2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sachin » 22 May 2019 13:35

Sridhar K wrote:Chatter among some of the faithful by tying up some recent developments like Ambani withdrawal, CBi clean chit to SP, Satta bazzar prediction, NDA dinner invite, Nitish utterances is that BJP will get around 250 odd and will need to keep the NDA allies in fold to ensure 272 plus.

nachiket wrote:The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them.

Tend to agree with you. This over-joy over the exit polls looked all fine and dandy for the first few hours. But now looks like it may not really be the case. The main stream media in this case would only be too happy to say that their exit polls were incorrect, because their ultimate aim was to bring a "secular" government. I too feel BJP would be float around 250 and would have to take help from the allies. In a way the dinner invite was good; BJP themselves are not getting over confident and trying to dispense away with the allies.

The "secular" camp has certainly not given up, and they also have not taken the exit polls as God's words (which is good). And they have been trying all games in the book to make a come back. Yesterday's meeting with Election Commission was also a kind of bulleying tactic. My gut feeling is that if things are not going their preferred way; the "secular" riff-raffs are going to use every tactic, blaming EVMs, running away with VVPAT slips, bad mouthing EC and even giving court cases. They would make every attempt to delay the whole process, and given a chance even the swearing in of the next government.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 22 May 2019 13:50

Karan M wrote:So the 7 decade long left-INC project to have Indians become a mix of deracinated wogs acting like brown sahibs, and be caught up in their nice little caste buckets is being sabotaged by the rise of a counter....



Few points Brihaspati ji used to make:

1. Next Dharmic-Rashtriya movement will start from Andhra-Tamil-Bengal as these have been first and longest to move away so intense pendulum swing to start from these 3 ...

2. UPA winning even 2014 and 2019 would make Dharmic-Nationalist movement even faster as Communal Violence Bill and Sadhvi Pragya and Col. Purohit type incidents will compound and that will awaken 'The Nationalist' in sleeping ones.

According to him BJP forming govt may fizzle out the Hindu jaagran phenomenon...

Although I am not able to understand the depth of it, always seems too scary for me with rahul ram rajan, NAC with harsh mandar, kavita krishnan & shabnam azmi types firing on all cylinders belching out dozens of Communal violence Bill's type in dozens.... :shock:

That's why they also want mamta to win another term so Pendulum movement for Hindus will be intense not half hearted.....

But RamaY ji had some wise counters too giving examples of Bengali leadership in last 250 years....

Unfortunately he is banned from here, bharatganrajya & Twitter too ... :cry:

His post on Modi breaching 7 layered fortification of BIF was awesome.... eye opening.
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 22 May 2019 14:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby BhairavP » 22 May 2019 13:57

sudhan wrote:Anil Ambani has withdrawn his defamation suit against Buddhu and Congoons..

Wonder whats up with that


Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 14:05

BhairavP wrote:
sudhan wrote:Anil Ambani has withdrawn his defamation suit against Buddhu and Congoons..

Wonder whats up with that


Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.

Kem chho Bhairav bhai, haven't seen you in a while.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby BhairavP » 22 May 2019 14:11

nachiket wrote:
BhairavP wrote:
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.

Kem chho Bhairav bhai, haven't seen you in a while.


Ekdum majaama :) . Been busy but good to catch up with BRF - been lurking the last 2 days.
Eagerly looking forward to the results tomorrow.. I really want Milind Deora to lose in my constituency.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 14:13

I'm eagerly watching Deora's seat as well. We need an NDA sweep in Mumbai.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 14:21

my prediction - MGB and CBN are heading for a thrashing. hence the huge noises, threats and kabila mobilization.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby kittoo » 22 May 2019 14:25

I know this is me being pessimistic second time here but i am seriously worried about tomorrow. The opposite side has not given up and this CBI thing, ambani dropping the case, nitish uvaach etc do have me worried. Hope we dont pull an Australia tomorrow.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 14:26

What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby jaysimha » 22 May 2019 14:28

Election Commission
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A 24 hour EVM Control Room has been made functional at Nirvachan Sadan to monitor complaints relating to polled EVMs. The complaints related to storage issues at strongrooms, security of strongrooms, permissions to candidates to post their agents at strongrooms, cctv monitoring, movement of any EVMs, and any complaints during counting related to EVMs can be informed at control room number is 011-23052123 (with 5 hunting lines).
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 14:34

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shaktimaan » 22 May 2019 14:36

I remember Singha saar's amazing posts depicting the election as a battle with Generals Modi and Shah leading the soldiers. He published it as a muti-part series around the 2014 LS elections.

Saar, yeh dil maange more...

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudhan » 22 May 2019 14:37

nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?


I think he said something about special status for Bihar.. Not sure it amounts to a threat

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shaktimaan » 22 May 2019 14:37

nachiket wrote:I'm eagerly watching Deora's seat as well. We need an NDA sweep in Mumbai.


Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudhan » 22 May 2019 14:38

BhairavP wrote:
sudhan wrote:Anil Ambani has withdrawn his defamation suit against Buddhu and Congoons..

Wonder whats up with that


Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.


In that case, I am happy.. Chaturvedi has happily eaten crow soup and moved out of the Concroach system.. we could let her be..

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 14:43

Shaktimaan wrote:
nachiket wrote:I'm eagerly watching Deora's seat as well. We need an NDA sweep in Mumbai.


Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.

That is my chaiwallah info as well unfortunately. BJP will lose onlee :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 14:45

sudhan wrote:
nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?


I think he said something about special status for Bihar.. Not sure it amounts to a threat

First AP and now Bihar. If everyone is given special status then no state will be special anymore. :lol:

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sridhar K » 22 May 2019 15:05

nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?

httpss://twitter.com/ANI/status/1130746767740350465?s=19

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 15:11

nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?


just that sadhvi's godse statement is not acceptable.
when namo himself said he will not forgive her for it, is this worth shivering about it.
both JDU and SS supremos came to dinner last night.
SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 15:18

Singha wrote:SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.

This actually shows some urgency and perhaps uneasiness on AS's part that he really wanted to made sure SS and NK showed up instead of their representatives. Not a good sign. If he was fairly confident, this whole dinner could have been done after 23rd.

Yashwant Deshmukh said on one of the shows that his (CVoter) exit poll actually gives a higher vote share to BJP in UP than the India Today- Axis one. However what they found was that in the seats BJP was winning they were doing it by huge margins while the MGB was winning seats by a smaller one. This translated into less seats for the BJP than the MGB despite a higher vote share. Another reason to dhoti shiver IMHO. This whole thing still hinges on UP despite the expected gains in Odisha and WB.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 15:26

SS has always been a problematic NDA member due to their supremos periodic tirades against AS and NM. its important to meet such satraps face to face to gauge intent.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 15:28

nachiket wrote:
Singha wrote:SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.

This actually shows some urgency and perhaps uneasiness on AS's part that he really wanted to made sure SS and NK showed up instead of their representatives. Not a good sign. If he was fairly confident, this whole dinner could have been done after 23rd.

Yashwant Deshmukh said on one of the shows that his (CVoter) exit poll actually gives a higher vote share to BJP in UP than the India Today- Axis one. However what they found was that in the seats BJP was winning they were doing it by huge margins while the MGB was winning seats by a smaller one. This translated into less seats for the BJP than the MGB despite a higher vote share. Another reason to dhoti shiver IMHO. This whole thing still hinges on UP despite the expected gains in Odisha and WB.


his ABP-Cvoter is the only exit poll not giving a majority to the NDA. so tomorrow he will be either be hero or zero - atleast he made his stand clear just as PP/Chintamani did on other end.

The ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may fall short of the majority mark of 272 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA is predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA is predicted to settle for 167 seats. The BJP alone is expected to bag 203 seats, while the Congress alone is expected to bag 109.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... ns-updates
Copyright © BloombergQuint

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 15:30

Cvoter is actually giving the NDA a majority. ABP poll was with Nielsen who came up with the 267 figure. Quint has them confused.

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suraj » 22 May 2019 15:35

nachiket wrote:The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them.

NDA will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

The dinner is smart politics . If the BJP comfortably makes majority, the allies depend on dinner to seek continued favor within NDA. If the BJP needs allies to form government, the dinner serves to make agreements . Either way the BJP has some control over the alliance.

Not keeping the alliance together ahead of the result is misguided bravado . The allies would matter if for example they are needed to achieve 2/3rd majority even if the BJP otherwise has a parliamentary majority .

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Manish_Sharma » 22 May 2019 15:37

I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby dipak » 22 May 2019 15:38

pankajs wrote:The headline is clearly mischievous but to be expected from "The Hindu" and the authors. Still one can glean some useful data even from such notes.
.
.
https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok- ... 199617.ece
North, South clearly divided over giving another chance to Modi
An important indicator of the popularity of an incumbent government is the intensity of the voters’ desire to give it a second chance. Across the Hindi heartland and States of the West, the desire to give the Modi-led BJP government a second chance is extremely high.Positive data for the future.

Going by the headline, what about the east and west of India ...? The author should also include these remaining two as well.
So, by the logic - north, east and west seems to bring back Modi which is 75% success rate.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 22 May 2019 15:39

Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.


BJP 240 is surely calling for trouble for NM as PM.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudhan » 22 May 2019 15:42

sudhan wrote:
BhairavP wrote:
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.


In that case, I am happy.. Chaturvedi has happily eaten crow soup and moved out of the Concroach system.. we could let her be..


TOI has published a fact check article.. and has confirmed that the lawsuit has been withdrawn against all parties..

That is disappointing

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nachiket » 22 May 2019 15:44

Karthik S wrote:
BJP 240 is surely calling for trouble for NM as PM.

Why? 240 should be ok. NDA will cross 272 with BJP at 240. Single party getting 240 used to be a massive victory in India for a long time. It is only 2014 that changed our expectations. During NDA-1 BJP only had 182 seats by comparison. Congress had only 206 in 2009, and that was called a strong mandate.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 22 May 2019 15:52

According to discussions on some news channel (Republic perhaps), all surveys try to error correct responses by posing questions that will bring out incongruity in responses if the voter is lying. I don't know what others follow, but ABP Neilsen asked them what party they voted in 2014 and if it was not BJP, they discounted the responses that voted BJP in 2019. Though there may be some merit in such a approach, it looks too simple to me.

Axis exit poll claims to have surveyed in all seats totalling 8 lakhs. That's 1400 per seat. Is it by itself a good sample size for around 10 lakh votes/seat and is enough to provide an accurate picture for the seat or do they still have to combine it with other seats with similar demographics and/or the entire state?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby BhairavP » 22 May 2019 15:54

nachiket wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:
Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.

That is my chaiwallah info as well unfortunately. BJP will lose onlee :(( :((


SS actually. Not BJP, but your point stands.
I'm hearing the opposite from the constituency - large scale Gujju polarisation toward the SS (hold nose and vote for NaMo). Malabar Hill/Walkeshwar turnout was high (Gujju/Marwari bastion), while Mumbadevi and Colaba were lower (some peacefuls and ROLers also).
Let's see tomorrow.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 16:01

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karthik S » 22 May 2019 16:03

nachiket wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
BJP 240 is surely calling for trouble for NM as PM.

Why? 240 should be ok. NDA will cross 272 with BJP at 240. Single party getting 240 used to be a massive victory in India for a long time. It is only 2014 that changed our expectations. During NDA-1 BJP only had 182 seats by comparison. Congress had only 206 in 2009, and that was called a strong mandate.


You missed the point, NDA can form govt., I am talking about NM. How many party chiefs in NDA would want NM to go?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Shaktimaan » 22 May 2019 16:07

Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.


Saar, Yogendra "Salim" Yadav predicted in November 2018 that the BJP is going to lose 100 seats from their 2014 tally.

https://theprint.in/opinion/hindi-heart ... in/147096/

It's clear that he doesn't know anything and has no real insight to offer. Best to ignore him.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Sachin » 22 May 2019 16:44

EC turns down oppn plea to count VVPAT slips first. So leads, I guess should be coming out faster.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby anishns » 22 May 2019 16:46

Pappu will be PM onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Suresh S » 22 May 2019 16:47

Mein Narender Damodardas Modi ishwar Ke sapath leta Hun Ke ----. Goosebumps time.


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2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Peregrine » 22 May 2019 16:48

On TVs inPakistan: Whypeople don’t want PM Narendra Modi to return Yudhvir Rana – TNN

AMRITSAR: The outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls on May 23 is being watched with great keenness in neighbouring Pakistan. The interest in Pakistan is not surprising given the cross-border tension between the two countries and that many people in that country have familial links in India.

Presumably panicked by the Indian Air Force’s surgical strikes on terror camps inside Pakistan, most Pakistani nationals are voicing in interviews on social media their reservations about the return of an NDA government led by Narendra Modi.

“He shouldn’t come to power, he carried out surgical attacks in Pakistan..., ” Shahi Alam, a Lahorite, told a Pakistan TV channel.

Another person, Aizaz, added, “I doubt Modi will come back with a majority. I am sure he will get a fractured mandate and that is good for Pakistan.”

Some months ago, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had said there may be a better chance of peace talks with India if Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Riaz, a London-based Pakistan businessman, told TOI over the phone: “People living in Pakistan have different views from those of Pakistanis living abroad. We are of the view that Modi should come back to power in India. At least it will act as a deterrent to terrorist organisations operating from Pakistani soil and pressure the Pakistan government to eradicate terrorism from our motherland.”

Cheers Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 22 May 2019 16:51

Shaktimaan wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.


Saar, Yogendra "Salim" Yadav predicted in November 2018 that the BJP is going to lose 100 seats from their 2014 tally.

https://theprint.in/opinion/hindi-heart ... in/147096/

It's clear that he doesn't know anything and has no real insight to offer. Best to ignore him.


I am not a fan of Yogi Yadav by any means, but in Nov 2018 all pollsters were predicting the same thing...before the election season there is always a dull period. After that NaMo changed the game with Balakot, new DBT schemes etc. I watched the whole interview yesterday, and for the most part he sounded quite sensible and patient with the interviewer. Too bad he is far gone into the dark side.


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