Karan M wrote:Having seen the Indian public do such incredibly stupid, selfish things such as constantly voting their caste etc, I guess a bit of concern is warranted. Another decade lost and our culture, economy, natsec will all take a brutal hit if the Indian public does this stupid thing. Anyways nothing we can do about it. No point whining about it overmuch.
People didn't really selfishly vote for caste in any of the past 5-6 GEs, IMHO. They voted the right way in 1998 and 1999 given the political dynamics of that time. They also voted in a meaningful manner in 2004 and 2009, based on understanding the scope of the problems we had.
the original report
article 1
Here's what India looked like in 2004 despite 15 years of liberalization:
Population: 1150 million
Population in destitution/extreme poverty: 450 million
Urban:rural ratio: 27:73
Total rural population: 840 million
Approx percentage of rural population destitute: ~50%
Rural road length: 2 million kms
Percentage of rural habitations connected to pucca road: 10%
Percentage of rural habitations with electricity: 27%
Percentage of working population with bank account: <15%
Fastforward to 2009:
Population: 1210 million
Population in destitution/extreme poverty: 335 million
Urban:rural ratio: 31:69
Total rural population: 830 million
Approx percentage of rural population destitute: ~40%
Rural road length: 2.7 million kms
Percentage of rural habitations connected to pucca road: 39%
Percentage of rural habitations with electricity: 33%
Percentage of working population with bank account: 30%
Here's what India is like in 2018-19:
Population: 1320 million
Population in destitution/extreme poverty: 50 million
Urban:rural ratio: 39:61
Total rural population: 805 million
Approx percentage of rural population destitute: ~6%
Rural road length: 4.4 million km
Percentage of rural habitations connected to pucca road: 91%
Percentage of rural habitations with electricity: ~95%
Percentage of working population with bank account: >90%
Reference:
rural road building
electricity
banking 1
banking 2
latrine coverage
Just look at those numbers. ABV was stating "India Shining" to a rural population 75%-90% of whom (depending on what metric) had no access to roads, sanitation, electricity and banking, half of whom had no idea where their next meal was coming from. They were supposed to vote for vikas ? To use a phorum phrase, all they could see was weak-ass . The basic public goods and utilities coverage figures were downright appalling, and that's in 2004.
Given these figures, it's worth considering why rural India voted for populism in 2004. Though we had nice topline growth, we had SO MUCH to do, that quite simply what was expected otherwise ? The number of destitute in 2004 was incredible. That was close to half a billion people who, at 5pm , were not thinking of dinner, but wondering whether to crawl in search of food, or conserve their energy to go scavenge next morning. So many people literally living life one day at a time. How were we supposed to formulate economic policy and a political message more complex than 'here's some free money' like NREGA did ? I really do not know.
However, if you scan over the %age covered figures in 2019, something is very noticeable. Basic public goods and services - food, sanitation, electricity and roads, aren't so catastrophically bad as they were even in the 2000s. Most things are at 90%+ covered. In fact, the scale of improvement is dramatic over the prior periods. Following the same rate of growth, most of these metrics would have been in the 50-60% range in 2019, but they're all >90%.
One can argue the work hasn't been done perfectly, i.e. village electrification may be complete only on paper with more to be done, or that gas cylinder upfront payment cost hampers better use. These are all likely true to some extent or the other, but the large point is that the rate at which the coverage of all these basic public goods have increased, is quite far beyond prior average rate of improvement.
In my opinion, this is a blind spot that MSM hasn't really noticed, beyond poohpoohing Ujjwala, Swacch Bharat, Saubhagya or other data as just govt data. It also explains the groundswell of public support everywhere - the change really has been far more than incremental at the bottom of the pyramid, even if the change visible to middle class isn't all that great. This is a good thing - it's the rural poor who still are the overwhelming majority of the voterbase, and if they have to support a development mandate, they have to have near universal basic goods and services to live upon. People who watch the sun going down the horizon each day with a sinking fear as their empty stomachs growl , are not won't to have long term thinking horizon. They cannot have been expected to vote differently from how they did in the 2000s when someone dangled free money in their face, vs long term development.
A lot was accomplished in terms of economic growth in the 2000s, just not enough to significantly improve the bottom of the pyramid, like the last five years have. If my view of political economy is correct, this also explains the unusual enthusiasm that is showing in the sustained high voter turnout. 2014 could have been explained as a one time aberration. But even higher voter turnout of 67% in 2019, a full TEN percentage points higher than the long term average of 57%, has to have some broadbased reason.
Even now, that clown Sreedharan Pillai is groping around from one gaffe to another.
