2019 General Elections News and Discussion

[Pratyush]

Out of curiosity. I want to ask gurus that how dependable the Google trends are.
That Banerjee guy has published in his blog that going by those trends this election is already done and dusted in favour of Modi sarkar.
Interestingly, when I asked the same thing in the comments section under his article and also whether he compared the current Google trends with those for the assembly elections that the BJP lost recently. The guy neither answered my question nor published my comment since he does it only after moderation.
Any thoughts, gurus?
Regards.

Don't be taken in by any one. Use your own thoughts and gather first hand information.

You will see what is what.

Vote for the who is right for India.

Come what may vote, if your constituency has not voted yet.

[ramana]

RajD,
With large data the central limit theorem says the central value coincides with normal distribution. So large sample in Google trends is reasonable for large sample. But could be motivated respondents giving false positive.
Better not rely on one indicator.

[chetak]

spoke to a long time worker of VHP/RSS.

Right now the projections are 290 for NDA and 245-255 for BJP ... They are comfortable with these numbers. UP is a challenge. Bengal as it stands 15 but can go up to 30. Orissa is good too.

We are getting overconfident based on 5Forty3 and Chintamani predictions.

one more interesting thing ... Rural voters are voting strong and there is very very strong undercurrent. He said JanDhan is benefiting us a a lot in this election.

this is also my biggest aphrehension.

are some forces trying to lull the Modi faithfulls into staying at home by projecting that the race has already been won, when in actual fact, the contestants are yet to run in many states.

lazy voters may assume that since the "results" are already sealed and stamped, given the average Indian's ingrained reverence for the written word, so why go out in this terrible heat to vote. The "winner" has already been declared, no

[vimal]

The "election is over and Modi has won" is being peddled by the same set of folks who peddled the NOTA drama in the recent three state elections and managed to won. You've been warned.

[Karthik S]

Guys, turnout is at par with highest ever turnout, Suraj had posted the figures in previous pages. People are voting enthusiastically.

[chetak]

RajD,
With large data the central limit theorem says the central value coincides with normal distribution. So large sample in Google trends is reasonable for large sample. But could be motivated respondents giving false positive.
Better not rely on one indicator.

sirji,

google, FB, twitter and the largely coopted paid Indian media plus the very hostile international media are all part and parcel of the BIF combine.

large sample or no, we would do well to steer clear of all non Indian sources.

google, FB, twitter are paid clients of large ameriki/eu/cheeni businesses( and GOK, who else) trying to bend, remake rules, regulations and laws that are most conducive to their way of doing business in the third world.

their insistence, for example, on the offshoring of Indian consumer data, going to the extent of involving the GoTUS in trying to prevent India from prohibiting such data offshoring is a recent case in point.

these may be the very same rules, regulations and laws that they do not have in their own countries because of anti trust issues, monopoly situations and predatory competition implications.

since they have a deeply vested interest in desiring a very specific outcome for the Indian elections, it may not be unreasonable to expect that their views are also slanted in particular directions.

[Singha]

Guys, turnout is at par with highest ever turnout, Suraj had posted the figures in previous pages. People are voting enthusiastically.

next 3 phases are the crucial ones where BJP had won a lot of seats last time.

all this "we are already victorious" is designed to make the lazier NDA supporters take it easy and sit at home while oppn voters go out in numbers and turn the tide. I deeply suspect why PP is saying such things.

everyone who can run walk or crawl to the booth and vote NDA needs to vote. no excuses. no exceptions and certainly no sitting back smoking ganja and claiming all is well.

[Vikas]

A different hurdle is coming up.
First it was EVM nara started by CBN.
After Mamata started voting impediment that lost steam.
Now Indira Jaising is activating her legal circuits to embroil in court chakkar.

Is this the last stand of the Pope where the battle for Bharat to be fought within the precincts of Vatican ?
Have we already reached the last step in the ladder of Escalation to stop Sh. Modi from coming back to power.
How powerful handlers of Indira Jaisingh could be that She is taking on the might of Mango Indians.

PS: The above is all paraphrasing, Modi Ji is not Indira G and this is not '77

[Vikas]

Guys, turnout is at par with highest ever turnout, Suraj had posted the figures in previous pages. People are voting enthusiastically.

next 3 phases are the crucial ones where BJP had won a lot of seats last time.

all this "we are already victorious" is designed to make the lazier NDA supporters take it easy and sit at home while oppn voters go out in numbers and turn the tide. I deeply suspect why PP is saying such things.

everyone who can run walk or crawl to the booth and vote NDA needs to vote. no excuses. no exceptions and certainly no sitting back smoking ganja and claiming all is well.

+100% GD,
If there was ever a reason to get out of the house and stand in a Queue, This is the reason. This is the moment.
Go out, vote , get the ink on your finger and proudly display it on SM. Do it for Insta or FB or Twitter or your WA but go out.

[Singha]

these last 3 phases are the BJP do or die heartland votes. so every traitor out there is busy putting out the "we have already won" message to drive down turnout. UP alone has 41 vital seats spread across 3 phases. MP has 23. WB has 15.

THIS WAR IS NO WAY OVER. make sure to call on every dharmic relative and friend in these states and make them vote. a massive 169 seats are at stake.


Phase 5: May 6

In this phase 51 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across seven states will go to vote: Uttar Pradesh (14 constituencies), Rajasthan (12), Madhya Pradesh (7), West Bengal (7), Bihar (5), Jharkhand (4) and Jammu and Kashmir (2).

Phase 6: May 12

The polling will be conducted in 59 parliamentary constituencies spread across seven states, namely Bihar (8 parliamentary constituencies), Haryana (10), Jharkhand (4), Madhya Pradesh (8), Uttar Pradesh (14), West Bengal (8) and Delhi-NCR (7).

Phase 7: May 19

In the last phase of the Lok Sabha Elections 2019, 59 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across eight states will vote: Bihar (8 parliamentary constituencies), Jharkhand (3), Madhya Pradesh (8), Punjab (13), West Bengal (9), Chandigarh (1), Uttar Pradesh (13) and Himachal Pradesh (4).

[Karthik S]

My point is that mango kafirs in towns and villages across various states won't be seeing PP or Cvoter etc to stay back at home, the turnout so far fairly supports that hypothesis. So let's not dhoti shiver. BJP is worker based party, and other than few places, we haven't seen any reports that karyakartas are sitting at home they way they did during 2009.

[RajD]

RajD,
With large data the central limit theorem says the central value coincides with normal distribution. So large sample in Google trends is reasonable for large sample. But could be motivated respondents giving false positive.
Better not rely on one indicator.

Yes sir. I'd the same thing in my mind. I just wanted to dwell on fallacity of such instruments and surveys based on it as a 100% truth.

OT: I still hold the photos of medallion, scroll and citation given to Avm(retd) Nanodkar sir. Nobody from forum crew contrary to your suggestions has contacted me yet in order to update his service record. Requesting you to pls do the needful. Else, you could pls tell me how to upload and update the same.
Regards.

[nachiket]

My point is that mango kafirs in towns and villages across various states won't be seeing PP or Cvoter etc to stay back at home, the turnout so far fairly supports that hypothesis. So let's not dhoti shiver. BJP is worker based party, and other than few places, we haven't seen any reports that karyakartas are sitting at home they way they did during 2009.

Modiji himself thought it was serious enough to warn people that they still needed to vote and should not listen to people who were saying he had already won.

[Singha]

everyone educated is on whatsapp even in villages.
efforts will be on inside whatsapp domain to make people not vote.

====
Abhijit Majumder
Verified account
@abhijitmajumder
3h3 hours ago

Need organised mass action against @Twitter, followed by political action after elections.
Explain why @TrueIndology and certain handles are regularly blocked/shadow-banned. Make algorithms public. Make ‘fact-checkers’ and processes public. Or leave India.
#bringbackTrueIndology

[Singha]

Chowkidar Arun Jaitley
Verified account
@arunjaitley
17h17 hours ago
More
The politics of minority polarisation continued by Congress & others for their survival. In the 1980s & 90s the senior BJP leader Sh. L.K. Advani, strongly argued against this & a theocratic State, he said that secularism can no longer become a euphemism for majority bashing.

===
Chowkidar Himanta Biswa Sarma
‏
Verified account

@himantabiswa
Follow Follow @himantabiswa
More
BJP is a rare organisation with great ethos & values.

Unlike @INCIndia master-slave relationship, President of world's largest party ~ @BJP4India ~ greets even an ordinary karyakarta with extraordinary warmth. The kindness of Sri @AmitShah is truly remarkable & inspirational.

[chetak]

Chowkidar Arun Jaitley
Verified account
@arunjaitley
17h17 hours ago
More
The politics of minority polarisation continued by Congress & others for their survival. In the 1980s & 90s the senior BJP leader Sh. L.K. Advani, strongly argued against this & a theocratic State, he said that secularism can no longer become a euphemism for majority bashing.

===
Chowkidar Himanta Biswa Sarma
‏
Verified account

@himantabiswa
Follow Follow @himantabiswa
More
BJP is a rare organisation with great ethos & values.

Unlike @INCIndia master-slave relationship, President of world's largest party ~ @BJP4India ~ greets even an ordinary karyakarta with extraordinary warmth. The kindness of Sri @AmitShah is truly remarkable & inspirational.

If all goes well, this man @himantabiswa will have an important role at the centre, maybe even an important cabinet berth.

[chetak]

This Video clip from Bhiwandi might give sleepless nights to the Congress & its ecosystem


https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 1033844736

[Yagnasri]

Cases on one pretext or another will be filed. Green Party in the US also did the same thing in the election of DT. All out effort to delegitimize election win will be made. All as per the book and seen before. Reasons for win will be distorted and work done during the NM terms will be covered up. That is what establishment did. We have forgotten Green Revolution by Lal Bahadur, Economic reforms by PV, Information and Communication efforts under ABV. Same will happen to NM if the power to set the narration is not taken over by us in long term. As long as that is not done INC even in less than 15% vote share will continue to be natural party of governance by the establishment and every BJP win will be seen as an minor abrasion.

[amdavadi]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1123110492279455744

Check out this kid.

[UlanBatori]

Sorry running out of things to write. So here is a brave attempt.
Have the Experts considered in comparing 2014 to 2019, the effect of voter replacement? i.e., voters dying/dropping out due to old age and new ones coming in? Some idea of the mentality of new voters might give a much better reliability to the predictions, and make any percentage increase in voting look that much more significant.

My sense is that voters at the old extreme may
(a) be diehard Congis from Gandhi/Nehru days (and IG days)
(b) be diehard commies
(c) be diehard Sardar Patel/ Vinoba Bhave fans

whereas newer ones MAY be
(a) Internet junkies
(b) identify with RaGa because they resonate with his intracranial cavity.
(c) SRK fans
(d) "secular"
(e) NaMo fans?

Indian life expectancy in 2019 is about 69 years. So 5 years is a long time: Remove the first 18 years, we are left with 51. So 5 years is 10% of average life expectancy. Too late at night for the madarssa math to kick in Normal and Abnormal Distributions but someone might try these calculations? Given demographic trends, the numbers at the 18-end are significantly higher than those at the 69-end, so the rise in % compared to 2014, seen so far, may be too small, and hence reflect greater voter apathy!!

We might think that NaMo Surgical Strike and Balakot impress the youngest-gen voters, but many might never have heard of either event. Car -gel what? But they may be comfortable with PayTM.

In Malloostan I would HOPE that young-extreme gen is less commie/congi than old-extreme though going by the relatives I know, they are (never mind).

Some discussion on the sentiments of the marginal voter-replacements might be much more revealing in prediction terms than pics of the smiling Amit Shah.

[chetak]

The MHA seems to have finally got into the act



Accepting a three-year-old complaint filed by Subramanian Swamy against Rahul Gandhi, the ministry of home affairs has asked the Congress president to explain the evidence of his British citizenship

[chetak]

twitter

Ramayana stamps released by PM Modi

[tandav]

Guys, turnout is at par with highest ever turnout, Suraj had posted the figures in previous pages. People are voting enthusiastically.

Urban voters arguably have historically not voted in large numbers... AFAIK In 2014 NDA won all but 1 seat in the Mumbai / Navi Mumbai /Thane region (voting percentage in 2019 and 2014 was also 50%).

[chetak]

the crackpots have surfaced again



CPI(M) manifesto: The communists want to cut ties with USA and Israel, reverse all reforms in defence manufacturing

CPI(M) manifesto: The communists want to cut ties with USA and Israel, reverse all reforms in defence manufacturing


Ahead of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) released its Manifest on 28th March this year. It is often alleged that the communists in India care more about other countries compared to India, and the manifesto published by CPI(M) reflects that philosophy. It is filled with promises that are designed to make India weaker in front of its rivals in the world.









Party wants to address the concerns of Rohingya, but silent on religious minorities persecuted in neighbouring Pakistan and Bangladesh, or even the Chinese crackdown on Uighur Muslims. Interestingly, Venezuela is mentioned twice in the Communist Manifesto, as the party wants India to oppose USA interventions in the country. The Venezuelan crisis is a result of decades of mis‑governance by the socialists, but the Communist Party of India wants to blame the United States for the same.

[Suraj]

Guys, turnout is at par with highest ever turnout, Suraj had posted the figures in previous pages. People are voting enthusiastically.

The data was posted in this post. The data doesn't necessarily show the high turnout corresponds to anti-incumbency, pro-incumbency or any discernable factor.

Rather, the data from both 2014 and 2019 are very anomalous compared to historical trends. Until 2014, GEs averaged about 58% turnout, from 1951 through 2009. There were a couple of cases above 60%, most notably in 1984 right after IG's assassination.

[Singha]

Himanta was giving speeches to crowds as a middle schooler during assam agitation

In my PU college he was gen secy. During election campaign the candidates used to come to classrooms to intro themselves . As a traditions, we juniors had the right to ask them to speak extempore on any nonsense topic and have a good laugh at the seniors ( they were in BA or MA) by then. He was pretty amazing orator and thinking on the feet type.

Fate may have marked him out for bigger things

He also has the nitin gadkari thing of being a efficient administrator ( was health minister in a old stint) apart from amit shahish chanakya niti

[Karthik S]

Anyone having idea on Mukul Roy? Read somewhere he was instrumental in the ascent of TMC, must be Tywin Lannister in his approach, now in BJP, surprisingly, nothing has been spoken about him.

[Yagnasri]

He is suppose to be organisation man with connections in every village and polling booth. Sidelines with Jihadidi brought her relations into party. He will be critical to create some ground goon power or protection network for the party in WB now.

[chetak]

twitter

south bombay

[Karan M]

That is brilliant.

[Singha]

sobo elite ka sample #1

ibnlive

MUMBAI: Industrialist Ness Wadia's sentencing by a Japanese court for possessing drugs will not affect him "in the discharge of any of his responsibilities", the Wadia Group said in a statement today.
47-year-old Ness Wadia, son of industrialist Nusli Wadia and co-owner of the Indian Premier League franchise Kings XI Punjab, was sentenced for drugs possession while he was on a skiing holiday to Japan, the Financial Times reported. A court in Sapporo, capital of the mountainous northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, had handed him a two-year jail term, which was later suspended for five years.

A spokesman of the Wadia Group in a statement said: "The judgement is clear. It is a suspended sentence. Hence it will not impact Ness Wadia in the discharge of any of his responsibilities and he will continue to play the role that he has done hitherto, both within the Group and outside."

He was arrested last month at New Chitose Airport in the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido. Ness Wadia admitted to drug possession, about 25 gram of what appeared to be cannabis resin, but he argued that the drug was for his personal use, a court official said.

[Shaktimaan]

I'm happy to note that Mumbai's turnout is the highest in 30 years.

According to me, this points towards a BJP sweep.

In 2014, there were 2 kinds of voters who voted for Modiji :
1. People who wanted Modiji to win
2. People who were sick of the corruption of UPA and were voting BJP simply to teach UPA a lesson.

This time around Modiji has performed admirably well. There is no significant anger against Modiji. The people who are voting for BJP are doing so out of a positive sense, for PhirEkBaarModiSarkaar.

I voted in my suburb of Mumbai yesterday. I could feel the positive energy all around me. Even in the morning I knew that turnout was more brisk than previous years.

In contrast, UPA voters are not fired up about anything. They have no reason to come out in droves and vote. So the increased turnout is doubly positive for NDA.

[mmasand]

The MHA seems to have finally got into the act



Accepting a three-year-old complaint filed by Subramanian Swamy against Rahul Gandhi, the ministry of home affairs has asked the Congress president to explain the evidence of his British citizenship

On briefly checking out Companies House register, the organisation BackOps doesn't seem to have any active records, then again I don't know if they can be expunged after a certain time frame of dissolution. Interestingly, one of the partners, a Ulrik Robert McKnight , Swedish name but US national, is listed as Director of a company Optimal Armour (Company number 05754485) that as you guessed it, is involved in the defence industry. Now there are seven other directors/officers of the firm, including an Italian sounding name - Simone Sposato, and 2 other Indian nationals namely Gautam Makker from Vizag(HQ-Eastern Command) and Sunil Menon from Goregaon, Mumbai but resides in Vizag.

Ulrik is married to Sonia Faleiro, London based author, and daughter of former Union Minister Eduardo Falerio (INC). Even if his citizenship was erroneously filled by his accountant in annual disclosure documents, how does Rahul baba explain his involvement in the defence industry.

Now here is the biggest catch, mark my words, this will become a big defence scam in years to come. Gautam Makker is also a director of a firm Flash Forge. FF has associations with the Scorpene class subs, they lay pipes and fit GPS related equipment. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nati ... 2011-09-30

None of this is new information, it has been floating around for about 3-4 years, I wonder why the BJP is quiet on this? Are they holding onto bits and pieces to use as and when they need?

[nandakumar]

The MHA seems to have finally got into the act



Accepting a three-year-old complaint filed by Subramanian Swamy against Rahul Gandhi, the ministry of home affairs has asked the Congress president to explain the evidence of his British citizenship

On briefly checking out Companies House register, the organisation BackOps doesn't seem to have any active records, then again I don't know if they can be expunged after a certain time frame of dissolution. Interestingly, one of the partners, a Ulrik Robert McKnight , Swedish name but US national, is listed as Director of a company Optimal Armour (Company number 05754485) that as you guessed it, is involved in the defence industry. Now there are seven other directors/officers of the firm, including an Italian sounding name - Simone Sposato, and 2 other Indian nationals namely Gautam Makker from Vizag(HQ-Eastern Command) and Sunil Menon from Goregaon, Mumbai but resides in Vizag.

Ulrik is married to Sonia Faleiro, London based author, and daughter of former Union Minister Eduardo Falerio (INC). Even if his citizenship was erroneously filled by his accountant in annual disclosure documents, how does Rahul baba explain his involvement in the defence industry.

Now here is the biggest catch, mark my words, this will become a big defence scam in years to come. Gautam Makker is also a director of a firm Flash Forge. FF has associations with the Scorpene class subs, they lay pipes and fit GPS related equipment. https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nati ... 2011-09-30

None of this is new information, it has been floating around for about 3-4 years, I wonder why the BJP is quiet on this? Are they holding onto bits and pieces to use as and when they need?

Well the company not having any active records is easily explained by the fact that it had filed for dissolution in 2009. Perhaps that process must have been completed way back then.

[Singha]

Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
Apr 26
More Dr Praveen Patil Retweeted Dr Praveen Patil
A combination of dynastic succession, nepotism and JNU type left liberalism is a deadly disease that can kill you from within... Mumbai film industry is just another victim of this disease

[Deans]

Well the company not having any active records is easily explained by the fact that it had filed for dissolution in 2009. Perhaps that process must have been completed way back then.

I know of Gautam Makkar and Flash forge from a close companion of his. FF has been trying to go in for a IPO since 2016, but has not succeeded as
there were too many questions around the numbers and the overhang of the allegations made by SS.

[rgosain]

Looks as if the SC has decided to go on the counter offensive against the INC establishment for their defamation chorus against the CJI, and RG non-apology.
Re: the UK Companies House docs. RG has been an MP since 2004. In his nomination papers, has he ever disclosed his role in these UK companies, or subsequently in the directory of members' interest. He has had up to 2009 to rectify this

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1123110492279455744

Check out this kid.

awesome. Everyone Please RT

[mmasand]

Well the company not having any active records is easily explained by the fact that it had filed for dissolution in 2009. Perhaps that process must have been completed way back then.

I know of Gautam Makkar and Flash forge from a close companion of his. FF has been trying to go in for a IPO since 2016, but has not succeeded as
there were too many questions around the numbers and the overhang of the allegations made by SS.

Doesn't sound right nandakumar, there are several other companies dating back to 2005 that have been dissolved but still appear in records. My own company dissolved in 2016 still appears showing a clear timeline from inception, each years statements, to dissolution. I'm in touch with Companies House to figure out if there is an avenue for the record to be expunged.

Gautam Makker has had some sections of the media hound him earlier, surprisingly it's been relatively quiet.

[vijayk]

The idiots in Wire are spreading their propaganda by pushing lies as prediction during election phases.

The fact that pollster calls out as sham is rather telling.