forcing 5 years of a weak ineffective role (while making sure this cycle of Hindutva upsurge is discredited & deflated by imposing crisis after crisis on a weak govt) while prepping RaGa & his globalist backed congie gang for another epoch of congie rule using unassailable demographics of illegals & mainorities in 2024.

PS: This pertains to foreign interventions by CA & any other avatars of it in the hands of globalists.

[Supratik]

This election may mark the end of communism in India. I expect the remaining left cadre to start joining other enterprises like INC, AAP, etc and various anti-development NGOs and entities like Greens.

[Suraj]

Suraj, I didn't say they were accurate, but they and others like them are part of the deep state in the west and their use in the Indian setting to slice and dice populations is remisniscent of the way the Raj divided and ruled. The others who do so are the Ford foundations and the vatican with the clear aim of unseating the GOI and creating a pliable coalition ruled by a non-entity.

I'm sorry but there's nothing special in any of this. The entire basis of parties like SP, BSP and RJD in neighboring Bihar is a result of their respective leaders and party apparatus having a very finely attuned grasp of caste dynamics and how to maximize them, by cultivating specific localized caste permutations on a seat basis.

Their experience at this far exceeds the capability of some now defunct company in London most well known for pilfering Facebook accounts. Cambridge Analytica has no sustained record of having accomplished anything meaningful, other than get itself liquidated for gross misuse of private data. It's also worth noting that it is public knowledge that both the BJP and INC have been their clients at various times, and they've been involved in voter analysis since the early 2000s in India, through at least half a dozen elections.

Generally, dropping names and implying some consequence due to their past presence, is not helpful. They did some cool technological big data sh*t, sure. But that's all. They also demonstrated incredibly poor data management capabilities, and were driven out of business because of it. That does not say much about their competence, for all their lawyers and wizard types supposedly running the show there.

[disha]

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

Doubt that!

15-20% of the Jaatav votes will not go to Yadav and 20-25% of Yadav votes will not go to Jaatav. Just a decade back they were at each other's throats. So all seats which relied on vote transfer from either Jaatav or Yadav to get through are actually gone. Only core Yaadav or core Jaatav seats can be in play. However at that point, other casts (particularly the OBC+Brahmins+Vaishyas+Rajput (equivalent)) will consolidate.

Somebody gave 50+ seats to MGB. Actually it should be 50+ seats to BJP/NDA.

Bihar is total wash for CONgoons and Laloo. I think Bihar will give almost all seats to NDA. I am expecting 90+ seats from UP/Bihar for NDA.

From the reports, it does appear that there is a strong undercurrent to get back Modi, since he is seen as a doer instead of the various Mah-Milavat types.

And Indians are smart enough now to know when they have a good thing and retain it. They know that if not Modi, then they will stare at uncertainities Can Pappu really be PM with Sharad Pawar stating that CBN/Mamata/Mayawati (what the sly fox was saying - that its me - Sharad Pawar) are better PM candidates?

What happens if CONgoons get <45? Why would anybody want to support CONgoon? In WB and Orissa, vote for CONgoon is going towards BJP. In Guj/Raj & MP where CONgoons are the other opposition (or ruling) party, people know that this is an election for PM and hence with some local politicking skewing some ten percent of seats all of it may end up in BJP.

So yes, I am expecting 23+22+26=71 seats from Guj/MP/Raj for BJP/NDA. Add to the 90+ seats and you already have 160 seats from the North/North west India (minus Punjab/Haryana).

Now coming to Karnataka/Mh, that will be 14+24 = 38 at the minimum! That is some 200 seats for BJP/NDA. Add in Assam, Punjab, Goa, Delhi - we are looking at 30/40 seats coming into BJP/NDA category.

Given that, already 230-240 seats. Now given the polling percentages (a little more than 2014) and new voters (@10 crore), it is definitely advantage Modi and BJP/NDA can be predicted at 280 optimistically.

===

Qstn on everybody should be, why would you vote for Pappu or Maomata or CBN or Maya if you are not from within that state?

Pappu is stateless, Pappu may lose Amethi.

[banrjeer]

This Amrutanjan story is pointless fear mongering of low quality . I’m not claiming it hasn’t happened . The more important fact is that we are talking about WB here - they have been under
coercive voting regimes for two generations now . All that’s changed is the party name . I’m sure there are many more tricks besides Amrutanjan . None of it matters because people know they exist . They have also within the past decade overthrown a long time coercive party .

What’s more pertinent is how the CPM was deposed despite them doing all these too . The overthrow of TMC will be done by the same playbook . So the real question here is, how did the TMC beat the state power of the CPM a decade ago ? The BJPs job is ctrl-c ctrl-v .

cant you use a cloth or barrier on your finger? I spent a year in KGP 1991. I was told about tactics of the CPIM goons..just stand in lines and take inadvertent amounts of time and not let others vote in areas where things were suspected to go against them.

[Suraj]

And Cambridge Analytica is accurate because ?

It tipped the elections in MP , KA & Rajasthan at mindbogglingly close number of few thousands of votes.
It has the big data of silicon valley tech giants sourced in realtime for election trend analysis & action.

Micromanaging the election to shift few thousand votes in each constituency is its forte .

There's nothing new here besides the application of technology that Indian IT entities themselves are applying now , in this election. Even informal whatsapp mechanisms are being used. As mentioned in the previous post, CA were hired by BJP, INC, SP and several other parties multiple times between ~2003 and the time they imploded. The effort to optimize booth level polling is a function of the ground level worker performance of each party, and no amount of big data can fix the presence or absence of people on the ground willing to get the job done.

They did some nice big data work, but they also demonstrated extremely poor data management skills and the ability to keep up with their legal obligations, and went out of business for it. They make for a nice name to throw in , like 'Snowden' and 'Wikileaks' and 'Illuminati', but that's it.

[nachiket]

Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario.
This is based upon nightmare of 2004.
What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. After all who doesn't love a weak govt and opportunity to mint some money.

Saar since when did 230-240 become "high and dry"? It may not be as great as 2014 but that is still absolutely a "win" as far as Indian elections are concerned. Recall that in 1999, BJP had only 182 seats and they managed to form the government and rule effectively for 5 years. Do you think a man like Amit Shah will have any difficulty whatsoever in getting a measly 30-40 more seats to form a stable coalition? That is "baaye haath ka khel" for him.

Truly amazing what 2014 has done to our expectations. Back then if BJP had got 240 instead of 282 we would have still done a lungi dance.

[Lilo]

... The effort to optimize booth level polling is a function of the ground level worker performance of each party, and no amount of big data can fix the presence or absence of people on the ground willing to get the job done.

They did some nice big data work, but they also demonstrated extremely poor data management skills and the ability to keep up with their legal obligations, and went out of business for it. They make for a nice name to throw in , like 'Snowden' and 'Wikileaks' and 'Illuminati', but that's it.

^^ Please read below quoted portion of my post , CA is not a specific entity its a catch all term for foreign entities involved in election interventions via big data analytics all of them controlled by Globalists.

PS: This pertains to foreign interventions by CA & any other avatars of it in the hands of globalists.

Big tech out of silicon valley is overwhelmingly controlled by Globalists.
My gradation:
Google/Youtube>>Twitter=Amazon=M$>>>Facebook
Scroll/Wire/Quint/Altnews etc are all crossowned by benami entities in above Big tech & they use tweaked search algorithms to push to the top the stories of Scroll/Wire/Quint kind of online BIF fake news portals.

[Shanmukh]

Rampur is near Muslim majority [49% Muslim]. All he needs is 1% of the votes to transfer to win.

How many of them are Shia? How many Sunnis has Azam Khan pissed off by his high handed methods? Does he face a strong vote-katwa? How well funded is his opponent?

All this population level analysis shows is that you can do algebra at second grade. If all he needed was 1% votes from Hindus, why did he lose in 14? More than 1% Hindus cross voted in 14 too..

In 2014, BSP, SP and INC all fielded Muslim candidates, while the BJP candidate was the only Hindu. The SP candidate lost by 20K votes and the Congress and BSP, between them, had taken 2.4 lakh votes. In this election, Congress has fielded Sanjay Kapoor - a Hindu - to cut the BJP vote share.

Neither Shia, nor Sunni vote the BJP. Whatever their differences, they will not vote for a Kufr candidate ever, unless it doesn't matter [like with Vajpayee in Lucknow, when they knew that voting the opposition candidate was pointless].

[Suraj]

"Globalists" is as much a CT as "EVMs are being rigged". As such there's absolutely nothing meaningful in the term other than a nicely chosen word with vaguely threatening connotations.

Big data is a cool term, but Laloo Yadav was using big data from his cadre network while sitting on on his charpoy back in the early 1990s too. All that has changed is that the modes of collecting data have kept up with advances in technology.

[vimal]

Not sure what to make of this from PP.

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122865229648371714

We are calling this election!
It is now virtually clear that Modi will return back with a bigger majority in 2019... This is the big signal from the ground, rest is all noise!

Followed by this

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122891874413400064

The only problem for BJP going forward is that workers/leaders, sensing a wave, may become complacent in the next phases and may slack.
But this can work both ways. Opposition workers may as well get demoralised and simply stop working in the next phases.

He has an easy escape hatch. Hopefully it is all apple and peaches from here on.

[Lilo]

"Globalists" is as much a CT as "EVMs are being rigged". As such there's absolutely nothing meaningful in the term other than a nicely chosen word with vaguely threatening connotations.

..

Suraj ji,
No "Globalist" is not a CT.
"EVM's being rigged"(wirelessly etc) is a CT because logical deduction using physics principles even a 12th class student can say that its a CT with confidence.

Globalists are ones who want to weaken the nation states of Westphalian construct.They seek to bring forth a globalized world where forces of Globalization controlled by them are free to act without the constraints of national borders or nation states. No wonder Globalists want weak national govts like UPA where national sovereignty is bartered away daily.

The opposite of Nationalist is a Globalist if it can help in understanding.
For example:
Japan had 60+ years of a antinationalist govt , Abe in contrast is a nationalist.
Putin,Modi,Trump,Abe etc represent nationalist forces - naturally Globalist owned Big tech & Big media incessantly target them & their nationalist ideology - which is why from NYT to WaPo to Guardian to Economist to FT (& all other Broadsheets of western world),Hollywood,Silicon valley tech giants all disparage Modi,Putin,Trump,Abe etc .

No need of empirical proof for existence of Globalists (although there a lot available) - joining dots & logical deduction is enough to perceive.

[IndraD]

https://twitter.com/aajtak/status/1122768241829404674
PM Modi appeals supporters to vote as opposition trying to instil complacency w “modi to jeet gaya”

[nachiket]

Mighty brave for anyone to call the election this early. Especially with the kind of numbers PP is projecting. He is putting his reputation and future in this business on the line here. But then, he is the one with the data and if he is confident enough to do that, it makes me hopeful.

[ShyamSP]

... The effort to optimize booth level polling is a function of the ground level worker performance of each party, and no amount of big data can fix the presence or absence of people on the ground willing to get the job done.

They did some nice big data work, but they also demonstrated extremely poor data management skills and the ability to keep up with their legal obligations, and went out of business for it. They make for a nice name to throw in , like 'Snowden' and 'Wikileaks' and 'Illuminati', but that's it.

^^ Please read below CA is not a specific entity it a catch all term for foreign sourced election manipulations by big data analystics .

PS: This pertains to foreign interventions by CA & any other avatars of it in the hands of globalists.

Big tech out of silicon valley is overwhelmingly controlled by Globalists.
My gradation:
Google/Youtube>>Twitter=Amazon=M$>>>Facebook
Scroll/Wire/Quint/Altnews etc are all crossowned by benami entities in above Big tech & they use tweaked search algorithms to push the stories of Scroll/Wire/Quint kind of online fake news portals.

Globalists may have power in pushing propaganda news still via twitter and facebook and other global platforms. But party electioneering is done locally by parties themselves with all sophistication as they now have all reliable data and algos. Local guys can also push real time propaganda news in time when needed. AP's eservices, esp Agro, are way advanced and integrated compared to most of other states. It is good indication of how much local parties can make use real time big data in their electioneering also. By now BJP may also have gotten more and better sophisticated propaganda and electioneering infrastructure to beat INC which has some globalists help.

[nachiket]

The "globalists" at their core are mercenaries and will work for anyone who pays them. As Suraj pointed out, even BJP had used CA's services in the past. Can't speak to their effectiveness, but the C-System does not have a monopoly on them anyway.

[Suraj]

Suraj ji,
No "Globalist" is not a CT.
"EVM's being rigged"(wirelessly etc) is a CT because logical deduction using physics principles even a 12th class student can say that its a CT with confidence.

Globalists are ones who want to weaken the nation states of Westphalian construct.They seek to bring forth a globalized world where forces of Globalization controlled by them are free to act without the constraints of national borders or nation states. No wonder Globalists want weak national govts like UPA where national sovereignty is bartered away daily.

Boss, I view that entire argument as a CT All this argument tells me is that rich powerful people work to further their self interest, which has been going on since the dawn of human civilization.

#weareallglobalists

[Picklu]

This Amrutanjan story is pointless fear mongering of low quality . I’m not claiming it hasn’t happened . The more important fact is that we are talking about WB here - they have been under
coercive voting regimes for two generations now . All that’s changed is the party name . I’m sure there are many more tricks besides Amrutanjan . None of it matters because people know they exist . They have also within the past decade overthrown a long time coercive party .

What’s more pertinent is how the CPM was deposed despite them doing all these too . The overthrow of TMC will be done by the same playbook . So the real question here is, how did the TMC beat the state power of the CPM a decade ago ? The BJPs job is ctrl-c ctrl-v .

cant you use a cloth or barrier on your finger? I spent a year in KGP 1991. I was told about tactics of the CPIM goons..just stand in lines and take inadvertent amounts of time and not let others vote in areas where things were suspected to go against them.

Called "Booth Jam" in vote machinery terminology

[Picklu]

The well meaning folks in BRF are putting lot of counters to "perfume on EVM" and other techniques without grasping the ground realities that
a. These techniques are not be all and end all; they are tools to a pervasive vote machinery that are not afraid to get violent given legal support from state govt
b. The counter needs an equally strong vote machinery ready to go toe to toe which BJP lacks now and difficult to gain in near future given the absence of state govt support

Centre, EC and court has much reduced power compared to state govt in this regard without president rule.

Now, given this, the question is how Jihadid toppled left?

a. There was not counter vote machinary for TCM, the left vote machinary simply switched side. From that aspect, real govt and policies didn't change at all, only the ministers and flag colour changed.
b. Buddha Babu tried to change the policies in Bengal and tried to move it from dole politics to free market. That was disliked by the vote machinery. There were lot of resistance and they were looking for other bidders.
c. Prakash Karat, in his infinite wisdom, taken back support from MMS govt on Nuclear Bill issue. MB took the opportunity in both hands and went into an alliance. Cong supported TMC with money to induce the cpm vote machinery to switch side.

Note: the vote machinery didn't switch side to Cong itself, can't align Cong being a national party. It simply won't allow the tail to wag the dog. They switched to TMC which is a regional one and can be controlled. Hence it would be equally difficult for BJP to gain the same way; it has to device some other method.

If you notice in AP, TDP and Jagan are interchangeable proxies for Cong and BJP. In TN, it is DMK and ADMK. Unfortunately, Left have a "khawab" of being a national party so won't align to BJP even if they are fighting an existential battle with TMC in WB. For playbook of Jihadid to apply, WB needs another regional party that can influence the vote machinery to switch side, because I doubt BJP, with it's RSS backed ideology would allow the vote machinery to function as it is.

[vimal]

Can we not derail this thread with all the Globalist discussion pls.

[Suraj]

Chintamani's site updated turnout figures, though I haven't validated it independently against ECI data:
LIVE VOTER TURNOUT 2019 VS 2014 – PHASE 4 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS 2019

[Kanson]

Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!

What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

Anyway you will come to know on may 23rd. Lets see, you will know.

[chetak]

This Amrutanjan story is pointless fear mongering of low quality . I’m not claiming it hasn’t happened . The more important fact is that we are talking about WB here - they have been under
coercive voting regimes for two generations now . All that’s changed is the party name . I’m sure there are many more tricks besides Amrutanjan . None of it matters because people know they exist . They have also within the past decade overthrown a long time coercive party .

What’s more pertinent is how the CPM was deposed despite them doing all these too . The overthrow of TMC will be done by the same playbook . So the real question here is, how did the TMC beat the state power of the CPM a decade ago ? The BJPs job is ctrl-c ctrl-v .

I applied lip balm on the finger and blotted off the ink immediately using a tissue. I dislike having a discolored finger for months after the event. I now have only a faint mark which is acceptable to me and it also clear enough evidence that I voted and got inked.

[UlanBatori]

Why is B'luru vote percentage so much lower than say, KL or TN (how is greater Karnataka?)
Rule is that everyone should be able to vote with less than 1.2km walk, right? So traffic should not be a killer as such. Maybe 1.2km from your flat is as far away as the moon because you don't get back home until 9pm? Surely urbanites in B'luru are not less civic-minded than ppl in rural KL/TN or even UP?

[Kanson]

The well meaning folks in BRF are putting lot of counters to "perfume on EVM" and other techniques without grasping the ground realities that
a. These techniques are not be all and end all; they are tools to a pervasive vote machinery that are not afraid to get violent given legal support from state govt
b. The counter needs an equally strong vote machinery ready to go toe to toe which BJP lacks now and difficult to gain in near future given the absence of state govt support
...

You dont have to respond or counter a sniper with another sniper. You can drop a 500 lb bomb or call for artillery strike. From what is seen from reports bjp is not responding toe to toe. They are just attacking the very foundation itself.

[nachiket]

Why is B'luru vote percentage so much lower than say, KL or TN (how is greater Karnataka?)
Rule is that everyone should be able to vote with less than 1.2km walk, right? So traffic should not be a killer as such. Maybe 1.2km from your flat is as far away as the moon because you don't get back home until 9pm? Surely urbanites in B'luru are not less civic-minded than ppl in rural KL/TN or even UP?

Higher percentage of moneyed middle class folk who are more interested in getting a long weekend and taking a trip than voting. You see the same thing in Mumbai. They only become civic minded when the garbage piles up outside their colony or they are unable to find the road amongst the potholes.

[rgosain]

What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

Anyway you will come to know on may 23rd. Lets see, you will know.

A Malbec is my favourite tipple, so I shall raise a glass to you. Back in 2014, I celebrated with a large chilled 25 year Caribbean Rum and coconut water.
Cheers

[vijayk]

Chintamani
‏

@IamIconoclast

#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in Friends, the impossible has happened. Rajasthan has repeated 13/13. Congress has lost Jodhpur, Barmer and Tonk-Sawai Madhopur too

https://twitter.com/IamIconoclast/statu ... 2486258694

[Kanson]

People here started with numbers like 220- for bjp. After 3rd phase , there are reports that bjp can reach majority on its own. What kind of analysis is this to say 220/240 then? Just that they are giving beautiful terms like 'Optimism' for their own dilemma. They are hiding behind such fanciful terms. Thats all.

[Kanson]

Anyway you will come to know on may 23rd. Lets see, you will know.

A Malbec is my favourite tipple, so I shall raise a glass to you. Back in 2014, I celebrated with a large chilled 25 year Caribbean Rum and coconut water.
Cheers

you can wait till 23rd...

[nachiket]

Folks, who is Chintamani? Twitter handle says Lutyens insider with ringside view of matters which matter, whatever that means. I mean does he claim to have access to actual exit poll data? I have only recently become active on twitter so don't really know what he is about. Just seeing a lot of predictions from him.

[vijayk]

Folks, who is Chintamani? Twitter handle says Lutyens insider with ringside view of matters which matter, whatever that means. I mean does he claim to have access to actual exit poll data? I have only recently become active on twitter so don't really know what he is about. Just seeing a lot of predictions from him.

If I remember correctly, he predicted BJP majority on its own in 2014. He predicted Rajasthan correctly much earlier (1 year). I think he went wrong on MP by not much and CG.

He runs site elections.in

[Suraj]

People here started with numbers like 220- for bjp. After 3rd phase , there are reports that bjp can reach majority on its own. What kind of analysis is this to say 220/240 then? Just that they are giving beautiful terms like 'Optimism' for their own dilemma. They are hiding behind such fanciful terms. Thats all.

I don't think so. Generally, psephologists can only get a sense of vote breakdown at a constituency and sub-constituency level. They attempt to extrapolate that to seat share. This may work, or it may not. For example - PP pointed out that on-camera opinion polls often don't work because people are reticent or outright lie in front of camera, quite often. Instead, his teams attempted to talk to people off the record to get a sense of community thinking. At voting time of course, they attempt to track enthusiasm per party down to the lowest level they can, i.e. booth level, but typically at assembly constituency level. With the rough picture of voting enthusiasm and other data translated into relative voteshare estimates (with a margin of error) they build a seat share model.

At this point, it becomes much harder depending on various factors, including overall votes, number of major voting corners (just one major party being the easiest, 3 or 4 cornered fights with close vote shares are very hard to predict). Most psephologists, even 5forty3, will find this hard, because there's simply no way to be exact here - the accuracy is entirely a question of estimated weights applied to raw voteshare data.

For a comparative example, Nate Silver was extremely good at predict both the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections, especially the latter. He used all the cool stuff people ascribe to Cambridge Analytica types. But he catastrophically blew it in 2016, where he gave Billary between 70-97% chance of winning. And that's with a simple 2-cornered fight. He simply didn't read the underlying wave sentiment - something PP accurately predicted in 2014 and in UP VS 2017.

There are different categories of elections. There are simple two cornered fights without much underlying sentiment. Then there are multi-cornered fights with close voteshares. And then there are cases with underlying wave sentiments. Now, if a pollster manages to repeatedly identify an underlying wave sentiment in an election before others do, that's very interesting, even if his model doesn't work well in other kinds of elections with very different parameters, as he's solving a different mathematical problem in that context.

Has PP ever had false positives (claimed there was a wave sentiment, but in reality there wasn't) or false negatives (couldn't identify a wave that actually happened) ? I don't see that in his results, with one notable example - CG in 2018, which no one saw. It's clear he supports the BJP, but in RJ and MP he repeatedly stated the contest was running tight. His preferences probably bias the qualitative weights he gives to vote share estimates, which in turn affects his seatshare projections in close battles. But that's a particular type of election.

[vijayk]

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