srai wrote:We can work it out backwards from squadron numbers.
It’s been widely reported that the IAF us down to 31 squadrons. So that means
 6 x MiG21 Bison
 3 x MiG29
 3 x Mirage2000
 6 x Jaguar
 12 x Su30MKI
 1 x LCA Mk.1 IOC2
That already totals around 31 squadrons. Another 4 squadrons (2 Rafale, 1 Su30MKI and 1 LCA Mk.1) under production. In the near future, 6 squadrons (1 MiG29, 1 Su30MKI, and 4 LCA Mk1A) are in the plans.
Note: There might be couple of MiG27UPG and MiG21Bis squadrons in the process of being retired. MiG21Bisons will be retired between 20222025.
That's what I also did and calculated backwards... 6 Bison squadrons fit well when we back calculate...
There are also 2 MIG 27 UPG squadrons currently in operation... At the same time, AFAIK, there are only 2 M2k squadrons...
This would take the current strength to 32 squadrons...
But after seeing multiple articles claiming 250 MIG 21s in operation, I got a bit confused...

So, we'll be retiring 8 operational squadrons (6 Bisons and 2 MIG27s) by 2025... And will be adding 10...
1 Tejas Mk1 FOC
2 Rafale
2 Su30 MKIs (provided we order the extra 1 squadron)
1 MIG 29 (provided we order it)
4 Tejas Mk1A
That will take the strength to 34 squadrons by 202527...
So, if things go well we would not be needing MMRCA 2.0... They can simply order 2 more Rafale squadrons in a second GtoG deal and be done with it...
Tejas Mk2 is the key...
I always thought MMRCA 2.0 is floated only as a back up plan, just in case Tejas Mk2 is not ready on time...
I hope I'm right and also Tejas Mk2 is ready on time...