2019 General Elections News and Discussion

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KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 22 May 2019 16:56

nachiket wrote:Cvoter is actually giving the NDA a majority. ABP poll was with Nielsen who came up with the 267 figure. Quint has them confused.

Image



That chart is outdated. ABP-Nielsen updated their poll to 277. Wikipedia has the up to date summary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indi ... Exit_polls

The only poll predicting bad news for NDA is the "NewsX-Neta" poll. I am not sure how credible that poll is, especially considering this agency did not do a single opinion poll in the four months prior to the election. I have also never seen any election poll from them before (correct me if they have done polls before).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 16:58

Sachin wrote:EC turns down oppn plea to count VVPAT slips first. So leads, I guess should be coming out faster.

This is right and was to be expected. Why should the EC change the rules at the end of a contest without any verifiable fact?

If anyone has a brighter idea on the process/conduct they should get the ECs attention right at the beginning of the whole exercise.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby KL Dubey » 22 May 2019 17:06

Singha wrote:his ABP-Cvoter is the only exit poll not giving a majority to the NDA. so tomorrow he will be either be hero or zero - atleast he made his stand clear just as PP/Chintamani did on other end.

The ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may fall short of the majority mark of 272 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA is predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA is predicted to settle for 167 seats. The BJP alone is expected to bag 203 seats, while the Congress alone is expected to bag 109.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... ns-updates
Copyright © BloombergQuint


^^^This is an old poll from Jan 2019. Deshmukh is also predicting NDA win in his exit poll.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudhan » 22 May 2019 17:08

BJP will lose onlee :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Primus » 22 May 2019 17:14

banrjeer wrote:the rural voter cared to talk about international standing is TREMENDOUS.
I saw some of those clips.

It's not so much whether the standing has improved but the fact that the voter has even cared to bring it up.... It speaks volumes. After that it's only a matter of time the standing rises.

Only a Chaiwala could do it.


There were so many priceless gems in these interviews and news clips during this election cycle. Especially moving was the old man who stated quite astutely that there is something wrong with RaGa mentally. Then there were the old women from Haryana who also mentioned India's standing in the world. There is no doubt that the people have woken up and this is an unstoppable force to reckon with. No matter what happens tomorrow, rural India is a changed place forever.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 22 May 2019 17:55

nachiket wrote:
Singha wrote:SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.

This actually shows some urgency and perhaps uneasiness on AS's part that he really wanted to made sure SS and NK showed up instead of their representatives. Not a good sign. If he was fairly confident, this whole dinner could have been done after 23rd.

Yashwant Deshmukh said on one of the shows that his (CVoter) exit poll actually gives a higher vote share to BJP in UP than the India Today- Axis one. However what they found was that in the seats BJP was winning they were doing it by huge margins while the MGB was winning seats by a smaller one. This translated into less seats for the BJP than the MGB despite a higher vote share. Another reason to dhoti shiver IMHO. This whole thing still hinges on UP despite the expected gains in Odisha and WB.


This is true. It will take a lot of more seats to win at lower margin to even match margin of one huge winning seat like Varanasi. It takes 7 wins of 52%:48% margin to match a single 65%:35% win, i.e 7:1 winning seats with ~50%:50% vote-share, i.e. you can't truly split seats to middle based on same overall vote shares.

This is where many surveys go wrong if they don't do micro surveys and data analysis constituency-wise.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby dipak » 22 May 2019 18:02

Peregrine wrote:On TVs inPakistan: Whypeople don’t want PM Narendra Modi to return Yudhvir Rana – TNN

AMRITSAR: The outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls on May 23 is being watched with great keenness in neighbouring Pakistan. The interest in Pakistan is not surprising given the cross-border tension between the two countries and that many people in that country have familial links in India.

Presumably panicked by the Indian Air Force’s surgical strikes on terror camps inside Pakistan, most Pakistani nationals are voicing in interviews on social media their reservations about the return of an NDA government led by Narendra Modi.

“He shouldn’t come to power, he carried out surgical attacks in Pakistan..., ” Shahi Alam, a Lahorite, told a Pakistan TV channel.

Another person, Aizaz, added, “I doubt Modi will come back with a majority. I am sure he will get a fractured mandate and that is good for Pakistan.”

Shahi Alam and his ilk have no reason to worry from Modi, for the surgical strikes Modi carries either are fictional (Uri) or these uproot few trees at max.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Nsmith » 22 May 2019 18:06

This is entertaining. The khujli is palpable:

My dad called me khan market gang member

To be fair, I've had heated discussions with family, friends, college mates and office colleagues right from early part of this decade - first for supporting NaMo pre 2013 and then for calling out AAP... Vividly remember how we chided a cousin for donating money to kejriwal before the Delhi 2015 elections... Earlier it used to be the right wingers who were lampooned. Chaddi wallah. Nazi. A blot on Indian plurality. Supporter of brahminical tyranny. Insert-fav-cuss word.

The chappal is clearly on the other foot now and the fiberals are flabbergasted. :lol:

But they don't need to bother much, cuz tomorrow BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( Raul Baba will be PM onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby salaam » 22 May 2019 18:08

MHA issues alert to states over possible violence on counting day
https://twitter.com/indiatoday/status/1 ... 03808?s=21

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby UlanBatori » 22 May 2019 18:21

Think ahead, ppl.
We need a Howlometer. I mean HOWL-o. Not How lo.
Many articles will need categorizing between Gloating, Braying, Barking, Howling and Whining.
With appropriate animal faces.


For a moment i thought HOWLa meter :)

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 22 May 2019 18:35

BhairavP wrote:
nachiket wrote:Kem chho Bhairav bhai, haven't seen you in a while.


Ekdum majaama :) . Been busy but good to catch up with BRF - been lurking the last 2 days.
Eagerly looking forward to the results tomorrow.. I really want Milind Deora to lose in my constituency.

Every single townie I (personally) know has voted for Deora. :oops: A couple of them were even in his stupid video. :roll:
Byculla and Mumbadevi are peaceful strongholds, hence likely tilting towards Congoons. Will have to see how the Walkeshwar/Breach Candy/Malabar Hill trader block has voted.
Modijee will lose onlee! :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ranarasika » 22 May 2019 18:41

First Ambani and now Adani. What's going on? Why now?

3:35 AM - 22 May 2019
@ians_india
Follow Follow @ians_india
More
The #AdaniGroup is set to withdraw all #Defamation suits filed against news portal http://thewire.in and its editors in an #Ahmedabad court for articles against its companies, highly placed sources said.

4:49 AM - 22 May 2019
@rohini_sgh (2BHK Akal-less fame)
Follow Follow @rohini_sgh
More Rohini Singh Retweeted IANS Tweets
The Adani group is all set to withdraw all civil and criminal defamation suits filed in Ahmedabad against @thewire_in and it’s editors and staff.


Digging further ...

July 27, 2018
https://scroll.in/latest/888291/gujarat ... dani-group

July 28, 2018
https://thelogicalindian.com/legal/adan ... -epw-wire/

The current order came as the judge noticed there was not enough verifiable evidence supporting these claims.

The court also observed that the article was written after a questionnaire was sent to the Adani Group before it was published. The article was written based on the material available. Hence the article “cannot be said to be defamatory”, and hence “there is no prima facie case.”

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 18:45

Kanchan Gupta Verified account @KanchanGupta 18h18 hours ago

Here's why those who cannot win a free and fair election conducted through #EVMs want ballot papers and ballot boxes back. Please share freely so people of #India know the truth since doormat #media won't tell this story.
(Pix of #WestBengal panchayat polls in May 2018.)


Image Image
Image
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chetak
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 18:48

Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby abhijitm » 22 May 2019 18:51

KL Dubey wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:
Saar, Yogendra "Salim" Yadav predicted in November 2018 that the BJP is going to lose 100 seats from their 2014 tally.

https://theprint.in/opinion/hindi-heart ... in/147096/

It's clear that he doesn't know anything and has no real insight to offer. Best to ignore him.


I am not a fan of Yogi Yadav by any means, but in Nov 2018 all pollsters were predicting the same thing...before the election season there is always a dull period. After that NaMo changed the game with Balakot, new DBT schemes etc. I watched the whole interview yesterday, and for the most part he sounded quite sensible and patient with the interviewer. Too bad he is far gone into the dark side.

That guy is "democracy in danger. Secularism in danger" gang founder member. He belongs to schizophrenic breed who lives in delusion of "i know everything, I am better than you all, i am never wrong"

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby arshyam » 22 May 2019 19:00

chetak wrote:X posted from the other forum Thanks to tajmahal321 who posted this there



Here's another that I came across on OpIndia: IIT graduate and an IAS officer explains in detail why EVMs can’t be ‘hacked’ or ‘tampered’ with.

This was originally posted on Quora: Can the EVM machines used for Indian elections be hacked/tampered?

It's a long read, but very detailed and fully worth the time.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 19:02

Break-in at IAF's Paris Office, Which Oversees the Manufacture of Rafale Jets, Says Report
No document and data were stolen, according to reports, and the Defence Ministry has also been briefed about the incident.

News18.comUpdated:May 22, 2019, 5:52 PM IST facebookTwittergoogleskype

Break-in at IAF's Paris Office, Which Oversees the Manufacture of Rafale Jets, Says Report Representative image

New Delhi: In a possible espionage attempt, unidentified persons on Sunday broke into the Indian Air Force Rafale project team office in Paris, which is overseeing the manufacture of the 36 Rafale fighter jets as a part of the deal between India and France.

The break-in at the project management team office, which is located in the Saint Cloud suburb of Paris, took place on Sunday night.

"No hard disk or document has been stolen. More details are being ascertained about the motive," news agency ANI quoted sources as saying.

French police authorities are now investigating the case. According to the ANI report, the Defence Ministry has also been brief on the matter.

The project management team is headed by a Group Captain-ranked IAF officer.

The Rafale deal has been at the centre of many a conflict between the Congress and the BJP, with Rahul Gandhi levelling several allegations against PM Mod

============
CHEEN PAK combo, trying to find classified info esp on india specific mods.

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2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Peregrine » 22 May 2019 19:03

Breather for Congress - JD(S), BJP puts operation Lotus ‘on hold’ - TNN

BENGALURU: The JD(S)- Congress alliance in Karnataka can heave a sigh of relief as the BJP unit here has “temporarily suspended” its Operation Lotus aimed at toppling the coalition government in the state.

BJP sources said the central leadership has asked state party chief BS Yeddyuyrappa to wait for the outcome of the bid to topple the Kamal Nath-led Congress government in Madhya Pradesh.

Boosted by favourable exit polls predictions, Yeddyurappa was preparing the ground to make a fresh bid to topple the coalition government in Karnataka. He’s been reportedly forced to suspend the operation for now.

Image

According to party insiders, around 10 legislators — seven from Congress and three from JD(S) — were ready to jump ship soon after the poll results on May 23.

With the party leadership putting the operation on hold, disgruntled Congress and JD(S) MLAs are reportedly in two minds. They believe the delay will harm their prospects of winning by-polls.

Some legislators are even doubting their future in the BJP following reports that Yeddyurappa may be replaced as party chief if NDA returns to power at the Centre, which looks increasingly likely.

However, sources close to Yeddyurappa rubbished the speculation. “Wait and see what happens after the results are announced.”

Cheers Image

Singha
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Singha » 22 May 2019 19:04

BSY is the veteran of many a failed munich bier hall putsch :rotfl:

need a fresh warrior to lead the troops here.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Ardeshir » 22 May 2019 19:07

Singha wrote:CHEEN PAK combo, trying to find classified info esp on india specific mods.

I wouldn't put it past The Liar and Photoshop Bhushan and party to try and pull something like this.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby chetak » 22 May 2019 19:07

abhijitm wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
I am not a fan of Yogi Yadav by any means, but in Nov 2018 all pollsters were predicting the same thing...before the election season there is always a dull period. After that NaMo changed the game with Balakot, new DBT schemes etc. I watched the whole interview yesterday, and for the most part he sounded quite sensible and patient with the interviewer. Too bad he is far gone into the dark side.

That guy is "democracy in danger. Secularism in danger" gang founder member. He belongs to schizophrenic breed who lives in delusion of "i know everything, I am better than you all, i am never wrong"


he thought that he was going to be made the CM of haryana during the paapi wave which hit dilli. his overarching ambition and poisonous agenda put off even a crook like khujliwal who promptly kicked him out.

since then, he has been surviving on the meagre scraps from the congi table when they remember to throw him some.

he has been starving for the last five years and the prospect of another five years of enforced hunger and financial famine has unnerved him completely.

also, his family has some serious IT and maybe ED cases filed against them for running a hospital somewhere and not paying taxes.

all in all, a pretty bleak future for him to look forward to and hence the loud randi rhona.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 19:11

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby suryag » 22 May 2019 19:13

four astrologers including one gold medalist grade saying NDA will not make it

amdavadi
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby amdavadi » 22 May 2019 19:24

Bjp - 2
Nda -10
Raga - 420
Jihadidi - 42
Thugbandhan - 79

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sajo21 » 22 May 2019 19:24

suryag wrote:four astrologers including one gold medalist grade saying NDA will not make it


Sent me into a dhoti shredding shivering spree.......

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((


...until I read this.

Thinking of gathering my like minded friends and cousins to have a rudali party tomorrow.
After an exhaustive 2 second research involving my workplace voters, most of them seemed pretty sure of NaMo 2.0, wish I could share their confidence.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Dilbu » 22 May 2019 19:32

Time for katyusha salvos now. BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby AshishAcharya » 22 May 2019 19:37

BJP will lose onleee :(( :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby darshan » 22 May 2019 19:38

Ardeshir wrote:
Singha wrote:CHEEN PAK combo, trying to find classified info esp on india specific mods.

I wouldn't put it past The Liar and Photoshop Bhushan and party to try and pull something like this.

Possible. I see it as that this is what real patriotic governance looks like that the enemies whether internal or external have to go through these routes now to get information instead of just making calls to their agents.

Opindia link:
https://www.opindia.com/2019/05/breakin ... is-suburb/

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2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Peregrine » 22 May 2019 19:46

Lok Sabha Results 2019: How to track winners, losers and all other important detail in real-time

The D-day is almost here! After months of campaigning and 7 phases of polling, it's time for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections results. On May 23, votes will be counted in Tamil Nadu’s Vellore constituency was cancelled by the Election Commission. Along with elections for 542 parliamentary seats, assembly elections were also held in four states: Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunanchal Pradesh. Results for these states will also be declared tomorrow. The counting process will start at 8am at different centres across the country.

At approximately 67.11 per cent, the voter turnout in 2019 Lok Sabha elections has been the highest ever. The previous highest of 65.95 per cent was recorded in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The highest increase in voter turnout between 2014 and 2019 has been in Madhya Pradesh (71.2% from 61.61 per cent , a jump of 9.59 per cent), followed by Himachal Pradesh (71.52 per cent from 64.45 per cent).

The biggest dip in terms of turnout was in Jammu and Kashmir, which saw only 29.39 per cent polling. This is 20.33 per cent lower than 49.72 per cent voting recorded during 2014.

While TV channels will run live telecast of the election results, it is not possible for many to catch all the result-day action on TV. For the people on the move, Times of India online has a range of options to ensure that they can keep checking Lok Sabha Elections live. Readers can can track in real-time state and constituency-wise winners and losers, vote share, victory margin, detailed comparative analysis, expert views on likely government formation and a lot more:

* The big winners and losers: Check who won and lost (constituency-wise)

* Which party got how much vote share

* The numbers game: Stories that data reveals

* Victory margin of winners and losers

* Expert speak: What the experts have to say on poll results

* In-depth analysis: Detailed analysis of what the results mean for various parties

* Election 2019 videos

Cheers Image

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby deejay » 22 May 2019 19:46

General announcement: Please proceed now to buy your fill of Beer and Popcorn for tomorrow. All scotch stocks for the evening must be neatly photographed and documented (as to quantity) by today evening.

Tomorrow could be too late.

Rum Drinkers - Salut! No need to count. Just void Neat and too many Bottoms Up.

This order is issued irrespective of the party you support. Don't post on BRF after blood alcohol levels exceed driving limits. Underage Drinking is a crime. Kids stay away from ethanol formats.


All the best folks. Tomorrow is very important for 207 million bhookhey nangay Terroristanis who did not have any right to decide their future. I protest. Dharna will be scheduled infront of GHQ depending on what lies ahead.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 19:47

Tomorrow by this time the results would be known and we will have the weekend to either savor the outcome or drown our sorrows.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby pankajs » 22 May 2019 19:59

This one suits my *gut* instincts. I did eyeball their numbers for the major states and they seem reasonable and doable.

http://www.elections.in/news/chintamani ... elections/
CHINTAMANI-5DOTS EXIT POLL cum POST-POLL 2019 LOK SABHA ELECTIONS

As we wanted to bring the result to 95% confidence level, we eliminated the seats for the leading party when we felt the result was less than 25,000. This brought the UP seats down to 55, and a few other seats in other States. Thus the final result for BJP at 95% confidence level are as delineated in our final chart, i.e., 285 for BJP, and 347 for NDA. The range is kept at +/- 3%, so that we project BJP at 285 +/- 16 (269-301), and NDA at 347 +/- 17, i.e., 330-364. Similarly, Congress would be at 53 +/- 2 (51-55), and UPA at 89 +/- 3 (86-92).

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby Karan M » 22 May 2019 20:12

suryag wrote:four astrologers including one gold medalist grade saying NDA will not make it


If ppl are stupid enough to not have voted for the one PM and Govt that did all they could to improve their living standards and protect them, then they deserve what they get.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ShyamSP » 22 May 2019 20:16

Is there a way to start visible poll and have posters pre-commit to numbers instead re-posting tweets or later "I-told-you-so"s?

Only the winner predictors will have bragging rights after 23rd. :D
Last edited by ShyamSP on 22 May 2019 20:18, edited 1 time in total.

deejay
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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby deejay » 22 May 2019 20:18

ShyamSP wrote:Is there a way to start visible poll and have posters pre-commit to numbers instead re-posting tweets or later "I-told-you-so"s?


There is too much at stake. FIngers crossed. If we win, I won't mind "I told you So".

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sajo21 » 22 May 2019 20:28

deejay wrote:There is too much at stake.


True, this result will determine whether Bharat Mata will be exploited again as she was for many years, or will a Chowkidar standing resolutely between the miscreants and Her will be allowed to do his job, to allow Mata to pick up her remnants and look ahead with dignity hitherto denied to Her.

People get the government they deserve.
Do we deserve to continue wallowing in our own miserability ?

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby shravan » 22 May 2019 20:51

deejay wrote:Tomorrow could be too late.

Rum Drinkers - Salut! No need to count. Just void Neat and too many Bottoms Up.

.



Tomorrow is a dry day.

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby sudhan » 22 May 2019 20:53

God, nerves are getting to me..

BJP will lose onlee :(( :((

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby nandakumar » 22 May 2019 20:57

shravan wrote:
deejay wrote:Tomorrow could be too late.

Rum Drinkers - Salut! No need to count. Just void Neat and too many Bottoms Up.

.



Tomorrow is a dry day.

If you have the right connections there is always a speakeasy, nearby!

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Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Postby ramana » 22 May 2019 20:59

OmkarC wrote:
ramana wrote:Folks India Today gave access to the whole AXIS poll at their site and you can go look at all the states and see how they stack up per their poll.
One thing is they categorize tough seats as those with difference of 3% and show which party is leading
for eg. TMC/BJP would mean TMC is leading in the tough seat etc.

I suggest look up Bengal, UP, and AP (Omkar et al).


I am more interested in TG.. they are giving BJP 3 seats - 2 of which are as per expectations, third is a surprise.

- Nizamabad, massive if BJP pulls this off as its against KCR's daughter, the Axis poll lists BJP/TRS as popular parties and as a tough seat. Disagree - its a very very tough seat. With >50% chance of BJP victory. The local candidate has been grooming this seat for a while, spending time with farmers, he even used his own funds to set up free medical clinics for poor children for several years now. He comes from a political family, his dad is former state congress president & now leader of TRS.. and has enough financial muscle, community support, etc. KCR's daughter apparently ignored farmer's plight for the past 5 yrs and there is serious farmer anger. Fingers crossed.

- Karimnagar, this was KCR's own seat for 3 times in a row. But somehow the local BJP candidate has managed to galvanize and build mass following among rural youth. A strong Hindutva candidate, he has had one too many verbal duels with Owaisi saab and even his house was stoned after he lost MLA elections by MIM goons a few months back. The Axis poll says its not a tough seat and he would win. I would've agreed with this exit poll if not for the money power of both the congress & TRS rivals. Kudos to Shah on studying the pulse, identifying this person & reward him with an MP seat candidature.

-The third one they predict is Adilabad, which is in the tribal belt, the local BJP candidate is a genuine tribal activist but financially weak compared to his stronger congress, TRS opponents. The exit poll mentions its a BJP vs cong fight, while my opinion its a TRS vs Cong fight. Disagree with their estimate as the party doesn't have strong cadre here like the other two.

Additionally:
-Agree w/ exit poll prediction on Secunderabad. BJP will lose their incumbent seat to TRS by a huge margin.
-Disagree with the exit poll on Mahboobnagar that predicts an easy walkover for TRS - the congress defected BJP candidate has good grip on the district and congress has a reasonable candidate as well - its a 3-way fight. BJP candidate has ~34% chance, compared to her rivals.



OmkarC, Thanks for the thoughtful commentary on teh BJP prospects.
Was in BJP WA groups during Assy elections and watched Bandi Sanjay grow in stature in Karimnagar.
Yes MIM goons attacked his house.
One blot on KCR.

Kishan Reddy did not have the stature to be selected as MP candidate in SecBad a highly urban seat. Especially after losing the MLA seat. He didn't put up much of a fight. Unlike Bandi Sanjay in Karimnagar.
We will see reshaping of the TG BJP after 23 may.


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