2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:03

Karnataka government will not survive this Tsunamo ... Nor Rajasthan and MP.

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 561
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 19 May 2019 20:06

Dr. BB has released his final bredictions with all the tossups also allocated to winners. No paid subscription needed now....

https://5forty3.in/data_Intelligence.php

BJP 304, NDA 364. UPA 94.

Vote share: NDA 46%, UPA 22%.

Doc, I hope you are correct...for your own sake :D
Last edited by KL Dubey on 20 May 2019 00:22, edited 3 times in total.

syam
BRFite
Posts: 475
Joined: 31 Jan 2017 00:13

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby syam » 19 May 2019 20:06

op Balakot , 6k money kisan scheme and reservation negated whatever bad press modiji had in his strongholds. I don't think they will lose any seats from UP and other core states.

Also another thing is, all the hate commies and congis spewing day and night had backfired. It became them vs us. Modiji became even more popular now. Even in states like AP, modiji has silent support. The psyops backfired. Only votes opposition will get for sure are hardcore anti-modi votes.

UB saar, let's go all out. If Modiji loses, we will be in big depression anyway. Getting numbers wrong will be our last worry by the time..

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:11

Indian Today (For BJP)

WB >> 19-23 out of 42 (TMC 19-22)

Outstanding!

Vote share TMC [41 (+1); BJP [41 (+24)]; Left [5]; CON [7]

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7499
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 May 2019 20:16

syam wrote:op Balakot , 6k money kisan scheme and reservation negated whatever bad press modiji had in his strongholds. I don't think they will lose any seats from UP and other core states.

Also another thing is, all the hate commies and congis spewing day and night had backfired. It became them vs us. Modiji became even more popular now. Even in states like AP, modiji has silent support. The psyops backfired. Only votes opposition will get for sure are hardcore anti-modi votes.

UB saar, let's go all out. If Modiji loses, we will be in big depression anyway. Getting numbers wrong will be our last worry by the time..


BJP will lose onlee. :(( :(( :((
RaGa will be PM and Mamta DiDi will be HM.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:17

Bad news in TN: DMK-Cong sweeps? Hope this exit poll is wrong.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7499
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 May 2019 20:20

pankajs wrote:Karnataka government will not survive this Tsunamo ... Nor Rajasthan and MP.


Exactly. MLAs will begin defections in early June.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:21

Indian Today (For BJP)

Bihar >> 38-40 out of 40 (MGB 0-2) => Clean sweep

Outstanding! No Shotgun; No Tudke Tukde gang; No Kirti Azad

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:24

TIMES NOW sample size is 40,000. 4E04. yeah, yeah, you can do all sorts of statistical mumbo jumbo but electorate is 900 million. 9E8. Victory margin in each constituency is maybe 2% - 5%.

So their exit poll has the same danger as HiC's in 2016. Indian system is more robust than the US Electoral College mumbo-jumbo, but Indian elections have 3 or more viable candidates in each constituency. So exit polls (hu u voted 4?) are meaningless.

UBCN's AI-based (since we ain't got no NI) Sentiment-Sensor Modeling Technique (SSMT) algorithm, however, has no such weakness. Our model is continuously adjusted to reflect all news that we get. So to the extent that we are given the news, we model how that will affect the SENTIMENT of individual voters. This is super-accurate. We model how EVERY voter WOULD HAVE voted, and disregard how a tiny sample SAY they voted.

Of course if we err initially it is because we were not given the full news. Or that the voter didn't get the news. Never our fault. :(( But we will fix that in our Corrector Step. :mrgreen:
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 May 2019 20:28, edited 2 times in total.

CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6265
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby CRamS » 19 May 2019 20:25

Guys, UP seems a bit of a challenge for BJP, at least according to Yeshwant Deshmukh of C-voter. Hope he is wrong:-). I want YogiJi to reign big

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4339
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 19 May 2019 20:27

UlanBatori wrote:Bad news in TN: DMK-Cong sweeps? Hope this exit poll is wrong.


c voter and jan ki baat are giving 10 which itself is a miracle according to them.
India today is giving them 5.

Atmavik
BRFite
Posts: 591
Joined: 24 Aug 2016 04:43

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Atmavik » 19 May 2019 20:28

UlanBatori wrote:TIMES NOW sample size is 40,000. 4E04. yeah, yeah, you can do all sorts of statistical mumbo jumbo but electorate is 900 million. 9E8. Victory margin in each constituency is maybe 2% - 5%.

So their exit poll has the same danger as HiC's in 2016. Indian system is more robust than the US Electoral College mumbo-jumbo, but Indian elections have 3 or more viable candidates in each constituency. So exit polls (hu u voted 4?) are meaningless.

UBCN's AI-based (since we ain't got no NI) Sentiment-Sensor Modeling Technique (SSMT) algorithm, however, has no such weakness. Our model is continuously adjusted to reflect all news that we get. So to the extent that we are given the news, we model how that will affect the SENTIMENT of individual voters. This is super-accurate. Of course if we err initially it is because we were not given the full news. Or that the voter didn't get the news. Never our fault. :(( But we will fix that in our Corrector Step. :mrgreen:


Is it AI based or AL based like AL-jazeeee.... ?

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:28

Mort Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:Karnataka government will not survive this Tsunamo ... Nor Rajasthan and MP.


Exactly. MLAs will begin defections in early June.

Just now Rajdeep made the same point.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:29

The "A" is whatever you want it to be. BTW, in TN, post MGR& JL, I guess there is no Divine Figure. Match between unknown bureaucrats (Palaniappan?) and experienced goons (Stalin?Pol Pot?) and "INC" which means "Evangelists".
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 May 2019 20:31, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:30

Indian Today (For BJP)

Jarkhand >> 12-14 out of 14 (CON 0-2) => Clean sweep

abhik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2435
Joined: 02 Feb 2009 17:42

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhik » 19 May 2019 20:30

Aaj Tak/India Today numbers looks like might give Dr. PP a run for his money, predicting 304-344 out of 479; 62-68 in UP.
Last edited by abhik on 19 May 2019 20:32, edited 2 times in total.

williams
BRFite
Posts: 321
Joined: 21 Jun 2006 20:55

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby williams » 19 May 2019 20:31

I don't know if I am dreaming but even TN averages 10 seats for NDA. Modi wave has reached the south is probably the explanation.

vimal
BRFite
Posts: 191
Joined: 27 Jul 2017 10:32

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby vimal » 19 May 2019 20:32

While we are watching results that mudi guy is enjoying in hill station. Waste fellow!

Lalu is the next PM.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:35

Jihaibibiji's "mind" works in wonderful ways:
I don’t trust #ExitPoll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of #EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together: @MamataOfficial


She is giving the order through that tweet.

IANS Tweets
‏Verified account @ians_india
#Punjab Chief Minister #AmarinderSingh on May 19 rejected the various #ExitPolls , saying their accuracy was suspect and he expected the #Congress to do much better both at the national level and in the state.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 May 2019 20:38, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:36

Indian Today (For BJP)

Orissa >> 15-19 out of 21 (Naveen 2-6)

Outstanding!

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 561
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 19 May 2019 20:39

Despite all these boll results, I think NDA will lose. :(( :((

UPA and others will cobble a goremint. Urmila Matondkar will be seen as the "most acceptable face" (literally) and will become PM. To counter this, Hema Malini will be chosen the leader of opposition.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 19 May 2019 20:39, edited 1 time in total.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:39

UlanBatori wrote:Jihaibibiji's "mind" works in wonderful ways:
I don’t trust #ExitPoll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of #EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together: @MamataOfficial


She is giving the order through that tweet.

IANS Tweets
‏Verified account @ians_india
#Punjab Chief Minister #AmarinderSingh on May 19 rejected the various #ExitPolls , saying their accuracy was suspect and he expected the #Congress to do much better both at the national level and in the state.

Our pappu uwach >> Rahul Gandhi says EC's 'capitulation before Modi and gang' obvious to all

YumKay
BRFite
Posts: 105
Joined: 27 Apr 2019 03:44

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby YumKay » 19 May 2019 20:42

Today in early evening moon was especially red, some ones dreams have shattered. Sweet dreams Durkha, turdesai et al.
On 23 unfortunately I will miss the excitement of results as I have unavoidable duty elsewhere, boohoooo.
For me today itself is 23rd.

Rajesh_MR
BRFite
Posts: 121
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Rajesh_MR » 19 May 2019 20:42

Woke up and started seeing all exit polls. Mudi will loose only :(( :(( :((

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:43

India Today
Exit poll West Bengal: BJP springs big surprise on Didi
The BJP may just have cracked open the formula to winning over Bengali votes. It looks like it will be neck and neck fight between the TMC and the BJP with 19-22 seats for Mamata Banerjee and 19-23 seats for the Modi government.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12657
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 May 2019 20:43

Supratik wrote:Australia just got all its opinion polls and exit polls wrong. So wait for May 23.

And the Australian elections has 7 million total votes with the difference between winner and loser being just 30000 votes. Further, Australia voted back in the Conservatives.

The bottom line is that they had a close election and that polls recently have repeatedly underestimated a conservative sentiment (US, Australia, various European countries) because the center-left media voice is louder than center right .

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:44

Indian Today (For BJP)

Assam >> 12-14 out of 14 => Clean sweep

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:44

UBCN flash:
Yeti sighting was because 52-inch chested Modiji's Size 34-foot bro came visiting from Jupiter. Explains Modiji's sudden trip to Himalayas.

Serious: IndiaTodin flashing 271-298 out of 451 for EnnDeeAy. Which works out to 284.5 average. So we are upping our prediction to NDA:341

Modi will lose onlee :((
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 May 2019 20:49, edited 1 time in total.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4339
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 19 May 2019 20:45

India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:46

Indian Today (For BJP)

Arunachal >> 2 out of 2

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:46

Indian Today (For BJP)

Tripura >> 2 out of 2
Manipur >> 2 out of 2

YumKay
BRFite
Posts: 105
Joined: 27 Apr 2019 03:44

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby YumKay » 19 May 2019 20:48

BJP will surely lose.
Pappu will be pm.
Never say die

KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 561
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 19 May 2019 20:50

*Ornob is grinning from ear to ear all day. He is looking forward to another 5 years of TRP. The fellows on NDTV seem to have long faces. Srinivasan Jain has the JBF look. Saggy and Needy still banking on the Australian polls. :mrgreen:
Last edited by KL Dubey on 19 May 2019 20:51, edited 1 time in total.

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6304
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 19 May 2019 20:50

Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11067
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 20:50

Indian Today (For BJP)

UP >> Vote share BJP [48 (+4)], MBG (39 (-4)], CON [8(0)], OTH [5(0)]
Last edited by pankajs on 19 May 2019 20:51, edited 1 time in total.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11367
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 19 May 2019 20:51

hanumadu wrote:India-Today - AxisMyIndia 12-14 to BJP
Assam has only 14 seats and 3 are muslim majority.
HBS himself is giving 9-11 to BJP.
This India-Today poll is suspect.

Good point, but Muslim Assamese are probably not against expelling more recent BD arrivals and see NDA as best bet for development. Being majority they have no fear of yindootva agenda in their locality.

Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6304
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 19 May 2019 20:52

We need a liberal dose of anti-jinx from now on. BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2925
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby fanne » 19 May 2019 20:52

wohoo dilbu is back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3698
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hnair » 19 May 2019 20:53

Dilbu wrote:We need a liberal dose of anti-jinx from now on. BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((



:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Dramatic entrance....... dude, check your email.... must be full

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12657
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 19 May 2019 20:53

Dilbu wrote:Lungi uthao zor se shiver karo aur bolo.
BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

ADMINS! Ban this late Latif!

PS : welcome back . No one can save you from the barrage of chappals coming your way :)


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Balaji, deejay, Indrajit, rohiths, Vips and 62 guests